RE: Wild Sheep Chase

RE: Wild Sheep Chase (Full Version)

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obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (2/28/2014 9:55:57 AM)
The Allied fleet is moving North again. These Annes are a god sacrificial early warning system. Much better than search. Also this tells me quite a few CV/CVEs are not here now that were last time! [:)] This CAP is much more manageable. If they keep heading North, I'll get things ready. I may not pull the trigger, but it certainly seems like a good time to try. [image]local://upfiles/37283/DE99F5590952416A98379A8AF19AFA1D.jpg[/image]

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (2/28/2014 9:58:25 AM)
The Allies DA again at Gunzan!!! Arrgggg. One more day and forts would have been at level 2. After the turn they went back to level 1. not a bad result though. We lost around 3k casualties, but at the price of 1500 Allied casualties and 255 vehicles destroyed, 700+ disabled!!! [X(] Makes me think he set the tanks to go it alone, but they only a got a 1:4, and this should set them back a bit! [:)] [image]local://upfiles/37283/2C3A4BB5CA694412A96CCA7ADD27345E.jpg[/image]

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (2/28/2014 3:48:10 PM)
18 June 1945 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ KOREA: No 4E runs today, but the Allies try a surprise DA, most likely with just armored units as the troop losses are low and the vehicle losses through the roof! This was good, as even if those are just the tanks units, it likely means everything has to wait to try again for a good few days. I have been wrong before though. STRAT BOMBING: Nothing today. HOME ISLANDS: Sweeps hitting Kagoshima down 36 japanese planes for the loss of ~30 P-47D. Not bad at all. These groups will be in Nagasaki next turn recouping, and all groups at Kumamoto wil also move back in case the N version comes out to play. Tokyo HI is now making supply at a generous 2200/day! This and Osaka's 1400/day will give us a little boost to hopefully get things in the final viable month of the war for a fully active defense of the Home Islands. The Allied fleets are moving, most likely adding supply and troops to Korea. The CAP is a paltry 682 planes!!! [:D]That is significantly less than recent forays up here. Those pilots are good now after shooting down 2,000 or so Japanese planes, so it will not be easy to break through, especially considering the KB pilots are not all as strong as in recent attacks. This may not be the moment for the final battle If I can get the 4 repairing CVs out and ready and have all LBA updated and set, in about a month things might be better. Of course some new Allied CVs and repaired ones might be back too. CHINA: The Allied tanks beat our troops to the plus 3 territory, but roadblocks are aiming to go up just behind that. I hope there is enough to hold. Looks like this is not the full force, but recon has been wrong before. The mostly Chinese GODZILLA STACK takes out Henyang. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 18, 45 - MORNING -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Kagoshima , at 102,60 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid detected at 15 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 4 minutes Japanese aircraft J2M5 Jack x 27 Ki-84r Frank x 58 Allied aircraft P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 23 Japanese aircraft losses J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed Allied aircraft losses P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 5 destroyed Aircraft Attacking: 8 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Kagoshima , at 102,60 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 12 minutes Japanese aircraft J2M5 Jack x 18 Ki-84r Frank x 49 Allied aircraft P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 21 Japanese aircraft losses J2M5 Jack: 2 destroyed Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed Allied aircraft losses P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed Aircraft Attacking: 12 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Kagoshima , at 102,60 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 4 minutes Japanese aircraft J2M5 Jack x 10 Ki-84r Frank x 30 Allied aircraft P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 22 Japanese aircraft losses J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed Allied aircraft losses P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed Aircraft Attacking: 16 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Kagoshima , at 102,60 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 36,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 12 minutes Japanese aircraft J2M5 Jack x 5 Ki-84r Frank x 20 Allied aircraft P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 23 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed Aircraft Attacking: 11 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on TF, near Nago at 93,61 Weather in hex: Clear sky Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 23 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-30 Ann x 4 Allied aircraft ------------------------- CAP is 'only' 682 planes! Corsair II x 20 Corsair IV x 108 Seafire IIC x 1 Seafire L.III x 23 F4U-1A Corsair x 159 F4U-1D Corsair x 371 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-30 Ann: 2 destroyed No Allied losses -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 18, 45 - GROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Masan (102,54) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 67612 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2642 Defending force 121135 troops, 1663 guns, 407 vehicles, Assault Value = 4130 Japanese ground losses: 19 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 112129 troops, 1839 guns, 4327 vehicles, Assault Value = 4879 Defending force 211398 troops, 2675 guns, 1246 vehicles, Assault Value = 7040 Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 0 Allied adjusted assault: 1065 Japanese adjusted defense: 4936 [8D] Allied assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 0) Combat modifiers Defender: leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 3129 casualties reported Squads: 46 destroyed, 310 disabled Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 31 disabled Engineers: 2 destroyed, 19 disabled Guns lost 54 (6 destroyed, 48 disabled) Allied ground losses: 1546 casualties reported Squads: 6 destroyed, 100 disabled Non Combat: 102 destroyed, 379 disabled Engineers: 2 destroyed, 14 disabled Guns lost 136 (31 destroyed, 105 disabled) Vehicles lost 983 (229 destroyed, 754 disabled) [X(] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Hengyang (80,53) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 379473 troops, 2179 guns, 287 vehicles, Assault Value = 13696 [X(][X(][X(] Defending force 19000 troops, 146 guns, 193 vehicles, Assault Value = 328 Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3 Allied adjusted assault: 7403 Japanese adjusted defense: 38 Allied assault odds: 194 to 1 (fort level 3) Allied forces CAPTURE Hengyang !!! Combat modifiers Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), supply(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 6428 casualties reported Squads: 373 destroyed, 50 disabled Non Combat: 525 destroyed, 68 disabled Engineers: 38 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 127 (83 destroyed, 44 disabled) Vehicles lost 133 (133 destroyed, 0 disabled) Units retreated 17 Units destroyed 3 Allied ground losses: 2735 casualties reported Squads: 15 destroyed, 439 disabled Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 34 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled Guns lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled) Defeated Japanese Units Retreating! Assaulting units: 85th Chinese Corps 84th Chinese Corps 7th Chinese Corps 23rd Chinese Corps 16th Chindit Brigade 65th Chinese Corps 18th Chinese Corps 62nd Chinese Corps 56th Chinese Corps 40th Chinese Corps 21st Chinese Corps 3rd New Chinese Corps 73rd Chinese Corps 11th (East African) Division 64th Chinese Corps 8th Chinese Corps 11th Chinese Corps 20th Chinese Corps 1st Chinese Corps 25th Chinese Corps 52nd Chinese Corps 46th Chinese Corps 6th New Chinese Corps 71st Chinese Corps 53rd Chinese Corps 96th Chinese Corps 55th Chinese Corps 13th Chinese Corps 150th RAC Regiment 1st Prov Chinese Corps 15th Chinese Corps 26th Chinese Corps 63rd Chinese Corps 19th Chinese Corps 43rd Chinese Corps 81st (West African) Division 2nd Chinese Corps 4th Chinese Corps 27th Chinese Corps 30th Chinese Corps 14th Chinese Corps 49th Chinese Corps 10th Chinese Corps 83rd Chinese Corps 70th Chinese Corps 68th Chinese Corps 66th Chinese Corps Corps 2nd Prov Chinese Corps 3rd War Area 225 Group RAF 6th Group Army 33rd Group Army XV Corps RIASC Base Force 27th Group Army I/14th Army RIASC Base Force Z' Force 41st USN Naval Construction Battalion 20th Group Army 43rd USN Naval Construction Battalion 23rd Group Army 22nd Group Army 17th Chinese Base Force 10th Group Army 29th Group Army 30th Group Army 12th Group Army 17th Group Army 36th Group Army 243 Wing 39th Group Army 1st Group Army Central Reserve Jingcha War Area 2nd War Area 26th Group Army 4th Group Army 7th Group Army 37th Group Army 11th Group Army 24th Group Army 1st War Area 114th RN Base Force 7th War Area 13th Group Army 345 Wing 35th Group Army 31st Group Army Lusu War Area 120th RAF Base Force 8th Group Army 9th Group Army 18th Group Army 7th Construction Regiment 5th War Area IV Corps RIASC Base Force 1883rd Engineer Aviation Battalion 858th Engineer Aviation Battalion 19th Group Army 16th Group Army 3209th RAF SCU Base Force 113th RN Base Force 14th Group Army 18th Chinese Base Force 25th Group Army 9th War Area Red Chinese Army 3rd Group Army 5th Group Army CCAHQ 2nd Group Army 126th RAF Base Force 6th War Area 848th Engineer Aviation Battalion Defending units: 5th Garrison Unit 35th Ind.Mixed Brigade 4th Ind.Mixed Regiment 8th RGC Route Brigade 6th Ind.Infantry Brigade 5th NCPC Infantry Brigade 11th RGC Temp./A Division 53rd Field AA Battalion 55th Construction Battalion 21st Air Defense AA Battalion 35th Army 6th Shipping Engineer Regiment 19th JNAF AF Unit 70th JAAF AF Bn 7th Area Army 14th Naval Construction Battalion 29th Army 17th Army 14th JAAF AF Bn 2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Bn /1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reinforcements: 293rd Shinbu-tai arrives at Tokyo 294th Shinbu-tai arrives at Tokyo 59th Army arrives at Hiroshima/Kure Tokai JNAF Base Force arrives at Nagoya Losses: Ships Sunk: APA Harry Lee is reported to have been sunk near Amami Oshima on Apr 05, 1945 xAK Sea Barb is reported to have been sunk near Saipan on Oct 08, 1944 Previous report of sinking of SST Nautilus incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ [image]local://upfiles/37283/472D3622ADC44BE2BC6140D8C0340E32.jpg[/image] ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Here is a list of the CV/CVL/CVE groups on the Allied fleet flying CAP right now. This is 20 ships total, but there may be more if he's not flying CAP from them all. A pretty decent list though! CV - USS Hancock - VF-7 CV - USS Essex - VF-9 CV - unkonwn - VF-11 (Hornet II group - some skandi named CV) CV - USS Randolph - VBF-12 CV - unknown - VF-14 (Wasp II group - another norse god name) CV - USS Bennington - VBF-82 CV - USS Bonhomme Richard - VF-83 CV - HMS Implacable - No.801 Sqn FAA CV - HMS Formidable - No.888 Sqn FAA CV - HMS Indomitable - No.800 Sqn FAA and No.880 Sqn FAA CVL - USS Belleau Wood- VF-24 CVL - USS Monterey - VF-30 CVL - USS Bataan - VF-50 CVL - HMS Pioneer - No.1835 Sqn FAA CVE - HMS Tracker - No.1842 Sqn FAA CVE - USS Kadashan Bay - VCF-20 CVE - HMS Pursuer - No.723 Sqn FAA CVE - HMS Attacker - No.879 Sqn FAA CVE - HMS Shah - No.851 Sqn-FF FAA ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (2/28/2014 4:05:57 PM)
