RE: Groundhog Day! (Full Version)

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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/11/2016 3:36:52 PM)

Score Jan 11, 1945

In my first game with NJP I won on January 24, 1945 with a 2-1 victory. His point total was just over 57K.

Looking at the numbers in our 2nd game the biggest differences are in Allied Army loss points where he has accumulated 10,000 more points by taking out China and assaulting Russia. The other major difference is that he has avoided losing his carriers and 5,000 points of naval assets.

The 2nd game is a Senario 2 game rather than a Scenario 1 game. They were both DBB with stacking limits but the Scenario 2 game also had reduced cargo capacity. I did not feel as if there was any reduction in expansion on the Japanese side but do admit that it affected my ability to move material over the course of the game.

NJP's aggressiveness in taking out China and also pushing a large assault on Australia was successful in slowing the Allied advance down in this game and bought him 4-8 months of game time. He also has handled his supply well, his aircraft production is well ahead of last games schedule and he is still competitive in the air campaign.

Play wise, I did almost nothing of what I said I was going to do in the goals I put forth for game 2 early on. Therefore, my game play was equal to or maybe even less than what I managed to pull off in game 1. Conversely, NJP appears to have increased his ability in all areas and has put a very strong game on into 1945.

With that, I will say that NJP has won this game due to superior game play. If I manage to wrap things up by the historical date then I can say that I didnt lose the game either.

[image]local://upfiles/45141/541040EDD95B47BBB737BD292794B9DC.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/12/2016 2:28:13 PM)

Ningkow, Mid January 1945.

I looked at Ningkow last turn and it had 1-2 units with 3K-5K troops. So I figured I would give it a good smashing with my airforce because it would likey be unopposed. I was very surprised at the amount of flak that small a number of units could throw up. Well, until I saw that a whole darn army had moved in overnight.

Killed over 4300 men in 4EB attacks.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/618B257908EF43F2AB6922BA2EB93AE4.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/12/2016 3:11:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Play wise, I did almost nothing of what I said I was going to do in the goals I put forth for game 2 early on. Therefore, my game play was equal to or maybe even less than what I managed to pull off in game 1. Conversely, NJP appears to have increased his ability in all areas and has put a very strong game on into 1945.


It is hard not to improve as Japan second time thru to 45, as Japan is so darn unforgiving early mistakes in economy and planes and ships.

Conversely, I think the early game is where the Allied player improves dramatically, and you did early on avoid a lot of losses while staying competitive in those dark days.





Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/12/2016 5:09:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Play wise, I did almost nothing of what I said I was going to do in the goals I put forth for game 2 early on. Therefore, my game play was equal to or maybe even less than what I managed to pull off in game 1. Conversely, NJP appears to have increased his ability in all areas and has put a very strong game on into 1945.


It is hard not to improve as Japan second time thru to 45, as Japan is so darn unforgiving early mistakes in economy and planes and ships.

Conversely, I think the early game is where the Allied player improves dramatically, and you did early on avoid a lot of losses while staying competitive in those dark days.



I am not down on myself, just a critical review of my performance. The important thing as I said to my gaming partner is to enjoy the day to day battles, wins and losses. I enjoyed thousands of hours of exciting game play over a year of contests. Sadly, this one is going to come to an end soon. But I cant complain about the wonderful experiences I have had.

Not sure what I am going to do with myself once this game is over. I have awakened for nearly 2 years now anticipating a turn in my inbox and soon that will not be the case.

Thank you for the kind words about the early part of the war. NJP came close to taking every part of Australia including completely overrunning Tasmania. LOL!!!



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/15/2016 4:45:56 PM)

Western China



[image]local://upfiles/45141/5C8F3C457C7840F9967FCF9ECA554512.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/15/2016 4:49:02 PM)

Western China January 20 1944

China is collapsing quickly. The picture in the above post is only 4 days before. This turn a combat at Tuyun resulted in a victory for the allies along with 2 units destroyed and 5 units retreated across the river.

