RE: Turn 65: Sunset (Full Version)

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Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 4:06:40 PM)

The map below shows in detail the MP's of the units nearest to the neck of the Kessel. There are certainly enough MP's to open the pocket, and smother the Panzers. One attack might be possible; although, the initial CV will be less than 2:1 before the fireworks start. The real problem is that 18th Army will replace 4th Panzer Army positions, and another Panzer Army will be joining in to seal the Kessel next turn.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/87D69D4AD0974E8585D5551A3B4CD7CC.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 4:17:08 PM)

In the south you see the Soviet's perspective. The Soviets are poised to lose another 10,000 after 50% goes back into manpower, but worst of all 4 precious units. The Soviets are cut off from railing any more units in this area. (The rails from Stalingrad East and North are cut off). Those Axis cavalry units will join 4 more cavalry units just off screen to the North and cut supply to this whole area on turn 66.

The German air and SU support would make breaking this pocket nearly impossible. The situation would be to salvage and hope for a mud turn.

[image]local://upfiles/38979/3567C3ADB45C4234B09963F4036A02A3.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 5:45:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
[image]local://upfiles/38979/6C5082AE66B94F80B9976DD63307F819.jpg[/image]


This looks familiar to me from the team game - every time the number of aircraft gets down to the black line the Soviet air force collapsed and disappeared from the map. Only when all were in reserve did numbers go up again. It looks like they are about to run out of fighters again. They only just have enough to fill the airgroups they have assuming they created no new ones and there are no inefficiencies in replacements. Below that and you get in the same air spiral of death they had in 1941.



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 6:26:04 PM)

If they had not lost over 2000 fighters from strategic bombing you can see how much better off they would be now. There would be a big margin over that black line.

Axis losses for this turn have been very bad - but the pools built up over the last 64 turns means they will last longer than the Soviets can.



Bear1888 -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/11/2019 7:56:07 PM)

Thank you for your analogy about the civil war. Indeed. Lee won at cold harbor but it was just a Pyrrhic victory because Grant simply refused to retreat over the Potomac like many former commanders and stayed in the south.

If this pocket holds, it will put the German pocket of Kiev in September 41 into the shame.:) what an intense game.



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/12/2019 10:28:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bear1888
If this pocket holds, it will put the German pocket of Kiev in September 41 into the shame.:) what an intense game.

I know when I first saw this I did wonder if it was as bad as some think. The Kessel is wide open in the North East and so can be broken just by walking. There are guards units at Penza that could be moved down to hold the Kessel open next turn, or even push back the few units from centre that crossed the Volga. Many of the units in the North and East can walk out and those in the south and west I thought could walk to the centre of it far from the front and be disbanded. I am not saying this is good news, it would be an Axis win in 1942 and probably a running retreat north of Kuybyshev until mud arrives in a few turns. But the manpower would be preserved and after the winter the Soviet army would be bigger and better again in 1943.

EwaldvonKleist updated me on the disband rules. They not only need to be far from Axis units but need more than enough MPs to arrive at working rail. As the nearest working rail is north east of Saratov there will be few that have that, and those that do will not need to be disbanded anyway. And I understand it from Crackaces some motorised units only have small single digit movement points. So OK it is worse than I thought. But I guess still more than half of that Kessel would escape encirclement?
[image]local://upfiles/53894/9AFBBBD6EF5F4C7CAACB7B93457AAF58.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/12/2019 12:59:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bear1888
If this pocket holds, it will put the German pocket of Kiev in September 41 into the shame.:) what an intense game.

I know when I first saw this I did wonder if it was as bad as some think. The Kessel is wide open in the North East and so can be broken just by walking. There are guards units at Penza that could be moved down to hold the Kessel open next turn, or even push back the few units from centre that crossed the Volga. Many of the units in the North and East can walk out and those in the south and west I thought could walk to the centre of it far from the front and be disbanded. I am not saying this is good news, it would be an Axis win in 1942 and probably a running retreat north of Kuybyshev until mud arrives in a few turns. But the manpower would be preserved and after the winter the Soviet army would be bigger and better again in 1943.

EwaldvonKleist updated me on the disband rules. They not only need to be far from Axis units but need more than enough MPs to arrive at working rail. As the nearest working rail is north east of Saratov there will be few that have that, and those that do will not need to be disbanded anyway. And I understand it from Crackaces some motorised units only have small single digit movement points. So OK it is worse than I thought. But I guess still more than half of that Kessel would escape encirclement?
[image]local://upfiles/53894/9AFBBBD6EF5F4C7CAACB7B93457AAF58.jpg[/image]


There is 1.75 million in the Kessel. Just roughly trying a scenario where the Soviets in I got 1 million snared (500,000) returned to the pool. The big problem is units or stuff to occupy space. Worse .. stuff that can force deliberate attacks. The Panzers can hasty isolation on turn 66.. with Soviet units not putting up a good fight.



