RE: Turn 65: The Ending (Full Version)

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Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: The Ending (6/5/2019 10:02:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Why is that your version shows U2-VS under "Dive Bomber", while my 1.11.03 as "Tactical Bomber"? I assume it's a game started with older generic data (pre 1.11.01)?



Yes that is correct.



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming (6/5/2019 10:07:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Example #4:

[image]local://upfiles/38979/29B7647B1B974D54B6929289B3F8E710.jpg[/image]


Did you have some interdiction attacks that turn?

Yes interdictions every turn.



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:16:51 PM)

I was first introduced to WITE while I was playing WITP AE. With WITP AE I started an AAR with my first game, and I had the guidance of "Alfred". Alfred was clearly an expert and rumored to be GG himself [:'(]. Through this interchange I transitioned from newbie to proficient (3 campaign games) in a little less than a year. The game was very interesting as I learned more the more I played the game. Then the forums degraded into a sewer. I became much more interested in WITE in a post Pelton world because of the flow of ideas about WITE was very interesting to me once again. I hope WITE does not fall into the sewer.

My research in past years has focused on patient safety and quality, and in particular, communication. Poor communication is a key factor in sentinel events. Bullying, threatening, ostracism ... in the health field it leads to poor patient care. An article I authored I explored using techniques to address conversations where the stakes are high and opinions are diverse called A Formative Evaluation of a Crucial Conversations™ Program: A Case Study One thing about being online is that we lose the unconscious ability to perceive emotional ques from the audience. So we exclaim our worldviews unfettered that we might be doing harm. In some cases I would propose that the lack of social ques has led to sociopathic behaviors at times. (The demise of the 9MP and 10MP games before they could get started.)

So far this AAR from start to finish has been a a great forum for exploring this game. Telemecus has contributed much, and I understand the game will evolve once again where some of the details will no longer be applicable. I hope in the future more AAR's like this are written.



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:31:13 PM)

The interaction on this forum I believe led to an Epiphany.

TURN 64 AIR.

The events of turn 65 might be best understood by looking at turn 64.

Fundamentally -- The Soviet air force is now moving much closer.

And their ranges are no longer capped - the Soviet side was asked just in case this was a mistake. It was not - the Red Air Force is back in the ground war business. The Soviets even get a ground interdiction with the first unit moved during the Axis turn!

The last fighter-bomber factory around Gorky was evacuated during the Soviet turn (see Economic notes). There are two light tank factories remaining in Gorky - but one already has high damage levels and does not merit increases as it soon stops production. The other light tank factory is still a worthwhile target - but it is not the only one we can hit. In effect Gorky is about to lose its special status. Rather than being our number one target every turn, it will be one of many. It seems the Soviet side has realized this instinctively, and has not even bothered to wait to see - the airbases used for the fighter cover over Gorky has already been moved away.

The LW level bomber force however had to largely go into reserve - only 11 German level bomber groups remain on the map during the Axis action phase only one of which is a full 40-size bomber group receiving replacements. There needs to be some R&R after the end of the battles for Gorky and the masses of interdiction plus some manual swaps of bombers to Heinkels or Do217E4s in case the Wehrmacht can just get the Urals in range. So at least for this turn the Luftwaffe will not be on an all out offensive. Nevertheless the few that remain inflict some decent losses on the Soviet air forces during our turn.

Soviet percentage required to fly air doctrine was found to be 35% again this turn.



[image]local://upfiles/38979/8EDFF78BB9E7405F8A4306EA94A05017.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:40:41 PM)

Turn 64 Flak

A German epiphany....

The optimum method for assigning SU's is to push the SU down from a local HQ. The reason for this is that the Army and Army Group HQ's tend not to be within the battle space. Thus the natural flow of SU's from Corps -> Army -> Army Group-OKH means that SU's tend to have a 2 turn pause of not being in action if you pull the SU into the Corps HQ. However, If the HQ is not close enough to the action then pushing will not work as the HQ's will not be in the selection list. This has been an issue for quite some time. The effects of pulling rather than pushing SU's from the closest HQ is illustrated below.

