RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (Full Version)

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Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/21/2011 11:25:57 PM)

Other end-of-impulse items:

Germany finally got its Stukas and another fighter to the front lines (Brussels), and Japan sent its weakling fighters on thier way back toward Japan, so that if they get another impulse to rebase one more time, they can finish the trip and come off the map during the next reinforcement phase. (Can't figure out why I didn't scrap these 3-Factor fighters in the first place [>:] )

But guess what, everyone . . . the turn just ended! A roll of 3 at 30% chance to end, moving the Initiative 1 step toward the Allies.

I'll give you the full End-of-Turn rundown when I'm finished with the details, but for now, these are the units that were destroyed in S/O '39.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/0782C07432C345E89F9489A6441CC50F.jpg[/image]



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/21/2011 11:39:22 PM)

End of Turn Roll: 3 (30%)
7 Total Impulses, +1 Allied Initiative

No Partisans

Germany placed 2 markers on Offense (2456 [4], 2655 [4])
USSR placed 1 marker on Defense (876 [1])
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (3003 [5])
USA chooses Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor (Ja-6); USE-3 (1 chit moved, 3 of 5 [4])
USA chooses Occupy Greenland and Iceland (Ge/It-9); USE-4 (1 chit moved, 2 of 4 [3])
----------
These were the choices I had for US Entry Options:

[image]local://upfiles/38062/F2E60572249C48FDBAC00CDF117D6819.jpg[/image]



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/21/2011 11:40:45 PM)

And here's how things looked after choosing those 2 options:

Ge/It Entry: 19
Ge/It Tension: 7
Chance of DOW: None
Ja Entry: 21
Ja Tension: 8
Chance of DOW: None

[image]local://upfiles/38062/2E0CE9A7C8D849ACAA52E190895BC0C5.jpg[/image]



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/21/2011 11:45:38 PM)

As in the last game, there was a lot of aggressive Axis play, but there were also a good number of high chits drawn. I know there are going to be questions about how this reflects on the current system, but 2 games does not make a really good-sized pool to make any real comparisons. It's going to take hundreds of games to determine if there truly is any "bias" in the program or not.

I've got to sort through some details, and it's going to take some time. I really wasn't expecting the turn to end yet, and while I could have changed the fact, there really isn't any point in it, is there? Let the chips fall where they may. It just means I have to do some planning and checking I wasn't expecting to do yet. This probably means it'll be tomorrow sometime that the rest of the End-of-Turn stuff gets posted . . .

. . . so, in the meantime, feel free to suggest build strategies, and I'll look through them for ideas.
-----
Edit: Unless I've miscalculated, the available BP are as follows:

Germany: 18
Italy: 3
Japan: 11

China: 4
CW: 13
France: 4
USA: 11
USSR: 8



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 2:23:32 AM)

I actually managed to get through the end of the turn without much trouble at all. I thought I was going to be too tired to think about it, but it turned out to be less to deal with than I expected, mostly because it was just the first turn of the game, but also because I forgot I hadn't yet chosen the Entry Options that would let me set up Trade Agreements that I had planned.

Anyway, before I reveal what I did, I'm still interested in hearing what you think I should have done (hoping I anticipated things pretty well). I do have a pretty map for you, though, showing the World Map, as it looks at the start of N/D '39:

[image]local://upfiles/38062/D7280CB415A948E5B9879F7103931ED1.jpg[/image]



brian brian -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 3:00:12 AM)

well 5 chits out of 9 pulled with a value 4 or 5 is again boosting the USE levels very quickly. this is though, a good example of how not to play the Axis; they must make progress on the map, but preferably not at a cost of seeing the US enter the war in early 1941, which issuing so many questionably valuable DOWs in 1939 will probably accomplish. Looks like 1st gear-up will come in M/A or M/J 40 at latest, and the two chits for Vichy declaration could have the US well on the way to War Appropriations with some continued luck. Perhaps the increased risk of the US pulling a 4 or 5 would make long-term MWiF Axis players more conservative in 1939.

I would just say it would look nice on the screen to see some sort of actual chit as in the game, but that would perhaps be feature creep.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 4:05:35 AM)

Here's a summary of what "could" have happened with chit draws:

Red means a chit could have been added.
Blue means a chit could have been removed.
Purple means a chit was to be added, without a roll.

New Game for 09.02.05

US Entry Markers:
2 to Ge/It Pool: (2238 [4], 2075 [3])
1 to Ja Pool: (2688 [4])

Impulse: 1
Germany DOW Poland (CW); USE-8 (+1 chit, 2345 [3])
Japan aligned Siam; USE-1 (+1 chit, 2698 [4]
Japan entered Ichang; USE-1 (+1 chit, 1279 [2])
And you're not going to believe this . . . taking Changsha: USE-1 (+1 chit, 32 [0])

Impulse: 2
CW DOW Germany; USE-8 (-1 chit, 2 of 3 [3])

Impulse: 3
Italy DOW France; USE-7 (+1 chit, 751 [1])
Germany DOW Denmark (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
Germany DOW Netherlands (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
Germany DOW Hungary (CW); USE-10 (no chit)
Japan moves its MAR Division into Pakhoi, then on to Nanning; USE-6 (no chit)

Impulse: 4
USSR DOW Persia (Ja); USE-1 (-1 chit, 1 of 3 [1])
USSR moves the CAV from Minsk to the forest SW of Vilna; USE-8 (no chit)

Impulse: 5
Italy DOW CW; USE-3 (+1 chit, 2898 [4])
Germany DOW Belgium (CW); USE-6 (+1 chit, 770 [1])

Impulse: 9
. . . including taking Nanyang with MOT; USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Chengchow: Assault, Fractional Odds .509 (No); Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (3003 [5])
-----
As you can see, the Mandatory chits totaled 4 (3, 4, 4, 5)
The possible additions to the Entry Pools went 7 out of 13 (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4)
The possible removals from the Entry Pools went 2 of 3 (1, 3)

If the chits that the Axis had nothing to do with were not nearly so high valued, things would be a lot different; they total 16 in value. Out of 13 chances to add chits, the Axis only added 15 in total value, out of 3 chances to remove chits, a total value of 4 got removed. Maybe the Axis should have taken into account the high initial chit draws, but I think that looking only at what the Axis did in terms of aggressive play, the chit draws were fairly reasonable. Add to that the fact that the Allies are playing very conservatively as far as chit draws are concerned -- the Baltic States are still unoccupied, and neither of the two Soviet claims were made -- I'm not sure this is entirely a bad way for the Axis to play.

