RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (Full Version)

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Telemecus -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 4:51:24 PM)

Also from the picture it does look like there is a gap in the line protecting Leningrad from the Finns. Which means a Finnish unit can move south of the line and even displace an airbase.



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 5:03:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Twigster
Very little progress was made this week. In AGN's area, the terrain very definitely favors the defenders- slogging through swamps and across rivers, up and down hills makes for extremely slow going.


At this point I would have said you would have Leningrad with a cross river assault at the East end of the Neva.

Sviritsa looks deceptively easier and in fact it is not. Supply gets more difficult and time is running out.

Using at least six infantry divisions (some of the very best are in I corps), and preferably more as reserve activators, good commanders like Model, the four super heavy artillery SUs, StuGs, Pioneers, Flamms and Stukas you would get across the Neva. It is then an easy step to isolate Leningrad by capturing Osinovets. It is an expenditure of points, but at the moment I think you can see it would save you time and units like the 4th Panzer Group could now be heading for Moscow.



You are correct, sir- I did not anticipate Sviritsa to be quite so difficult to get to (if only thedoctorking had retreated)! But while Mud is just around the corner, Leningrad is not going anywhere and I am certain I can get it pre-Blizzard (via your posted direct-assault method or via isolation) in winter. And remember, we are posting a turn behind...

quote:

Also from the picture it does look like there is a gap in the line protecting Leningrad from the Finns. Which means a Finnish unit can move south of the line and even displace an airbase.


Seriously?! I thought I had to wait until Leningrad was taken before Finnish units could come south of the line?




SparkleyTits -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 5:10:24 PM)

They cannot attack south of the line but they can move south of the line if Doctorking does not defend it :)

I concur with Telemecus I noticed a few turns back the defensive CV behind the Neva was 37 I would of definitely pounced there in all haste as the swamps east of the Volkhov have an incredibly high cost in time and low in returns compared to if they have been relocated south to assist the 2nd and 3rd



Telemecus -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 5:11:31 PM)

We've all gone through the Sviritsa phase - it is on paper the much sexier strategy. Unfortunately these boring logistics guys keep spoiling the party ....My suggestion for direct assault is to get to isolate Leningrad via Osinovets. You could directly assault Leningrad itself but that is harder if not isolated first.

And yes indeed the Finns can go south of the no attack line - they just cannot attack south of the no attack line. So if there is a continuous line of Soviet units, no matter how bad, you are stuck. Any gaps and you can seep through. The Finnish no move line is actually a long way south of Leningrad - about 3 rows above Novgorod in fact. So the Finns could walk as far as there if there are no Soviet units in the way. And they can do this even before Leningrad is taken. Beware though if they are surrounded they cannot as a result fight their way back - so always keep a safe retreat available for then.



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 5:31:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

We've all gone through the Sviritsa phase - it is on paper the much sexier strategy. Unfortunately these boring logistics guys keep spoiling the party ....My suggestion for direct assault is to get to isolate Leningrad via Osinovets. You could directly assault Leningrad itself but that is harder if not isolated first.

And yes indeed the Finns can go south of the no attack line - they just cannot attack south of the no attack line. So if there is a continuous line of Soviet units, no matter how bad, you are stuck. Any gaps and you can seep through. The Finnish no move line is actually a long way south of Leningrad - about 3 rows above Novgorod in fact. So the Finns could walk as far as there if there are no Soviet units in the way. And they can do this even before Leningrad is taken. Beware though if they are surrounded they cannot as a result fight their way back - so always keep a safe retreat available for then.


They cannot attack south of the line but they can move south of the line if Doctorking does not defend it :)

quote:

I concur with Telemecus I noticed a few turns back the defensive CV behind the Neva was 37 I would of definitely pounced there in all haste as the swamps east of the Volkhov have an incredibly high cost in time and low in returns compared to if they have been relocated south to assist the 2nd and 3rd


OK, I see... thanks for mentioning some options. I have to do some re-evaluating now.



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 7:42:20 PM)

German turn 13 saw significant advances on the northern front. The German infantry has pushed us back from the Volkhov River at all points. We still have a significant defense before the last port, so I think Leningrad will continue to be in supply for some time, at least a turn or two. Unfortunately, my transport capacity on the lake has plummeted, perhaps because I only hold two ports now? In any case, my clever plan of evacuating a few divisions a turn has been foiled. I got one beat-up division out this turn. So much for the Soviet Dunkirk.

Also, the German advance has cut the rail line to 7th Independent Army north of Lake Ladoga. They appear to have plenty of supplies but the air units I had up there were out of ammunition. I had to relocate them southwards. Too bad, as they were having good success against the Finnish air force.

The German forces south of Lake Ilmen continue a desultory offensive into the hills and swamps of that region. I’m not too concerned. There is one lonely tank division down there and it’s not tank country anyway.

