RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (Full Version)

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BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/14/2011 10:22:59 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Looking forward to it!

(not the spreadsheets, but the discussion)

About to start my S2, so wish me luck


S2? [&:] Anyways, good luck! [:)]




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/14/2011 10:32:36 PM)

Turn 3- 3 July 1941

Operational Situation Report

At a first glance, it looks like AGN took it easy this turn

[image]http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/4189/t3nwsitrep.png[/image]


but that's an illusion. It's obvious for me that Q-Ball has built up 4. PzGruppe HQ's, limiting operations to get a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Velikaya. If I already felt bad about not spotting the opportunity to cut the spearhead off the main body of the AGN, now I'm feeling much worse. 4. PzGruppe flanks are secure though. To the north, I'm pretty sure Q-Ball has deployed something which is not an HQ. And to the south, the HQ is not alone. I doubt that's an airbase, to be honest.

Q-Ball has restored the situation I had created between the Berezina and Drut rivers with relatively ease

[image]http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2569/t3westernsitrep.png[/image]


He's setup a perimeter defending his position on Orsha and Mogilev. I'm surprised that the 45th Rifle Corps hasn't been encircled, that's a signal that German motorized units had a severe shortage of MP's. It's nice to see how Q-Ball is rushing the 9. Armee to support 3. PzGruppe, he's getting infantry here really fast. Further west, elements from 4. Armee supported by Security Divisions have cleared completely the Bialystock pocket.

In the Western Ukraine Q-Ball has done an excellent work tidying up the mess I had made of the breakthrough he achieved on Turn 2

[image]http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/5105/t3southwesternsitrep.png[/image]


not only he has broken the web I had laid around his units, he's also managed to make good gains eastwards. There's an option, though, to throw again a monkeywrench into AGS gears

[image]http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/3430/t3sheptovkagap.png[/image]


circled in blue there is GrossDeutschland Regiment, in red, the three most powerful Red Army units in the vicinity. The bad news is that the Rifle Division won't be able to launch a Deliberate assault on GD positions, it gets there with just 4 MP's left. Prepping the grenadiers with massed VVS assaults, and then doing several hasty attacks with the Tank Division and the Motorized Division, and one of the units in pocket south of Sheptovka, to culminate with a hasty attack with the Rifle Division doesn't look to me as a sound plan. But it could well be the only opportunity to break, again, the encirclement. On the other hand, now I'm really thin in the Ukraine, and I don't think I'll be able to check properly the German advance if I lose even more units.

The only “good news” is that to support his rescue operation, Q-Ball had to send north half the 11. Armee, so the pressure on the Southern Front isn't half as much as it could be:

[image]http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/8928/t3southernsitrep.png[/image]



I need to retreat from here, fast to close the gaping hole just east of Kirovograd. Another piece of “good” news is that the Lvov pocket still holds fast

[image]http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/7786/t3lvovpocket.png[/image]


Not that Q-Ball is throwing a lot at it, but Red Army units managed to held back three deliberate attacks in the hexes I highlight in the picture. While this is not bad at all, I need these guys to make of themselves a real pain in the posterior of AGS. To the east, it seems that we can surprise a couple airbases...

[image]http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/9804/t3nofreelunches.png[/image]


In Soviet Russia, there is no such a thing as a free lunch :(

Industry Evacuation Plans

This turn I get 144,500 rail points, which is a lot. While quite a few reinforcements have appeared around Moscow and Leningrad, I don't think I will be spending much railcap shuttling them to defensive positions. Leningrad forces can get to their positions on foot – the enemy is really at the gates – but looks like I must send reinforcements, quickly to the beleaguered Southwestern Front. I decide to reserve 40,000 railcap points for troop movement, and spend 104,500 on evacuating industry east.

I took great pains to collect in a spreadsheet the industrial facilities which will probably menaced from now till Winter: basically everything west of the line Cherepovets – Voronezh – Rostov. How much stuff is there for starters? A lot: 200 armaments factories (55% out of the total production capacity), 97 heavy industries (40%) and 51 vehicle factories (35%). I decide to evacuate the huge industrial hub of Dnepropetrovsk, with 16 armament factories, and start working on Poltava (following Flavio advice):

[image]http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/4897/t3evacuation.png[/image]


That gobbles up 102,000 points out of the allotted railcap. I'll move now the troops and see at the end of the turn what to do with the leftover (if there's any).

Operations: Baltic States & Leningrad

I decide to evacuate 27th Army from Estonia, leaving the Tallinn garrison to distract as many German forces as possible, and a thin screen of NKVD troopers covering Narva

[image]http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7696/t3estoniaoperations.png[/image]


leaving two rifle divisions in Tallinn is a big gamble, given the very acute and real shortage of troops I have.

General M. Purkaev takes command of the just arrived 28th Army and starts organizing the militias recruited in Leningrad, manning the forts covering the immediate approaches to the city

[image]http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/7112/t3leningradoperations.png[/image]


while the three Northwestern Front armies (27th, 22nd and 11th) cover the possible lines of advance of 4. PzGruppe in depth. 1st Mech Corps is tasked with the mission of holding Pskov and its vicinity, supported by a laughably weak Tank Division and some airborne troops. The idea is to soak as much MP's – and damage – as possible, before the German motorized units burst through the gaps created by the German infantry (Q-Ball has an ArmeeKorps worth of infantry already in position).
Further south, the Dvina is held by a screen of NKVD skirmishers while the 24th Army deploys covering the land bridge right flank and the important railroad hub at Velikiye Luki.

