RE: Manila Falls (Full Version)

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Alfred -> RE: Manila Falls (1/3/2016 2:28:17 PM)

Bases like Silchar, Imphal, Kohima, Dimapur and Ledo can be a major obstacle for the Allies if they have good fortification levels.  Although they don't have road links back to your supply depots in Upper Burma, it is only limited jungle hexes in between, so tthey should be able to  be supplies relatively easily.  IOW, a relatively small Japanese force could hold down a much larger Allied forces for quite some time.  Provided you have forts and you are not weakening your West Coast schwerpunkt.

The other thing is that if the Allies come at you in significant force to recapture those bases, there might be an opening for a quick amphibious raid behind the lines to reduce the size of enemy supply generating facilities.  Also keeps him off balance and helps to mask the real strategic schwerpunkt.  Again with the caveat it doesn't adversely affect the West Coast operation and you are prepared to totally lose 100% of the raiders.

Alfred



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/5/2016 2:48:59 PM)

Not much action today...

Jocke continues to flex his muscles with a PT raid on Coal Harbor. IJN Destroyers easily repulse them...

[image]local://upfiles/44178/49DAD55B07854E29AF65DD03DCB23A3C.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/7/2016 5:50:50 PM)

Early August, 1942

I pick the wrong day to take the Tojo IIa and a full sentai of Zeroes off protecting Coal Harbor, they sweep Vancouver for no effect, while the Americans strike at Coal Harbor with P38s and heavy bombers. Our defense still does very well, most zero losses are over in India protecting some troops in LRCAP.



[image]local://upfiles/44178/34F0B92CAE294B448BA725D805DB4041.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/7/2016 5:53:41 PM)

A sample P38 sweep over Coal Harbor. Notice that my reduced CAP is stacked, but very low...

You simply have to get the P38 down low, I shudder to think what another 80 fighters would have done. I always make the wrong air choices.[;)]

[image]local://upfiles/44178/11CB6E3436254EF3AB9C39B7A09F80C8.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/7/2016 5:56:32 PM)

In a skirmish versus my heavily escorted AK at Coal Harbor, we sink an Allied destroyer, and lose nothing. Jocke continues flexing his muscles...I see more destroyers heading up the West Coast.

Over in China, we prosecute another attack.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/68FE4E2EFDF148A1B453D2AC04F9B08D.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/7/2016 6:00:05 PM)

Plane notes...

Two size 30 research facilities for the Oscar IIb are converted to production and make a plane, hence they cannot switch back to research. Live and learn.

Yesterday I was at 97%, I let the two factories continue r&d, but the manufacture of the 1 IIb I guess prohibits their usual first day shift back to research. I guess I will have more Oscar IIbs than originally thought.[;)]

The first squadron upgrades to the A6M5. Another mistake, as it was a Rufe squadron that I wanted to stay Rufe. Oh well.

Now, the relatively long wait for the Tony and Tojo IIb. October to November for them.



GetAssista -> RE: Manila Falls (1/7/2016 10:13:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Two size 30 research facilities for the Oscar IIb are converted to production and make a plane, hence they cannot switch back to research. Live and learn.

Yesterday I was at 97%, I let the two factories continue r&d, but the manufacture of the 1 IIb I guess prohibits their usual first day shift back to research.

Always flip Production flag to No in the industry tab for R&D factories. Unless you are sure this would be producing factory, but that you can do manually when time comes anyway.



