RE: Week 117 (Full Version)

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Schmart -> RE: Week 117 (8/17/2012 12:29:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I don't recall the real life OKH doubling down after Kursk and going into full Ride of the Valkyries mode...



I wonder if farfarer has also installed music blaring speakers on his panzers for these end runs...



M60A3TTS -> Leading into Week 118 (8/17/2012 5:51:34 AM)

Meetings were held in Kharkov by STAVKA and senior military leaders over the summer to determine where the Red Army could deliver a strategic blow to the Wehrmacht. As a goal for such an offensive, Stalin called for a direct effort aimed at the liberation of Moscow at the earliest opportunity. Marshal Zhukov was strongly opposed to such a plan, arguing that it would take the Red Army further away from its ultimate objective, Berlin. Then commander of the Kalinin Front, General-Lt. Rokossovsky proposed a compromise, an offensive that would send the Red Army westwards and force the Germans to abandon Moscow or risk the destruction of Army Group North. The timing of the offensive would be in the final weeks of summer when the fascists would least be expecting a major offensive.

After extensive discussions, Rokossovsky’s plan was approved by Stalin.

Operation Bagration would commence on September 16.



M60A3TTS -> Operation Bagration (8/19/2012 4:54:23 PM)

Here is the general situation. The German forces and their allies have twice attempted encircling moves this summer that have resulted in a significant weakening of their front line forces. Extensive fortified belts exist along rivers in the areas west of Kiev and extend to the Black Sea. German tank divisions are also refitting in the immediate area of Kiev. This indicates to us that the enemy expects the area south of Kiev to be the point through which the Red Army will make its main thrust come winter.

To the north, the swamp and wooded terrain in the Vitebsk-Minsk region is less useful to mechanized and tank formations and therefore has been fortified only along a narrow front behind the Berezina and Ulla Rivers. Over the past weeks, many of these fortifications have been overcome by elements of the Central and Western Fronts. Enemy units in this area are worn down by recent fighting.

We believe that the enemy is expecting the front lines to stabilize now with the summer campaign weather coming to a close in only a few short weeks. They would also expect the Red Army to take the rainy period as an opportunity to reinforce units in preparation for a winter campaign in the south. This provides a unique opportunity, as they now underestimate our ability to launch a short offensive campaign.

Operation Bagration will commence 16 September and involve the following commands: Central, Western, Southwestern and Steppe Fronts; in all a force of over 2.5 million men. This will be an offensive lasting four weeks.

The strategic objective of Bagration is the coast on the Gulf of Riga. If completely successful, it will break the German Army in half. Even if it is close to being successful, it will pose such a grave threat to the Germans that they will feel compelled to withdraw from much of the territory they occupy in the northwest.

The number of troops available on each front is as follows:

Central Front

741,654 men
12,803 guns
365 AFVs
1,495 aircraft

Western Front

625,598 men
10,470 guns
189 AFVs
2,064 aircraft

Southwestern Front

579,503 men
9,498 guns
3,301 AFVs
1,827 aircraft

Steppe Front

444,494 men
5,679 guns
2,877 AFVs
1,260 aircraft

6th Guards Army Kalinin Front

138,042 men
2,521 guns
47 AFVs

Total

2.5 million men
40,971 guns
6,779 AFVs
6,646 aircraft

In the execution of this plan, Western Front will advance in the western direction using the Daugava as the northern flank. Central Front will advance to capture Minsk and be on the left wing of Western Front. Steppe and Southwestern Fronts will exploit any gap found in the enemy defense to break into the clear terrain and race westwards. Currently these breakthrough fronts are recovering troops from previous operations near Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk so they will need 1-2 weeks to reach full strength.

Kalinin and Bryansk Fronts will be prepared to support Bagration with additional attacks. Long Range Air Command will assist in air resupply of breakthrough formations. STAVKA’s 10th Airborne Brigade will be available for airdrop as needed. NKPS units will be made available to repair damaged rail lines to support the advance. STAVKA will remain located at Mogilev during the operation.

