RE: Das darf nicht var sein!

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (Full Version)

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princep01 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 7:43:59 PM)
I have followed your AARs carefully for a number of reasons, not the least of which is your accomplished writting style and the good natured way you respond to criticism and suggestions. But, what has really impressed me in comparing your game with Q-Ball and this one is that you adopted what appears to me to be a more aggressive tactical game in the early going. Somewhat later, it transitioned into a more aggressive strategic game as you made the decision to go all in on the fortress plan. I was sometimes critical about your lack of tactical aggressiveness against Q-Ball, specifically in not attacking his exposed LOC as he went all out in India. However, in this game, you repeatedly used aggressive tactics with surface forces appearing where he did not expect you (Balabala (sp) comes to mind and I think Rabaul as well). In addition, you really set a vicious CV trap and crushed the LKB early. All well done. CR, my question is what caused this change (if you consider it a change)? Did the lessons gleaned from your game with Q-Ball have a significant effect on your play this time. I've never played a Scenario 2 game against Japan. Was the Q-Ball game your first Senario2 game?

Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 7:54:56 PM)
Can you outline the weaknesses of the Palembang gambit? I assume it includes isolation and eventual destruction of the Allied forces committed and/or loss of India. However, IMHO neither option is particularly easy for Japan and there is still the danger of destruction of the facilities upon capture.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 8:24:19 PM)
Fortress Sumatra Unveiled - A detailed look at how a casual comment prompts a little offensive stratagem that turns into the defining campaing of the war. 12/08/41: I comment in my AAR that I intend to make my DEI stands at Singapore and Soerabaja, leading Nemo to chime in: "Singapore and Soerabaja? Deathtraps both of them." Nemo recommends Palembang, with some explanation why defending it makes sense. 12/11/41: Having acted on Nemo's suggestion, the Allies immediately begin transferring various Dutch units to Sumatra - many of these small units from far-flung outposts retrieved by patrol aircraft. My comment: "It's fun. I just hope it proves effective - and I wish I had started on turn one..." 12/13/41: Allied AV at Palembang already up to 300, though these are almost entirely low quality Dutch and Indian units. 12/23/41: AV up to 470, including parts of some units at Singapore (though I fully intend to defend Singers, I do extract some cadres to beef up Sumatra). 12/26/41: AV up to 515; I note: "I am not comfortable going all-in" by stripping India to defend Palembang. At this point I'm thinking of Palembang as a speed bump rather than a fortress. 12/29/41: AV to 560; first unit (Indian brigade) arrives at Oosthaven, bringing its AV to 100. 01/02/42: AV to 624, forts two. 01/05/42: Note that the Allies are moving some CD guns to Sumatra. 01/11/42: "Incresingly inclined to make a big p lay in Sumatra." Decide to send first RCT from Americal Division to Capetown. 01/12/42: "...the Allies are beginning to getthe notion that a forward defense is a good idea." This notion was prompted in part by SigInt that 33rd IJA Division is aboard a maru bound for Luzon, convincing me (1) that Steve is not sure what he wishes to do, since previous SigInt showed it bound elsewhere; and (2) that Steve may be focusing on Luzon before the DEI. This analysis and decision is right on and probably the most important of the war. 01/13/42: "After mulling over things the Allis have committed fully to Fortress Palembang given what we're seeing from the enemy." Now the Allies seriously begin the long process of sending India troops to Sumatra with the goal of strengthening additional key bases like Benkolen and Padang. 01/16/42: Palembang AV/(Forts): 754 (3.08); Oosthaven: 421 (2.09). [Note that Benkolen, Padang, and interior bases are still wide open at this late date.] 02/02/42: 99th Indian Bde. lands at Padang. 02/05/42: Palembang 1179 (3.31); Oosthaven 632 (2.82); Benkolen 106 (1.50); Padang 136 (2.12); Djambi 24; Prabaemolith 164 (2.06). 02/11/42: Allied LBA from Java sinks CVL Shoho in Java Sea. 02/26/42: CVLs Zuiho and Ryujo sunk by Allied carriers, which just have reached theater, during invasion of Dempasar. 03/05/42: Palembang 1399 (4.01); Oosthaven 1040 (3.18); Benkolen 361 (2.62); Padang 142 (2.56); Djambi 75 (2.13); Prabaemolith 181 (2.99). 03/28/42: Allies successfully invade Paramushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima, opening up a new front that demands Steve's attention. 