RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (Full Version)

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Lowpe -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/26/2014 7:28:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JocMeister quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Can you put some theater pictures up? Hopefully tomorrow. Just arrived at the hospital. [:(] The SOPAC/OZ area I think you are all pretty familiar with as I posted lots of screens. I own all bases in NOPAC but only have troops on a couple of bases Tom has only token forces in CENTPAC. Rowboats corps has taken most of the bases for him. He has Wake. He has all of Burma including the Adamans. China is toast. I might be able to hang on to the three mountain bases. But its unlikely if he really wants them. I have the line islands. I have all of India including the island in the IO and Ceylon. Lower DEI, Burma I was primarily interested in.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/26/2014 7:34:25 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Lower DEI, Burma I was primarily interested in. Well, he has it all. [:)]

Lowpe -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/26/2014 7:41:11 PM)
Darwin?

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/26/2014 7:50:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Darwin? Still in allied control but cut off and isolated.

Lowpe -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/26/2014 8:19:25 PM)
Beer or Prayer.[:)] I guess a lot depends if you plan on stopping if AV is achieved or not. If yes you will concede, then you are free to try any hare brained scheme to get victory points.

krishub1492 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/26/2014 9:52:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: ny59giants Watching your American subs until 1/43 can put a big stress on your heart. You never know if they are actually going to do their job. [:(] I guess the best thing to do is have a frame of mind that anything they actually damage or sink is a bonus until '43. Even the reduction in the dud rate on 1/1/43 is too low. And 1942 is simply fantasy. JFBs have no, none, zero fear of USN subs in 1942. In reality, in JANAC records (post-war assessment using Japanese records; far lower than in-war CO claims), USN (no Dutch or RN) subs sank 133.5 Japanese ships in 1942 for 552, 472 tons. Of that total, 14 of those ships were sunk by S-class subs. The rest were fleet boats. Can anybody come close to matching that in the game? How many times has a Japan economic primer said "Immediately turn off all merchant construction. You already have plenty."? By the time subs actually work, in late 1943, JFBs have huge HI stocks, big Arms and Vehicle stocks, and are using the Magic Highway across Asia to avoid having to drive tankers all the way home. Nerfing subs makes the game skew hard to an air war game, and not a naval game as it should be. I doubt the devs, or GG, had any idea JFBs would be as inventive as they have become. But leaving the dud rate at 12/7/41 levels for thirteen months is wrong, and it has big effects. Same as the very high escort-targeting rate versus targeting the merchants primarily, which was also the case in RL. And the sub war, except for the initial dud rate, is buried in the EXE, including the dates of dud rate reduction. It's sad that so many people play this game and come away with the idea it was all about airplanes. Rhetorical question. Would it work better to use the "Reliable USN Torpedoes" option but edit the scenario to reduce the number of US fleet boats that are available early in the game? You could add them later as reinforcements to bring the sub OB up to historical values sometime in 1943.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 5:16:00 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Beer or Prayer.[:)] I guess a lot depends if you plan on stopping if AV is achieved or not. If yes you will concede, then you are free to try any hare brained scheme to get victory points. I´m probably not going to play on if Tom wins by AV. And looking at the numbers I´m kind of thinking it might be time to hoist the white flag now rather then face the inevitable in 6 months. Need to take a good look at the map when I get home.

Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 5:47:49 AM)
Is it too late to run for the hills in China?

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 6:15:37 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Is it too late to run for the hills in China? I´ve already done that with most of the troops. I only have small rear guard around Changsha and around 1500 AV at Chungking. Most of the troops there are respawns. Problem is I´m not going to be able to hold him in the mountains. He shocked across the river East of Chegthe (?) with minimal losses and is now causing 300-600 casualties per day with bombardments. Turns out troops don´t dig forts without supply and I don´t need to tell you the supply situation! [:D]