An analysis of Axis flak at end of turn

Of 6645 German flak guns available
-279+ not usable as in army group HQs
-849 probably not usable as in army HQs
-2833 not usable as in cities (but 50 points for each to reassign)
-none were assigned to any Air HQ

Of 174 Finnish flak guns available none are deployed to the Karelian army HQ or independent corps - although there is an argument to concentrate them every turn any SUs in Finnish High Command (which has no direct units) should at least be assigned to any army or independent corps HQs on rails

Of 140 Italian guns 24 were not usable as left in 8th Italian army HQ - none were in the air HQ
every turn any SUs in 8th Italian army (which has no direct units) should at least be assigned to any corps HQs on rails

Of 672 Rumanian flak guns
-320 not usable as in cities (but 50 points for each to reassign)
-176 probably not usable as in army HQs (and I had moved 112 to Rumanian corps myself)
-none were in Rumanian Air Combat HQ
every turn any SUs in 1st,2nd or 3rd army (which has no direct units) should at least be assigned to any corps HQs on rails

Of 293 Hungarian guns
-39 not usable as in cities (but 50 points for each to reassign)
-59 in Hungarian air command (only takes 5 points total to reassign to 2Hn army)
-85 frozen in Hungary
-none in Air HQ
every turn any SUs in 2nd Hungarian army (which has no direct units) should at least be assigned to any corps HQs on rails

About 1/6 of the available German flak, a most effective defense for airbase and ground attacks, is not deployed effectively on a turn that the Soviets have decided to confront the LW!

The solution is not simple. It means moving Army and Army Group HQ closer to the predicted battlespace. That means emptying HQ's SU's and moving them near rail heads close to the action. The goal is to have SU's on an assignment list that I can push to the Corps HQ level.



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:45:52 PM)

TURN 65 AIR

During the Soviet turn the Red Air Force engages in extensive ground bombing of the front line which draws the LW fighters in, and even attacks our airbases. On the key measure of German single seat fighters we lose 190. This is well beyond a sustainable number; although, for now the LW pools can easily replace the losses. The German fighter force had been distributed and close to front lines in line with previous Soviet air tactics, with the new air tactics our fighters are moved back and concentrated.



[image]local://upfiles/38979/6A482DF022C247C6A644268903AF8496.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:50:42 PM)

There is a cost to ramping up the Soviet air operations. A very large number of Soviet aircraft are left damaged or reserved. And with so many airbases left unprotected on the ground in the Volga corridor many are destroyed there. Some airbases are routed by ground forces, bombed by our air force, routed and bombed again several times. Soviet losses again exceed 1000 in a turn for the first time since August 1941. During the Axis turn over 400 Soviet fighter bombers are lost at the cost of only 6 German single seat fighters. Most of the best of our bomber force is in reserve for a planned intensive raid on the Urals. Thus the bombers are not involved this turn in the air war. Notwithstanding, the Soviet fighter numbers are again down to the numbers where they will only just cover the needs of the airgroups that came with the scenario. This is besides any planned airgroups to cover an expanding front. Soon to include the Urals!

[image]local://upfiles/38979/930A3C893BB34647A7C9E1BDA1A98F0B.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:53:22 PM)

The graph below shows the status of Soviet fighters & fighter bombers up to turn 65. M60 is playing turn 65 with forces depleted by past sins. The change in tactics might be too late.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/656BD8EF2AC1427E97A8AFF0A8ADEA47.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 3:58:43 PM)

For the first time since early 1941 the Germans are about to run out of tactical and dive bombers. This game was started under v1.10 when there was no distinction between the two platform categories, and by upgrading to the latest patch all are considered as dive bombers. Similarly all Soviet tactical bombers will be dive bombers here. Axis production of these models is not high. And they have been used well and intensively in 1942. Interesting the Germans are looking forward to winter as by the end of the summer the LW will no longer have enough to fill up the existing air groups. This means that the arriving bomber trained FB air groups will have to remain with FB models of aircraft. The winter will pause the Panzers for the Soviets but the Germans will need pause to restock the aircraft pools.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/0E832F9FE6FD4B64A2497C64B0C980FA.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 4:17:05 PM)

Turn 65: The Volga Corridor

A very real opportunity presented itself on Turn 65. Create a corridor of German owned hexes well behind the Soviet lines that connect around the Kessel (see previous maps reference "The Kessel").