Re the Gunzan attack. You didn't include the LCU list, but late-war Allied units are very truck-heavy, so if any of the LCUs were IDs it's a good bet a lot of those losses are trucks. I wish the CR split out AFVs from other motorized, but it doesn't. It seems unlikely that most of those numbers were actual tanks. The late-war models are pretty robust.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (2/28/2014 4:26:15 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 Re the Gunzan attack. You didn't include the LCU list, but late-war Allied units are very truck-heavy, so if any of the LCUs were IDs it's a good bet a lot of those losses are trucks. I wish the CR split out AFVs from other motorized, but it doesn't. It seems unlikely that most of those numbers were actual tanks. The late-war models are pretty robust. There are plenty of divisions there (look back a few posts for the complete list if curious), but the units attacking are almost surely just the armor based on the results. Those units probably have a lot of motorized support as well, so it could be all trucks for all I know. Whatever it is, it's almost a 1,000 of them, which seems like it'll have an adverse affect on those units and keep them from attacking for a little while at least.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/1/2014 3:23:37 PM)
19 - 20 June 1945 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ KOREA: Some shifts here, as the forts are now built to 2, and so I'll move some units back between Masan and Gunzen in support of both in a 4 day move. Also this hex is good for fixing up shattered units and getting supply to some as well. They of course draw in the field but won't in base. Amazing that I'm still cruising through commanders and finding some not so good ones, and replacing them with stellar ones. I wish this stack had supply, because the troops are very experienced now, and a few in articular are 80+ with some of the best generals on the map. How do the IJA have so many good generals anyway? STRAT BOMBING: Bye Bye NF! A big raid takes out the entire 40 plane factory for the Irvings. I have some in pool, and a good number of other types that should be fine for 2-3 months. The A6M NF are plentiful and still actively producing, and there a bunch of the Frances NF as well, which is surprisingly effective. The Nick Id NF finally got some Ha-31 engines and has been producing for the past 3 months, so a few units have that one now too. It has not yet been tested in combat, but will probably be as poor as the Dinah. The Randy Ic is due to produce in about 10 days, but will probably be torched before it gets going unfortunately. Another one I'd just like to try out, so fingers crossed. HOME ISLANDS: Getting some supply moving now. That's good. CHINA: The Allied armor reaches our 1k AV army in a +2 rough hex. Hopefully this is not the whole meal deal that ransacked Changsha. I put some bombers on to disrupt if they go immediately and blind without a bombardment. Fingers crossed. Just gotta hold one day here really. Another 2k AV two days away, and something of a surprise coming up the back roads as well! [;)] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 19, 45 - NIGHT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59 Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 24 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M5d-S Zero x 1 Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 8 Allied aircraft B-29-25 Superfort x 25 B-29B Superfort x 39 No Japanese losses No Allied losses J1N1-Sa Irving factory hits 10 Aircraft Attacking: 6 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 8000 feet * City Attack: 18 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59 Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 23 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M5d-S Zero x 4 Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 8 Allied aircraft B-29-25 Superfort x 13 B-29B Superfort x 6 Japanese aircraft losses A6M5d-S Zero: 1 destroyed Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged Aircraft Attacking: 6 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 8000 feet * City Attack: 18 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night Air attack on Sian , at 83,41 Weather in hex: Heavy cloud Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 22 minutes Allied aircraft B-29-1 Superfort x 18 No Allied losses Light Industry hits 18 Aircraft Attacking: 6 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet * City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 19, 45 - AFTERNOON -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on 12th Division, at 102,52 (Gunzan) Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 34 minutes Allied aircraft PB4Y-2 Privateer x 31 Allied aircraft losses PB4Y-2 Privateer: 1 damaged Japanese ground losses: 246 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled Engineers: 4 destroyed, 6 disabled Aircraft Attacking: 3 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on 3rd Special Base Force, at 102,52 (Gunzan) Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 26 minutes Allied aircraft Liberator B.VI x 12 Liberator GR.VI x 4 B-17E Fortress x 3 B-24D1 Liberator x 4 B-24J Liberator x 69 PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15 Allied aircraft losses Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged Liberator GR.VI: 1 damaged B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged Japanese ground losses: 895 casualties reported Squads: 2 destroyed, 47 disabled Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 51 disabled Engineers: 2 destroyed, 6 disabled Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled) Aircraft Attacking: 7 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 9000 feet Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 19, 45 - GROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Masan (102,54) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 67620 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2642 Defending force 95711 troops, 1417 guns, 365 vehicles, Assault Value = 3221 Japanese ground losses: 189 casualties reported Squads: 4 destroyed, 9 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled) Assaulting units: Americal Infantry Division 33rd Infantry Division 6th Marine Division 2nd Marine Division 81st Infantry Division 34th Combat Engineer Regiment 3rd Marine Division XXIV US Corps 10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion 147th Field Artillery Regiment X US Corps 4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion 12th USMC Field Artillery Battalion 251st Field Artillery Battalion Tenth US Army 8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion I US Corps 3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion V US Amphib Corps 1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion 148th Field Artillery Battalion Defending units: 122nd Division 111th Division 68th Brigade 140th Infantry Regiment 96th Division 120th Division 150th Division 127th Division 78th Infantry Regiment 30th Infantry Regiment 16th Garrison Unit 160th Division 87th Infantry Regiment 94th Division 77th Infantry Regiment 109th Division 105th Ind.Mixed Brigade Yosu Fortress 14th Area Army 28th Mountain Gun Regiment 6th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion 12th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion 2nd Mortar Regiment Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment 5th Medium Field Artillery Regiment 71st Mountain Gun Regiment 7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion 22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment 26th Field Artillery Regiment 15th Medium Field Artillery Regiment 31st RF Gun Battalion 11th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion 30th RF Gun Battalion 2nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment 13th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion 17th Mortar Battalion 34th Army 29th RF Gun Battalion 10th Mortar Battalion -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 20, 45 - GROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 3532 troops, 291 guns, 262 vehicles, Assault Value = 4611 Defending force 242879 troops, 3029 guns, 1323 vehicles, Assault Value = 7883 Japanese ground losses: 412 casualties reported Squads: 10 destroyed, 19 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 8 (4 destroyed, 4 disabled) Allied ground losses: Guns lost 29 (10 destroyed, 19 disabled) Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reinforcements: These flight schools are some BIG fighter groups! 81 and 65 planes. Very useful. Ki-83 are now repairing and the best pilots being transferred. About a week until both are active, and this will leave about 130-40 Ki-83 in the pools to use for the next 50 days or so. Akeno Flght.Schl. arrives at Tokyo Hitachi Flght.Schl. arrives at Nagasaki/Sasebo 185th Shinbu-tai arrives at Matsuyama 186th Shinbu-tai arrives at Matsuyama Losses: none. Ships Sunk: DD Thompson is reported to have been sunk near Nagasaki/Sasebo on May 15, 1945 Previous report of sinking of CVE Kadashan Bay incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of CA Tuscaloosa incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of SS Growler incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ [image]local://upfiles/37283/9D71596F3CEF45AF82CBBADE88A90688.jpg[/image] ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Tokyo and Osaka going all out for a few days! ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Capt. Harlock -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/1/2014 4:04:11 PM)
quote: DD Thompson is reported to have been sunk near Nagasaki/Sasebo on May 15, 1945 Previous report of sinking of CVE Kadashan Bay incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of CA Tuscaloosa incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of SS Growler incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service For once the resurrections far outweigh the reported deaths. [;)]

