RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 12:48:04 AM)

I'll find out soon enough. If weather permits, I set three or four squadrons to hit Kagoshima at 2k. If my squadrons get eaten alive, I'll blame lokasenna.



Kofiman -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 9:51:01 AM)

That's not quite the way fire reports work, IIRC. The fire number for an attack is the total amount of fire present, and individual attacks add to it, but don't start from zero.

That's still a lot of fires, but it's not 200k.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 11:21:29 AM)

Dan, how many B-29's do you have and what do reinforcements look like? If you did this much damage with a handful of planes one wonders what 100 might do



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 11:21:35 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kofiman

That's not quite the way fire reports work, IIRC. The fire number for an attack is the total amount of fire present, and individual attacks add to it, but don't start from zero.

That's still a lot of fires, but it's not 200k.


Dead on correct. Plus there is Fog of War in the fires number too. I think you missed a golden opportunity here, if in fact Osaka was protected by a half dozen night fighters as seems the case.

Osaka is the 2nd greatest target when considering Japan's industrial supply generation, and its huge manpower numbers means fires are ridiculously easy to start.

The weather was harsh on your strikes, and the Japanese seem to be flying at uniform altitudes which you can take advantage of.

For a well defended base like Nagasaki, I like your mixing up of altitudes...but instead of hitting Kanoya you should have hit adjacent targets to Nagasaki in an attempt to get his night time CAP to bleed over to less important bases. You can take advantage of this by watching and understanding the time to target for different heavy bomber models and using the bombers with faster arrival times to hit the less important bases adjacent to the primary strike.

You can see by the attached graphic, that Tokyo and Osaka are by far and away the most important supply generators for Japan and the most vulnerable to fires. Consequently, they should be the most heavily protected which doesn't seem to be the case here.

Of course, there are so many more things that can be targeted from engine, plane, vehicle, shipyards, to oil, refineries, and even resources. There is one hex that has close to 1000 resource production...and that is an easy 2000 vp.

You need to decide the goal of your strategic bombing...general vp generation, destruction of the supply generation of Japan, destruction of the plane or engine building, destruction of vehicles/armaments industry...or even specifically destroying Japan's fighter or night fighter production capability.

So many choices and all of them viable...to different degrees.

A quick word about the Nicks and Irvings you are facing. They are first generation NF...and you can wear them out very easily as quite frankly there aren't enough squadrons of them. I haven't checked the map and counted hexes, but since you hit Harbin...threatening or bombing Port Arthur, Mudken, Heijo, Fusan, Keijo will further stretch Japan's night fighting strength.

B29s stretch the night fighters, and the B24s & company do the real punishment. Don't forget you can make city attacks even with Avengers too.

I hope you are getting an idea for where the AA concentrations are for future raid planning plus formulating your overall strategic bombing goals/tactics/direction.




[image]local://upfiles/44178/418CA87724D649F58F7F9E2DC5BEF978.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 1:16:23 PM)

"...you missed a golden opportunity..."

That implies that I should have known better and/or that I should have done more.

I was pretty sure that Osaka was lightly guarded. Given several weeks of good reconnaissance, I knew he didn't have many fighters there. That could have changed at any moment, as the recon should have tipped John's hand to my interest in the base. It turned out that he didn't increase his CAP so that the recon was good. But I knew the importance of the base and its apparent vulnerability.

I moved forward as many B-29s as my forward bases could reasonably hold, and all the B-29s were targeted on Osaka. I did all I could under the current limitations: Foochow supply is too low (7k) for 4EB and I overloaded Taichu in order to get a strike in (and that strike took five turns before it flew, due to weather).

My priority for now is Manpower, Resources and Victory Points. My thinking, at this early point, is that Victory Points offers the quickest and most direct route to victory. So, as noted earlier, getting a big airfield within B-24J range of Kyushu and southern Honshu is my highest priority. Hence the pending operation to take Ningpo.

This turn, 100k supply and additional aviation support will come ashore at Taichu, which has an 8.3 airfield. These changes will probably allow me to bring forward from Manila all of the remaining B-29s.

So while I'm inexperienced in the late game and in strategic bombing, I'm not sitting here without an idea what to do.







Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 1:38:16 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, how many B-29's do you have and what do reinforcements look like? If you did this much damage with a handful of planes one wonders what 100 might do


I probably have more than 100 B-29s at the moment. The improved, nighttime version comes online in December (six weeks), I believe.

Some of you will recall that I lost 35+ B-29s over Singapore months and months back. That wiped out my reserves. The reserves were built back up to about 20, but a few recent raids with high flak losses now have those numbers back down to about 7. So I'll have to be careful in using my Superforts. I don't want to fritter them away. I'm using them, but their real utility should come when the B-24s (and some fighters) draw within range. Then the combination of fighters and bombers should really make things tough for John.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 5:04:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

2K feet is best for damage.


Bad for balloons.

Firebombing I usually do 8, 9, 10, or 11k. Accuracy not as important.


I disagree.

More hits = more better.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 5:06:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll find out soon enough. If weather permits, I set three or four squadrons to hit Kagoshima at 2k. If my squadrons get eaten alive, I'll blame lokasenna.


You should be somewhat mindful of balloons. If the base size is high enough (I think port + AF greater than 6), then balloons will be present at 6K feet or less. Sometimes I avoid them, sometimes I don't. I don't have any hard and fast rule for doing so - I just do it by feel.

Extremely heavy flak can also be deadly. But if you can take the losses and think you'll get a higher ROI (lose 10 planes = 20 VPs, cause 300 VPs in damage vs. lose 4 planes = 8 VPs, cause 100 VPs in damage)...



Lecivius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 5:12:22 PM)

FWIW (not much) I have lost a ton of bombers over Rabaul to those darned balloons. After that, I always fly at 7k at night. Maybe the damage isn't there, but neither are those things [:@]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 5:53:23 PM)

10/15/44

Naval Battle of Pescadores: John pulled the trigger, sending in two good combat TFs to tangle with the host of Allied shipping between Formosa and China; I don't know if he was specifically targeting the landing at Pescadores or shipping at Taichu or something else. But his TFs ran afoul of a host of Allied combat TFs and never made it through these powerful screening forces.

The outcome was a serious setback for the Japanese navy. From the movie the defeat appeared far more dramatic than from a simple tally of the Combat Report (appended below). I think he lost (permanently or long term) three of the four capital ships he committed. He's already shy on both kinds of cruisers, he got a good look at many of my combat TFs, and I do think this left him with little he'd be willing to commit in the next few days.

With KB South and East already far away, my main concern for Fancy Pants was an all-out enemy naval attack possibly combined with kamikazes. The more those threats diminish, the freer I am to move forward. This clash increases the likelihood that the invasion of Ningpo will take place in the short term. And if the Allies continue to prevail, the likelihood of an invasion of Korea increases (an Allied army is already 80% prepped).

John's body language also indicate that he didn't like the outcome of this battle. I think this - and other things - made it a tough day for him. More later.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/93A57C53A40B4744B09B3A90CFA28488.jpg[/image]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 5:59:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

2K feet is best for damage.


Bad for balloons.

Firebombing I usually do 8, 9, 10, or 11k. Accuracy not as important.


I disagree.

More hits = more better.


Of course more hits is more better. Except when measured against more flak hits or more balloon hits. Doubling hits while losing the entire strike force is not better. Or, maybe, it's better once.

Firebombing is area bombing. It's not hitting a factory. Going above the balloons and flak is a high ROI. Fighters are the issue, but B-29s are uber-fast, and the early models have higher gun ratings than B-24s. Overall, ops losses kill more B-29s than A-to-A losses. Reducing balloon and flak damage and thus ops losses is a key objective to using B-29s. The SR is also an issue with damage. They're thoroughbreds, not plow horses. They have to be taken care of.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 6:03:53 PM)

10/15/44

Raid on Osaka: The Superfort raid of the 14th continues to pay dividends on the 15th, as fires do significant additional damage.