03/31/42: Allies successfully invade Sabang, opening up a new front that demands Steve's attention. Sometime in March or early April, the Allies occupy and begin to build Cocos Island, a base that guards the southern approaches to Sumatra. Cocos in Allied hands is huge. 04/02/42: Singapore falls. This, I figure, means the poo is about to hit the fan. The Allies had elected to defend Singapore as strongly as possible, knowing that Japan wouldn't move on India until that impediment had been removed. IE, Singapore brought me great peace of mind. 04/13 and 14/42: Battle of the Andamans Sea: Allied carriers sink BBs Ise and Haruna and probably CA Kako; BB Kongo is damaged. 05/11/42: Allies successfully invade Moulmein, leading to seige of Rangoon. That siege will ultimately fail, but ties up additional Japanese troops and ships for quite some time to come. For instance, the KB spends a week in the Bay of Bengal in late May just covering transport TFs bound for Rangoon. 05/31/42: Chinese wrap up intense six week operation that results in seven IJA divisions getting whacked. The situation is serious enough that (I think) Steve is forced to commit additional troops to China to prevent a complete meltdown. 06/04/42: Allies successfully invade Tarawa, followed soon thereafter by Makin, Ocean, Nauru, and Tabitueua. In my opinion this isn't a really important theater, so I am going to be caught by surprise (but will be utterly delighted) at how important my opponent deems it. 06/06/42: Oosthaven airfield reaches level nine. Part of the KB sighted near Borneo - I figure these ships are bound for Pago Pago or Tarawa. 06/10/42: "As we've discussed, Jpaan still has a chance to isolate, concentrate, and hammer Sumatra, though the ticking clock isn't Japan's friend." 06/13/42: Palembang 1613 (6.55); Oosthaven 1609 (5.70); Benkolen 507 (4.50); Padang 243 (3.26). 06/24/42: Batavia falls. Merak will fall on 07/02. Surely this will allow Japan to fully attend to Sumatra, right? 06/26/42: Allies successfully invade Baker Island. 06/27/42: First Naval Battle of Oosthaven: Japan loses BB Mutsu and CA Chokai; Allies lose BB New Mexico and CA Astoria. 06/29/42: Holy cow! Yamato, Hyuga, Yamashiro, CAs Furutaka, Tone, and CVs Hiyo and Junyo committed around Pago Pago. Since April, Japan has been committing major resources to this "Little Vietnam" campaign. Hiei has also been here for extended periods. 07/05/42: Enemy carriers take position NE of Tarawa, where they are to remain for the next seven weeks, more or less, with more carriers to show up. 07/07/42: Second Battle of Oosthaven: Allies lose Mississippi, Resolution, Prince of Wales and Exeter. Japan loses Fuso, Mogami, Mikuma, and Suzuya. 07/21/42: CVs Hiryu and Akagi sunk in the Battle of Cocos Island. 07/24/42: Marine raiders occupy Siberot Island, just offshore from Padang. 07/28/42: Fast transport convoys begin prepositioning supply at islands north of Oosthaven. The Allies are no longer purely on the defensive in the DEI. 07/30/42: Engineers arrive at Ndeni in the Santa Cruz Island, soon to be followed by about 190 AV of infantry. 07/31/42: July also featured a number of IJ air raids vs. various bases in Sumatra. Each of these was an Allied victory, and some decisively so. Steve isn't drawing any comfort from the air war. In late July, the Allies implement a major operation to reinforce and resupply Paramushiro Jima. This is expensive, but draws BB Kongo in response. 08/01/42: Land campaign for Padang begins, though Japan doesn't commit enough to have a decent chance here (at least through the end of August). The Allies reinforce. 08/06/42: First Allied infantry land at Billiton Island, north of Oosthaven. More will follow at Toboali and Singkep over the coming weeks. 08/08/42: The Allies announce a major change of plans. Since it does not seem likely that Japan will be invading Sumatra, the Allies don't need to keep in reserve the major force that was to form the core of a counter-invasion to follow. The Allies will isntead immediately begin transferring as many units as possible from India and Ceylon to Sumatra and the bases to the north. 08/15/42: For several weeks in August, massed IJN carriers in CenPac ravage a variety of Allied shipping, mostly low value, around Tarawa and vicinity. The Allies take some lumps, including losing CL Trenton, but having the majority of Japanese naval power centered here is too good to be true. 08/25/42: Second Paramushiro resupply and reinforcement operation underway with much more success than the first. 08/26/42: Engineers arrive at Port Moresby and Milne Bay undetected, with major reinforcements about two weeks away. If the Allies succeed in garrisoning and building these bases, the Japanese will have a new worry. These bases to the west, plus Ndeni to the east, suddenly restrict the very long IJ LOC between Rabaul to the nroth and New Caledonia/Fiji/Savaii Island to the south and east. 08/28/42: Palembang 1619 (8.31); Oosthaven 1810 (8.13); Benkolen 533 (5.22); Padang 780 (3.84); Djambi 127 (3.38); Prabaemolith 81 (3.39); and Lahat 36 (3.10). That brings us to the current date. Essentially every Allied move in the game has been made with the DEI in mind - either directly or indirectly aiding Fortress Sumatra.