Operations: Orsha – Vitebsk landbridge and the upper Dnepr

I've still to reorganize the Western Front, I'm relying on Corps Hqs to keep things in order, since now every little AP counts

[image]http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/8327/t3dneprline.png[/image]


isn't really a very impressive defensive line, though one which cannot be kicked around like a rag doll unless Q-Ball brings some infantry to the party. 9. Armee is still one turn away from being in position, so it means it won't be able to attack until turn 5. It's probable than Q-Ball will try to clear the western bank and make some headway across the land bridge. There I have the 20th Army, perhaps the most powerful formation under Western Front command. I have deployed the infantry hugging the river line leaving behind a semi-hedgehog of units in Reserve mode. Not many will commit – if any at all – but I expect this kind of deployment to make harder encirclements or deep penetrations into my rear.

Operations: Odessa

I forego for the moment to make any decision on what to do in the Western Ukraine until I setup the Southern Front forces. The armor is well to the north, but it wouldn't be too difficult for it to swing and hit me by surprise.

Discretion is the better part of valor

[image]http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/8725/t3southernoperations.png[/image]


the Southern Front retreats towards Krivoi Rog and Nikolaiev, not looking behind. Another NKVD regiment decides to hug a PzDiv. More interesting is the defense of Odessa

[image]http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/6731/t3odessastand.png[/image]


I organize the city defenders under the 9th Rifle Corps. Yet another little present for Q-Ball to handle on his flank.

Operations: Western Ukraine

Against my initial feelings I decide to try a relief operation of the pocketed units around Proskurov. The VVS receives orders to mass and pound Grossdeutschland positions, enough bombers are mustered to do 4 attacks on the grenadiers. They inflict very little losses, just a few AA guns – I think – and increasing fatigue of ground elements. Next step is assembling the attack force under the 9th Mech Corps HQ (CO is K. Rokossovsky), and the grizzly operation starts, with two hasty attacks by the 20th Tank Division:

[image]http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/737/t320thtkdiv1.png[/image]


and

[image]http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/7474/t320thtkdiv2.png[/image]


next comes the real “assault”. This is no assault, this is carnage

[image]http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/2189/t3costlyvictory.png[/image]


a flock of kamikaze flying pigs, supported by the suicide dog bombers division force the mighty GrossDeutschland to retreat, HURRAH! The just relieved forces attempt to cause trouble on German spearheads, but MP's are extremely limited and nothing is achieved

[image]http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/5549/t3desperatemeasures.png[/image]


if just the LSSAH KG Khmelnik had been pushed back... at least we've tried.

The battle for the Western Ukrain is all but lost. Time to conduct an operational withdrawal towards the Dnepr, leaving behind some force to hold up German spearheads – or rather to entertain them:

[image]http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/7315/t3southwesternfinaldisp.png[/image]


I adopt a mostly “hedgehog” stance, but covering well the nearest German motorized units. Q-Ball is now spread out thinly, perhaps the hedgehog will dissuade him from pushing hard next turn. I really need some breathing space here, and I don't have the means to create it!!!

Fortification Works

Defeatism?

[image]http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/44/t3moscowdefenses.png[/image]


No, not really. Those are the Moscow militias. Not only they're crappy troops, but they're understrength. So I get them to do something useful while they gain some strength.

With 34 AP's left I can create 4 Fortified Zones. Two of them are setup around Kharkov, where I have also started to work

[image]http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/9325/t3kharkovdefenses.png[/image]


and two are assigned to Stalino, where I have a lot of homework to do:

[image]http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/5920/t3stalinodefenses.png[/image]


Factory Evacuation II

I'm left with 19,838 after having railed the troops appearing in the Urals and sending 7 divisions to the Southwestern Front. I use these points to get out 1 point of Yak-6 and 8 points of KV-1 production are evacuated from Leningrad and 4 points of U-2VS from Moscow. I end up wasting 318 points of railcap.




ComradeP -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/14/2011 10:54:11 PM)

Nice attack, I was wondering whether you could attack one of the units on the perimeter of the pocket, but didn't think you would have enough units in the area to make a hasty attack on GD. He'll more or less have to bump at least some of the units that started the turn in the pocket out of the path of his infantry. Your dispositions in the pocket itself were still quite good in terms of the territory you covered. His infantry needs to move through 3 to 4 hexes at the point closest to where his infantry seems to be coming from, and that will cost 9 to 12 MP's all by itself if he moves through the former pocket, so you're slowing down his infantry fairly well.

Given the situation, I don't think Southwestern Front is doing nearly as poorly as some people think.

One suggestion (or two in one): as soon as the Axis get in a position from where they'll probably attack Tallinn or Odessa next turn, evacuate the garrison by sea. Otherwise, he might let them retreat into a coastal hex so the units will be isolate. Neither city is worth losing divisions over.

As a final note: good job on putting the "lesson learned" about always checking MP's and what you can do with available MP's into practice.




Encircled -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 2:21:32 AM)

S2?

Soviet Turn 2!

Nice attack btw




Flaviusx -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 2:32:26 AM)

If I had the rail cap, I'd rail U2VS forward into cities that will be captured...





