RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (Full Version)

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BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/18/2011 7:49:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC
nice job on cutting into Q's panzer drives you don't see many Soviets making counter attacks


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

quote:

Regarding the performance of Southwestern Front... I'd love to see critical comments on that. I am not sure of having managed the situation perfectly. Turn 1 opening was a crushing catastrophe, and Turn 2 Vinnitsa breakthrough just put the "cherry" on top of a very sour cake. Disasters can't really be "managed", it's more about "damage control" than "management".


I thk best thing that can be done is pull back the first 4 turns, your just going to have troops lost to pockets. Don't start fighting hard until your on other side of river.


Hi Pelton (and Carnage),

as Carnage says, not many Soviets "fight hard" for the Western Ukraine. In my opinion, it looks like the "best" option because one gets the general impression of being vastly inferior to the attacking AGS forces, especially if the Axis plays the Turn 1 Megapocket card.

I wasn't really wanting to "fight hard". Q-Ball advances were not allowing me to retreat in an orderly manner, and also exposed his forces to attrition. So being offensive - mostly by counter maneuvering - was the only option if one wanted to put up a decent defense. And by decent I mean that I'm controlling the tempo of advance of the Axis. That allows the Soviet to establish a reserve and start preparing with some time his main line of resistance (mine will Moscow - Orel - Kursk - Kharkov - Stalino).

A Spanish general from the 16th century put it better than me, answering to the question of why he hadn't pursued a totally defeated French army in Southern Italy:

A enemigo que huye, puente de plata.

To the enemy that flees, present him a silver bridge.

Q-Ball wasn't allowing me to walk Southwestern Front across the Dnepr over a silver bridge, he wanted to annihilate entirely my forces. So I felt cornered and had to answer in kind :)



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 12:18:04 AM)

Turn 6 – 24 July 1941

A new turn, with the usual mix of catastrophe and some slight glimmers of hope. The last two turns have been especially tough on the Red Army, which has suffered over 600,000 casualties, 400,000 of them POWs from the reduced pockets. Operationally I'm being bested time and again by Q-Ball, he's really now “on the ball” with respect to flank security and other stuff I'll be commenting next.

I'm carefully tracking both sides losses and I'm noticing that German AFV strength is already down to two thirds of what it was at the start of Barbarossa, with the permanent loss of about 1,300 AFVs. Almost 400 of these correspond with the bad jokes that are the Panzer I and Panzer II. The other 900 are fairly uniformly spread about the more useful PzIII, Pz38(t) and Pz IV models. Comparing with previous GC's I've played as the Soviet, I see that Q-Ball has lost slightly over 200 AFVs than the average (small sample size and all that, of course). I guess this is due to the counterattacks I've launched, which have exacted a toll on the invaders.

Overall this turn Q-Ball has engaged into 106 combats with a success ratio of 83%. This is Q-Ball lowest so far (highest was last turn with 96%). Veterans from World At War might remind that VP count for scenarios depended as well on comparing both sides success ratios. Indeed, it's a good “hint” about how well one is performing. As the Soviet, the effect of the 1:1 → 2:1 rule, which somewhats precludes rational estimation of final combat odds, and being limited to do a few “rational” attacks each turn, makes the statistic for the Soviet much less significant.

By the way, I'm posting the spreadsheet I use to keep track of several statistics I perceive as informative here:



for those interested. In any case, the more people who look at the data, the more likely someone will spot something odd going on. And if other people keeping AARs do this we might be all contributing to making WitE better by helping the devs to spot weird stuff.

Operational Situation: The Far North and Leningrad


As I expected, the Finns do not miss the opportunity to bag another Rifle Division. In the isthmus things are under control, although it was a close call. The 43rd Rifle Division managed to contain two Finnish infantry divisions bent on isolating the 123rd Rifle Division which was covering the coast just south of Vyborg

[image]http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/2536/t6north.png[/image]


The bold offensive led by Vatutin has managed to buy some direly needed time for Leningrad, Q-Ball was forced to move in the infantry in strength, and 4. PzGruppe had to adopt a tighter defensive formation

[image]http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/7171/t6leningrad.png[/image]


which gives me some time to setup more solid defenses around Leningrad. However, the cost paid by the brave Northwestern Front units, over 40,000 casualties along their commander, N. Vatutin

[image]http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/926/vatutinfotobn3.jpg[/image]


the sight of his burly figure poring over operational maps will be missed by fellow Generals and staff officers :(

Operational Situation: The Upper Dnepr

Heavy fighting in the north, and heavy fighting along the Dnepr as well. On the land bridge, 3. PzGruppe has taken it easy, this turn again. 20th Army attacks have put some hurt on the PzGruppe leading PzKorps, but I think Q-Ball is looking forward to exploit my offensive stance on Soviet matters and lure me into a trap

[image]http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/5384/t6upperdnepr.png[/image]


more so, when I look at what he's been doing northeast and southeast of Mogilev. This looks like the first step in a double scissors-like maneuver to destroy the bulk of Western Front forces. I am not going to comply: I think I've won some very valuable time already, and there's no need to fight any harder for my current positions. It's also obvious that the overall situation is beyond repair. Time to pack and fall back towards Smolensk.

Operational Situation: The Ukraine

Here Q-Ball is putting a hell of a show. Getting to the Dnepr allows him to get his center and southern efforts to support each other. And what's east of the Dnepr? A vast plain where I can only play a very nasty game of chicken.
Kiev has fallen to 2. PzGruppe forces in the Ukraine, which have cleared the city and the western bank with very light losses

[image]http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/2639/t6kiev.png[/image]


It's obvious that 2. PzGruppe is aiming at rejoining his kamerads further north, while pushing towards the general direction of Orel and Kursk. Not good. But, of course, it gets worse. Downstream Q-Ball has finally established a strong bridgehead around Cherkassy

[image]http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/787/t6cherkassy.png[/image]


well, not really strong, but it's telling that he has the two divisions pointing towards Poltava and Kharkov. I think he's expecting me to retreat eastwards, and keep pursuing. The 18th Army, which was formed up wasn't prepared enough to hinder in any meaningful way German operations. He's also being more prudent: I had left the 16th Army around Poltava to strike at his right flank if he decided to ride rough northwards.

