RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/7/2012 10:03:07 PM)

11/6/42
 
Just when I think were on break a turn arrives in the inbox.  So, play may be sporadic, but not totally at a standstill while Steve attends to work needs.

NoPac:  A very important day at Paramushiro, where two construction engineer units and two Sea Bees come ashore.  The Allies now have 280 engineering squads and 50 eng. vehicles here.  Supply is at 50k.  The Allies should be able to make gooduse of the next four months of winter to build forts (currently level four), airfield and port.

CenPac:  Some supplies safely landed at Ndeni.  A large enemy TF of some kind is just to the east.

SWPac:  A SeaBee unit utlimately bound for Milne Bay will reach Townsville tomorrow.

DEI:  Quiet in the DEI as lots of engineers (most of a Sea Bee unit and an EAB) come ashore at Ketapang, where they were desperately needed.  This airfield will reach level one tomorrow, which will then allow me to air transport "soft" units in from Oosthaven.

Burma:  The Happy Stalemates continue.



Lomri -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/8/2012 9:34:03 PM)


Psst, while you are on break can we see a map of China? :)



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 2:06:50 PM)

I should be chagrined! Dismayed! Mortified! That I failed to post the China map as promised a good week ago. Here 'tis....

[image]local://upfiles/8143/49E4C1880CF142C98A547C0AAEF196F3.jpg[/image]



Lomri -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 2:17:29 PM)


Thanks! You were just seeing if I was paying attention. ;)




BBfanboy -> RE: China situation (2/9/2012 2:53:35 PM)

Looks like you have stymied Chez in China, and now you have experienced Chinese troops and higher morale.
The area to the south around Wuchnag/Kukong appears to have few Japanese troops. IIR, there is quite a bit of rough ground there to retreat into if the Japanese use their mobility against an incursion. Running down to the coast would cut a lot of east-west roads to West China, Hong Kong and Indochina.

Have any plans you can reveal at this time?



Canoerebel -> RE: China situation (2/9/2012 2:56:56 PM)

The Chinese will continue to seek opportunities to maul Japanese units.  That will be their main purpose for the next six months to a year.  They might make major feints towards important Japanese cities, coinciding with other major Allied offensives in the Pacific or DEI, just to cause maximum confusion.  But the Chinese won't actually move on any IJ strongholds (fortified bases) until the Allies are well and truly on the offensive in the South China Sea region in late 1943 or 1944.  At some point it is possible the Western Allies might invade coastal China.  If so, that would be timed to coincide with a major push by the Chinese toward the coast.



BBfanboy -> RE: China situation (2/9/2012 3:12:30 PM)

You are making general estimates of what you could do 12-18 months downrange! [X(]
No wonder newbies like me feel intimidated at the idea of taking on the experienced players in a PBEM - I am lucky if I can think far enough ahead to put the right mix of xAP/xAK in a port to load a unit when it first appears! [sm=dizzy.gif]
I will continue to read and learn from masters like you. [&o]



Canoerebel -> RE: China situation (2/9/2012 3:31:22 PM)

Experience means a heckuva lot in this game.  This is my third AE PBEM, which followed two very long WitP PBEM.  That's given me alot of time to try things - some of which didn't work on a spectacular level (a 1942 invasion of Wotje vs. John III), some of which somehow worked despite the multitude of mistakes I made (1943 invasion of Hokkaido vs. John III, 1943 campaign in DEI vs. Miller, and complete Sir Robin against Q-Ball) and some of which worked nicely (1944 invasion of China vs. Miller; Fortress Palembang vs. Chez).

I had no clue whatsoever in my early games, but playing the Allied side is pretty forgiving.  But I have a clue now, which helps see possibilities and concomatant needs far down the road. [:)]



Canoerebel -> RE: China situation (2/9/2012 3:33:13 PM)

There is no way I spelled concomatant correctly, but I stubbornly refuse to look it up.  I know how to pronounce it, I know how to use it in a sentence, and two out o' three aint bad!



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 3:34:56 PM)

Have to get the right heading back:  Das darf nicht var sein!, which suits this game perfectly.



Banzan -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 3:40:17 PM)

In my opinion, "wahr" would fit better then "var". The var (/var) always make me think of unix. [:)]



Miller -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 4:03:41 PM)

You have certainly done a good job with the Chinese. In my game I have captured every base in that screenshot apart from Chungking.



