RE: T121 - the attack on Moscow (honestly) (Full Version)

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Stamb -> RE: T121 - the attack on Moscow (honestly) (2/12/2022 3:15:45 PM)

Thanks for the info. I was not able to find how to check current ice level on map. I was trying to hover over river, right click on it - but I can not find any info. So I have to visually identify if it is frozen or not. Any way to view current ice level on a map?



xhoel -> RE: T121 - the attack on Moscow (honestly) (2/12/2022 5:03:33 PM)

@Stamb: You dont hover over the river itself but over the adjecent hex. That will show you the river direction (in relation to hex) and the ice levels in brackets.

[image]local://upfiles/57112/527B8636F00540919B651ABB00C91FDD.jpg[/image]



Stamb -> RE: T121 - the attack on Moscow (honestly) (2/12/2022 5:22:58 PM)

Thanks [&o]. I was using this feature to check if it is minor or major river but did not know that there is also ice level.



loki100 -> T122 - Waiting for the rain (2/13/2022 4:34:57 PM)

T122 – 17 October 1943

Possibly the most important thing to check this turn – looks like I get a break next week except in the Crimea.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5194/zR9Opy.jpg[/image]

Still entertaining myself by bombing railyards across the Soviet Union, was tempted to Moscow again but felt it was best to spread my visits around. In the end this is not about hitting current depot capacity (all this damage can be offset by HQ deployments) but of the ability of those railyards when called on to supply depot-depot freight movement capacity.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2435/Wu6UrI.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8785/5Rr4r7.jpg[/image]

At one level I have gained what I wanted from the battles in the south as the time bonus for the Dnepr bend is now less than what I picked up, should hold them over the next couple of turns which will give me something to work with in the next phase.

Focus now is on the time bonuses for Minsk, Odessa and Lvov – my working assumption is that Talinin and Pskov can't be held long enough, but how I do on the defense of Minsk has a lot of bearing for AGN.

So, to start that phase I actually generate some reserves. Long planned retreat towards Smolensk, the rail lines to the south are a real problem for the Soviets – just in time to meet a combination of higher MP and niggling interdiction.

Not only does this free up the equivalent of an infantry corps but I have the Pzrs that are arriving as well – at some stage soon 3PzrA is going to get seperated from the other two so has to be able to stand on its own.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9464/ibFFjN.jpg[/image]

3 PzrA itself hit back, the dual rail towards Gomel being worth defending.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4154/gVEQjb.jpg[/image]

1 and 4 PzrA worked together to wreck the Soviet spearhead near Poltava – that should go some way to allowing me to control the Dnepr bend for a few more turns.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9834/gkmjAO.jpg[/image]

Usual tactical trick, isolate and rout – even with the possibility of heavy rain next turn there is no point trying for actual pockets.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4226/mm8WOH.jpg[/image]

Soviets drove in the Rumanian pickets around Melitopol so pulled back to the next delay line.

Its going to be some time before they have a decent depot network on that sector.

Seems like the Soviets have finally worked out the Crimea has been empty for the last 6 weeks.

As above, can't gain any time bonus here so not worth the diversion of formations better along the Bug. Not least, for the whole of this southern sector, I'm relying on logistics not combat power to slow the Soviets.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9730/j6bHUK.jpg[/image]

Decent amount of damage – given that most of the Soviet losses are off their Gds formations.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2426/LJDjLq.jpg[/image]

My guess is the Red Army is going to be around 6.2m for some time going forward. Now qualitiatively that gets better and its clearly powerful but its only a 3:2 ratio – more to the point it makes it hard for them to do all the good things – echelon attacks, rest and refit, secure flanks, especially where the front lines stretch. They have to trade these off, and I suspect elsewhere can't really concentrate to break a well fortified line – hence the stalemate north of Smolensk.

If I concentrate 3 Pzr Corps on a sector then I can do a lot of damage.

The Rumanians have recovered their losses, but have a lot of low experience elements now, so if I can want to keep 3 RuA out of the line for a while.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2228/CLpxMa.jpg[/image]

But a few turns of rain would be very welcome – which seemed to happen as I ran the end turn routines.



Stamb -> RE: T122 - Waiting for the rain (2/13/2022 5:31:20 PM)

Lindemann and Model as an army group leaders. Did you assign them yourself or it happened automatically?

Wouldn't you want Model as a corps leader in the most important sector?



carlkay58 -> RE: T122 - Waiting for the rain (2/13/2022 7:08:11 PM)

quote:


Seems like the Soviets have finally worked out the Crimea has been empty for the last 6 weeks.