Last turn I had a bad feeling about forming up Southern Front in a hedgehog while retreating it east. I couldn't retreat east as much as I wanted because I would lose cohesion... those few hexes that Q-Ball converted west of Kirovograd have been perhaps the cheapest thing he's done for the most benefit so far

[image]http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/7184/t6kirovograd.png[/image]


9th and 29th Army have been trapped by combining combat and maneuver. Q-Ball has herded my hedgehog into destruction and has adopted himself a hedgehog to prevent me causing too much trouble. The Southern Front has ceased to be an operative combat force, and the door to the Crimea and the Donbass lies wide open

[image]http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7038/t6nikolaev.png[/image]


Factory Evacuation

This turn I get 132,085 railcap points. How to best use this? Looking at the figures I see I've lost already 10% of the Soviet Union Heavy Industry, and 6% of Armaments. This is substantial damage, especially regarding Heavy Industry. Looking at the map, I think I need to evacuate the Heavy Industry out of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye

[image]http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/8104/t6lowerdneprevac.png[/image]


I don't think I can accumulate enough CV to push back the PzDiv that has ZOC on Krivoi Rog, so I decide to evacuate 5 HI points from Dnepropetrovsk and 4 ARM for (74,000 railcap points total) and reserve the rest for troop movements (I need to do a lot of them this turn as well). Any leftovers will be used to evacuate HI from Zaporozhye.

Operations: General Discussion

I'm really trying to plan ahead and anticipate where are going to be the major battles, not next turn, but from Turn 15. I've been showing you some screenshots already, where you could see I was concentrating the newly formed divisions and the reinforcements from the Far East around three major hubs: Moscow, Kharkov and Stalino.

So far, I've been very reluctant to push everything to the front as fast as possible. I've never been too satisfied by that approach. One thing is that the Axis advances force you to do so, and another different thing is to charge like a bull into a red cape, paying little attention to the stiletto the Axis player – actually, the many stilettos – has ready to stick into your back. Now it's time to put up a coherent plan together.

Bold red lines show the lines I'm looking forward to defend in force, no matter what the losses that might entail

[image]http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3866/t6defenseplan.png[/image]


when possible I will try to make best use of river lines, though east of Orel and Kursk I don't think I'll able to hold to anything solid at all. I also expect that Q-Ball's efforts will be directed either North or South. I won't be building any FR's west of the Moscow – Orel – Kursk – Kharkov – Stalino line, I think that will be a waste of AP's, since there will be very little time to fortify anything west of the line.

I need to retreat not too much, not too little. Timing is of the essence. If Q-Ball overcomes my resistance on the outer perimeter well before turn 10 in all of the points I've marked on the map – and that's very possible – I'll be knee deep into trouble. And of course, counterattack, as much as possible focusing on motorized units.

What about the north? Well, I will devote as many troops – securing the Svir line as wel - and try to fight as long as possible for Leningrad, but well, I think my turn 2 failure has really doomed my possibilities of avoiding a link-up between the Finns and the German Army.

Operations

Several brigades and divisions are rushed to the Svir line

[image]http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/3575/t6svirlinereinforced.png[/image]


I think I will have plenty of time to defend this line, the Finns have trouble negotiating their way southeast. As soon as I start to get brigades, I will replace the divisions I have had to bring up here. I'm not getting very creative for Leningrad

[image]http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/8428/t6leningradcarpet.png[/image]


and I lay, literally, a red carpet for Q-Ball to walk into the city. The 27th Army – the bit of yellow to the northwest – is trying to retreat across Northern Front line. Its destination is the Volkhov river. On the northern shore of Lake Ilmen, 22nd Army deploys in a tight defensive formation protecting Novgorod.

I've spent good AP's to shakedown the shattered command structure of the Northwestern Front. I hope it pays, and the 11th Army deployed on the southern shore of Lake Ilmen, is able to put up some fight if Q-Ball decides to march over Staraya Russa

[image]http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/5043/t6starayarussa.png[/image]


The swamps to the south are covered by the puny 8th Army.

Western Front armies try to pull themselves out of the deathgrip of Q-Ball panzers. I'm covering Smolensk with three armies

[image]http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/7002/t6vitebskmogilev.png[/image]


further south I'm not retreating that much, just enough to recover a bit of balance, and acquire a position which might make difficult a pincer movement just in front of Smolensk

[image]http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/3571/t6mogilevgomel.png[/image]


The idea is to retreat in an orderly fashion, not to hold the line.

Half the Southwestern Front goes hedgehog, the other half hugs Cherkassy bridgehead

[image]http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/6514/t6swfrontretreat.png[/image]


I don't think Q-Ball will be able to do much against the hedgehog here, too little MP's if contest the crossing and has to fight the hedgehog. I'm not ruling out that he hurts the Red Army slightly though. Will analyze Q-Ball moves here with care.
Having evacuated Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, there is little of value in the Dnepr bend

[image]http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/1749/t6dneprbend.png[/image]


the only thing really valuable here is buying time so Q-Ball doesn't get an opportunity to turn Southwestern Front flank and break out, just yet, into the Donets basin.

I think I haven't yet shown my defenses on the Perekop isthmus

[image]http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/9292/t6perekopisthmus.png[/image]


the forts reached level 2, and are quite advanced towards level 3. I think that Q-Ball will oblige and secure AGS right flank.



ComradeP -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 10:15:44 AM)

Pity you got such poor MP rolls on the cavalry east of the pocket Krivoi Rog pocket, I really thought you could reestablish supply.



janh -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 10:23:46 AM)

Very interesting AAR, love the detailed discussions and the effort you put into preparing your maps!  Q-Ball seems to give you some real headaches, but surely have returned the favor a number of times now.  What do you think are the prime targets for his summer offensive now, where to you expect him to make a halt?
Honestly I dislike your hedgehog east of Kiev this turn, this time it just looks "artificial".  I wish there would be some mechanism in the engine that would disfavor this a bit, like for example getting a slight moral bonus for units that have at least two neighboring ones, or a penalty for disconnected units.  Even if it was small.

There is one question I have for a while, but never saw answered:  The losses of your opponent, and the force strengths and composition you can see in the summary screen, are they distorted by FOW, like in WiTP/AE?  Or accurate?  With accurate loss figures, and fixed German production, you can easily calculate the German device strengths, I suppose -- sort of Stalin with weekly reports from the German Heeres-department and minster of economy. 





BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 11:04:37 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Pity you got such poor MP rolls on the cavalry east of the pocket Krivoi Rog pocket, I really thought you could reestablish supply.


Me too :( I had spent the AP's on 16th Army commander, since I was expecting Q-Ball to burst towards Poltava. But those cavalry divisions didn't get very good rolls either.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 11:46:40 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Very interesting AAR, love the detailed discussions and the effort you put into preparing your maps! 


Thank you :) I'm trying to offer a "transparent" AAR, so people can really see, within some limitations, how the Russian side can be played. And how much thinking one might devote to frustrate German Summer offensive.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janhy
Q-Ball seems to give you some real headaches, but surely have returned the favor a number of times now.  What do you think are the prime targets for his summer offensive now, where to you expect him to make a halt?


Good question. One of the reasons for not engaging into global long-term planning was that I hadn't a clue about Q-Ball operational plan. I mean, I know what goals he's pursuing, that's obvious to anyone, but not about the how.

