RE: T107, Initiative and VP (Full Version)

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loki100 -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/14/2022 8:38:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

...
I think the idea of the game being scripted is an interesting one - the way I see it is that (with the VP system in place) any game that goes into 44/45 is going to feel 'scripted'. As any major departure from the historical 'script' will result in a sudden death victory for one side or the other. So if you have two roughly equal players the tide will inevitably turn against the Axis in late 42/1943. For me at least if that is happening that is not a negative thing about the game being 'scripted' but a positive thing that the game is reflecting the historical reality???

As far as I can tell from the AARs that have been posted if there is a large enough gap in player ability the game will go 'off script' and will end either by sudden death or by resignation.


my view on the VP system in the game is basically designed around 3 of the tests, the axis auto-win targets for late 42/early 43, the test vs HWM on 1 Jan 45 and then a combination of the Soviet auto-win or Berlin rules for 1945. In a 'balanced' game those should all affect player decision making and ideally be real opportunities or threats that influence choices.

the others are there to put a mis-match out of its misery, gives a natural end point to a game that is one-sided for whatever reason.

I agree in that I struggle to see how historical inputs (reinforcements but also assets such as manpower or tanks) and the NM rules make the game 'scripted'. Once we turn our back on a HOI style game, then any reintroduction of historical constraints bounds the game and the WiTx series so far have a consistent philosophy on all this.

Steven may disagree with me, but I broadly think we are where we are in this game off a series of mistakes. I think I got T1-8 pretty much right (apart from my side tour of the Valdai), I made an utter mess of T10-14 when a series of exciting squirrels grabbed my attention. I think I neutered his winter attacks fairly well (based off some practice and a good logistics system), he 'won' 1942 in that for all I attacked I never really did any damage (in part my squirrels coming home to roost, in part the patch we started under).

But the cost of that win was I emerged on a good defensive line with a good logistics system behind me. That has so far stopped him building any real momentum in 1943.

This is why I don't think the game can be described as scripted. Between player agency and multiple sources of advantage, its often possible to turn something around (or make it worse).

There's a lot said about axis options post-42 but with precious little empirical data. Going by the AARs, most axis vs AI games are seeing the Germans win in 1943, or if they miss the mid-43 check, winning relatively easily vs the 1944 HWM test. There are now 4 or 5 active AARs with a MP game into late 42 or 1943, they are all very different in how the axis is entering the transition phase, which may start to offer a better set of data points for the later parts of the game.

The data doesn't need to come off a detailed AAR, no reason why someone can't describe what is happening in their game and how they feel the Axis forces perform as 1944 moves along and the various VP tests.

While StB is both a good game, and incredibly useful to test out this phase, by its nature it starts somewhere that I can't see any players actually managing to replicate.

Roger



Speedysteve -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/14/2022 4:30:42 PM)

I agree with your points Roger. The only thing I'd add is that it isn't just our mistakes that have got us to this point but also some of the things we've done well that in turn negatively affect the opponent.

Some mistakes from my side (I believe several of these are now clear with the wonder of hindsight and having played the game to this point):

1.) SU production. Being ignorant of the Soviet Artillery situation meant I produced too many of the Army/Corps Bn's which just couldn't fill out. Being unaware of what exactly was the best combination of SU's to attach to the various Corps means I hadn't planned ahead for them to optimise the Corps performance = took time to build and train those up to be attached. On the flip side from playing a bit of the latter war scenario's I knew it was crucial to maximise Rifle Bde's production before the cap reduces. That was achieved. In short much of this is down to hindsight. I have reams of notes now and in my mind I know exactly what I will produce and when in any future games having lived through this.

2.) Mastering the use of refit. It took me quite a while to figure out where was the best place to put units if you want to refit. I strangely found out through trial and error that certain depot locations would always see units refit where as other just sit there for weeks. I can't explain why but it is the case.

3.) Supply - through trial and error understanding where the supply blackspots are. Now I've played to mid-43 I understand the logistics system pretty good (I think) and I'm swimming in supply and have no problem to get it where I want (except Valdai area/Staraya Russa) due to lack of feasible rails/depot locations.

4.) CPP - neglected the real importance of this in the early months of the war.

