RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (Full Version)

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Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/12/2011 2:55:29 PM)

Yep, looks like he's coming overland at you, Dan. What about waiting forever until he closes up with you over the yellow roads and then coming in behind him with fresh troops at either Sabang or in Malaya?



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/13/2011 2:22:40 PM)

6/15/42
 
DEI:  The KB is on the move again, nearing Singapore after departing Georgetown.  If she parks at Singers, we may try to work something out in the way of a strike in a few days.  But she'll likely head into the South China Sea. 

CenPac:  No sign of that enemy TF today, but IJN subs are parked at Tarawa, Makin, and in the waters south of Pearl Harbor.  Steve definately didn't like the Allied invasion in the Gilberts.  [:)]

NoPac:  BB Pennsylvania bombarded Amchitka, just to make sure Steve knows the Allies have capital ships up here; layin' the groundwork for a possible ambush one o' these days.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/14/2011 9:22:28 PM)

6/16/42
 
DEI:  KB has retired to Singapore.  Japanese units are advancing on Batavia, harrassed by Allied bombers.

CenPac:  Japanese TF of unknown make, on unknown mission, approaching Baker Island, which is kind of isolated now.  Allied combat ships detailed investigage.  CL Jintsu bombarded Makin Island and, in so doing, learned that a USA RCT is posted there.  More enemy shipping present around Kwajalein, Majuro, etc., so the Allied invasion of Tarawa has stirred up a bee hive.  (Excellent.)



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/15/2011 2:29:54 PM)

6/17/42
 
CenPac:  I-5, posted south of Pearl Harbor, picks off an AP returning from Tarawa plus damaged-DD Gridley (sorry, Cuttlefish!) on the way home from Pago Pago.  CL Jintsu bombards Tarawa - another recon mission.  The Mini-KB has had time to reach theater now.  Steve is likely to use it forward, especially given the amount of Allied shipping that will soon arrive - a bunch of reinforcing Sea Bee units will reach the area in a week or less.  The Warspite TF is east of Tarawa and CV Wake will arrive at Christmas Island in five days.  Bottom Line:  I have to be careful with Wasp until I know exactly what's out there, but Steve is too late here - Japan can reclaim the Gilberts bases only via a massive amphibious operation that would seriously detract from far more important theaters.

SoPac:  Quiet at Pago Pago right now.

DEI:  Quiet here, too.  Japan should take Batavia in two or three days.  Palembang forts up to 6.67.  Two new fighter squadrons unloaded at Cocos Island can make the jump to Oosthaven.

Burma:  Advancing Japanese army will find USA 27th Div. plus some Burma units at Toungoo.



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/15/2011 3:21:26 PM)

Looks like pretty good news all around - at least no crisis on the horizon, right?

If you can get the airfields around Tarawa built up & get some LBA into the area, it would certainly create a very bad situation (backed up by the Wasp) for the mini-KB. Chaz is really missing those light carriers right now.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/15/2011 5:36:50 PM)

Right, no immediate crisis on the horizon.

I am struggling to evaluate one opportunity/risk:  orchestrating a massive strike vs. the KB.  The KB remains at Singapore, where naval-fighter CAP is halfed due to it being a base hex.  Singapore has a level nine airfield with alot of LBA.

By sending in the B-17s on a strike mission vs. the airfield or port, the Allies could probably weaken the CAP to some extent.  If that was followed up by massive strikes that were well escorted, the carriers might take some serious damage.  The risk, though, is that the strikes were poorly escorted so that the Allies might lose oodles of strike aircraft and fighters, thus handicapping the Sumatra defenses.

Defending Sumatra is of paramount concern, so I am leaning towards not taking such a gamble.  But I haven't made the final decision yet.

One important factor is that the Allies have more than 100 fighters to be withdrawn in about two weeks.  So I have a better shot now than I would on, say, July 5.

Decisions, decisions!



Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/15/2011 5:48:39 PM)

Sink the Gridley! No other considerations shall have any weight, whatsoever!



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/15/2011 5:51:01 PM)

Well, he may be trailing the KB's coat-tails around to try to goad you into just that type of strike (with heavy CAP set, since he doesn't have to worry about escorting strikes) - but, if you have about 100 fighters you're just going to have to withdraw them, why not use them (before you lose them)? You might inflict enough damage on his fighter groups to make him more reluctant down the line to expose himself.