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/1/2014 4:16:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock quote: DD Thompson is reported to have been sunk near Nagasaki/Sasebo on May 15, 1945 Previous report of sinking of CVE Kadashan Bay incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of CA Tuscaloosa incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of SS Growler incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service For once the resurrections far outweigh the reported deaths. [;)] Pretty standard for me. Often the resurrections are actually just mistaken identity, and another ship goes on the list but not in the CR. Love the mystery of it all, and looking forward now to the moment of 'truth' at the end, soon, when I'll really know more about what happened.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/1/2014 8:49:38 PM)
21 June 1945 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ KOREA: Just another bombardment here. The Allies land something; supply or reinforcements, and from night search and naval movement it looks like it was well protected by the fleet. The CVs are a few hexes off of Moppo and holding. They haven't hit any of the shipping around Fusan or Nagasaki, so they must have a restricted strike range. Flirting with danger again. I could have hit with 5 CVs this turn, but I'll wait for a better opportunity later, hopefully with more. The Moppo airfield is in full operation now. About 600 fighters sitting there. We'll see what they do to us tomorrow. STRAT BOMBING: More Frank factories burned up, and a small Sam factory as well, at Gifu. A good NF contingent showed up, downing around 5-7 B-29s, but it's just not enough anymore to stop the bleeding. He's also stepping up the schedule, as they've been active almost every other day. HOME ISLANDS: No day sweeps here, but with 600 fighters in Moppo, I can expect some soon, at close range. CHINA: Things worked well here this turn. The Peggys and Graces hit the Allied forward tank army, but the damage was light and it wasn't really needed as they bombarded anyway. Looks like most of them, around 1650AV. If they DA tomorrow it'll be interesting. Tanks are moving behind and will enter the hex to close it in two turns if no counter is attempted. What happens if both move at the same time? Who goes first? Either way it could be tight for the Allies as I'll own the hex behind as well, and with another 800 AV of a tank division and a full infantry division in +3 territory. Maybe I've just trapped a small Allied army? Not sure I can kill it off if I have, as those tanks will be tough, especially if they do move back to the +3, but it's fun anyway! [8D] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 21, 45 - NIGHT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night Air attack on Gifu , at 110,59 Weather in hex: Heavy cloud Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 12 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M5d-S Zero x 5 J1N1-S Irving x 11 J1N1-Sa Irving x 6 Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 19 Allied aircraft B-29-25 Superfort x 40 B-29B Superfort x 7 Japanese aircraft losses J1N1-S Irving: 3 destroyed Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 2 destroyed Allied aircraft losses B-29-25 Superfort: 9 damaged B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged Ki-84r Frank factory hits 2 A7M2 Sam factory hits 4 Aircraft Attacking: 3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet * City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 21, 45 - MORNING -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on 17th Motorised Division, at 88,55 , near Chuhsien Weather in hex: Heavy cloud Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 2 minutes Japanese aircraft B7A2 Grace x 33 Japanese aircraft losses B7A2 Grace: 6 damaged B7A2 Grace: 3 destroyed by flak Allied ground losses: 62 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Aircraft Attacking: 14 x B7A2 Grace releasing from 3000' Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on 255th Indian Tank Brigade, at 88,55 , near Chuhsien Weather in hex: Heavy cloud Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 5 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-67-Ib Peggy x 3 Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 29 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-67-Ib Peggy: 2 damaged Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 6 damaged Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 1 destroyed by flak Allied ground losses: 23 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Aircraft Attacking: 19 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 6000 feet * Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on 18th Cavalry Regiment, at 88,55 , near Chuhsien Weather in hex: Heavy cloud Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 4 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-67-Ib Peggy x 12 Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 17 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-67-Ib Peggy: 3 damaged Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 6 damaged Allied ground losses: 25 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Aircraft Attacking: 17 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 6000 feet * Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on 35th Division, at 81,52 (Siangtan) Weather in hex: Light rain Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 12 minutes Allied aircraft P-51D Mustang x 5 Thunderbolt II x 8 A-26B Invader x 18 B-25D1 Mitchell x 30 B-25G Mitchell x 3 B-25H Mitchell x 45 B-25J1 Mitchell x 69 B-25J11 Mitchell x 101 PBJ-1D Mitchell x 3 PBJ-1J Mitchell x 17 PV-1 Ventura x 3 Allied aircraft losses B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged Japanese ground losses: 1656 casualties reported Squads: 6 destroyed, 56 disabled Non Combat: 30 destroyed, 204 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Guns lost 26 (7 destroyed, 19 disabled) Aircraft Attacking: 14 x PBJ-1J Mitchell bombing from 8000 feet Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 21, 45 - GROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 3470 troops, 283 guns, 260 vehicles, Assault Value = 4711 Defending force 243113 troops, 3016 guns, 1323 vehicles, Assault Value = 7903 Japanese ground losses: 203 casualties reported Squads: 2 destroyed, 16 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Allied ground losses: Guns lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 88,55 (near Chuhsien) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 2856 troops, 18 guns, 282 vehicles, Assault Value = 1658 Defending force 25255 troops, 187 guns, 40 vehicles, Assault Value = 907 Japanese ground losses: 10 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Assaulting units: Provisionl Tank Brigade Gardner's Horse Regiment 19th Motorised Division 255th Indian Tank Brigade Guides Cavalry Regiment 18th Cavalry Regiment 50th Tank Brigade 254th Armoured Brigade 17th Motorised Division Defending units: 88th Infantry Brigade 13th Division 72nd Ind.Mixed Brigade 71st Ind.Mixed Brigade 43rd Army -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Siangtan (81,52) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 204630 troops, 1304 guns, 162 vehicles, Assault Value = 11205 Defending force 25109 troops, 227 guns, 84 vehicles, Assault Value = 287 Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2 Allied adjusted assault: 4319 Japanese adjusted defense: 16 Allied assault odds: 269 to 1 (fort level 2) Allied forces CAPTURE Siangtan !!! Combat modifiers Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-), supply(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 11460 casualties reported Squads: 645 destroyed, 40 disabled Non Combat: 1319 destroyed, 27 disabled Engineers: 22 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 178 (169 destroyed, 9 disabled) Vehicles lost 74 (74 destroyed, 0 disabled) Units retreated 18 Units destroyed 9 Allied ground losses: 918 casualties reported Squads: 3 destroyed, 193 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled Defeated Japanese Units Retreating! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reinforcements: Shichisho Shin-tai arrives at Tokyo Losses: none. Ships Sunk: Previous report of sinking of SS Shark II incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service CVE Attacker is reported to have been sunk near Keijo on Jun 01, 1945 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ [image]local://upfiles/37283/DA9715DDCC404D4187E5237927D786E7.jpg[/image] ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The B-29-25 and the B-29B teamed together are potent. The fully gunned version fights off the NF and the double loaded ones cream the factories. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 12:02:58 AM)
22 June 1945 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ KOREA: Another very quiet turn as the Allies hang out near Korea, but don't do anything. Yet. STRAT BOMBING: A day off. Much needed. HOME ISLANDS: Just twiddling with pilots and air groups. Trying to ditch as many LB training groups as I can and skimming pilots from the fighter training groups to fill out other units. CHINA: No attack today. Instead the Allied tanks turn tail and make for the +3 hex to their rear. Our tank division moved in to claim the hex, and an infantry division will be moving in shortly with an RF battalion and an arty unit. The units in hex with the tanks now will move up as soon as they leave the hex. Looks like the Allies have moved over a hex side opener unit that is nearing our block, so we won't get a shot to trap anyone, but did lock the door on the Shanghai area through this route until the big stacks arrive soon. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 22, 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 98137 troops, 1969 guns, 1809 vehicles, Assault Value = 4777 Defending force 243685 troops, 3008 guns, 1321 vehicles, Assault Value = 7955 Japanese ground losses: 504 casualties reported Squads: 7 destroyed, 46 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled) Allied ground losses: 249 casualties reported Squads: 2 destroyed, 24 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Wuchang (84,51) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 12301 troops, 176 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 508 Defending force 6754 troops, 70 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 218 Assaulting units: 6th Australian Division Defending units: 1st Ind.Mixed Brigade 90th JAAF AF Bn -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reinforcements: none. Losses: none. Ships Sunk: Previous report of sinking of DD Kempenfelt incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ [image]local://upfiles/37283/01209495BC78435F8EE4C284C8ECEB5F.jpg[/image] ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ I had the option to move in this turn and try to lock the tanks in place, but I decided not to risk giving up the +3 hex. I can hold there and have lots of chances to maneuver back if needed later. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ny59giants -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 1:13:07 AM)
I wonder in other PBEMs that the Allies don't go for NF factories early on to allow the B-29s more freedom in going after the modern fighters afterwards.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 5:30:02 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ny59giants I wonder in other PBEMs that the Allies don't go for NF factories early on to allow the B-29s more freedom in going after the modern fighters afterwards. He tried earlier a bit, but wasn't as successful from longer range and without the B-29B. That bomb load seems to be the key, because once he had that he is able to hit anything in one turn, regardless of defenses. The way the code works favors bombers with a bigger load to get a hit, regardless of how many there are, or at least it sure seems that way. He's sent 200-300 B-24 with no results at similar targets, but he can have 50 B-29B and wipe an aircraft factory completely, with NF up, bad weather, low moon and flak.