The aims of this operation are:

i) Loosely close the Volga Kessel
ii) Destroy several hundred Soviet aircraft on the ground
iii) Provide a bridgehead for 2nd and 3rd Panzer armies on the east bank of the Volga

Preliminaries


The attached map shows how the WITE system allows for "Path Recon". The reader can see from the movement paths that there must be at least two units in the red circles marked that are currently undetected. One could see this as a flaw in the game design that you can use movement paths as "recon". There is a game option to prevent this game behavior, and force the player to move in segments preventing path recon.. This game was not started with this option. From my perspective I would say the current game option allows for players to perform "Path Recon" and expose units at detection lever "0". I do not see it as an exploit as both sides can do it with equality.

The battle reports identify that Guards cavalry corps pushed back the Slovakian motorized division and now, together with a guards tank corps, defend between 1st Panzer army and the broken rails of last turn. The fact that they pushed back the Slovaks rather than isolate them as they could have done is suspicious that the Soviets did this intentionally as they wish to prioritize rail repair rather than isolate Germans. They should now have on map rail repair units they can use manually; therefore, it is safe to assume that the Soviet turn these rail hexes will be repaired.

The guards are a formidable defense assessed at about a 5 defensive CV??; however, recon showed that there seemed to be very little round their flank to the East. And behind them are 12 airbases. The previous postings showed that the Soviets have have hundreds of damaged aircraft which they would lose if the airbases are routed. The Germans have available motorized units with enough MPs to go round the east flank of the Guards, cut the rail, rout the rail repairers and then rout the airbases. They would then have enough MPs to retrace their steps to safety in our lines. But then you ask yourself in that position is moving back the best idea? It seems like they have no units between there and the Volga to the east of 2nd and 3rd Panzer army.

This is an opportunity.


[image]local://upfiles/38979/59B6C1AF893F402B969835EB93BA7A30.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 4:20:23 PM)

The Slovaks Hold!

The battle report below shows the forces that faced the Slovaks! As mentioned above this provides key intelligence for the units that need pushing to accomplish opening the Volga corridor.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/E28B7EFA1E4E45EE8EDB282435260CCD.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 4:29:35 PM)

RECON:

There has been much written about "Recon spam". The picture below shows the result of the recon to check assumptions within the plan. Each recon provided additional probabilities that a unit might be exposed. In fact, units did pop up not previously exposed.

Inside the black lines is a corridor three hexes wide. Every hex either has three enemy units with zero CV (e.g. airbases) or has had two recon missions in that hex (with one exception of a weak brigade at the mouth of the corridor). All of course have had many recon missions in the next hex and so on. All are clear hexes. This is a carpet bombing recon. I sense that others will mistake this for trying to fatigue enemy planes again! However, the recon reassured that no enemy units existed within the planned corridor.

The bottom line is there are no enemy units with CV in the black line encircled corridor. The plan will be that the one unit at the mouth of the corridor could be blasted away or retreated out of the corridor. There is still a possibility that the "carpet bombing recon" on clear hexes will leave behind undetected units; however, it is not very likely. This means that any unit(s) that drive through the middle lane of this three hex corridor will not have to fight any enemy units on the way. The Germans now have units like 7th Panzer and Totenkopf divisions with a high morale and a lot of MPs. The opportunity begins to form into a plan.



[image]local://upfiles/38979/26D8D66E31B74B1B9FF1CB9733A35045.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 4:35:22 PM)

The above posting discusses 7th and Totenkopf divisions. A look here and counting the hexes we can see where in the corridor these units might flip hexes toward the Germans. The key will be reaching airbases and do to the Soviets when operation Titan did to the Germans [:'(]

[image]local://upfiles/38979/4AFFF16D6F3C4B2599B40BE801A17738.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 4:38:44 PM)

The key is herding units in one direction to open the corridor. The entire operation hinges on the units guarding the gates. The diagram below shows the plan:

[image]local://upfiles/38979/4C92998CC3804147A81716D597AA7CA0.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 4:40:19 PM)

This diagram shows the herding plan in detail ...

[image]local://upfiles/38979/5CF0BA05FCE4427CA86735B6AEF09779.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 5:39:15 PM)

The Guards are moved .. units on the East side of the Corridor shatter .. now it is simply a matter of herding units west of the corridor ..

