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Skygge -> RE: Supplement to Zuluhours To young to die.. (4/18/2016 2:46:53 PM)
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August 1944.
I am now of the opinion that Kurt´s strategy is a two fold approach through two strong offensives.
One Naval up from the Solomon´s across the ocean towards the Philippines, Formosa or the Ryukus.
One land down from Burma through Thailand towards Malaya.
Naval Advance :
I have already done what I can for now to oppose the Naval advance. The Island garrisons are as mentioned quite strong and behind heavy fortifications.
Still the allied can in late 1944 here overwhelm any point of their choosing, all I can do is try to turn any amphibious landing into a major affair, that requires a lot of planning and deployment of overwhelming force,
and give nothing away cheap. Any success will be measured in time gained more than in VP.
I find it hard to find forces to strengthen any island further, with so many island´s to cover, but must rather be ready to try shuttle forces already in the area to any focus points. Here the large air fleet of Emily´s together with a strong fighter
protection will be needed. With my islands out of reach of any effective allied land based fighters, Kurt will need rely on naval air.
As Kurt seem quite meticulous in his way of doing things, I doubt he will bypass the Marianna’s. He will want these islands for his bombers and naval bases here for a further advance, or at least some of them.
I do not think he find the thought of me threatening his supply lines from here acceptable. He may first go for some smaller islands first like Woleai to establish bases for Naval search.
I predict that any amphioxus landing in the Marianna´s will start with several Allied CV task forces swooping in to clear the area and draw any bombers into a hailstorm of 50 cal. from the CAP. Also I suspect allied carriers to have much larger fighter groups than historically so. To meet this I will do nothing. I will keep my air force grounded and scattered. I have plenty good airfields in transfer range of the major island. Next will come BB´s and CA´s to soften up defenses. Here I hope PT boats and cost defense
guns can soak up much of this allied effort.
When target for the allied forces has been identified I will see if I can draw the allied into a reverse CAP trap by sending In agile destroyers and transfer in substantial fighter forces to cover them. The naval forces will go to islands close to the focus point, and will have the aid of minefields, PT boats and mini subs to try help counter allied surface groups. Two days of this should give me time to have more surface groups close by for a quick dart in and for KB to have taken up position.
If the allied has focused on fighter strength on his carriers and if I have weakened his strength in attack planes, then my surface groups can go in for the surface battles they have been build for and possible cause some mayhem.
This could possible give the KB´s 23 carriers a chance to nip at the sides of the allied, or for land based air to go in to do some naval attack with range set to 0 or 1.
KB is still at Yokohama with some 35 day still to go before the larger fleet carriers come out of the mid 1944 upgrade – but then they will be bristling with Radar and AAA. I need Kurt to spend another month in cleaning in PNG.
In a week 16 of the smaller carriers are all ready and will go to Manado, which is now a major air and naval base.
Speculative – yes. Lot´s of if´s and other variables, but isn’t that what we deal in?
Land Advance :
So far so good. The allied is booged down in Northern Thailand and the Thai Army has all gone home.
Still I feel a mounting pressure here with allied columns probing to find weak spots in the defense lines, and what now seem like endless bomber streams.
So I have decided to pull out 2 ID´s from DEI to bolster the Burma/Thai front – I want to hold out here until at least start 1945 – after that I do not know what is possible.
Weaken the southern front will require me to be even more ready to shift remaining forced around, but with no apparent threat coming from Northern Australia, all allied bases here still seem rather undeveloped and very few
blockade runners have been observed getting through. My airbases in the area are well build out and with The KB and 10 BB´s close by, I feel this to be a right decision.
The Air War here has been very bloody lately – for both sides. Of course many more Japanese planes going down than allied, but I hope ratio of killed pilot´s is better, but I must continue trading planes and pilots for time.
The Japanese Army is intact, strong in fortified positions and well supplied.
What miscalculations have I undertaken that will come back to haunt me in my dreams (at work)?
What to defend and what not to?
Aye there is the rub.
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