Mike McCreery -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 11:45:17 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: obvert quote: ORIGINAL: ny59giants I wonder in other PBEMs that the Allies don't go for NF factories early on to allow the B-29s more freedom in going after the modern fighters afterwards. He tried earlier a bit, but wasn't as successful from longer range and without the B-29B. That bomb load seems to be the key, because once he had that he is able to hit anything in one turn, regardless of defenses. The way the code works favors bombers with a bigger load to get a hit, regardless of how many there are, or at least it sure seems that way. He's sent 200-300 B-24 with no results at similar targets, but he can have 50 B-29B and wipe an aircraft factory completely, with NF up, bad weather, low moon and flak. B17's have a load of 6000, Liberators 8000, B29's 20,000 bomb load. So almost 4 times the amount of bomb load a B-17 can carry. I am willing to bet that the delivery systems (accuracy) are better too.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 1:40:26 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr quote: ORIGINAL: obvert quote: ORIGINAL: ny59giants I wonder in other PBEMs that the Allies don't go for NF factories early on to allow the B-29s more freedom in going after the modern fighters afterwards. He tried earlier a bit, but wasn't as successful from longer range and without the B-29B. That bomb load seems to be the key, because once he had that he is able to hit anything in one turn, regardless of defenses. The way the code works favors bombers with a bigger load to get a hit, regardless of how many there are, or at least it sure seems that way. He's sent 200-300 B-24 with no results at similar targets, but he can have 50 B-29B and wipe an aircraft factory completely, with NF up, bad weather, low moon and flak. B17's have a load of 6000, Liberators 8000, B29's 20,000 bomb load. So almost 4 times the amount of bomb load a B-17 can carry. I am willing to bet that the delivery systems (accuracy) are better too. There is no accuracy difference in level bombing that I know of. What would control this in airframes in game? I think you're missing the point I'm making here, which is that you could have the equal amount of bombs dropped by any number of planes, but those planes with more per plane will get more hits. The B-29s should be effective, I'm not arguing against that. Night bombing in game is simply not quite right, and even daylight bombing has some problems, and those seem to stem from bomb load and targeting. The percentage chance for a hit doesn't seem to go down as more is destroyed on the ground, (which it certainly should for any item in multiple, like troops, planes or ships), but as I mentioned, 200-300 Allied 4E of any other type most likely won't get even 1 hit when 50-70 B-29B will get hits in the same circumstances. 300 x 8,000 = 2,400,000 70 x 20,000 = 1,400,000