Speedysteve -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 8:19:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

If I had the rail cap, I'd rail U2VS forward into cities that will be captured...




LOL[:D]




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 11:35:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Nice attack, I was wondering whether you could attack one of the units on the perimeter of the pocket, but didn't think you would have enough units in the area to make a hasty attack on GD. He'll more or less have to bump at least some of the units that started the turn in the pocket out of the path of his infantry. Your dispositions in the pocket itself were still quite good in terms of the territory you covered. His infantry needs to move through 3 to 4 hexes at the point closest to where his infantry seems to be coming from, and that will cost 9 to 12 MP's all by itself if he moves through the former pocket, so you're slowing down his infantry fairly well.

Given the situation, I don't think Southwestern Front is doing nearly as poorly as some people think.


It was really close. The VVS and Rokossovsky were the artifices of that "victory" (note the double quotes, this is no victory but the propaganda machine will be surely able to put a spin into it).

Your observations wrt his infantry are right on spot. That was the goal, to keep the infantry separated from the motorized spearheads as long as possible. If he makes contact with the current state of affairs... well, that will be GAME OVER.

Regarding the performance of Southwestern Front... I'd love to see critical comments on that. I am not sure of having managed the situation perfectly. Turn 1 opening was a crushing catastrophe, and Turn 2 Vinnitsa breakthrough just put the "cherry" on top of a very sour cake. Disasters can't really be "managed", it's more about "damage control" than "management".

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
One suggestion (or two in one): as soon as the Axis get in a position from where they'll probably attack Tallinn or Odessa next turn, evacuate the garrison by sea. Otherwise, he might let them retreat into a coastal hex so the units will be isolate. Neither city is worth losing divisions over.


The plan was to force him to assault in force so if routed/retreated they were evacuated by sea "for free". The CV's there are in the 30's forties... if I see him massing a lot of German infantry I will certainly do as you say. If he covers Odessa with Romanians, well, then it can well be that I will be holding that till Winter. And it will be good for me that the 11. Armee gets distracted. With Tallinn the plan is the same, to distract the 18. Armee, though holding the city is out of the question.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
As a final note: good job on putting the "lesson learned" about always checking MP's and what you can do with available MP's into practice.


I'm not particularly worried about "looking bad". I think it's way more useful - and interesting for prospective readers - to acknowledge failures and analyze them.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 11:38:06 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
If I had the rail cap, I'd rail U2VS forward into cities that will be captured...


[:D] You know what? I'm getting increasingly fond of the silly things :) And who knows, perhaps one of those night attack squadrons might drop one of their 50kgs bomb right on top of Guderian's or Manstein's command post :)




ComradeP -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 4:34:55 PM)

quote:

The plan was to force him to assault in force so if routed/retreated they were evacuated by sea "for free".


If you can do that, it's nice, but it's going to be tricky in both cases, as both for Odessa and Tallinn, there's no real need for the Axis to occupy all hexes adjacent to the cities prior to an assault.




kirkgregerson -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 4:39:51 PM)

Bletchley_Geek,

What map mod are you using? Did you change the font on top of that as well?

Thanks




Rafo35 -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 4:58:25 PM)

Great AAR.

One observation :

quote:

these air losses are perhaps the lowest I've got from a human opponent on turn 1. I don't know whether Q-Ball refrained of pushing too hard the Luftwaffe on the VVS airfields.


In my GC41 campaign as the German, I inflicted only half those losses ! I did "as usual", click several times on the AI button...




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 5:25:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

quote:

The plan was to force him to assault in force so if routed/retreated they were evacuated by sea "for free".


If you can do that, it's nice, but it's going to be tricky in both cases, as both for Odessa and Tallinn, there's no real need for the Axis to occupy all hexes adjacent to the cities prior to an assault.


That's quite true. It's not Sevastopol... and it's quite an important observation, Comrade. I'm betting everything on that my opponent not being able to stack enough firepower without resorting to a three-hexside attack [:(]




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 5:27:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kirkgregerson

Bletchley_Geek,

What map mod are you using? Did you change the font on top of that as well?



I am using Redmarkus' mod as it is available on the witewiki. Though I'm not sure it's the latest version or it's complete (seems like the images for the Balcans are missing for the closer zoom levels).




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 5:30:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rafo

Great AAR.

One observation :

quote:

these air losses are perhaps the lowest I've got from a human opponent on turn 1. I don't know whether Q-Ball refrained of pushing too hard the Luftwaffe on the VVS airfields.


In my GC41 campaign as the German, I inflicted only half those losses ! I did "as usual", click several times on the AI button...


Ahhhhh, my 1942-43 tormentor!! [:)]

As WitE has gone through 1.0 to 1.05 I've noticed a steady decline on those losses. I started a GC with version 1.00 - against sitito who posted above - and I got something like 6,500+ airframe losses on turn 1. I started a new one under 1.04.39, and it was considerably smaller, like 5,000 airframes destroyed. The trend has, if anything, strengtened by recent changes to the air model (if I understand the implications from the patch notes). I also think Axis players tend to go less postal about crushing the VVS on turn 1, and prefer the LW to go postal on the RKKA [X(]




ComradeP -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 6:08:29 PM)

quote:

That's quite true. It's not Sevastopol... and it's quite an important observation, Comrade. I'm betting everything on that my opponent not being able to stack enough firepower without resorting to a three-hexside attack


Usually, a 2 hexside attack is enough, but as both Tallinn and Odessa have 4 hexes adjacent to them, even a 3 hexside is possible, hence why I advised you to ship your guys out when Q-Ball gets serious, as otherwise you'll lose them for little real gain.