If the Axis moves first, and is lucky enough to get some helpful weather (and I'm not telling yet [:'(] ) in N/D '39, France might not even make it to 1940 if Vichy does get declared. If that choice is made, closing the Med might be right out the window, and Germany could well be in position to tranfer its troops back to Poland for a Summer '40 Barbarossa, which would be devastating for the USSR. If that means the Soviets can also be eliminated, it may not matter how strong the USA is or how early they enter the war. The same applies to Japan having a chance at taking China out of the game. If either or both of these happen, the USA and CW will still be hard-pressed to come back in force. While waiting for the inevitable invasions, Germany and Italy could still try closing the Med . . . just a little later than planned.

So, in conclusion, I don't think the Axis has done anything completely wrong yet, though they are about to (double-DOW on Greece).



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 12:48:29 PM)

Just another follow-up on the chit pool composition in 1939, here are the chances of pulling a chit with each value:

0 - 1.7%
1 - 30.2%
2 - 24.9%
3 - 21.1%
4 - 20.9%
5 - 1.3%

So, for the initial draw, there was a 42% chance that each of the 3 starting chits would be a 3 or a 4. The expected starting chits should on average, have been worth 2.33 each, or a total value of 7. In this game, the average was 3.66, totaling 11. However, given the chit distribution, the chances of pulling 2 chits with a value of 2, and 1 chit valued at 3 (averaging 2.33) are almost the same as drawing 2 chits with a value of 4, and 1 chit valued at 3 (averaging 3.66). For each chit, there is a 1 in 4 chance of drawing a 2, and 1 in 5 chance of drawing a 4 (roughly). That's roughly the same chances.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's a summary of what "could" have happened with chit draws:

Red means a chit could have been added.
Blue means a chit could have been removed.
Purple means a chit was to be added, without a roll.

New Game for 09.02.05

US Entry Markers:
2 to Ge/It Pool: (2238 [4], 2075 [3])
1 to Ja Pool: (2688 [4])


For each of the other chit draws, I'll now add in the chance of drawing a chit in the first place.

quote:

Impulse: 1
120% Germany DOW Poland (CW); USE-8 (+1 chit, 2345 [3])
30% Japan aligned Siam; USE-1 (+1 chit, 2698 [4]
20% Japan entered Ichang; USE-1 (+1 chit, 1279 [2])
30% And you're not going to believe this . . . taking Changsha: USE-1 (+1 chit, 32 [0])

Impulse: 2
120% CW DOW Germany; USE-8 (-1 chit, 2 of 3 [3])

Impulse: 3
70% Italy DOW France; USE-7 (+1 chit, 751 [1])
30% Germany DOW Denmark (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
30% Germany DOW Netherlands (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
30% Germany DOW Hungary (CW); USE-10 (no chit)
20% Japan moves its MAR Division into Pakhoi, then on to Nanning; USE-6 (no chit)

Impulse: 4
90% USSR DOW Persia (Ja); USE-1 (-1 chit, 1 of 3 [1])
70% USSR moves the CAV from Minsk to the forest SW of Vilna; USE-8 (no chit)

Impulse: 5
70% Italy DOW CW; USE-3 (+1 chit, 2898 [4])
80% Germany DOW Belgium (CW); USE-6 (+1 chit, 770 [1])

Impulse: 9
20% . . . including taking Nanyang with MOT; USE-9 (no chit)
20% Attack on Chengchow: Assault, Fractional Odds .509 (No); Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)


So, and I'm really not sure I understand how this works, but you would expect the total number of chits drawn to be 2.9 in addition to the original 3. Add in the final draw at the end of the turn (below), and you get 6.9 chits that should be in the Entry and Tension Pools in the final tally. (Did I calculate that correctly?)

Let's call it 7 chits, because I believe in 6.9 chits as much as I believe in the "average American family" having 2.4 kids and half of a dog. I've never see a family with exactly 2.4 kids, and I'll never see the pools have exactly 6.9 chits. So, let us say we should expect to see 7 chits in the pools.

The 7 chits should total 16.31 in value (I'll deal with partial value, but not partial chits). Reality has 9 chits in the pools, with a total value of 27, which averages out (quite neatly) to 3 per chit. So, reality shows the Axis was unlucky by about 2 chit draws and a deviation of +.67 per chit.

Now, let's see where that unluckiness happened:
quote:

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (3003 [5])
-----
As you can see, the Mandatory chits totaled 4 (3, 4, 4, 5)

This 4 chits total 16 in value, with a deviation of +1.67, completely beyond Axis control.
quote:

The possible additions to the Entry Pools went 7 out of 13 (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4)

Here we would have expected 5.7 chits, so the Axis was unlucky by 1.3 chits drawn. The 7 chits, though, total 15, averaging 2.14, which is a deviation of -.19, or about what you would expect. The bad luck here is in the extra chits drawn.
quote:

The possible removals from the Entry Pools went 2 of 3 (1, 3)

And, finally, you would expect 2.8 chits to have been removed, which accounts for the rest of the Axis "bad luck". The 2 chits removed total 4, average 2, which is a deviation of -.33 (which, in this case favors the Allies).

All I can really say about this, is that the Axis play was aggressive, but everything within its control came out roughly as expected, with the exception of an additional chit (forget the .3) Everything outside direct Axis control ran in favor of the Allies. Here we add the .3 to the .8 to get a chit that "should" have been removed, and the deviations obviously favored the Allies.