Of course, if you did got for a total attack & got lucky, you may put his one remaining mobile asset either on the bottom or in the repairs yards for quite some time.

As you said, decisions, decisions.....he's making fairly obvious moves right now, which does lend itself to the thought that it is a trap.



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 1:02:49 AM)

IMHO,

Try some recon, see what numbers it shows.

Losing even a large number of aircraft is worth decent hits on even 1 CV, damage which forces him to send them back to the HI sees them out of the war for a while at a time he needs them most.

At the least, he may see Singapore as a bad choice of base and move further back from the front lines, to your advantage.

Chez seems to have sent out the KB in fear of an attack on his Rangoon Tfs rather than use them to hit at any counterstrike you may have sent in.

paullus99 senses it may be a trap, but I havent seen anything that would support a briiliant plan, Chez is running from side to side reacting to your moves.

The fun continues!



whippleofd -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 4:39:48 AM)

quote:

Japan can reclaim the Gilberts bases only via a massive amphibious operation that would seriously detract from far more important theaters.


Given previous history, don't discount this.

Whipple



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 4:11:18 PM)

Maybe not so much a trap in the classical sense, but possibly setting up conditions for an exchange in his favor.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 8:21:51 PM)

6/18/42
 
Today was one of those days when lots of little pieces come together to make a nice picture-puzzle for the Allies.

DEI:  The KB is sighted in the South China Sea, east of Kuantan, on a northeast heading.  It could be bound around Borneo to move into the Indian Ocean from a safe direction, but even that route will put it "out of action" for five days or so.  An IJ stack of 14 units is one hex east of Batavia, moving slowly under daily bombings by B-17s.  Since the Allies have just 59 AV behind three forts at Batavia, this is major overkill.  With a bit of reconnaissance, Steve would have known Batavia was open and it would have fallen weeks ago.  A small IJ army at Sibolga failed to dislodge the small Allied army there.

Burma:  SigInt that 4th Guards Div. is aboard a maru bound for Rangoon.  Good.  That's two divisions that won't be available for fighting in Sumatra.  With the equivalent of two divisions, the Allies can probably wage a good defensive battle against two-plus IJA divisions in Burma.  So the Allies won't retire from the Mandalay sector unless Japan brings enough to overwhelm.  AVG/2 squadron knocked down 21 unescorted Sallys at Toungoo.

SoPac:  Enemy combat ships reported at Suva, but that's far enough away from Pago Pago for the Allied TF carrying 19th RCT to finish unloading.  Pago Pago airfield went to level three.

CenPac:  A USN DD/DMS TF sank a lone xAK at Baker Island.  A snap-IJ invasion of Nauru Island using 65th Naval Guards fails miserably.  Two USA RCTs prepped for Baker Island begin loading at Pearl Harbor.

China:  A big Chinese army (5,800 AV) caught up with two weak units north of Sinyang and should punish them tomorrow.

Summary:  Steve still seems intent on spreading around his strength, pursuing secondary items when, in my opinion, everything should be focused on Sumatra.



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 8:28:41 PM)

If he's moving reinforcements towards Rangoon by sea, what assets do you have available for an intercept? Your opponent has probably moved additional air units forward, but better to put those troops on the sea floor than have to fight them on land.....



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 8:32:56 PM)

There's nothing to intercept with.  All Allied airfields within range are level one (Port Blair, Tavoy, Toungoo, Mandalay, etc.).  I might see about forming a little CL/DD force at Colombo, thanks to your suggestion, but the Japanese convoy could be 85 hexes away (seriously - it might still be in the South China Sea).



Grotius -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 10:37:11 PM)

Hey Canoe, just thought I'd mention that I've been reading your AAR to catch up on this game. From the last few pages, it looks like you're doing quite well! I have subscribed, and I look forward to reading more.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 11:17:59 PM)

It made my day to see you pop in, Grotius.  Thanks.



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 11:32:52 PM)

Summary: Steve still seems intent on spreading around his strength, pursuing secondary items when, in my opinion, everything should be focused on Sumatra

Can one of those more aware of japans capabilities in Scen 2 state that Sumatra is VITAL to japans economy??

