RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Mike McCreery -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 1:15:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Keeping track of Japan's mobile and powerful asset is always important, but especially so now for two reasons. The second reason is knowing whether KB might make things complicated around Formosa. The first I can't disclose until later - perhaps several weeks from now - but it's critical.


I am going to guess why. Let you know how that works out later ;]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 3:33:57 PM)

If John is leaving his carriers with good dl in the same spot for days on end he is violating every rule.[&:]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 6:16:55 PM)

So far it looks like John has been using his CVs to cover evacuations of troops from the DEI to reinforce Indochina. Why not the same with Babeldaob?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 7:51:35 PM)

9/7/44

Peep Show II: Major Allied attack tomorrow, as Allied army will cross river into a heavily-reinforced Kagi.

China: I think my read of the situation in China is correct - 32nd Div. should be able to make the coast along the preferred route. John has expended a lot of energy in hopes of trapping the unit but hasn't succeeded to this point. Today's maneuvering didn't help him.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/6F6CBAC00CA44FDC868A16467DA862AD.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 8:14:33 PM)

9/7/44

KB & The DEI: John's carriers are moving east for reasons unknown...and for reasons I'll leave unstated, this is causing a great disturbance in the force.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/40C903CE38EA44D4BAA7B299ACDF4E8E.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 11:50:33 PM)

9/08/44

Battle of Kagi: Allied shock attack simply destroys the sizeable enemy garrison - including two divisions and four brigades. Losses are immense for the Japanese army.

Significantly, the two IJA divisions here had been tasked with the defense of Takao until John moved them to Kagi the day before yesterday. That leaves Takao with one division (15th) and possibly a mixed brigade. Takao shouldn't stand a chance.

There's no question now what the outcome will be in Formosa.

John only sent the combat report and movie, so I don't have the actual turn yet. I'll post more later tonight or tomorrow, whenever John sends the turn. I don't think he'll be in a big hurry to do so. He may be in shock.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/620F56CD64E844C6A8AC059D39C767A8.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2017 11:58:08 PM)

9/8/44

Coastal China Maneuvering Engagement: John's stack attacks again at decent odds, but a US tank unit arrived, opening the SW hexside. I think 32nd Div. will cross the hexside tomorrow, but I won't know for certain until I have the turn file from John and can see what's where and how many miles 32nd Div. has accumulated in it's move to the SW.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/0BC8FC25BCA145B0ADCCF473E37120B2.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 3:22:45 AM)

You had TDs and Tanks at Kagi, and I don't see any anti-tank units in his OOB. No wonder his troops broke and were routed. Open terrain is your friend!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:05:32 AM)



[image]local://upfiles/8143/A98047211EC843AEAFD6561E4910F1FD.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:40:31 AM)

9/8/44

Strategic Map: The Empire is nearly divided, but the wall of separation has holes. When Death Star is committed in places like Formosa, John can move through to and fro via the Celebes Sea region.

What Happens Next: It may take three or four weeks, but the decision in Formosa shouldn't be in question any more.

What happens after Formosa? I've said before that the Allies will transition from a purely military focus to a hybrid military/gaming focus. Harvesting victory points will become a priority equal to - and sometimes driving - military considerations.

In a week or less, I'll finally initiate a regular strategic bombing campaign. The Formosa airfields have the supply and the security to permit this.

John may expect me to come for the Home Islands now, but I'm looking at a China campaign via land and an amphibious campaign (with Death Star) targeting high value targets in the DEI - Singers, Palembang, Balikpapan, Soerabaja, etc.

These things aren't written in stone, but that's been the working plan for more than a year.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/3023E0DC0F69426EB2D6240E82BED88B.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 5:50:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/8/44

Strategic Map: The Empire is nearly divided, but the wall of separation has holes. When Death Star is committed in places like Formosa, John can move through to and fro via the Celebes Sea region.


That is one major green arrow into the heart of the Japanese position. Nicely done.

quote:


What Happens Next: It may take three or four weeks, but the decision in Formosa shouldn't be in question any more.

What happens after Formosa? I've said before that the Allies will transition from a purely military focus to a hybrid military/gaming focus. Harvesting victory points will become a priority equal to - and sometimes driving - military considerations.

In a week or less, I'll finally initiate a regular strategic bombing campaign. The Formosa airfields have the supply and the security to permit this.


Consider large manpower raids at night on Osaka and Tokyo to start off. You'll be surprised how long these burn. Especially if he's not stacked AA and NF in those bases. Also, hitting individual big airframe plants at places that will be less defended, like Gifu and Maebashi will yield very good results usually.