[image]local://upfiles/38979/AB7528E71CBE4F0497296FF8A380FCEC.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:09:25 PM)

Ok we can open the corridor, what to do next? The embedded picture shows Totenkopf and 7 Panzer options. There are IMPORTANT points to note here. The herding lesson with Ershovo - applies again here. This plan is not without risks.

First of all, the option is always if things go wrong is that all 1st Panzer Army units, like Totenkopf and 7 Pz, can retreat back with the rest of 1st Panzer group. One problem is that an Italian airbase that will act as a decoy for interdicting Soviet bombers will be a sacrifice. The Germans accept wherever hex they get routed to on turn 66. So worst comes to worst there is still a retreat back option for the rest of the units.

The plan depends on Totenkopf driving through to meet 2nd and 3rd Panzer armies. This means making the widest possible arc to flip the maximum hexes while re-routing units such as the routed unit at 150,67. (See my previous posts on the devastation caused not only during the German turn but the accumulative casualties during the Soviet logistics phase.) There the airbases at 149,63 that because of the previous intense combat on turn 64, will result in more Soviet losses. The plan also requires detailed coordination for the Totenkopf division to cross the Volga and meet 2nd and 3rd Panzer armies at a possible crossing point. The problem is an unsupported German unit can be herded just like the Germans herded units to create a corridor. In this case Totenkopf would be isolated and destroyed. This also means coordinating 2nd and 3rd Panzer Armies not to attack within two hexes of where Totenkopf is planned to occupy in the end. This is because retreated units will block Totenkopf from getting to the objective.

So that means that 2nd and 3rd Panzer armies will need to advance in unison with elements of the 1st Panzer Army. Coordinating the turn advancing units one by one to critical junctures. This represents a difference from a team game where units would be moved asynchronously with separate players moving units during their mini-turn. I am not sure this plan could be executed well in a multiple player game.

One thing in particular are the strengths of the units in CV within the strong points of the rough hexes and the Tereshka rivers. These units were able to fortify to level 1 in one turn and thus it is high probably these hexes contain have corps level units. The plan also depends on not to attack any units that could displace and occupy hexes before Totenkopf arrives. The consequences of attacking the wrong units too early are that the Soviet retreat paths occupying critical hexes next to where Totenkopf is planned to occupy.

The other part of the plan is that 7Pz can either join 2nd and 3rd Panzer armies or retreat back to 1st Panzer army. One key objective is to flip the airbase at 147,67 on the way. If retreating back afterwards, then route to 148,68, or to 148,67. The same point about 2nd and 3rd Panzer armies not attacking within two hexes applies here as well.


[image]local://upfiles/38979/B9757E4C185740188486582442A6CDE6.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:19:02 PM)

With elements of the 1st Panzer Army in place, it is now time to start moving the 2nd and 3rd Panzer Armies. It is now clear that very strong units are north of the Kessel. Below shows a picture after the Panzers clear clutter away and begin to assault toward the Volga.

The route shown is the path of least Resistance. Recon and ground bombing are showing the units in the rough terrain to the south of the planned crossing point. Very strong Soviet units are to the North. If the Germans pull this off somewhere around 2 million Soviets will be trapped in a huge Kessel. The Kessel will be easily opened, but for one turn 50 or so units will be lacking MP's to make their escape.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/128C28E687B04013997826184E8909AD.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:20:16 PM)

The Germans begin the assault to clear a pathway to the Volga. The plan is to heard weak units into the Kessel while opening a hole to the Volga.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/FFFDDA5ECE6341F9864AABFD4F791DB0.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:27:17 PM)

As the smoke clears ... the Germans are at the point of no return. Elements of the 1st Panzer Army either pull back (redeploy never retreat!) or meet elements of the 2nd and 3rd Panzer Armies. Totenkopf has committed to crossing the Volga.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/E8920A553A344756B915513C0D77CFAE.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:33:55 PM)

Now it is a matter of clearing the Volga and moving elements of the 1st Army in place to meet with elements of the 2&3 Panzer Armies
[image]local://upfiles/38979/4F867ACFA98E449D8A9ACD872758BF66.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:39:49 PM)

Now Elements with MP's of 2nd and 3rd Panzer Armies fill in to make a bridgehead. One thing this plan depended on is that units in the Kessel will lack the MP's to move and attack. It is possible that unknown Soviet units to the East of the hexes flipped could attack; however, it is very doubtful that units in the Kessel will have the MP's.


