RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2017 10:43:24 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel If I understand the helpful info from Bullwinkle, the 45k+ resources at Manila will yield about 3k supply. So the 450k+ resources in the central Philippines is good for about 30k supply, once transported to Manila. And it will take about 11 months for Manila's Light Industry to accomplish that. In other words, the war will be over by the time I can use the resources in the Philippines. And 33k supply total of 11 months is a minimal amount anyway. Five Liberty Ships (6500 supply) worth. Every little bit helps, but such quantities don't mean much. There may be other Light Industry locations (Hong Kong) that help out too. But I think the traditional ol' transport system (my long, narrow LOC) will handle the vast majority of the supply. Have more war bond drives... hmmm... a (ESOP) an employee stock ownership plan... [image]local://upfiles/55056/F71FFE2D600643229A34DF260574D526.jpg[/image]

MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2017 11:14:44 PM)
Or in other words "NEEDS NOW" vs "NEEDS FEW-CHER". AND "WHAT YOU HAVE TO LET GO NOW" vs "FEW-CHER RETURN"

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 12:44:35 AM)
"For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose than all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago; or to anyone who ever sailed a skiff under a quilt sail, the moment in 1492 when somebody thought This is it: the absolute edge of no return, to turn back now and make home or sail irrevocably on and either find land or plunge over the world's roaring rim.” Ż William Faulkner, Intruder in the Dust

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 12:59:31 AM)
8/14/44 DEI: My plans for tomorrow, based upon what I think KB is most likely to do. It looks like you gents are right: that John will indeed keep KB in the DEI. In as little as three days, a fully refueled Death Star will be ready to accompany supply and troop ships back north. At the moment, John may think - he may hope - that DS is on a mission to chase KB and give battle. [image]local://upfiles/8143/DADCC619FE08490DA4BD6A208828515C.jpg[/image]

Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 1:31:14 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Lowpe, I think you've used your own logic against yourself. You contend that John's play has been militarily beneficial (beyond the VP gaming aspect), but you concede that his play doomed Formosa (through the loss of Orchid Island and Foochow). No, I most certainly did not contend the John's play has been militarily beneficial. I said there were other reasons equal or even more compelling than the VP angle to explain John's current play. And somebody just recently added another reason. I withheld judgement on the effectiveness of his current strategy. However, I do think he is handling the end game well for a first timer. That there will be mistakes, like not garrisoning Orchid Island, will of course happen...and you were quick enough to grab it. The same could be said for the paradrops in Indochina, Vietnam and most recently China. To recap: his economy is intact; he has a potent kb; he has a nice VP cushion. Very few Japanese games are this way in August of 1944 -- especially true for a scenario 1 game (albeit with a greatly augmented IJN). I also think he has done a decent job of wearing down your top line fighters. Now if you can leverage your deep position into autovictory by Jan 1, 1945...then I will say you have won a great victory. So then the question is how long can John survive into 1945? Now, victory is a nebulous thing in this game...and IF the game lasts past Jan 1, 45 then I suspect both sides will claim victory and both sides have compelling justifications and John's current tactics may very well be militarily justified.

Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 1:35:37 AM)
Does Japan have detection on the mini deathstar and big deathstar?

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 1:41:26 AM)
He doesn't have a VP cushion. The Good Guys lead by a thousand points. :) He's not a first timer. He's a veteran, though far more experienced in the first years of the war. He probably has a good deal more experience overall. He's played deep into a game at least once before...back in WitP days, when he and I played into late '44. I don't expect to achieve auto victory by January 1. But probably sometime in the spring of '45. He has detection on both Allied carrier TFs.

Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 1:47:07 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel He doesn't have a VP cushion. The Good Guys lead by a thousand points. :) See, to me at this stage that is a VP cushion. At this point in my game versus Tiemanj, for example, it was better than 2-1.[:D]

crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 2:28:02 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Shelby Foote was the historian who wrote something to this effect: "For every southern boy, there comes a day when it's noon on July 3, 1863." I think in "The Civil War" he quoted that line and said it was Faulkner who originated. From memory. Spot on. From "Intruder in the Dust" CR laments that young people today don't know about Pickett's Charge and it is true. But then again, I don't think many young people read Faulker either. That is even more of a tragedy. "For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two oclock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is stll time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armstead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose and all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago...."

crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 2:39:08 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel "For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose than all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago; or to anyone who ever sailed a skiff under a quilt sail, the moment in 1492 when somebody thought This is it: the absolute edge of no return, to turn back now and make home or sail irrevocably on and either find land or plunge over the world's roaring rim.” Ż William Faulkner, Intruder in the Dust Damn! I really should read everything before I post.[8\|]

crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 2:41:25 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel If I understand the helpful info from Bullwinkle, the 45k+ resources at Manila will yield about 3k supply. So the 450k+ resources in the central Philippines is good for about 30k supply, once transported to Manila. And it will take about 11 months for Manila's Light Industry to accomplish that. In other words, the war will be over by the time I can use the resources in the Philippines. And 33k supply total of 11 months is a minimal amount anyway. Five Liberty Ships (6500 supply) worth. Every little bit helps, but such quantities don't mean much. There may be other Light Industry locations (Hong Kong) that help out too. But I think the traditional ol' transport system (my long, narrow LOC) will handle the vast majority of the supply. With one campaign done and the other 2/3rds done I can say that from the Allied side supply was never an issue. By 1/44, the Allies are crapping out big xAKs religiously. Capturing oil, refineries and LI is plenty of fun but should not really make any difference. Even very successful Japanese raiding at this point would hardly put a dent in the ability of the Allies to move a lot of stuff.

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 4:20:41 AM)
Hey, Ross, here's a semifinals bracket for you to fill out: Emmylou Harris __________________ vs. Linda Ronstadt __________________ and Stevie Nix _____________________ vs. Joan Baez ______________________

Capt. Harlock -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 4:39:34 AM)
quote: "For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance This is the problem with writers vs. historians. Southern boys should think sunrise on July 2 rather than afternoon on July 3.

JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 8:17:09 AM)
Joan Baez wins.

Simonsez -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 2:12:19 PM)
NOT EVEN CLOSE! Stevie Nix by six lengths. Voice power plus, in the day, raw sex appeal.[&o]

jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 2:57:13 PM)
Question about China: as far as I know, most of the Chinese corps are supplied, not with much excess, but they have enough. And a few of them are up to date with the 43 squads. Would it be worthwhile to rattle John's cage by making many probing attacks along the line, or perhaps instead 2 or 3 really strong attacks somewhere? Worst case, the attacks fail with significant losses, but so what if you're not trying to use the Chinese army much anyway? And the Japanese are hardly in position to attempt any sort of counter-offensive against the Chinese. If instead your attacks have any success at all, it puts a lot more pressure on the Japanese defense and may trigger a rushed Japanese response that weakens them somewhere else.

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 3:11:47 PM)
Supply is good in China, now, but only a few units have upgraded to 43 squads. Those are all in base hexes, to the rear. The front line units are basic squads. There's no need in attacking anywhere on the Japanese MLR yet. John's units have been in place for two years. Forts must be immense (mine are). The situation in China and Indochina (they are symbiotic now) are fluid, with John threatened in three directions. I'd rather have as many IJA troops on his MLR (Changsha to Nanning) as possible. For now, better there than having them campaign against the Peep Show troops or the troops coming up from Vietnam.

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 3:17:33 PM)
8/15/44 DEI, KB & Death Stars: A nicely quiet day, as KB appears to be retiring to avoid Death Star. Mini DS, positioned near Merauke, will probably remain there one more day, until I verify that the sea lanes are free of any threat of enemy carriers. I'm almost certain there isn't any threat, but additional ships are just ten hexes away now, so I might as well await them while erring on the side of protecting this armada. The inbound ships carry a total of 650k supplies and 375k fuel. In addition to that fuel, Death Star is going to top off at Sorong and Boela, which have a combined 110k fuel. In about a week, DS and all these ships and troops will return to Manila. From there, the Formosa campaign is just up the road, so fuel consumption shouldn't be a major issue for a long time. (Theater reserve will be Miri, which now has 90k fuel.) [image]local://upfiles/8143/969B6E8382F34FE8925169C4E0E503FF.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 3:34:37 PM)
8/15/44 Peep Show Preparation: Unit preparation for the Formosa invasion is winding up now. [image]local://upfiles/8143/E11332DBFE9743A5B6A7CAECE7D44FA2.jpg[/image]

Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 3:37:42 PM)
Why don't you simply prep for the weakest coastal base and let your other units prep for the likely next invasions? Didn't you do this for the China invasion kind of?