So, can the Axis play really be described as "not how to play the Axis" given the fact that the Axis technically doesn't know what is in the pools? If the expected chit values are used instead of the actual values, at the end of the turn, the Axis would estimate the following numbers before any Options are chosen (actual numbers in parentheses):

Ge/It chit value: 9.32 (12)
Ja chit value: 11.65 (15)

Ge/It Entry Level: 19.8 (25.5)
Ja Entry Level: 22.14 (28.5)

And, after each Entry Pool moved an "expected value" chit of 2.33 to the Tension Pools:

Ge/It Entry chit value: 6.99 (9)
Ge/It Tension chit value: 2.33 (3)
Ja Entry chit value: 9.32 (11)
Ja Tension chit value: 2.33 (4)

Ge/It Entry Level: 15.15 (19)
Ge/It Tension Level: 4.66 (7)
Ja Entry Level: 17.48 (21)
Ja Tension Level: 4.66 (8)

Having little experience with as many games as some of you have seen/played, are the numbers the Axis would have "estimated" still extremely high for S/O '39? If so, then I suppose you could make a case for the Axis having played foolishly. But remember, there are still 2 chits in the pools that could not have been "expected" based on how the Axis played. Assume that one chit comes out of each Entry Pool (USSR failure to remove one for taking E. Poland for the Ge/It; an extra chit for taking a Chinese city for Ja), and here's what the Axis play should have produced:

Ge/It Entry chit value: 4.66 (9)
Ge/It Tension chit value: 2.33 (3)
Ja Entry chit value: 6.99 (11)
Ja Tension chit value: 2.33 (4)

Ge/It Entry Level: 10.49 (19)
Ge/It Tension Level: 4.66 (7)
Ja Entry Level: 12.82 (21)
Ja Tension Level: 4.66 (8)

Now, if you look at the last actions that the Axis took to actually add a chit to each pool, you find the German DOW on Belgium in Impulse #5, which may have been questionable, but you have to go all the way back to Impulse #1 to find the problem in the Japanese strategy. In that case, you would expect .8 chits to be added to the Ja Entry Pool. Instead, you get 3 straight rolls of '1' and add 3 chits. That's just bad luck, if you ask me. If even one of those hadn't produced a chit, and if the occupation of E. Poland had removed a chit (as it does 70% of the time), the Axis could reasonably have expected the numbers listed immediately above.

So, I ask again, was the Axis play really so aggressive as to be defined as "how not to play the Axis"? Or was it just the luck of the draw -- quite literally -- on the part of the Allies?

I'm not putting this all together as a defense of my gameplay. I'm really curious, because all of us have had information that the Axis would not have in an actual game -- the actual running totals for the US Entry Pools. (If I have screwed up my math anywhere, please let me know, since it might invalidate my entire set of arguments).

Thoughts, anyone?
-----
Edit: Having said all of this, the fact that the US was able choose to Relocate the fleet to Pearl Harbor should scare the pants off the Axis at this point, changing their behavior quite a bit. On the other hand, the damage has already been done. It might be wise to hold off for a turn before making any more DOWs, of course (particularly on Greece), since in 1940 there is a 55% chance of a 0 or 1 for each chit drawn. The only problem with that is that, particularly in China, the Axis needs to take advantage of its present position. The DOW on Greece can probably wait until 1940, but Japan needs to keep the pressure on China at a very high level. That might mean taking additional cities in N/D '39, if it seems possible to isolate a lot of units.

On the German side of things, if Vichy is going to be the choice, getting that done in '39 could be a devestating blow to the Allies. France is still very weak and vulnerable (yeah, that's the CW's fault, I know) and good weather in N/D '39 could see Paris fall. How much should this impact the Axis strategy vs. the risk of higher chit draws? I don't really know.



Centuur -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 7:02:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

As in the last game, there was a lot of aggressive Axis play, but there were also a good number of high chits drawn. I know there are going to be questions about how this reflects on the current system, but 2 games does not make a really good-sized pool to make any real comparisons. It's going to take hundreds of games to determine if there truly is any "bias" in the program or not.

I've got to sort through some details, and it's going to take some time. I really wasn't expecting the turn to end yet, and while I could have changed the fact, there really isn't any point in it, is there? Let the chips fall where they may. It just means I have to do some planning and checking I wasn't expecting to do yet. This probably means it'll be tomorrow sometime that the rest of the End-of-Turn stuff gets posted . . .

. . . so, in the meantime, feel free to suggest build strategies, and I'll look through them for ideas.
-----
Edit: Unless I've miscalculated, the available BP are as follows:

Germany: 18
Italy: 3
Japan: 11

China: 4
CW: 13
France: 4
USA: 11
USSR: 8

Without checking the force pools (so some units might not be available until 1940...):
USSR 1939: ARM - HQ - Infantry units
USA: Shipbuilding (Carriers. Repairs can wait...). However, don't forget to build some infantry type units during 1940 to make sure Pearl and Pago Pago get garrisons (since US entry is already high, with those lucky draws, this is somewhat earlier than normal).
France: empty the MIL and GAR forcepools as soon as possible, since Gort is still drinking tea on the Island and there's a gap in the frontline...
CW: INF, MIL or GAR, whatever there is available with the highest changes of getting UK units. If there is a HQ available (don't know if there is one to build in 1939) it's got top priority. Of course at least one aircraft has to be build (if there isn't any money left, simply build a CVP-0 te get gearing for planes. You'll have to have you're FTR's in place in M/A 1940, so some pilots might come in handy.
China: any infantry type of unit will do. I like the MIL and the GAR. They are cheap and arrive fast...