Mahrgell -> RE: Manila Falls (1/8/2016 7:27:38 PM)

Hm,
long time lurker in this forum. Really astonishing results you got so far. But there is one thing I have wondered for quite some time now, whenever reading your AAR, that caused me to register just to ask it.
Why San Diego? What is so special about San Diego that you want to crash in there? Is it only because of the interceptable rail line? Because this is actually all I can find as a Plus for San Diego. Or is it about those small islands in front of Sand Diego, which would allow some AC to be parked (but as they have no bases prebuilt, and you only want to have a quick raid, this is sounds odd to me)
I'm always comparing it to Portland, which would be my "If I would be ever in position to invade the WC, I would invade here" target. Reasons making me think about Portland are:
- Portland is about the same VP value as San Diego (considering you are close by there, I would expect him to actually expand the airfield, making it even)
- taking Portland kills 50-60 CVE!!! The game might even be playable and possible to continue on, with all those gone, even when he gets the emergency troops.
- even better, if it is true, that you get half their VP, this would net you about 2500 VP, that can never be taken from you ever again.
- actually CVE are the smallest part of Portlands production, so you would also cancel all those Libertyships, TK and what else is built there. If it really gives half VP, then those VP from all those would probably win you the game right away without it being even close, even if you donate a chunk of your fleet for it. So there is some margin of error as long as you get the base. While with SanDiego losing 2 CV may suddenly mean you need another 2000 VP from somewhere to get your 4:1.
- Portland is actually in range of some of your LBA from Coal Harbor/Bella/Alliford.
- a secondary Invasion/drop on some base nearby may enable you to fly in landbased fighters covering the scene.
- even if your fleet is spotted by Sigint or other means, up there they look much less suspicious then on the way down to San Diego. Getting down there unnoticed is actually quite difficult. Portland instead is just a 2 day leap from your "expected" positions.

Now about how to invade Portland. There are imho 3 options:
a) Go straight up the river into Portland. Now this means you get the full brunt of the Astoria CD with the punishment for going up the river (narrow straight). This CD has less barrels total than the CD of Victoria or San Diego, but more high caliber ones. Then again your AP will sink regardless of what hits them. In the end, the losses taken from this would have to be tested before. Like what if you manage to get a bombardment in before invasion fleet speeds through? At least Portland has no stationary CD, so once you passed by Astoria you can "safely" unload. As I said, this would probably have to be tested before. Compared to your Victoria tests also it could be mentioned that Victoria and Vancouver are mined by default. Astoria and Portland aren't. Not sure he expects something that bold.
b) Invade Astoria with the first fleet, hope to break it in max 3 days and then charge up the river. If running by in a) is impossible this may be a solution, but depends on what defense recon finds in Astoria. Reduces the CD losses, but slows the entire operation down.
c) Invade Tillamook and walk over. Tillamook has no (stationary) CD or anything, and I could see you taking it in 1 day. Luckily you again can recon it easily there without raising too much suspisions. Has the advantage of you not having to mess around with CD at all. Still, walking to Portland takes a few days and may be too slow before reinforcments get railed in. Also the river there is mildly annoying. But depending on recon you may be able to paradrop on Corvalis cutting the raillines southwards. It is reachable even from Alliford (range 20). Pendleton is also a viable droptarget but that rail is less useful if Corvalis is still open. CoosBay may be a possible secondary invasion target just for its airbase.



GetAssista -> RE: Manila Falls (1/8/2016 8:36:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mahrgell
Why San Diego?

Portland looks nigh impossible to capture unless Jocke is a noob, because reinforcements will rail in from all directions into 2x hex with forts. SD can be isolated from that for quite some time by landing at Santa Ana then marching into LA, and you are ok defensively



Alfred -> RE: Manila Falls (1/9/2016 5:50:02 AM)

San Diego is most definitely not necessarily the best choice.  Which is why some months ago I said that the target location needs to be carefully evaluated.  Ultimately it depends on the forces available for the operation and the disposition of the enemy forces.

San Diego is attractive for its industrial production (aircraft in particular) and the theoretical ability to isolate it for a short period of time.  But I have serious reservations about the ability to actually effect a complete cordon sanitaire around San Diego.  It is the main arrival location for USMC units and a fair bit of the land combat power of the USN.  Without the cordon sanitaire San Diego will probably be impregnable if some, let alone all, of those units are based there before leaving for overseas duty.