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 3:49:01 PM)
Formosa is a different equation altogether. John has big garrisons at all of the big bases. It is likely that his units are highly prepped, so mine will need to be also to negate what otherwise could be a considerable advantage for him. John can also move his units around internally by rail to react to the invasion of a beachhead. IE, if I land at Taihoku, he can rail in troops from Takao and Taichu, thus beefing up his defenses considerably. So I want the flexibility of switching up on him. If he rails have his strength to Taihoku in response to an invasion, I can cross him up by moving a short distance to Taichu (or Takao and invading there). At that point, he loses the internal rail advantage and may have skewered himself. I may also use paratroops to try to mess up his rail capacity. I'm not confident in succeeding in that, because the paratroops might simply evaporate against a strong garrison, thus failing to create a "blockade" to stop rail movement. Formosa is a huge deal, as far as I'm concerned. It's worth doing big and doing right. After that, the opportunities to move deeper will be many, and I will select a location that isn't heavily defended, so that prep probably won't be as big an issue going forward (unless and until I target Japan proper).

jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 3:54:26 PM)
Maybe you can dangle the mini DS and/or one supply convoy as bait in order to draw the KB out for an engagement with the full DS. Think of your forces as Grendel and her mother. I freely confess to violating protocol for this AAR by omitting a Civil War analogy in favor of a far older one. [;)]

witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 4:11:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Why don't you simply prep for the weakest coastal base and let your other units prep for the likely next invasions? Didn't you do this for the China invasion kind of? +1 Even though preparation helps with combat, it makes the most difference for amphibious landings. Or are you planning to make landings in various places? Edit: Oops - answered already!

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 4:48:45 PM)
Flexibility. If John loads up at one beach, I can divert to another. The optimal thing would be for 100%-prepped troops to land and take a base; then all other units come ashore and advance to the bases they are prepped for. That'll minimize disablements and maximize combat power. Takao, Kagi, Taichu and Taihoku are all clear terrain. I have "armies" prepped for three of the four, so there I have some flexibility.

MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 4:51:51 PM)
Refresh memory.... for historical comparison where is your 1st Marine Division?

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 4:55:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel If I understand the helpful info from Bullwinkle, the 45k+ resources at Manila will yield about 3k supply. So the 450k+ resources in the central Philippines is good for about 30k supply, once transported to Manila. And it will take about 11 months for Manila's Light Industry to accomplish that. In other words, the war will be over by the time I can use the resources in the Philippines. And 33k supply total of 11 months is a minimal amount anyway. Five Liberty Ships (6500 supply) worth. Every little bit helps, but such quantities don't mean much. There may be other Light Industry locations (Hong Kong) that help out too. But I think the traditional ol' transport system (my long, narrow LOC) will handle the vast majority of the supply. As a coda . . . My original point was whether to repair damage or not. Given your restrictive HRs on bombing you likely will not find a lot of damage anywhere on the map you go. Perhaps some "base fall" damage from the Japanese expansion in 1942, but that's a random. In games where strat bombing is on from the start you might see a lot more. I have tried to hit Loka's economy as hard as I can spare. He might think it's been inconsequential, but I still do it. LI, however, is notoriously hard to damage from the air. That LI is not a great deal of supply is not the point. The point(s) are that 1) it's already local, 2) it's "free" in terms of Resources walking to it and not needing Fuel, and 3) you can't turn it off anyway. It's always on, by design. I look at it as maintenance supply. You can't build giant piles with it, but it can make enough to grocery up the garrison. Pay for CAP. Resources aren't fixed. They produce every turn. So you have a stream through your time horizon. If you want to set up CS barges or CS xAKL TFs you can. I'm not sure I'd bother there. But they're a one-time click fest and then done. LI is insurance. It's not life; it's the backstop. That's my main point.

Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 5:09:29 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn Refresh memory.... for historical comparison where is your 1st Marine Division? 1st Marine Division was destroyed in Sumatra a year ago. Rebuilt, two of the RCT took part in Big Tent and Third Ring. They are currently posted at Merauke and Bathurst Island. The third RCT remained in Hawaii, fully prepped for Eniwetok, for a long time. Now it's aboard vessels that are two or three days out of Horn Island. The three elements of 1st Marine Div. have trained into the upper 50s in experience and are all three prepping for an important target.

MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 5:18:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel quote: ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn Refresh memory.... for historical comparison where is your 1st Marine Division? 1st Marine Division was destroyed in Sumatra a year ago. Rebuilt, two of the RCT took part in Big Tent and Third Ring. They are currently posted at Merauke and Bathurst Island. The third RCT remained in Hawaii, fully prepped for Eniwetok, for a long time. Now it's aboard vessels that are two or three days out of Horn Island. The three elements of 1st Marine Div. have trained into the upper 50s in experience and are all three prepping for an important target. Thanks, I was looking and I'd remembered something had happen to it.

crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 5:19:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Hey, Ross, here's a semifinals bracket for you to fill out: Emmylou Harris __________________ vs. Linda Ronstadt __________________ and Stevie Nix _____________________ vs. Joan Baez ______________________ Emmylou vs Ronstadt is close but goes to Emmylou because she is a songwriter as well as a great singer. Joan over Stevie for the same reason, and because in the early 1970s I went to a concert of her's at Cole Field House at the University of Maryland. At the time she refused to allow the promoters to charge more than $2.50 for a ticket. God bless her. Emmylou vs Joan is no contest though. I have had a crush on Emmylou ever since I discovered her and Graham Parsons while listening to progressive radio in 1973 during the summer break from Maryland when I worked for the Praise the Lord Decorating Company. That in itself is another tale for another day. [;)]

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/8/2017 5:20:20 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent. These two statements are in opposition. Supply is "destroyed" by use. No to both. In this situation it's the wrong call, and supply is consumed by use, not destroyed. All I'm arguing is to secure production right here, with no time lag, where possible, while the supply pile is un-used by combat . . yet. I wouldn't repair LI in Melbourne. I would in HK. In Hong Kong you can set supply to stockpile and it will only leave the base to supply units within range. As an aside, that might be what Dan wants at the time. I really doubt that he will have so little transit able to bring supply to the China coast that his units there will starve. Here is a key point: any supply generated by repaired LI will also be pulled out to nourish nearby Chinese Army units. Bases do not retain any supply in the face of starving LCU calling for supply. At one time they did but they do not any longer. That change was made a long time ago. Before this fades into the AAR mists . . . Yeah, I beat them horses. Especially dead ones. At the risk of hijacking, a few more thoughts. This stuff might be better on the main, but I think CR likes to let the AAR go off track a bit, and this doesn't risk exposing a supply discussion to John. It's also pretty esoteric; after eight years those of us here from the beginning have beat most topics to death. Above, my choice of phrase "supply is 'destroyed' by use" was on purpose. The quote indicates I know it's not destroyed, but I could have worded it better. I meant it's not available for any other purpose. Not that its consumption has no utility. A supply pile at a base, say, here in China, has several uses. It can gross up the garrison LCUs' internal supply to required + 20 (where it stops.) It can fund combat operations in up to three dimensions (air, land, naval.) It can flow to neighboring bases. It can supply LCUs in the field. (You pointing this out was something I had not overtly considered.) It can build infrastructure. Or it can repair damaged industry. So, control now. Some of these paths can be stopped. Some can be regulated. Some are wide open and automatic. Flowing to field LCUs is the last, but only after other, earlier checked, uses for supply are satisfied. A garrison will take on supply before a distant field LCU so far as I know. I think an AF will be expanded first too. Not as sure of that. But ultimately, if there's enough supply, field LCUs--Chinese units here--will dip in. That can be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on the player's plans and the overall status of the theater. But I think it's true that the only way to prevent or minimize that flow to distant LCUs is to either burn up the supply 1) fighting with the garrison (or flying missions, or supplying TFs if a port), 2) building infrastructure, or 3) encapsulating 1000 points of supply per day in future industrial outflows, such as LI supply repair. Repairing LI captures supply in a very overt way and holds it local, to be used over the rest of the campaign. The ROI is bad, yes. But it's positive. Sending that 1000 supply to Chinese Corps X 30 hexes away (and losing some in transit) might be a better use, or it might not, depending on circumstances. Now, as I said to CR in another post, I'm under no illusions what local LI can do. The vast majority of Allied supply will come from far away, by ship. But local LI is an insurance policy. It doesn't need time, or fuel, or escorts, or player management to happen. In most cases it won't be damaged and it will produce by itself. It can't be turned off. If it is damaged usually it's only partly. If the damage is minor against the total it might not be worth repairing. And if the LI is located somewhere that shipborne supply is easy and safe, then the ROI takes precedence. But IMO it's incorrect to say "never repair LI." Sometimes you should. It's also important to point out that not everywhere with LI is China. LI production on Java or Sumatra, for example, is a different set of variables. Self-funding Java after it is taken makes a fair bit of sense, from a shipping POV as well as player task overhead. As an aside, outside LI repair, the questions of whether to repair other types of damage are even more interesting. For example, I would argue that without exception an Allied player should instantly repair any and all Shipyard damage, no matter location and no matter size. The ROI is instantaneous and significant, even if the yard can only fix subs and DDs. The question of repairing Oil or Refineries is more difficult. I would not repair Oil on Boela, for example. Northern Borneo? Probably yes, in 1944-45. The ROI on the supply is fairly nonsensical there. It's apples to oranges. The fleet freedom bought with a drink at Miri can't really be weighed against the supply lift equation from CONUS. They're measured in different units. Anyway, LI repair.

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