RE: Winter Idea......Comment (Full Version)

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Skanvak -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 4:40:20 PM)

Speedy did you saw my suggestion about a validation scenario?



Speedysteve -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 4:44:51 PM)

I did. It would require an immense amount of effort for it to be simulated accurately and also bearing in mind that when you launch attacks the model isn't geared to make every single attack follow 100% that of history.



karonagames -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 4:50:18 PM)

quote:

BigAnorak, how far do you think the Russian Army should advance during the winter against a German Army in prepared defenses in a coherent, straight line, assuming the Russians have 2 million more men? In other words, do you think the additional Russian numbers will grossly outweight the some additional German numbers and much higher unit density, compared to historical?


The evidence we are are seeing, if you treat the game as a simulation, is that the Sovs can advance as far, or perhaps further than they did historically regardless of the type of defence the axis puts together. I am in the third turn of the Blizzard in my first PBEM as the Soviets, but Speedy, also in his first PBEM as Axis, had struggled to knock my defences off balance and has started the Blizzard much further west than historically, and although he attacked through the snow to capture Kharkov, he has not been able to put together anything other than a linear defence , although I have just started to run into Fortified zones, and he is knocking my breakthrough tank brigades back quite effectively.

Because I have not been under too much pressure defensively I have been able to train up 5 reserve Armies in the rear and am now able to get them into echelon to hopefully overstretch his defences and breakthrough to the Dnepr, and hopefully maintain a long-term attack. I am averaging about 45 successful attacks a turn which is about what Trey was achieving when I was the Axis, but I had Leningrad, 1 hex of Moscow, Tula, was close to Voronezh and got Rostov with a para drop, so I has plenty of real estate I could afford to lose. I still think that having a "Blizzard Buffer" to retreat through is the best chance to start 1942 well, but I admit it is tricky to maintain a controlled retreat, and prevent the retreat becoming a rout.

2 million men is 200 rifle divisions or 20 armies. Even if only half of them had rifles they could still do a lot of damage.

So, to answer your question, I have seen lvl 4 entrenchments in woods and heavy woods, delay the Sovs for 4 Turns, I have also held major cities like Moscow for 4 Turns, but had to retreat 6 hexes in the next 4 Turns. The terrain in the South is less helpful, so I don't think lvl4s would last as long.

So, maybe, in absolute best case defensive environment, you could reduce the territory regained by 20-25%, and maybe your units would be stronger in March and recover more ground to reduce overall gains by another 10%

Here is defence I have been experimenting with called "Corps Stongpoint", but it only works if you can build along the diagonal hex line between Pushkin and Rostov, and you are unlikely to build the southern strong points up to level 4.

This held fine for 4 turns in the North, but the South got a pit messy so I switched to Linebacker.

edit: Against the AI.

[image]local://upfiles/21516/098841079BD048F794C9235211334830.jpg[/image]



bednarre -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 5:43:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey


quote:

ORIGINAL: bednarre
<snip>

Do you really think the German reinforcement schedule would not have been radically changed, or would the German High Command have rather let the Russians enter Berlin in 1943? Also, the Germans would have gone to full scale war production a year earlier, with Panther and Tiger designs starting. Also, Allied Bombing was in its infancy in 1941-1942. Finally, the Germans would have slowed the Russians even more than they historically did if the German Generals suggestions to straighten the line and avoid encirclements had been heeded. If the Germans could successfully fight outnumbered 6:1, why can't this be duplicated in the game? Either the German Generals were dead wrong or the game has some gross inaccuracies.


I think a lot of things would have changed, and I've no objection to in-game triggers that, for example, improve german production if more than 10 soviet divisions cross into poland or rommania.

As for the secondary point though, no I do not agree that the Germans should have been able to fight the soviets at 6:1 odds regardless of the time frame. If you look at the actual correlation of forces in major battles in the eastern front, the germans typically broke down when the force ratio was more like the conventional 3:1

Kursk: 2.5 :1 -> german defeat
Bagration: 3:1 -> german defeat
Fall of Berlin: 4:1 -> german defeat

The germans definitely had a qualitatively superior army vis a vis the russians, but they were not 6X better.