As above, can't gain any time bonus here so not worth the diversion of formations better along the Bug. Not least, for the whole of this southern sector, I'm relying on logistics not combat power to slow the Soviets.


This is near heresy - using the Soviet 41 tactic against them in 1943!



loki100 -> RE: T122 - Waiting for the rain (2/14/2022 11:13:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Stamb

Lindemann and Model as an army group leaders. Did you assign them yourself or it happened automatically?

Wouldn't you want Model as a corps leader in the most important sector?


I'm fairly short on AP, due to a fairly constant churn of the FZ (I like to disband when they come under threat if I can) so a quick test and I lack the AP to bring Model to a corps (not sure he might be too senior now in any case). People like Heinrici I do move around to what I think is the key set of battles but equally I may just move his HQ and juggle assignments.

E-Adolf is in charge of the AG/OKH appointments - they are too expensive for me when an army commander is 22+ to swap and one of the AG into the mid-30s. I'm not fussed about OKH, its well to the rear so picks up horrible distance malus (apart from for its morale rolls), so anybody would be overwhelmed by that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

quote:


Seems like the Soviets have finally worked out the Crimea has been empty for the last 6 weeks.

As above, can't gain any time bonus here so not worth the diversion of formations better along the Bug. Not least, for the whole of this southern sector, I'm relying on logistics not combat power to slow the Soviets.


This is near heresy - using the Soviet 41 tactic against them in 1943!



aye [;)]

again this is where the game rewards playing both sides and sticking with things. The Soviet E-W logistics are utterly different to the Axis W-E layout (and indeed the Soviet experience in 1941). One region that is very asymetric is the Black Sea west of the Dnepr. For the axis in 1941 this is as good as it gets, decent rail and naval supply, if anything the depots can fill up too much. Till they make some serious gains W of Kiev the Soviets in reverse are reliant on that single track rail that runs south from Zaporozhye for the entire region (and they have less shipping than the axis).

There are other similar spots.

Then they need to supply 6-7m compared to the 3-4m that the axis had in 1941.

In other words, they have a real challenge, their safety net is the 1944 LL truck allocation allows much more reliance on long supply hauls, but even so that eats into the mobility of the tank and mech corps.

Its where the 'exit if I don't win by T10' axis players miss how the entire game works. I'd strong suggest to both Soviet and Axis players come mid-42 start looking at the map with counters off and study the E-W rail set up - and the importance of the occasional locations for really key depots.



ImperatorAugustus -> RE: T122 - Waiting for the rain (2/14/2022 12:27:32 PM)

Why is Goring still in charge?



loki100 -> RE: T122 - Waiting for the rain (2/14/2022 7:50:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ImperatorAugustus

Why is Goring still in charge?


because head of OKL is pretty meaningless when you can have decent commanders at the Luftflotte level? If I recall properly air commands mostly ensure that planes take off and have some bearing on the repair routines.

So, as above, I'm relatively short of AP, I'm not going to deal with a post that is pretty much isolated from having a real effect - I would do so in WiTW as you really need your fighters to fully commit (in the narrow areas you specify) so as to have the best chance to overwhelm allied escorts and do some serious damage to the bombers.

Here, I'm still winning the air war - in the sectors I'm contesting - with some ease.



loki100 -> T123 - wallowing in the mud (2/15/2022 2:04:13 PM)

T123 – 24 October 1943

Southern Italy surrendered, but of key importance was the promised heavy rain but still mostly light mud. The light mud in the Dnepr bend seemed to encourage the Soviets to try and clear the VP cities.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8220/dWXdfI.jpg[/image]

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/665/SrJqT3.jpg[/image]

Usual problem of defending urban hexes but while all 4 divisions are in a mess none actually depleted so I held on.

Forecast next turn is for more heavy rains which should generate heavy mud everywhere.

So should hold them for at least one more turn, probably two, which leaves the Soviets a +1 time bonus. Kiev is slipping out of reach – but then that was almost always going to be safe for this phase.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7480/P51tC6.jpg[/image]

Send more air units to the reserve for a quick training programme, may as well push up the experience levels as much as I can.

So, I'm actually reasonably pleased with how the summer worked out -oddly I am now holding east of the main historical line, so have a little bit more flexibility.

My German infantry are the backbone of my defense (obviously) so now have 139 with an average of 14,000 men and 150 guns. On the 1944 TOE they should have 12,300 men and 152 guns so am over in terms of combat squads – will take some time to settle down. But it does make it easier to refit the more battered formations – at a cost of them slowly weakening over time.