During Bagration, ancillary operations will be undertaken by Leningrad and Northwestern Fronts. They will re-take ground given up by the fascists with all possible speed. 8th, 27th and 46th Armies of the Northwestern Front along with Kalinin Front will not be committed on this task, but will instead prepare to shift lines laterally in the western direction in order to facilitate the securing of the flanks as the main forces are committed. Voronezh Front will remain in place. Southern and North Caucasus Fronts will re-form defensive lines and prepare to support winter offensive operations. All southern mobile formations to include 3rd Shock, 57th and 65th Armies will support opportunities for limited attacks against Axis lines in the Kirovograd-Krivoi Rog sector while Bagration is underway in order to force the enemy to continuously fight on a broad front.

The operation starts something like this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0FbGuImTCE



M60A3TTS -> Week 118 Operation Bagration (8/19/2012 6:09:04 PM)

WEEK 118 - 9/16/43

Farfarer clearly detected the buildup of our units in the area and rushed panzer reserves into the area around Minsk. Attacks in the first week saw mechanized and tank forces of Steppe and Southwestern Fronts pass through Western Front and reach the Disna River. This severed the rail connection at Polotsk, one of five which provide supply to Army Group North. German infantry units in the area that felt the brunt of the attacks are in disarray. Progress in the Central Front area was not as successful as hoped. The activation of panzer reserves at Minsk resulted in our units reaching the outskirts of the city but unable to take it by direct assault or isolating it.

[image]http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/5171/bagrationt118.jpg[/image]


In the south, the Germans are giving up their territory gained in the last few weeks in order to free up mobile reserves.

German ready forces fall slightly below the 3 million mark.

Re-designated units this week included 12th Army of Central Front now 5th Guards Army and 33rd Army of Kalinin Front now 6th Guards Army.



bigbaba -> RE: Week 118 Operation Bagration (8/19/2012 11:28:15 PM)

amazing. such a ambitious plan and all that shortly after the heavy fighting around kiev!

your ooperartion has some kind of realistic backgeround. like the real red army you first hammerd the germans around kiev and then attack where is is not expecting a attack: against the AGC.

his front around druya looks realy weak. and you have a lot of mech., armor and cavalery troops there.



Peltonx -> RE: Week 118 Operation Bagration (8/21/2012 1:21:34 AM)

Great job M60.



M60A3TTS -> Week 119 (8/21/2012 2:28:33 PM)

WEEK 119 - 9/23/43

This week the fascists abandoned the cities of Yaroslavl, Ivanovo, and Vladimir. Our citizens wept with joy as the Red Army triumphantly marched in. Our enemy has withdrawn to form new defensive lines in the area between Moscow and Rybinsk.

Marshal Zhukov reported flanking strong enemy positions by advancing north of the Daugava with the combined forces of 1st Shock and 1st Guards Tank Armies. Enemy rail lines in the area were cut.

Airborne forces have assisted 5th Shock Army in the isolation of five enemy divisions.

In the south our armies having rested and refitted, have resumed attacks in the vicinity of Krivoi Rog.

2nd Tank Army was re-designated as 2nd Guards Tank Army.





M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 2:35:26 PM)

OOB
[image]http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/2044/oob119.jpg[/image]

Enemy withdrawals
[image]http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/7640/moscow119.jpg[/image]

Advances in the western direction
[image]http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/4443/119bagration.jpg[/image]

Southern area
[image]http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/1788/119krivoirog.jpg[/image]

General Bogdanov - 2 GTA
[image]http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/7829/1192ndgta.jpg[/image]



bigbaba -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 3:48:20 PM)

it must be real fun for you now to regain all that lost territory without a fight. espacialy the good defensive terrain NE of moscow can be a pain in the ... when you have to fight for it. and now you are 130 km away from cutting off the entire german AGN and parts of AGC!

and if the screenshot is taken after recon flights there is NOTHING! between your panzer spearheads and riga!

dawai dawai!



Walloc -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 4:20:26 PM)

Just note that both beachhead supply plus the fact that Helsinki is a permanent supply source. Has an effect on the supply part of the cut off effect.

Kind regards,

Rasmus



Flaviusx -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 4:21:50 PM)

The real fun begins when he reaches the Baltic coast. This is going to make the Curland pocket look like child's play.