One thing I always try to keep in mind when reading post-war German memoirs is that its in the interest of the surviving german generals to assert that:

A) All mistakes were made by hitler
B) All good decisions were made by the general staff
C) If only the memoirist had been given proper support in operation X he could have won the war

Basically, the surviving german generals want to make themselves look good in their memoirs, which tends to make them less than neutral reporters of fact.



I think Guderian was not factoring in the T-34! When the Russians were able to employ massive amounts of tanks in late 1942+ the whole equation changed. The Germans simply did not have the tank strength at all parts of the front for effective defense, especially with a convoluted front! Before this time the Russian infantry could not in general effectively attack with just a 6:1 advantage. Also, the Russians did not attack all along the entire front for most of the war. Using superior overall numbers, the trick was to send overwhelming force (10:1) against the weakest German/non-German position. This strategy has difficulties when the defender had uniform densities over the front (straight lines), and there are significant mobile reserves. The Russian counterattack at Rzhev in December 1942 was a complete disaster! The book "The Korsun Pocket" is very informative about these relative capabilities. The Russian tank superiority in the battle (February 1944) was 4:1 initially, but the Germans only lost about 138 tanks total In comparison the Russian Army lost 569 tanks (total writeoff) in the 1st Ukranian Army and about 250 tanks in the 2nd Ukranian Front. Most significantly, two-thirds of the trapped German troops were sprung.

I am not implying that the Germans were supermen. I am implying that the German Army got much better combat capability, man for man and tank for tank, than the Russian and Allied Armies. I think US Army historians concluded the German advantage was 1.6:1 against the US Army. It must have certainly been higher against the Russians. This assumes the German Army was adequately supplied of course. Finally, looked at killed statistics (battle casualties) for the Eastern Front. In the book "Campaign of World War II Day by Day", the Russian Army totals are given as 11.0 million! The German Army totals were 2.4 million killed, and 3.5 million wounded. The KIA ratio is thus around 4.5:1, covering the whole campaign. This includes losses with the Russians having overwhelming superiority in tanks and artillery.

When did the Germans ever have 3:1+ over any of its adversaries, for a large sector of the front? Even the Allies did not! Tactical competence, mobility, good communications, and good generalship are more important in acheiving local superiority.



bednarre -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 5:50:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

quote:

BigAnorak, how far do you think the Russian Army should advance during the winter against a German Army in prepared defenses in a coherent, straight line, assuming the Russians have 2 million more men? In other words, do you think the additional Russian numbers will grossly outweight the some additional German numbers and much higher unit density, compared to historical?


The evidence we are are seeing, if you treat the game as a simulation, is that the Sovs can advance as far, or perhaps further than they did historically regardless of the type of defence the axis puts together. I am in the third turn of the Blizzard in my first PBEM as the Soviets, but Speedy, also in his first PBEM as Axis, had struggled to knock my defences off balance and has started the Blizzard much further west than historically, and although he attacked through the snow to capture Kharkov, he has not been able to put together anything other than a linear defence , although I have just started to run into Fortified zones, and he is knocking my breakthrough tank brigades back quite effectively.

Because I have not been under too much pressure defensively I have been able to train up 5 reserve Armies in the rear and am now able to get them into echelon to hopefully overstretch his defences and breakthrough to the Dnepr, and hopefully maintain a long-term attack. I am averaging about 45 successful attacks a turn which is about what Trey was achieving when I was the Axis, but I had Leningrad, 1 hex of Moscow, Tula, was close to Voronezh and got Rostov with a para drop, so I has plenty of real estate I could afford to lose. I still think that having a "Blizzard Buffer" to retreat through is the best chance to start 1942 well, but I admit it is tricky to maintain a controlled retreat, and prevent the retreat becoming a rout.

2 million men is 200 rifle divisions or 20 armies. Even if only half of them had rifles they could still do a lot of damage.

So, to answer your question, I have seen lvl 4 entrenchments in woods and heavy woods, delay the Sovs for 4 Turns, I have also held major cities like Moscow for 4 Turns, but had to retreat 6 hexes in the next 4 Turns. The terrain in the South is less helpful, so I don't think lvl4s would last as long.

