rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/29/2019 11:00:45 PM)
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Turn 9. Jan/Feb 1941. Allied #1. RN Assessment of the Axis Submarine Threat to Allied Convoys. The RN uses this report to help set and prioritize their convoy ASW escorts (i.e., 0-box) and patrols (i.e., 3/4-box). The threat number (TN) is the product of the highest probability of the axis finding times the number of convoys in a sea area. The greater threat number, or Greater TN, adds a component to the TN that "accounts" for the maximum number of u-boat/submarine flotillas that could reach the sea area with some probability of finding. Both TN and the Greater TN is always greater than 0 and can never exceed the number of allied convoys in a sea area. Note that the TN and Greater TN are not a predictor, or estimator, but a metric to help the RN prioritize resources for ASW escorts and patrols. The higher the number, the greater the risk. [image]local://upfiles/31901/F7924557FD6742CDB35402919C73C5D4.jpg[/image]
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