Schlemiel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 5:03:09 PM)

I'm of the opinion that Japanese players do themselves a great disservice if they don't capture those bases if they are capable (presuming something more important isn't on the menu). If you own Changsha and the rail line, you have major roads and rails all the way from Singapore to Fusan in Korea. You can move a lot of resources and fuel for free along that. That said, China is not really an easy theater for either side. There's a lot of mass that can punish you pretty badly for a misallocation, and if a few smaller units get routed for free, it kind of snowballs.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 5:29:45 PM)

Neither side in Burma is overpowering, but the Allies have been the aggressors for quite some time. The major IJ force (at Magwe) is isolated. Scattered IJ units are weak, with the possible exception of garrisons, which might be too tough for the Allies to tackle, at Prome and Rangoon.

The controlling factor in this campaign is Singapore. If Japan loses the ability to use Signapore, then it becomes impossible for Japan to supply Rangoon and to support an army in Burma. Both side probably realize this and are playing accordingly. Steve probably doesn't want to commit too much in Burma given the current threat to Singapore.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/6554121A345B4A46B47ED8153D512A93.jpg[/image]



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 5:36:12 PM)

If Chez is using Cam Rhan Bay for his staging area, I hazard to guess that he may be preparing for a weighted blow into your positions in Sumatra - knowing that he'll live or die in the campaign - going down in a blaze of glory & not feeling bad if he commits everything he has - because it'll make for an exciting few months of the game....



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/9/2012 5:54:56 PM)

Paullus, that's exactly what I think he should do. And he might. I'm still getting lots of SigInt for IJA units prepping for Palembang, though most of them are small units. The only large one thus far has been 4th Guards Division.

This map shows the Allied positions in the Java Sea (and South China Sea), where the Allies are expending the vast majority of their expansion efforts. Despite the committment of a large aggregate AV to these forward bases, the AV at the Sumatran bases has actually increased over the past severl months. Therefore, the Allies feel like they are in a strong position defensively even as they transition over to the offensive.

Major Allied focus at the moment is on Ketapang and Pontianak, with some hopes of moving on Singkawang before the end of the year. The Allies will also try to strengthen the garrison at Singkep and establish garrisons at Sambas and Sampit. Also of importance is the airfield at Djambi. Once built out that field should allow the Allies to control traffic in and out of Singapore.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CAF6BC4952694819B5A1CD01A7A9AA79.jpg[/image]



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 6:55:49 AM)

Has Chez got anything at Benkalis?

Are there any bases on Sumatra you could threaten should he take any interest in your Borneo expedition?

Have you anything that can recce Cam Rahn Bay to see whats brewing?

Only 150,000 more posts to catch up to GJ!



GreyJoy -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 7:13:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK


Only 150,000 more posts to catch up to GJ!



[:'(] it's a long way to victory my friend...a very long one. In the meanwhile i'll sit and rest a bit, waiting for you to come over....[8D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 1:08:47 PM)

If the Allies succeed in building big airfields at the South China Sea bases already in their possession, Singapore, Burma, and western Sumatra become useless to Japan.  Thus, there is no reason for the Allies to commit additional troops in those theaters unless Japan somehow stops the Allies from their current building efforts in that theater.  Look at the DEI map posted above and imagine each of those Allied bases with level five or six (or more) airfields.  Many of those will reach that leverl by the end of the year (or early 1943).

If Steve surprises me and does manage to stop Allied progress in this theater, I would of course look around at other possibilities.  I'd consider western Sumatra, Java, the Celebes, etc.  But I'm betting that the South China Sea is going to be the main area of operations for 1943.



Schlemiel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 4:04:53 PM)

While I certainly agree that those theatres become useless to Japan with your positions, I wouldn't automatically write off an operation towards Singapore.  It provides a very valuable forward base if it can be reasonably take, as well as securing your flanks from smaller raids out of there (presuming Chez has fuel, he can get enough to Singapore to support raiders and such by rail).  The real question, which I trust to your analysis, would be the cost/benefit of such a move.  To my mind, it depends on how firm his line of resistance is at Cam Rahn Bay, Samah, eastern Borneo, and the islands east of Manilla.  If other posters are right and Chez tends to rely on a defensive game along a strong MLR, it's possible Singapore could be had on the relative cheap to give you an even better staging base than Oosthaven.

If I were Chez, right now, I'd basically try to stall you with small garrisons in Burma (with a decent defense at Pegu) while I tested you in Sumatra.  If Sumatra holds (and it should), I'd pull back to the jungle line at Moulmein for defensive purposes and pull some extra troops toward Indochina to fortify the clear coast.  You'll have a lot of issues suppressing that with just bombers at this point in the war, with bases in Borneo.  Shrinking parts of the Empire which can't be held makes a lot of sense.  Of course, I'd also be basically scrapping naval construction to save the economy and focusing on air R&D and creating layered defenses in the territory I had.  He can still make the conquest of Japan incredibly tough on you.



zuluhour -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 8:26:27 PM)

Thanks for posting the China map. I was very curious about the situation from Kukong west. It is far more vulnerable than I suspected. I am surprised every JFB does not make a play for Kweilin while pinning major Chinese units east. I don't know what happens when Chungking falls, but it can't be good. It does not even appear you need the Burma road open as you are hunting him. I do more clicking in China related to supply for resting units than I do in Burma shuffling air groups.