He's obviously trying to capture Leningrad early. He's playing very aggresively up there, and I think the 22nd Army counteroffensive surprised him and made evident that Leningrad won't be an easy picking. I mean, not "too easy". My deployment there is trying to cover the three possible plans to get Leningrad, the priority being how likely I think these are. One, the direct approach. AGN packs enough punch to just grind through and get to Pushkin. Hence I concentrated there the three Tank Divisions - over 80% strength - in reserve. That should cause considerable attrition. Two, the short left flank hook, through Novgorod and then advancing northeast along the Volkhov. Hence I massed the 22nd Army on the northern shore of the Volkhov. Three, the long left flank hook, along Lake Ilmen southern shore. This one is the least likely - the terrain is not anything like south in the Ukraine, and in my games where I've seen it and on some AARs it looks to me like a really poor option.

After he captures Leningrad - or not, the fat lady hasn't sung his line here yet - I'm pretty sure he'll be adopting a mostly passive stance, massing the Finns between the lakes Ladoga and Ilmen, and using 18. Armee and 4. PzGruppe to launch a Typhoon operation on Moscow. So the more I delay Leningrad, the safer will be the heart of the Soviet Union.

In the center he's feeling the absence of half of 2. PzGruppe. This is not surprising for me or Q-Ball. It's evident on the experiences one can readily find on AARs. Also the substantial forces I could deploy on the land bridge have just reinforced this. This is going to change soon. The 2. PzGruppe is poised to regroup and use it, most probably along the Bryansk - Tula axis. A quite historical course of action, but the fact is that it made sense in 1941 and also in WitE. I expect him to start alternating diverging and converging strikes to chew as much of the Western - and soon to be activated - Bryansk Fronts.

In the south I think it's clear he's going to push very hard towards Kharkov, both north and south of Poltava. I don't know if he'll be sticking his neck too much to the east towards Stalino. I really think than giving 1. PzGruppe diverging goals is a really poor move on behalf the Axis. Concentrating on Kharkov, and then wheeling southeast towards Stalino, makes more sense (it also would secure the right flank of the 2. PzGruppe maneuver).

Regarding his stop line: I don't think he's decided on that yet. That will depend on how his perception of his motorized units attrition and of my weakness. But in my experience, Germans stopping before mud is a terrible mistake. Even with the reduced forts in mud etc. German Infantry, pioneers are more than able to setup level 2 forts in the turns from 18 to 24. That's the bare minimum to keep things under control during December and January in the sectors he deems as critical. When I say under control I mean that his forces might get battered but I will pay a heavy toll. Perhaps heavy enough, to make anti-economic an offensive. On those not so critical sectors, Q-Ball can just give ground one or two hexes at a time. The Red Army isn't really mobile, and less so during Blizzard.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Honestly I dislike your hedgehog east of Kiev this turn, this time it just looks "artificial".  I wish there would be some mechanism in the engine that would disfavor this a bit, like for example getting a slight moral bonus for units that have at least two neighboring ones, or a penalty for disconnected units.  Even if it was small.


I don't like it either, sincerely. The reason for that is to avoid Axis motorized divisions doing stuff like converting hexes behind my line and the pulling back to their line. He did almost that east of Kirovograd and was one of the main reasons for me to lose 9th Army. Then the units on the river would be isolated and I wouldn't be able to do anything to avoid that. Given how poor is the morale, and MP's so limited, this is a major reason for concern when one gets in the open.

I mean, German mobility allows to both have the cake and not eating it: he cuts off my troops, but he risks naught in the process.

Your suggestion has merit, but I dislike its ramifications. If we had reaction and interception rules I wouldn't do anything like a hedgehog. I would be setting up a reserve in the back with such orders, cavalry mostly, and expect them to engage as soon as enemy units get within range. Think of TOAW local reserves but focused on specific hexes. Since I have not, I have to preempt such moves by positioning.

Having reaction and interception would be a very nice addition to WitE, I think.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
There is one question I have for a while, but never saw answered:  The losses of your opponent, and the force strengths and composition you can see in the summary screen, are they distorted by FOW, like in WiTP/AE?  Or accurate?  With accurate loss figures, and fixed German production, you can easily calculate the German device strengths, I suppose -- sort of Stalin with weekly reports from the German Heeres-department and minster of economy. 


They're accurate and you're completely right. The things you mention, and the fact that you have as well accurate OOB figures, make it quite easy to estimate reasonably within sense Once one haves enough games with both sides under his belt - in my case, two hotseat GC'41 campaigns and now one slowly progressing German GC'41 against my brother - you can indeed do that. That also works from the Axis POV, you can also accurately estimate Soviet capabilities, since you can check how many factories are in cities. It's just more involved.

As with the reaction and interception rules, I would also like to see FOW on the economic and logistic aspects of the game. I concur too much info is being given to the opponent.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 12:00:26 PM)

If one wants to get a peek of what I mean about interception and reaction rules I'm thinking of the mechanisms in

BoardgameGeek entry for GMT Typhoon!

Official GMT game site

I haven't the ruleset at hand now, but from what I recall they simply stated that motorized and cavalry units had an special "reaction" phase, where the non-phasing player could move up to three hexes in any direction and only engage in overrun combat.

In WitE terms, something could work like putting a "commitment range" to land units ranging from say 0 - no commitment - to 3 or 4 hexes - that's 70 miles. Enemy units entering this zones would be engaged into a hasty attack and left in ZOC. I'd give different die roll difficulties depending on the unit type - motorized & cavalry vs. foot infantry - and everything mediated by morale, and leader ratings, of course.

It could be "gamed", but we would have a realistic replacement for hedgehogs.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 12:16:39 PM)

One thought more about hedgehogs: preempting by positioning is suboptimal. With the appropiate forces and knowledge of retreat rules, hedgehogs can be herded into destruction. Q-Ball just did that to 9th Army [:(]



janh -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 12:33:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
...
As with the reaction and interception rules, I would also like to see FOW on the economic and logistic aspects of the game. I concur too much info is being given to the opponent.


Thumbs up, I would support both on a wishlist. I especially like your suggestion of having some kind of reaction rules. That would be a very neat refinement of the game mechanics. They could mitigate the gap in the I-go-U-go system due to the comparably long turn length giving large movement radii without opponent interference, and resolve discussions like the Lvov pocket, or replaying the perfectly optimized 1st German turn by the book every time.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/21/2011 12:39:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
...
As with the reaction and interception rules, I would also like to see FOW on the economic and logistic aspects of the game. I concur too much info is being given to the opponent.


Thumbs up, I would support both on a wishlist. I especially like your suggestion of having some kind of reaction rules. That would be a very neat refinement of the game mechanics. They could mitigate the gap in the I-go-U-go system due to the comparably long turn length giving large movement radii without opponent interference, and resolve discussions like the Lvov pocket, or replaying the perfectly optimized 1st German turn by the book every time.