Also: sometimes for some reason defensive CV's of units in ports decline notably when there's an enemy unit next to them. I'm still not sure if it's just FOW, as I've only seen it from the Axis perspective when attacking Odessa.




Tarhunnas -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/15/2011 7:48:32 PM)

Looking good! I like your attack in the Ukraine, but then I'm an inveterate forward defender.

At Leningrad, I would have put my trench line on the hills, but maybe you are covering them later.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 1:35:09 AM)

Turn 4 – 10 July 1941

We enter the third week of the war with a somewhat more positive outlook and more confidence on the fighting spirit of the Red Army. Q-Ball has achieved a few important victories, conquering Pskov ,establishing as predicted a foothold on the land bridge and taking care of the chaos I had created in the South. He's also done something I certainly wasn't expecting just north of Odessa.

There were 88 battles during Q-Ball's turn which turned out to be 1 Shatter, 14 Routs, 51 Retreats, 10 Surrenders and 12 Held. This is a significant slow down in the tempo of Axis offensive operations, there have been 20 battles less. The logistic issues I think Q-Ball has in the Ukraine and the lack of targets have both contributed to this decrease.

Operational Situation Report

The Finns start their offensive crushing 7th Army positions east of the Janisjarvi lake

[image]http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/4779/t4karelia.png[/image]


isolating in the process the 168th Rifle Division and really putting between a rock and hard place 19th Rifle Corps' 142nd Rifle Division. That hurts, especially the latter, since it's a pretty good division. It will be tough to cover the Svir river line.

There was no build-up of 4. PzGruppe, the railhead seems that was well beyond the 25MP limit, so German operations around Pskov have been certainly limited

[image]http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6826/t4nwsitrep.png[/image]


I ArmeeKorps 1st and 11th Divisions assaulted 1st Mech Corps positions in Pskov and its vicinity clearing out the city with little losses. Only one motorized division - 8th PzDiv – has taken part in the attacks, clearing the eastern bank of the Velikaya. The 3rd Tank Division repulsed two attacks from the German forces, having to retreat into the marshes east of Pskov. Northern Air Command recon squadrons detect the bulk of the 18. and 16. Armees approaching the area, as well as a whole Luftflotte worth of hastily setup airfields just west of Pskov.

Being Leningrad the main show for AGN, 16. Armee advances with two ArmeeKorps abreast in the general direction of Velikiye Luki

[image]http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/3884/t4velikiyelukisitrep.png[/image]


engaging and defeating without trouble the screening force I had left around the marshes at the fountains of the Sinyaya River.

The battle for the crossing of the Dnepr has just started, with the 3. PzGruppe forcing a bulge into the land bridge

[image]http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/5585/t4dneprbattlestart.png[/image]


57th and 49th PzKorps, supported by 5th ArmeeKorps infantry – that arrived with MP's enough to launch some hasty attacks – defeat three 20th Army's divisions and achieve a 20 miles deep penetration just south of Vitebsk. To the south, 8th ArmeeKorps 8th Infantry division takes Mogilev off the march, routing the paratroopers I had left behind. Surprisingly, 2. PzGruppe does not push towards Zhlobin. Guys, I'm really seeing HQ build ups pretty much everywhere.

On the plains of the northwestern Ukraine the drama of the Proskurov pocket seems to be drawing to a fairly quick end

[image]http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/5152/t4nwukrainesitrep.png[/image]


The infantry of the 6th Armee nails with nine inch nails the lid of the Proskurov gigantic coffin while the 24. PzKorps, which surely was pretty low on fuel, can only do an anemic push towards Zhitomir, not daring to attack the city nor staying within Soviet ZOC.

Rather than pushing towards Kiev, as I was expecting since that would have surely trapped yet another good slice of Southwestern Front, Q-Ball decides to go southeast, towards Kirovograd

[image]http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/1928/t4cherkassysitrep.png[/image]


and also somewhat surprisingly, he bypasses Cherkassy. Note the finger just northeast of Zhashkov, looks like Q-Ball tried to make a mini-pocket there but thought twice. Why is Q-Ball pushing in that direction, rather than towards Kiev?

[image]http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5883/t4umanpocketredux.png[/image]


Seems he's after a reenactment of the disastrous Uman pocket so he can get a free ride to Dnepropetrovsk. This was a bold move, and I mean to make Q-Ball regret it. I think it's quite feasible, especially with all of the Southern Front 2nd Cavalry Corps in the area. In Soviet Russia, there isn't such a thing as a free ride.

Industry Evacuation (Part One)

This turn I have to do a lot of troop movement, to anticipate Q-Ball maneuvers, so I spend 42,000 rail points evacuating the 7 Armament factories left in Poltava. I'll come back to this after operations and troop movement is executed.

[image]Operations: General Considerations[/image]


It's pretty clear that Q-Ball is aiming at securing the Donbass quickly in this game. However, I'm not sure that going there along the southern bank of the Dnepr is a better idea than going there along the northern bank, teaming up with 3. and 2. PzGruppe in a massive sweep to reach the Orel – Kursk – Kharkov line really quickly. Very much like in chess, dominating the center of the board is important, though not key.