I'll give Farfarer this much: he's crashing and burning in a most spectacular way. This game could be over before 1944 is out.




bigbaba -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 4:46:45 PM)

maybe that is a good example for a german player who do not know when it's enough and it's time to go to defensive modus. some kind of victory disease.

and even if the cut off troops east of riga get supply they are out of action when m60 goes for poland.



janh -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 9:02:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
The real fun begins when he reaches the Baltic coast. This is going to make the Curland pocket look like child's play.

I'll give Farfarer this much: he's crashing and burning in a most spectacular way. This game could be over before 1944 is out.


Yes, that's it! Most spectacular... I do understand a bit his motivation to keep the game dynamic and moving as long as possible, but if you don't want to end up like this, you have to assume a defensive stance at some point. Else, even if not as badly overexposed as he was here with this really vulnerable long flank between the northern and southern lines, the Soviet must get quicker to Berlin than with a conserved Wehrmacht and good fort belts. His huge pocket a few turns back looked like a close thing, and if successful, would have put you back by a couple of months. But it was a "win all or loose everything" move. Actually not even a win all, a win a little bit or loose plenty...

Another thing I derive as lesson from this AAR is... never to underestimate the manpower dispersed in the south. Any axis player knowing that this game is about disabling the Red Army must take measures to secure the area up to Kursk and Stalinogorsk or better even Rostov in 41. There is more manpower there and hence, more damage to the Red Army than by hurting Moscow, though that's a lot there, too. Leningrad in comparison is just flank security and getting the Finns into play, but it usually is the center or south were the war is decided.



Seminole -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 9:18:15 PM)

Perhaps MT will share his GIS work with the community so we can get a picture of the manpower centers on the map. My understanding is that in reality the population centers were around Leningrad and the Moscow-Gorki area.



Flaviusx -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 9:34:21 PM)

There is a lot of manpower down south. The problem: it's not defensible. It's very hard to stop the Axis much further west than Voronezh/Rostov, and the Donbas in particular -- very rich in both manpower and factories -- is well within reach of a 17 turn clear weather drive.

And if it doesn't go in 1941, then it goes in 1942.

Moscow doesn't have quite as much manpower as this area, but it is far more defensible, if, and this is the big caveat, you can ride out 1941. It can be rushed in 1941 when the Red Army hasn't quite jelled. Truth is, in 1941, nothing much stops the Wehrmacht save the weather and the distance from rails.

Note: all this is notwithstanding the very bizarre results of this particular game. It's been highly eccentric almost from the getgo, and is getting weirder all the time.




Peltonx -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 10:56:49 PM)

Fact is the south is the most important target for GHC, then Leningrad then Moscow.

Defending the south is not possible for SHC, Leningrad is a mybee and Moscow can be held now in most cases because of new tweats to rail heads, logistics patchs ect. In 2 of 3 of my 1.06.14 games Moscow will hold.

So the myth and fairtale Moscow can't be held is just plan BS. [:-]

In past AAR's others and myself have given the manpower numbers.

The south can be rolled easly, mostly held during blizzard and easly retaken during 42 for a double hit to manpower.

If the GHC cant take Leningrad and the Donets in 41 your done game set match. If you take Moscow plus Leningrad and Donets then SHC is most likely toast.

If GHC can take Leningrad and Donets, but SHc holds Moscow its a draw for 41



Flaviusx -> RE: Week 119 (8/21/2012 11:06:42 PM)

Moscow is a 50/50 proposition, imo, Pelton. It will depend in large part on what happens with Leningrad and how quickly PG4 transfers to AGC. If Leningrad is drawn out, chances are good Moscow holds. It needs to fall by around turn 13 or so to give you enough time to transfer the panzer group over and get some licks in.

So, yes, Moscow can be held, but it is by no means a sure thing.




Peltonx -> RE: Week 119 (8/22/2012 9:30:13 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Moscow is a 50/50 proposition, imo, Pelton. It will depend in large part on what happens with Leningrad and how quickly PG4 transfers to AGC. If Leningrad is drawn out, chances are good Moscow holds. It needs to fall by around turn 13 or so to give you enough time to transfer the panzer group over and get some licks in.

So, yes, Moscow can be held, but it is by no means a sure thing.




Before last few patchs and much better russian tactics over-all for player base, it was toast most games.

Now with just a little luck its more then likely going to hold.