5.) Trucks - I had no idea how many trucks would be used for the Mechanised expansion needed (and the associated Bde's). In the early 1943 months I had a deficit of 65K trucks. Not the case anymore but I didn't know what I didn't know[:)]

Positive actions that I see:

1.) I think my unit placement for 1941 defence was pretty good. I've no idea how much this materially affected your success in 1941 though.

2.) My 1942 defence (in general) I think was in depth with enough to prevent many substantial breakthroughs. Now (as Roger alludes to above) the agency of this may well have come from the Axis failure of T10-14 giving me a better force strength to use for 1942 defence (for example).

3.) Roger's defensive lines (from late 42-now) have been fantastic IMO. The right terrain location, putting more than 1 division in those hexes exposed to 2/3 sides of Soviet units/those in clear terrain. It's made it like wading through treacle for me thus far (starting to change in the South a bit though)

Just a few more thoughts my side.....



Rosencrantus -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/15/2022 5:34:50 AM)

Would you mind giving an in depth look on your supply lines/depots, logistics report, and the amount of freight you bring in to frontline depots? With how much spotlight this AAR is getting giving some insight to it would be nice. Unless you did already (This AAR is massive I might've missed it).



Speedysteve -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/15/2022 10:48:31 AM)

No problem at all[:)]

Here's my depot layout. Essentially any place that has a railyard gets a depot....shift the priorities between 2-4 to shift the freight from rear to front depots to add in supply build up and release to the front ones when needed.

[image]local://upfiles/4211/5AF0DB64B01240F29CA91A4CA5D82A20.jpg[/image]



Speedysteve -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/15/2022 10:54:51 AM)

Logistics to the Armies:

[image]local://upfiles/4211/870A94569F554854A8F3F3AB36CDD52E.jpg[/image]



Speedysteve -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/15/2022 10:56:39 AM)

Depot summary:

[image]local://upfiles/4211/7F862CCEC4E040F8A3B7240224F7FE3F.jpg[/image]



Speedysteve -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/15/2022 10:58:39 AM)

Turn summary. Only 20 out of 311 units in low supply[:)]

If there's anymore you want to see/ask please feel free[:)]

[image]local://upfiles/4211/AEAA2C3AB7ED4A6DAA947D6D0A3B9F1A.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> Axis logistics (1/15/2022 12:19:23 PM)

T108 – Logistics

I can't use the '8' key as that would be a bit revealing but here are 3 variants of my logistics set up.

I have no long traces, here and there I have odd depot-depot links – of absolutely no practical concern.

This is a relatively quiet sector, the Soviets attack maybe once a turn, some times not at all. Main goal was to meet the 3 hex rule. The immediate depot system behind the front sees a regular flow of receipt and allocation the #4s a few hexes back are full and not currently in use. As I fall back they are ready to take over.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4875/dVuOgt.jpg[/image]

This sees a bit more action, again its the first tier of #4 that see the input/output, the second tier are full and ready to use. I've just dropped Smolensk to #2 to clear some of that out. I'd like to restock around Bryansk as the Soviets are putting a fair bit of pressure there.

You can see that Minsk is in its #4 phase, it'll drop to #2 in a few turns, empty and then I'll refill.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9435/aDenxZ.jpg[/image]

This is probably the main combat zone, as is clear I've just struck back to keep the Soviets cautious. So far more of the front #4 pri depots are in active use and all are doing both receive/allocate and strore.

Some of the deeper bases are either supporting air groups or the digging of big holes in the ground.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9982/MH6qNX.jpg[/image]

Net effect

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9822/9f6V1c.jpg[/image]

Worth noting that my rail lines in the south are mostly yellow, reflecting the higher churn of freight there as I am using far more due to the intensity of combat



loki100 -> RE: T107, Initiative and VP (1/15/2022 12:31:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve

I agree with your points Roger. The only thing I'd add is that it isn't just our mistakes that have got us to this point but also some of the things we've done well that in turn negatively affect the opponent.

...

Positive actions that I see:

1.) I think my unit placement for 1941 defence was pretty good. I've no idea how much this materially affected your success in 1941 though.

2.) My 1942 defence (in general) I think was in depth with enough to prevent many substantial breakthroughs. Now (as Roger alludes to above) the agency of this may well have come from the Axis failure of T10-14 giving me a better force strength to use for 1942 defence (for example).