Regards,
Zulu HQ
01/10/1943
head TWIT


[image]local://upfiles/37319/BDD4A54D91C54845BD2A80E5D7A4DF94.jpg[/image]



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 9:52:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Schlemiel

While I certainly agree that those theatres become useless to Japan with your positions, I wouldn't automatically write off an operation towards Singapore.  It provides a very valuable forward base if it can be reasonably take, as well as securing your flanks from smaller raids out of there (presuming Chez has fuel, he can get enough to Singapore to support raiders and such by rail).  The real question, which I trust to your analysis, would be the cost/benefit of such a move.  To my mind, it depends on how firm his line of resistance is at Cam Rahn Bay, Samah, eastern Borneo, and the islands east of Manilla.  If other posters are right and Chez tends to rely on a defensive game along a strong MLR, it's possible Singapore could be had on the relative cheap to give you an even better staging base than Oosthaven.

If I were Chez, right now, I'd basically try to stall you with small garrisons in Burma (with a decent defense at Pegu) while I tested you in Sumatra.  If Sumatra holds (and it should), I'd pull back to the jungle line at Moulmein for defensive purposes and pull some extra troops toward Indochina to fortify the clear coast.  You'll have a lot of issues suppressing that with just bombers at this point in the war, with bases in Borneo.  Shrinking parts of the Empire which can't be held makes a lot of sense.  Of course, I'd also be basically scrapping naval construction to save the economy and focusing on air R&D and creating layered defenses in the territory I had.  He can still make the conquest of Japan incredibly tough on you.



I think we have been through the "Test Sumatra" stage, thats why there are a few IJA Divs surrounded at Padang.

However the line of approach to the HI from here is a hard one, major lines of resistance can be built on Borneo/Vietnam, Phillipines, Formosa, Okinawa. All which can be overcome but time consuming and maybe expensive.

This is why approaches from the north or the Pacific are popular as they chew up distance quicklyand dont require major land battles.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 11:07:06 PM)

Did I somehow suggest that the Allies weren't interested in Singapore?  They are, of course.  If the Allies succeed in buidling large the nearby airfields - mainly Singkaway, Singkep and Djambi, the last of which is already a lock - then Singapore is neutralized and there's a good chance the Allies can make a move on southern Malaya, from one side or the other.

Jeff is right about Steve having two IJA divisions isolated at Padang.  That's got to really trouble Steve.  Don't you think that would be an added incentive for him to try something major in Sumatra?  If not to conquer the island, then to send a relief column?  With all the SigInt prep-for-Palembang information I'm getting, I am watchnig out for this (but also licking my chops as I think such a move is far too late).

I'm not all that concerend about closing on the Home Islands.  I'm kind of operating on the assumption that holding Palembang (and Magwe) for the entire game, choking off fuel from western Sumatra at some point, and then controlling shipping access to Miri, Brunei, Balikpapan, Samarinda and Tarakan at some point in 1943, will starve out Steve.  If I'm wrong in this assessment...well, I'll just keep working my way north throughout '43 and '44.



zuluhour -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/10/2012 11:13:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


quote:

If I'm wrong in this assessment...well, I'll just keep working my way north


Sounds like something Mr Jackson might have said in the valley



Schlemiel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/11/2012 12:38:38 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If the Allies succeed in building big airfields at the South China Sea bases already in their possession, Singapore, Burma, and western Sumatra become useless to Japan.  Thus, there is no reason for the Allies to commit additional troops in those theaters...


That's what I read and was thinking you were just going to completely write off and bypass there (the Malaya landing can get expensive even with air superiority). I'm just wondering how Chez might approach freeing those divisions. You can transport a surprising amount of supply from western Sumatra to Eastern, though perhaps not as frequently as you would like (I found in my current ai game that dropping supplies in Sabang kept Palembang and Ooosthaven comfortably supplied and fuel flowed up very nicely to Sabang). That said, as Chez has already discovered, it's a little too easy to get surrounded or your lines cut off in the slow slog through the jungle there.

For whether you can completely starve out Chez, I'm nowhere near qualified to say. You will certainly give him issues and a weak point you ought to be able to exploit, but I'm not certain he'll collapse on his own under normal defensive fighting (at least for a couple of game years). It will be an interesting test case, really, if he's a good economic manager (and I have no idea on that front).