witpqs -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 3:28:52 PM)
I think most of what you said is right, but I have a lot of trouble accepting that 200-300 of any other 4E is lucky to get one hit, even with an equal amount of bombs. Are you basing that on sand-boxing, or on the game with Joc? Because - while I have no idea what Joc has done - it makes sense to move the best bomber pilots to the B-29s as they arrive. And that might greatly skew what you see in-game. Especially if you did not have enough 'trained' bomber pilots to refill those other 4EB squadrons. In fact, in the middle of 1945 (I am not there yet) I imagine it's pretty easy to run low on trained pilots for 4EB. Remember that even though pilot experience is very high for new USA pilots at that point, the additional skills were not programmed until AE, and there are none reflected in the pilots database. The skill assignments come from some formula in the game code that is driven by the experience rating. A newly arriving USA pilot, even late game with "high" experience is not going to arrive with 70+ bombing skill. And any pilots transferred to the B-29 groups have a good chance of being well above that mark.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 3:53:38 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs I think most of what you said is right, but I have a lot of trouble accepting that 200-300 of any other 4E is lucky to get one hit, even with an equal amount of bombs. Are you basing that on sand-boxing, or on the game with Joc? I am basing on the game, but his 4Es have no trouble hitting other targets with a high level of effectiveness. I would seriously doubt it's pilots. I just think the is how the game works. Hence why so many people think night bombing is messed up, ground bombing of troops produces wildly unrealistic results, and why you can bomb the infrastructure and supply of any base to 100% destroyed, when in reality that was very hard to do. quote: Because - while I have no idea what Joc has done - it makes sense to move the best bomber pilots to the B-29s as they arrive. And that might greatly skew what you see in-game. Especially if you did not have enough 'trained' bomber pilots to refill those other 4EB squadrons. In fact, in the middle of 1945 (I am not there yet) I imagine it's pretty easy to run low on trained pilots for 4EB. Remember that even though pilot experience is very high for new USA pilots at that point, the additional skills were not programmed until AE, and there are none reflected in the pilots database. The skill assignments come from some formula in the game code that is driven by the experience rating. A newly arriving USA pilot, even late game with "high" experience is not going to arrive with 70+ bombing skill. And any pilots transferred to the B-29 groups have a good chance of being well above that mark. You'll have to ask him to know more about his pilots. When this one is done I'll be doing a lot of testing to understand better things I've observed in game. Not quite time for that now, but a list is developing.