...

oh agree, a 'mistake' can be either made without any help or simply that is the best available due to your opponent's actions [;)]. Xhoels excellent Axis WiTW makes that point, at one level it doesn't matter if the Allied player was too cautious or felt they had no choice but to be very cautious, he shows what happens if the Axis player gains the time to build up

so (1), yes it was constantly annoying, in the end the Axis weapon is mobility not combat power and you cost me a lot of MP. (2) was well done and the best approach, as long as I couldn't escalate a victory to a large pocket (a hex here or there being of little value) then that is how to absorb the axis 1942 offensive. Just it was too much in the sense you had too many units so there was never a point where the game opened up (& that links back to late stage of the 1941 offensive)



loki100 -> Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/20/2022 7:58:33 PM)

T112 - 8 August 1943

Just realised we are half way through the game, it has to end on 215 (4 August 1945) when the Allies decide to flatten Berlin – that of course assumes it lasts that long. If it goes beyond May 45 its a draw, if I reach the point where Berlin disappears ... well I win (a marginal victory admittedly).

Anyway, its a point where a post is called for?

One overarching point, I've played this phase as the Soviets twice in a 1941 campaign and my broad feeling is the Axis only start to fall apart right at the end (ie late September) with this then followed by the usual autumn lull. Now every game is different but so far this seems to match that pattern. The Soviets have opened up the front south of Kharkov but I have the assets to drive them back (to some extent). I've also reached the point where attacking just with infantry is pointless – unless its for a really good reason.

That's from last turn, but makes the point. At least at this stage, my infantry formations can still defend fairly well.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4038/4GOdGi.jpg[/image]

No change in the VP charts – I've actually picked up a couple from the Theatre Boxes, if the HWM really comes into play then this could add up to something useful.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8002/aEn0ZH.jpg[/image]

Turn chart, note the huge reinforcement.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7936/hmRqUy.jpg[/image]

This is the first of three batches of unexpected bonuses from TB disasters. Now most of that is short lived and may as well go to Italy or the Ballkans but I'm due some German units in the next turn or so. Since these go to the reserve, in theory I can place them anywhere.

Related to that is a large allocation of LW formations, I send the night fighters to the West as they are no practical value on map.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5895/V779in.jpg[/image]

So quick review of the TB. Italy seems a good target for most of that allocation but some can go to the Balkans, may as well slow things down and see if that triggers a few more VP.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3613/mc1RVs.jpg[/image]

Hard to show too much on map, since I have currently an obsession with making big holes in the ground. But the Leningrad-Novgorod sector has been quiet for a few turns. Along the line down to Bryansk, Soviet pressure is steady, its not an area where mostly I can do much if they do breach the line but fall back, fortunately at the moment there is plenty of poor terrain even if I abandon my forts.

I've just hit back around Bryansk as I want to hold that as long as I can. Its actually somewhere I can retreat with ease but it unpicks the lines in the N Ukraine.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/594/DRd5gw.jpg[/image]

The Ukraine itself was quiet this turn. Last turn I counter-attacked near Kharkov and in the far south and that seems to have encouraged the Soviets to take a break.

While Kharkov is clearly lost, I'll cling to it as long as I can. Its potentially a huge depot and its the sort of place that starts to make a real difference to Soviet manpower recovery.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9130/lOwKEp.jpg[/image]

OOB, not much happening at this level.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1606/jz1IVu.jpg[/image]

Manpower pools, I can still fit out most damaged German units but clearly that is limited if I start actually losing units. Happy to push the Rumanians into exposed spots as its easy to refit them. The Hungarians are of actual value for defesensive work.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4757/YsB5EJ.jpg[/image]

Not a huge amount of actual combat but where it happens we both take heavy losses. The exception is in some situations I still win big.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8563/wW1n3K.jpg[/image]

Ground losses

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3086/YF7Iq4.jpg[/image]

Air losses – the VVS has gone into hiding in the last few turns, I'm well within my trained pilot allocations and have plenty of planes.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1604/AhmhFZ.jpg[/image]



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/20/2022 10:59:19 PM)

How strongly can the theatre boxes events be influenced? If you put, say, 500k extra men into Italy in early 1943, it wpuld be impossible for the allies to land and therefore no Italian surrender. Is this possible ingame with a massive committement?



Stamb -> RE: Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/20/2022 11:04:57 PM)

It is not. You can only delay events in TB. No alternative history.



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/20/2022 11:12:56 PM)

But would 500k men delay the Italy invaded and surrendered event out indefinitely or at least to '45?



