rkr1958 -> RE: Global War AAR in Pictures (3/27/2016 9:02:25 PM)
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ORIGINAL: Centuur The Allies better go first next turn, since the Luftwaffe has just been rearmed and refuelled... The initiative track is back at 0 since the allies moved both first and last this turn. The axis win ties. So, like the initiate roll for this turn, the odds are the same for the next turn. Again, whichever side loses the first roll will request a re-roll. The odds for the axis winning the first roll is 55%. If the win and the allies request a re-roll, the odds of winning the re-roll is 64%. If the axis lose the first roll (45% chance) and request a re-roll, the odds for them (the axis) winning the re-roll is 45%. So the chance that the axis will win the initiative and get to move first next turn is, 55% x 64% + 45% x 45% = 55.45%. Practically a coin flip as was the initiate rolls for this turn. I love this game!
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