My thoughts precisely :) This could allow the Soviets to have a "Turn 0" with all units frozen and only decide on "contingency plans". Or barring that, the scenario designer could adjust them with the editor, along historical lines.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/22/2011 8:57:00 AM)

Turn 7 – 31 July 1941

Next turn is in my Inbox, and yet again when I open and give it a look I yell: OUCH!

Well, the turn hasn't been THAT bad either. For the exception of the Western Front, where Q-Ball has torn a hole right in the middle of my forces. I should have to retreat further east... and Q-Ball isn't the kind of guy who let's pass this kind of opportunities.

All in all, this has been an “average” turn for Q-Ball, he engaged into 111 battles and won 85%. Results distributions have been more or less the same during the past three turns. This turn the Axis lost 200 further AFV's. Right now the tanks so prominent in Soviet Union propaganda, are a rare sight amongst the ranks of the Red Army. I'm down to about 3300 AFV's.

Situation Report: Leningrad

Of the three options for Q-Ball I was envisioning and discussed with janh, Q-Ball went for the direct approach. He has made some headway but not that much

[image]http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/7544/t7leningrad.png[/image]


and most significant, no encirclement has been made. I've to put some significant effort into preventing any of those, and force Q-Ball to make deliberate attacks. I don't think I have commented on this: Q-Ball is mostly doing hasty attacks, and to great effect.

Situation Report: Staraya Russa

11th Army has done a good job holding 16th Army probe, but to the south Q-Ball has had some success and menaces to flank this force

[image]http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/4549/t7starayarussa.png[/image]


This theater is a bit of a sideshow, but can be a good attractor for Q-Ball forces. The last thing I want is that the mass of infastry east of Staraya Russa goes north.

Situation Report: Smolensk – Gomel

This has been the best turn for Q-Ball and my worst here. Q-Ball has pushed the Panzers to the max to chew a good piece of Western Front:

[image]http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/7351/t7smolenskgomel.png[/image]


3rd and 2nd PzGruppes have done exactly the kind of “scissors” move I was fearing and that I so miserably failed to preempt it. It's interesting that Q-Ball has all but ignored the forces I had covering Gomel. The only thing here missing is a “HA-HA!” laugh like the one from that Nelson character from The Simpsons.

The big encirclement to the south can be opened, I will do my best to put as much pain as possible on the Germans. They really need to badly delayed along the Smolensk – Moscow axis. Note also how the “ZOC game” can be played by both sides, just differently =) Those are the kind of “rough rides on my back” I hate so much and one is unable to preempt if not by deploying in “hedgehog” formation.

Situation Report: Kiev – Cherkassy and the Dnepr Bend

The motorized divisions I had seen in Kiev are still there, and wisely, Q-Ball decided to give the job of crossing the Dnepr to the infantry. The 26th Army hasn't been able to contain the German bridgehead, an a full PzKorps has broke out to the plains west of Poltava and Sumy

[image]http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6354/t7kievcherkassy.png[/image]


How can I hinder in any meaningful way Q-Ball advances? There are two sturdy German divisions guarding the base of the bulge... Argh. Things on the Dnepr bend have been quiet this turn

[image]http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/2797/t7dneprbend.png[/image]


which makes me enormously suspicious. Just one division encircled. This is strange.

Operations: General Discussion

I've made already quite a few mistakes in this campaign. More prominent are my failures at spotting opportunities for relieving pockets. But there was yet another, I think, bigger mistake. Which one? Being too passive with pocketed units. Even if relieved there's usuallyno possibility of extricating. That means that you have the guarantee they won't just surrender next turn and then you leave them there as sitting ducks. This is a mistake.

Units which cannot escape to the east not only are useful because they might block supply trucks path so overall supply of German spearheads is reduced. They also make the German to spend MP's forcing their surrender. But there's a third effect: they can raise fatigue levels and sap vital fuel and ammo from German units. How? Attacking, no matter how crazy are the odds.
But if they're going to become POWs after all... huh, wait one second. With 1.05 we saw the introduction of Hiwis in the game. So I'm “generating” potentially free recruits for the German Army! Not to mention the attrition one can cause on the Luftwaffe indirectly. And those disabled losses I'm losing as potentially recruits...

On the bright side I've noticed that my pain tolerance threshold is getting pretty high after 7 turns. Now I think I would be able to see the Third Reich flag waving over the Kremlin and I won't cry. I think :)

Industry Evacuation

Recent evacuation efforts have created a vacuum – for now – so Q-Ball can't reach next turn anything really vital. Available railcap this turn is 130,684 points. 90,000 of them are allotted to evacuating Armaments industries.

Operations

About time to have the homework done on the Svir river line

[image]http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/8388/t7svirline.png[/image]


I've brought here nearly all the brigades available in the RKKA order of battle – three are still in transit. Three Rifle Divisions are tied up here, but keeping them here training for a turn or so might not be as stupid as it sounds.

I want to show Q-Ball that I mean business in Leningrad. I consolidate further the position here, while attacking on the Totenkopf Waffen SS Division:

[image]http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/7812/t7totenkopfdefeated.png[/image]


Their losses were quite mild (that's 5% for each side). First line CV's should convince Q-Ball he needs to get the infantry into position first. My deployment is somewhat shallower between Lyuban and Novgorod.

[image]http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/413/t7leningradops.png[/image]


This is sort of deliberate. If Q-Ball wants to attack, that's the most convenient place for me. Berzarin's 27th Army finished its re-deployment and setup shop on the eastern bank of the Volkhov River. I want to give these guys some rest and become the operational reserve for this theater.

The Red Army is in full retreat from the Dnepr

[image]http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/990/t7dneprretreat.png[/image]


note that a single Cavalry Division volunteered to reestablish land communication with the big southern pocket here. All motorized units within reach received at least a couple hasty attacks. Note that I am still lingering onto Smolensk. Again, I'm testing my opponent: looking at the soft factors, I see 3. PzGruppe to be really low on fuel and supplies. I also contributed to the apparently raggedness of such a mighty unit, by how not, counterattacking 19Pz just west of Smolensk

[image]http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/1355/t719pzdefeated.png[/image]


19 is certainly an unlucky number in this game.

Let's take a general picture of the Dnepr bend and the Donets basin

[image]http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/8144/t7dneprbendops.png[/image]


I isolated “on the cheap” the PzDiv playing ZOC games around Krivoi Rog, and I'm really trying to extricate Southwestern Front from the Dnepr bank. I establish a line along the Psel rivers with 18th and 26th Army, and set up a quite temporary line just southeast of Sumy with 5th and 19th Army. I say “temporary” because was the best thing I could get from the initial position I got. The Dnepropetrovsk region is being defended by two relatively strong armies of Southern Front - 16th and 32nd – but their frontage is excessive and I think that Q-Ball will make me pay for it.