Maybe he has worked out, or been told, that the HI can survive on what he can garner from other locations??

Doesnt alter the fact that Sumatra is a knife in the guts of SEAC and a great place for the Allies to start its counteroffensive from.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/16/2011 11:39:19 PM)

Jeff, right.  Even if Japan doesn't need Palembang's oil, it can't afford a massive Allied complex of bases (IE, unsinkable aircraft carriers) adjacent to Singapore and Batavia. Steve has to neutralize Sumatra and would have the unilateral ability to do so (meaning:  the Allies couldn't effecitvely contest a well-orchestrated and massive operation) until the point is reached where the Allies have the strength to reinforce the position and then begin to move forward.  That point is hard to identify, because it can move (if, for instance, one side or the other loses a big carrier battle).  But I think Japan generally loses it's "unilateral ability" sometime in the autumn of 1942.  In this game, with the losses Japan has suffered and with the dispersion of major IJ assets all over the map, I think that date might be as early as August 1942.



Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 4:18:16 AM)

Dan,

Consider that once Steve finds out how weakly held Batavia is, and then takes it, he will free up a good amount of combat power. Even with everything he's done to disperse himself, there really is no other target for those forces than Sumatra (I guess he could go for NW Oz but I seriously doubt it). He may try a two pronged advance - overland on Sumatra plus loading at Tjilatjap or Soerabaja to hit a base on the southern coast rather than Palembang or Oosthaven. This possibility is one way to explain why KB is sailing around the north coast of Borneo (although of course there are others, including "Steve has settled on a land campaign in Sumatra and is sending KB to the Pacific").

Think what you can do to use that against him. Options could include hitting him with LBA and dismounted CV groups as he loads up, waiting for him to re-load before landing a nuisance invasion at Tjilatjap to reconquer lots of Java and thus buy time while we re-re-loads and then re-invades, etc.




JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 5:30:08 AM)

I, after millions of days playing the AI, would try to starve you out from bases at Batavia and Western Sumatra. Maybe take out Christmas Island as well.

This way he might be able to lock you up on Eastern Sumatra without allocating a massive ground force.

Cover your rear bases, and wait for the offensive (which might never happen)



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 2:31:39 PM)

6/19/42
 
Another good day for the Allies.

DEI:  The KB has vanished from sight and Japan still hasn't arrived at Batavia.  Oosthaven forts went to level six, and a big Aussie CD unit is just five or six days out.  By the end of the month, Japan should hold Batavia and Merak, which means the noose will have tightened considerably, but that's the way things were supposed to happen.

Burma:  Two IJA regiments shock attacked at Toungoo, which was a mistake since 27th Div. had reinforced the post (Steve didn't bombard first to see what was there).  Those two regiments were roughed up and will require reinforcements.

China:  The Chinese stack caught and mauled a fresh IJA division (23rd), which unaccountably was posted in no-man's-land.  The subsequent attack destroyed 300 squads (the adjusted AV dropped from 464 to 75 during the attack).  That's seven IJA divisions defeated in China since April.

NoPac:  Japan continues to pay attention to Para and Onne, bombing daily, but no imminent signs of counter-invasion.

CenPac:  IJ TF reported to consist of CL and DD is north of Tarawa on an easterly heading.  I know the Jintsu TF is out here, but I have to be careful lest I bump into the carrier force detached from Singapore a few weeks ago.  Japan reinforced its landing at Nauru Island - the amphibious troops were totally disrupted in the landing, but enough are ashore now to pose a real threat to the battalion of 32nd Div. (just 20 AV) ashore there.  I have lots of inbound TFs carrying Sea Bees to several bases plus 5th Marine CD to Tarawa, so I'm trying to gauge how serious the threat is of enemy raiders and carriers.  The Warspite TF is retiring to Christmas Island to refuel and will be back on station in four days or so.  Wasp is four days east of Christmas.  Steve is showing much interest in this area, suggesting that the Allies would be better served reinforcing at-risk bases (Makin, Nauru, Ocean) if possbile rather than trying to expand.  A meeting engagement is going to develop here.