So, maybe, in absolute best case defensive environment, you could reduce the territory regained by 20-25%, and maybe your units would be stronger in March and recover more ground to reduce overall gains by another 10%

Here is defence I have been experimenting with called "Corps Stongpoint", but it only works if you can build along the diagonal hex line between Pushkin and Rostov, and you are unlikely to build the southern strong points up to level 4.

This held fine for 4 turns in the North, but the South got a pit messy so I switched to Linebacker.

edit: Against the AI.

[image]local://upfiles/21516/098841079BD048F794C9235211334830.jpg[/image]



BigAnorak, I guess my question was about what you think the Armies would have been able to acheive historically (psuedo-historically), given these new situations (more Russians and better prepared Germans)? I understand the game is being tweaked at the current time.



bednarre -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 6:01:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

The problem with entrenchements in the blizzard is that there are plenty of cases where they just didn't hold. The 18th Army saw the 2nd Shock Army go through the lines and advance perhaps 20-30 miles across the Volkhov...in February when one would assume the 18th had time for at least lvl 2 or 3 forts all along the line.  Now, the supporting Soviet armies didn't help out and come the warmer temperatures the 2nd Shock Army was surrounded and captured, but that is not a winter issue, it is a Soviet coordination issue.

Even the 6th panzer division (the one that blew holes to make heated bunkers) was forced to retreat because they had the spare explosives and the know-how to use them, units on their sides did not and they were outflanked.  Very few units had enough know-how (and that was key, better use of charges could have dug holes for many.

Just the use of logs burning to keep warm pin-pointed entrenched positions and could be brought under fire.

The myth that entrenched units held better has some support - towns and villages did indeed become focal points and places where units could defend.  However, it also has some liabilities in that there just weren't enough towns, and entrenchments in the open had some serious problems.  Accounts from that winter speak of not the snowfall, but rather the extreme temperatures that kept the snow soft and blowing - the drifts cut off units as easily as roaming cavalry or ski troops.

I find the anecdote about the Russians swarming a burning out village the germans retreated from for the sole purpose of using the softened ground to dig into for their own shelters enlightening.  The Soviet Armies suffered mightily as well in the weather, but they did have more persons able to deal with it.

Not until the Germans learned to deal with it could they fight in it, then (in a bit of irony) the next winters were never as cold.



Had the German not held the villages for long periods of time they would have been completely overrun. It seems alot of the Russian breakthroughs were causes by cavalry, which had an easier time going through the forests and bypassing the villages. On the other hand, the cavalry did not do very well against German combat units, but did terrorize the German rear areas (which is what the Russian General Staff wanted). Thus the penetrations of the Russian Army are missleading. This helps explain alot of the success with the German counterattacks, as well.



Emx77 -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 6:36:35 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: alfonso
b) Experience: this game is complex (more complex than chess). My opinion: Yes (but not 100% sure...) Your opinion:?


I would say these two games are not directly comparable for many reasons. If you want to talk about complexity of WitE it would be better to compare it to similiar games. For me it is TOAW, not chess.


quote:

ORIGINAL: alfonso
My opinion is that perhaps some blizzard issues might be due to inexperience. Your opinion is that the game is flawed. I would like to ask you why? Only because there are no AARs with succesful strategies? You are one of the most skilled Axis players, your Axis army also vaporizates during blizzard?


Frankly speaking, I have just experienced blizzard against AI (result you may see in one of my previous post on this thread). In my game vs Oleg he decided to quit on turn 18 so we never got to the blizzard. I tried to presuade him to continue, as I knew what would blizzard do to Axis Army, but he decided to give up, because by all merits Axis won. And I agree with him. After Soviets lost almost whole Ukrain, Moscow, and Leningrad it wouldn't be fair (or historical) that only because artificaly imposed winter rules they have ability to do what they can do in this game. That's why I think something is not right here. If are Germans overpowered in summer, answer is not to introduce ice age blizzard to achieve near historical results. At the begining of '42 results (manpower, number of AFVs...) are maybe more in line with history, but IMO the way we are get to these results are too artificial and is ruining game enjoyment and overall experience. There must be another way to make balance except alone winter and blizzard.