As you can see most of my strategic reserves/diggers are gone into frontline commands. I think I've commited 4/5 of the reserves I had. Now I cross my fingers that all the effort hinders Axis advance substantially.

This turn I engaged into 13 battles, of which I won exactly two. This came at the cost of 13,000 casualties. Pocketed – and just “unpocketed” - units do not seem to have as much fight into them as units in the right side of the front. I guess it's because the combination of low morale, fatigue and lack of supplies (ammo). Nonetheless, I will be pursuing this “fighting pockets” strategy. Even if the damage done on Axis units is minimal, it might be important in the long run (and Q-Ball gets a more realistic War In The East game in the process :P).

I'm also trying some stuff with the air model. I must admit I have yet to wrap around my head around doctrines, how to use them and why caring. This turn I've launched a grand total of 28 bombardments on German motorized units. I read somewhere that most of the damage done by air raids is inflicted on support squads...



glvaca -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/22/2011 9:33:22 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

quote:

Regarding the performance of Southwestern Front... I'd love to see critical comments on that. I am not sure of having managed the situation perfectly. Turn 1 opening was a crushing catastrophe, and Turn 2 Vinnitsa breakthrough just put the "cherry" on top of a very sour cake. Disasters can't really be "managed", it's more about "damage control" than "management".


I thk best thing that can be done is pull back the first 4 turns, your just going to have troops lost to pockets. Don't start fighting hard until your on other side of river.

Pelton


Agreed. Save as much as you can and fight behind the dnepr. If you fight all out before, you probably won't have enough to make a stand at the best place to do so: the dnepr. But, as always, only a personal opinion.

Fantastic AAR!



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/22/2011 10:54:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

quote:

Regarding the performance of Southwestern Front... I'd love to see critical comments on that. I am not sure of having managed the situation perfectly. Turn 1 opening was a crushing catastrophe, and Turn 2 Vinnitsa breakthrough just put the "cherry" on top of a very sour cake. Disasters can't really be "managed", it's more about "damage control" than "management".


I thk best thing that can be done is pull back the first 4 turns, your just going to have troops lost to pockets. Don't start fighting hard until your on other side of river.



Agreed. Save as much as you can and fight behind the dnepr. If you fight all out before, you probably won't have enough to make a stand at the best place to do so: the dnepr. But, as always, only a personal opinion.


The question is how to "save as much as you can" while not allowing the Axis to get over the Dnepr too soon. Axis maneuvering in the Western Ukraine are much less constrained than on the Land Bridge. Getting right a delaying action fought over a 1,000 km long front, facing enemy units which are more mobile and stronger than yours is perhaps one of the greatest challenges that poses WitE. Just running like a rabbit to the Dnepr accomplishes the "save as much as you can", but then the Axis gets the Western Ukraine for free. I don't like giving away any freebies, especially freebies which are SO huge.

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
Fantastic AAR!


Thank you :)



glvaca -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/22/2011 2:13:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek



Agreed. Save as much as you can and fight behind the dnepr. If you fight all out before, you probably won't have enough to make a stand at the best place to do so: the dnepr. But, as always, only a personal opinion.


The question is how to "save as much as you can" while not allowing the Axis to get over the Dnepr too soon. Axis maneuvering in the Western Ukraine are much less constrained than on the Land Bridge. Getting right a delaying action fought over a 1,000 km long front, facing enemy units which are more mobile and stronger than yours is perhaps one of the greatest challenges that poses WitE. Just running like a rabbit to the Dnepr accomplishes the "save as much as you can", but then the Axis gets the Western Ukraine for free. I don't like giving away any freebies, especially freebies which are SO huge.




I understand the pro's and cons but we must be careful to avoid extreemes. I'm not advocating running away like a rabit. A reasonable checkerboard with expendable units is mandatory. Using the pre-existing fortifications as best as you can very useful.

My reasons for saving the better part of the Southern army is that they can be used to far better effect in the center and in Leningrad and on the Dnepr going down to Z- & D-town. Falling back each turn to a far enough distance that any German drive will never have enough MP's to effect breakthroughs and as such encirclements of value is much more efficient in delaying than you may think.

By keeping your army in fighting form and having your best divisions ready to counter attack when the Germans have run far ahead of their infantry and above all supply lines you will be in a much better position then sacrificing your best troops close to the border where the German has all the advantages of supply, air support, infantry close.

IT simply does not make any sense to fight at the point where you are at the most disadvantage and your opponent at the most advantage.
In my view, it also does not make sense to break pockets or put a few tank units out of supply when whatever you commit will be toast the next turn. Safe those units till the dnepr line and you will have your best formations for either the defence of that huge natural obstacle, or you can commit them in the center/North.

Even when "running" to the Dnepr in the South, you still have quite a few turns to evaquate industry and unless you have lost half your army in the first turns, these guys are quite capable of putting up a very good fight further inland well fortified and organized. this by itself ensures more time for evaquation and less likeliness of having to retreat farther. Obviously, it all depends on your opponent but for the reasons specified above I'm a strong believer in delaying on a budget and preparing to stand where you actually can with a good chance of not losing your army while doing so. An expert German will not rush it. He won't push his panzers forward each turn. He'll wait for the right moment, well fueled, infantry near, supply ok, and then strike deep and give you no chance to extract your troops.

There are obviously exceptions to this but as a rule to live by I think it's not bad. Just ask yourself the question when you are playing the German, what would you like to see the Russian do? Fight forward and lose the best part of his army, or fight at the Dnepr, well fortified and organized and with a good chance to fall back intact when the need arrises?

Oh, and I use RR cap to get troops out! This will be shocking for some no doubt [:D]






BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/22/2011 3:42:07 PM)

Some discussion, great! [:)]

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
I understand the pro's and cons but we must be careful to avoid extreemes. I'm not advocating running away like a rabit. A reasonable checkerboard with expendable units is mandatory. Using the pre-existing fortifications as best as you can very useful.


Indeed. I wasn't taking your comment as an extreme.

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
My reasons for saving the better part of the Southern army is that they can be used to far better effect in the center and in Leningrad and on the Dnepr going down to Z- & D-town. Falling back each turn to a far enough distance that any German drive will never have enough MP's to effect breakthroughs and as such encirclements of value is much more efficient in delaying than you may think.


That's the problem. Making an educated guess from the info you can ellicit from soft markers for enemy units it's not easy. So you might well retreat too little - as I did this turn on the Upper Dnepr - or too much.

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
By keeping your army in fighting form and having your best divisions ready to counter attack when the Germans have run far ahead of their infantry and above all supply lines you will be in a much better position then sacrificing your best troops close to the border where the German has all the advantages of supply, air support, infantry close.


Well, most of my best troops were destroyed on the Lvov - Tarnopol pocket. "Best" Soviet troops are those with Experience in the 40-50's, which are in desperately short supply. Those units do stand a chance. The rest... well, the rest aren't really very good. The new divisions get to their level quite quickly.