On the other hand, the same effort to isolate San Diego can be expended at Portland (or other northern bases).  Done more quickly and at less cost as paras can be dropped from existing bases without the need for capturing any channel island bases first which will tip off the enemy.  Plus IJN losses can be miniscule for Portland.  Not only is Portland, unless it has been reinforce, vulnerable to direct capture by paras only, Tillamock starts off with no LCUs and it can be captured by paras (if not reinforced) or by direct amphibious landings with a quick overland march to Portland/Astoria/Corvallis etc.

Those two are not the only attractive North American targets.  As I said a great deal of planning is required.  Not just on locations but also when.

Alfred 



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/9/2016 1:38:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mahrgell

Hm,
long time lurker in this forum. Really astonishing results you got so far. But there is one thing I have wondered for quite some time now, whenever reading your AAR, that caused me to register just to ask it.
Why San Diego? What is so special about San Diego that you want to crash in there? Is it only because of the interceptable rail line? Because this is actually all I can find as a Plus for San Diego. Or is it about those small islands in front of Sand Diego, which would allow some AC to be parked (but as they have no bases prebuilt, and you only want to have a quick raid, this is sounds odd to me)
I'm always comparing it to Portland, which would be my "If I would be ever in position to invade the WC, I would invade here" target. Reasons making me think about Portland are:
- Portland is about the same VP value as San Diego (considering you are close by there, I would expect him to actually expand the airfield, making it even)
- taking Portland kills 50-60 CVE!!! The game might even be playable and possible to continue on, with all those gone, even when he gets the emergency troops.
- even better, if it is true, that you get half their VP, this would net you about 2500 VP, that can never be taken from you ever again.
- actually CVE are the smallest part of Portlands production, so you would also cancel all those Libertyships, TK and what else is built there. If it really gives half VP, then those VP from all those would probably win you the game right away without it being even close, even if you donate a chunk of your fleet for it. So there is some margin of error as long as you get the base. While with SanDiego losing 2 CV may suddenly mean you need another 2000 VP from somewhere to get your 4:1.
- Portland is actually in range of some of your LBA from Coal Harbor/Bella/Alliford.
- a secondary Invasion/drop on some base nearby may enable you to fly in landbased fighters covering the scene.
- even if your fleet is spotted by Sigint or other means, up there they look much less suspicious then on the way down to San Diego. Getting down there unnoticed is actually quite difficult. Portland instead is just a 2 day leap from your "expected" positions.

Now about how to invade Portland. There are imho 3 options:
a) Go straight up the river into Portland. Now this means you get the full brunt of the Astoria CD with the punishment for going up the river (narrow straight). This CD has less barrels total than the CD of Victoria or San Diego, but more high caliber ones. Then again your AP will sink regardless of what hits them. In the end, the losses taken from this would have to be tested before. Like what if you manage to get a bombardment in before invasion fleet speeds through? At least Portland has no stationary CD, so once you passed by Astoria you can "safely" unload. As I said, this would probably have to be tested before. Compared to your Victoria tests also it could be mentioned that Victoria and Vancouver are mined by default. Astoria and Portland aren't. Not sure he expects something that bold.
b) Invade Astoria with the first fleet, hope to break it in max 3 days and then charge up the river. If running by in a) is impossible this may be a solution, but depends on what defense recon finds in Astoria. Reduces the CD losses, but slows the entire operation down.
c) Invade Tillamook and walk over. Tillamook has no (stationary) CD or anything, and I could see you taking it in 1 day. Luckily you again can recon it easily there without raising too much suspisions. Has the advantage of you not having to mess around with CD at all. Still, walking to Portland takes a few days and may be too slow before reinforcments get railed in. Also the river there is mildly annoying. But depending on recon you may be able to paradrop on Corvalis cutting the raillines southwards. It is reachable even from Alliford (range 20). Pendleton is also a viable droptarget but that rail is less useful if Corvalis is still open. CoosBay may be a possible secondary invasion target just for its airbase.