The only hex with more than 2x defenses between me and Chungking is the hex just southeast of Kweiyang and northeast of Tuyun. I see that there are about 14K troops in the hex. Only about 3000 troops retreated so there could be a division there in reserve. We shall soon see.

To the east at Chikang the unit in the base was just knocked across the river by the advancing allied armor. The AV of the unit before combat was 80AV so I will be expecting something in the range of 20AV once I cross the river. If I take Chikang I can strat move units into this city and drive straight into Chungking by road if for some reason Kweiyang becomes a roadblock.

Wuchang just got invaded by the east and west and I will do a direct attack with 2 divisions to determine the strength of the 13 units in this hex.

The goal is to free up Chungking so the Chinese can do garrison duty freeing up all the british, canadian and US troops while I prepare to invade the home islands of japan.

The plan is currently ahead of schedule due to lack of significant resistance. This does not mean that NJP might not have a strategic reserve waiting.

[image]local://upfiles/45141/B0220E6805014F43BCE9EF4180919DD1.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/17/2016 6:26:51 PM)

Russia Late January 1945

I have 15 fragmented Russian divisions on the map. NJP's envelope is rapidly diminishing as he is giving up Hailar without further combat.

The plan is to immediately re-organize as much of my forces as possible while positioning to move from the north down to the south to Titshar. Once this city is conquered I plan on crossing the river and assaulting Taonan from the western side and then moing down to Changchun.

I am keeping the Russian and other Allied movements separate. At this point the Americans have indicated a significant strategic need to damage the aircraft, vehicle and supply factories in the towns of Harbin, Chengchun and Mukden. The Russians have indicated that they have no ability to significantly affect these factories. Therefore it has been agreed that everything East of Chengchun will be the issue of the Russians.

Mukden provides an artery down into Korea where the bulk of the US military will be focusing it's power.

Because the Russians have essentially no airforce they have agreed to strategic bombing of Chengchun, & Harbin by the Allies to affect the plane factories established there.

The British, Canadian and Indian troops will continue to liberate China until such a point that it can liberate itself.

[image]local://upfiles/45141/929E9DF0D4AF42F681D4A3704A732A95.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/17/2016 6:55:12 PM)

Central China Late January 1945

Armor units stormed into Kweiyang last turn and shock attacked the 4 remaining units there. All 4 were destroyed. The armor column is going to move ASAP along the northwest road toward Chungking. My hope is to capture a city in the inner ring so that I can strat move the rest of my army into there without having to walk the whole way.

Once China is liberated it is just a matter of evacuating as fast as they can fill in the garrison positions.

Chungking has about 40,000 troops and 300 or so tanks according to initial recon so it will not be a pushover. I am estimating 1500AV on the top end but maybe 1000AV more likely.

Hopefully my constant bombardment of his western garrison cities and general harassment plus replacements Etc has left the city running on fumes. If not there is 4000 AV in the pipeline so eventually I will be able to overcome any resistance.

The other issue which has not been addressed yet is the nearly limitless appetite China will have for supply and how to deal with that properly. There is 1/2 million of supply available at Manilla and 800K available at Darwin but those are drops in the bucket for what China can suck up.

[image]local://upfiles/45141/9A22B7967E2D48E6A6CFC528CD724A71.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/17/2016 8:07:50 PM)

CAP trap over Shaishu To

There had not been a bombardment in a few days and the airfields were open so I thought I would take a shot at CAP'ing Shashu To along with taking out some smaller surface ships.

It went well and not well.

First off my destroyers showed up and polished off 3 E boats at the island, no problem, everything going according to schedule. Suddenly and without warning 2 Japanese battleship bombardment groups show up and pound the island. Must have been the other side since they completely missed my destroyer group.

The bad news is that a lot of planes are damaged along with about 1/2 the runway. The good news is that it was not enough to stop the CAP from flying the next day protecting the destroyers along with bagging quite a few mostly unescorted bombers.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/F82AAF449CF14258891B6A19916BDF28.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/20/2016 7:34:33 PM)

China Jan 31, 1945

Neikiang was captured last turn leading to the strategic movement of many divisions to this city for assault of Chungking.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/4E565BC0C48741AFA76D54094C1604E0.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/20/2016 8:57:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Score Jan 11, 1945

In my first game with NJP I won on January 24, 1945 with a 2-1 victory. His point total was just over 57K.