Highest morale is 81, median morale is 67 (so a notch over the NM value), lowest is 61.

All this excludes the LW formations.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8465/wrN8it.jpg[/image]

To that I have 23 Pzr divisions with typical TOEs in the 63-75 range (but outliers well above and some below this), 12 PzrGr mostly with a TOE in the high 70s or low 80s – in many ways these recover from combat more readily than the Pzr formations.

Actually impressed that some Czech tanks are still in use.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5655/NSqiIm.jpg[/image]

Not exactly a huge reserve stock.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6402/sihLZG.jpg[/image]

Manpower pools – Rumanians reflect their recent battering, I'll do some scrapping next time to keep them up to strength. While their demise is now inevitable I can hopefully gain 40+ more turns of some use out of them.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4162/p4UPvR.jpg[/image]



Speedysteve -> RE: T123 - wallowing in the mud (2/15/2022 3:23:45 PM)

Hi All,

So Heavy Rains are here...everywhere. 0 attacks as the vodka doesn't even allow my men to move through such heavy mud... Luckily I had prioritised the vodka shipments to my men so the dastardly mud doesn't stops the vodka trucks....huzzah!

For those Soviet players who haven't played this far into the game.......the admin time needed each turn doesn't decrease [;)] This turn still took me a couple of hours despite 0 attacks...the constant need to shuffle units out of line, refit, deciding which units to send back to Reserve/where to send the ones in Reserve back onto the map.....shuffling SU's in and out of HQ's/Corps due to TOE levels, which to put on refit.....which plane squadrons to upgrade (and to what), which to send to reserve, which to send back on map, which AF's to build....which AOG's to move forward and where....etc etc...[:)]

So we're into Autumn 1943...I'm slightly behind the curve tbh. I need to over achieve over the next 8 months.....otherwise I will probably lose this game and with it my head (Uncle Joe says so).

End of the day we all learn more, the more we play the game, but our general play levels are our general play levels! I just have to hope I can improve here and there and the following key elements are significant in reality:

1. NM - German land decreases to 60 as of 1st January 1944. As of April 1944 Soviet land increases to 60!

2. AFV's - IS-2 1943's....these puppies (from 12/43) are a key counter to the Big Cats...T-34 85's from 04/44....something to counter the German Mediums....

3. VVS - As NM gradually improves I hope over months they make more of an impact on the Bad Guys.



Speedysteve -> RE: T123 - wallowing in the mud (2/16/2022 12:49:56 PM)

FWIW let's do some analysis of my main CU's - the Corps....probably less instructive compared to the Axis since these formation can go from hero to zero in a single week but:

Rifle Corps - I've 131 of these with an average of 20,231 men and 355 guns per Corps. Full TOE would mean 28,233 and 618 guns per Corps so I'm averaging 71.66% TOE for men and 57.44% TOE for guns. Highest Morale is 69 and lowest is 50. Median is 54 which is just under the NM (55). 21 of these are Guards.

Tank Corps - I've 20 of these with an average of 7,741 men and 80 Tanks per Corps. Full TOE would mean 8,380 men (Guards have an extra c.600) and 185 (Guards have 10 more) Tanks per Corps so I'm averaging 92.37% TOE for men and 43.24% TOE for Tanks. The main gaps for the Tanks are with Assault Guns and Recon Tanks.....most of the T-34 slots are filled. Just an FYI. 3 are Guards. Highest morale is 66 and the lowest is 58. Median is 60.

Mech Corps - I've 16 of these with an average of 13,279 men and 84 Tanks per Corps. Full TOE would mean 16,502 men and 246 Tanks per Corps so I'm averaging 80.46% TOE for men and 34.14% TOE for Tanks. 2 are Guards. Highest Morale is 71 and the lowest is 60. Median is 60.

The issue with the Recon tank slots is the last production of any of these stops in 09/43! As such until the TOE upgrades for Mech/Tank Corps they will almost always be short once the Recon Pools are empty. Clearly another Soviet bias at play[;)]

Yay still running some T34 1941's and KV1's. LOL

[image]local://upfiles/4211/F4BEADED05054A129DE4C904EC435307.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 4:54:04 PM)

T124 – 31 October 1943

Finally both heavy rain and heavy mud, with the same, hopefully, for next turn.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2060/gCO6nz.jpg[/image]

So kept the airforce on rest, and those sent to train still in the reserve.

Apart from some small moves did nothing, try to refit as much as I can.

Max Soviet VP gain for the Dnepr bend now only +2 (time bonus). If weather is right then Dnepropetrovsk can't fall next turn then may actually deny them any time gains (while its urban, its also behind a large river).