Insano -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/13/2012 6:32:38 PM)

Hi Canoerebel, perhaps a bit of an odd request but could you give us an idea of the strength of your forces on the West coast - particularly California? Maybe even one of those nice screen shots where you write in the AV on the map?

You have mentioned a lot about the political point situation being a restriction for the allies. I'm curious at this stage of the war, end of '42, if assets are piling up on the West Coast or if you are able to keep them "cleaned out". I assume Los Angeles is your primary port of embarkation. Particularly interesting is anything with AV, especially divisions as these could be used to retake Japanese strong points.

Of course you always want more political points but does the 50PP per day "feel" right? You have mentioned it as a factor several times in this AAR so from my vantage point it seems to be about right. The PP restriction for Indian units crossing the border plays in to this discussion as well, though by house rule.



Schlemiel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/13/2012 7:04:10 PM)

While we are at it, question for the peanut gallery. How would you go about dealing with 20k av in level 9 forts in heavy urban terrain with 1000 fighters on cover and heavy aa concentration. Oh, and the base has 16 million supplies. And don't say ignore it...


I'm also curious what (and why) people pick their primary embarkation ports on the west coast. I have mostly always used San Francisco.


For the pp point question, if you use the little shortcuts and do the "cheats" (assigning ground units to unrestricted air command) you can pretty much have most of the ground units you want bought out by late 1942 (with the ability to keep up with new units as they come available). My guess is Canoerebel has a division or two waiting for buyout on the west coast and a number of divisions awaiting buyout in India.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/13/2012 7:15:04 PM)

I won't do a map, since it would take more than one to cover the West Coast.  Here's a list of my major troop concentrations on the West Coast:

San Diego:  550, Forts 3.
Los Angelese:  432, 3
San Francisco:  670, 4
Portland:  556, 0 (oops, need to start building)
Tacoma:  294, 3
Seattle:  1,283, 8
Victoria:  258, 5
Vancouver:  407, 4
Prince Rupert: 303, 4

Traditionally, I use three main ports of embarkation - one in the north for troops going to NoPac; one in the center for troops going to CenPac, and one in the south for troops going just about everywhere else.  This helps me keep things "straight."

I only have one restricted division currently on the West Coast - 43rd at San Diego.  This unit is 98% prepped for Lautem.  Buying this unit is low priority right now.  My highest priority is Indian units, which I'm feeding into the DEI.  Second priority is to buy Australian units to reinforce New Guinea or to possibly begin laying the groundwork to invade Timor.  I bet I won't be able to buy 43rd Division until sometime in 1943.



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/13/2012 7:16:53 PM)

"The only winning move is not to play....."

Seriously, you don't let the allies get into that position in the first place. There is no reason in the world why Chaz should not have finished off Sumatra when he had the chance. As soon as he got behind the curve, he continued to ignore what was obviously becoming a rather large allied base astride his main positions in the DEI (and a dagger aimed at Singapore) while wasting good assets in areas of the Pacific that had no strategic value - without the capture of the DEI resources.

CR played a pretty aggressive game from the beginning (though not Nemo-like, it was still more "in your face" than most allied positions) and managed to turn China into a scary theater for the Japanese, plus put the hurt on Japanese carrier strength at the very time when it was necessary for rapid Japanese conquests.

There are still a lot of Japanese assets on the board though, and despite having a lot of obsolete aircraft lying around - he can still throw a lot into the field. The game isn't quite over yet - but unless we see some massive movement towards Sumatra in the next month or so, it soon will be.



zuluhour -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (2/13/2012 7:22:07 PM)

As Dan appears to be busy at the moment, I'll tade some novice info.

In regards to the impregnable fortress, if possible, bypass it, if not starve it or wait for the "gadget".

I prefer San Diego for debarkation SoPac, San Fran for CenPac and Portland for NoPac. No reason other than organization relief. I do find it easier to reach blue water from San Diego for some reason without attarcting to many subs.

As for PPs, while this is my first stab at PBEM, I think the system works well and one should not cheat it. I believe I bought out the 24 Inf Division for something like 2800 PPs, almost two months worth. The Division was destined to serve in Italy and Africa and I'm quite sure it would have been very difficult to exert enough political muscle to do this if at all. I think the model abstracts the political situation in the allied camp well. The Aussies wanted their troops home to protect the mainland unlike Brittain, "Winnie", whom thought the CBI was where they should fullfill their destiny. Because the the game allows commanders to be replaced as well through the PP system choices should be far reaching, far ranging and difficult.



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