Japan: If there is a good chanche of getting a reasonable LND-3 (if you've drawn very bad at setup...), you might want to build one (don't forget the pilot). If not, it's nice to build fast moving land units: a MECH division, CAV and some infantry (Militia/Territorial) units in the first two turns. I really like the large, large Chinese map, so there are gaps all around there and fast units are also capable of eliminating the early partisans. There's time enough for building carriers. I would delay those activities until the first turn of 1940...
Italy: no builds. I'll save those BP for the Marines to be build next turn. It's my favourite Italian unit to put pressure on the CW/France. Together with the nice Italian shore bombardment abilities it's a real asset... Also: you're closing the Med, aren't you. I would, if I'm playing the Italians. No way I'm going to support any other Axis (read: German) strategy, before the Med has become a nice Axis (Italian) lake. And with an early collapse of France possible, wouldn't it be nice to crack Spain and Gibraltar in 1940? That's good Italian politics.
Germany: Any good Stuka's or FTR's left in the Force Pool with a reasonable chanche of getting them (or do you have to wait for 1940 so you can first scrap some terrible ones still left around in those force pools). Depends on you're draw at setup.
Now, depending on the strategy, apart from those aircraft:
close the MED: HQ - PARA - MTN - SUB - Infantry
Barbarossa: HQ - PARA - MECH - MTN - Infantry
Now, if you're a very generous German player (I am, generally), I'll going to give to the Italians a whole lot of BP/Resources to build a huge airforce for me, starting next turn. I'll lend lease the Stuka and the Ju-88. He'll build me an airforce so I'm capable of eliminating all enemies with an Italian air action, combined with German land actions. So, starting next turn, he will get at least 5 BP a turn from Germany. Expensive: yes, but oh how effective to use against Spain and later in the game in Russia...

Now, don't forget first to scrap planes you couldn't scrap because you were neutral at the start of the game. You can scrap an entire extra year of planes now you've entered the war.

Let's see what you've done... I'm not the least curious... [sm=00000613.gif]



Centuur -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 7:36:07 PM)

On you're question: was the Axis very aggressive: yes. However I believe there is a saying which says: opportunity killed the cat...
That's how it should be. You got good weather in the first turn, so you've used it. Hell: by doing so you might be able, if weather stays nice, to get a crack at killing the French in winter. Now that's gaining time for you. And time is everything in this game.
Now, on the US entry thing, as the Axis I'm not totally happy. I'm happy about one thing though... The USA has just telegraphed to me his entry position and isn't totally aware of the very damaging things he could have done to the Axis war effort, by choosing that particular option.

The relocation of the fleet to Pearl is such a high entry number, that Axis now knows there aren't just only a lot of chits already in the pools (bad luck with die rolls), but also that the draw was bad from their point of view. So, they know the USA is probably going to get into war early... Also: what is the benefit of the fleet being in Pearl at this moment? It isn't even going to make a headline in a Japanese newspaper in this stage of the war.
With such high chits in the USA pools, I wouldn't choose such an high entry option at all. Simply wait until later. The USA is now really screaming to the Axis: I've drawn so well...
The Iceland option I would have played too, but I would have embargoed the Japanese. You than say to the Axis: I'm not giving anything away on my draw, since I've chosen in the middle of things...
That's how you play. You'll give only a very few things away with US entry.
Also, you can play as next option 23 in the next turn. Now we're talking... You've just taken away 2 whole resources from the Japanese. That's very, very damaging to the Japanese war effort in 1939! Tokyo in total shock by the US aggression against the Empire. Only oil comes in. He's just lost a huge number of build points in 1940. Headlines in the Japanese newspapers: no more hamburgers to be delivered to McDonalds in Tokyo... [:D]

WiF is all about economics, some say. I don't totally agree with this, however, in this case, they are right. The less resources you'll have to hand over to the Axis as the USA (and the USSR) the better it is.






Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 7:59:10 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

On you're question: was the Axis very aggressive: yes. However I believe there is a saying which says: opportunity killed the cat...
That's how it should be. You got good weather in the first turn, so you've used it. Hell: by doing so you might be able, if weather stays nice, to get a crack at killing the French in winter. Now that's gaining time for you. And time is everything in this game.
Now, on the US entry thing, as the Axis I'm not totally happy. I'm happy about one thing though... The USA has just telegraphed to me his entry position and isn't totally aware of the very damaging things he could have done to the Axis war effort, by choosing that particular option.

The relocation of the fleet to Pearl is such a high entry number, that Axis now knows there aren't just only a lot of chits already in the pools (bad luck with die rolls), but also that the draw was bad from their point of view. So, they know the USA is probably going to get into war early... Also: what is the benefit of the fleet being in Pearl at this moment? It isn't even going to make a headline in a Japanese newspaper in this stage of the war.
With such high chits in the USA pools, I wouldn't choose such an high entry option at all. Simply wait until later. The USA is now really screaming to the Axis: I've drawn so well...
The Iceland option I would have played too, but I would have embargoed the Japanese. You than say to the Axis: I'm not giving anything away on my draw, since I've chosen in the middle of things...
That's how you play. You'll give only a very few things away with US entry.
Also, you can play as next option 23 in the next turn. Now we're talking... You've just taken away 2 whole resources from the Japanese. That's very, very damaging to the Japanese war effort in 1939! Tokyo in total shock by the US aggression against the Empire. Only oil comes in. He's just lost a huge number of build points in 1940. Headlines in the Japanese newspapers: no more hamburgers to be delivered to McDonalds in Tokyo... [:D]

WiF is all about economics, some say. I don't totally agree with this, however, in this case, they are right. The less resources you'll have to hand over to the Axis as the USA (and the USSR) the better it is.

To be absolutely honest, I was just so shocked at having the opportunity to move the fleet to Pearl on the first turn, that I completely forgot that I wanted to send Resources to the Western Allies ASAP. You're right, it was a dumb move. Sometimes they happen (particularly when I'm playing the Allied side).
-----
Edit: I have my End of Turn post all ready to cut and paste, but I want to see if there are any other voices to be heard before doing so.



composer99 -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 8:02:32 PM)

One benefit of picking Fleet to Pearl so early is that the US can manipulate tension for Japan all the way through, giving the US a very good chance of getting the tension it needs for its gear ups very quickly.