I'll probably abandon Zaporozhye next turn, its of no residual value.

T125 – 6 November 1943

Run these turns together as no real gain to separate posts.

So lets start with the most important screen, and the divide is right on the front line – so my assumption is the war restarts next turn and my reserves are mired in mud ... sigh. Oh and the LW is likely to be grounded.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4638/ODPfAd.jpg[/image]

Despite that, bring the trainees back to the map and re-organise my tactical bombers (incl the FB) so as to make it easier to run interdiction missions – really anything to chew into Soviet mobility is worth trying.

So basically its waiting for the inevitable and hoping I've made the best preparations I can.

My best guesses by sector. For this I've taken off the weather displays as its a bit more clear.

Northern chunk of AGN has been static for almost 2 years now, once my attempt to isolate Leningrad failed the front stalled, I have enough to keep it that way and I think the Soviets have supply problems here.

This sector is backed by L6 but that is really just a holding formation in case I do want to commit here.

My guess is the stalemate continues – in the end I have to pull back with that decision forced by events along the Dauga. To swap at even bonus pts (+2) I need to hold Pskov to T162, since I gained the full +6 for Talinin anything beyond T167 (ie start of September 1944) is a bonus.

Since I doubt the Soviets have any mobile assets here, any retreat can be controlled and I have some prepared positions on the Narva and around Pskov.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6540/Z2u3n7.jpg[/image]

Basically AGC plus 9A. Oddly lacking in VP for what is the key sector – in the end the Soviets can't reach Berlin via the Ukraine. I've just fallen back on a long prepared line around Smolensk, for the moment most of the armour is to the south of Smolensk.

I'm using the last decent band of poor terrain, once I'm forced out of that its clear terrain all the way back to the landbridge and the Dnepr.

This sector has about 40% of the Luftwaffe.

I personally think a combination of the non-freezing major rivers and the rail set up pushes the Soviets towards Smolensk-Vitebsk, pressure elsewhere can turn a line on that sector but there are a lot of dead ends.

My guess is the Soviets need to reach past Vitebsk before Spring, as they start to do that then AGN has to adjust its lines.

At the risk of sounding indecisive I don't have a clue what the Soviets can or will do on this sector. In the end they have to drive me back and they would need to go a long way in the south do that by outflanking my current line.

Once I am back on the Dnepr that splits AGC/N from the Ukraine for any significant troop movements, certainly 3 PzrA can't combine with the other two which is what I've been doing recently.

Since I've only really attacked with some effect where I've been able to use 3-4 Pzr Corps that basically makes an isolated 3 Pzr A into a purely defensive/tactical asset.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4166/kIr9os.jpg[/image]

This turn abandoned Zaporozhye as its provided all it can (no time bonus) and really no point having a couple of divisions trashed – they are better west of the Dnepr. Pulled bits of 17A back and reinforced Dnepropetrovsk – see if I can gain the full swing on time bonuses.

Have discussed this sector so to summarise. The Dnepr is not going to freeze, but ground conditions are not going to impose much of a movement cost.

That to some extent separates the area south of the Desna/north of the Dnepr from the area south of the Dnepr.

There are no time VP in play until I hold Odessa to at least T145 (end March 1944) when I make a small gain there (as I took it for the +6).

Quite simply if the HWM test is to have any value I can't afford to lose Odessa to time, there is no way will the Soviets then just wait till August to finish off Rumania.

On the way to Kiev there is a fair bit of poor terrain and once at Kiev that is a bit of a dead end with the Pripyet region dominating the direct line west (and poor logistics).

To the south, there are 2 semi-decent defensive lines, one based on the Bug and up to Cherkassy, the other using the rough ground on the upper Dnestr. Both are a bit of an illusion, not least in that they are so long that I can't protect the Rumanians.

The good thing is the southern half is dependent on a single track rail from Kherson to Odessa so its hard to sustain large scale operations. The northern line can use the dual track from Dnepropetrovsk and rely on the large railyard there and at Kharkov to make it work.

But the next big one is Kiev.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9374/NAtOkA.jpg[/image]

Very roughly the next phase has little interaction with the VP system. Given I have written off the Crimea, there is 1 time point left in the Dnepr bend, Kiev and Smolensk.

To put the deeper stuff into context, I gain a net VP on Lvov if I hold it to T164 and Riga to T172 (end August and start October 1944 respectively).

