RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 1:37:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

They're good on Okinawa and PI, some of the islands. Or just disband them to save supply. [:)]


Heretic! Infidel!

Your true colors are showing! You are no JFB!!!!

Disband an AA unit! Never! Ever!

All true JFB's loves these guns!

[image]local://upfiles/44178/5E094EE4BD03402C95F033AD6118A4EE.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 4:17:50 PM)

John is way more active on his AAR than he has been in recent weeks. I'm looking forward to running the next turn. I'll be looking for signs that KB and Mini KB are on course to rendezvous and that John is finally ready to commit his carriers.

Since I see through the glass darkly, all this may be something else entirely.




MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 5:38:33 PM)

quote:



John is way more active on his AAR than he has been in recent weeks. I'm looking forward to running the next turn. I'll be looking for signs that KB and Mini KB are on course to rendezvous and that John is finally ready to commit his carriers.

Since I see through the glass darkly, all this may be something else entirely.



Not another drill?!


[image]local://upfiles/55056/BFDDA8C4316B4918B847EFE7836168E5.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 6:27:07 PM)

6/12/44

Fun House: It's looking more and more like John is vectoring his carrier aggressively. See map for details. (Later today I'll post a map with info regarding the day's actions centered on ground and air forces.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E82F6EB1330647F3AD023BFE0D8093C2.jpg[/image]




jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 6:49:51 PM)

Can you go into position with your CVs to take advantage of your LBA fighters in the Central PI?




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 7:03:36 PM)

KB may be closer to the Legaspi fields than Death Star is...and Death Star will be shepherding some slower ships (unless I elect to leave them behind).

I have some airfields on the west side - Beaufort, Puerto Princesa and Taytay are level two fields; Balabac Island is level three. These have enough supply to handle some fighter squadrons, but not enough to handle massive bomber missions beyond perhaps an SBD raid or two. But we'd be about even in terms of contributing LBA in that area.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 7:10:19 PM)

Looking at the map, I'd think John would keep KB well out to sea if he came down the east side of the PI. He'd be wary of the big Allied airfields and the possibility I might send out combat ships to disrupt his TFs. But it will take him considerably longer to make a rendezvous if he comes around the west side of the PI, I think. In that event, Death Star might have a window to return to Legaspi...or prevent KB and Mini KB from rendezvousing.

If John truly wants to accomplish a rendezvous, the best way for him to do so is to act very boldly, right now. He'd need to take a chance and send KB down the east size, perhaps at flank speed. And he'd need to send Mini KB strongly NE, perhaps also at flank speed. I think KB and Mini KB would then end up fairly close to different sides of Mindanao, but his ships would be fatigued, and he'd be worried about Mini KB facing some exposure to attack in detail (he'd rate it unlikely I'd send DS ENE at flank speed, but he wouldn't be sure).

Lots to think about.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 10:22:42 PM)

Trying to read tea leaves.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/956F764B667F4E5982F8364B7B43212B.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 11:09:50 PM)

The word apart from KB Mania

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9743BA79AAF848B89D06A4A65E44807D.jpg[/image]




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/24/2017 11:44:07 PM)

Kind of reminds me of the time the Japanese pulled a Jeb Stuart with the baby KB before.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/25/2017 3:57:58 AM)

A simple turn in the middle of 1944, involving hundreds of decisions and perhaps thousands of clicks.

Which way will John's carriers most likely steam?
Adjust search patrols.
Adjust sub patrols.
Should LBA focus on strike potential or base/base-shipping defense?
Move fighters around to provide some local defense around the Sulu Sea region.
Where should Death Star go?
Which ships should follow?
Which ships should detach and where should they go and how will those TFs be configured to follow?
What should be the ranges for carrier strike aircraft and fighters?
Adjust ranges accordingly.
Fiddle with SBD search percentages and TBF ASW percentages.
Which bases should be reconned?
Adjust recon squadrons accordingly.
Should I switch focus of 4EB from Manila to Mindanao airfields for suppression purposes, in the event KB does come this way?
If so, adjust bomber targets.
Add replacement pilots where necessary.
How are ground units doing?
Change commanders for those in harm's way.
Do any ground units need to move up the Luzon peninsula?
Change to strat mode to get them moving.
Okay, what am I forgetting? I don't know, but I'm frazzled, so let's move to the next important theater and go through many new permutations...
...in Thailand....
...in the DEI...
...in the Coral Sea...
...in SoPac....
...in CenPac....
What reinforcements have arrived and where should they go?
...and on and on and on.

