RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/31/2017 10:59:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Andav


I usually have them spelled in my brain different from the map. Balikpapan is a prime example. I also have it spelled in my brain Balikpan. Of course, if it has more then about 5 letters in the name and it is not English or Spanish sounding, I will probably miss spell it. The Dutch names really kill me.
Wa


You want a real head scratcher?
The base north of Pelelieu is shown on the map as Babeldaob, but in some reports in game it pops up as Babeldoap or Babeldaop. I think I saw that during a bombardment by my ships.



Bif1961 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 12:58:19 AM)

Hit them where they ain't is the early war Allied strategy. The Japanese after late 1943 are looking for that showdown where they can put the allies off 6-12 months before the end comes like a tsunami. I know he lost his late 43 carrier battle with you but he has built his forces back and he can still cause damage to your forces if you get sloppy.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 2:13:48 PM)

John's propensity to run the KB (and the Kaigun in general) all over the map, doing inconsequential things, is always interesting to watch.

He appears to think very much at the tactical level - with some operational details thrown in, but he really seems to have a problem with strategic thinking.

I doubt he really comprehends that Canoe is more than happy to sacrifice a division, if he means that John gets totally out of position & isn't able to react effectively against "war-winning" offensives like what Canoe just pulled off in the Philippines.



Lecivius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 3:26:21 PM)

I'm just asking, not being critical. But isn't Manila the goal in getting Luzon? I mean, SAC can hit the main islands now, to a degree. But in my pointy headed little mind Manila is need as a forward base. No?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 3:42:14 PM)

Yeah, Manila is a high-priority goal. I've spelled this out, but it's probably been lost in the clutter of my 10k posts.

I'll move on Manila, but not anytime soon. I don't have the army to do it yet. John is bringing in heavy reinforcements - enough to induce a stalemate. So I'll bide my time, building my bases and trying to secure the central Philippines bases, while waiting for the eventual carrier battle or the point in time in which the Allied army and base-structure is strong enough to allow a move on Manila.

As I've explained in the past, this is going to be a long, six-month campaign. The highest priority remains the Japanese navy, the second highest securing and building the bases (most of which I already have),a nd the third highest is to maul big enemy units. The latter can be done more efficiently once KB is out of the way and I can impose a blockade on Luzon, eliminating supply (IE, a reverse of '41 and '42 on Luzon).

I think, though, that if John suffers a lopsided carrier defeat, he'll seriously consider conceding. At that point he won't have much of a navy left. Such an outcome is not a sure thing, but it's a possibility; a possibility that I'm trying to nurture.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 3:46:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

....I doubt he really comprehends that Canoe is more than happy to sacrifice a division, if he means that John gets totally out of position & isn't able to react effectively against "war-winning" offensives like what Canoe just pulled off in the Philippines.


This was the point I was making in regards to John's recent re-conquest of Celebes. I felt, at the time, that there was a good chance I could turn an operational nightmare into a strategic victory - that John's focus on Celebes, combined with what I was seeing from SigInt, reconnaissance, lack of base-building, and absence of detection on patrolling subs - that John hadn't properly attended to his Philippine defenses; I thought he was going to live to regret committing two divisions and two mixed brigades to Celebes; and I thought all of this was symptomatic of his larger problem: aggressive play while failing to attend to defenses properly.

I think that events have proven this was all true.

However, you readers have the benefit of reading both sides, so you'll know if I'm misreading things or failing to arrive at proper conclusions.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 4:08:19 PM)

4/19/44

Big Tent: KB remains posted near the New Guinea coastline; another powerful enemy bombardment TF strikes Sabang to little effect; and Boela (the citadel for Allied shipping in theater right now) isn't molested. Most, but not all, IJN capital ships are now accounted for. John can't have but a few left for duty elsewhere.

Fun House: Death Star retired to Legaspi to replenish lost aircraft, but flew another costly raid vs. shipping at Manila. I've taken measures to prevent that from happening again. Poilolo is now an advanced Allied PBY base. Also, three or so enemy bases in the central PI have auto-flipped in the past week or so. I'm moving to occupy these so that they don't flip back.

Burma: John's left flank is in bad shape but his right flank is secure. Not sure how that will shake out long term.