Lomri -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 8:47:42 PM)
This is pretty easy for me to say from my arm chair over here, but I suspect Nemo was right that you could have successfully gone on the offensive earlier. From Chez' public post it is clear he has been defeated already in his mind in this theatre. Of course, that is all in hind-sight. Almost disappointing for him to pull the current open on his thinking in regards to the fortress sumatra stuff. Until then your readers (like me) may have been waiting to see if Chez would turn this around as suggested by Alfred and make a good contest out of this. Even while it continued to not materialize, it kept the tension to the AAR. But I'll still read because you write a darn good AAR.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 10:24:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cribtop Can you outline the weaknesses of the Palembang gambit? I assume it includes isolation and eventual destruction of the Allied forces committed and/or loss of India. However, IMHO neither option is particularly easy for Japan and there is still the danger of destruction of the facilities upon capture. A good and experienced IJ player can nullify the Fortress Palembang (or Fortress Sumatra) gambit by acting quickly and boldly to control Allied access to eastern Sumatra. Establishing big airfields with Netties in the vicinity (Singkawang or similar base, Mersing, and probably one of the islands near Oosthaven). This should be followed quickly by an invasion of Oosthaven or, if that is not possible for some reason, Benkolen. Once Japan gets a tight grip on Oosthaven, that base will deny the Allies the ability to reinforce Palembang in any kind of meaningful way. A very, very good and experienced IJ player might play the situation even more cleverly. He might encourage the Allies to commit as many troops as possible "way out on the limb" of eastern Sumatra. Said Japanese player would then "cauterize" the infection by taking measures to adequately attend to the sea lanes - establishing airfields in Borneo, Billiton Island, Singkep, and, most importantly, Cocos Island. He would probably also want one in eastern Sumatra - preferably Oosthaven, but Benkolen would also do nicely. While the Allies were committing most of their Commonwealth forces to this distant "nest" at the end of a lengthy and fragile branch, the Japanese player would then load up 15 divisions and invade India. Said IJ player, were he to play his cards right, would be laughing all the way to auto victory.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 10:31:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: princep01 I have followed your AARs carefully for a number of reasons...what has really impressed me in comparing your game with Q-Ball and this one is that you adopted what appears to me to be a more aggressive tactical game in the early going....CR, my question is what caused this change (if you consider it a change)? Did the lessons gleaned from your game with Q-Ball have a significant effect on your play this time. I've never played a Scenario 2 game against Japan. Was the Q-Ball game your first Senario2 game? This is actually "the real me." I was equally as bold in my early games, but I was also boldy ignorant. I didn't really know what I was doing, so I blundered into all kinds of losses that were very painful. I lost more carriers than you would believe possible. Consequently, I decided relatively recently to impose on myself a strict discipline of caution that would allow me to have carriers later in the game. I employed this caution, which became an exteme uber caution I admit, in my games vs. Miller and Q-Ball. In my game vs. Q-Ball, though, I came uncomfortably close to losing by auto victory. So, when I started this new match, seeking a contest in which an experienced IJ player might shoot for auto victory, and in which he might have the advice and counsel of lots of experienced players, I knew I had to play much differently than I had against Q-Ball...and much smarter than I had played against Miller. Presto, my natural inclination to take chances was back in play. Honestly, though, I was pretty lucky to score some nice victories early on. Had I been stung, I might have crawled back into my shell. Instead, each bold act seemed to be rewarded, so that human nature and blood lust encouraged more. [:)]