Stamb -> RE: Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/20/2022 11:32:31 PM)

There was an answer somewhere on a forum. I might be wrong, but I think few month is the most what you can get. Also after some point there is no point of additional reinforcements. You can move even whole eastern front to Italy :) but it will not change anything.



loki100 -> RE: Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/21/2022 8:21:16 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Stamb

There was an answer somewhere on a forum. I might be wrong, but I think few month is the most what you can get. Also after some point there is no point of additional reinforcements. You can move even whole eastern front to Italy :) but it will not change anything.


well, good advice is not to believe everything you read [;)]

no-one is playing the Western Allies, indeed they do not exist except as part of causing attrition and the event chain so yes, the game doesn't allow the Germans to invade the USA.

in this case, if I dump those Italians into Italy and the Balkans I'll get two things. One is to delay Italy's exit by some time (prob not much and actually I don't really care) but till then there is the scope for some VP, if I pick up 4-5 (feasible over a couple of months) that is the time bonus for a city lost to the Soviets

the wider point is there a near endless sea of posts about how badly the game treats the axis side, esp in the mid/end game. Well I'm not convinced. I've just had 150k men (& a number of very useful German units) that will influence the game heavily (& I can use the Germans exactly where it suits me).

I'll get a load of first rate mountain formations when Finland surrenders, I might need to send some to Norway to match the theatre demands but most can go anywhere - and they are ahistorically exceptionally useful in Hungary

When the Falaise event fires, 9 turns later I get another dump of formations which again can go anywhere.

Across those events its near enough 2 complete armies of free reinforcements



Speedysteve -> RE: Well that is half the game completed - Aug 1943 (1/21/2022 8:33:34 AM)

Brilliant!

….and poor old Speedy just gets vodka from Uncle Joe…no free formations for me to use….where do I sign this peace treaty?[;)]

In that case please give me access to your WE TB and I’ll dump 10 rifle corps in there to help delay Falaise…I’ll also ensure Kingisepp remains Axis to prevent Finland falling [;)]



Speedysteve -> T112 - Mid-August and mid-War (1/21/2022 9:09:42 PM)

Well....As our friendly Abwehr commented after their local counter attacks around Kharkov I decided to give my boys a well earnt rest for a week. Fresh beetroots and vodka was bought forward...With the beetroots increasing CPP and the vodka increasing morale the boys were eager to advance again....huzzah!

Most of my renewed efforts were in the South again. Most of our attacks were successful...some enemy areas are beginning to buckle under the pressure. After heavy fighting Kharkov fell...amazingly there were colossal stores of vodka found un-opened by the Nazis! Most welcome Herr Loki....most welcome.

Not all attacks were successful though and almost 1/2 my weekly AFV losses were caused by an attack on the 24th Panzer Division....when things go wrong they still go really wrong. Experience and quality still matter!

At least I'm now having some AFV's with 85mm guns being produced (KV85 and SU85)....it's something.

[image]local://upfiles/4211/FF692E943A194FACA0FC065C585CE100.jpg[/image]



Speedysteve -> RE: T112 - Mid-August and mid-War (1/21/2022 9:19:32 PM)

In the very South more fun was had. All attacks were comfortably successful except, surprisingly, an attack by 3 of my Mountain Divisions against a lone LW Division(!) Needless to say Vodka rations have been reduced to these men for a week. The Axis is in an uncomfortable position down here. They do have a Pz Corps around here but I have some nice reserves and a plan to smash these positions in the near future.....

[image]local://upfiles/4211/1EF87FCC756C40B78D44E1B8273BBAC0.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> T113 - things happen (1/23/2022 8:48:30 PM)

T113 – 15 August 1943

Well things are finally happening so I'll do more regular reports.

Main thing was the loss of Kharkov (as in the Soviet report above). Just have to accept that if the Soviets really concentrate, these are indefensible, but even at the worst extract a high price.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3865/dGWdkS.jpg[/image]

No action north of Bryansk, I gave up some ground by choice to create a small local reserve – I assume the Soviets will try to get Smolensk.

As I noted a few posts back, on some sectors the rail geography will really hurt the Soviets so time to start stressing their supply lines – in time for the autumn rains.

So 6A has fallen back on a long prepared line, that will take some dismantling then to the Desna, note the only E-W rail here runs via the Sumy sector and that has a rare batch of poor terrain (& many more holes in the ground).