Both yokohama and Hiroshima/Kure have silly numbers of 12.7cm DP guns that are some of the best the Japanese have. Be wary of those bases compared to other good industrial targets. Hitting large airfields used for training is also not a bad way to get some points and frustrate your opponent. You'll be in range of Manchuria which has some great potential targets of all kinds, especially Mukden, Anshan and Harbin.

This is a great time to start really hitting the HI and taking out his favourite toys. [;)]

quote:


John may expect me to come for the Home Islands now, but I'm looking at a China campaign via land and an amphibious campaign (with Death Star) targeting high value targets in the DEI - Singers, Palembang, Balikpapan, Soerabaja, etc.

These things aren't written in stone, but that's been the working plan for more than a year.



It'd be fun to surprisingly "encircle" the KB down there. He's been keeping it again visible and in harm's way. You'll gain a lot of points either way, if he uses it or if he tries to flee and leaves the area open for amphibious ops.

Still following happily! A fun game to have watched all these years![&o]



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 8:28:12 AM)

so roughly 1,200 squads destroyed against your 10. That is staggering



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 12:30:43 PM)

Late war Allied firepower, forget AV comparisons.

I'm thinking Chosen might be a nice place to visit.



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 1:39:26 PM)

That SigIntelReport looks bad, been hanging around the troops from Georgia?

[image]local://upfiles/55056/2DD0FC32E9D44E4D99DF6F95A593EDD3.jpg[/image]



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 1:43:50 PM)

Any chance John had of slowing you down on Formosa evaporated with those troop losses - that is a significant defeat for him.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 2:32:48 PM)

John still has 155k troops on Formosa, but Kagi was so bad that I think he may have switched from reinforcing (by air transport) to withdrawing (by air and fast transport).

A page or two back, crsutton explained why he often/usually bypasses Formosa. Originally, Formosa didn't figure into my plans. The plan was Luzon then coastal China then points north. Many things factored into my change of mind, which took place perhaps six months ago. Formosa has excellent airfields in proximity to Japan. Taking it would clean up a key part of my LOC. And John was reinforcing an island with open terrain close to Luzon's airfields. I was pretty sure that the 185k enemy troops on Formosa wore signs saying "Victims. Come Get Us." unless John committed KB and fought hard enough to complicate what seemed like a straightforward mathematical calculation.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 3:42:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/08/44

Battle of Kagi: Allied shock attack simply destroys the sizeable enemy garrison - including two divisions and four brigades. Losses are immense for the Japanese army.

Significantly, the two IJA divisions here had been tasked with the defense of Takao until John moved them to Kagi the day before yesterday. That leaves Takao with one division (15th) and possibly a mixed brigade. Takao shouldn't stand a chance.

There's no question now what the outcome will be in Formosa.

John only sent the combat report and movie, so I don't have the actual turn yet. I'll post more later tonight or tomorrow, whenever John sends the turn. I don't think he'll be in a big hurry to do so. He may be in shock.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/620F56CD64E844C6A8AC059D39C767A8.jpg[/image]


It is the tanks. Japanese units have little or no AT defense so the tanks really make a big difference. God help them if the terrain is open terrain.



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 3:44:10 PM)



After taking Formosa, isn't anything other than Japan "just fondling the goat"? Playing the Japan tune may be the only way to get KB to dance with you.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:12:56 PM)

From a military standpoint, a good argument can be made that attending to northern China and/or Korea makes as much sense (maybe more) than Japan at this point in the game.

From a gaming standpoint, the time has come for victory points to weigh heavily in every decision - not overriding military strategy but complementing it and sometimes directing it. From a VP standpoint it makes sense to attend to the DEI even while attending to China and/or Korea and while ramping up strategic bombing.

There is going to be a bit of a lull from the "push forward intensely" program anyhow, as logistics becomes priority one. Supply levels forward are adequate, but 75% of my ships are forward and sitting empty at Manila or with Death Star (having delivered the Formosa package). It's time to send 500 ships home and that requires security. But it's not purely security. The plan will also entail attending to some LOC issues and some important target-DEI issues.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:21:55 PM)

9/9/44

BB Ise: The day dawned with USN sub Sterlet putting three TT into Ise. The BB didn't show heavy damage - heck, she's not even blowing smoke - so I'd guess modere- to moderately-heavy damage - 40s to 60s.

Allied sub scores have been exceedingly rare the past four to six months, so this one was worth noting.

