RE: Witness to World War 2. (Full Version)

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rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 7:14:23 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #9.

The Eastern Front.

1. Three armies/army groups are racing south to first restore the situation there and then push into the Caucuses and capture the Soviet Caucuses oil fields.

2. Kesselring and his HQ-I are railed from Italy to Southern Russia. A armor corps and mech division from Northern Russia are railed to his location.

3. von Manstein is rushing south with an entire army group to engage what remains of the Red Army.

4. The Italian general Graziani with Italian armor and other troops are also moving south towards the counterattacking Red Army.

5. In Siberia, two Panzer armies led by Guderian and Rommel are racing toward Perm, which if captured should seal the fate of the Soviet Union. And Perm will fall if the axis get another impulse this turn. The chance that they will is 42%.

End of Turn. Much to the dismay of the allies the turn continues on a roll of 8 (< 4 required to end). This now means that there's a 60% chance that the axis will get another impulse. The situation looks very grim for the Soviet Union especially given that Japan broke their neutrality pact.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/D834E06C01B64E9E8988D148C9135E3C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 7:57:18 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #10.

Actions. Free France - combine, USA - combine, Great Britain - land, China - land, USSR - land.

communist Chinese. Mao launches a counterattack against the Japanese. His initial assault is automatic (+21). However, 1 factor of defensive ground support reduces the automatic combat to +14.776 assault. The communist don't fight well (thought they make the fractional they roll a 5) and, as a result, lose a division and see two of their surviving attackers disorganized.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/044F799ADF0D490181EA76608FC7E5BC.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 7:58:42 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #10.

USSR Rail. A Soviet infantry army from the Asian Front is railed into Perm as a desperate last minute attempt to hold this vital city.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/909AD669A8174E58BB1DCE987FA36728.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 8:10:34 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #10.

USSR Ground Strike.

1. A Soviet bomber group out of Perm go after Manstein's advancing army. While they do manage to disorganize a German armor division they miss Manstein's HQ-A. The question is now if the turn continues will Manstein risk his HQ-A for a chance to take Perm? The estimated attack odds would be (11/6) x 2 + 2 (inf disorg) - 1 (Germany/Italy attack friction) + 2 (HQ support) = 6.667 assault. This would give Manstein a 52.3% of taking Perm and essentially knocking the Soviet Union out of the war. The risk is that there would be a 33.3% that Manstein's HQ-A and the accompanying Italian mech will be lost. All this assumes, of course that the turn continues (60% chance it does).


2. A Soviet bomber group out of Leningrad miss their targets in the South.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/2B2BE74878F24DF3AC4952ACB3220166.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 8:11:48 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #10.

USSR. The Southern Front.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E8370C4F4B3640F78F1D5985F37466F4.jpg[/image]



Courtenay -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 8:12:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #9.

Actions. Japan - combine, Germany - land, Italy - land.

Japanese-Soviet Neutrality Pact. Japan breaks their neutrality pact with the Soviet Union.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/8BCDEC3357724595979B8F745DB0EFED.jpg[/image]

Yes, I should imagine that "war with the Soviet Union" is the last thing the Soviets would want. [:)]

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 8:12:28 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #10.

End of Turn. To the continuing dismay of the allies the turn continues.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C0921433524242C595B5EA5D474CCD90.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 8:13:06 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #11.

Weather.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/44873D9430A647A49A14AD9D58BF770C.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 8:13:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay


quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #9.

Actions. Japan - combine, Germany - land, Italy - land.

Japanese-Soviet Neutrality Pact. Japan breaks their neutrality pact with the Soviet Union.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/8BCDEC3357724595979B8F745DB0EFED.jpg[/image]

Yes, I should imagine that "war with the Soviet Union" is the last thing the Soviets would want. [:)]

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
[:D]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 10:15:36 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #11.

Actions. Japan - land, Germany - land, Italy - land.

Japan. Southern China. Land Combat. Another brutal land combat for the Japanese in China. Though they won the battle they lost an infantry army and an artillery division.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/581F08EEEFAD45FA8242B024ADDB6294.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 10:19:47 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #11.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern Front. Land Combat (1/3). In their zeal to counterattack in the south the Soviets have left Rostov defended by a single unit. To be fair, when they did this the two army groups converging on the Southern Front from the north were well north. This long turn has allowed them to complete their mission in the north and move to join the fray in the south.

The Wehrmacht missed on their 70% chance to take Rostov. The single MIL army holding the city repulse the defenders. Several "Hero's of the Soviet Union" are awarded among the Rostov MIL army.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/EB6372832C8F4D938F55175E83A8AB6A.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 10:21:43 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #11.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern Front. Land Combat (2/3). Another bloodless battle is fought. This one a victory for the Wehrmacht. Though, not a bad loss for the Soviets, who are forced to retreat and lose no units.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/D5C9197120424E9EA9565B326C1F25D4.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 10:31:41 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #11.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern Front. Land Combat (3a/3). Perm (pre-attack). The Germans make two miscalculations in their planning for an assault on Perm. The first is that they didn't account that there are two factories in Perm which makes the calculation go as follows,

Assault odds = (11/6)*2 + 2 (disorg corps) + 2 (HQ support) - 2 (factories) + 1 (HQ attacking) = +5.667. This reduced the estimated PWIN from 52.3 to 44 and increased the chance of losing both attackers from 33.3% to 36.3%. A 44% chance of taking Perm with a 36.3% of losing both attackers was decided it was well worth the risk. Therefore, the land combat was authorized (i.e., was designated).