witpqs -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 3:57:56 PM)
I don't mean to imply that the combat algorithms are the same for all targets types, I do assume they have differences. If it is pilots, maybe the industrial targets are harder to hit in the algorithms and so the mix of pilots he has makes a bigger difference than it does on other targets? Speculation.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 5:00:49 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs I don't mean to imply that the combat algorithms are the same for all targets types, I do assume they have differences. If it is pilots, maybe the industrial targets are harder to hit in the algorithms and so the mix of pilots he has makes a bigger difference than it does on other targets? Speculation. They could even be the same, exactly, and it's the difference in bomb load for each aircraft that is found through the dice rolls to 'hit' target. So that with aircraft with more bombs there are more hits than there would likely be if the same amount of aircraft with the same factors otherwise (pilots, weather, etc) dropped the same amount of bombs. I don't know, but I'd like to find out at some point.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 5:15:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: obvert quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs I don't mean to imply that the combat algorithms are the same for all targets types, I do assume they have differences. If it is pilots, maybe the industrial targets are harder to hit in the algorithms and so the mix of pilots he has makes a bigger difference than it does on other targets? Speculation. They could even be the same, exactly, and it's the difference in bomb load for each aircraft that is found through the dice rolls to 'hit' target. So that with aircraft with more bombs there are more hits than there would likely be if the same amount of aircraft with the same factors otherwise (pilots, weather, etc) dropped the same amount of bombs. I don't know, but I'd like to find out at some point. I don't have a problem with this. One plane dropping a 4x larger bomb load has those bombs in a tighter pattern than four independent planes dropping the same total. It's the "stick" concept. Hit or miss, the larger stick does its job together. On misses you also have 4x the misses as the whole stick is a munitions unit. I believe Nemo did a lot of sand-box work on this long ago. I have seen all the way back in 1942 strat bombing that a larger installation on the ground, in point terms, takes more percentage damage than a thin installation, with the same planes, pilots, and bomb load. Hitting 100 HI it's easier to get ten points of damage than hitting a 20 point HI. Again, that makes sense to me. Was the B-29's radar bomb sight better than the Norden bomb sight, and is that in the EXE somewhere? No idea. But I have to think the radar was better else the B-29 would have had the Norden. No idea if that's in the game.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 5:24:24 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: obvert quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs I don't mean to imply that the combat algorithms are the same for all targets types, I do assume they have differences. If it is pilots, maybe the industrial targets are harder to hit in the algorithms and so the mix of pilots he has makes a bigger difference than it does on other targets? Speculation. They could even be the same, exactly, and it's the difference in bomb load for each aircraft that is found through the dice rolls to 'hit' target. So that with aircraft with more bombs there are more hits than there would likely be if the same amount of aircraft with the same factors otherwise (pilots, weather, etc) dropped the same amount of bombs. I don't know, but I'd like to find out at some point. I don't have a problem with this. One plane dropping a 4x larger bomb load has those bombs in a tighter pattern than four independent planes dropping the same total. It's the "stick" concept. Hit or miss, the larger stick does its job together. On misses you also have 4x the misses as the whole stick is a munitions unit. I believe Nemo did a lot of sand-box work on this long ago. I have seen all the way back in 1942 strat bombing that a larger installation on the ground, in point terms, takes more percentage damage than a thin installation, with the same planes, pilots, and bomb load. Hitting 100 HI it's easier to get ten points of damage than hitting a 20 point HI. Again, that makes sense to me. Was the B-29's radar bomb sight better than the Norden bomb sight, and is that in the EXE somewhere? No idea. But I have to think the radar was better else the B-29 would have had the Norden. No idea if that's in the game. No idea about the bombsight. At night there was no precision bombing in the war except a few isolated, intensively planned specialist missions. So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 5:42:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: obvert So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well. I'm no statistician either, and my probability class is 35 years ago, but I think you're a bit off. It comes down to independent trials. Keep the bombsight accuracy the same as well as pilot skill. Let those variables fall out. Take a total bomb load of 20,000. In one case it's in four B-17s; in the other it's in one B-29, dropping them in one stick. Both have a chance-to-hit of 33%. The B-29 will have more hits. It has to overcome the 33% in one trial. The B-17 total results will be the sum of four independent trials at 33% each time. That was one of the two big design drivers of the B-29 program from what I've read. (Less than some of the B-29 experts in the forum to be sure.) The other driver was range. But if you're going to risk one crew and consume four engines and one airframe worth of maintenance overhead, you're going to get better results from a bigger bomb load dropped as one stick. It would have been much, much easier to design a B-29 with the B-17s bomb load but the B-29's range. Cheaper, faster. But they added the load spec because of ops research on early-war results from more bombers, in independent trials, dropping the same total load. (And at much more crew risk in total.) I THINK the bomb sight was sold as better as well, but I don't know, and I doubt that's in the game. (But might be.)