Q-Ball position in the center allows him a lot of flexibility. He's got quite a few interesting options whatever I do. If I decide to hold fast on the eastern bank of the Dnepr, he might well go for a massive encirclement of Western Front forces deployed, with a long pincer starting out of his Orsha bulge and going southeast, and a shorter pincer going northeast through the Rogachev – Zhlobin sector.

The first possible plan to counter that possibility can be broken down into achieving two things. First, charge into a few selected of his motorized units in the bulge to menace his LOC or force him to do a deliberate attack to make any headway. Second, make sure that if anyone forces a crossing through Zhlobin, he won't go far after that. If this fails, he'll get his encirclement.

The second possible plan is to just pull back towards the east. But then, nothing will prevent him from just darting ahead and snatching Smolensk with 3. PzGruppe, as the 2. PzGruppe breaks through the Zhlobin – Smolensk axis, threatening, again, with a massive encirclement. Seems like I'd have the same result, but things would be much easier for him. None of the flanks wouldn't be bolstered by a major river.

In the south things are much clearer. I have to bug out from the stretch of land I hold north and northwest of Zhitomir. It's too easy that the Zhitomir “peninsula” becomes a trap. 2. PzGruppe could push southeast rather than northeast, which is indeed a huge and a tad too untimely gamble. But better safe than sorry.

The other goals there are also clear: encircle and attack when possible his spearheads just east of Kirovograd and north of Odessa. Even if the German infantry makes me pay dear for that, I think it will be a worthy sacrifice. The German Moloch wants his due

[image]http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/5734/molochb.jpg[/image]



Operations: North

The battle up north was lost before it even started, so I pull back some elements from the 7th Army quickly towards the Svir line

[image]http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/1619/t4finland.png[/image]


On the isthmus I relieve the isolated Rifle Division and get the few forces I can move into blocking positions. I think I'll lose two divisions, perhaps three.

Operations: Northwest & Leningrad

I keep in mind ComradeP observations, but I bet on surprising Q-Ball by leaving Tallinn garrisoned. Besides the flaw that ComradeP so switfly spotted, now I'm also starting to think that those two divisions will be badly needed in Leningrad. Tarhunnas made a good observation regarding the hills, those are nice spots to stand up. However, in two other games I manned the hills, and got surprised by a German lighting strike, losing the forts. I'm playing on the safe side here, perhaps too safe.

[image]http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/7325/t4nwops.png[/image]


I try to put as many ZOCs between 4. PzGruppe and the Luga river, as MP's allowed. I made a mistake moving the airborne brigade and the rifle division in the center, moving other stuff before realizing it, doh!

I think I've overdone the defense south of Pskov. My money would go for the Pskov – Luga axis for his advance, but who knows.

Operations: Smolensk Battle Begins

The battle for Smolensk and the crossing of the upper Dnepr starts with a bang. I order 20th Army to assault the positions of the two most forward German divisions, 19th PzDiv and 20th Motor Div

[image]http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/6708/t4smolenskops.png[/image]


the battles have been quite fierce. 19th PzDiv was substantially damaged

[image]http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/8749/t419pzdefeated.png[/image]


The success here – besides having the 1:1 → 2:1 rule - was that 19th PzDiv, very agreeably, ended his turn adjacent to the 1st Motorized Divisions. And these little critters pack some punch if you get too near. 20th Motorized got 10% losses but managed to knock out half the tanks I had launched against it

[image]http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/3131/t420mdefeated.png[/image]


This division was a bit run down, it was showing CV of 5 (which was actually 6). I'm actually liking quite a bit the “surprises” with the newest changes to FOW. It really spices things up.

Operations: Ukraine

Looks like last the two turns developments have allowed me to regain a bit my balance in the important Zhitomir – Kiev axis

[image]http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/9862/t4zhitomirkiev.png[/image]


I think I can put up some fight for Kiev. Note I said “some” not “much”. Tovarich Robinovitch at the Politburo has been making him self a pain in the rearguard, so we award him a well-deserved comission as zampolit to the Proskurov pocket. He annoys the men there so much that these, sick with hearing the tovarich tirades, try to escape from the encirclement. It was quite a long shot, but a Cavalry division stood ready to capitalize a “lucky” retreat by the GrossDeutschland regiment,

[image]http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/9800/t4gdbitesthedust2.png[/image]


which didn't materialize. I have also devoted some time to make sure the Germans won't do much next turn on the Uman – Cherkassy axis

[image]http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/8150/t4umancherkassyaxis.png[/image]


I'm no fan of bringing unfit troops close to the firing line but I didn't had much option, I felt I needed to have some presence just opposite Cherkassy. Note as well how I'm trying to strangle the German spearhead, but I can't get to hold it with both hands at the same time. The tip of the spear is 53 MP's away from the railhead, and his mates are, according to the UI, 19 MP's away from the railhead.

The opportunity to make life hard to the 3rd PzKorps was just too tempting, and ditched my Odessa plan completely

[image]http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/9779/t4odessaops.png[/image]


I hit with both 9th Rifle Corps divisions the Romanian Armored Division, which happened to be covering the PzKorps flank

[image]http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/3980/t41strumdefeated.png[/image]


26th NKVD Regiment, rushes northwest – seems most of the athletism Soviet team at Berlin'36 were in that unit – as well as a Cavalry Division, to cut off the LOC of those two Panzer Divisions who had really startled me.