However, a second obvious error was overlooked. The PWIN calculations were incorrectly made with number of defenders equal to 1 and NOT 2. This "error" reduced PWIN from the "expected" 44% when the attack was authorized to 25.7% just before the attack was carried out. Even if the correct calculation had been made at the time the land combats were designated, it's likely that this attack would still have been ordered to go forward. It should be noted that this more critical error had no impact on the chance of losing both attackers.

Anyway, too late now. The attack goes forward. With great risk comes the chance for great gain. The world holds their breath as the fate of the Soviet Union hangs in the balance.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/7FACF5923B6249C09E425AA325A714A4.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 10:38:42 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #11.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern Front. Land Combat (3/3). Perm holds and both attackers, including Manstein's HQ-A, are destroyed.

Several in OKH fault Manstein for not waiting on the armor corps in Rommel's army before attacking. However, this would have allowed the Soviets to rail in another army (a 3-factor garrison army) and, more importantly, there's at most a 20% chance that the Germans will get another impulse this turn.

End of Turn. The turn continues on a roll of 10 (< 6 required to end), which now means there's a max 40% chance that the Germans will get another impulse. However, unless the turn continues on for two more German impulse pairs all that's OBE now.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/939065FD245C4E72A989049A15ED7953.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:00:25 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #12.

Actions. Ever power except the Soviet Union pass in order to increase the chance that turn will end after this impulse from 60 to 70%. The Soviets take a land.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E2E425824FD64CACA4E72FC97F2EDF4E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:01:19 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #12.

USSR. Rail. A garrison army is railed from the Asian front to Perm to make good the loss of the infantry army.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/65FD7152692D4FC68F7764F83A63B246.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:02:06 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #12.

USSR. Eastern Europe.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/1EC43329EC8240CE8420FD024340BD99.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:02:44 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #12.

End of Turn. Unbelievable! The turn continues.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/28771E527C38413D8AEE0CD75FFCDD2B.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:03:15 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #13.

Weather.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/85DC0128CF854AAAA51B3F0C12387A95.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:45:53 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #13.

Actions. Japan - land, Germany - land, Italy - land.

Japan. Manchuria. Northern Asian Fronts. The Soviets have all of one land army in all of Asia. Very inviting.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/9ADE2C6A22904BD08A2BB0AFA8AEE466.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:50:50 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #13.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern Front. Land Combat (1/2).

[image]local://upfiles/31901/4755069D20D34FE8BB8679634C2BD622.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:52:50 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #13.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern Front. Land Combat (2/2). The Second Battle of Rostov. The long turn gives the axis a second crack at taking Rostov of which they fully take advantage. Rostov falls and the "Hero's of the Soviet Union" who successfully defended Rostov in the first attack are no more.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E683E1A310CC4F6186B3ADE4A3637021.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:53:22 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #13.

Euro-Axis. The Eastern/Siberian Front.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/2E7BF188453243709754F1ED1DCF45EE.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:54:43 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. Axis #13.

End of Turn. This turn finally ends. The Euro-axis got 7 impulses of fine weather on the Eastern Front, which they used to (almost) the fullest.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/564AF9407CE241E8849BB1590F9271AF.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:55:24 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. End of Turn.

Destroyed and Repair Pools. A bloody turn to say the least.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F031B1ADABBB463080A44AC1296A155A.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:56:13 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. End of Turn.

Partisans. A lot of opportunities for Partisans, but none appear.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F277B20901FD481FBA6E23F7B67463C6.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/10/2019 11:59:42 PM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. End of Turn.

US Entry. The US adds a chit to both the German/Italy and Japanese entry pools. No options are chosen in order to keep the chance of successfully declaring war at the high levels it is currently.

The fight for initiative and who goes first next turn will be critical on whether or not the US can preemptively (attempt) to declare war on the axis powers. Or, is it whether or not the axis can preemptively declare war on the US?

Also, Japan is gearing up for a declaration of war on the Soviet Union. It really is imperative who gets the initiative and what the weather will be.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/362134CD30EB4A0DB547A9816E33A4D0.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/11/2019 2:37:47 AM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. End of Turn.

Use Oil. Euro-Axis. Germany and Italy have 7.8 oil points worth of units that need reorganizing and only have 6 oil points available. Since all the oil comes from Germany they use all 6 to reorganize as many of their units that they can. All Italian units requiring oil to reorganize are left disorganized.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/080FD156902C4C1D963CB8665C51CC81.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/11/2019 2:38:12 AM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. End of Turn.

Use Oil. Japan.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/CB5798C31E0E49EC962356BD430DC4D6.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (4/11/2019 2:38:35 AM)

Turn 17. Jul/Aug 1942. End of Turn.

Use Oil. USSR.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/20283F6AA7EE40B68E086660BB1037E3.jpg[/image]



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