[image]local://upfiles/38979/0BC78D60B3774BB1BB69F229422CCB9F.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/8/2019 6:45:22 PM)

This screenshot has been posted before but it shows without any clutter how (later we learned) 1.75 M Soviets are now isolated. That will mean that turn 65 will be focused on opening a supply route while smothering the Panzers. Maybe slowing them down hoping for turn 70.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/DA3FA8DBFEA9434889DBCADEBFB1D180.jpg[/image]



Beria -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/9/2019 9:43:14 AM)

I feel very sorry for the pilots on both sides of this war!!!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
[image]local://upfiles/38979/930A3C893BB34647A7C9E1BDA1A98F0B.jpg[/image]




Zorch -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/9/2019 1:09:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Beria

I feel very sorry for the pilots on both sides of this war!!!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
[image]local://upfiles/38979/930A3C893BB34647A7C9E1BDA1A98F0B.jpg[/image]





[image]local://upfiles/34241/8AA554EDDFB54E69A499E7A57CC06CC4.gif[/image]



Bear1888 -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/9/2019 2:30:48 PM)

can you enable the ZOC so we can better see the frontline? and 630 luftwaffe loses in one turn? holy moly. if that goes on, soon the only flying units of the luftwaffe will be the racing pigeon units.:)



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 2:37:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bear1888

can you enable the ZOC so we can better see the frontline? and 630 luftwaffe loses in one turn? holy moly. if that goes on, soon the only flying units of the luftwaffe will be the racing pigeon units.:)


I think this is an excellent concept to cover. If I could use an analogy. In the US Civil War during 1864 - 1865 General Grant used a strategy of simple attrition. The North had more men, resources, and better logistics to deploy these resources. The South was hurting badly at this point. One battle of note is Cold Harbor. This battle was a disaster from a tactical aspect; however, the numerator of the equation reduced proportionally worse than the denominator and Grant advanced to Petersburg. Let us explore this .. Side A has 100,000 Side B has 200,000. This is exactly 1:2. Now we fight a battle. Side A loses 20,000 leaving 80,000. Side B losses 30,000 a tactically proportionate disaster. However 80,000 / 170,000 is 0.47%. Side A is losing the proportional battle.

So you are right, "a disaster" looking at the one turn in its own cocoon. However, spreadsheets look at a much bigger picture including the overall ability for the Soviets to replace losses vs. the Germans. One more point. In the above example, I described Grant's advance on Petersburg. IN the 8MP game on turn 65 we are surrounding what we know now as 1.75M Soviets. This is well worth short term losses to gain a much more overall strategic position.

So the picture below does not include Soviet turn 65 losses as the game ended in their turn. But the Germans can feel pretty confident that the LW will dominate in 1943. One thing I want to point out here. Much like the batter being blamed for striking out in the last of the 9th inning, or the star striker missing a game tying goal at the 90th minute and extra time .. this picture started game turn 1 and progressed until about game turn 63. M60 got a very bad situation and made the best of it. He guessed wrong on turn 64 and does not have the resources to reverse course.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/6C5082AE66B94F80B9976DD63307F819.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 2:39:06 PM)

The picture below shows the total Soviet aircraft situation. The mud turns would provide some relief - but to both sides. The Germans will be in position to bomb factories in the Urals.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/5AD9A29299B248DB86F3297EF21316D9.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 2:48:38 PM)

The diagram below shows what M60 opened after the Logistics phase. Very simply there is nothing East of the Kessel to hold the Panzer hordes back. There are the movement points to smother the Panzers, but not enough to push the bridgehead back over the Volga. It is very clear that the pocket could be broken, but turn 66 would see another stronger pocket and the imminent collapse of the Soviet Army. The Germans would have 3 more turns to clear Kuby and Saratov, while setting up bombing runs on the Urals. T

[image]local://upfiles/38979/A80D59B0F29A4E17B4C6904D9EB9E659.jpg[/image]



Beria -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 3:10:23 PM)

That is the Mother of all pockets!



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