Map of Fun House to follow shortly.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/FE46EC356AAB4B98BFA9172E32FEFE88.jpg[/image]



bradfordkay -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 4:15:21 PM)

You haven't mentioned whether you have been building up those other bases you have taken in the Philippines. To me, the reason for invading so many bases at once is to be able to build up a series of interlocking airfields - ones that can provide suitable defense for each other. Otherwise, it seems that you are diluting your efforts and thus throwing away the opportunity to have landed everything on Luzon in order to immediately drive on Manila before he can build up his defenses.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 4:21:21 PM)

This is a long campaign with most of the assets deposited at Naga and Legaspi, where base building is moving rapidly. But other bases are building: Catanduanes and Guiuan airfields are both at level one; others (Cebu, Dinagat, Catbalogan) are coming along more slowly. The pace of building at those places is slower because they have less engineers.

Taking bases, building them strong, forming a strong defensive core in the heart of the Philippines, were higher priorities than moving on Manila and leaving all kinds of potential enemy bases in my rear. This is not a blitzkrieg - I think I've specifically said that before. This campaign is intended to take time, to serve as a vortex, to draw in enemy ships and men, and to then defeat them in (as Obvert says) decisive battle.

Moving on Manila with 200k men while John has 100k or 150k would just be a stalemate for a long, long time. More productive things can be done to solidify the position and permit a combined arms attack that will defeat the enemy 150k army while choking off supply.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 4:27:10 PM)

Fun House

[image]local://upfiles/8143/3AA1897CAE884352BC481DEECE46F9BC.jpg[/image]



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 4:33:37 PM)

Burma no longer matters. He is worried about his hands and toes when you have a firm grip on his balls.....[;)]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 4:34:48 PM)

That's the point I made yesterday - much more genteelly, I might add - by saying he was fighting battles in Texas and Florida while Sherman was bearing down on Atlanta.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 5:26:55 PM)

This has been a costly war at sea for both sides. I've lost a lot of good ships, especially cruisers, destroyers, AOs and TKs. The combat ships were expended to attrition the enemy - pretty effectively, I believe. The fuel/oilers were lost because John sank 'em and because, early in the game, I took a lot of risks with them and didn't fully understand their value (a flaw I am learning from).

But I've been mighty protective of good transports and carriers. That, in turn, has helped create the current environment.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/05AC12DCBB8740679B6C153DBAA2A46B.jpg[/image]



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 5:44:32 PM)

quote:

enemy bombardment TF strikes Sabang


Should be Sorong as you indicated in the map. See post # 8917.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 5:47:34 PM)

Oops, I was suffering a flashback to January 1943!



dave sindel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 5:52:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's the point I made yesterday - much more genteelly, I might add - by saying he was fighting battles in Texas and Florida while Sherman was bearing down on Atlanta.


Yours was an excellent analogy, but crsutton's description cut right to the heart of the matter.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 5:56:13 PM)

Yes, I know, but I wither when someone writes more descriptively than I do!



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 6:15:15 PM)

quote:

destroyers, AOs and TKs.
Well, you should have DD's and TK's you don't know what to do with at this point. I forget how many AO's you get but you have an excellent network of large bases so those should not be an issue anymore. Never seem to have enough CA's & Cl's in the best of times but you should start getting more CA's plus the British ones are not bad. At this point I think it would be really funny if John preserves all his CV's until August 45 and you kill them in port with A-bombs. George B. McClellan would be proud of the state of the KB. All trained, supplied, polished and marching around in circles



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 6:19:13 PM)

I have plenty of TKs and AOs now but things were tight back in early and mid '43.

You're right about cruisers. I lost a lot, so they are scarce, valuable and needed.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 8:54:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

destroyers, AOs and TKs.
Well, you should have DD's and TK's you don't know what to do with at this point. I forget how many AO's you get but you have an excellent network of large bases so those should not be an issue anymore. Never seem to have enough CA's & Cl's in the best of times but you should start getting more CA's plus the British ones are not bad. At this point I think it would be really funny if John preserves all his CV's until August 45 and you kill them in port with A-bombs. George B. McClellan would be proud of the state of the KB. All trained, supplied, polished and marching around in circles


I can always find a use for DDs. Give me more, please.

TKs, sure... even AOs I have more than enough, but I also don't use their at-sea replenishment function as much as other folks seem to.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 8:56:08 PM)

At this point, DDs are certainly more valuable (from a strategic perspective). Although they don't bombard well, they can chase down enemy shipping and put a torpedo or two into capital ships as well.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 9:09:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

At this point, DDs are certainly more valuable (from a strategic perspective). Although they don't bombard well, they can chase down enemy shipping and put a torpedo or two into capital ships as well.