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 7:09:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Emir Agic
In my game vs Oleg he decided to quit on turn 18 so we never got to the blizzard. I tried to presuade him to continue, as I knew what would blizzard do to Axis Army, but he decided to give up, because by all merits Axis won. And I agree with him. After Soviets lost almost whole Ukrain, Moscow, and Leningrad it wouldn't be fair (or historical) that only because artificaly imposed winter rules they have ability to do what they can do in this game.


That's right, I surrendered because IMO that was the only morally and historically right thing to do. Emir tried to persuade me to continue because there's this magical thing called "blizzard" that will suddenly undo everything brilliant Axis has done up to that moment. I never played through the blizzard before, but IMO he won, if there is some magic stick to undo his deserved victory, I didn't want to have anything with it anyway.

It was a bizarre situation, I wanted to surrender and accept his victory, he was trying to persuade me to continue. [;)]

Anyhow, I do think super-summer-Germans were instrumental in his success. Still, super-Germans are overpowered but need lots of skill to be used right. He did use that skill, and super-summer-German discussion is better left for some other thread, because super-winter-Soviets are bigger problem right now. Super-Russians need almost no skill to be used.



alfonso -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 10:00:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko


That's right, I surrendered because IMO that was the only morally and historically right thing to do. Emir tried to persuade me to continue because there's this magical thing called "blizzard" that will suddenly undo everything brilliant Axis has done up to that moment. I never played through the blizzard before, but IMO he won, if there is some magic stick to undo his deserved victory, I didn't want to have anything with it anyway.



What a pity you did not continue with the game to check if there really is that magic stick...



Emx77 -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 10:31:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: alfonso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko


That's right, I surrendered because IMO that was the only morally and historically right thing to do. Emir tried to persuade me to continue because there's this magical thing called "blizzard" that will suddenly undo everything brilliant Axis has done up to that moment. I never played through the blizzard before, but IMO he won, if there is some magic stick to undo his deserved victory, I didn't want to have anything with it anyway.



What a pity you did not continue with the game to check if there really is that magic stick...


Hmm, our turn 18 is still on the Slitherine server... I was also eager to know what would happen in winter '41. But on the second thought maybe we can make some prediction of outcome based on my experience vs AI. Untill turn 25 I had beaten Soviet AI similarly as I beaten Oleg (capturing Moscow, Tula, Orel, whole Ukrain, but was 1 hex short of encircling Leningrad, destroying some 300 divisions). I made some mistakes which I didn't repeat vs Oleg, but there is high probability that Oleg would be able to do more damage then AI during winter (he is human after all). And AI did this.



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 10:33:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: alfonso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko
That's right, I surrendered because IMO that was the only morally and historically right thing to do. Emir tried to persuade me to continue because there's this magical thing called "blizzard" that will suddenly undo everything brilliant Axis has done up to that moment. I never played through the blizzard before, but IMO he won, if there is some magic stick to undo his deserved victory, I didn't want to have anything with it anyway.


What a pity you did not continue with the game to check if there really is that magic stick...


If there was a magic stick to undo all that I lost to his summer supermen, I'd be throwing the game away in disgust, so it's better I didn't even try.

At that moment, I just concluded that Germans in the hands of skilled player are supermen. I still hold that to be true. In the meantime scientists have found another, even more dangerous specie of supermen, Supermenicus Sovieticus Winteriensis. There are experiments being conducted in the science lab trying to see which of these genetically engineered super-species is indeed stronger: Supermenicus Sovieticus Winteriensis or Germanicus Summeris Uebermenschi.

Here's a short video smuggled out of our biological lab! (We use Japanese engineers to test this issue, as they are proven to be very efficient, just ask WITP veterans who tweaked Jap production) [;)]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bhoWfC1L9k&feature=related



Emx77 -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 10:50:36 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

In the meantime scientists have found another, even more dangerous specie of supermen, Supermenicus Sovieticus Winteriensis. There are experiments being conducted in the science lab trying to see which of these genetically engineered super-species is indeed stronger: Supermenicus Sovieticus Winteriensis or Germanicus Summeris Uebermenschi.