Looking at the numbers in our 2nd game the biggest differences are in Allied Army loss points where he has accumulated 10,000 more points by taking out China and assaulting Russia. The other major difference is that he has avoided losing his carriers and 5,000 points of naval assets.

The 2nd game is a Senario 2 game rather than a Scenario 1 game. They were both DBB with stacking limits but the Scenario 2 game also had reduced cargo capacity. I did not feel as if there was any reduction in expansion on the Japanese side but do admit that it affected my ability to move material over the course of the game.

NJP's aggressiveness in taking out China and also pushing a large assault on Australia was successful in slowing the Allied advance down in this game and bought him 4-8 months of game time. He also has handled his supply well, his aircraft production is well ahead of last games schedule and he is still competitive in the air campaign.

Play wise, I did almost nothing of what I said I was going to do in the goals I put forth for game 2 early on. Therefore, my game play was equal to or maybe even less than what I managed to pull off in game 1. Conversely, NJP appears to have increased his ability in all areas and has put a very strong game on into 1945.

With that, I will say that NJP has won this game due to superior game play. If I manage to wrap things up by the historical date then I can say that I didnt lose the game either.



Great to hear such an objective assessment of the game, and I agree NJP has played well. You're still doing great with the Allies too. This is a fantastic result and also means we get to watch another rare late game going strong into 45. [&o]



Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/20/2016 9:27:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

China Jan 31, 1945

Neikiang was captured last turn leading to the strategic movement of many divisions to this city for assault of Chungking.




Be somewhat cautious here. Once all those destroyed Chinese troops spawn, you will really see a spike in demand for supplies that may hinder your future conquest plans in western Manchuko.



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/20/2016 11:51:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

China Jan 31, 1945

Neikiang was captured last turn leading to the strategic movement of many divisions to this city for assault of Chungking.




Be somewhat cautious here. Once all those destroyed Chinese troops spawn, you will really see a spike in demand for supplies that may hinder your future conquest plans in western Manchuko.


I am certainly concerned. I have 500K of supply at Manila and 500K at Darwin and plan on keeping a constant supply chain feeding China. I think I dumped upwards of 2 million supply into there last game and they wanted more!!!




Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/21/2016 2:54:26 PM)

February 1945 Bomber Pools

A good spin on this would be to say that we are utilizing nearly all available airframes for maximized efficiency. The reality is I keep getting them blown up faster than the factories can replace them.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/E4EF820B746344E39AFA2887EED7EA28.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/21/2016 3:50:32 PM)

The battle for Korea Feb 1945

The American forces plan on moving down the west side of Korea. A big battle occurred at a key wooded hex just northeast of Yingkow. NJP has a strong force in the hex. My first attack was fairly good with 114 Japanese infantry squads destroyed but I did suffer some disablement and indications are that the hex will take some time to knock down.

Lower on the map at Shaishu To, NJP has not bombarded for a few days and the airfield is repaired again. So I am going to move about 10 STF's into the hex and CAP with over 100 Corsair's. Last time we bumped heads in this hex NJP lost over 150 aircraft and a handful of small craft although he did manage to sink a light cruiser.

I have a air task force that will sortie out of Shanghai to participate if any ships do not manage to get out of the hex.


[image]local://upfiles/45141/1359C0A510F3428CBA54161E5C53DCFD.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/21/2016 4:22:21 PM)

1st Battle for the coast of Korea



[image]local://upfiles/45141/265C8EEB86AE47259E16F7BF8A43BCB2.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/22/2016 2:09:47 PM)

The 103rd Rifle division refuses to combine. The B section is missing but it is not in the destroyed unit file nor in any upcoming reinforcements.

The graphic shows the reorganization page where it is only listing the two pieces but it refuses to recombine.

103rd Rifle/A is #8021 and 103rd Rifle/C is #8023. Where did #8022 go?

Any suggestions?