Sure is fun!




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/25/2017 4:33:20 AM)

I offer my best guesses (or analysis), to act as a yard stick to measure by tomorrow.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/97F98847652F4FA8B8277C99EF9042A1.jpg[/image]




MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/25/2017 8:06:57 PM)

.....

[image]local://upfiles/55056/521A4A0AC7A4444F9A2919B2876643EF.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/25/2017 8:50:32 PM)

6/13/44

Busy day, but no sign of pending carrier battle. All that analysis fer nothin'.

I feel most like the Confederate private writing a letter home and suddenly ending it, "We're being drummed into line. Expect a big battle momentarily." And it's always just a false alarm...until it isn't.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/5DB6B66240964425AAF8AE9F6CDC2249.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/26/2017 1:04:20 AM)

I'll share now a major part of the game that I haven't discussed previously.

As Fun House unfolded in early April, a strong reinforcement armada took station east of Marcus Island. I was nearly certain that John would react to Fun House strongly, commit KB, and that a channel would open to bring in the reinforcements. He did commit KB briefly, but on a raid against the DEI. As that was happening, my ships moved into position well to the east of Marcus. But KB never again sortied or revealed itself, though I had some indications that it was posted around Pagan. So the armada sat...and sat...and sat. For six weeks it sat.

Finally, in mid-May, I made the hard (for me) decision to pull the TFs back and send them the long way around, through the Coral Sea. They were joined in transit by lots more ships coming in from Pearl and elsewhere in the Pacific. The journey took nearly a month. The Mini Death Star took station at Brisbane to await all those TFs. Now the armada is moving north, schedule to leave Townsville tonight. (And, all the while, I figured KB would show up somewhere far away, so that I'd kick myself for not maintaining position near Marcus; but that never happened.)

The successful passage of this armada into the DEI to unite with Death Star is the most critical operation now. There is a chance KB will pounce or that John will orchestrate a KB/Mini KB merger + pounce.

He cannot allow this junction to take place. The supply and fuel will allow offensive operations to continue indefinitely; the troops will permit powerful new offensive operations; the combat ships will replace some damaged during hard campaigning; and the carriers will boost DS numbers way beyond what's been seen to date.

This transit will be of immense importance; not as sexy as a big battle, but more important.




Reg -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/26/2017 4:04:00 AM)


It's posts like this that make following this AAR so entertaining and informative. (The Why as well as the What..)_.

Thank you for all your efforts in indulging us. [:)] [:)] [&o]





T Rav -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/26/2017 9:31:58 AM)

Agree with Reg. Your AAR, and others, is what keeps me on the pages. Thank you




paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/26/2017 2:54:47 PM)

Once you've combined your carrier forces, perhaps it will be time to do some hunting?

There is no reason to let John continue to believe he can split his flat tops in the face of your overwhelming superiority.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 12:07:31 AM)

6/14/44

A very busy map with lots of good things happening today. See map for details.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CC6F3A8580A54E809251979B3A8833C3.jpg[/image]




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 12:17:22 AM)

You talk about the Cooktown area and angst for the miniDS, but for the life of me I am having a hard time following this. I don't think I have seen a picture of the area in a dog's age. Could you show one, so I can have some angst too?




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 12:36:29 AM)

That's the kind of question that sets of warning bells!