My summer victory can be attributed to Wehrmacht secret super weapon.

[image]http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/images/11/feb/seriously.jpg[/image]

Unfortunately, my scientists forgot to told me it is very unrealiable in winter conditions. [:D]



Q-Ball -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 11:02:37 PM)

Bob: I like your CORPS idea, but I'm more interested in ideas that will work against Humans. There is a pretty easy counter for that defense; leech through the gaps. You'll have to pull back after only a turn, and you'll even be pinned if they go through either side.

You can counterattack the leechers, but that's going to get difficult/expensive before too long, if the Reds just shove 3 Rifle divisions in there.

There just isn't a way, IMO, to prevent at least 1-hex turn without paying heavily in blood otherwise.



karonagames -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (2/28/2011 11:26:33 PM)

quote:

Bob: I like your CORPS idea, but I'm more interested in ideas that will work against Humans. There is a pretty easy counter for that defense; leech through the gaps. You'll have to pull back after only a turn, and you'll even be pinned if they go through either side.


It is a work in progress - some cavalry did break through but I hit it with rested panzers from a city. Anything in the gap between the stacks gets a deliberate attack from 6 Divisions which usually works. Each stongpoint has a fallback hex. I am thinking that putting 2 divs and a regiment in the front line, and 2 regiments in the fall back hex to stop the leeching. This would also allow the defense to switch to linebacker. The line only has to hold for four or more turns. It is very hard work to set up the criteria to make it work.

I am going to look at diagonals further back, and organise infantry corps so that once the corps passes the line, they leave a division behind to start digging, while the other 3 units keep advancing to build a blizzard buffer. Once the Blizzard arrives the 3 divisions fall back to the hopefully level 4 entrenchments, and the 4th division blocks the leechers. This plan would require motorised divisions to man the strong points when I usually try to get them into winter quarters. There is a diagonal in front of Kharkov that might work, as I know I can usually get 6-8 hexes beyond Kharkov, but then I lose Kursk and Belgorod as winter quarters. Swings, roundabouts - I will figure it out eventually.




Farfarer61 -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 2:24:36 AM)

Perhaps it is not magic and you copuld have seen what happened (please). I would be curious to see if you lost the big cities in blizzard the stormed back in 42.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko


quote:

ORIGINAL: alfonso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko
That's right, I surrendered because IMO that was the only morally and historically right thing to do. Emir tried to persuade me to continue because there's this magical thing called "blizzard" that will suddenly undo everything brilliant Axis has done up to that moment. I never played through the blizzard before, but IMO he won, if there is some magic stick to undo his deserved victory, I didn't want to have anything with it anyway.


What a pity you did not continue with the game to check if there really is that magic stick...


If there was a magic stick to undo all that I lost to his summer supermen, I'd be throwing the game away in disgust, so it's better I didn't even try.

At that moment, I just concluded that Germans in the hands of skilled player are supermen. I still hold that to be true. In the meantime scientists have found another, even more dangerous specie of supermen, Supermenicus Sovieticus Winteriensis. There are experiments being conducted in the science lab trying to see which of these genetically engineered super-species is indeed stronger: Supermenicus Sovieticus Winteriensis or Germanicus Summeris Uebermenschi.

Here's a short video smuggled out of our biological lab! (We use Japanese engineers to test this issue, as they are proven to be very efficient, just ask WITP veterans who tweaked Jap production) [;)]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bhoWfC1L9k&feature=related





2ndACR -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 5:16:33 AM)

Turn 33

There basically is no German army left. Only place that holds is Keiv. But it will probably be cut off and killed next turn. I cannot pull back fast enough. I might as well do the summer offensive and just start railing my troops back to Germany come Oct and start all over again in 42.

This is total BS and starting to piss me off.

93 attacks launched, 84 succeed. 80% are deliberate attacks. 4 holds this turn.

The average German div is now down to 5000 troops and unready. Only the few on refit are above that number but they are useless. Same for arriving new div. They hold for 1 attack and then get kicked aside.