[image]local://upfiles/45141/BAD1FAE100CC4127930FB330F6310452.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/22/2016 5:07:02 PM)

For you supply grognards....

We are several days to several weeks from freeing China and I thought I would put a little effort into seeing what happens when you release the beast.

I currently have 315,000 supply in the map area below. I rounded up a few numbers that were within a handful and dropped the other numbers off /100 so 100 might be 139 but wasnt worth writing out exactly.

Supply is being inserted at Rangoon but primarily at Victoria point where all the troops are funneling through for a strat move to Udon Thani and then strat movement or regular movement northeast to the frontlines.

I have at least one recurring transport delivery from Cape Town where there is over 12 million tons of supplies.


[image]local://upfiles/45141/B29996B2731A416699D35C5353D1CA56.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/22/2016 9:49:31 PM)

Central China up through to Manchuko

There are some bases to the upper northeast that are not pictured on the map. They add another 25,500 supply. The total supply currently available in central China is 952,700 tonnes.

Supplies are being added at Hanoi, Hong Kong and Shanghai.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/1506FFEA1CDD4FCDB8E1B49E5146E321.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/22/2016 10:42:28 PM)

Ok, Maybe I didnt get or read the memo properly. I THOUGHT I was going to have to free up Chungking to get any Chinese replacements and that they would arrive 2 days after I liberated the city.

Well, I took Chengtu last turn and immediately..... Well, ..... Say hello to my little Chinese friends....

Doing some calculations based on initial resting supply they should be filled out with less than 15K in supplies.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/FC76980B87394ABA8B1D627AE89211A1.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2016 12:17:27 AM)

Yep. Both Chengtu and Chungking are arrival bases for Chinese units.



Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2016 2:06:33 AM)

Fascinating.

Now the real question is can you get those hungry mouths to actually contribute to the war effort before the game is over?

Or will they just eat, and eat, and eat?



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2016 4:50:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Fascinating.

Now the real question is can you get those hungry mouths to actually contribute to the war effort before the game is over?

Or will they just eat, and eat, and eat?


I spent the whole afternoon trying to get a handle upon what I was facing. About 50 units arrived at Chengtu before I was prepared for them. The next reinforcements are scheduled for 2 days but I am not sure if they are going to show up tomorrow like they did today.

I now have a color coded excel spreadsheet that is 80 rows deep and columns through the letter O telling me what is showing up and now I have an organization chart of all of it.

My calculations revealed that todays reinforcements should take 15,000 supplies to go from 0 to whatever their listed requirement is. So, easily that should be doubled to account for anything and everything so 30K. There are large groups of reinforcements equal to the size of the first group scheduled for days 2,3,4,5 & 6. Guessing them to be all of the same relative size yields the need for about 200,000 tons of supply to outfit the current army.

Guessing how much will be lost due to transportation is far beyond my abilities and that is where the experiment comes in.

The reinforcements today totaled over 6000AV so given 6 days we are looking at easily over 20,000 AV at full supply.

There are drawbacks however. Currently the armies are at 40 experience and 40 morale. The TOE of all replacement armies is 30% of the total strength.

There are currently 5700 older squads along with 400 newer squads and a production rate of 350 squads a month in the supply pools. Given 6 months I can outfit about 14 divisions with full troops up to their strength of 700+ squads.

In my last game I found the Chinese troops to be very poor and did not work well in combat. They mostly performed garrison roles. Based on those experiences my primary goal is to use the Chinese army as a garrison force for well, China...

Since Russia is pushing Japan into Korea and the Allies are on the other side pushing harder it does not seem like there is a lot of use for the Chinese army. The Chinese airforce was mostly disbanded before the collapse and it isnt going to grow back.

The NCAC will act as a garrison for Chengtu and the surrounding area. I can build the 7th New Chinese Corps inside a ring of supplied cities.

The CAF HQ and China Command are Static now at Chengtu which is fine given the condition of the airforce.

1st war area and 2nd war area have not begun to respawn yet but consist of 18 infantry corps, 4 construction regiments, 2 base forces, 1 cavalry corps, and a Provisional chinese corps will plan on moving toward eastern China.

