RE: Bid Thee Return (Full Version)

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crsutton -> RE: Bid Thee Return (6/27/2011 5:03:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Be careful of having too big a force in Sumatra, I agree hit him with a big stick but dont get caught concentrating too many of your effective LCU on the island.





Yes, the questions is do you need such a large presence on Sumatra? Or, is it simply better to build up enough perimeter air bases to knock out his oil facilities and then move on?

And, how are your Indian and British units set for strength? You lost a lot of squads when he took Ceylon and while fighting in India and they are slow to fill back out.





Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (6/28/2011 2:21:23 PM)

Weighing how much is needed in Sumatra is tough.  I'm leaning towards bringing too much due to the importance of this campaign:

1)  The Allies get one shot at an early, overwhelming strike at a place of their own choosing.  Once such a vector is chosen, that generally becomes the scene of fighting for a long, long time. 

2)  Japan will react violently.  This theater will be the scene of heavy air and sea engagements for months or years to come.

3)  The enemy may try to counterattack with overwhelming ground troops, but won't succeed if the Allies are sufficiently strong.

4)  Sumatra offers so many advantages - big airfields in close proximity to critical enemy bases including Singapore and Palembang.

5)  Once established in western Sumatra, the Allies can move forard against Malaya under cover of LBA (or part LBA and part carrier air).

6)  The Allies have shifted some unit prep to ports in central Malaya, including 27th USA Div. and several paratroop units.  If things go well in Sumatra, the Allies will be in position to move on Malaya in the short term.

7)  A strong Allied position in Japan's vitals renders non-vital positions largely irrelevant.  Thus, Japanese bases at Luganville, the Solomons, eastern New Guinea, the Gilberts, etc. are no longer signfiicant.  Brad will still fight for these, because he'll still have troops there for awhile to come, but the Allies will be able to make headway in these areas now.



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (6/28/2011 2:23:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
And, how are your Indian and British units set for strength? You lost a lot of squads when he took Ceylon and while fighting in India and they are slow to fill back out.


Three UK brigades are still weak from the Ceylon defense (each has roughly 75 AV). Those will be used to pick off small bases or dot hex islands near Sumatra, the Nicobars, and Andamans.

Several Indian divisions were weakened in the defense of India, but I have many others at full strength. The challenge here is having PP to buy these units.



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (6/28/2011 11:06:55 PM)

1/15/43 to 1/19/43
 
China:  A big army (3,000 AV) at Henyang will shock attack across the river in two days.  The enemy has no more than a division, so this should be an Allied victory.

Diego Garcia:  The Allies did a snap invasion of Diego Garcia, with what was on hand, after establishing a picket line that showed there was no ambush around.  The Allies didn't have quite enough to prevail, though things look good.  (Brad thinks this was a bungled invasion - it wasn't, but I'd like him to continue that thinking).  My only concern now is that he be tempted to intervene, but my picket line is in a good position to give warning.  The Allies have 70 AV vs. 50 AV, with an Aussie brigade on the way.

Sumatra:  The Allies decided that it was better to concentrate forces in the upcoming invasion, focusing on a narrow front from Sabang to Sibolga, rather than a broad front from Sabang to Padang.  Changes were made to prep for the units affected (not that many).  I've also decided that the Allies can proceed using APs, rather than awaiting conversion to APAs.  The Allies will have such a vast armada, and APs are such good amphibious ships, that the extra speed isn't deemed crucial, while waiting the extra time for the conversions to occur in March might be.  The final transports are enroute to the staging points in Oz - the last one just reached Tahiti.  It is possible that transports can begin loading in three weeks, with D-Day in six weeks.  That's a little ambitious, but we'll see.



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Bid Thee Return (6/29/2011 9:44:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Weighing how much is needed in Sumatra is tough.  I'm leaning towards bringing too much due to the importance of this campaign:


It's like beer: you can never bring too much.

I am also glad to see this AAR resurrected as you always provide some excellent analysis.

Cheers,
CC



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/1/2011 2:55:12 PM)

1/20/42 to 1/22/42
 
Diego Garcia:  Reinforcing Aussie brigade is on the way.  This should do the trick barring Japan deciding to contest the battle, which Brad isn't showing any inclination to do.