So on balance I think it's reasonable for the US to pick it right away.

After that I concur with Centuur that the US should prioritize knocking off Japanese resources. An oil embargo by mid-1940 would be crippling.

Edit: In fact, I would suggest the USA should pass the embargo options vs Japan over the next three turns (you can pick but one a turn) if possible and try not to generate tension vs Japan until picking the last one to ensure it has enough entry to do so.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 8:15:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

One benefit of picking Fleet to Pearl so early is that the US can manipulate tension for Japan all the way through, giving the US a very good chance of getting the tension it needs for its gear ups very quickly.

So on balance I think it's reasonable for the US to pick it right away.

After that I concur with Centuur that the US should prioritize knocking off Japanese resources. An oil embargo by mid-1940 would be crippling.

Edit: In fact, I would suggest the USA should pass the embargo options vs Japan over the next three turns (you can pick but one a turn) if possible and try not to generate tension vs Japan until picking the last one to ensure it has enough entry to do so.

Would you prioritize this ahead of Gear Up Production and Pass War Appropriations Bill?



Orm -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 8:41:12 PM)

I would also have relocated the Fleet to Pearl at once. It is nice to have the option to manipulate the tension. Then I would focus on production and after that reducing resources to Japan.

Edit: I would try to lower the risk to gain tension versus Japan. I would however pick more options.



composer99 -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 8:45:52 PM)

Based on your post #213 US needs 1 more non-zero chit in the Japan tension pool and 1 more chit valued 2+ in the Germany/Italy tension pool to be able to pass the first gear up.

So I would try to get the first gear up out of the way before going full steam for the embargo, which I think would allow you to be in range of passing war appropriations around the same turn.

Edit: Forgot to add post number with screenshot of US entry.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 8:54:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Based on your post # US needs 1 more non-zero chit in the Japan tension pool and 1 more chit valued 2+ in the Germany/Italy tension pool to be able to pass the first gear up.

So I would try to get the first gear up out of the way before going full steam for the embargo, which I think would allow you to be in range of passing war appropriations around the same turn.

Thanks for the clarification. I kind of guessed that doubling USA production might trump hitting Japan hard, but you folks have a lot more experience than I do.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 8:56:28 PM)

With so many people in the forum right now, I decided not to let it wait any longer, so here it is, the end of turn sequence that I ran, for better or worse:

France didn't have enough Oil to reorganize its fleet. This was a bit of poor planning on my part, using both HQs to reorg units that probably could have waited.

Scrapping
France scrapped CL Jeanne D'Arc
Germany scrapped 2 x CVP-1, 1 x LND-2

Builds:
China (4): 1 x CAV, 1 x MIL
CW (13): 3 x MIL, 2 x CV(1st), 2 x CVP-0, 1 x NAV-3
France (4): 2 x MIL
USA (11): 1 x TERR, 1 x GARR, 1 x CV(1st), 2 x CVP-0, 1 x CVP-1, 1 x CV(Repair), 1 x Pilot
USSR (8): 1 x GARR, 1 x LND-4, 1 x Pilot
Germany (18): 1 x HQ-A, 2 x MIL, 1 x LND-2, 1 x CV(2nd), 1 x Pilot
Italy (3): 1 x BB(Repair), 1 x SUB(2nd)
Japan (11): 1 x MIL, 2 x TERR, 1 x AMPH(1st), 1 x CVP-0, 1 x CV(2nd)

N/D '39 Gearing Limits (above 1):
China: 2 x Infantry, 2 x Cavalry
CW: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 4 x Air
France: 3 x Infantry
USA: 3 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 3 x Air, 2 x Pilot
USSR: 2 x Infantry, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Germany: 3 x Infantry, 2 x Armor, 2 x Ship, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Italy: 2 x Ship, 2 x Submarine
Japan: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 2 x Air

Conquest:
Persia cc (completely conquered) by USSR
Netherlands conquered by Germany
Belgium conquered by Germany
Denmark cc by Germany
Poland cc by Germany
Malta cc by Italy
Hungary cc by Germany
Anglo-Egyptian Sudan cc by Italy
French Somaliland cc by Italy
Kenya cc by Italy
Corsica cc by Italy

New Home Countries:
Netherlands set up a Government in Exile in NEI
Belgium set up a Government in Exile in Belgian Congo

New Minor Countries:
Faeroes converted to a Neutral minor country

Other Activites:
Captured Dutch CL given to Italy (Cons Pool)

Factory Destruction:
Germany destroys Blue Factory in Liege and Amsterdam
Japan destroys Blue Factory in Changsha

Reinforcements:
Germany assigns 2 of 3 Pilots to FTR and LND
Germany primarily reinforces the Western Front
Italy assigns a Pilot to LND
Italy places LND in Palermo, MOT in Taranto
Japan places the Kyoto MIL and 2 x TERR
CW assigns 3 Pilots to LND, 1 to NAV
CW places its MIL, loads its NAV into Liverpool, its LNDs near London, a CP in Cape Town, and removes 1 LND from London
France places Metz and Marseilles MIL
USA places 2 CA and 1 CL into Norfolk, TERR into Philippines
USSR places MIL into Sian, removes FTR from Odessa

Trade Agreements:
CW sets up Trade Agreement with France, sending 1 Oil
Germany sets up Trade Agreement with Italy, sending 2 RP and 2 Oil

Rats! Forgot these need an Option chosen. Next turn, I have to remember them.
[France sets up Trade Agreement with USSR, sending 1 RP]
[USA sets up Trade Agreement with France, sending 3 Oil]

Initiative:
Allies win the Initiative on a tie, 2-2 (no Axis Reroll)

Victory Totals
(I probably won't post this after every turn)
[image]local://upfiles/38062/2E535F3C5D48431DB78DA55BB9520A3C.jpg[/image]

Turn 2 N/D '39

Allies win the Initiative on a tie, 2-2 (no Axis Reroll)
Allies choose to move first in N/D '39
Axis Initiative +1

Impulse: 1
Weather: 3 (Rain in the Arctic, Fine everywhere else)

Now, the reason I chose to move first as the Allies instead of trying to get the Axis to lose another Initiative Point (or whatever you want to call it), is that the CW grabbed those Polish pilots and stuck them in a couple of LND with some satisfactory Tactical Factors. With 2 of the German HQs still in Poland, a massive effort to Ground Strike the Germans near France on the first impulse could very well end the threat this year. This, of course, was decided before knowing the weather, and the weather turned out to be magically good for that decision. If it works.