Barb -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 6:19:39 AM)
Sorry for the Sara - just two torpedoes? Hell of a bad luck there! Well you have some options - to continue playing regardless of AV, to surrender at AV, or throw in the towel... I personally would like to see you carry on. At least if you think you are going to throw in the towel, you can arrange an enormous "all-in" battle in the South Pacific. You can loose your fleet, but it would be at least a spectacular "last-ditch" effort [;)]

obvert -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 6:23:22 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JocMeister quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Beer or Prayer.[:)] I guess a lot depends if you plan on stopping if AV is achieved or not. If yes you will concede, then you are free to try any hare brained scheme to get victory points. I´m probably not going to play on if Tom wins by AV. And looking at the numbers I´m kind of thinking it might be time to hoist the white flag now rather then face the inevitable in 6 months. Need to take a good look at the map when I get home. You had this feeling three times when we played, yet you played on. I hope you agree that it was worth it then. I thin it will be in this game too. Stick it out! [:)]

Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 6:42:53 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JocMeister quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Is it too late to run for the hills in China? I´ve already done that with most of the troops. I only have small rear guard around Changsha and around 1500 AV at Chungking. Most of the troops there are respawns. Problem is I´m not going to be able to hold him in the mountains. He shocked across the river East of Chegthe (?) with minimal losses and is now causing 300-600 casualties per day with bombardments. Turns out troops don´t dig forts without supply and I don´t need to tell you the supply situation! [:D] Why stop at the mountains? Run them all the way to India - the Promised Land of Plentiful Supply! He won't be able to stop them all. And even if Chinese infantry are crap, there's still a certain weight to their numbers. Not to mention that they can be used to garrison the cities while your Indian units go off to fight...

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 7:02:53 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Barb Sorry for the Sara - just two torpedoes? Hell of a bad luck there! Well you have some options - to continue playing regardless of AV, to surrender at AV, or throw in the towel... I personally would like to see you carry on. At least if you think you are going to throw in the towel, you can arrange an enormous "all-in" battle in the South Pacific. You can loose your fleet, but it would be at least a spectacular "last-ditch" effort [;)] Thanks, I´m not sure what to think. I mean if we play on but Tom has burnt himself out achieving AV whats the point? He must have used an incredible amount of fuel operating like he has in SOPAC. Perhaps its time to talk to him. quote: ORIGINAL: obvert You had this feeling three times when we played, yet you played on. I hope you agree that it was worth it then. I thin it will be in this game too. Stick it out! [:)] Ah, but this is a little bit different. [:)] We never played for VPs. I don´t for a second doubt my ability to "win the war" eventually. But I don´t think there is any hope of avoiding AV on 1/1/43. And I´m not sure I want to continue playing when/if Tom achieves AV. I mean if he does he has won and I´m not sure I see the point in playing on. We already know how it will end eventually. [:)] quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Why stop at the mountains? Run them all the way to India - the Promised Land of Plentiful Supply! He won't be able to stop them all. And even if Chinese infantry are crap, there's still a certain weight to their numbers. Not to mention that they can be used to garrison the cities while your Indian units go off to fight... PPs to cross border...Only a fraction of the Chinese units are not perm restricted. If I could have moved them all to India I would have done so on day 1. [:)]

aztez -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 9:09:40 AM)
A good reminder why I do not play for "points". Those things will become more importnat than the game itself and just cloud your judgement! [:)] You really should still throw all the LBA, mass surface assets and carriers in all out of attack againts IJN if you guys are going forfeit the game. Who knows with good dice rolls you might come victorious. Anyway.. if you heart is not in the game than best to discuss with your opponent. Next time forget the Autovictory points etc. Those things will do no good for fighting spirit and just the opposite. Good luck whatever you two deciede...

boajack -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 9:11:12 AM)
Keep fighting. As allies you can not lose.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 9:29:26 AM)
Talked a bit to Tom this morning. He says he wants to continue playing despite the looming AV and that his economy havn´t suffered unduly because of the AV objective. I guess we will play on for now. But I´m going to shift focus from gaining VPs to winning the war. Two very different things. I think I have some interesting stuff planned. Time to make Tom pay for going "all in" in SOPAC and not guarding the back door properly. [:)]

paullus99 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 9:34:52 AM)
Good idea - though I'm not sure about his talk about not going for AV, when all of his actions at this point (including burning down the Australian industry) have been nothing but aimed at increasing his point total for AV.....weird.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 10:11:13 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: paullus99 Good idea - though I'm not sure about his talk about not going for AV, when all of his actions at this point (including burning down the Australian industry) have been nothing but aimed at increasing his point total for AV.....weird. Ah, Tom has never said he is not going for AV. He has been going for AV from day 1 just as I have been trying to avoid it. I think he succeeded and I failed. If he didn´t want to play on after a potential AV I would have considering surrendering so not to waste 6 months on a lost cause. But since Tom wants to play on we might as well play on and see where this ends. There is still a very slim chance I can avoid AV although its very unlikely. But I´m not going to gut myself trying to avoid it. Instead I´m going to do something that will gain me very little VPs but could shorten the war by a year or even more. From a VP perspective its a stupid move though. [:)]