Skanvak -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 6:51:26 AM)

German supermen? I have never manage to replicate what the german did historically in most wargame (except recently in defiant Russia). The point is that how can we know the german are supermen in WitE without comparing to what they did historically. Old boardwargame (BWG as oppose to PCW, good neologisms) check that they would acheive historical result if historical moves are done.

With computer and game that huge, it should have been done. A good programmer can make a bot that do just that. Having human testing to see what can be abused is good but insufficient, the simulation have to be validated against the fact. I red that from most BGW designer back in the 70's and 80's.

For a game as hhuge and detailed as WITE, we could have expected that to the least.



karonagames -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 10:05:14 AM)

quote:

There basically is no German army left. Only place that holds is Keiv. But it will probably be cut off and killed next turn. I cannot pull back fast enough. I might as well do the summer offensive and just start railing my troops back to Germany come Oct and start all over again in 42.

This is total BS and starting to piss me off.

93 attacks launched, 84 succeed. 80% are deliberate attacks. 4 holds this turn.

The average German div is now down to 5000 troops and unready. Only the few on refit are above that number but they are useless. Same for arriving new div. They hold for 1 attack and then get kicked aside.


Seeing similar story in the game with Speedy, and I think both our games suffered from the armaments bug. We had it for 14 turns, so part of the reason for the low TOEs may be that the armaments fix was not big enough for the Axis and/or it did more damage than we thought in the 14 turns. Speedy also invested in Fortified Zones, which I think are a waste of time - I didn't build any in my test game with Trey.

What is harder to figure out is where the Sovs are getting the MPs from to make all these attacks. In the Test Game with Trey, he was going all out and was managing around 45 successful attacks per turn, which is manageable. I have gone 80+ in turn 1, 40odd in turn 2 because Speedy pulled back, and 80+ in the third turn. A lot of my units have been getting the max number of MPs - 16, so can make 2 deliberate attacks. I cannot figure out what code changes, made since the test in October would cause this to happen. This definitely looks to me where the focus should be. Once the average number of attacks goes above 60 I know from my Tests against the AI on challenging that the Axis are in for a very hard time.

I also think the unready rule needs to be looked at - at least 20 attacks were made with unready units.

Poor Speedy has another 10 turns to suffer so we can suck as much data as possible out of the test, but at least now we have a test bed for testing any changes, but I think it will be at least another month before any code changes will get into a beta patch, so the only sticking plaster I can offer in the meantime is the set of house rules suggested in another thread. These should keep the number of attacks in the "manageable" threshold of 35-45 per turn.



2ndACR -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 10:31:12 AM)

This was started Beta 3........we added the hot fix armament fix that Joel posted.

I still say the auto slash of CV is the big culprit. Let the attrition do the work, and it will, but at least then the German has a couple turns to bloody the nose of the attacking Russians while in forts.

But would love to have my winterized units. That would make it worth everything.

Building the forts only starts the digging process. I use it rarely. I will have to check, but I don't think I have a German armament point in my pool at all.



Speedysteve -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 10:37:56 AM)

Hi 2ndACR,

As BA says the armaments fix we applied MAY not have been enough to make up for the deficit/effect it had.

I will almost never use Fortified Zones again. I only used them to build a 2nd line of defences but IMO it seems my mass use of them POTENTIALLY coupled with the Armamaments changes + other test changes may have combined to totally nerf me as the Axis. I have not had any armamaents or rifle squads in my pool since Mud turns.....

The good thing is we have a good test platform to test everything now. We can go back to the start of our Blizzard and try other things (me not building forts for example).....



2ndACR -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 10:46:57 AM)

I hardly ever see squads in my pools. Don't think I have since release. LOL

But I also don't watch production all that closely. As long as i can place a unit on refit and see it's strength climb, I am happy. No control unlike Japan in WITP where I watched production like a hawk. LOL

I understand it may have not been enough. You have to watch those forts. They will suck your manpower dry quickly. Start disbanding them to get those men back into the pools for use.