The German air force has almost entirely withdrawn from combat. It was in the Volkhov sector that I encountered a few interdiction attempts while moving. I tried to bomb some air bases but didn’t have enough fighters who could make the trip, resulting in unacceptable losses of level bombers. So I settled for air superiority over the fighting front for this turn, at least. I converted a number of fighter-bomber squadrons to bomber status – about one in three in the Front aviation armies.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/C8E3998DF613479EB5C4789CA29865C4.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 7:43:25 PM)

In the central theater, the German armored spearhead southeast of Smolensk was entirely halted this turn thanks to the sacrificial action of a couple of cavalry divisions that jumped into their position last turn. This gave me a turn’s rest for my Western Front armies, lowering fatigue levels a bit, and allowed me to get good troops around in front of their advance. I still haven’t figured out where that lot are going, so I built secondary lines all around. I’m most concerned about a breakthrough towards Moscow.

As with Northwest Front, there’s a little bit of pressure from infantry on the Bryansk Front lines, not enough to break me but meaning that I can’t do the old “quiet sector” switcheroo with fatigued units from Western Front. Or at least not as much.


[image]local://upfiles/56634/65EEAC1E2D1D41F1A342112B16A09A17.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 7:44:25 PM)

In the south, the German advance continued. I was able to establish a defense in depth in front of the Dnepr, but I expect that German advances will continue in that area. He’s got to get across the Dnepr before winter to have any reasonable hope of disrupting my production.

There are a large number of units in the Odessa pocket. I was planning to evacuate some of them across the Black Sea to Sevastopol but I’m waiting for the Germans to send some actual combat power down there. Otherwise, I’ll start shipping in reinforcements with a view to a winter offensive out of the pocket into the German rear. Why not?


My analysis: there’s four more turns until mud. I expect that the Germans will successfully cut off Leningrad and probably destroy the garrison before that point. There are a couple of points where Army Group South can cross the Dnepr with good management. The offensive in the center is baffling; I don’t really know where he is going to go. A breakout to the south is certainly possible, maybe to Bryansk? I don’t see him capturing Moscow in the time he has left, though, or even setting up for a Moscow push in the snow. Maybe I have underestimated his offensive power once again; only time will tell.




[image]local://upfiles/56634/766CE21DCC2249648B8A381BBB436CD7.jpg[/image]



STEF78 -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 8:52:06 PM)

Well done AAR!

Axis side is clearly behind the curve. With full blizzard and soviet +1, the germans will be suffering a very harsh winter



Sammy5IsAlive -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/4/2017 11:16:10 PM)

As others have said it is going to be a massive uphill struggle from here on in for the Axis. Blizzard is going to be really grim and there is not a lot of territory that can be retreated back into whilst maintaining some kind of threat in 42.

It's a little difficult as there were no screenshots up to turn 6 but it feels like something went badly wrong in at least the South and maybe also the Centre in the first 3 turns. To me at least the first set of screenshots put up by thedoctorking are pretty scary just in terms of the number of counters still left on the board.

Part of me wonders whether WITE2 should include a campaign starting in c. mid July with all the initial moves done. It kind of feels as if the current game balance depends on the Axis player making a certain set of optimal set piece moves in the first 2-3 turns and wiping out large numbers of soviet units. If these moves aren't achieved (either due to player inexperience or a set of really bad dice rolls) it is almost as if the campaign (if not the combat and player enjoyment) is over almost as soon as it has begun.

Or maybe I'm just being a Negative Nancy about the Axis prospects! Either way I hope you both see the campaign through to its' conclusion (do you have any sudden death rules?) as between you this has been a really well written AAR.



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 12:10:27 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

As others have said it is going to be a massive uphill struggle from here on in for the Axis. Blizzard is going to be really grim and there is not a lot of territory that can be retreated back into whilst maintaining some kind of threat in 42.

It's a little difficult as there were no screenshots up to turn 6 but it feels like something went badly wrong in at least the South and maybe also the Centre in the first 3 turns. To me at least the first set of screenshots put up by thedoctorking are pretty scary just in terms of the number of counters still left on the board.

Part of me wonders whether WITE2 should include a campaign starting in c. mid July with all the initial moves done. It kind of feels as if the current game balance depends on the Axis player making a certain set of optimal set piece moves in the first 2-3 turns and wiping out large numbers of soviet units. If these moves aren't achieved (either due to player inexperience or a set of really bad dice rolls) it is almost as if the campaign (if not the combat and player enjoyment) is over almost as soon as it has begun.

Or maybe I'm just being a Negative Nancy about the Axis prospects! Either way I hope you both see the campaign through to its' conclusion (do you have any sudden death rules?) as between you this has been a really well written AAR.