GreyJoy -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 11:10:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Fortress Sumatra Unveiled - A detailed look at how a casual comment prompts a little offensive stratagem that turns into the defining campaing of the war. 12/08/41: I comment in my AAR that I intend to make my DEI stands at Singapore and Soerabaja, leading Nemo to chime in: "Singapore and Soerabaja? Deathtraps both of them." Nemo recommends Palembang, with some explanation why defending it makes sense. 12/11/41: Having acted on Nemo's suggestion, the Allies immediately begin transferring various Dutch units to Sumatra - many of these small units from far-flung outposts retrieved by patrol aircraft. My comment: "It's fun. I just hope it proves effective - and I wish I had started on turn one..." 12/13/41: Allied AV at Palembang already up to 300, though these are almost entirely low quality Dutch and Indian units. 12/23/41: AV up to 470, including parts of some units at Singapore (though I fully intend to defend Singers, I do extract some cadres to beef up Sumatra). 12/26/41: AV up to 515; I note: "I am not comfortable going all-in" by stripping India to defend Palembang. At this point I'm thinking of Palembang as a speed bump rather than a fortress. 12/29/41: AV to 560; first unit (Indian brigade) arrives at Oosthaven, bringing its AV to 100. 01/02/42: AV to 624, forts two. 01/05/42: Note that the Allies are moving some CD guns to Sumatra. 01/11/42: "Incresingly inclined to make a big p lay in Sumatra." Decide to send first RCT from Americal Division to Capetown. 01/12/42: "...the Allies are beginning to getthe notion that a forward defense is a good idea." This notion was prompted in part by SigInt that 33rd IJA Division is aboard a maru bound for Luzon, convincing me (1) that Steve is not sure what he wishes to do, since previous SigInt showed it bound elsewhere; and (2) that Steve may be focusing on Luzon before the DEI. This analysis and decision is right on and probably the most important of the war. 01/13/42: "After mulling over things the Allis have committed fully to Fortress Palembang given what we're seeing from the enemy." Now the Allies seriously begin the long process of sending India troops to Sumatra with the goal of strengthening additional key bases like Benkolen and Padang. 01/16/42: Palembang AV/(Forts): 754 (3.08); Oosthaven: 421 (2.09). [Note that Benkolen, Padang, and interior bases are still wide open at this late date.] 02/02/42: 99th Indian Bde. lands at Padang. 02/05/42: Palembang 1179 (3.31); Oosthaven 632 (2.82); Benkolen 106 (1.50); Padang 136 (2.12); Djambi 24; Prabaemolith 164 (2.06). 02/11/42: Allied LBA from Java sinks CVL Shoho in Java Sea. 02/26/42: CVLs Zuiho and Ryujo sunk by Allied carriers, which just have reached theater, during invasion of Dempasar. 03/05/42: Palembang 1399 (4.01); Oosthaven 1040 (3.18); Benkolen 361 (2.62); Padang 142 (2.56); Djambi 75 (2.13); Prabaemolith 181 (2.99). 03/28/42: Allies successfully invade Paramushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima, opening up a new front that demands Steve's attention. 03/31/42: Allies successfully invade Sabang, opening up a new front that demands Steve's attention. Sometime in March or early April, the Allies occupy and begin to build Cocos Island, a base that guards the southern approaches to Sumatra. Cocos in Allied hands is huge. 04/02/42: Singapore falls. This, I figure, means the poo is about to hit the fan. The Allies had elected to defend Singapore as strongly as possible, knowing that Japan wouldn't move on India until that impediment had been removed. IE, Singapore brought me great peace of mind. 04/13 and 14/42: Battle of the Andamans Sea: Allied carriers sink BBs Ise and Haruna and probably CA Kako; BB Kongo is damaged. 05/11/42: Allies successfully invade Moulmein, leading to seige of Rangoon. That siege will ultimately fail, but ties up additional Japanese troops and ships for quite some time to come. For instance, the KB spends a week in the Bay of Bengal in late May just covering transport TFs bound for Rangoon. 