Other than that, good luck and lay in a good supply of tissues.





karonagames -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 11:01:13 AM)

quote:

I still say the auto slash of CV is the big culprit. Let the attrition do the work, and it will, but at least then the German has a couple turns to bloody the nose of the attacking Russians while in forts.


It is definitely another area that needs looking at. In the game with Trey, my forts in the AGN sector definitely stymied him for a couple of turns, but I went through Speedy's like a knife through butter, but we still have to figure out the chicken and egg of the low TOEs and and high unreadiness levels. At turn 27 in my Game with Trey, I had 3 unready GE units, Speedy had over 30, and his TOEs were incredibly low compared to mine.

There is definitely something at the root of this and every turn will get us closer to figuring out what it is.



color -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 11:44:22 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

quote:

I still say the auto slash of CV is the big culprit. Let the attrition do the work, and it will, but at least then the German has a couple turns to bloody the nose of the attacking Russians while in forts.


It is definitely another area that needs looking at. In the game with Trey, my forts in the AGN sector definitely stymied him for a couple of turns, but I went through Speedy's like a knife through butter, but we still have to figure out the chicken and egg of the low TOEs and and high unreadiness levels. At turn 27 in my Game with Trey, I had 3 unready GE units, Speedy had over 30, and his TOEs were incredibly low compared to mine.

There is definitely something at the root of this and every turn will get us closer to figuring out what it is.


I agree but with a different angle.

I think there should be a drastic CV slash in '41 blizzards due to difficulty to operate german weapons in the cold. But as the germans find ways to lubricate their weapons and otherwise resolve other similar problems with their hardware, the slashing of the CV should lessen. As an example, come 1.1.42 the CV slashing could be less. I would rather prefer a gradual lessening, a little each turn over time, to avoid gamey tactics where people hide away until a magic date is reached, but a monthly change is better than nothing.

So I'm kinda voting for what I get the impression happened historically: The initial shock from harsh weather which impacts greatly and hands the iniative to the russians.
However the Germans adapted and found solutions so the effects lessened over time.
I get the impression this was the 'standard' all over the line in history:

- Lack of winter uniform but impact lessened over time by troops picking up clothing from dead or when winter equipment start to trickle to the front.
- Supply devastated by non-operational vehicles and German horses not standing up to the cold. However the Germans introduce the panje horse in their divisions in great numbers which alliviate supply problems.
- German lubricants don't work in the cold. They find substitutes and are able to operate their weapons, maybe at a reduced efficiency until the engineers come up with more permanent solutions.
- German locomotives struggle in the cold, but by removing delicate precision parts they are made operable throughout the winter.

So, many of the modifiers in game seems to reflect upon a historical event, however I advocate that perhaps what seems to be out of whack is that most of them do not lessen over time (I only know of attrition that actually lessens during the winter). By gradually lessening all the effects then I get the impression you get a model that better reflects reality.

That the effects do not lessen also give sense to that if a German try to hold, suffer heavy casualties, and then experience a further CV slashing due to casualties, on top of the other modifiers .. a german rout is inevitable in january/february '42. Too many things just add up together over time.

However if you were to give the initial shock effect on the troops and lessen the effects over time, then I postulate that the heavy casualties will balance out the lessening of the effects. In the end winter '41/'42 hopefully it should lead to a beaten up German Army, but even though beaten up it should be more resilient, effective with higher CVs ratios to manpower than what you saw in blizzard '41.




Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 11:49:14 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak
Seeing similar story in the game with Speedy,


Big, is this the "we told you so!" moment? [8D]



Oleg Mastruko -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 11:59:08 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: color
However if you were to give the initial shock effect on the troops and lessen the effects over time, then I postulate that the heavy casualties will balance out the lessening of the effects. In the end winter '41/'42 hopefully it should lead to a beaten up German Army, but even though beaten up it should be more resilient, effective with higher CVs ratios to manpower than what you saw in blizzard '41.