SoPac:  A week ago, I tinkered with the bombardment orders, standing down the big arty units and ordering just the two USA RCT's to bombard.  For some reason, this seriously ramped up the effectiveness of the bombardments.  This turn alone, for example, Japan lost five infantry squads with others damaged (a total of 350 casualties).  I'm pretty sure the activity in the Gilberts is going to put a halt to Japanese hopes at Pago Pago, but we'll see.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 2:38:41 PM)

P.S. In reply to one post above.  Palembang produces its own supply (I think 1,000 points per day).  That and the fact that the Allies have brought in supply should make it very difficult for Japan to starve out the garrison - at least within a time frame that would prevent the Allies from reinforcing and resupplying in strength when the time comes (the Allies should be able to do that sometime in the autumn if Japan hasn't attended to Sumatra by then).



Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 4:37:01 PM)

Interesting re the bombardment. The consensus seems to be that arty firing in defense uses the pre-nerf routines while offensive bombardments use the new routines. Thus, many posters posit (another big word for you [:D]) that the best use for arty is in defense. Is it possible that your big guns, ordered NOT to bombard, participate in counter-counter battery fire at a more effective rate? Hard to express this thought, but hopefully you get the idea.



SqzMyLemon -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 5:17:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Burma:  Two IJA regiments shock attacked at Toungoo, which was a mistake since 27th Div. had reinforced the post (Steve didn't bombard first to see what was there).  Those two regiments were roughed up and will require reinforcements.

China:  The Chinese stack caught and mauled a fresh IJA division (23rd), which unaccountably was posted in no-man's-land.  The subsequent attack destroyed 300 squads (the adjusted AV dropped from 464 to 75 during the attack).  That's seven IJA divisions defeated in China since April.



For the love of...why? Just throwing troops away needlessly. It's really disappointing to see this still happening at this stage of the game. Enjoyed the game CR and well done, but I'm not sure how much more of this I can watch. [:D]



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 5:19:01 PM)

Hmmmm.....it'll be very interesting to see where the KB reappears - too bad you haven't had the chance to get a crack at his airgroups yet. If you can force him to make another diversion of force, it will open up some offensive-type opportunities (perhaps a port raid on Singapore, if he positions lots of shipping there).

Of course, this also gives you to opportunity to do some serious base building on the periphery in support of your Sumatran position - get some decent sized airfields in range & start interdicting his SLOCs to Rangoon. I know I mentioned this before, but his troops are much easier to sink than fight (or force them to take the land - long way around route to their destinations).

Too bad you don't have another small periphery operation you could pull (or perhaps you do) that would open up a fresh wound and force him to divert additional assets. I'm sure PP are probably the main limitation for you right now, but you've done a masterful job thus far. Now we just need to get some additional attrition going.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 5:56:46 PM)

It's "optimal" for the Allies to "unleash" new operations periodically to keep Japan off balance.  It is also important for the Allies to be prepared to unleash one right after Japan moves on eastern Sumatra in a big way.  Such a synchronous move would really mess with Steve's mind.

Conceiving, planning, and implementing successful operations is, of course, a major challenge.  The Allies have come up with quite a few, but so much time has elapsed that these have mostly been implemented.  At the moment, the Allies don't really have anything new or fresh - most of what I'm planning is building upon the successes in various theaters.  While this may not be as effective as a new operation might be in disorienting the enemy, it is still better than nothing, especially since Steve keeps reacting very strongly to Allied moves - NoPac, Pago Pago, Burma and now the Gilberts are all proof of this proposition.  Every time the Allies strike, Japan scrambles in major ways to deal with it.

At the moment, the Allies have a number of "follow up" operations ongoing - the defense of Pago Pago, reinforcing newly won bases in the Giblerts, invading Baker Island, and ongoing efforts to harrass the enemy in Burma and China.

But what about an operation to be implemented right on the heels of the Japanese move on Sumatra?  As stated above, I'm in a bit of a lull where I'm not ready to do anything at the moment.  Political points are my major problem.  Just about anywhere I go now, I would need thousands of points to buy the necessary units. 

The one thing I can probably put together the most expeditiously would be a major operation to reinforce and resupply Para and Onnekotan.  Doing so would open up Para's airfield (level three at the moment) and allow me to strategic-bomb Shikuka.  That would get Steve's full attention!  But even pulling that together will take many weeks.

