Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (3/15/2011 11:04:02 PM)
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Fortress Palembang: I appreciate Bullwinkle suggesting I read Nemo's AAR vs. One-Eyed Jacks. Did so at length last week just before leaving for the camping trip. Learned that my concept of the fortress is vastly different from Nemos. I am not comfortable going all-in - I do not want to leave India vacant by shipping the British, Australian, Indian, and Singapore troops to Palembang. There's a good chance that Steve is experienced enough to jump all over that. So my version of Fortress Palembang is simply a major speedbump that I think will work more effectively than would concentrating the Allied troops at Soerabaja or Batavia. Palembang is a chess game. (I think Nemo plays?) It's a round-about proposition where you can quickly lose track of who is the hunter and who the hunted. As I tried to suggest above, and you digested by reading that excelelnt AAR, there are certain "everybody knows" factors in the game at this point, and one is the needfulness of P. to the Japanese player, if not immediatley then eventually. However, that truism may or may not be in play if he's an auto-vic or die guy. On the third hand, you might "do a Nemo" at P., go all in, and he doesn't even find out for months if he has his cap set on Oz, or Hawaii, or India. He has pretty deep starting pockets in Scen. 2. Or, you could wave your arms, jump in the air, and hint by e-mail feint that he really ought to come look at the briar patch, you having readied your tar baby in Nemo fashion, and he yawns and attacks elsewhere instead. Nemo did P. up brown, but he knew by then he had an opponent who would probably bite, and he had sixteen moves prepared for after that bite, and even what to do if he didn't, against all odds, take the bait. You don't know your opponent's mind very well yet. That said, I would tend to think that, all else being equal, you're going to lose those scattered LCUs to no good ends, even the pile at Singapore. I'd try to make him pay retail for them. You don't know he's an auto-vic or bust player yet (his former opponent says nay, but hey, you're not acting like yourself either, Sir Used-to-be-Robin.[:)]) I don't know the balance point on India and Palembang force dispersal, but if you're going to do P., do it at least medium large I'd say. If he's in the game for the long term he has to have it relatively soon, if not immediately. I've been shown analysis in PM that the other well-known "truth"--that P. captured highly damaged is a deadly blow to the Japanese--ain't necessarily so either. You ought to maybe run a few numbers if that's part of your calculation.
|
|
|
|