Ise has been participating in the Japanese counterinvasion of Vinh and bombardments of Haiphong.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/97320AFC7C204AB4B529AAC67CDBFC4D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:30:34 PM)

9/9/44

Escaping the Ambush: 32nd Division and the "rescuing" tank battalion clear the ambush hex and entered a hex controlled (except west hexside) by 93rd USA Division. This little army is now safe and will make Amoy in a few days.

John put a lot of hope and effort into creating this ambush and thought he had it set right.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/A9311AA1CFA64B4AA2E92509C3D0AABC.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:48:30 PM)

9/9/44

Peep Show II & SEAC

[image]local://upfiles/8143/D79B6761F21E4C01A0620BA454AE6D2B.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:52:38 PM)

quote:

From a VP standpoint it makes sense to attend to the DEI even while attending to China and/or Korea and while ramping up strategic bombing.


Not trying to make you give up the secret recipe, just wanting to know more about the cooking. If John has been "tending the garden" I would guess that a invasion of Japan will be costly to the Allies, and getting every low hanging VP first would be prudent. The strategic bombing will be interesting to watch in terms of VPs and the actually impact on both sides.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 4:57:46 PM)

If he's trying to pull troops off of the beaches there, you should have more than enough surface combatants to pull his teeth pretty well.

And if John moves forward to the Coast, he's going to get clobbered - but he has the overarching fetish to be killing something every turn - so I would even expect that he's going to attack the Kiwi's too.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 5:02:11 PM)

9/9/44

KB Division & DEI: John is committing a KB division to countermeasures at Darwin? Two USN subs clashed with his carrier TF today, to no effect.

Sometime ago, I commented that John doesn't fight where I expect him to fight (Luzon/China/Formosa) and fights where I don't expect him to fight.

Darwin is a superb example of the latter. Nothing that happens here - the Japanese overwhelming the little Allied units or the Allies somehow standing firm - matters in the least. This is and has been a sideshow for a year. Eventually I'll bring the assets needed to attend to this sector of the LOC properly. Until then, every enemy carrier committed here isn't fighting someplace significant.

I understand John's thinking - Darwin is manageable and relatively low risk; and he's working the VP angle hard. But militarily this is a chasing of chimera.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/39E576D5A53B4BF8B67F055386081C37.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 7:46:51 PM)

I'm not sure why you feel Darwin is John's most likely target. From the map, it appears he could be trying to take back part of the DEI to close your LOC. Ambon and the base NW of it are right next to KB, and he may be bringing up troops from OZ for the job? Isn't there also a contested hex on an island just west of Ambon?
If he loaded up his CVs with fighters he would be looking to try and remove your air threat from Boela by getting them to attack or even just suck in the fighter CAP.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 7:55:24 PM)

The give and take, ebb and flow, of things I'm seeing - including during combat replays - suggests Darwin is the target.

Places like Ambon, Boela, Sorong, and Moratai would be targets of value to him, but the first four are too strongly held - he has zero chance of taking them. He would have a chance at Morotai, but even that would be tough.

There are smaller islands lightly held, but there are a zillion of them, so taking one or two is not going to help him in any material way.

I've always fretted over Boela's susceptibility to bombardment followed by massed air strike. But he's going to by shy about that - the base has mines, subs, a few combat TFs and 400 fighters. He can crack the safe but he could also get nipped badly in doing so.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/3/2017 10:50:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/9/44

BB Ise: The day dawned with USN sub Sterlet putting three TT into Ise. The BB didn't show heavy damage - heck, she's not even blowing smoke - so I'd guess modere- to moderately-heavy damage - 40s to 60s.

Allied sub scores have been exceedingly rare the past four to six months, so this one was worth noting.

Ise has been participating in the Japanese counterinvasion of Vinh and bombardments of Haiphong.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/97320AFC7C204AB4B529AAC67CDBFC4D.jpg[/image]


It is 4 to six months in the repair yard, at this stage that is a big help.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/4/2017 12:02:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/9/44

Escaping the Ambush: 32nd Division and the "rescuing" tank battalion clear the ambush hex and entered a hex controlled (except west hexside) by 93rd USA Division. This little army is now safe and will make Amoy in a few days.

John put a lot of hope and effort into creating this ambush and thought he had it set right.



You may not know this, but the Allies always get 1 free day of movement with no movement ticks showing up. It makes your mobile troops really dangerous because they can often move before Japan spots the danger.



CaptBeefheart -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/4/2017 5:15:25 AM)

Lowpe, you're just full of useful information. I bow in your general direction, Sir. [&o]

Cheers,
CC



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