That sector south of Bryansk is horrible for the Soviet logistics.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4341/AWkbG5.jpg[/image]

To the south, all those Soviet attacks extracted a price, I had to pull out a lot to refit (no point leaving low TOE formations in the line), as you can see at the foot, there was a set of battles around Osipenko where I forced them to retreat from their gains.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2871/W8qo6v.jpg[/image]

I wasn't expecting an outright shatter but will gladly take it.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1451/ZCBQD7.jpg[/image]

My logic here is two fold. I really want the Soviets to be ultra-cautious with their mobile assets and this sort of counter-blow helps reinforce that mind set.

I also want to protect Zaporozhye and the only way to do that is to stop the Soviets reaching it.

Which takes us back to the VP chart, for the moment auto-win is out of reach so I can accept the loss of the base VP, its all about coming out ahead on the time aspect. There are 5 cities sort of at risk – Smolensk, Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Sevastopol. I gained + 20 on them and in theory the Soviets could get +30.

I've written off Sevastopol, I don't think Kiev is going to fall before T127, so the Soviets can gain in a range from 6-24. At the moment Smolensk is out of range but that could change (& I got nothing for it), so its how do I trade my +8 for the Dnepr bend? If I hold them both to around T127 that is a big shift in my favour – the sort of shift that makes the December 1944 HWM test interesting.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2034/DjJzto.jpg[/image]

A costly turn but the Soviet tanks paid a price. The VVS remains in hiding so no point in showing the air losses.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6949/AUPRDs.jpg[/image]

All those nice reinforcements from last turn are heading off to their new locations – exception is 10 Pzr as I want it to regain experience before it goes to the map. With some luck, that should give me a few delays and/or VP till Italy bails out – probably late October.



loki100 -> T114 - a brief lull (1/24/2022 8:37:09 PM)

T114 – 22 August 1943

A quieter turn, the Soviets seem to be digesting their gains and not really pushing up to my new defensive lines. I could have attacked again in the south, but decided a regain of CPP was of more practical value.

Rather optimistically I'm starting to scan the weather chart but no sign of significant bad weather for some time I fear.

All my recent reinforcements are now allocated to their new homes, a bunch of NF went mostly to the west this turn. The only shortfalls are in Finland and the Balkans for the air/day lines so I am hopeful of a steady stream of VP, at least till Italy surrenders. This turn I had +1 for the Western TB.

So back to discussing VP as that is my real focus at the moment – and this is why I'd never play without the VP system. It imposes a constraint that is missing if the game is just about on-map deployments, so you don't have a 'stand fast' directive, but you can end up doing things of marginal military value simply for the VP.

Equally it creates a nice tension between using assets for a gain now at the risk of longer term bad effects.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6062/2q0tEd.jpg[/image]

I've only shown VP in the USSR and Rumania, you have to add +36 for Helsinki (it will fall and it will give a +6 bonus). There are now +130 for the USSR and +60 for Rumania. So if that is the situation at the end of 1944 the Soviets meet the HWM (they will have 633 -incl Helsinki). If I still hold Rumania that drops their baseline to 573 (ie they lose vs the HWM test), unless they also get at least a net +23 from time/TB interactions.

Now I don't think that I can deny that, the +6 for Sevastopol is a given, same I suspect with Pskov and Talinin (so that is 18), a few on time captures solves the gap. But if we go into the end game with a Soviet score in the low/mid 600s then I can stop worrying about the auto-win conditions – which simplifies my options and ability to use the likely poor weather in early 1945.

Or in other words, this side of a disaster on the Smolensk-Minsk axis, for now the Ukraine is where I need to focus. Its worth trading off some long term assets for short term control of the pace of their advance?

Since it was a quiet turn, lets wander off into the industrial reports.

This is for Germany (and active pools), only.

Manpower is ok, clearly very vulnerable if I need to refit entire divisions but ok to match off my current losses, Plenty of planes.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8150/pn3XQT.jpg[/image]

Doing ok for pilots.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7712/cJ2FiC.jpg[/image]

Tank pools – not great but much as expected. Note that the expansion of Heavy Pzr battalions, more TOE slots and losses are reducing my Tiger stocks.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3862/wz3Zgz.jpg[/image]

Artillery, this is going to get worse as my units get chewed up but for the moment not too bad. In my AI game, the 'tactical nukes' routine ended up stripping almost all my artillery out of the divisional TOEs and I disbanded most of the SU. My guess is that in this game, as long as I avoid large pockets, I should be able to manage things better.