Thanks to everyone for the input! My opening in the south was atrocious, yes. And I could look to do some more pocketing early on. That said, for me its fun game, I am learning much and have never had the feeling the game was about over. Yep, Blizzard will be difficult (even more so for me as I have never played Sov +1), but the Blizzard is still a couple months off. No, we are not playing Sudden Death rules, and yes I plan to see it through. I won't get Moscow but intend to get Leningrad and there is still some time to do things in the south and center. After that, Happy Time will be over and we'll trade places in the driver's seat. I'll remember this moment should thedoctorking take me out entirely during the Blizzard- outside of that eventuality, I'm enjoying the game. [8D]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 4:36:19 AM)

I seem to be behind on my posts so I will put up my next turn before Twigster.

German turn 14 saw the return of the Luftwaffe to the front. I guess a week’s rest was what they needed, as casualties returned to their previous 3:1 or more German advantage. They flew enormous numbers of sorties, though, with interdiction everywhere. I got my first two regiments over 80 experience this turn and generated a Guards air base (not that that actually means anything in game terms but it is a sign that I’m doing damage). I also got some good outcomes out of fighter-heavy raids against Luftwaffe air bases.

In the northern sector, fighting continued in the swamps behind the Volhkov. It turns out that the German success in crossing the river meant that the northern armies were cut off from supply. I guess this must be an effect of the oft-discussed Russian vehicle shortage. The two armies in Leningrad, the 8th and 48th, the army north of Lake Ladoga, the 7th, and the northernmost army on the main line of resistance, the 55th, newly assigned to Leningrad Front, were all out of supply and had to be re-supplied with air drops. I assigned a bunch of new transport planes to bases in the region and moved the 55th Army HQ onto a connected rail hex to hopefully at least restore their supply status. This came as quite a surprise to me. I never noticed this before in solo games, and the German armies that are far from their railhead are still generally in supply. Anyway, I got a good bit of use out of those IL-4 and DB-3 squadrons for once, rather than the generally toothless night bombing missions.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/1E3FCB1EE4B24529A4559A52C83B2FD5.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 4:37:37 AM)

In the center, his push south of Smolensk gained a few more hexes towards Kaluga. I continue to be baffled but presumably there’s some clever plot in store for me.

There was a big concentration of German air power behind the front here. I took advantage to bomb them as much as I could. Lots of SB-2’s went down but they took some Me-109’s with them, which is a good trade in my book.

Bryansk Front has stretched out its lines to take in the sector attacked earlier in his push towards Bryansk. Our lines are thin here, and this is a potential line of advance for the Germans if they give up their Kaluga offensive.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/6D38563340C04FD385C654AF8CB5DC15.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 4:38:27 AM)

In the south, he fooled me by turning back towards Cherkassy. Southwestern Front is stronger than Southern right now, so I felt good to have a turn’s rest in the bend of the Dnepr. I’m hoping that a few more turns will see units regain fatigue and morale levels and dig in, offering a significant obstacle to a renewed offensive in this area. I’d like to keep Crimea connected and hold the Dnepr cities through mud if I can.




[image]local://upfiles/56634/FE279E3DB5534FE2967322917B1D3C14.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 4:46:43 AM)

I don't think that the game is over. I am just as inexperienced as Twigster - this is my first game against a live opponent. So my counter-attack will no doubt suffer from rookie mistakes just like his first offensive did.

I'd say that the first few Axis turns looked a lot like the things that I did as a solo player. It's just that as the Russian player, I was quicker than the AI to get my troops out of danger. I used most of my rail cap in the first couple of turns to back guys away from the advancing Germans and construct a main line of resistance.



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 5:48:08 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits

They cannot attack south of the line but they can move south of the line if Doctorking does not defend it :)

I concur with Telemecus I noticed a few turns back the defensive CV behind the Neva was 37 I would of definitely pounced there in all haste as the swamps east of the Volkhov have an incredibly high cost in time and low in returns compared to if they have been relocated south to assist the 2nd and 3rd


The Finns could certainly march south and take a hex but those are all real units in the second line. I don't think there's much for the Finns to get there. Better to wait for their German buddies to clear Leningrad in a "rattenkrieg". Hehehe.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/AB20F5E0FE10432093B1545F8DAD8077.jpg[/image]



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 1:37:10 PM)

Axis Turn 15

The action in the Leningrad theater this week. 4PG is 10 miles closer to its objective. (Given terrain and MPs, I judged it would take at least two weeks to fall back and set up for the assault and exploitation on Leningrad proper- there being no meaningful time savings at this point, decided to continue on with the drive to Sviritsa).


[image]local://upfiles/50891/773F4E706689469495C9B847B803DEEA.jpg[/image]



Telemecus -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 1:40:14 PM)

is there any industry still worth evacuating in Leningrad?



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 1:44:12 PM)

The Salient.