Factory Evacuation II

After moving a bunch of troops around on rails, I find myself with 84,000 railcap points, which I use to get out 13 out of the 16 armament points from Kharkov, as well as a couple of the Sukhoi-2 factories.

Fortifications

This turn I got 150 AP's because the Reserve Front became active, which are invested into bunkers, mines and dragonteeth. With that I have managed to fortify the part of the Donets basin I want to really to keep until Winter:

[image]http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/8066/t4donbasforts.png[/image]


and prepare as well part of the defenses for Moscow

[image]http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/972/t4moscowdefenses.png[/image]


I gave priority to the Donbas basically because the terrain up there around Moscow is much more favorable for the defense.

Overall thoughts

Looking back at what I wrote at the beginning of the turn AAR, I think I was overly pessimistic about what I was able to do with the Red Army. It turned out I could quite a few things! One important sidenote is that out of the 4 successful attacks I have done this turn, 3 were due to the 1:1 → 2:1 rule. Even largely outnumbering the defending Germans, their awesome quality makes Nelson sound his “Only numbers annihilate” to be a rant he vented off after drinking too much grog :-)




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 11:50:08 AM)

Yesterday night I posted the update but got an Internal Server Error. The post went through, but I see that the "summary" view one gets from the AAR subforum doesn't get updated.




Flaviusx -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 12:06:50 PM)

Don't bother moving the Su2 factories. They go away permanently at the end of the year, no upgrade path. (Just like the Mig 3 factories.)

I'm also skeptical about buying fortified regions this early. Command and control is more important imo.

Here's the thing about FRs: they may as well not even exist until you have a level 2 that you want to get to a level 3. You can always wait until your fortified line develops to that point and then drop them.

Here's a little tip: the first one you should buy is to cover the back door of Leningrad at Osinovets. And even that one can wait some.

Also. Don't run away to the Svir. Very bad idea imo. Reinforce 7. Army with brigades and stall the Finns as long as possible. You've got a narrow front up there which can be held with a minimum of forces compared to the Svir. You can slow the Finns down to a crawl and buy time.

I like your counterattacks. My only problem is that I think you should do more of them! But that's the way I roll. You could be pounding at 4. PG near Pskov. 27. Army is perfect for this since it starts the game with Berzarin, a reasonably good leader.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 1:15:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Don't bother moving the Su2 factories. They go away permanently at the end of the year, no upgrade path. (Just like the Mig 3 factories.)


Argh, thank you for the advice on MiG-3, I won't be making that mistake again.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I'm also skeptical about buying fortified regions this early. Command and control is more important imo.

Here's the thing about FRs: they may as well not even exist until you have a level 2 that you want to get to a level 3. You can always wait until your fortified line develops to that point and then drop them.

Here's a little tip: the first one you should buy is to cover the back door of Leningrad at Osinovets. And even that one can wait some.


That was actually the first one I built :) But, yes, I'm not sure I'm investing so heavily on FR's is a good idea either, but I'm worried about finding I haven't anywhere I can withdraw and hold the German onslaught.

quote:

ORIGINAL: flaviusx
Also. Don't run away to the Svir. Very bad idea imo. Reinforce 7. Army with brigades and stall the Finns as long as possible. You've got a narrow front up there which can be held with a minimum of forces compared to the Svir. You can slow the Finns down to a crawl and buy time.


I decided to run for the Svir at the 11th hour. I just had 2 divisions and a NKVD regiment to hold along the Janisjarvi shores... perhaps enough to hold him there 1 turn. You're right it's a very weak move.

quote:

ORIGINAL: flaviusx
I like your counterattacks. My only problem is that I think you should do more of them! But that's the way I roll. You could be pounding at 4. PG near Pskov. 27. Army is perfect for this since it starts the game with Berzarin, a reasonably good leader.


Yes, one thing I look forward to is to prop up my attacks. I'm being perhaps too cautious in the north.

Thank you for the comments, Flavio. I will introduce them into next turns planning loop.




ComradeP -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 1:48:56 PM)

Flavio: where would he get the 12 CV from to attack the exposed Panzer division whilst still making sure the units used in the attack could get out of dodge? Attacking and hoping for a significant CV increase isn't the way to go.

Bletchley Geek: The lack of units along the northern bank of the Luga might become a problem.

By my calculations, if either of the 2 cavalry divisions west of Kirovograd had 22 MP's, you should've been able to isolate the spearhead from the north: 5 MP's for either unit to move to the hex west of Shpola, 9 for the move into the clear hex southwest of it, 1 for crossing the river and 4+3+3+1 for the ZOC to ZOC move into another clear hex=21.

By the way: you can stop the Finns east of Janisjarvi, but you'd need about 9 quality Rifle divisions, so that's not really an option.




Klydon -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 2:40:40 PM)

Nice job for the most part. I am sure Q-Ball is going to be scratching his head wondering what he got himself into at this point with his forces getting cut off repeatedly and the counter attacks. I am typically fairly careful with my motorized divisions because they are easy to bump. It appears the one you bumped did not have any SU's attached to it.

One question on the fort units. While they are required to build level 3 fortifications, is the rule that forts won't go beyond level 2 until enemy forces are within a certain distance (10 hexes? I think) still in effect? If that is the case, then I really question the wisdom of building several forts well away from the front.