Most of the other options suffer from serious flaws at the moment:  (1) Malaya - the enemy is aroused here now and present in big numbers; (2) Java/Timor - big enemy forces close by; (3) reinforce NW Oz, okay, but that doesn't really throw Steve off balance; (4) reinforce Port Moresby or occupy and buildt Milne Bay; okay, but that doesn't throw him off either; (5) operations in the Pacific - Wake and/or Marcus might be available, but I think Steve is attending to these now that he has problems in the Gilberts.

The more I think about it, the more it seems like a massive operation in NoPac might be the most expeditious way of throwing a monkey wrench into Japan's machinery.



Ulua -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 6:46:16 PM)

I liked your tutorial, CR, so I decided to hop along to this AAR. I must admit, however, that my interest in this particular engagement is waning. Things seems incredibly vanilla here, things just don't seem to be happening (historically or otherwise). Perhaps you aren't covering Chez's more valiant efforts? I don't know, as I'm not reading his AAR.

It is 6/42. Has the KB participated in any decisive engagements since PH? Has Chez taken some strategic initiative that is making you sit at rapt attention? From following your AAR, it seems that India is empty, some token Pacific islands have been subverted by Japan, and a half-hearted invasion of the Aleutians occured. The KB is wandering around the Pacific split up, and a huge party is forming in Palembang but the guests of honor has not showed.

In your 1/42 reports after no decisive commitment had occured (PI, DEI, SEAC, China) I was hoping that a Hawaiian assault was being plotted. While it probably would not help enough for an AV (as initiative was rapidly being lost) it would have made for an interesting write-up. Now, here we are, with what appears to be neither side wanting to seize the initiative. Maybe I am encouraging you to be a little more reckless. Start planning that major assault on Vietnam, convert that major defensive build-up to some sort of attack force.

Nemo had mentioned that knife fight. It appears your opponent has made enough errors for you to confidently go for the killing blow, and not to be so concerned about repreccusions from failures. Frankly, I'd love to see an AAR from you and Nemo. Perhaps Nemo would get over his fears of Opsec breeches knowing that you will proactively ignore such attempts, and post from his side as well.

Anyway, this is all MHO, just wanting to draw out a little more insight in this thread.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 6:56:30 PM)

Thanks, Ulua.  Your grasp of what has happend is accurate - well, mostly - and is commendably detailed.

I can understand why many readers would find the game rather stale.  None of the really sexy things have happened that would grip a reader - no "Japan backing the Allies to the brink of disaster" (as happened in my game with Q-Ball and in GreyJoy's game with rader); no massive carrier battle; and as of this moment no titanic meeting engagement.

But from my perspective as an Allied player in Scenario Two at the still-early date of June 19, 1942, I can't imagine a more exciting situation.  The Allies have gone WAY out on a limb to establish a massive outpost on Sumatra.  Losing this outpost would absolutely crush the Allies (I can't imagine losing 4,500 AV and all the aircraft and ships that would go along with it).  Japan definately has the might and wherewithal to isolate and destroy the Allied outpost.  Therefore, the Allies will be forced to commit everything to defend the outpost (including capital ships and carriers, or at least carrier aircraft).  And, added to this, the Allies have been aggressively fighting in China, Burma, the Kuriles, and the Gilberts.

For heaven's sake, this is June 1942 in Scenario Two!  The Allies ought to be back on their heals with Japan rampaging forward.  So, while you might not think the Allies have pushed back and closed for a knife fight, I think that's exactly what they've done.



Miller -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 7:10:44 PM)

I doubt even the best Jap player could evict you from Sumatra now without taking almost catastrophic losses in the process. With PDU off the vast majority of his IJAAF units will still be flying Oscars and crappy light bombers who will not make a dent on any of your built up bases, so there is no way he could starve you out either.

To top it all the KB seems to be on an endless voyage of pointless fuel burning for nothing in return.

How about trying to force a Jap capitulation by 1/1/43?



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (8/17/2011 7:49:19 PM)

If the Allies still hold eastern Sumatra in strength on January 1, 1943, the game will be over even if Steve is still playing.



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