Note: Osaka detection has been at 9 for weeks, but is now dropping due to the Liberator recon squadron needing repairs. I'll attend to that.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/A14C1B99833A4E19889D6807C9541832.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 6:10:30 PM)

10/15/44

Raid on Maebashi: Most B-29s rested today, but a small raid against Manpower at this base just west of Tokyo scored some hits.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/B99DFE5BBA2040779A3CA5CF2DBF1329.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 6:29:49 PM)

10/15/44

Fancy Pants: The invasion of Pescadores is off to a good start. More importantly, the delivery of supply is underway and I'm beginning to drop off and pick up the units to take part in the invasion of Ningpo and the ground campaign from there and/or from the Foochow/Amoy region.

I've long said that the Allied strategy was frontloaded - incurring heavy casualties early in order to achieve an advantageous position late. I think that's what's about to happen: I have a huge navy that can quickly replenish at Formosa; I have huge stockpile of supply and aviation support that's coming ashore at Formosa to allow a goodly part of the Allied air force to move here as of today; and the Allied army is in position to move into China (and possibly then into Korea).

If I'm right, the dividends will start coming in. In fact, I think they've started over the past few days, with the naval clash and the successful bombing runs.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/EE705354FE4B41F7A9C5C9EB06C2B359.jpg[/image]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 6:43:16 PM)

When you've got coastal China bases AND all of Formosa, it's whack-a-mole time for him even if he can bombard. And you aren't going to allow that.

The HI damage you did at Osaka was significant. The pilot tax really bites in the last year, and the more you can make him hit his HI bank the better. Once you can pull B-24s onto Formosa in numbers it's going to get ugly for him real fast. B-24s ARE plow horses. Bomb trucks.

I don't think Lowpe was critical up-thread. He has a lot of experience with strat bombing, and made me think about some points I had not. A big key is not to be predictable.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 6:49:48 PM)

10/15/44

DEI: All shipping is properly in place to handle greatly increased supply delivery to the DEI (and eventually to Luzon). This enhanced LOC will suffice through the end of the war.

KB South and East: Continuing to tend to enemy merchant shipping.

Victory Points: The Allies have a 10k lead now - something like 76k to 66k. I commenced the strategic bombing campaign around Sept. 15, so it's been going on a month now. I've gotten 3,400 points, perhaps a third of that over the past two days. With air ops from Formosa about to increase significantly, I expect strategic bombing VPs to increase markedly in the next month. But the biggest boost will come if I take Ningpo and build its airfield large. (John's engineers are at work there and recently increased the level to two.)


[image]local://upfiles/8143/700115BD103C45CA8BCC8C6D3ABD1964.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 7:10:00 PM)

Only one of those KB segments has a decent amount of escort against SCTFs. If you ever confront with DS you could overwhelm them with SCTFs prior to the air engagement. More possibilities ... but first you have strategic bombing bases to secure!



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 8:40:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Reducing balloon and flak damage and thus ops losses is a key objective to using B-29s. The SR is also an issue with damage. They're thoroughbreds, not plow horses. They have to be taken care of.


I did mismanage my first B-29s, so acknowledge I'm no expert on them in particular. I was speaking mostly to night bombing in general. If my planes can take the anticipated damage, I would rather fly in at 2K than 7K. Model-specific concerns would factor into that if-statement.

As to this:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Overall, ops losses kill more B-29s than A-to-A losses


That depends on the planes being used in the defense, of course. Zeroes and Tonys don't do a whole lot. Franks do. I've had a few days where I lost double digit B-29s to A2A.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 8:42:26 PM)

Make a note of those Frank-b factory sizes. Wait until you think he might not have that hex very protected, and then nail them. Making a note of the factory sizes allows you to hit them even if your recon drops off and they begin showing as "Aircraft Factory" again instead of Frank-b.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 8:54:17 PM)

10/15/44

Opportunity Missed:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Wenchow at 89,60

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
TBM-1C Avenger x 5

Allied aircraft losses
TBM-1C Avenger: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Chikuma, heavy damage
CA Tone

As noted previously, I have my carrier aircraft configured heavily towards defense. Range is currently set for two. These naked cruisers would've been easy pickings - no CAP! - but they were three or four hexes away (I musta left a TBM squadron at longer range, by accident).