Looks like biggest reason is over all russian loses are allot lower then in the past. Its allot easyer to with draw east as "muling has been nerfed". "Muling is still possible, but on a much smaller scale. No more unlimited MP's for 2 full PG's as in the past.

Its possible to chain and "mule" a single Corp per PG, which is much easyer for SHC to control. As long as the SHC avoids any major pockets the first 7 turns hes more then likely going to hold Moscow with just alittle luck.

The new rule set has no effect on 42 so I think that the game is better over all and much more balanced.

Not sure a manpower tweat is needed when its not that hard for SHC to have 5 million men by blizzard non-random games and 6 million with random.

I also dont think most SHC players have much of an idea what to do come 43.

More balancing might be needed late war, but without allot of 1.06.13+ AAR's it will be a while before there is enough data.

My past thoughts of a small SHC manpower bump in 1942 are negitive now that I have played enough 41 games. The last few patchs have really nerfed any exploits of the logistics system. A few things can be milked here and there but not enough to effect things as iin the past.



janh -> RE: Week 119 (8/22/2012 11:12:21 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Moscow is a 50/50 proposition, imo, Pelton. It will depend in large part on what happens with Leningrad and how quickly PG4 transfers to AGC. If Leningrad is drawn out, chances are good Moscow holds. It needs to fall by around turn 13 or so to give you enough time to transfer the panzer group over and get some licks in.

So, yes, Moscow can be held, but it is by no means a sure thing.


It seem like the recent changes have indeed slowed Axis a bit and made a stand for Moscow possible. I am not sure about 50:50 yet, but it certainly is being held more often recently. That's a good thing, it shouldn't be a sure thing either way, as it obviously wasn't as well in the past, besides making the game more exiting, too.

Maybe this is for the wrong reasons, though, since even to hold it a Soviet player needs to be damned near perfect in his play, not waste any assets without thinking twice and also avoid any wasteful counterattacks and losses. Quite in contrast to the past, where the Soviets assaulted the Germans in many a futile battle (or not so futile, taking into account that the lost time and the attrition of the Germans helped to safe Moscow, stop them just at Rostov). I imagine the Soviet player here should have the means to do the same, and still not forfeit the chance to hold Moscow. It would make life for the Germans much harder, though, if then a Soviet player would also employ hindsight and avoid useless bloodshed. At the very least the blizzard combat penalties ought to be done away with in that case, but I think that combination is really the way to go.








Flaviusx -> RE: Week 119 (8/22/2012 11:49:20 AM)

Pelton, as long as rails can be pushed past Smolensk by late August and you have 3 panzer groups available for the job, Moscow remains very doable. It's simply hard to deal with a full month or more of clear weather operations and that kind of a hammer. Nothing has changed here. The key remains the having that third group available -- and thus Leningrad gone.




Seminole -> RE: Week 119 (8/22/2012 5:32:00 PM)

quote:

I also dont think most SHC players have much of an idea what to do come 43.


It's hard to learn when folks throw in the towel after First Winter (either side).



Peltonx -> RE: Week 119 (8/23/2012 12:50:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Pelton, as long as rails can be pushed past Smolensk by late August and you have 3 panzer groups available for the job, Moscow remains very doable. It's simply hard to deal with a full month or more of clear weather operations and that kind of a hammer. Nothing has changed here. The key remains the having that third group available -- and thus Leningrad gone.




It will fall in 42, so I am still leaning for a bump in manpower for SHC in 42

I like to see a nerf to SHC cav. Very few SHC have figured out what kind of a gift they have with cav, thank the game gods [;)]

Semi has almost figured it out [:-]



bigbaba -> RE: Week 119 (8/23/2012 12:25:44 PM)

updates, more updates!

i realy want to know if the tanks of the 1st guards tank army are in riga yet!

and send a bottle of baltic sea water to kremel as proof.:)



M60A3TTS -> Week 120 (8/23/2012 11:39:43 PM)

WEEK 120 - 9/30/43

The Germans commit their panzer reserves to throw 1st Guards Tank and 1st Shock Armies back across the Daugava. Realizing that the enemy has pulled panzer reserves from Minsk, General Purkaev launches a direct assault against the city with the support of over 9,000 guns. 23rd Guards Rifle Corps of Lelyushenko's 5th Guards Army storms in and takes back the capital of Belorussia. A general advance in the area continues westward approximately 30 miles.