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
IT simply does not make any sense to fight at the point where you are at the most disadvantage and your opponent at the most advantage.


Well, it certainly delays him. The one racing against the clock is the Axis, not the Soviet Union.

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
In my view, it also does not make sense to break pockets or put a few tank units out of supply when whatever you commit will be toast the next turn. Safe those units till the dnepr line and you will have your best formations for either the defence of that huge natural obstacle, or you can commit them in the center/North.


This is a quite delicate balancing act, as well. You have to weigh the problems you may cause against the losses you're bound to suffer. Again, gaining time to put your defenses together is key. Just consider what the 22nd Army offensive achieved for Leningrad. It bought it just one turn, sure, but one turn which allowed me to take there 10 Rifle Divisions fully equipped and with average soviet experience (in their 30's). That might have saved the city.


quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
Even when "running" to the Dnepr in the South, you still have quite a few turns to evaquate industry and unless you have lost half your army in the first turns, these guys are quite capable of putting up a very good fight further inland well fortified and organized. this by itself ensures more time for evaquation and less likeliness of having to retreat farther.


Well, Southwestern Front actually lost something like half its strength in two catastrophic turns. So we're already on the worst case scenario. Indeed they can put a good fight, but they won't be stopping the Germans for longer than two weeks. I have been able to contain AGC on the Dnepr for 4 turns, but note that it was mostly because I cut off the spearheads in turn 2. And I've been consistently counterattacking motorized units, not closing myself in my fortifications.

One aphorism by Napoleon:

"He who remains idle behind the cover of fortification, will always be defeated"

Good old Napoleon isn't - wasn't - right all the time, but I think that this applies well for the case study we're discussing. This is doing like the French Army in 1940, to assume that nobody can attack across a major river because they couldn't!

quote:

ORIGINAL:glvaca
Obviously, it all depends on your opponent but for the reasons specified above I'm a strong believer in delaying on a budget and preparing to stand where you actually can with a good chance of not losing your army while doing so.


Well, I exposed on the turn 6 AAR my budget. However I don't think The Stand can be made on the Dnepr. That's just a good opportunity for delaying. The Stand can be successful if made at Leningrad, Moscow, Kharkov and Stalino and at the right time. If the battles there start too soon, those are going to be defeats. West of that it's unrealistic, I think. Things develop far too fast because the Germans are really fast!

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
An expert German will not rush it. He won't push his panzers forward each turn. He'll wait for the right moment, well fueled, infantry near, supply ok, and then strike deep and give you no chance to extract your troops.


An expert German will know when he has to rush things and when he shouldn't. Actually, rushing up is something which is perfectly feasible until August, depending on how hard has been the fight before. Then he usually needs to put the Panzers on rest & refit for a couple weeks. The so much glossed over "Logistic Stop" of Barbarossa is something that can happen, but nothing really like "the whole German Army taking a nap" for a couple weeks. A really good Axis commander will be alternating his motorized units resting and refit to keep the pressure at a constant level for the longest (and the same is true for a Soviet commander during 1941 winter or 1942 onwards). That has a good chance of breaking up the Red Army, no matter who is the Soviet player.

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
There are obviously exceptions to this but as a rule to live by I think it's not bad.


I mostly agree with what you say, but we're in disagreement assessing the circumstances, I think :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
Just ask yourself the question when you are playing the German, what would you like to see the Russian do? Fight forward and lose the best part of his army, or fight at the Dnepr, well fortified and organized and with a good chance to fall back intact when the need arrises?


Sincerely? There's nothing as beautiful as having my enemy confident and happy behind his side of the river, while I assemble the infantry to burst open the puny entrenchments they can make and I have plenty of time to plan my double envelopment maneuver to take out the most of the enemy in one single stroke :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
Oh, and I use RR cap to get troops out! This will be shocking for some no doubt [:D]


Now I am shocked [X(] Please, explain yourself [:-] [:D]



Remmes -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/22/2011 9:48:51 PM)

Lot's of considerations concerning the decision-making and side information included in this AAR. Very helpful to learning the dynamics of the game for three quarters-noobs like me. Good read as well. Thanks for sharing.



Wild -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/23/2011 3:42:35 AM)

First class AAR. I'm really enjoying it. Lots to think about.



Baelfiin -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/23/2011 3:13:34 PM)

Very enjoyable and informative... Thanks BG



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/24/2011 4:57:49 PM)

Turn 8 – 7 August 1941

This is mostly a contest of steel, but also of hearts & minds. Q-Ball has launched a psy-ops campaign with consequences yet unforeseen. I try to keep him updated

Just a quick heads up. I see that today will be a long day at work, so
I don't think I'll have time to go over the turn tonight. If I don't
get any surprises when I get home, I think you'll find my moves in
your inbox by Saturday 9-10AM (your time).

And he answers this


That will work.  
 
You might need more time, though, once you see that I have pocketed everything between Smolensk and Dnepropetrovsk in one giant uber-deathstar-pocket.


Almost impossible, I thought. Guys, it was hard to not check the turn until this morning.

This turn has seen 99 battles, the second lowest count since Barbarossa. Q-Ball has been successful in an 84% of them. Axis AFV losses have decreased notably – about 25% - that being mostly because Q-Ball has had 1. PzGruppe having some rest this turn, just east of Krivoi Rog.

Operational Situation Report

The battle for Leningrad rages as the 4. PzGruppe and the 18. Armee push forward all along the line

[image]http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/4083/t8leningrad.png[/image]


the battles here account for nearly half of Q-Ball losses this turn. Rather than pressing in the direction I was inviting him to, he's pressed around it. Might well be time for the 27th Army – on the Volkhov eastern bank - to relieve the 22nd Army – north and northeast of Novgorod.

South of the Ilmen, 16. Armee has made some headway around Staraya Russa, put the two armies I've got here (11th north, 8th south) are still keeping some modicum of cohesion

[image]http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/6148/t8southilmen.png[/image]


situation, that contrasts with the complete rout of 20th and 3rd Armies around Smolensk

[image]http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/9374/t8smolensk.png[/image]


both armies have been badly scattered, and their combat power is really low. To the south, German 4. Armee (?) supported by some motorized units, has broke through the positions of the 10th and 21st Western Front armies.

[image]http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/9964/t8bryansk.png[/image]


At least they put fight enough to avoid the Germans from breaking out all the way to Bryansk, where the city is being defended by the newly formed 49th Army.

The 2. PzGruppe southern group has made a heck of a sprint, ploughing through the hedgehog I had covering 19th Army right flank and advancing more than 12 hexes (120 miles!) into the plains northeast of Sumy.

[image]http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/6590/t8sumy.png[/image]


The 5th Army, covering the approaches to Sumy and 19th Army left flank put up some “spirited” fight (more spirited than the one put up by Western Front around Smolensk), but were unable to prevent the encirclement and destruction of 19th Army. Yet another painful defeat.