05/31/42: Chinese wrap up intense six week operation that results in seven IJA divisions getting whacked. The situation is serious enough that (I think) Steve is forced to commit additional troops to China to prevent a complete meltdown. 06/04/42: Allies successfully invade Tarawa, followed soon thereafter by Makin, Ocean, Nauru, and Tabitueua. In my opinion this isn't a really important theater, so I am going to be caught by surprise (but will be utterly delighted) at how important my opponent deems it. 06/06/42: Oosthaven airfield reaches level nine. Part of the KB sighted near Borneo - I figure these ships are bound for Pago Pago or Tarawa. 06/10/42: "As we've discussed, Jpaan still has a chance to isolate, concentrate, and hammer Sumatra, though the ticking clock isn't Japan's friend." 06/13/42: Palembang 1613 (6.55); Oosthaven 1609 (5.70); Benkolen 507 (4.50); Padang 243 (3.26). 06/24/42: Batavia falls. Merak will fall on 07/02. Surely this will allow Japan to fully attend to Sumatra, right? 06/26/42: Allies successfully invade Baker Island. 06/27/42: First Naval Battle of Oosthaven: Japan loses BB Mutsu and CA Chokai; Allies lose BB New Mexico and CA Astoria. 06/29/42: Holy cow! Yamato, Hyuga, Yamashiro, CAs Furutaka, Tone, and CVs Hiyo and Junyo committed around Pago Pago. Since April, Japan has been committing major resources to this "Little Vietnam" campaign. Hiei has also been here for extended periods. 07/05/42: Enemy carriers take position NE of Tarawa, where they are to remain for the next seven weeks, more or less, with more carriers to show up. 07/07/42: Second Battle of Oosthaven: Allies lose Mississippi, Resolution, Prince of Wales and Exeter. Japan loses Fuso, Mogami, Mikuma, and Suzuya. 07/21/42: CVs Hiryu and Akagi sunk in the Battle of Cocos Island. 07/24/42: Marine raiders occupy Siberot Island, just offshore from Padang. 07/28/42: Fast transport convoys begin prepositioning supply at islands north of Oosthaven. The Allies are no longer purely on the defensive in the DEI. 07/30/42: Engineers arrive at Ndeni in the Santa Cruz Island, soon to be followed by about 190 AV of infantry. 07/31/42: July also featured a number of IJ air raids vs. various bases in Sumatra. Each of these was an Allied victory, and some decisively so. Steve isn't drawing any comfort from the air war. In late July, the Allies implement a major operation to reinforce and resupply Paramushiro Jima. This is expensive, but draws BB Kongo in response. 08/01/42: Land campaign for Padang begins, though Japan doesn't commit enough to have a decent chance here (at least through the end of August). The Allies reinforce. 08/06/42: First Allied infantry land at Billiton Island, north of Oosthaven. More will follow at Toboali and Singkep over the coming weeks. 08/08/42: The Allies announce a major change of plans. Since it does not seem likely that Japan will be invading Sumatra, the Allies don't need to keep in reserve the major force that was to form the core of a counter-invasion to follow. The Allies will isntead immediately begin transferring as many units as possible from India and Ceylon to Sumatra and the bases to the north. 08/15/42: For several weeks in August, massed IJN carriers in CenPac ravage a variety of Allied shipping, mostly low value, around Tarawa and vicinity. The Allies take some lumps, including losing CL Trenton, but having the majority of Japanese naval power centered here is too good to be true. 08/25/42: Second Paramushiro resupply and reinforcement operation underway with much more success than the first. 08/26/42: Engineers arrive at Port Moresby and Milne Bay undetected, with major reinforcements about two weeks away. If the Allies succeed in garrisoning and building these bases, the Japanese will have a new worry. These bases to the west, plus Ndeni to the east, suddenly restrict the very long IJ LOC between Rabaul to the nroth and New Caledonia/Fiji/Savaii Island to the south and east. 08/28/42: Palembang 1619 (8.31); Oosthaven 1810 (8.13); Benkolen 533 (5.22); Padang 780 (3.84); Djambi 127 (3.38); Prabaemolith 81 (3.39); and Lahat 36 (3.10). That brings us to the current date. Essentially every Allied move in the game has been made with the DEI in mind - either directly or indirectly aiding Fortress Sumatra. simply brilliant! i want this as a sticky!!!

JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/7/2011 11:43:27 PM)
29/12/41 was the first block, 2/2/42 sees the landing of another Bde at Benkeloken and locks the back door. 3 weeks for Chez to see what was happening and come in via Oosthaven which was weakly defended. The arrival of (an inexperienced) Indian Bde blocked that approach. 2 months to look at Benkeloken, the chances he missed of seriously hurting your forces. Singapore survives till 2/4/42, almost 5mths. What was Chez doing in this period. This is all before the loss of MKB. CR,

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 2:48:15 PM)
I suspect that something, or some combination of things, happened very early in the war that really threw Chez off. I know that early on I got SigInt that he had at least two divisions that were bound for Babeldaob or vicinity, as though he was planning a big move into the eastern DEI or even northwestern Oz. Not long afterwards, I got SigInt that those divisions were backtracking to Iba on Luzon. It was as though a combination of events had persuaded Steve to be much more conservative - to focus on Luzon early rather than the DEI or more bold objectives. Thus, weeks and weeks passed with him concentrating on Luzon, a campaign far away from the DEI. At the same time, the Allies were drawing inspiration from the "picture" painted by this sequence of intel coups to ramp up the "Fortress Sumatra" operations.

Lomri -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 3:01:02 PM)
Early on you had some SigInt about units prepped for NZ too. For a while early in the AAR I was convinced he had a plan for NZ. I'll be curious to read his AAR once this game is over to see if this was the case. (more likely he just had units prepped for NZ to add noise to SigInt).

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 3:01:19 PM)
8/28/42 NoPac: The Allies complete thie operation to resupply and reinforce Paramushiro without any opposition, except the sinking of a xAKL and an air battle that the Allies won. The Allies finish with 30k supply and 650 AV at Para. With forts at four, this base is in fairly good shape for awhile. I don't know where Kongo and the other defenders went. The Allies will transition over to smaller re-supply missions now. CA Quincy will occasionally escort in small xAK TFs. Chenango will remain in theater to handle the shuttling of short-range F43 squadrons from Para to the Aleutians and vice versa. Wasp is likely to retire to the West Coast. CenPac: IJ carriers remain close to Tarawa. SoPac: Two small xAK TFs have arrived at PP on a supply run, escorted by a small DD Tf. We expect opposition from the IJN tomorrow. SWPac: The engineers finished unloaded at Port Moresby, and all but the heavy equipment has unloaded at Milne Bay. No detection. The big renforcement convoys will pass New Zealand's north cape tonight. DEI: Small air battles at and near Padang. Nothing major is going to happen unless and until Japan commits major reinforcements. That will take weeks due to the yellow-road system. Things look good as more troop TFs are on the way to Oosthaven. Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues. China: I think Steve is shifting around some troop in the Chengchow vicinity to meet perceived threats from the Chinese army just to the south. This may create new opportunities for that army to hit relatively small stacks that get exposed. Where to From Here? Given the big dump of enemy intel that occurred over the past few days (Steve's comments in various threads), what is the Allied long-range plan? (1) Focus on the DEI - continue building and occupying good bases in and bordering the Java Sea and dump as many troops as possible into the theater; thus, when the time comes to move forward in a major campaign, the Allies will have a huge stockpile of troops already in theater; (2) Continue to "work" bases that threaten Japan's position in the Pacific: Paramushiro, Tarawa, Ndeni, Pago Pago, Milne Bay and Port Moresby; (3) as time goes on, look at expanding further from the current Allied MLR - Merauke and some of the bases to the west are strong possibilities; (4) try to hold upper Burma as long as possible. Steve can overwhelm any Allied position in the Pacific, given the strength of his assets and the Allied focus on the DEI. That's acceptable from an Allied point of view. What I want to do in the Pacific is make Japanese moves as costly as possible and give Steve so many problems that he can't attend to the all and isn't quite sure what to do.

Miller -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 3:12:42 PM)
"Steve can overwhelm any Allied position in the Pacific, given the strength of his assets and the Allied focus on the DEI" If he concentrates all his remaining assets and uses them properly then yes, he can. However, history suggests he can't or won't. Whilst this game is effectively over as a contest now, I cannot see it lasting beyond mid 43 in any event.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 4:14:20 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Miller "Steve can overwhelm any Allied position in the Pacific, given the strength of his assets and the Allied focus on the DEI" If he concentrates all his remaining assets and uses them properly then yes, he can. However, history suggests he can't or won't. Whilst this game is effectively over as a contest now, I cannot see it lasting beyond mid 43 in any event. He's out and out said he's about out of fuel. I don't see how he can overwhelm much of anything and still make HI/airframes/ships. Run him out of gas. How long can he operate CVs near Tarawa? Invade places as far away from his held fuel centers as possible. (Kwajalein and vicinity?) Run him out, put his fleet and merchant marine in port, then crush him.