Just had a cluster of heavy AT SU (with the 88mm), and these are all lining the Steppes in the south. Can't be good for Soviet armour.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/439/5qJiNM.jpg[/image]

This flips the view to Rumania only. I've been leaving them in the front lines as shock absorbers – realise this gives up wins but I can trade their manpower (now of finite value) for CPP/Soviet losses – and still readily refit the wrecked formations. Very much the opposite of how I handle them in the early game.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2417/wEg1n2.jpg[/image]

OOB, basically flat lining for us both, suspect quite a lot of Soviet mobile formations are in the reserve training up.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4452/ziFQgW.jpg[/image]

Loss chart, mostly inter-turn attrition apart from a few Soviet attacks. I've lost 44 Tigers so far.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1684/8eECyO.jpg[/image]



Lovenought -> RE: T114 - a brief lull (1/25/2022 2:47:57 AM)

That's some insanely low production rates for Romania. I didn't realise it was that bad.
I am reading that correctly, right? Most Anti-Tank or Artillery guns are produced at a maximum of 1 or 2 per week?

Can you see how much they are getting in imports from Germany? Is that meeting their needs instead?



loki100 -> RE: T114 - a brief lull (1/25/2022 6:53:26 AM)

there is some but not a lot, there is also some scripted production in the event log (this is for the turn after that table but I doubt its much different).

so yes, as Rumanian formations lose their heavy weapons, then its not easy to replace. Given how I'm using them now its not too important as long as I can replenish the infantry elements



[image]local://upfiles/43256/85C2B9A6DF9E4C98B3E0A0A4B88A25F7.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> T115 - ambushing Chuikov with some cake (1/28/2022 10:14:58 AM)

T115 – 29 August 1943

In the end its probably going to be meaningless, but that is another +1 on the VP charts.

Weather remains clear, maybe some light rain up around Leningrad next turn.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7392/C39U0w.jpg[/image]

Anyway, decide to try something different, the heavy bombers of L1 are re-equipped with their largest bomb loads to attack the Soviet railyard at Kursk – my logic is that must be key to their logistics network on the central sector.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7894/6QVzel.jpg[/image]

Did enough pre and post attack recon to trust the claimed result. No idea if its worth the effort, almost all my losses were flak but if true that is a bit of a mess for a while.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2352/xhwY0b.jpg[/image]

Anyway, decided to remind the Soviets that I still have very mobile formations, really committed my recon assets so had a decent idea of their reserves (I may well regret this statement when I get the turn back)

Elements of 1 and 3 Pzr A struck back around Kursk – in addition to the shown battles a lot of HQ went scuttling off looking for safety. I managed to surround a number of stacks so a normal retreat escalated to a rout.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/882/kjXhzl.jpg[/image]

The rest of 1 Pzr and 17A attacked south of Kharkov. Again, took advantage of the ability to cut off their spearhead first and then generated a set of routs.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6307/eBD8Lc.jpg[/image]

Both these are quite a gamble, I've weakened sectors to gain critical mass, so one outcome is a wider collapse of my lines – but as long as its not ending in pockets, at worst I just get chased out of a line a few turns earlier. At best, that might force a pause.

Finally 4 PzrA struck on a very narrow sector and this time I've gambled on a pocket in 'operation lets upset Chuikov' – I think its safe unless my recon has really failed me.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9404/VYC7AM.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8923/RPlCSf.jpg[/image]

Fairly predictably, losses were high but I either defend passively or take my chances – and regret it badly if I've miscalculated.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7478/93UUvS.jpg[/image]

Air losses were brutal too.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1443/nCqZF7.jpg[/image]



Jango32 -> RE: T115 - ambushing Chuikov with some cake (1/28/2022 11:17:19 AM)

You've accidentally posted the ground losses again instead of the air ones.



loki100 -> RE: T115 - ambushing Chuikov with some cake (1/28/2022 12:40:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jango32

You've accidentally posted the ground losses again instead of the air ones.

ah:



[image]local://upfiles/43256/2397577CE12B4450907310062C293B29.jpg[/image]



Stamb -> RE: T115 - ambushing Chuikov with some cake (1/28/2022 1:07:53 PM)

It would be nice to hear if railyard bombing had any real effect on logistics from comrade Speedysteve. Ofc when he will be in Berlin, not now :) Or maybe in private message, I promise not to give any info to loki!



