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Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (2/7/2012 12:23:09 PM)
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This post took longer to create than I expected. I had a lot that I wanted to explain about the situation, rather than just posting a simple image. So, first the image, then the explanation:
[image]local://upfiles/38062/3921BE95A8B14655BAABC89834CAC6B5.jpg[/image]
In response to the American invasion near Bordeaux, the Axis tried to close off opportunities to advance or to expand the beachhead. The Soviet PARA was the only unit that was disorganized by the Ground Strike on Rostov, but that freed up the units holding Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, and Constanta so that they could be railed to the Western Front to replace units that needed to shift positions:
The 3-1 GARR from Dnepropetrovsk railed to Antwerp, allowing the Kiel MIL to move to Calais, which allowed the Italian INF and ART to take up positions in Rouen. That move freed up the Milan MIL to move south with the Venice MIL in support of their Yugoslavian allies.
The 5-1 GARR from Odessa railed to Brest, freeing up the Rumainian 4-3 INF to move east. It now has has Cherbourg in its ZOC, which is where the Rumanian CAV was hiding out before the Americans landed.
The 2-2 MIL from Constanta railed to the hex west of Santander, where HQ-I Badoglia was providing supply to German troops in the region. He had to move east to keep Bayonne in ZOC and to maintain supply to the German 5-4 INF that shifted out of Spain to garrison Bordeaux.
Additionally, the Germans sent the new MTN unit toward the Americans, and also started moving the 8-3 INF and 1-3 SS INF Division to the southwest from Kiel (they were originally intended for the Danish Front).
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Tangent:
HQ-A Manstein and his 21-factor, 5-movement point stack reinforced Konigsberg at the start of the turn with the intention of moving up toward Leningrad. His plans didn't change. Germany is probably going to build an O-chit at the end of this turn, and that will arrive in M/A '42.
For comparison: Last year, from the start of S/O '40 to the end of J/F '41, there were only 9 Axis impulses (and 8 Allied). The year before that, there were 10 Axis impulses during the same stretch (9 for the Allies).
Regardless of the weather, Manstein needs to be up near Leningrad by the time the O-chit arrives. With a little luck, he might be able to make the attack when it is snowing. He can double the combat factors of 10 units. Then he can reorganize them all and let them try a 2nd attack if it is needed.
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Back to Business:
The Italian 4-1 GARR in La Rochelle railed in from Casablanca. With another fresh North African TERR added as a reinforcement (Algierian placed in Oran), another unit was available to create ZOCs in Morocco, and the GARR was free to relieve the Yugoslavian 2-4 CAV, which began the impulse OOS. HQ-I Prince Paul moved out of the forest to bring the CAV back into supply. The CAV then joined the vulnerable HQ to supply a combat loss if push came to shove. It could have blocked off the American advance, but that left Prince Paul in a very dangerous position, facing a 4:1 attack by the Americans (before Ground Support).
All of these moves were made with a prayer that Fine weather would hold out in the North Temperate zone (60% chance of clear skies).
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The Wallies can take advantage of this situation. If both the CW and USA take Combined Actions this impulse, the American MAR and INF Division can move 1 hex northeast. Then, an 8-5 white-print MOT (USA) and a 2-3 INF Division (CW) can debark into the invasion hex with MacArthur. That would make 22 factors of Allied units in France -- not easy to get rid of, and a force strong enough to make an attack or two!
If I had attempted the invasion last turn, the reinforcements could not have come. The Germans would have placed HQ-A Manstein on the French border, and the Americans would be forced to pull out. It might have bought 2 impulses for the defenders of Leningrad, but now the Wallies might actually be able to stay in France for a while. (Note: I played the German reinforcements as if they didn't recognize the full invasion threat).
None of this will hold up other plans, either. The New York MIL will still make it to Murmansk, and a few more reinforcements can still be delivered from the USA to the UK or N. Ireland. Also, the SUB attack on the Japanese convoys can still happen . . . with the added bonus of Stormy weather in the S. China Sea preventing any NAV interference. Of course, the American SUB fleet can probably only reach the 2 Box in a Combined Action (1 SUB could get to the 3 Box, but there might not be enough Naval Moves available), but a few lucky rolls should do the trick.
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So, the question now is: How will the Axis respond to a sustained invasion of France?
And the answer is: That all depends on what happens on the Turkish border. Until next turn, a lack of land units and sealift limits how many reinforcements the Wallies can send to France. If Germany can align the Turks before the turn ends, the Soviet Union will probably collapse quickly. A lot of good German troops can be railed back from Persia in time to stop the Wallies before they get too deep into France. If it looks like the Germans can't align the Turks until next turn, then the forces will have to come from somewhere else. That probably means either Rommel or Rundstedt will have to leave the front lines and take some of the heavy armor with them (which is why HQ-I von Leeb was so important).
Either way, the decision can't be put off for too long. Italy has no defenders at the moment. The reason for this, of course, is the extremely rapid expansion of the Axis empires. "Aggressive" hardly describes the Axis play so far. One thing that factored into the decision to leave Italy barren is the Wallies' failure to build ATR units and PARA Corps (or Divisions) so far (entered into my notes: Wallies need Air Transport!). However, with a force capable of inflicting casualties in France, and with a lot of sealift on the horizon (USA has 2 x AMPH and 2 x TRS arriving next turn), Italy can't be left alone, and the Germans need to counter-attack ASAP.
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Semi-Tangent:
One of the reasons I decided to use the Rumanian and Yugoslavian forces to garrison France was the fact that if losses are taken, they come back where they can be used as Garrison troops -- replacing the units that needed to return to replace them on the Western Front. This is more true for the Rumanians than it is for Yugoslavian troops, but it does apply to both to some extent.
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