Panther Bait -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 4:17:49 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: Miller "Steve can overwhelm any Allied position in the Pacific, given the strength of his assets and the Allied focus on the DEI" If he concentrates all his remaining assets and uses them properly then yes, he can. However, history suggests he can't or won't. Whilst this game is effectively over as a contest now, I cannot see it lasting beyond mid 43 in any event. He's out and out said he's about out of fuel. I don't see how he can overwhelm much of anything and still make HI/airframes/ships. Run him out of gas. How long can he operate CVs near Tarawa? Invade places as far away from his held fuel centers as possible. (Kwajalein and vicinity?) Run him out, put his fleet and merchant marine in port, then crush him. Don't forget to hear the lamentations of his women. [;)] Mike

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 4:20:37 PM)
The three-part plan to win the game as soon as possible: 1) Don't let Japan pull off a sudden, last-minute victory in eastern Sumatra that would give her fuel 2) Expand north from Sumatra to isolate Singapore and discourage Steve 3) Further attrit enemy capital ships Those three items should be sufficient for the Allies to entice Japan into an unconditional surrender

witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 4:25:52 PM)
I might have lost track of it, but I thought various Japan players had revealed that, with the centers he has taken, he will have plenty of fuel and oil for a long time to come?

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 4:38:04 PM)
I think most of the analysis has concluded that in Scenario Two, Japan can operate fairly deeply into 1943 without taking Palembang. This would be affected by other things - for instance, Japan probably wouldn't want to be sending huge, gas-guzzling TFs to-and-fro for months at a time (as Steve has done). Also, Steve didn't take Balikpan, Miri, and Tarakan until pretty late. He still hasn't taken Samarinda ([&:]). So I don't think his situation is a "best case scenario."

richlove -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 6:34:02 PM)
Any chance, or any concern, that his posts in the other thread are maskirovka? I personally doubt it, but feel compelled to be the devil's advocate here.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 6:41:54 PM)
Certain players would certainly be capable of elaborate maskirovka's like that, but Steve isn't one of them. His DNA makes him such a straight shooter that even in a game in which giving misleading information is a time-honored tactic, he wouldn't bring himself to do it. Now, that's just the impression I've formed of him, but I'd stake my position in the game on it. Besides, the only thing that might really concern me would be India, and that is as safe as it can be since the KB is in the central Pacific.

JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 7:36:04 PM)
A possible line of approach, bsaically in the same direction you are goingwould be to grab bases in western Borneo to threaten what oil facilities he has. Can 4E reach Balikpapan etc from Sumatra or do you need to get closer?

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 7:49:33 PM)
The Allies are currently prepping units for Singkawang, which is held by four units. That sounds like a doable invasion. I need some time to buy units and get them to Oosthaven (the jumping off point for any invasion). I also need to get Billiton's airfield operational. But I can envision an invasion of Singkawang in six weeks or so if Steve doesn't attend to its defenses in the meantime. If the Allies hold Singkawang, Ketapang, Billiton, Toboali, Montok and Singkep, Singapore is shut down and there's no more shipping going to Rangoon. That might be enough to persuade Steve to concede. B-17D could reach Balikpan from Oosthaven, but not the B-17E. However, I think they E and F models should be able to reach Balikpan from Billiton (and Ketapang).

Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 8:35:37 PM)
[sm=00000613.gif] Concur that Sinkawang would be huge.

JohnDillworth -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 9:07:24 PM)
quote: simply brilliant! I think CR has written some case-law here. I have only been following a few other AAR's but I think every player has to be aware of the the Allies defending early here. If the Japanese player allows it the Allies would be crazy not to do the same.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 10:19:30 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Panther Bait Don't forget to hear the lamentations of his women. [;)] Mike Yeah!!! Where's my Mongolian war pony?!!!! [8D]

DOCUP -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/8/2011 11:48:41 PM)
This page gives me an interesting mental image. I'll paint it for you. CR is the coach of the Bulldogs whos just upset the number 1 ranked team to win the Rose bowl. Now the press is intervewing him after his big win. Love this AAR CR. Keep up the good work.