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 10:54:06 AM)
First draft ______________________________________________________________________________ This is sort of first rough draft on an operation. I have yet to make a real OOB for operation and go into details of it. This is kind of a foolish operation but if I can smash PB the war will be over very shortly. I wouldn´t even consider this under any normal circumstances but Toms insane investment in SOPAC with all the navy and the bulk of Japanese IDs deep in SOPAC gives me a decent chance of success. From SIGINT it actually looks like he will try to counterinvade Fiji! [X(] Once the KB starts moving from Noumea/Fiji I should have at least 10-15 days before they arrive around Sumatra. And depending on the situation in SOPAC he may not be able to move the KB out without stranding the IDs needed for Sumatra. It might be weeks before he can even move the KB out as he may need it to extract troops from the area. If I can time this with him counter landing on Fiji it could buy me 2-4 weeks while he lifts the troops out under KB cover. If he don´t he will lose the troops. I think speed will be key here. I already sent the fleet on their way. They will refuel, meet up with the AP/AKs and head for the IO. First troops have started prepping and moving for extraction. I´m a bit worried about lift capacity. I would like to land with possible as much as 6 IDs + armor in the first days. Very optimistic estimate will be 60 days. More realistic 100 days. And to make things clear: I´m not counting on getting the troops out. If I can thats great. But I´ll probably end up loosing them all unless the can survive on their own for a year or two... So i´m going to use USMC, USA and Indian troops primarily. [image]local://upfiles/32406/9831D541816E48C1BE5B50210E125C43.jpg[/image]

paullus99 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 12:20:13 PM)
Well, I certainly admire your guts here. If you're going to commit, you need to go all in & don't hesitate. Once those troops hit the ground, you need to hit fast, hard and just keep going....if you don't succeed, the game is over anyway - so why not go for the hail-mary. At least it'll be exciting, right?

F4F -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 12:20:21 PM)
If you are going to do this check out canoerebels good bad and ugly aar where he ran out of patience/steam/whatever. He didn't go far enough and recognized it too late. The circumstances are different with stacking limits etc, but reading it could be useful.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 12:55:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: krishub1 Rhetorical question. Would it work better to use the "Reliable USN Torpedoes" option but edit the scenario to reduce the number of US fleet boats that are available early in the game? You could add them later as reinforcements to bring the sub OB up to historical values sometime in 1943. Not really the proper forum for this, but a short opinion: An interesting proposal. It would get at least part way to the objective, but would be hard to balance. Which subs? Which classes? Where based? I've played a month against the AI with reliable torpedoes and it's carnage time in the DEI and PI with the Manila boats. It's as ahistoric as the current model with them off, just different fleas. I've discussed a private mod with Lokasenna whereby a work-around would be to play with the switch OFF, but insert several new sub class devices, each with a steadily decreasing dud rate. These devices could only be accessed by extra upgrade trips to the yards, thus necessitating more time off station. Additionally, the yards would have large minimum sizes so the transits would be painful. Control of the sub force would be up to the player's choice. If he wanted better shooters earlier he would pay the costs to upgrade. If he wanted intel/search on station he would leave them to upgrade as now in the two Great Healings on 1/1/43 and 10/1/43. Unfortunately, the reliable torpedoes switch is in the EXE and the dates and amounts of the Great Healings are hard-coded. They can't be avoided or turned off. And this mod would do nothing to address the equally-problematic issue of over-targeting of escorts. But it would better reflect field mods to the Mk 14 that steadily reduced actual failure rates at sea from the incredibly high rates of 12/41 all the way through 1942. And it would allow a better 1943 that could force Japan to really drive its merchant marine, instead of loaf around as now.

paullus99 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 1:55:05 PM)
Since so much is hard-coded on the Allied side, it is hard to really be able to balance things, especially in light of the increased flexibility (and quite frankly - quantitative & qualitative superiority) of the Japanese forces in most of these scenarios....