The other observation is that you could have delayed their building a couple of turns from the standpoint that you don't need them until local forces have dug in to level 2 and are ready to proceed to level 3. (IE, you plop one down when level 2 forts are up, not when you first move troops in to start digging).




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 2:47:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
Bletchley Geek: The lack of units along the northern bank of the Luga might become a problem.


I'm pretty aware and worried about that. I'm going to reinforce significantly Leningrat next turn, after I get a better picture of Q-Ball's plan.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
By my calculations, if either of the 2 cavalry divisions west of Kirovograd had 22 MP's, you should've been able to isolate the spearhead from the north: 5 MP's for either unit to move to the hex west of Shpola, 9 for the move into the clear hex southwest of it, 1 for crossing the river and 4+3+3+1 for the ZOC to ZOC move into another clear hex=21.


Hehehe, this time I checked every unit. Highest MP count was 20. Perhaps I could have laid a "ring" of Rifle Divisions around the Germans but that would have prevented me from having some depth. Next turn I will make sure that the Cavalry HQ's have the leaders with best Initiative and Admin scores.

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
By the way: you can stop the Finns east of Janisjarvi, but you'd need about 9 quality Rifle divisions, so that's not really an option.


Indeed holding is out of the question, Comrade. Delaying them a bit further without exposing to lose more divisions up there was certainly possible.

Regarding the CV increases, since I've been investing heavily on FR's I don't really have the aces in the key positions (yet). And yes it's gambling. Actually, any Soviet attack before winter of 1941, no matter the odds, the leaders and SU's are gambling (unless you get those die hard PanzerGrenadiers surrounded).

Flavio is right that I shouldn't abandon an offensive - if perhaps reckless - stance and attitude unless I can't really afford it. The Red Army is not Chuck Norris, just staring at the Germans with steely eyes isn't going to achieve anything. Regarding the decision to be passive around Pskov: the decision about it being affordable has been more a matter of "gut feeling" or applying a heuristic, than the result of systematic analysis of the position.

EDIT: re-redacted the last part.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 3:16:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Nice job for the most part. I am sure Q-Ball is going to be scratching his head wondering what he got himself into at this point with his forces getting cut off repeatedly and the counter attacks. I am typically fairly careful with my motorized divisions because they are easy to bump. It appears the one you bumped did not have any SU's attached to it.

One question on the fort units. While they are required to build level 3 fortifications, is the rule that forts won't go beyond level 2 until enemy forces are within a certain distance (10 hexes? I think) still in effect? If that is the case, then I really question the wisdom of building several forts well away from the front.

The other observation is that you could have delayed their building a couple of turns from the standpoint that you don't need them until local forces have dug in to level 2 and are ready to proceed to level 3. (IE, you plop one down when level 2 forts are up, not when you first move troops in to start digging).



Thank you for reading :) From Q-Ball AAR title - which I can see - I'm under the impression that he's trying a strategy based on riding hard and fast, in the spirit of Murat handling the cavalry on the 1805 campaign in the Danube or Roosevelt charging Spanish positions at El Caney. My own thinking as the Axis, while not nearly as developed as mine own about how playing the Soviets, is way more cautious. However, there are quite a few lessons to learn from playing the Axis as Q-Ball does in this game. I perceive it as being very "napoleonic" - all maneuver and avoiding decisive engagements in places not of his own choosing. However, for that to work perfectly, one needs to find really lucky generals and fairly meek opponents :)

Yes you're right about them not reaching level 3, but they will stop - or so I understand - at 98% improvement towards Level 3. When the enemy gets within the radius, my troops will just to make a little push to get to level 3. While translating the Combat chapter into Spanish, I realized that fort levels in WitE have two components: actual level, that modifies combat values and progress level, which doesn't but it's important to take into account.




sveint -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 6:50:18 PM)

Very nice AAR - must take a long time to write?

I remember playing Stalingrad, but the AI was rather bad.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 8:24:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sveint
Very nice AAR - must take a long time to write?


Yes it does, especially since English isn't my first language.

quote:

ORIGINAL: sveint
I remember playing Stalingrad, but the AI was rather bad.


With patch 1.02 I got quite a good game in the smaller scenarios. I was never really convinced by the Sir Robin thing it does on Operation Uranus :-)




CarnageINC -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/17/2011 8:58:30 PM)

nice job on cutting into Q's panzer drives you don't see many Soviets making counter attacks [;)]




sillyflower -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/18/2011 9:23:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

If I had the rail cap, I'd rail U2VS forward into cities that will be captured...



That's what I do - just 1 from each location of course. Trying to save them is criminal negligence IMHO.




Peltonx -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/18/2011 1:23:34 PM)

quote:

Regarding the performance of Southwestern Front... I'd love to see critical comments on that. I am not sure of having managed the situation perfectly. Turn 1 opening was a crushing catastrophe, and Turn 2 Vinnitsa breakthrough just put the "cherry" on top of a very sour cake. Disasters can't really be "managed", it's more about "damage control" than "management".


I thk best thing that can be done is pull back the first 4 turns, your just going to have troops lost to pockets. Don't start fighting hard until your on other side of river.