Color, that is pretty much along the lines of my initial suggestion:

- Make the blizzard last shorter (4 turns, 5 max)
- Make the attrition affects between snow and blizzard more smilar (as it stands now snow and blizzard are two totally different things and it should not be so IMO)
- Probably insert a turn or two of blizz later on, in random weather games

I still think it's the weather model that needs refinement, even more so than CV model. With blizzard lasting, realistically, 4 turns, you get both the more realistic weather, and also this negative shock in combat that we have now (but for a 70% shorter period of time)



Speedysteve -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 12:17:26 PM)

Oh don't worry about the tissues. It's for testing only....if it was a real game then maybe I'd need a few tissues[;)]

Appreciate your patience. End of the day if things need finding, sorting or fixing we'll get to them. As always though it just takes a little time to test and iron out to get the best solution in the overall bigger picture.



color -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 12:21:30 PM)

Oleg, I see we both think along the same axis and that we share a common opinion [:)]

I also think that it can be ok to leave the blizzard on as long as it might be now, but if the effects gradually dimishing over time, you will get a more fluent and natural transition between blizzard and snow. I can see the reasoning in that the first blizzard turns is a real shock, but people adapt and learn to cope, so come end first winter the difference between snow & blizzard can be less marked.

Anway, slashing the number of blizzard turns vs reducing their impact over time is an interesting if-else or maybe both ... I can see the reasoning behind there could be more snow turns  .... in the end both approaches share a common goal.



karonagames -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 12:22:40 PM)

Ok I am going to throw out a winter idea to discuss publicly before taking it into the development Forums.

The current first winter rules create a huge spike in changing the relative combat effectiveness of the 2 armies so that one day the Axis are relative supermen and the next day they are wrecked, which clearly is not a true reflection of reality, but it is a means to end that can be achieved within the existing game mechanics, and there is no denying it is not as elegant a solution as some of the other mechanics in the game.

We have to figure a way to smooth this out. By December 1st, the German Army was already overstretched, and many units were at 50% TOE. Currently the game engine doesn't reflect this, and most German infantry divisions get to December at 70-80% TOE, and then the first winter rules kick them down to 50%. Rather than tinker with the combat routines, which are probably the part of the game that works the best, I think use could be made of the attrition routines during the mud and snow turns to gradually attrit the axis down to more historical levels, on the basis that wear and tear would increase in the mud and snow compared to clear weather.

So, if we can get the Axis going into the blizzard weaker, then use a mix of morale and supply to reduce combat ability further, this might be enough so that the current CV adjusters are not needed.

The logistic brake that seemed to exist up to October 2010 when I last tested the blizzard seems to have gone and the Soviets currently can attack as hard as they like for as long as they like. We have yet to find where the brake cable broke so the brakes can be reapplied.

There will be no quick fix to achieve this. My guess is that the next patch will fix the brakes on the soviets, and reduce the height of the "spike". Smoothing the spike out is a much bigger job.



karonagames -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 12:34:13 PM)

quote:

Big, is this the "we told you so!" moment?


The only way I was every going to cut through the hyperbole and exaggeration of how bad the blizzard was,was to see for myself, and there is no quick way to get through 25turns when you have volunteer testers who have day jobs. Up until now the AARs have not mentioned the high number of attacks being made by the Soviets. If I had seen this sooner, the alarm bells would have gone off sooner. There is no doubt that seeing that in most cases the Axis were not going into the blizzard in a strong enough position clouded the issue. It is only recently that the Axis have done better prior to December, and therefore allow the loss of territory to be measured more accurately.

I can only test the code I am given.

In January I asked for players to post screenshots and send me saves. How many have I received? Zero.



janh -> RE: Winter Idea......Comment (3/1/2011 12:47:43 PM)

This suggestion sounds like one rational step for fixing this problem.  It may tie in to the discussion Q-Ball raised in the other thread about covering ground and taking objectives vs. a Sir Robin, either a Russian one in 41, or a German one later.  Perhaps if the fighting in summer and autumn 1941 would be be fought out harder and both the Russians and the Germans would enter Winter in a more exhausted state, then the effect of the fresh Russian reinforcements would be felt more dramatically for a couple of weeks even without significant combat modifiers (just supply and morale ones).  This, with a fine tuning of the Russian MP and supply problems of winter 41, could recreate the initial "blizzard shock" and the following ebbing out of the Russian tide after their initial rush? 



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