Barb -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 2:33:51 PM)
Joc: Operation "Holly Mackerel"?

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 2:40:56 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: paullus99 Since so much is hard-coded on the Allied side, it is hard to really be able to balance things, especially in light of the increased flexibility (and quite frankly - quantitative & qualitative superiority) of the Japanese forces in most of these scenarios.... It is hard to balance, but it might be made a little better. The whole sub side of the game is kinda weird, as if GG did it as an afterthought. I've long mentioned that the patrol turn-around time is wrong (a day versus circa three weeks), balanced by the inability to sink more than one ship per attack. But the escort-targeting rate is a really big thing that frustrates any kind of historic outcomes. I keep hoping Michael will tweak that, but I doubt he will as it would take testing. The dud rate is the only thing exposed to modding.

mind_messing -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 2:58:48 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: paullus99 Since so much is hard-coded on the Allied side, it is hard to really be able to balance things, especially in light of the increased flexibility (and quite frankly - quantitative & qualitative superiority) of the Japanese forces in most of these scenarios.... It is hard to balance, but it might be made a little better. The whole sub side of the game is kinda weird, as if GG did it as an afterthought. I've long mentioned that the patrol turn-around time is wrong (a day versus circa three weeks), balanced by the inability to sink more than one ship per attack. But the escort-targeting rate is a really big thing that frustrates any kind of historic outcomes. I keep hoping Michael will tweak that, but I doubt he will as it would take testing. The dud rate is the only thing exposed to modding. The most annoying thing is that the code seems to be there: subs that are forced to surface can fire at several ships in a convoy, but a submerged attack is limited to a single ship.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 4:22:19 PM)
True. Might be calling a whole different sub-routine though. It seems as if the sub only fires back at ships firing at it. That's my perception at least.

Mike McCreery -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 4:35:00 PM)
Joc, I agree it is a foolish plan. The number of days it is gong to take you to get from your landing points to your objective is too many. He will have too much time to reinforce in both locations while beating you to death with LBA. I havent been paying attention to the details of your AAR as I read them all but this plan is more of a long term plan with heavy support. How about making a feint for these locations that draws him toward this theatre and then taking something that can move the points like Suva or Noumea?? He needs to maintain his 4 - 1 advantage and every combat where he is not coming out ahead of that he is losing ground.

Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 4:49:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr Joc, I agree it is a foolish plan. The number of days it is gong to take you to get from your landing points to your objective is too many. He will have too much time to reinforce in both locations while beating you to death with LBA. I havent been paying attention to the details of your AAR as I read them all but this plan is more of a long term plan with heavy support. How about making a feint for these locations that draws him toward this theatre and then taking something that can move the points like Suva or Noumea?? He needs to maintain his 4 - 1 advantage and every combat where he is not coming out ahead of that he is losing ground. The trouble with feints is that they need to be serious enough to be convincing... I think 6 IDs is maybe a little much. If it were me, I'd probably land with ~300-400 AV of armor and only drive for Palembang. The march to Medan is a longer one, and closer to airfields in Malaya. At the very least, threatening Palembang and making him retake it should be a chilling prospect for him. Especially if he wants to play towards the end. If you blow that up and he retakes it, but with Oil 0 (900), well...that's 2.5 years of turns to repair it, plus 900K supply. Actually worth repairing it after mid-42? Maybe not, or at least not all of it. It would put him down 1M supply either way. Think of it like the end of Lord of the Rings... that big ol' nasty eye is all focused on the battle at the gate, and only when the ring's about to be dropped into the volcano does it flip around and panic.

Cribtop -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/27/2014 5:28:19 PM)
Even we JFBs regret the horror of the escort over-targeting. It should happen sometimes when the sub gets detected setting up an attack and is forced to take a desperation shot down the throat, but it is clear the subs purposely target escorts. In my old AAR I often joked that PBs were the best ASW escorts for Japan. They were useless, but so often diverted torpedoes from their more valuable charges that they were a great tradeoff and freed up precious DDs.

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