3rd war area is composed of 12 infantry corps, 1 construction regiment, 1 base force and a new chinese corps will move to Tuyun for strat move east toward Wuchang

4th war area is composed of 6 infantry corps and 6 base forces will head for Canton for garrison duty.

5th war area is composed of 10 infantry corps and a construction regiment and will head for the Sian region and Ankang.

6th War area is composed of 14 infantry corps and 2 construction regiments and will head NE for sining and parts north.

7th War Area is composed of 3 infantry corps, 2 base forces, and a construction regiment and will head for The Tsuyung/Kunming area.

8th War area is composed of 1 infantry corps, 4 base forces and 3 brigades and will head south to Hanoi/Haiphong.

9th War area is composed of 13 infantry corps, 1 construction regiment and 1 base force and will head south to the Shanghai area.

Central Reserve will be moving NE of Chungking. It has 8 infantry corps and a lot of the artillery, AT and AA units.

Jingcha War Area is composed of 11 infantry corps and a base force will head east to Wuchang Area.

Lusu war area is composed of 4 light infantry corps will head south to the foochow coast.

Of course, that is just off the top of my head ;]









Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2016 5:50:36 PM)

Feb 5, 1945

China has been Liberated. There is a cargo fleet dropping off 4,000 tons of supply at Kwangchowan. Tomorrow a cargo fleet will begin dropping off 66,500 tons of supply at Hong Kong and in 3 days another cargo fleet will begin dropping off 88,300 tons of supply at Shanghai.

I am 7 weeks ahead of schedule but Chungking has not been retaken although that really is a moot point right now.

Also, a large attack will go in at Singapore tomorrow so hopefully the campaign for Malaysia will be completed soon.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/551AA9CCA37D479A92CF1B695C69C7CA.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2016 4:35:53 AM)

Chengtu just added another 50 units one day after the first reinforcements. I am going to be over stacked for at least a week even moving these armies out of the city as fast as possible.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/915DC46E3EB74BEA878E3DA9133C0D40.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/25/2016 1:40:57 PM)

China Liberation Day 3

NJP is totally screwed...

Probably about 1/2 million tons of supply moved last night. It appears that most units that have been on the board for 2 days are now completely back in supply. I dont anticipate any supply shortages given the current situation.



[image]local://upfiles/45141/5900895B08324828AC8797853C4ACE4F.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/25/2016 1:42:59 PM)

That is supply up one major road. Wow![X(]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/26/2016 2:57:53 PM)

Right now I have over 23,000 AV moving outwards from the clown car referred to as Chengtu. Which sounds awesome until you take into account their 40% training level. If I am not careful, the Chinese could lengthen the war, not shorten it. There will be one more day of major reinforcements.

It is impossible for me to understand the supply situation, too many inputs and outputs without any tracking in between. The supply in the hex just southeast of Chengtu has dropped to 80,000 from the 228,000 yesterday. That seems like a devastating loss until I checked the hexes further south on either side and those hexes now account for 100,000 of that. It seems a large portion is moving outward with the armies.

But that hex is still 500% overstacked and I am sure I lost a good bit of supply because of it. Shanghai has dropped to 60K and I believe that a lot of the supply is being pulled from here. I have designated a few more cargo fleets to resupply the city.

All armies have their marching orders. They are grouped by their individual commands and will operate with their HQ's. Not because I think it will give me much of an advantage, it just is good practice for me as this is one of my weak points. Running over 30 war groups will be plenty of practice.





[image]local://upfiles/45141/6B7B85641EF54E93ADB5C66F31D875AA.jpg[/image]



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/30/2016 8:50:12 PM)

3rd attack goes in on Chungking.

I am not sure why but the Japanese take 20% casualties even though the odds are 1-1.

[image]local://upfiles/45141/A6AFB0AE070A422288B2D5B9621131C5.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/30/2016 9:26:22 PM)

You are very close to a 2-1! Plus, I bet you have some wicked devices in those attacking units.

Japanese troops are probably mostly garrison style weak troops.

You outnumber him 3-1 in Guns and 4-1 in AFVs.



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