Sumatra:  SigInt that 4th Guards Division is aboard a maru bound for Medan with 4th Tank Regiment already there.  This is okay - it and all other SigInt reports shows that Brad is paying normal, but not heightened, attention to western Sumatra.  The Allies are beginning the final moves to get ground troops to ports of embarkation as the final transports TFs are also making their final runs.  I'm hoping to orchestrate D-Day within two months.

SoPac:  Japan isn't contesting the air over Luganville, so B-17s from Noumea will shut down the airfield.  Brad doesn't care about Luganville, but I want it to firm up my LOC, so it suits me if he decides not to fight for it.  This invasion might take place just after Sumatra if I have enough transports to carry the equivalent of a division.

CenPac:  I think the Allies have enough troop transports at Pearl and San Diego to handle invasions of Iwo Jima, Marcus and perhaps Wake, a move meant to follow shortly after the invasion of Sumatra.  If I don't have enough, I'll reduce the number of targets until I do.

NoPac:  I'm gradually shifting some combat ships and more transports up to the Aleutians, including BB Warspite, to lend the appearance that the Allies have offensive ambitions up here.



vettim89 -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/2/2011 6:23:10 PM)

At the risk of neing immodest, you might want to refer back to my WiTP AAR. My occupation and developement of Sumatra might give you an idea of what you might face when you go for that island

Reversal of Fortunes

Sumatra action starts on page 24



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/19/2011 8:00:03 PM)

The Great Non-Communicator (Q-Ball) is at it again.  The last turn he sent was about ten days ago.  Since then, he's been so busy playing WitE that he hasn't had the time to drop a note that no turn would be coming for a few hours or days or weeks.  Now, from reading his WitE AAR, I find out that he's gone on vacation.  How's that for an opponent?  Leaves town for two weeks and doesn't bother to inform his opponent.

[:@]



Cribtop -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/19/2011 8:30:23 PM)

Ugh. My sympathies.



Miller -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/19/2011 11:53:31 PM)

Really "Bad form" from Q-Ball. It takes all of a minute to send an email informing the other player of any vacation/real life event that would put the game on hold.[:-]



JeffroK -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/20/2011 4:17:49 AM)

New patch for WITE, does that coincide with anything?



pws1225 -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/20/2011 4:24:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Great Non-Communicator (Q-Ball) is at it again.  The last turn he sent was about ten days ago.  Since then, he's been so busy playing WitE that he hasn't had the time to drop a note that no turn would be coming for a few hours or days or weeks.  Now, from reading his WitE AAR, I find out that he's gone on vacation.  How's that for an opponent?  Leaves town for two weeks and doesn't bother to inform his opponent.



Agreed. Courtesy is too a simple gift not to give.



Fishbed -> RE: Bid Thee Return (7/20/2011 12:52:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Great Non-Communicator (Q-Ball) is at it again.  The last turn he sent was about ten days ago.  Since then, he's been so busy playing WitE that he hasn't had the time to drop a note that no turn would be coming for a few hours or days or weeks.  Now, from reading his WitE AAR, I find out that he's gone on vacation.  How's that for an opponent?  Leaves town for two weeks and doesn't bother to inform his opponent.

[:@]


Well although this can't be a little bit bothering, I can assure you that he seems to enjoy his eastern ride at least. Bring some comfort to his Pacific misadventures I guess [:D] [;)]



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 4:34:21 AM)

The last communication from Q-Ball was on July 9 indicating the turn he sent "might be the last of the day." Well, it proved to be the last of the day, week, fortnight, month, and game. After not hearing anything further from him, including a heads-up "hey, I'm going on vacation," I decided to call it quits.

Everybody knows that Q-Ball is a good guy and a gifted player. You would do me a big favor it you refrained from criticizing his disappearance. I mentioned it only to let you know why I finally decided to call it quits today. I sent Brad an email notifying him that the game was over. I wish him the best in his gaming endeavors and certainly hope he'll return to AE "one of these days."

I read much of his AAR tonight. Very interesting. First, our thinking was frequently along similar lines in many ways. I was surprised that he thought the Allied carriers were probably around southern Oz when they were actually at Capetown. I had figured he might have deduced what I was thinking.