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/13/2019 10:39:59 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
[image]local://upfiles/34241/8AA554EDDFB54E69A499E7A57CC06CC4.gif[/image]

Turn 65 at STAVKA
[image]local://upfiles/53894/B06FBB91E1574118AAB73263D2FD30EC.jpg[/image]
OK - whodunit?



Zorch -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/13/2019 11:06:37 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
[image]local://upfiles/34241/8AA554EDDFB54E69A499E7A57CC06CC4.gif[/image]

Turn 65 at STAVKA
[image]local://upfiles/53894/B06FBB91E1574118AAB73263D2FD30EC.jpg[/image]
OK - whodunit?

The Good, the Bad, and the One with the Unloaded Gun.

[image]local://upfiles/34241/94279A54C871482A8B0A0CF166E40F12.gif[/image]



Rokko -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/15/2019 9:25:39 AM)

Long time reader/lurker here, would you mind uploading the final savegame? I would like to look a the final dispositions.



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/15/2019 12:31:50 PM)

Another loss from nothing air result

[image]local://upfiles/53894/2AD1024C52B3426A851A45EDE1E22F4E.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/15/2019 1:05:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rokko

Long time reader/lurker here, would you mind uploading the final savegame? I would like to look a the final dispositions.


Do you mean maps? or the psv?



Zorch -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/15/2019 1:23:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rokko

Long time reader/lurker here, would you mind uploading the final savegame? I would like to look a the final dispositions.


Do you mean maps? or the psv?

And factories.

[image]local://upfiles/34241/701E225E05534C10A1D517E9D3B5EEA2.gif[/image]



Rokko -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/16/2019 5:40:01 AM)

I was thinking about the save game file (the one you can load ingame).

By the way, thanks to everybody involved for the great show. I don't actively play the game myself, but enjoy reading the AARs immensly.



Zorch -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/16/2019 10:34:50 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rokko

I was thinking about the save game file (the one you can load ingame).

By the way, thanks to everybody involved for the great show. I don't actively play the game myself, but enjoy reading the AARs immensly.

+1



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/17/2019 12:29:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus
Turn 65 at STAVKA
OK - whodunit?

Turn 65 at BERLIN
On hearing of Stalin's demise there is a big party at the Chancellery. But the Fuhrer awakes the next morning to find something missing.
What a night that was!
[image]local://upfiles/53894/CB212DB184AE4EA29C0D1D940CD4A386.jpg[/image]



Zorch -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/17/2019 2:14:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus
Turn 65 at STAVKA
OK - whodunit?

Turn 65 at BERLIN
On hearing of Stalin's demise there is a big party at the Chancellery. But the Fuhrer awakes the next morning to find something missing.
What a night that was!
[image]local://upfiles/53894/CB212DB184AE4EA29C0D1D940CD4A386.jpg[/image]

Ask this man about it.

[image]local://upfiles/34241/85333657AE4947278870B8CF00FF5006.gif[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 9:23:21 AM)

There was some industry not evacuated from the Kessel too. There are too many rail hexes to repair now to have any chance of their evacuation even if you could hold the Kessel open.
[image]local://upfiles/53894/1568963484CA4E90A123BC1506B35A36.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 2:01:29 PM)

And I see it is not just the 8th Italian army after Torzhok. The 4th Rumanian army is also taking charge of Germans on the Oka! [:D]
[image]local://upfiles/53894/1E60BC7962DB4974BC572D9D699F681C.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 3:22:19 PM)

South of the Oka a stitched together a picture of how the end of turn 65 looked from the Axis viewpoint.
[image]local://upfiles/53894/234DA5BAD9D3417A831DA8685D476805.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 3:38:10 PM)

And I see using three of the FBDs to make a rail connection across the Caucasus mountains. That is a big commitment of rail repair capacity?

[image]local://upfiles/53894/01D544CF97F24AD4AC827074030F6D94.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 4:17:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

And I see using three of the FBDs to make a rail connection across the Caucasus mountains. That is a big commitment of rail repair capacity?

[image]local://upfiles/53894/01D544CF97F24AD4AC827074030F6D94.jpg[/image]


Turns 61 - 65 the front did not moving very much. In fact near Stalingrad, M60 decided to push the front back .. But .. it became quite clear that Baku could become quite vulnerable with the only Soviet supply point being Baku. It then became quite lucrative to commit the RR units to build rail to support this effort. It is very clear that the Soviet's have been cut off from reinforcing Baku or even Grozny due to the rail lines from Stalingrad now being cut off. Worse, the Soviets are about to lose 6 units and possibly more before the mud starts. This situation is well worth investing in rail ...



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 6:23:23 PM)

Got this screenshot of the start of turn 65 from the Soviet side in the Caucasus.

Normally players repair along the north of the Caucasus mountains and get stuck in Dagestan between the Terek river and Makhachkala. There was no way to outflank the positions going through the mountains as the supply was so bad.

Just counting the hexes having crossed the mountains with the FBDs and even if you carry on with just one or two you would be south of Dagestan by early winter. That part of the world is in the European weather zone so you will have a couple of months of weather to campaign with while the rest of the war is shut down in blizzard.