Though it may have looked like it, the German army was not just sitting still here for weeks. Finally able to make a break, it sadly was still not sufficient to close the pocket. Still, it brings us to Vyazma and will lead to movement on the front. (River barriers and defensive terrain are really helpful for Soviet defense, I have learned. That is something the Axis will largely not have going for it during the Blizzard-yay!).

[image]local://upfiles/50891/A3D7AE8C51EB4F3F8862D70B7305B9F2.jpg[/image]



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 1:48:11 PM)

4 Army beginning to breach another river barrier...

[image]local://upfiles/50891/74DB1323E9134C0FB19C64C6B13BB4E3.jpg[/image]



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 1:56:21 PM)

The South.

Brinksmanship at play- a Soviet joy ride sortie from Odessa is still a possibility, but I am counting on the panzer's mobility to be able to deal with that should it happen. Which reminds me, I need to deal with Odessa. Need to cross the Dnepr, need to finish Kiev... so many things to do- is there enough time?

[image]local://upfiles/50891/6C89C963B7A748B3B5EAAF0F42A8DEAC.jpg[/image]



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 1:59:15 PM)

Turn 15 ground losses.

[image]local://upfiles/50891/B610227138F84571A04977B4BB6997A4.jpg[/image]



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 2:00:11 PM)

Air losses.

[image]local://upfiles/50891/510C6FE68CE84F26A95113CCB61DD888.jpg[/image]



Twigster -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 2:01:03 PM)

Current OOB.

[image]local://upfiles/50891/FBBB733E6F0849E1A2D5E5584279E31A.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/5/2017 9:04:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

is there any industry still worth evacuating in Leningrad?

The BA-10 factory is still there.



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/6/2017 5:32:07 AM)

Axis turn 15 saw the armored forces in the south turn to sweep along the right bank of the Dnepr, headed towards Dnepropetrovsk. I have a good reserve army in that sector so hopefully I can hold the city when he gets there. I spent plenty of AP this turn trying to get Southwestern Front organized, sorting the armies out into recognizable sectors and making sure that everybody was in command. All that fighting in Kiev and around Cherkassy had mixed things up terribly. I am somewhat OCD and this game reinforces that...


I tried bombing Luftwaffe bases down here to bring out his fighters, causing a few casualties but at least forcing him to make sorties.


[image]local://upfiles/56634/22C14EC169EC4F3F8573E29FAAD3FAD8.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/6/2017 5:32:57 AM)

In the central sector, the German flyboys were out in force, no need to encourage them with base bombing. On the ground, there were attacks across the whole sector, with the centerpiece a return to the land bridge region with the combined panzer armies. He stuck a big thumb up into my position, but without strong supporting infantry forces on the other side of the penetration, he was not able to pocket any of my guys. I tried a counter-attack to gain a small pocket on him, but once again the first unit attacked retreated into just the wrong spot and foiled my nefarious plan. Oh, well, pretty much all the guys who were in danger of being pocketed were able to retreat to a solid line to the north and east. I brought an army around from Western Front to back up the Reserve Front guys and bombed the dickens out of his tank spearheads. Hopefully, now they’ve been fighting for five turns steadily, they don’t have too many movement factors left.

Infantry assaults continued north and south of the main zone. A small armored group appeared along the road to Bryansk and another in the northern sector heading for the hills there. Unclear to me what they’re doing there, but I did my best to strengthen Bryansk Front to prevent a breakthrough there.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/8E21CFD900284363984630E022C7BF1B.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/6/2017 5:33:57 AM)

In the north, the big German dive into the swamps continued. I got my 55th Army HQ filled up with supplies, but the units themselves were still relying on air resupply. 7th, 8th, and 48th Armies were similarly short of supplies. Good thing I still have all those long-range bombers. An annoying thing, though – I still had many bombers with many miles left on them and yet after a while I couldn’t make any more resupply missions. I don’t know what the issue is. Anyway, hopefully this turn’s resupply phase will finally bring those 55th Army guys back to life, anyway.

Several of his salients in the north appeared unsupported but in each case I didn’t have enough movement points to get around and isolate him. I have noticed that my well-supplied armored units now have 25 movement points, but up there in the swamp my tanks have the same problem his do.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/A033DBD1DFBD456DA7DF1FD2560BF56B.jpg[/image]



thedoctorking -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/6/2017 5:35:16 AM)

And finally, here is the OOB chart, permitting a quick overview of how we are faring in the war of attrition.

Since turn 9, the German army has remained about the same strength, while their air force is down about 200 planes. However, my army is 300,000 men stronger and has 3,000 more guns. The tank force has shrunk by a little over 2,000 but, best of all, my air force is 800 planes bigger and immeasurably more experienced.



[image]local://upfiles/56634/DA588D59196A4D5A9F92DA62343B2673.jpg[/image]



SparkleyTits -> RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) (12/6/2017 5:56:45 AM)

How far behind your turns is the AAR guys?



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