I was also chagrined to see just how prepared he was in Sumatra. That would have been a nasty battle.

Over the past few months, I have come to realize just how insightful (not inciteful, mind you) Nemo's comments are. While I sometimes have trouble understanding everything he says, and infrequently take issue with how he says it, the guy is smart. Reading Q-Ball's AAR reinforces that impression. Nemo was always right on with his comments, evaluations, and suggestions. Had I been playing Nemo, the game would have ended in a Japanese auto victory.

Thanks to everyone who followed the game. I'm sure Q-Ball could use a healthy dose of "welcome backs!" when he returns, as he'll undoubtedly feel a little remorse about how the game ended. So, I'll be the first to say it (and with all sincerity): Welcome back, Q-Ball!



Cribtop -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 5:34:18 AM)

Sorry to hear it's over, Dan. Bottom line is that IMHO, you won. Finally, I have to agree that Nemo knows what he is talking about. I've learned a lot from him myself.



d0mbo -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 3:52:13 PM)

Too bad Canoerebel, that it has to end this way. My symphaties and respect for the choice you made and being very civil about it.

Cheers,

d0mbo.




JohnDillworth -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 5:09:37 PM)

You are a class act CR. In case anyone was wondering this is what the high road looks like. Looking forward to following your current AAR and hopefully seeing a new one started in the future. The take away from this AAR is that a Japanese auto victory is possible. Waiting to see someone do it.
all the best



Chickenboy -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 5:14:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: d0mbo

Too bad Canoerebel, that it has to end this way. My symphaties and respect for the choice you made and being very civil about it.

Cheers,

d0mbo.



+1

I'm entering this in my mental registry as a clear cut victory for you, Canoerebel. For folks that drop out of games like this, it's the same as a "Decisive Victory" for you in terms of points difference. A job well done.

ETA: I was hoping that the game would at least continue through your invasion of Sumatra. His preparations there would have made this a very interesting and a very bloody contest.



SqzMyLemon -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 5:17:08 PM)

I want to echo that you handled this entire situation with class Canoerebel. Thoroughly enjoyed following along, but it's too bad we won't see how the fight for Sumatra would have gone.



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 5:39:44 PM)

A few more comments after digesting Q-Ball's AAR:

1. We really were thinking in parallel quite often.  We even frequently used the same language - "reading the tea leaves" and the like.  We were both talking about three auto-victory routes - India, Australia, and Hawaii (although I should say I now think there may be two more).  We both thought Oz would be the most likely target for awhile.  After Q-Ball switched his aim towards India, I wasn't too long in making the same decision - focus on India.

2.  It took Q-Ball much, much longer than I had expected to pick up on the major Allied development in the Aleutians.  Apparently, he wasn't monitoring port and airfield growth.  I had expected him to see this and develop a healthy concern for the safety of the Kuriles.  Instead, he picked up on it rather late - only after he saw a fair bit of shipping at Adak Island.  He did eventually begin a major build up in the Kuriles, but my deceptions weren't particularly effective.

3. He felt like the game was over when he lost those seven or so divisons in India, but that was totally a figment of his morale.  He remained very strong and would have been fine throughout the game.  We all know morale plays a huge part in the game - at least when an Allied player loses an major carrier battle early in the war and promptly concedes.  But this reinforces the idea that any major commitment that ends badly can have a serious impact on a player's psyche, even if it's land units that can be rebuilt.

4.  Q-Ball came within eyesight of auto victory, so I can see why some might think Japan won the game. On the other hand, the Allies conceived a plan that envisioned Japan invading either Oz or India, then getting hung up in a deteriorating air war that would result in the mauling of alot of IJA troops.  That is exactly what happened, though I didn't think Brad would get so deep into India and so close to auto victory.  So, the Allied grand strategic plan had flaws, but it ended up working out.




crsutton -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 7:49:10 PM)

Well, it was one of the best AARs read from both sides. I just hated to see it stop.

However, I think this reinforces my long time argument against auto-victory. This was simply a great game and should have gone on a lot longer. However, QBall simply lost heart and gave up when he realized that AV was out of his grasp. I have seen and heard this happen too many times in my many years on this forum. It is for this reason that I hate auto-victory. Too many Japanese players gamble all on attaining it and when they fall short, the game is over. Ruining what could have been exciting and fun campaign.