Welcome, and I will say you are in excellent company with not liking the San Diego operation, as Alfred agrees which he just pointed out.[:)]

To me, it comes down to the terrain and ability to get blockers on the rail lines into place. I look at all that nasty terrain around Portland, and can't figure out how I can get there before four Tank Divisions and 1 million supplies get stockpiled there.

Then I can't figure how I will beat the Allied troops once I get there. Encirclement and siege? Not likely, imho.

In addition, since I am in Alaska, I fear the fort levels will be astronomical.








Alfred -> RE: Manila Falls (1/9/2016 2:58:41 PM)

I haven't done my own detailed planning, well after all I don't have your data[:)], so I don't dismiss San Diego as the target.  What I am saying is that I think you are underestimating the difficulties for San Diego and over estimating the difficulties for the northern locations.

1.  There are many more bases closer to San Diego than there are bases close to, say Portland.  That means you have to thin out your para drops to capture all the nearby bases.  You have to capture as a minimum

Santa Anna
Los Angeles
Port Hueneme
Santa Barbara
March Field
Mojave

To not capture them all allows strat rail move into the uncaptured base and a quick overland move as all these bases are next to each other.  Up north the distance between bases is much greater.

2.  It is unlikely that the southern bases will be devoid of troops.  In fact there is a much higher percentage of static troops in the south than there is up north.  Considering that the density of your para drops will be less than up north, I can easily see you failing to capture all of these bases and thus no impediment is created to strat rail move directly into San Diego.  With your higher density para drops up north, you stand a much better chance of defeating outright the local non combat forces.

3.  Nor should the terrain and fortification levels be overlooked.  Of all the potential targets San Diego has the worst defensive terrain.  But to balance against that, with such a long term Japanese presence in North America one can well imagine building forts will have been a high Allied priority, and almost certainly more than Tillamook.  Certainly with all those Seabees arriving close by, guess where they will be deployed.  My money is on Los Angeles, San Diego and the adjacent coastal bases.

4.  Paradoxically, it will be easier to hide your approaching invasion fleets up north than it is down south.  Up north they might appear as large resupply convoys or perhaps heading for Vancouver or Seattle, whereas in fact you might be aiming for a Tillamook unloading after its para capture by coup de main, or Fast Transport.  Whereas if the fleet is spotted in the south it will be obvious that either Los Angeles or San Diego is the target.  With the close proximity of those bases, Allied reserves will be in position just with "move" mode employed.  Remember the south has not just more static units, they house a fair number of mobile units anyway.

5.  The density of developed enemy airfields is much higher in the south.  Do not underestimate the impact of unimpeded Allied LBA on the success of the invasion.

6.  Remember that if the entry point is Tillamook or Astoria, USMC and USN can not strat rail move there to recapture them.  You may be able to build a better supporting structure for your invasion.


The stark fact is that San Diego or Portland (and for that matter several other bases) are very attractive targets and their loss will severely crimp Allied operations from mid 1943 onwards.  Portland provides the logistical base to support the naval counter attack, San Diego provides the logistical base for long distance air operations.  The key consideration is which base can be more easily captured.  That depends on enemy dispositions and what you can bring to the party.  As much as possible avoid dispersal and maximise mass.  Focus, focus, focus....[;)]

Alfred



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 1:42:21 PM)

Allies keep testing...time for more naval bombardments...

[image]local://upfiles/44178/836850C2D0464D97A6DD0685C6C9E51D.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 1:45:58 PM)

Not much longer now...here.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/9E1E872316ED4569AE33007C5A75E6AA.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 1:50:16 PM)

Nice results in the air.