Speedysteve -> RE: T115 - ambushing Chuikov with some cake (1/28/2022 3:02:39 PM)

Well....Nothing to hide on that part since it's a moot point. I'm swimming in supplies. Only 17 of 298 on map units have less than 75% supply. The amount of freight received at Kursk was almost identical to the previous turn before the damage (c.7K) which is well below it's maximum capacity anyhow. Loki has bombed it again the following turn and it is very damaged now receiving almost no freight. Once more not a problem though since I've lots of other depots which receive all they need to supply my men with what they need....biggest loss was one of the Axis bombs blew up a crate of vodka....swines!



Stamb -> RE: T115 - ambushing Chuikov with some cake (1/28/2022 3:31:42 PM)

Oh. I feel sorry for your vodka losses, the most important item for SU!



loki100 -> T116 - a quick exit (1/30/2022 7:01:11 PM)

T116 – 5 September 1943

Well at first glance, that provoked a fair bit of violence in return – on checking most of my 'tank' losses were from SU not the core armoured formations.

No change re the VP situation.

Despite some pressing need, leaving 10 Pzr in the reserve to improve the experience of its key elements, no point just losing the tanks in the first battle.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9798/Jjbofa.jpg[/image]

Sicily surrendered, so the clock is ticking on Italy, this track seems to be pretty much running on schedule.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8978/KEeMO2.jpg[/image]

Decided to repeat last turn's air raids on Kursk, see if I can escalate the situation, reduce the wider recon substantially to avoid running down too many of my assets.

I'd reduced the effort from 3 days to 2 (as last time the third raid was pointless), seems I could have gone to just a single raid.

Add that to the 50% damage from last turn and the railyard is at 100% damage.

Since the VVS doesn't seem to be contesting this, I may as well keep at it, its probably the best use of the heavy bombers and it can't be helping their logistics.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8375/G7I70C.jpg[/image]

So to the map, a lot of Soviet attacks on the northern sector but those lines are still holding, starting to fray as I pull off to refit etc but broadly even where I give up one fort line I can substitute poor terrain.

The south was a little bit more active.

I gave up ground at Bryansk – while what is to the west is open terrain its also a problem to supply (from the east) so I can control stuff that way – in the end this will force a retreat onto the Smolensk defensive lines but that is inevitable.

South of Kursk I had enough fresh assets to repeat a limited form of last turn's attacks, I can use some of those highly mobile brigades to cut off units and then escalate a normal retreat to a rout. No point dreaming of pockets but this is a good substitute.

Put that win with last turn's damage to some Tank Corps and with some luck that will reduce any pressure on this sector for a couple of turns – really that is all I can hope for now.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/837/TROEMq.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3484/O1mItf.jpg[/image]

On the Kharkov-Poltava sector, pull back, no reason to try and repeat last turn and I can rest/refit a lot of formations this way.

The big choice was what to do in the south – the pocket was broken, so thats a fairly clear hint that there is no point aiming for them any more. But the Soviets seem to be strung out and weak.

Here, I again over-committed my recon assets to try and gauge what they had moved up.

In the end I kept things simple. I doubt I'll be seeing the 77 Rifle Corps for a few turns.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7529/oJtczl.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/769/712K3Y.jpg[/image]

I also cut off and routed another Rifle Corps. So decided best thing was to give 4 PzrA a well earned break. Its an operation I can repeat if the chance arises.

More generally with these cut off raids I'm trying to encourage the Soviets towards rear area security – more that is sat back stopping me cutting things off, the weaker their front line is.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3803/PA4OH6.jpg[/image]

Fairly clearly I can't sustain this level of combat operations, but then I don't need to do this sort of thing turn after turn.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1552/DH0lZQ.jpg[/image]

Still just about operating within my trained pilot allocation, the VVS still suffers when it commits.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2639/zSpXCL.jpg[/image]

No sign of Autumn though.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1676/MpSfWo.jpg[/image]

Keeping an eye on this chart at the moment, Soviet manpower reserves are flatlining (despite their gains such as Stalino), if I can keep their losses high, then they really can't divert manpower to expanding their on map forces.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3963/18wz6w.jpg[/image]

Which is indeed what seems to be happening. No sign their allocation to the active TB is going up either.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3748/u54mlF.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> T117 - recounting this and that (2/1/2022 10:37:41 AM)

T117 – 12 September 1943

Picked up another Theatre VP this turn. Starting to run out the clock on Smolensk (worth a max time bonus of 4 now), so that gives me a bit of freedom on that sector.