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 5:56:09 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: obvert So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well. I'm no statistician either, and my probability class is 35 years ago, but I think you're a bit off. It comes down to independent trials. Keep the bombsight accuracy the same as well as pilot skill. Let those variables fall out. Take a total bomb load of 20,000. In one case it's in four B-17s; in the other it's in one B-29, dropping them in one stick. Both have a chance-to-hit of 33%. The B-29 will have more hits. It has to overcome the 33% in one trial. The B-17 total results will be the sum of four independent trials at 33% each time. All sounds good. I still don't understand. Pretty dense here. I thought the chance to hit was determined for each bomb even after the plane was over target. How else would a single hit be registered? The same as how a DB can be on target once out of two or three bombs in it's run on a ship.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 6:07:51 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: obvert quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: obvert So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well. I'm no statistician either, and my probability class is 35 years ago, but I think you're a bit off. It comes down to independent trials. Keep the bombsight accuracy the same as well as pilot skill. Let those variables fall out. Take a total bomb load of 20,000. In one case it's in four B-17s; in the other it's in one B-29, dropping them in one stick. Both have a chance-to-hit of 33%. The B-29 will have more hits. It has to overcome the 33% in one trial. The B-17 total results will be the sum of four independent trials at 33% each time. All sounds good. I still don't understand. Pretty dense here. I thought the chance to hit was determined for each bomb even after the plane was over target. How else would a single hit be registered? The same as how a DB can be on target once out of two or three bombs in it's run on a ship. The question then comes down to per-bomb or per-plane. I don't know. But if it's per-bomb and accuracy is not considered across the war it's a pretty crude model. That means a 500-lber dropped from a Bolo has exactly the same effect as one dropped from a B-29. Or a P-40E. And I don't see that and from your comments neither do you. It would be possible to do a second pass through the to-hit loop, first with a to-hit for the plane/stick and then a per-bomb, with the per-bomb only reached if the code passed the first check. Same idea for DBs. But if accuracy is the same for all 4Es, and I'm not saying it is, then getting past the first gate is still a function of number of planes dropping to equal the same load in the two cases.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 6:17:59 PM)
FWIW and noting I am no Editor maven, I took a peek. GP bombs from 100 lbs to 2000 lbs have an accuracy variable, and while somewhat linear by size they are not purely so. I have no idea how this number is cranked into the forumulae. Bombers don't seem to have any accuracy ratings in the Editor I can see. That doesn't mean there aren't things done in the EXE though. Or, the game could consider all bomb sights equal and put the whole variability load on the pilot bombing-type skill number.

PaxMondo -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 8:31:49 PM)
I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations: They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'. They tend to have higher hit rates. The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 9:43:21 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: PaxMondo I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations: They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'. They tend to have higher hit rates. The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about. I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses?

PaxMondo -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 9:58:07 PM)
Maybe, but even more. They will complete the mission even when they lose +10% of their force. Medium Bombers rarely do that, they generally "abort" before that (they never make it to target)

LoBaron -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/2/2014 10:18:44 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: PaxMondo I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations: They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'. They tend to have higher hit rates. The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about. I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses? It is much simpler. Medium bombers do not fly if potential CAP outnumbers potential escorts by more than 50(IIRC)%. For heavies that rule does not apply.

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/3/2014 7:54:33 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: LoBaron quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: PaxMondo I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations: They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'. They tend to have higher hit rates. The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about. I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses? It is much simpler. Medium bombers do not fly if potential CAP outnumbers potential escorts by more than 50(IIRC)%. For heavies that rule does not apply. Ha! My 2E are happy to fly into huge CAP and get decimated. Happens regularly.[:D]