Once again, a stacked CAP. The Oscars were at 5000 and 10,000 while the Nicks were at 20K. The Allied sweep was at 20K and consisted of three waves of fighters, with all three Allied squadrons being run down to 0 planes.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/C64365B15EE14D6EAC42979FE4F752D9.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 1:51:28 PM)

Face palm moment of the day.[X(]

[image]local://upfiles/44178/B8DE0323AE844038ADF01B9AC322F58C.jpg[/image]



GetAssista -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 2:44:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
1.  There are many more bases closer to San Diego than there are bases close to, say Portland.  That means you have to thin out your para drops to capture all the nearby bases.  You have to capture as a minimum

Santa Anna
Los Angeles
Port Hueneme
Santa Barbara
March Field
Mojave

To not capture them all allows strat rail move into the uncaptured base and a quick overland move as all these bases are next to each other.  Up north the distance between bases is much greater.

One can only dream about capturing LA, come on.
Unless we are looking on different maps (mine is Stock) there are exactly 3 mountain/heavy-urban hexes that you need to be in to block SD from overland movement. 2 of them are bases (LA & March Field), and you need not capture them, just be there in force as a block and hold out until SD siege is over. Sure some paras need disperse through southern bases, but only to delay rail-ins and allow time to move into those 3 hexes

Come to think of it, it would be reasonable at some point to let US rowboat corpse capture Santa Anna back so that your blockers had nowhere to retreat to. As I understand that would make them hold longer. Balancing it with supply issue for SD siege ofc



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:24:07 PM)

1st week of Aug, 1942

More bombing in Canada.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/8EA4BCF4D78F481987324FF3819D9453.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:27:41 PM)

For the last few days, an ominous gathering of large warships was happening on the west coast of India....

An intrepid I boat was sent to make a run.

Cochin was the port, and even before getting there the Iboat suffered three attacks by KVs, suffering 13% sys damage, but the Captain would not relent.

However, even he cannot penetrate the screens.[:(]



[image]local://upfiles/44178/8DFC96F8088A4F02949A8B1DE0AD3881.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:34:35 PM)

A rare second day follow up attack in China.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/AAE6096E795A464FAA030E86A54C5188.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:36:14 PM)

Another Iboat miss...

[image]local://upfiles/44178/FB02D961763A4B1D955B8F4A77FE9E12.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:37:08 PM)

But, then, back off the coast of India -- A lucky torpedo does massive damage...

[image]local://upfiles/44178/F307D94266C445F8B91344A9AD0E7E18.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:48:14 PM)

Hmm.,

[image]local://upfiles/44178/F12FDE95BAB7457897236F1FB33C53C5.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:51:50 PM)

My kind of Iboat Captain....high naval, medium aggression.

I32 has really run the gauntlet, attacked 2-3 times yesterday, failed to penetrate in the AM, and then struck home in the afternoon.

Now to get out to sea, and some deep water safety.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/B3D9CEFAA6BC423B8F035CE5DE29D347.jpg[/image]



Alfred -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 4:52:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
1.  There are many more bases closer to San Diego than there are bases close to, say Portland.  That means you have to thin out your para drops to capture all the nearby bases.  You have to capture as a minimum

Santa Anna
Los Angeles
Port Hueneme
Santa Barbara
March Field
Mojave

To not capture them all allows strat rail move into the uncaptured base and a quick overland move as all these bases are next to each other.  Up north the distance between bases is much greater.

One can only dream about capturing LA, come on.
Unless we are looking on different maps (mine is Stock) there are exactly 3 mountain/heavy-urban hexes that you need to be in to block SD from overland movement. 2 of them are bases (LA & March Field), and you need not capture them, just be there in force as a block and hold out until SD siege is over. Sure some paras need disperse through southern bases, but only to delay rail-ins and allow time to move into those 3 hexes

Come to think of it, it would be reasonable at some point to let US rowboat corpse capture Santa Anna back so that your blockers had nowhere to retreat to. As I understand that would make them hold longer. Balancing it with supply issue for SD siege ofc


I am a far better strategist and AE player than you give me credit for. I look at reinforcement schedules, do you? I take into account what to do with restricted units, do you?