Also, this gives the CW an opportunity to do a little more fixing of the screwed up Naval Unit setup I made at the start of the game. That one I am still going to blame on my pneumonia (easy answer, eh?), but it needed to be repaired, and that could only be done in part last turn. Moving first allows the CW to bolster some of the weaker sea areas before Italy gets a chance to do anything about it.

As for the Axis decision not to reroll, that was based mostly on the fact that there was a chance the Allies would give them the first impulse, anyway, and that those HQs in Poland are going to need time to get into the fight.
-----
Now is the time for all good men . . . to complain about my incompetence! [:D] Patton, wasn't it?



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/22/2011 9:33:17 PM)

Taking a look at the map again, it was absolutely necessary for the Allies to move first. That French stack NE of the FTR has 13 Factors of defense. If Germany went first, it could get 39 Factors of offense into the 2 adjacent hexes . . . and that doesn't include Ground Support or Ground Strikes. If HQ-I von Bock uses the O-chit, that's a 6:1 Blitz attack without using any air power. There's a lonely HQ under that FTR that could attempt HQ Support, but to what end?

Therefore, the CW must succeed somewhere with Ground Strikes, and the French must put a sacrificial unit into that empty hex. Otherwise, France is 2-3 impulses away from utter destruction.

This is where I can never figure out what to do . . . should the French now retreat out of Belgium? Or should they move each of the 2 other full stacks NW a hex each? At that, should the Metz MIL be placed in the East Ardennes as a non-Blitzable sacrifice? Or is France just going to die and nothing to do about it?

[image]local://upfiles/38062/A0003C9EADBB460C8936042039A55187.jpg[/image]



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 3:56:40 AM)

Things were beginning to look grim for the CW as it finally unleashed its Ground Strikes on the Germany forces.

The targeted hexes, as seen in Post #228 were Antwerp, the hex SW of Antwerp, and the hex with HQ-I von Bock in it. Mainly due to a series of rolls that seemed to favor the number '11', all 3 bombers cleared through, though the CW traded one of its Hurricanes for a German FTR. This was a pretty good result overall for the CW, since they could only send escorts for 2 of the 3 missions, and Germany intercepted all 3 of them, without any success.

Free to drop their payloads on the enemy, the first LND missed von Bock by several miles, at least. The 2nd target, 2 ARM units in Antwerp, were apparently safely hidden away, since the LND targeting them couldn't seem to find them either. So, after clearing all 3 bombers, the CW was facing an 0 for 4 success rate, which soon became 0 for 5, as the first bomb dropped on the 3rd (and most important) target missed, too.

But finally, finally, finally, the bomber (lent to the CW by the Americans [;)] ) closed in on the last two targets in the hex and struck them hard!

That hex is absolutely vital to German expansion into France, no matter which direction the Germans wanted to go. The stack in that hex was going to be involved in any major offensive, and with only one unit available now (and the other 2 just taking up space), Germany is going to have to figure out something very special if it wants to get deep into France this winter.

Long live the RAF !!!

[image]local://upfiles/38062/CEECB81D48A54B5DBFCF6CB19AD9D595.jpg[/image]



michaelbaldur -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 4:11:03 AM)

where are the BEF ?????

you should have send them, so they could cover a hex. then the overall France stacks would have been better.

the only thing now is to retreat all units back in front of Paris.

France have 3 main objectives:

1. force Germany to spend offensives (both)
2. give Germany casualties
3. make sure Germany have to attack ALL France units. in hope of causalities and to remove any Vichy France land units.  

does objectives is important to help the allies later in the game. if Germany spend both itīs offensives it will be missing does in Russia. the casualties will also be missed on the Russian front.

and no Vichy land units. mean that more German / Italian units need to perform partisan duty. which also helps on the russian front.

so the main objective for the France is to make the campaign costly for the Germans.

I have seen campaigns so costly that the German player gave up.

you need the BEF in France. and a big English stack in Lille (with a engineer)makes that hex almost unbeatable 
 



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 2:43:53 PM)

Michael,

There are 3 reasons the BEF isn't in France.

1. I never use them correctly (they die quickly), so I sent the white print units to Gibraltar
2. I ran out of transports
3. Germany played aggressively, so this is only the 2nd turn and those TRS did not have time to get back to send Gort to France (with other units, also)

In my last game, the weather helped France hold out until M/J '40 with a strong defense. In this game, the weather helped the Axis mostly.

I am now at Land Movement for the Allies. I can check to see the German chances, and then decide if I need to retreat now or hold out another impulse or two. Then, I also need to decide if I am going to retreat the units from the Italian border to Toulouse or not. This abandons a lot of territory (and maybe even Naval Units) to the Italians, but it encourages Germany to not declare Vichy. Combined with a retreat to Paris, this might buy more time for the Allies. I don't really know how to play it.
-----
Edit: Because of the CBV issue I've mentioned, France has a number of units in its controlled minors. These maybe shouldn't be there yet (I have a hard time remembering all of the CBV rules), but they can help defend an incompletely conquered France, making it harder for a Close the Med strategy to work.

Given the situation, I am now actually leaning toward Vichy Declaration as the Axis.
-----
Edit: Due to errors on my part, this image is absolutely wrong. Sorry, all. The only French unit that is in this region is the 3-3 INF now that I've fixed my error. See the posts below for the details.
[image]local://upfiles/38062/DB01657124D247568013895A49B0CAF6.jpg[/image]



composer99 -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 3:46:26 PM)

The French city based volunteers are, if memory serves, Free French units, so they actually shouldn't come into play unless France is Vichied and their respective minors either go Free French or are reverted to Free French control.