[image]http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1841/t120minsk.jpg[/image]

[image]http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/3083/week120germancounter.jpg[/image]


In the area around Moscow, the advance westward continues towards the city.

[image]http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/4742/moscowt110.jpg[/image]

In the south, minor advances forward towards Krivoi Rog.

65th Army is re-designated 7th Guards Army
5th Army is re-designated 8th Guards Army
6th Army is re-designated 9th Guards Army

[image]http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/3969/789ga.jpg[/image]



A game -> RE: Week 119 (8/24/2012 5:16:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

I like to see a nerf to SHC cav. Very few SHC have figured out what kind of a gift they have with cav, thank the game gods [;)]

Semi has almost figured it out [:-]


Agreed, as Seminoles opponent in his current game I have been on the receiving end of Soviet cav and they are amazingly effective when used properly, I think they could use a slight reduction in movement capability as they really are just an infantry unit. At the moment they behave alot more like a mechanized unit than the real soviet "mech infantry".

And of course Cav Corps in the Blizzard are just heinous, but this is probably more to do with the controversial 1st winter, "lets balance the over the top Axis summer campaign" issue...



Seminole -> RE: Week 119 (8/24/2012 7:40:47 AM)

quote:

I think they could use a slight reduction in movement capability as they really are just an infantry unit.


Riding a pony is better than marching on your own feet.
Max MP is 22, so they can at best cover 7 hexes during the blizzard (in friendly terrain). Factor in enemy terrain cost (most likely +2MP if morale is 41-55, but it is possible for a guards unit to be at only +1MP in late FW), and movement is more like 4-5 hexes, and that isn't counting any MP used for attacks.
50 miles isn't an exceptional distance to cover on horseback in a week, at least Nathan Bedford Forrest wouldn't think so... [8D]



M60A3TTS -> Week 121 (8/24/2012 11:28:47 PM)

WEEK 121 - 10/7/43

The final week before the weather turns.

Front commands are re-named to reflect the new geographic realities.

[image]http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/6602/week121oob.jpg[/image]

Our advance to Moscow continues as lead elements are now 20 miles from the city. The fascists clearly have no intent of leaving just yet.

[image]http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/3194/t121moscow.jpg[/image]

In the center, the Red Army is within 40 miles of Vilnius.

[image]http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/7739/t121center.jpg[/image]

In the south, Krivoi Rog is taken.

[image]http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/8490/t121south.jpg[/image]

16th Army of North Caucasus Front is re-designated 10th Guards Army
26th Army of Belorussian Front is re-designated 11th Guards Army

[image]http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6640/t12110and11gds.jpg[/image]



hfarrish -> RE: Week 119 (8/25/2012 1:49:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole

quote:

I think they could use a slight reduction in movement capability as they really are just an infantry unit.


Riding a pony is better than marching on your own feet.
Max MP is 22, so they can at best cover 7 hexes during the blizzard (in friendly terrain). Factor in enemy terrain cost (most likely +2MP if morale is 41-55, but it is possible for a guards unit to be at only +1MP in late FW), and movement is more like 4-5 hexes, and that isn't counting any MP used for attacks.
50 miles isn't an exceptional distance to cover on horseback in a week, at least Nathan Bedford Forrest wouldn't think so... [8D]



Agreed - while I think Cav is probably OP relative to Tank or Mech Corps, the idea that it is an amazing wonderweapon is strange to me. At best, you get 22 MPs. As long as your opponent is able to maintain a reasonably solid line in blizzard, there is no way you are going to have enough Cav Corps and enough MPs (even if miraculously they all get to 22 MPs) to wreck the German army with Cav Corps. Are they nice? Sure...and against an inexperienced German I suppose they could do a fair amount of damage...but against someone who knows what they are doing? Not really.



hfarrish -> RE: Week 121 (8/25/2012 1:51:19 AM)


Interesting that you have a 7M man army now - as I recall that's about where it was pre-Farfarer's great '42 offensive. What is your rate of growth?



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 121 (8/25/2012 2:14:59 AM)

Actually I peaked at 8.4 million vs. 4.2 million German on turn 53, 6/18/42. So we're each about 1.1-1.2 million less now. Obviously not good for the Germans.



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