Overall tempo slowed a little, no attacks north of Smolensk and relatively limited elsewhere. No sign of bad weather yet.

Air war, swapped the city target to Orel, if this has any payback its not immediate but adds to the problems I strongly suspect are facing the Soviets as their advance picks up tempo – as it has to.

Well could have done the job with one raid on that evidence.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6415/nrAAvf.jpg[/image]

In the end, action (for me) that turn was limited, did the usual poke behind the lines at Kursk with a fast brigade (most of my mobile units have 45+ MP) but decided on no more than trashing an already weakened Tank Corps. I could do with letting my units have a rest (they are a very finite resource) and sort of suspicious that the opportunity for another raid was there. Since I have done it twice, I suspect being presented with exactly the same gap a third time is more a trap than an opportunity.

Losses down on recent turns, ideally don't want to see close to 1-1 so re-organised the front lines to reduce my exposure.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1014/MHHNkE.jpg[/image]

So by my recokoning, probably 4 more turns till the Autumn rains. I'll discuss the specific issues of the 1943-44 mild winter in a later post as it has some bearing.

As an overview (the red lines are the front lines at the start of June), as in the reports, the northern part of the front has mostly been static. I've pulled back here and there to shorten the front or if the Soviets managed to open up a gap. I can't strike back so anything lost stays lost and I have quite a commitment here – which of course has implications elsewhere.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4250/vdPkob.jpg[/image]

I've recently lost Bryansk and the surrounding regions but given I lost Kursk and Stalino in the late spring, I'm actually surprised how little I've lost here. I know I put a lot of effort into screening the Dnepr bend but generally that has paid off far better than I'd expected.

My redeployments here are partly with an eye to the E-W rail links. As is clear (and to be expected) the Soviets are fine for resources at the moment – they must have a full rail net and I never captured places like Rostov or Voronezh. So this phase its not so much about what they can repair but what they have that can be repaired. This is particularly relevant along the Desna and then west towards Gomel – one reason why I am hanging onto Sumy and Poltava.

In VP turns, as I suspected the short term is about the time bonus for Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporoshye. In relative terms I gained +8 on their capture so at the least I'd like to trade off no more than that. To achieve that I need to hold Zaporozhye till at least T120 or Dnepropetrovsk to 122. T120 also coincides with the likely arrival of bad weather. So if I manage to cling on to there, I may well pick up a net gain on the exchange.


[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7086/e6cXTx.jpg[/image]

While doing a bit of a catch up, maybe interesting to look at the state of my rifle divisions – this is for German units only and excludes the LW formations.

Some rough and ready statistics. The median (ie the easiest to calculate) morale and experience is 70 (so above the NM), the median %TOE is 83% (which reflects how relatively quiet half the front has been), cv of 15, cpp of 96 (ditto really).

Excluding elite units the highest morale is 81, experience 79 and TOE% is 97. Flipping that around, lowest morale is 54 and experience of 45, by the look of it that unit has been heavily engaged and had a major refit.

Good its going to Italy soon – but its a warning of what is to come.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1893/XjpQbO.jpg[/image]

Some other aspects are a bit easier to describe. This is (again) just German infantry divisions (not LW) so I have 138 with an average manpower of 14,000 men and 149 guns.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6030/ZZSgNE.jpg[/image]

Their notional TOE calls for 177 guns, so at the moment not bad (but going to get worse as I take more heavy losses).

They notionally need 336 rifle squads each (so a total of 46,368) and in the divisions I have just under 38,000 (plus 1300 damaged) – so my front line combat strength comes out around 82%.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4623/UKGGwc.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7095/DhMVjh.jpg[/image]

Globally I'm missing around 100,000 men from the rifle squads (remember they are in almost every TOE I have) which clearly I am never going to make up.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/147/HCqDXL.jpg[/image]

So, I think that gives some idea. At the moment, on average my infantry is a decent defensive tool, it can only attack when exceptionally well led, hitting something weak or in support of the Panzers (even then it takes heavy losses). Pity its going to get worse.



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