Also, I erroneously said Toulouse went German-controlled when I meant Bordeaux upthread. My bad.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 4:01:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

The French city based volunteers are, if memory serves, Free French units, so they actually shouldn't come into play unless France is Vichied and their respective minors either go Free French or are reverted to Free French control.

Also, I erroneously said Toulouse went German-controlled when I meant Bordeaux upthread. My bad.

I'll look this up to double-check it, but if you are right, I can fix the problem.

I don't know if I've stated exactly what the CBV problem is yet, so I will now, so you can understand why they are on the map.

Steve has plans in place, but not yet implemented to start all CBV off in the Reserve Pools for each major power. That way they are free the first time they get "built", as per the rules. Right now, though, since Steve is working on other code at the moment, they begin the game in the Force Pools. That means they can be "randomly" selected as builds, costing BP. My solution was to add them in before that could be done, but I added them incorrectly.

In trying to correct the original problem, I may have created a secondary problem. This is not a bug, but related to the tools we use to seek out and destroy bugs. Completely my fault, and not something wrong in the program. If they are Free French only and shouldn't be there until after Vichy is declared, I'll figure out how to remove them from the map.

This is a good example of how confusing beta-testing can sometimes be. With all the rules that we are trying to make sure work correctly, we sometimes make errors like this. The bug that caused me to create this error is one with a known solution.

I'll add an update once I've discovered what I should do with them, now that I know I messed up.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 4:07:42 PM)

And here it is, from RAC 22.4.8:

[Clarification. The Free French city based volunteers are available to Free France if it exists. If Free France does
not exist (for any reason) but France itself exists after having been completely or incompletely conquered, then these
CBV units are available to France - May 11, 2007.]

So, I need to get rid of them until France is either conquered or Vichied. I'll figure out how to do it without damaging the integrity of the game.
-----
Edit: Done. It was a lot easier than I thought it would be. I love the tools Steve has given us to test this game. It makes our job so much easier. [&o]



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 5:09:31 PM)

I haven't set this in stone yet, and I can undo pretty much all of it, but this is what I think I would do to start the retreat toward Paris. Once again, I know the image is cluttered, but I wanted to show exactly what was in each French stack.

My theory is that this limits the number of units that can attack any particular stack. The GARR in the east Ardennes is sacrificial, but prevents the Germans from putting more factors into an attack against the stack in the west Ardennes. That stack had to be weakened in order to try to make other hexes as strong as possible.

The Maginot Line has been abandoned, and Metz might fall to Germany, but the only hexes that can be Blitzed are NW and SE of Lille, and because of the successful strike by the CW, neither can be attacked by an overwhelming force. If the Germans commit a lot of bombers, then there could be trouble, but then the Germans have to either reorganize them or fight without their help later on.

As I say, I haven't hit the End-of-Phase button yet on this one, so I'd like to hear what you think about this attempted retreat.
-----
Edit: I've also started moving units from Marseilles toward Toulouse, so that if the Germans do want to conquer France and try to close the Med, they'll have to pay for it.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/A118ADAFE92D4A46923679564CBF1EF1.jpg[/image]



composer99 -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 6:29:35 PM)

Germany gets fine weather on its first impulse, so if possible you want the Germans to make 0-1 attacks this impulse, then hope the weather turns sour.

To that end, I would:
- leave 1 GARR in Metz
- leave 2 units in Strasbourg
- leave the Metz MIL in the westernmost Ardennes hex and leave the other Ardennes hex empty (this is your sacrificial sop to the Germans as they can't breakthrough)
- move the units in Calais to Lille or otherwise behind the lines for redeployment elsewhere
- keep an anti-tank gun in the stack southeast of Lille - you may even want to move this whole stack one hex back as the MIL in the Ardennes and Lille will ZoC the hexes on the French border

As far as a BEF goes I would consider dropping them into Rouen to keep the Germans from getting around Paris easily.

For the rest of the winter, the French goal is to hold Paris and keep the Germans down to 0-1 attacks per impulse such that they can't execute a breakthrough, ideally under circumstances in which a bad roll will end the offensive for the turn.

One big concern I see here, though, is that the French only have 1 FTR and the Germans have lots of bombers, although this might not be an issue if the Germans have no useable fighters themselves.



Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 6:35:39 PM)

Sorry, but I do not like any of this [Aaron's proposal].

There is no need to abandon the Maginot line. Let the garrison units hold it. Your 4 garrison units in the Maginot line are invulnerable to attack and are tying up 5 German garrison units. Once you pull back, the units in your new line can be attacked at vastly better odds; or the Germans can simply advance and free up one of their units. Towards the end of the turn the Germans will be wanting to use every organized unit they have to either attack or to fill in gaps in their line that were created when units advanced after combat.

Sacrifice the militia unit - it costs the same as a garrison and comes back faster. See page 7 of tutorial #4 for a comparison of the different basic infantry types.

You should position units in the front line and the secondary line (to defend against blitz results). While it looks like the empty hex east of the fighter is safe, since the French ZOCs stop the Germans from moving into it, there are two dangers. If the Germans get a Blitz result on the 6-4 and 5-4, they can advance into the empty hex and blow a big hole in the line: 6 units attack and occupy 3 or possibly even 4 hexes. The second danger is that the Germans ground strike units in the rear (units being held in reserve?), rendering them immobile and useless for the defense of Paris. The empty hex stays empty simply because no units are available to move into it.

If you want another unit for the front line, take the 5-3 out of Calais. It is a much longer path to Paris for the Germans if they go down the coast.



Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 6:56:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Sorry, but I do not like any of this [Aaron's proposal].