Pelton




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/18/2011 7:40:10 PM)

Turn 5 – 17 July 1941

Looking at the turn statistics, this one has been the best Axis turn to date. Out of the 133 battles that have been fought, Q-Ball has obtained 17 Routs, 85 Retreats, 21 Surrenders and just 10 Helds (that's a 92,5% success ratio). This hasn't been a cakewalk for the Axis, those victories have costed over 30,000 casualties, three times as much as the average casualties per turn for the Axis since turn 1. For the Soviets, it's been a complete and unmitigated disaster. The worst case scenario has become true in Leningrad, strong bridgeheads have been established over the Dnepr, and if I am not careful, the huge operational victory in the Ukraine can become a substantial strategic victory.

Operational Situation Report

In the far north, the Finns are causing as much trouble as they can

[image]http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/9343/t5karelianisthmus.png[/image]


ensuring the destruction of 168th and 142nd Rifle Divisions. Next to the Baltic the 123rd Rifle Division is also in a dire situation. This doesn't look very good, and the NKVD regiment disbanding rules are making their existence felt.

As I said, the worst case scenario for Leningrad has become true

[image]http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/2792/t5leningrad.png[/image]


now I'm really seeing how important was the mistake of not cutting off 4. PzGruppe back in turn 2. Q-Ball maneuver is a text-book example of how to handle a hedgehog in difficult terrain. Nonetheless, the bulk of Northwestern Front is positioned so it can strike hard on 4. PzGruppe flanks. This isn't over just yet.

In the center the situation hasn't become so volatile as in the North, but it just doesn't too good. The land bridge has seen very heavy combat, which the 20th Army has been able to endure the storm and still keeps a fair amount of combat power

[image]http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/3821/t5upperdnepr.png[/image]


To the south, Q-Ball has established two strong bridgeheads, with the help of 3. PzGruppe and 9. Armee infantry. The landsers have basically laid a carpet for the motorized units to roll over the Dnepr. Attacking these bridgheads is out of the question, more so, when 4. and 2. Armees are massing just east of Zhlobin.

The battle for the Western Ukraine is basically over. There has been heavy fighting along the Zhitomir – Kiev axis, which has resulted in four divisions being encircled southeast Zhitomir. Q-Ball has really made the most of the limited MP's of his motorized units there

[image]http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/9336/t5zhitomirkiev.png[/image]


I see that Q-Ball has changed his tactics, establishing ZOC buffers to keep my units off his spearheads, and corner me between the swamps and the river. Further south the Panzers have gone on a vandalic spree that makes my heart burn with anger

[image]http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/1383/t5cherkassynikolaev.png[/image]


My dispositions in the area have been brushed away, being completely ineffective at checking Q-Ball advance. Probably one of his PzKorps was built up and raced to the Dnepr, overruning 26th Army positions entirely and defeating the advance guard of the 18th Army. Note how the motorized divisions fell back and established a hedgehog. In the Odessa region things haven't gone much better the two 9th Rifle Corps divisions are probably lost, and the city itself lies undefended.

Industry Evacuation

This turn I get 139,833 railcap points. Priority goes to evacuate Leningrad industry, 7 Armament factories, 6 vehicle factories and the 7 T-50 factories (which eventually upgrade to T-34 M1942), for a total of 83,040 railcap points.

Operations: Karelian Isthmus & Leningrad

The situation of Leningrad is desperate, the enemy is at the gates and in force. Carefully inspecting the situation I see that the only point where it is possible to menace 4. PzGruppe LOC is the city of Plyussa, where Q-Ball has 8 PzDiv. A strike force under N. Vatutin is assembled, and the German position is prepped with massed VVS air assaults and two sacrificial hasty attacks launched by the 185th Motorized Division and the 98th Rifle Division, which lose over 50% of their strength in the proceedings. The final attack is launched by 4 Rifle Divisions:

[image]http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3299/t5plyussabattle.png[/image]


The 8 Panzer reels back from the attack losing half its tanks and the LVI PzKorps HQ is displaced. HURRAH!

[image]http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/4784/t5leningradops.png[/image]


I also bring 9 Rifle Divisions from the STAVKA reserves around Moscow to reinforce the defenders of the Vladimir Ilych's namesake city.

Operations: The Dnepr Battle

I consider the river line defense to be pointless now that Q-Ball is on the other side in force, actually the forces he has on the eastern bank are nearly as powerful as mine. I decide to pull back towards the course of the Pronya river

[image]http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/7057/t5dneprbattle.png[/image]


while holding fast on the land bridge. And what does mean to “hold fast”?

[image]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/7124/t5landbridgebattles.png[/image]


A detachment of two 24th Army divisions attacks the 19th PzDiv again

[image]http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/4769/t519pzdefeated.png[/image]


one third of his panzers go down this time. The 20th Army attacks again, this time the infamous 7th PzDiv:

[image]http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/460/t57pzdefeated.png[/image]


that loses nearly half his AFVs. The road to Moscow is a long one and AGC armor might get there very ragged.

Operations: Western Ukraine evacuation

The battle for the Western Ukraine is over, here and now. Southwestern and Southern Fronts positions were completely unhinged. I retreat east over the Dnepr – I'm not really planning to hold that line – and towards Dnepropetrovsk

[image]http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/2287/t5ukraine.png[/image]


I admit defeat and the only thing I can do is to congratulate Q-Ball on a well deserved victory.

Factory Evacuation (Part 2)

35,964 railcap points are left after shuttling troops, and these are invested in moving out 2 Armaments factories and 3 Vehicles factories out of Kharkov.




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