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Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 8:11:09 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: squatter
A few observations on the combat around Lenningrad:
First, well played, going for the backdoor jugular (sounds a little like gay slang, that) has gotta be the way forward.
To the fighting itself: All three battles were close shaves, winning at odds 2.2:1 or 2.3:1.
When you look at initial CV calculations, none would have succeeded on unmodified CV odds (take the final battle - 507 vs 348 = 1.6:1 or so). So how did the Axis end up with 2.3:1 in this battle?
First: terrible elementary error from Oleg. His defending stack is fighting at 80% command modifier. At this point in the game, this is perhaps the most important hex on the map bar the Narva backdoor hex. And Oleg didnt see to it that the three units holding it were under the same army command. It would have cost him 1AP to see to this, and that 20% alone would quite likely have made the difference. Same applies to one of the other combats. You of course are also at 80% on this one, but that was through necessity needing to commit two korps to the attack.
Second: air power. The Luftwaffe showed up in force, the VVS didnt show. This is a big force multiplier. Has Oleg got his ground support setting ramped up at this crucial juncture? Has Oleg ensured that his air units are in range, and that they are under the command of one of his Rating: 6 air commanders? Who knows, but for whatever reason his men are cursing the empty skies above them.
Third: No SUs showed up for Oleg. Has he got a good commander controlling this hex? Has that commander got plenty of hardcore artillery SUs attached? Or was he just extremely unlucky in his initiative rolls? We'll have to ask Oleg those questions.
It's fairly predictable that Oleg is going to be outraged especially by that third battle where infantry in a city hex with level four forts have been bounced, but at least one, possibly more elementary errors on his part have played massive roles in the outcomes.
Good points, Squatter.
And no worries gents, the discussion is helpful for us noobs.
While I happily discuss and show my own errors, I remain unqualified for deep observations of the Soviet defense. I try to show the facts as they exist and I can detect for the Soviet side, and what I did, basically. While not discussing future plans heavily. I don't think Oleg reads my AAR, but I do fear little birdies whispering in ears, as it were.
Now, with that said:
The 2 hexes to the east weren't imposing at all. Just 3 ants stacked, and not fortified heavily. I later ran into the higher quality infantry, on the way towards Moscow. So, his choice was to defend Moscow heavily. At least with the infantry.
I don't know if he has grasped the importance of SU's and lining up the command as force multipliers, You would have to ask him in his AAR, I suppose. I was surprised not to run into masses of them in these attacks. And after the first attack succeeded, it helped my confidence about further attacks.
I doubt he left a good commander or tons of SU's in the area. He didn't really send units into the Leningrad pocket, recon shows roughly the same amount of units this turn. So, except for switching a cavalry unit out for an infantry unit, no significant change made that I could detect in the Leningrad metro area. They just aren't packed in there like sardines, like I expected to see. Given the force, I didn't think Rokko was in there.
So, except for the 2 Crops attack, I wasn't very worried. I just don't get the impresssion that this was a do or die fight for the Soviets as the withdrawal towards the Volkhov made it easier to move my forces.
I almost left the more difficult hex as tried to get around into the backdoor. But as I juggled forces east in planning, I just wasn't getting the combat power to the point of attack to hit the backdoor this turn. I might have been able to with my Panzers. But a deliberate attack across a major river really worried me. So I took out the 2 smaller stacks, while withdrawing the Panzers for a turn.
But having the stacks ready to go for Leningrad, just sitting there.... My curiosity got the better of me. I decided to attack the last hex on the south of the river. And it worked. I was amazed, but didn't quite all out of my chair as I really committed heavily to the attack.
The work I have done to maximize the commands, without over-stuffing them paid off. The Corps are all 4 units. The armies 3 Corps of 4. I have borrowed a Corps from Second Army, as they aren't very active, just screening. but that Corps remains under Second Armies command. And good commanders are assigned, generally. So my SU's came to the party.
My air force, is close by, as interdiction hurts more and more. I don't like to move out of fighter cover, at all. So I was well within range for the Luftwaffe to aid the combat in force. They remain an effective force, as I don't use them for any manual missions other than fueling the Panzers, and tons of recon. Haven't bombed airfields or anything else since turn 1. These attacks were the first of the entire turn, so the Air Force came out for the first 2 attacks. The third didn't receive their aid.
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