Just get rid of Auto victory. It does not make sense from any historical standpoint and it just ruins the game. I am aware that many Japanese players feel that it is the only way that they will ever win a game and I can'f find fault with this. However, this can and should be balanced in other ways. I have said it before, I don't give a rat's ass who come out on top with the most points. I am not playing for money here, so why care. The Allies will most likely win and it won't be pretty when they do. Still, I will know in the end who played the better game-no matter the point score.



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 7:52:59 PM)

Naw, I love auto victory!  It makes the game infinately more interesting!



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 8:24:12 PM)

quote:

That is exactly what happened, though I didn't think Brad would get so deep into India and so close to auto victory. So, the Allied grand strategic plan had flaws, but it ended up working out.


Have to agree. As the saying goes (with my modification), "Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and hydrogen bombs."



Lomri -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 9:09:45 PM)


Sad to see this AAR come to an end. I started reading Q-Balls first and only really came over here when the posts started to get few and far between. I've got both open in my AAR browser tabs to check every morning when I sip my coffee. (Along with a few others, sadly many of which are slowing down). I owe you guys a lot for all the entertainment.

I was hoping that this would revive and we'd get to see how the Sumatra plan went. But I do appreciate your ability to make a firm decision and execute - by reading Q-Ball's AAR it leaves me with no false hope that he will come back and this will start up again.

As for auto-victory, I've seen this same discussion before here. I think both sides have a lot of merit. It leads me to think their could be a middle ground. An ability to play the game to the end THEN declare who over-all achieved what kind of "victory against history". A curve of some kind so that victories by Japan later give more points when the going is harder. That kind of scheme. But I digress.

Thanks again for the well written very entertaining AAR. Now to find another one to fill this browser tab and morning coffee reading slot!



Lomri -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 9:11:59 PM)


PS. I can't believe he didn't take Socotra!



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 9:44:22 PM)

The entire game would have changed had he moved on Socotra.  He would have gotten the carrier battle he so longed for.

The Allied carriers were parked at Capetown and at Mombassa, and I had firmly resolved to use them if needed to escort critical reinforcement convoys from Aden to Karachi.  At one point, a big IJ armada of unknown composition showed up on the map in a position that suggested he was going to invade Socatra.  The Allied carriers sortied and were just one day from entering the map when it became clear no invasion was imminent.  At that point, I recalled the fleet to Mombassa.

Brad came very close to learning the location of the Allied carriers at that point, and he would have forced a carrier battle had he parked the KB near Karachi.  But I didn't want to use them, so I was glad he decided against that tactic.



DivePac88 -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 10:39:46 PM)

Damn... one of the great match-ups has finished

Sorry to hear the news there Canoerebel, but I can now read your side of the AAR, as I had only read Q-Ball's AAR for reasons of security.

It dose seem that we have lost a lot of the old-hands lately, and that a sort of a changing of the guard is happening.

So good luck with your next game, and please lets see another AAR soon there Canoerebel Sir (which I will read, and bugger security).



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 10:45:48 PM)

I have been carefully watching the numbers of forumites present in both the AE section and the WitE section since the latter game debued and snatched Q-Ball away.  For awhile, WitE drew more..then after three or four months they ran basically even...and now AE almost always has more; sometimes twice as many. 

Also, while a number of old timers have gradually faded away (VSWG, Grotius, Q-Ball, Mogami, Admiral Dadman, Knavey, Yubari, and others), there seems to have been a big influx of newcomers of late.  Perhaps these folks were drawn by AE's reduced price during the Matrix sale event sometime back.

In any event, the AE forum seems alive and well and lively, which is great news for all of us who love the game.



Nemo121 -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/2/2011 10:51:51 PM)

Alive, lively. Yes.

Well. Debatable.


P.s. Kudos on your victory. It is deserved. You were significantly superior at the strategic level.



Canoerebel -> RE: Bid Thee Return (8/3/2011 2:13:20 PM)

Edited: To move this essay to my "Tokyo Rose is a Hussy" AAR, where I had meant to post it in the first place.



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