John 3rd -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/9/2011 8:04:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel quote: ORIGINAL: princep01 I have followed your AARs carefully for a number of reasons...what has really impressed me in comparing your game with Q-Ball and this one is that you adopted what appears to me to be a more aggressive tactical game in the early going....CR, my question is what caused this change (if you consider it a change)? Did the lessons gleaned from your game with Q-Ball have a significant effect on your play this time. I've never played a Scenario 2 game against Japan. Was the Q-Ball game your first Senario2 game? This is actually "the real me." I was equally as bold in my early games, but I was also boldy ignorant. I didn't really know what I was doing, so I blundered into all kinds of losses that were very painful. I lost more carriers than you would believe possible. Consequently, I decided relatively recently to impose on myself a strict discipline of caution that would allow me to have carriers later in the game. I employed this caution, which became an exteme uber caution I admit, in my games vs. Miller and Q-Ball. In my game vs. Q-Ball, though, I came uncomfortably close to losing by auto victory. So, when I started this new match, seeking a contest in which an experienced IJ player might shoot for auto victory, and in which he might have the advice and counsel of lots of experienced players, I knew I had to play much differently than I had against Q-Ball...and much smarter than I had played against Miller. Presto, my natural inclination to take chances was back in play. Honestly, though, I was pretty lucky to score some nice victories early on. Had I been stung, I might have crawled back into my shell. Instead, each bold act seemed to be rewarded, so that human nature and blood lust encouraged more. [:)] As a former opponent and avid reader of Dan's AARs, /I commented quite early on about this change in play style. I have admired it and greatly enjoyed it. Had he done this to me in a second game I would have been caught flat-footed. Translation: GLAD it happened to Chez! [:'(]

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/10/2011 6:28:20 PM)
8/29/42 Padang: The Japanese army here doesn't control any hexsides; so two divisions and two armor regiments are stuck until reinforcements arrive, which will take weeks or longer. I wanted to see if a naval bombardment after plenty of recon might be effective, so I detailed BBs North Carolina and Warsite and two CAs to give it a shot. Then I detached Warpsite thinking she'd slow the TF down too much. Then the TF went in during daylight hours and just sat at the hex (rather than making a nightime "in and out" run as was supposed to happen). Then prolonged fighter battles over the base depleted my CAP. Then 35 Bettys came in and put three torps into North Carolina. She has 22/67/11/1 damage. We'll see if she can make it safely to port - Cocos Island or Colombo. Meanwhile, the two CAs bombarded and did no apparent damage. DEI: I don't know what Steve is going to do about his isolated army at Padang. He's got to send reinforcements, but the Allies are in a position to meet and match any such relief efforts, which will take a fortnight or two to reach the base over the lengthy yellow-road system. This might develop into a meeting engagement (though at such low rates of travel it's questionable whether it can be termed "meeting") that will favor the Allies. Neither side has any hope of successfully attacking at present since the terrain is jungle-rough. The only hope for the Allies was to cut off supply and disrupt, but the failure of the bombardment mission makes that unpromising. Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues. Two Japanese units are one hex away. One of them is weak; the other might be a regiment or a brigade, I'm thinking. NoPac: The Allied ships are retiring in good order. Today, the Allies put up 60+ fighters on CAP, which did good work against repeated enemy raids. CenPac: Quiet at the moment. SoPac: Five Allied DDs went up against three IJ combat TFs including CAs Nachi and Chikuma. Four of the Allied ships were dispatched, while two or three IJN DDs were damaged. The AV of the IJ force at PP continues to fall steadily, so I think the Allies can simply stop trying to resupply the base. The Japanese aren't going to take it. SWPac: The reinforcment convoys passed the New Zealand cape in good order. Everything still looks nice and quiet at PM and Milne.

Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/10/2011 7:01:13 PM)
Bummer about N. Carolina. Re the isolated stack, bomb them and use arty bombardments to drain supply. Put an LCU in the "approach hex" to delay any rescue attempt if you have the troops.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/10/2011 7:06:50 PM)
About North Carolina: Oops. About Padang: I have units to the front of the hex and will send more if needed. I'll have gracious plenty warning of any enemy units heading down that long road to try to relieve the IJ army at Padang.

witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (11/10/2011 7:14:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cribtop Bummer about N. Carolina. Re the isolated stack, bomb them and use arty bombardments to drain supply. Put an LCU in the "approach hex" to delay any rescue attempt if you have the troops. +1. Supply will only cross friendly hex sides. Even if you can't evict them you can train up bombers and attrite them at the same time. Ground bombardment will give them experience, so that one's a toss-up.

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