obvert -> RE: Wild Sheep Chase (3/3/2014 9:49:15 AM)
23 - 24 June 1945 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ SUBS: There still seem to be a lot of Allied subs around Moppo. We have 5 fully repaired. I'm trying to thikn of a good last ride for them, but no opportunities have surfaced yet. [:)] KOREA: Holding fine at Gunzan and Masan. Sending Masan a bit of supply now. The arty units are filling up in the +3 hex between, then will move back into the combat zones. Bombing continues at Gunzan, and goes for the fields. I was surprised to find them fully open after the 24th turn. [X(] I guess 950 engineers are a lot, huh? The forts actually went up as well, to 2.25. STRAT BOMBING: The Allies bomb Mukden at night and during the day. I literally this turn took out the NF to upgrade to Peggy NF, and there is no day CAP there. Not interested in fighting an air war over Manchuria/Korea where I can't fix or replenish airframes. Just holding the Allies until Soviet activation. If I can do that I'll be happy. Then a massed retreat to the HI with whatever I can save. HOME ISLANDS: Every air groups that has been low a few planes or pilots is being sent through Tokyo to upgrade, replenish and fill out. I've got 2200 AS here and used 2k+ supply just last turn filling out airframes in groups. This is also the cost of losing 45k airframes over the course of the game. It costs, and anyone in 43-44 as Japan should try to realize the good times won't last forever fighting every battle all over the map. Pick spots. I wish I would have more often. RECON: The Ki-95 made it's debut over Moppo. I foolishly spent a 30 sized R n D factory on this plane, and it's just getting here now, but it's good at least. i flew it in at 40k, and with it's speed and it's camera, it did well to spot the base and only one came back damaged out of 3 sent in. No losses. CHINA: The little trapping maneuver accomplished goal number 1 near Anking. We shut the movement of the Allied tanks from getting closer to Shanghai or breaking into the plains in the center. Goal number 2, to actually trap them, has been foiled by a following unit that opened the hex side. That's fine. It would have been hard to reduce them with little supply anyway, and now if reinforcements come this would be a nice hex to defend with it's +3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 23, 45 - MORNING -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Fusan , at 103,55 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 3 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-102a Randy x 3 Allied aircraft Spitfire F.XIV x 27 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-102a Randy: 2 destroyed No Allied losses Aircraft Attacking: 27 x Spitfire F.XIV sweeping at 32000 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 34 minutes Allied aircraft Liberator B.VI x 9 Liberator GR.VI x 14 B-24J Liberator x 14 A-26B Invader x 27 B-24D1 Liberator x 6 B-24J Liberator x 81 B-25J11 Mitchell x 3 PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15 PB4Y-2 Privateer x 12 Allied aircraft losses B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged A-26B Invader: 1 damaged B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged B-25J11 Mitchell: 2 damaged PB4Y-2 Privateer: 2 damaged Japanese ground losses: 999 casualties reported Squads: 1 destroyed, 49 disabled Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 66 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled Guns lost 14 (2 destroyed, 12 disabled) Airbase hits 2 Airbase supply hits 4 Runway hits 16 Aircraft Attacking: 12 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 23, 45 - GROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Masan (102,54) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 67636 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2642 Defending force 93455 troops, 1306 guns, 208 vehicles, Assault Value = 3185 Japanese ground losses: 90 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 98303 troops, 1967 guns, 1809 vehicles, Assault Value = 4816 Defending force 242197 troops, 2996 guns, 1321 vehicles, Assault Value = 7874 Japanese ground losses: 529 casualties reported Squads: 5 destroyed, 28 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled) Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled) Allied ground losses: 28 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 68,47 (near Kunming) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 35460 troops, 810 guns, 524 vehicles, Assault Value = 718 Defending force 13576 troops, 84 guns, 19 vehicles, Assault Value = 231 Allied adjusted assault: 390 Japanese adjusted defense: 193 Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 Combat modifiers Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), supply(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 5060 casualties reported Squads: 131 destroyed, 10 disabled Non Combat: 115 destroyed, 6 disabled Engineers: 4 destroyed, 1 disabled Guns lost 10 (10 destroyed, 0 disabled) Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled) Units retreated 5 Allied ground losses: 386 casualties reported Squads: 1 destroyed, 20 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled) Defeated Japanese Units Retreating! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - NIGHT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 30,000 Yards Japanese Ships MTB G-452 MTB G-453 MTB G-454 MTB G-455 MTB G-461 Allied Ships DD Fletcher DD Ammen DD Anthony DD Bell DD Bennion DD Bullard DD Bush DD Cogswell DD Converse DD Daly DD Heywood Edwards DD Erben Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 100% moonlight: 11,000 yards -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night Air attack on Mukden , at 104,42 Weather in hex: Overcast Raid detected at 66 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 20 minutes Allied aircraft B-29-25 Superfort x 45 B-29B Superfort x 24 No Allied losses Light Industry hits 4 Aircraft Attacking: 5 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 8000 feet * City Attack: 18 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - MORNING -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Kumamoto , at 102,59 Weather in hex: Severe storms Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 34 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-43-IV Oscar x 4 Ki-84a Frank x 10 Allied aircraft PB4Y-2 Privateer x 58 No Japanese losses No Allied losses Light Industry hits 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Kumamoto , at 102,59 Weather in hex: Severe storms Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 17 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-43-IV Oscar x 3 Ki-84a Frank x 7 Allied aircraft PB4Y-2 Privateer x 6 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses PB4Y-2 Privateer: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged Aircraft Attacking: 3 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet City Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - AFTERNOON -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on Fusan , at 103,55 Weather in hex: Heavy cloud Raid detected at 11 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 3 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-43-IV Oscar x 7 Ki-84r Frank x 13 Allied aircraft P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 16 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed Aircraft Attacking: 7 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 33 minutes Allied aircraft B-24J Liberator x 8 A-26B Invader x 12 B-25J11 Mitchell x 7 P-38J Lightning x 18 P-38L Lightning x 38 PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9 PB4Y-2 Privateer x 9 Allied aircraft losses B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged PB4Y-2 Privateer: 1 damaged Japanese ground losses: 326 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled Airbase hits 3 Airbase supply hits 4 Runway hits 32 Aircraft Attacking: 9 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 32 minutes Allied aircraft Liberator B.VI x 22 Liberator GR.VI x 11 B-24J Liberator x 9 A-26B Invader x 12 PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9 PB4Y-2 Privateer x 8 Allied aircraft losses Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged A-26B Invader: 1 damaged Japanese ground losses: 214 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Airbase hits 10 Airbase supply hits 11 Runway hits 51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on Mukden , at 104,42 Weather in hex: Severe storms Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 13 minutes Allied aircraft B-24J Liberator x 67 Allied aircraft losses B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged Heavy Industry hits 58 Aircraft Attacking: 15 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 9000 feet City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - GROUND -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Masan (102,54) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 67631 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2640 Defending force 113302 troops, 1513 guns, 300 vehicles, Assault Value = 3858 Japanese ground losses: 68 casualties reported Squads: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Allied ground losses: 3 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 78144 troops, 1543 guns, 1435 vehicles, Assault Value = 4867 Defending force 222716 troops, 2714 guns, 1021 vehicles, Assault Value = 7699 Japanese ground losses: 637 casualties reported Squads: 13 destroyed, 44 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Guns lost 13 (4 destroyed, 9 disabled) Allied ground losses: 214 casualties reported Squads: 5 destroyed, 15 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled) Vehicles lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Wuchang (84,51) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 12306 troops, 176 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 509 Defending force 6731 troops, 70 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 216 Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4 Allied adjusted assault: 434 Japanese adjusted defense: 173 Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 4) Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4 Combat modifiers Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), supply(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 142 casualties reported Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled) Allied ground losses: 153 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Assaulting units: 6th Australian Division Defending units: 1st Ind.Mixed Brigade 90th JAAF AF Bn -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reinforcements: Still getting new training units! I am disbanding as many IJA LB truing groups as possible. Letting them get the pilots to 60 low naval and then done. I'll keep the fighter units, as even training they can fly CAP, but I'll change most to Oscars, Tonys, or Tojos. 195th Shinbu-tai arrives at Matsuyama 197th Shinbu-tai arrives at Matsuyama Losses: none. Ships Sunk: TK Coulie is reported to have been sunk near Tinian on Nov 22, 1944 Previous report of sinking of CA Dorsetshire incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service Previous report of sinking of SS Thrasher incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service DD Grenville is reported to have been sunk near Amami Oshima on May 16, 1945 Previous report of sinking of SS Queenfish incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ [image]local://upfiles/37283/E676E4D260224618A68DE8D08019A958.jpg[/image] ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ So Moppo is fully functional as both a CAP and strike base now. That is worrying. I sensed a lot of TFs guarding now from night search reports, but daytime recon and search gets so disrupted by CAP I can't see the actual numbers or composition of the defenses. I sent in PTs this turn to check it out and found a typical 10 ship Fletcher TF. Could be more though, and the Allied CVs moved back North into dangerous zones. I shifted the BBs back to 1 hex from Hiroshima's 800 fighters, so hopefully that keeps them safe. No guarantees though if he goes for it. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

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