There is no need to abandon the Maginot line. Let the garrison units hold it. Your 4 garrison units in the Maginot line are invulnerable to attack and are tying up 5 German garrison units. Once you pull back, the units in your new line can be attacked at vastly better odds; or the Germans can simply advance and free up one of their units. Towards the end of the turn the Germans will be wanting to use every organized unit they have to either attack or to fill in gaps in their line that were created when units advanced after combat.

Sacrifice the militia unit - it costs the same as a garrison and comes back faster. See page 7 of tutorial #4 for a comparison of the different basic infantry types.

You should position units in the front line and the secondary line (to defend against blitz results). While it looks like the empty hex east of the fighter is safe, since the French ZOCs stop the Germans from moving into it, there are two dangers. If the Germans get a Blitz result on the 6-4 and 5-4, they can advance into the empty hex and blow a big hole in the line: 6 units attack and occupy 3 or possibly even 4 hexes. The second danger is that the Germans ground strike units in the rear (units being held in reserve?), rendering them immobile and useless for the defense of Paris. The empty hex stays empty simply because no units are available to move into it.

If you want another unit for the front line, take the 5-3 out of Calais. It is a much longer path to Paris for the Germans if they go down the coast.

I'm going to redesign, using both your comments and composer's, too, but I do want to mention that the 8-4 MOT is the only unit in that German stack that can attack. The other 2 are disorganized. I'll redesign and repost in a few minutes.
-----
Edit: Part of what I did had to do with how far I could actually move units. Some just can't get to where they should be, but I'll see what I can do to make things work better.



Centuur -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 7:10:26 PM)

I don't like this type of retreat at all. It's winter, so the Germans are going to get into Rain and Storm soon (don't depend on the weather staying nice. If that is going to happen, you're toast anyhow). You're giving up the Maginot Line already, thus giving the Germans the ability to capture you're resources? How are you, as the French General, going to explain to you're politicians that you're giving up on the economic heartland of the country? [:-] And the shock of the French public will he huge... Not good for morale at all...
Also you're speaking of withdrawal from the Italian border? In winter? Are there any German units around there at this point? [:-]  If not, you need to provoke the Italians into attacking you're three units in the mountains and try to destroy them. In juni 1940 the French stopped the Italians at the border with only 8 division to defend there. Now, let the Spaghetti eaters try to cross those mountains!

Leave Belgium, don't sacrifice that nice GAR. It isn't going to help you at all in that position and it is far to good to fritter away. [:-]
You're goal should be to let the Germans pay for every hex [8D]. That GAR is going to get killed without any German losses at all.

Also, that MTN is doing nothing at the position it's in [&:]. Don't worry about the Italians at this point. They haven't got any punch to get at you. Only German units can do so in the Alps, since you're doubled on defense.
You're Italian defense should consist of three unit tops. I'll usually try to contain the Italians with only two (risky, but it might be enough). That's it. No reserves needed. That MTN should have been moved to the French/Belgium border last turn...

My defense would be: 3-1, 4-1, 4-1, 4-1 on the Maginot line (Yes, it's only one unit in Strassbourg, but you haven't got any one left at the moment, still it's got quite a good defense capability).
Than: 5-1, 3-3 Mil ; 4-4 MTN and a Gun (corner hex); 4-3 INF 5-5 MOT and the rest stays in the hexes where they are now. No units in Belgium any more, all in France on the border. You might consider leaving only 1 unit in the Dunkirk hex (since that hex can only be attacked from one other hex), thus giving you a reserve unit. No hex (except Strassbourg, which is far, far away from Paris) can be attacked from more than 2 hexes.

Paris only needs the HQ at this moment (and the AA gun). The other HQ is in a woods hex, so it can do without the gun (move it to the cornerposition with the MTN).

Now go to the French PM and tell him to summon Churchill to Paris and tell him in not to mistaken words that you'll expect the BEF and Gort to enter France NOW. Not later, but NOW. The CW is making a huge mistake, by not defending Lille for you. If the BEF is there, the French even can get a small reserve to prevent any German breakthroughs and start putting a double defense line in place.

Remember: Vive la France! Nobody is going to breakthrough you're front if it's closed and you're not having a hopeless defense at this moment. True: the German Blitzkrieg is going to be harsh, but hey: the French fighting spirit is there. No Gamelin in this army, please... You should close the front. Lille should have a lower number of factors (since the hex demands the use of the Assault table to the Germans) if it is defended by French forces, as opposed to the hexes SE of there, since that part is the highway to Paris.

Now, of course you will be attacked in the next Axis impulse. So what? As long as the Germans can't have very high odds against you're front, you'll going to see losses on the German side. Is he using an Offensive Chit on an HQ? Let him do so and start praying for some good rolls. You cannot prevent the fall of France, however the way things are now developing, you're making it a nice walk over for them.
Never, never should you allow a three hex attack to be made unto you're units, as long as you can prevent this from happening. Don't give into temptation and defaitism...

What is the position of the French High Command? They should be willing to defend all for "La Gloire de la France". The morale of the French soldier is the best of the world! No way I'm going to lose Paris: "Ca, c'est impossible, monsieur Reynaud". Or was it another French PM at that moment in Paris? I tend to lose track of French politics during the French Campaign.

We'll fight in the streets, on the beaches etc. etc. (wrong PM...). You'll getting the point of my pep talk...

So please: close you're frontline and make the Germans pay. If he attacks without using an O-Chit at this point, he'll lose at least one corps in his impulse.





Red Prince -> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) (11/23/2011 7:26:24 PM)

Two reminders:

1. Last game the CW made a "big mistake" in not reinforcing Gibraltar ASAP, so I did so in this game, which means . . .
2. My TRS are out of position to get the BEF into France. I could get the other 2 units, but not Gort, which means no BEF available. Sorry, but you gotta choose your battles. And given the adamant way people were surprised at my lack of units in Gibraltar, I chose to do that first. Chalk up another mistake on the blackboard, sir.

(Almost done repositioning, hopefully better)
-----
Edit: Going back to an earlier era in France, regarding Item #1 above, "You can't have your cake and eat it, too."



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