Yeah but if he has traded DDs then he is now getting about 20 every 60 days and John is not. The math works out in the end.



ny59giants -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 9:21:35 PM)

Time to make numerous 8 ship SC TFs made up of Fletchers and go hunting. [sm=00000055.gif]



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/1/2017 11:29:41 PM)

quote:

Time to make numerous 8 ship SC TFs made up of Fletchers and go hunting

indeed. At this point in the war CA's & BB's have as much to fear as you do



Capt. Harlock -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/2/2017 2:18:19 AM)

quote:

Those are battles in Texas and Florida while Sherman is driving on Atlanta.


+1

Nice comparison!



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/2/2017 2:45:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, Manila is a high-priority goal. I've spelled this out, but it's probably been lost in the clutter of my 10k posts.

I'll move on Manila, but not anytime soon. I don't have the army to do it yet. John is bringing in heavy reinforcements - enough to induce a stalemate. So I'll bide my time, building my bases and trying to secure the central Philippines bases, while waiting for the eventual carrier battle or the point in time in which the Allied army and base-structure is strong enough to allow a move on Manila.

As I've explained in the past, this is going to be a long, six-month campaign. The highest priority remains the Japanese navy, the second highest securing and building the bases (most of which I already have),a nd the third highest is to maul big enemy units. The latter can be done more efficiently once KB is out of the way and I can impose a blockade on Luzon, eliminating supply (IE, a reverse of '41 and '42 on Luzon).

I think, though, that if John suffers a lopsided carrier defeat, he'll seriously consider conceding. At that point he won't have much of a navy left. Such an outcome is not a sure thing, but it's a possibility; a possibility that I'm trying to nurture.


Yeah, in all probability you might have been able to pull off a coup de main on Manila. But now it will be a longer campaign. Of course, hindsight is always 20-20. Especially mine.[;)] All in all, if I were the Allied player, I would have to be pretty darn satisfied with your position in the PI.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/2/2017 2:54:52 PM)

Let John pour troops into Luzon. You are correct in thinking that it will merely turn into a giant POW camp once you move closer to Japan.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/2/2017 2:59:31 PM)

There is no way I could have pulled off a coup-de-main....unless I was armed with perfect foresight. I think the only way anybody would conclude that was possible is if they were reading John's AAR and he was expounding on how exposed he was. I wasn't armed with such information and had to allow for all kinds of eventualities. And even if I did have that information it probably only flattered to deceive.

John could easily bring in reinforcemetns from close by, Manila is urban terrain, and he'd have big airfields while I'd have none. Can anyone see how a big land campaign without controlling the air would have a chance of succeeding as a blitzkrieg or coup-de-main? There's no way. No way an army of 150k could move up that peninsula without air cover all the way to Manila and attack successfully before he reinforced strong enough to induce a stalemate in which I'd then have all kinds of problems.

I also had to take measures against him having KB in the region, meaning I had to allow for a possible combined KB/LBA attack and that I might lose.

I began planning this nine months ago and had troops prepped accordingly. I was prepared to move on Manila if I won a carrier battle early in the campaign. Then the road would have indeed been open and I'd have landed at Appari in strength, thus moving on Mainla from both directions. But with KB hanging back, that wasn't possible.

I am concentrating on building a "Big Tent-Type" network of bases. That will allow me to move on Manila eventually no matter where KB is located. Eventually Luzon is going to be either a prison camp or a massive Dunkirk operation for John - sooner (if KB is defeated) or later (once I've done what I need to do).




paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/2/2017 3:04:39 PM)

CR - I believe your assessment is correct. There is no way that John would not have prepared Manila / Luzon for a robust defense, given the time he had, plus his ability to bring reinforcements in fairly quickly (as had been in evidence over the past week).

Instead, you have a very strong position, in the Central Philippines, that John will not be able to evict you from - and even if he tried, it would require substantial commitments in both air and naval power which he has now scattered all over the map.

Kudos.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/2/2017 3:08:33 PM)

Sorry if you said and I missed it - have you recon of ~how many troops are on Luzon?

FYI, I am thinking in terms of potentially trapped there, not defenders for Manila. I regard Manila as certainly a nice base, but moving on with available speed might just make it a bypassed location.



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