No major motorized operations on the Dnepr bend this turn,

[image]http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/1214/t8dneprbend.png[/image]


1. PzGruppe is being relieved by German infantry. To the south, I see that Q-Ball has decided to task the Romanians – with some helpf from a couple German divisions to take care of whatever I have on the Crimea. Q-Ball has flown very little “deep” recon missions.

Seems to me that Q-Ball is re-evaluating his priorities, probably because he's noticed that I've evacuated most armaments factories from the Donets basin

[image]http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/4059/t8overallsituation.png[/image]


Bold arrows are current turn axis of advance, discontinuous arrows denote what I expect Q-Ball to do. He's seen the potential of getting in force to Orel and Kursk, quickly. From there, he can menace pretty much all key strategic areas.

Industry Evacuation

This turn I get 128,730 railcap points, and I'm going to invest 110,000 up front, to evacuate the 8 Armament factories in Vsevolzhsky (just next to Leningrad) and 12 factories from Stalino.

Operations

In the north the battlelines haven't changed much: I've tried to shift as much weight as possible towards the obvious AGN path of intended motion. No attacks there this turn, though. Q-Ball has really piled up a lot of CV, and I'm not looking forward to 25% casualties on the attack (I said crazy odds, not absolutely insane odds). I prefer to rotate some units with heavy fatigue from the front lines, being substituted by somewhat fresher units.

I really need to hold the Rzhev – Vyazma – Bryansk line. Is too early for a fall back, and I would like to delay the showdown at the gates of Moscow for as long as possible

[image]http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/7206/t8rzhevbryansk.png[/image]


Slowly regrouping while falling back, I can deploy my forces to cover the gaps opened by Q-Ball advances. I'm most worried about a “gap” - I hope it's not too obvious – between Vyazma and Bryansk, centered on the city of Spask-Demensk. If I had more divisions I would have covered that route, but being the situation being so critical pretty much everywhere, I have a severe shortage of combat units.

I'm falling back quite fast towards Orel and Kursk, to make sure I'll be able to properly cover Bryansk left flank.

[image]http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/6479/t8orelkursk.png[/image]


Bryansk Front just activated, and the following next turns it'll be given priority. If I read Q-Ball intentions right, putting some real fight for this area is going to be critical.

I think we can consider the Battle for Kharkov started

[image]http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/2425/t8kharkov.png[/image]


I have retreated from the Psel to the next river, the Vorshka. I really wanted to avoid to get Southwestern Front armies divided into two groups, and the best bet, I think, is to keep German panzers in ZOC, rather than retreating and regrouping. If Southwestern Front forces weren't so sorely worn out, I would have tried to attack 2. PzGruppe PzKorps just west of Sumy.

Since the Southwestern Front has been able to consolidate in a substantial way its position, the Southern Front can now concentrate

[image]http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/3496/t8lowerdnepr.png[/image]


Two turns ago, the situation down here was going to hell. Now it's just extremely precarious. A total of 5 divisions arrive to flesh out the depleted commands in the left flank - 9th Army, 29th Army. I'm also expecting the Perekop fortifications to handle whatever Q-Ball throws at them for at least a couple turns.

Summary

Finally I launched 13 attacks, all of them failing. Most of them were launched by pocketed forces on adjacent motorized units or the next best thing. The VVS attacked all German motorized units in sight, with little result. I find interesting that the Luftwaffe didn't appear in force. CAP was very scarce.



Kamiman -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 4:48:44 AM)

How do you get the circle factories and small town names to show up on the map?



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 11:16:22 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kamiman

How do you get the circle factories and small town names to show up on the map?



Hi,

I'm using redmarkus4 map mod. You can find it here:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2755516



Tarhunnas -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 11:55:04 AM)

Excellent AAR! Keep it up! I know from experience that it takes some extra effort to make a good AAR, and it is appreciated!



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 12:25:16 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
Excellent AAR! Keep it up! I know from experience that it takes some extra effort to make a good AAR, and it is appreciated!


Thank you to you and the others who have expressed their appreciation. Yes, it's some work, but it's also quite useful.

I also take that as a hint that the latest issue wasn't as good as the previous ones [:)] Well, things aren't always as exciting... it was sort of a "slow news turn". If anybody would like me to show some particular thing about the game, please feel free to ask me about it.

I'm currently looking forward to start some some analysis/discussion on Ground element fatigue and how important it looks to me and how hard is to "manage it": that is, to what degree it constrains and conditions decision making.



ComradeP -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 1:18:18 PM)

You dug in on the "wrong" hex of the Perekop area, so I wouldn't expect your forts to hold for more than a turn, if that. He can concentrate 6 infantry divisions against the stack you have there, which should be more than enough to remove it. You should've dug in on the hex where the fortified region is, which can only be attacked by 3 units.



Tarhunnas -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 1:24:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

I also take that as a hint that the latest issue wasn't as good as the previous ones [:)]



No, that was not my intention at all! [X(]



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/25/2011 4:36:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
You dug in on the "wrong" hex of the Perekop area, so I wouldn't expect your forts to hold for more than a turn, if that. He can concentrate 6 infantry divisions against the stack you have there, which should be more than enough to remove it. You should've dug in on the hex where the fortified region is, which can only be attacked by 3 units.


I always fortify both hexes, the idea is to fall back as soon as he gets adjacent, into the hex with the FR, leaving a div to hold up the two stack attack you mention.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/26/2011 7:41:11 PM)

Turn 9 – 14 August 1941

The situation is getting more critical with each turn. I'm losing roughly an Army command each turn, and this is way too much for the Red Army to endure for long. This turn Q-Ball has captured 250,000 prisoners reaching 1.5M prisoners in less than two months. Western, Southwestern and Southern Fronts have received heavy damage this turn again. The only place where I'm making trouble for the Wehrmacht is in front of Leningrad.

This turn there have been 120 battles – 1. PzGruppe has moved forward again – and 83% of them have resulted in an Axis victory. German losses are mounting, and I'm surprised to see that KIA and WIA ratios are 2:1 and 2.5:1 favoring the Axis. German AFV losses ratio is still quite high, being steady at 150 per turn. I need to cut the hemorrhage of prisoners, though. Q-Ball is attriting me faster than I can attrit him. The war in the air is looking way better than usual, though. The Luftwaffe has lost over 1,300 aircraft, which is about 4 times less than VVS losses.

Operational Situation Report

The Finns are looking forward to do some mischief on the Svir line, with a cavalry brigade

[image]http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/739/t9svirline.png[/image]


I will need to divert a division here, rather than sending it to Leningrad, where it is sorely needed. To the southwest, a brutal battle rages at the gates of Leningrad

[image]http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/6984/t9leningrad.png[/image]


German infantry and armor has teamed up and make considerable headway east. A massive counterattack is is needed: the 13th PzDiv and 36th Motorized Div are tenously holding a wedge between 28th and 31st Army. It's a very good opportunity to cause substantial losses on the assaulting forces.