If they continue to have so few units in the area then they will not be able to defend the mountains and the Terek river. An obstacle undefended is not an obstacle. So it might be possible just to walk to the gates of Baku without much of a fight then?
[image]local://upfiles/53894/EAAD744B9D864A7B8EC7B5CA8E81EBD0.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/20/2019 8:05:41 PM)

quote:

If they continue to have so few units in the area then they will not be able to defend the mountains and the Terek river. An obstacle undefended is not an obstacle. So it might be possible just to walk to the gates of Baku without much of a fight then?


I calculate just enough units to defend the Terek at turn 65 without any more units being surrounded. Unfortunately, as you point out -- I think more German Allied mountain units are headed down here and thus the flank in the mountains could very likely be turned. Made very possible by excellent supply lines.

A look at the German map shows a lot of German Calvary that will cut its way toward the rail lines on turn 66. Clearly, armor would move down here once the blizzard started and the Soviets have no means to shift forces into the Caucasus. A pretty bleak picture indeed ...



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/21/2019 9:45:41 AM)

Counted the hexes you could repair with the two other FBDs, but assumed you would rail other FBDs up once across the mountains in the Caucasus.
[image]local://upfiles/53894/D1A4BFDDFB5A4421AC56290F0877ABBB.jpg[/image]
Until mud I am assuming the main contraint on advances will be supply and not the enemy.



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/21/2019 4:13:29 PM)

Some final thoughts on next steps. If the game had gone on at least there would be a few turns before mud to press home the advantage. A lot of the good units are at Penza and the central front. But the backdoor through Saransk is open. And I noticed the good Soviet units that used to be at the Oka have gone and some very low CVs there. Perhaps some motorised could have been swung round to attempt another pocket?
[image]local://upfiles/53894/4FE75B8D7F9541289B35A180947F763C.jpg[/image]
This screeenshot is from the end of turn 64 to show how I might have moved units then but could still be adapted to start of turn 66.



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/21/2019 4:54:49 PM)

Apart from a few troops on the lower Volga there is no Soviet presence east of the Volga pocket. So it would take as little as one motorised unit to get to the east edge of the map and cut off South Russia from the North. Their only permanent supply source the south would then have would be Baku. If you could cut off the land route and bomb the two ports on the north Caspian coast until they were damaged enough you could then flip control of the whole of Southern Russia. Admittedly it is all desert with no industry and almost no manpower. But it would leave the enclave around Baku many many hexes away from the main forces in the North.
[image]local://upfiles/53894/0FA6C8C4E9C54E77AFC84E2A2C433FB5.jpg[/image]
I have painted this on to a screenshot of the end of Axis turn 64



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/21/2019 5:03:28 PM)

And finally looked at strategic bombing of the fighter bomber factories in the Urals. By my counting of hexes you have airbases in range but need a staging base in enemy territory. The one I marked in this screenshot would do it in an area where you have three panzer armies nearby and virtually no enemy. So I think it would have been possible in a turn or two?
[image]local://upfiles/53894/743C57DDF0A140E0AD892CB25B58293C.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Turn 65: Sunset (6/21/2019 5:06:15 PM)

I see on turn 65 the evacuated Il-2 factories were already in range!

[image]local://upfiles/53894/154DD232AAFE4C4799BB991EBDDE32CA.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Operation Treppenwitz (6/21/2019 5:24:13 PM)

I know I posted from 1147 in this AAR (see http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4250683&mpage=39 ) how the team planned to conduct the 1942 offensive. I am very curious to see how others think it compared to what actually happened. Some of the big points of difference

i) Instead of NOT going into the Caucasus the game did
ii) There was indeed the planned pocket around Saratov. But the southern hook did not travel up both sides of the Volga as planned. And far from having to meet the armies west of Saratov, in the end there was an even bigger pocket formed by closing up to the east of Saratov.
iii) There was no bombing of the Urals - but it still could have happened.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus
Getting to bomb the fighter factories in the Urals in effect meant a victory in the true historic sense - and not just a slow withdrawal to Berlin ....


Unlike in 1941 there would be nowhere to evacuate them to out of range of Axis strategic bombing. But I think this time fighter cover and flak would have been concentrated around the fighter bomber factories. The most damage that could have been hoped for would have been a couple of turns when it was still a surprise and before the Soviet side had reacted. So no true historic victory.

My guess from above would have been a storming success in 1942. A small enclave would have been left around Baku. But the bulk of the red army would end 1942 near Kazan as was predicted in the best case of the Operation Treppenwitz plan.

Nevertheless all the industry that is needed will still be safe in the Urals. With the bad weather the Red Army would be able to recover. And by 1943 the tide would turn. But not soon enough to leave the Soviet side any where near Berlin by turn 225.

@Crackaces - what did you see as the differences/similarities with the plan and was it useful? How would you have seen the next few turns in particular and the course of the campaign afterwards?



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