Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (5/26/2013 12:07:45 AM)
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May 17, 1942 Calculated Risks [image]local://upfiles/31387/6EFF8BC637A24046B9D7761D36166691.jpg[/image] 1) This was a difficult turn to plan. I went back three times and adjusted courses and air orders, ending up about where I started. During planning, two IJN TFs showed. One inside the northern Strait, which read as a 2-ships TF. I presumed it was ASW, as it had tangled with one of my subs in the past few days. Not to say TFs can't swap, but that was my guess. The other was one hex NW of Sabang and read as one unknown ship. I have a small surviving Hudson unit at Sabang on Search, but I knew this was worng. The TF has read as carriers before. I was fine with that. The question was, were they there to support a landing at Sabang or to lead a turn around the tip and a run down the west side to land at Padang in order to march on PBang? To oppose, I had an RN carrier TF with Hermes and two conventionals, Swordfish and Albacores, plus decent fighters left but not enough. And two BB-led surface groups, one Force Z, the other based on two old R-type, both with mostly DDs in escort. Both also very low on fuel. I had one replenishment group to the west, but only with about 7000 fuel. Cocos has more, plus an AKE. The carriers had more fuel, but not enough to share. So, what to do? I sent the carriers due south on the x=axis you can see in the screenshot. CAP at 50%. TBs on heavy Search to the SE. The BB TFs I also ordered south, in mutually-suporting react postures, and one to take the fuel from the replenishment group tomorrow. The other was going to have to rely on Cocos and crossed-fingers. I saw three possibilities for the Japanese carriers: 1) Support for Sabang, they stay put, I'm good. 2) Support for a run on Padang, they come around the corner, hug the coast for LBA help and to avoid subs in deep water, and I'm good. 3) They know what I have and where, and they hunt. Mike took Door #3. The surface TFs did not play a part. And, two more red TFs appeared on the replay. The northern one is, I think, the little lost lamb of a CA/DD, but I don't know that. The one SE of Great Nocobar I don't know what that is. I suppose it could be a landing force to take an AF to oppose Pt. Blair, but Japan has a lot of undone work still before they ought to be worrying about moves like that. So, if that's what it is, I'm OK with it. But the IJN carriers, Junyo and Hiyo at least, attacked the RN. The CAP did very well, but there just weren't enough to burn through. Most of the Kates had bombs, but not all. The armored flight decks did well as some bombs got a "belt armor struck" message, not a damage report. I think Hermes might be a goner, but the others I have hopes for. Some of the air bingoed to Sabang, some to alternate decks, so at least one deck is working, but might be over-loaded. Tomorow I have to figure out how to drive the BBs. Chase the contact to the north and then to Colombo for fulll fuel? Continue south? Hang around and oppose a landing at Sabang, knowing there are carriers? There's no reason to land on Sabang; a march from Medan is low-cost, although slower. Sabang is a thorn to Japan, and the preferred port for Medan oil, and he might be in a hurry now, but it's not mandatory for Japan to have soon. I need time to get more into PBang, especially the US Army division in the wormhole. My USN ships are also a week out of CT. Mostly DDs, but they will give me raiding I don't have with Force Z. POW needs her January upgrade still as well. Anyway, the battle: Morning Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 37,67 Weather in hex: Partial cloud Raid detected at 98 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 42 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 30 B5N1 Kate x 11 B5N2 Kate x 10 D3A1 Val x 27 Allied aircraft Sea Hurricane Ib x 11 Martlet II x 9 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed B5N1 Kate: 1 damaged B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak D3A1 Val: 5 damaged Allied aircraft losses Sea Hurricane Ib: 1 destroyed Martlet II: 1 destroyed Allied Ships CV Illustrious, Bomb hits 4 CV Indomitable, Bomb hits 5 CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires CLAA Van Heemskerck CA Devonshire, Bomb hits 1 Aircraft Attacking: 11 x B5N1 Kate bombing from 10000 feet Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb 3 x D3A1 Val bombing from 3000 feet Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb 13 x D3A1 Val bombing from 3000 feet Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb 5 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo 11 x D3A1 Val bombing from 3000 feet Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb 4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Hermes ------------------------- Morning Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 40,67 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 23 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 15 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 17 Allied aircraft Sea Hurricane Ib x 4 Swordfish I x 15 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses Sea Hurricane Ib: 1 destroyed Swordfish I: 8 destroyed ------------------------------------ Morning Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 40,67 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 21 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 10 Allied aircraft Albacore I x 12 No Japanese losses Allied aircraft losses Albacore I: 3 destroyed 2) Big air battles over Djambi as well. Japan has embellished the CAP there with many Oscars, suggesting that now oil ports are open up north he doesn't want to lose the supply now, any more than already. The Allies have a few P-38s in the fight, and they hold the line for the most part, losing one, but letting some of the bombers get through for 2 Oil hits. Morning Air attack on Djambi , at 48,88 Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 5 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 5 Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 9 Allied aircraft B-25C Mitchell x 2 Hudson I x 5 P-38E Lightning x 3 P-39D Airacobra x 3 P-40E Warhawk x 1 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses B-25C Mitchell: 2 damaged Hudson I: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged Oil hits 2 ------------------------- Morning Air attack on Djambi , at 48,88 Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 2 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 2 Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 3 Allied aircraft A-24 Banshee x 11 P-38E Lightning x 3 P-39D Airacobra x 2 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses A-24 Banshee: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged ------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Djambi , at 48,88 Weather in hex: Moderate rain Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 4 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 1 Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 1 Allied aircraft B-25C Mitchell x 2 P-38E Lightning x 3 P-39D Airacobra x 3 No Japanese losses Allied aircraft losses P-38E Lightning: 1 destroyed 3) Allied strat bombing continues with a failed night attack on Sian Oil, an attack on Singers' shipyard (1 B-26 lost, no damage), 3 Liberators on Brunei Oil for 2 hits, and an HI attack on Kunming for 5 hits with 2706 Fires remaining from previous days' strikes. 4) Prome CAP battles end with the Allies ahead a bit. There is no bombing here, so I wonder. More and more LCUs are approacing Prome, where about 1200 AV are altready digging in. 5) An I-boat SE of Ceylon takes an AG in a supply TF for Port Blair. USS Trigger, patrolling on the deep/shallow line SE of the southern tip of Korea, sinks xAKL Nichiro Maru, under escort. Probably a Resource hauler. 6) In China, a lot of action. A tank LCU (12th Reg. from probe bombing) appears on the yelow road in the high mountains to the east of the Big Stack. It's posisble some supply from Chungking might be getting past it, but not much, which means Chungking's supply deterioration is worse than I thought, and mostly due to bombing. A strong response force commences a march out of Chungking to the west to fight the one LCU camped there, an ID I beleive. Arty comes with. A probe bombardment is done at Neikiang, to the west of Chungking and a Resource feeder. It is not strongly held, and only has Forts 2+. The stack readying an attack is very tank heavy. Ground combat at Neikiang (75,44) Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 11807 troops, 108 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 480 Defending force 39013 troops, 224 guns, 553 vehicles, Assault Value = 1366 Allied ground losses: 39 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Assaulting units: 51st Chinese Corps 2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps 3rd Chinese Cavalry Corps 7th Construction Regiment 3rd Group Army 39th Group Army Defending units: 24th Division 2nd Ind.Mixed Regiment 11th Tank Regiment 3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade 3rd Tank Regiment 10th Tank Regiment 20th Recon Regiment 9th Ind.Mixed Brigade 28th Engineer Regiment 26th Engineer Regiment 1st Army 5th Army The Big Stack went to 4 miles on its march toward history. 7) Finally, in the PI, the Allies kept up the harrassment bombardments at Bataan. A 3-plane Cat unit due to withdraw in two weeks is snuck into Cebu, which has a small LI installation, and ordered to fly in whatever it can to Bataan as long as it lasts. Bataan is becoming a pride target as June approaches.
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