On the southern shore of the Ilmen the 11th and 8th armies are still offering an spirited defense

[image]http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/5666/t9southilmen.png[/image]


I need to slowly disengange, these two armies are becoming flanked by the developments to the south.

Q-Ball has shifted his axis of advance in the center

[image]http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/8137/t9rzhevbryansk.png[/image]


he's clearly aiming at Tula. The 3. PzGruppe joined forces to push through the hasty defenses I had deployed around Spask-Demensk, a breakthrough was barely avoided. 2. PzGruppe south and north groups are poised to meet between Bryansk and Sumy

[image]http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/2928/t9kursk.png[/image]


I need to fall back towards Kursk, while covering Bryansk flank. This is becoming a nightmare without end.

The battle for Kharkov hasn't started very well for my interests. The 26th Army has been shattered, and its failure doomed their comrades in the 5th Army

[image]http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/4567/t9kharkov.png[/image]


This has created a massive gap in Southwestern Front lines, and I don't see where I can bring troops to cover the direct approach. This is a complete and total disaster.

The 1. PzGruppe seems to have done good of the rest that Q-Ball gave to it, and the 32nd Army defending the bend has been defeated, scattered, and a sizeable chunk is going to be destroyed

[image]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/5224/t9dneprbend.png[/image]


I won't make commentaries on the shape of the hexes turned around by those motorized divisions holding out next to the Dnepr. Hex art anyone?

Factory Evacuation

This turn I get 131,133 railcap points, plenty to move a substantial part of the T-34 factory at Kharkov. The question is, how much? Right now it has a capacity of 59 T-34 per turn and each points consumes 1,400 railcap points. I will take out 50 points, which is perhaps too much, perhaps not. I've made some headway evacuating Armaments, so I think I can afford this expense. It gets 58% damage, which is not bad at all. This means that until Turn 29 it won't be expanding again, and I don't expect it to be producing much until Turn 18 or so. Besides that, I move out the last 9 Armament factories from Stalino. I've just spent 124,000 railcap points. I really have to move very little troops...

Operations

I feel really helpless in the south. My troops have been completely defeated so many times down there that I've lost count. This is really one of my saddest moments in e-mail wargaming.

The Zaporozhye – Stalino strategic defense operation starts this turn, with a checkerboard

[image]http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/6520/t9stalinoops.png[/image]


not even a good one, there are obvious gaps in it. But to be exploited they require the German spearheads to deviate to the south, deflecting it somewhat from Stalino itself, whose defenses are very precarious

[image]http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/2597/t9stalinodefenses.png[/image]


most of the forces I had been assembling on this area are either to the east, or already destroyed on the west bank of the Dnepr. This is sad.

Southwestern Front is almost destroyed. Trying to defend the rivers that flow from north to south just west of Kharkov is not feasible, so my only option left is to fall back towards the city itself – its defenses are in better shape than those in Stalino – while covering its flanks.

[image]http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/5516/t9kharkovoperations.png[/image]


Q-Ball maneuver is sort of obvious. If he goes for a double pincer envolepment of Kharkov I will retreat towards Voronezh. I haven't got much more options, either.

2 PzGruppe forces threaten Orel and Kursk from three different axis

[image]http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/4764/t9orelkurskops.png[/image]


so I deploy in a hedgehog yet again. Bryansk Front has received some reinforcements, but they're ridiculous when compared with what Q-Ball can throw into this region.

If 3. PzGruppe wants to bypass Rzhev and Vyazma, fair enough. The battle will take place in the forests, swamps and along the rivers between Spask – Demensk and Tula

[image]http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/471/t9rzhevbryanskops.png[/image]


Reserve and Western Front are completely mixed. I don't know when I'll be able to rationalize the deployments here. The retreat here means that the lines between Rzhev and the Valdai Hills need to retreat as well

[image]http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/874/t9rzhevvaldai.png[/image]


When I see how thin I'm here I'm horrified. German infantry will be wondering where the enemy is, with all those thick forests.

I reinforce the position south of the Ilmen

[image]http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/9453/t9starayarussaops.png[/image]


though I'm quite happy with my troops performance here, they were starting to buckle under the pressure. If Q-Ball allows me, I am to retreat next turn along the river that flows from south to north just west of Demyansk.

Last turn assault was fearsome, and two German motorized divisions were in a very exposed position. Counterattacking is not an option, is a must. A powerful force with elements of 28th and 31st Armies launches a vicious counterattack

[image]http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/6269/t9leningradcounterattac.png[/image]


prepped by a hasty attack from a Tank Division – this feels like slapping someone with a tuna fish – and several VVS attacks, 11 divisions, supported by a lot of artillery and tanks cause important losses on 6th PanzerDivision and 36th Motorized Division. Engineering and Combat values were pretty high.

The battle lines are arranged as follows

[image]http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/2694/t9leningradbattlelines.png[/image]


I continue with my strategy of not giving away one hex for free in front of Leningrad, and being more flexible to the south, trying to bait Q-Ball to pursue the path of least resistance.

Summary & Final thoughts

Was glvaca right after all? Sincerely, I don't know what to think now. Thinking the campaign as a re-enactment of Napoleon's 1812 campaign in Russia, does really make sense? I mean, throwing massive 6 hex deep hedgehogs that retreat at least 6 hexes per turn and setting up for a massive Borodino-like showdown. Napoleon won Borodino and got "the cigar" as Empire101 said in another thread (too bad that cigar fell into some curtains and the city got burnt to its foundations).

By doing what I've done, with a debatable skill and luck, I've achieved a few things. I've saved a lot of industry, yes. I'm giving a lot of trouble (or was, let's see next turn) on the road to Leningrad. Average panzer strength is of about 50 per PanzerDivision. The Luftwaffe seems to be being bled white. But, in exchange, the Red Army is on the verge of being destroyed. And Q-Ball is about to break out into Central Russia, and my chances of defeating a major push towards Moscow - the cigar/cherry on top of the cake - are quite low. Is it a good deal? Now this is somewhat doubtful.

I've launched 19 ground attacks this turn, and only won the one I have shown before. Losses have been very high, especially between pocketed units and this is good: “Better dead than hiwi” is the lemma of the Red Army soldiers.

I've got Q-Ball turn 10 on my inbox. Time to open it and get my eyes watery again.



Priapus1 -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/26/2011 8:20:17 PM)

Great AAR! Would it be possible to see an image of the whole front?



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/26/2011 8:25:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Priapus1

Great AAR! Would it be possible to see an image of the whole front?


Sure, next turn :)



M60A3TTS -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (9/26/2011 9:24:02 PM)

Any commander who countenances retreat before the capital should be liquidated without mercy.



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