[image]local://upfiles/8143/AC0AB09E1EA0433BB42825A592978293.jpg[/image]




paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 12:40:33 AM)

He's actually going to contest Miri? He's weeks past the point where he should be committing more troops in that area....oh well, if you can make him bleed for this stupid mistake (if that's what he's doing), all the better.

Any ships you kill will be less you have to deal with around the HI.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 10:11:45 AM)

I've had a really hard time deciding what to do with MDS as it approaches Horn Island. Next turn really seems to be the one of maximum exposure, as the TFs will near Portland Roads. John's been aware of what's going on, I think, and he's shows an elevated interest in this area for weeks (even as I typed that, I think I was coming to a decision).

On the one hand, I don't see anything out there; my carrier coverage is pretty stout, with 600+ aircraft. That can't take one KB one on one, in all likelihood. KB possibly has 1,000 to 1,250 aircraft. I have the benefit of nearby airbases supplementing with LRCAP. But John has the benefit of moderate range big airfields on New Guinea that could load up with all kinds of crap, including kamis.

Most of my TFs are at Cooktown or just to the SE. John might think they're all congregating there, so that the sudden push to Portland Roads catches him leaning a bit the other way...or not.

John is out of town tomorrow through Saturday, and I can just imagine losing a big carrier battle today and then having the evil taste in my mouth for the next five or six days. Yuck!

So I think I'm leaning towards standing down rather than forcing the passage; standing down to see if anything develops and to consider sending full Death Star this way to rendezvous.

But I haven't actually made the decision yet.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 1:05:40 PM)

Decision made, orders entered, turn sent to John.

Mini Death Star and the Herd will report to Cooktown, where 340 land-based fighters will provide protection, along with the full compliment of CVE fighters and the 1/2 of the CVL fighters (CV fighters moved to the airfield). I think that'll be roughly 600 to 700 fighters providing cover. That's not airtight, but it'll take a lot for enemy strike aircraft to penetrate. (Mini KB and it's 250 aircraft is two thousand miles away, so doesn't factor into the equation).

John's had a long time to think about this and set up an ambush. I want to more carefully configure my detection assets and then proceed a bit more carefully. It doesn't make a big difference whether MDS and the Herd arrive in a week or two or three...as long as they arrive safely.




jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 1:23:08 PM)

quote:

It doesn't make a big difference whether MDS and the Herd arrive in a week or two or three...as long as they arrive safely.


This makes a lot of sense. You're way ahead of the historical pace, at least in the PI area, so there is no need for a panicked rush to merge your forces together.




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/27/2017 3:20:48 PM)

Thanks for the picture. I had no clue Japan still had Port Moresby and area.







Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/28/2017 12:15:53 AM)

6/15/44

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/3506B2DF3ECD4454AB2C471DA5879A1E.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/28/2017 3:35:19 AM)

Meaningful SigInt. I think it supports a notion that John will fight for Miri, and that he might bring his carriers in for support. I might not want Miri as badly as he does at the moment (I'm leaning forward, not back), but let's see how this develops. I have subs, aircraft, ships, and southern Luzon is a fortress.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/99C204AB0436441E901C7821143036A0.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/28/2017 3:44:40 AM)

6/15/44

John may have decided that Borneo is worth fighting for. Ordinarily, I'd be all in....and I will put up a fight...but the future lies forward.

The big reinforcement/supply TFs will be moving through the Torres Strait day after tomorrow. In six or eight days it could be in position to move in the Philippines (after having picked up many more reinforcements in the DEI). That is the future. That is what I have to watch out for above all other things. But if I can mess with John efficiently over Borneo, all the better.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/11852CAF13EA41DD9CD624672B00D6F4.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (3/28/2017 3:48:59 AM)

John is leaving on a much-needed family spring break trip to New York City tomorrow. He's had a tough start to the year with lots of funky things going on, including some bodily aches and pains. He's looking forward to walking the streets of New York with his family. He isn't aware that I've arranged for John Dilworth to ambush him near Trinity Church.

He'll be back in town this weekend, and we'll resume the war Sunday or thereabouts.




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