Even without knowledge of what Lowpe has in mind exactly, I will baldly state this now.

Japanese paratroopers will not survive let alone capture any of the 6 bases I have nominated, and yes all 6 bases are required not just your 2 nominated bases. That means there will be no cordon sanitaire set up around San Diego. If Lowpe's entire plan to capture San Diego is dependent on the paratroopers, then he will fail abjectly to capture San Diego.

Lowpe has been strategic bombing North American industry for months. He even sent the KB on a cruise to Australia to strategic bomb industry there. His opponent would have to be dumb to not realise the possibility of a Japanese landing in North America. He would then be stupid to not already have in place today, let alone in a few months, a stiff land defence at the key coastal bases.

I've said this in recent posts but I will repeat in clear terms so that even you can not misunderstand the position. The local forces will eliminate the paratroopers on the turn they land. The local forces, aided by fortification levels and the non-combat troops, will prevent a coup de main. The local forces just 2 -3 hexes from San Diego will march, without the need to spend time changing to strat move mode, and arrive within 4 days. Forces up north will go into strat rail mode, if not already in that mode, on D-Day as there will be no cordon sanitaire in place.

Lowpe has to come up with a better plan than using paratroopers to pull off the San Diego operation because the paratrooper component is doomed.

Alfred



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 5:05:49 PM)

I agree with Alfred.[;)]

However, I am only planning on using paratroops to cut two bases which recent intel are very lightly garrisoned.

However, that is what I am struggling with. How to keep a semblance of tactical surprise?

The main landings themselves will isolate San Diego which has only one rail road hexside to effect isolation.

It is a very tough tactical nut to crack.[:(]






GetAssista -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 7:12:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Japanese paratroopers will not survive let alone capture any of the 6 bases I have nominated, and yes all 6 bases are required not just your 2 nominated bases. That means there will be no cordon sanitaire set up around San Diego. If Lowpe's entire plan to capture San Diego is dependent on the paratroopers, then he will fail abjectly to capture San Diego.

Sorry if my point did not come across more clearly, I should've spend more time typing and less time assuming. But I thought it was obvious from the start that invasion would require dozen+ of divisions landing, and paratroops' only role is to try temporarily isolate entire LA area from the rest of US - like landing in Las Vegas / Fresno-Bakersfield / maybe Mojave.
Lowpe's plan never included, and I never argued that paras would capture Los Angeles, Alfred, no need to beat a strawman here. I still fail to see how entire LA area is needed captured first for SD to fall.

And sorry for hijacking your thread, Lowpe. I got carried away and am stopping now :) Whatever it is, it is your plan in the first place



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Manila Falls (1/10/2016 9:38:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I agree with Alfred.[;)]

However, I am only planning on using paratroops to cut two bases which recent intel are very lightly garrisoned.

However, that is what I am struggling with. How to keep a semblance of tactical surprise?

The main landings themselves will isolate San Diego which has only one rail road hexside to effect isolation.

It is a very tough tactical nut to crack.[:(]




Landing on the islands off SD in order to launch paras will trigger the ER package with a couple days' head start for strat move conversion. In case that isn't factored it.

Alfred gave possibly the best reason to NOT do SD and to instead look somewhere like Portland (the CVE loss would be immense; far worse than losing any aircraft factories.) And that is the transit to Portland would look like regular TFs to your current beachheads. By late 1942 it's unlikely you'll have a free pass on subs tumbling across the transit to SOCAL. The TFs will be immense. And there's no reason they'd be there except an invasion.



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/11/2016 2:04:00 PM)

What am I missing?

How can I possibly take Portland. Look at all the rail junctions. Everything x2 terrain. CD guns and mines.



[image]local://upfiles/44178/812B8C495AD74016AC6B3678DE0F860F.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (1/11/2016 2:06:13 PM)

San Fran isn't very attractive either...

[image]local://upfiles/44178/9E6CE177F3D340C8BDFC325DD99CEB13.jpg[/image]



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