I'm erring here on the side of staying power. I don't want to lose 300 aircraft to some massive CAP trap over Shanghai or a worthless enemy TF near Wenchow, etc. I'll miss the occasional tidbit but my carriers will stay fresh and able to do what needs to be done. It really would've felt good to nail Chikuma and Tone, but shepherding my resources to allow for the invasion of Ningpo and a offensive in China is far more important.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 8:56:04 PM)

I know now why I felt like the naval battle went better than the posted combat report excerpt showed: there were several daytime clashes between crippled IJ destroyers and strong Allied TFs. On the day, one enemy DD confirmed sunk and possibly/probably two more. Those in addition to the two CLs sunk and Chikuma crippled. It was a pretty good outcome.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 9:29:46 PM)

It's hard in this game (AE) to swing the whole model away from naval and onto strat bombing. But you win that way. Defense is the way to go. Asset preservation. Protecting the airfields. You can win without sinking another one of his ships. It goes strongly against your inclinations and what you like to do, but it's truth. You have 3000 VPs in next to no time from bombing. That will accelerate. How many ships is 3000 VPs? Let him dink around. It just doesn't matter to the horse when the fly lands on his neck.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 9:37:50 PM)

That sums it up.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 10:23:33 PM)

Focusing on strat bombing and its needs also vastly reduces clicks and time per turn. Not a nothing issue for the Allies in late 1944.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/31/2017 10:26:59 PM)

Interesting summation on Wikipedia on the bombing of Japan. Links within to more detail. Once the Allies figured out that night fire bombing was the way to go things took off. In March 1945 274 B-29's took out an 8 mile chunk of Osaka. That's a lot of fires https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_raids_on_Japan



CaptBeefheart -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (8/1/2017 3:04:13 AM)

I just caught up after a two-week hiatus back Stateside. Great stuff, as usual.

It's not for nothing that Nimitz favored a Ningpo invasion for a while. With the limitation on Okinawa airfield size, taking Ningpo is not a bad option in this game. How strongly are Ningpo and the base to the left of it being held at the moment?

EDIT: Interesting game in that your supply line isn't fully secure but that it doesn't matter. Great example of making excellent progress despite minimal supplies at the front.

Cheers,
CC



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (8/1/2017 7:31:59 PM)

10/16/44

Pescadores falls, Mitchells tear into vulnerable enemy infantry stacks on the China coast, and most of Japan lit up by recon. It was a busy and fun turn.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E8F8C425BC14423CA73F3E93586833AA.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (8/2/2017 12:25:02 AM)

I thought Pescadores would fall quickly after all the beatings and starvation. How big is the Repair Shipyard? Anything that will take a heavy cruiser is golden!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (8/2/2017 5:48:41 AM)

10/17/44

Late night as I went to my first Atlanta Braves game at the new stadium. I did this for a friend, as I don't like going to sporting events and hate traffic and the Atlanta area. I was surprised to find that the new stadium is very nice. I enjoyed the game, which the Braves lost 3-2. That was my first professional sporting event in about 19 years. It'll probably be that long before I attend another one.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/83DCE6A1A6BF4921BB45E3E0377E90E1.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (8/2/2017 12:40:34 PM)

10/18/44

Yesterday my wife and I celebrated our 30th wedding anniversary. This is a noteworthy achievement in my family, where marriages are usually measured in hours. We celebrated this way: she spent most of the day and all night with her elderly, ailing aunt in a nearby hospital; I went to the Braves game with friends; and we had lunch at a local BBQ restaurant, joined by a 94-year-old poet/writer whose hubby was a pilot in the PI at the start of the war, one brother was on the Tennessee at Pearl Harbor, and another brother was a paratrooper who got injured and transferred to Patton's tanks. It was a busy, boisterous day that was fun.

Peep Show: Enemy garrison on Hengchun should disappear in a few more days. That will bring Peep Show to an end.

Fancy Pants: Two or three more days to load ground troops bound for Ningpo. Mitchells refuse to fly, so no ground support missions near Amoy (darn it). Allied armored battalions to attack enemy stack tomorrow. No enemy harassment of Death Star.

Strategic War: decent raids on Kagoshima, Kobe, Niigata.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/772FACFB0DEF48F48F9752DAFF31EFC4.jpg[/image]



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