Being pragmatic, I still think the HWM is too low so we are looking at the various 1945 victory conditions.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2272/xOrbmV.jpg[/image]

Looks like the Soviets have reinforced, lets say they'll field around 6.5m (as something will almost always be swapping back to the reserve).

Roughly 3-2 but with the real advantage that I can't weaken quiet sectors so my guess would be 2-1 where they need to concentrate.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4492/Ot2hfm.jpg[/image]

And they don't have much of a manpower reserve – this will improve as they recapture cities but it means they need to be careful about their losses too.

Note the relative slowing of active operations has also helped me to regain a decent reserve.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4483/b1nMuE.jpg[/image]

And the wider world. Practically for the next phase there are no easy VP available there but then I shouldn't lose any either. Italy is the only place that can claim much production or manpower.

All my German formations are at least 60% TOE.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4011/6JgBxk.jpg[/image]

My strong suspicion is the Soviets have to prioritise the Ukraine. Its where their mobile assets are, they can't risk me ending March 44 well to the east of the historical line and its the one place where their relatively narrow resource advantage can really be exploited?

I have fall back lines, in key sectors. As a note, to build these quickly you need suitable manpower and sufficient freight – simply having construction assets on their own is not enough. So structure your rear area depot systems with this in mind.



Speedysteve -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 7:11:16 PM)

Well Loki was partially correct in the latest turn....it was a mixture of snow and rain but the only place where Heavy Rain fell on his lines rather than mine was between Konotop and Bryansk and an area I didn't have attack plans in for this week.

Further south the fun continues. It's (honestly) been amazing seeing how a few weeks off has affected things (for us both looking at the OOB)....so many more higher CV's across the board...vodka rations are now almost full!

Just the 1st phase of operations down here mainly conducted by Infantry Corps. I'm going to smash these Fascist invaders through 1944! Retribution!

D-Town fell this turn which I'll detail in the next post.



[image]local://upfiles/4211/0B8D08603E0D4BDD9F97EF2BA8FE768E.jpg[/image]



Speedysteve -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 7:15:21 PM)

D-Town fell for a +1VP bonus for the Good Guys.

I'd kept a very strong force off the frontlines to conduct the Main attack. The initial attack (top battle) was there to weaken the enemy before the main attack moved up and recaptured the glorious place. Huzzah:

[image]local://upfiles/4211/49AC756FC726492496B0DDAF8F1515AA.jpg[/image]



xhoel -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 7:43:47 PM)

This is a very interesting AAR and its good to see more games heading into the late war. Well presented too.

Without wanting to hijack the thread: I think both the battle at Zaporozhye and the one at Dnepropetrovsk continue to show the issue with Urban Combat. The German losses in the second battle at Dnepropetrovsk are ridiculously high and the Soviet ones too low. These were 3 German Divisions in a fortified (3 level) Urban hex, with a lot of SUs in support.

The Soviet advantage in men is only 2:1, not nearly enough to justify these results.



Hardradi -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 8:15:47 PM)

Thats a lot of Artillery the Soviets threw at this battle. Disruption would have been pretty high.
The CV drops between the two battles are interesting. The 239th held up a lot better compared to the others. The pioneers were smashed.



Stamb -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 8:40:53 PM)

Urban battle is a big issue, I already suggested to apply heavy urban system (which seems to work ok) to an urban hexes as a quick hex. Imagine losing this cities (where attacker do not reach 2:1 ratio) when they still provide maximum time bonus. I would be mad.



xhoel -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 9:14:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

Thats a lot of Artillery the Soviets threw at this battle. Disruption would have been pretty high.



There is a tendency to overestimate the effects of artillery in battle. Speedy can probably show us the battle details, but I doubt the answer is there. I think this has to do with the close quarter combat routines that are only triggered in Urban Combat and which leave units in unready state.

I see this in my game too. Full strength divisions going from 80% TOE to 15% ready TOE and general TOE of 50%. Too many elements are damaged and that makes the position untenable.



loki100 -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 9:24:31 PM)

aye, its one of those instances were every part of the routine seems to be WAD but the combination is clearly off. City hexes are fine, lose and get bounced normally, often inflict serious losses. Others have reported double urban works as expected but something about urban is not working.

Its not even being pushed out that is odd (accepting the other discussion did generate multi-turn combat instances), its the way it happens and how the rout then escalates losses. But I don't think the solution is to alter these hexes to double urban.

I've attached the key part of the battle report and its infantry that did the damage, I had around 50 hits from longer ranged artillery, much the same in reverse it was my infantry and MG formations that inflicted losses on the Soviets

anyway, took it back - which should wreck the railyard.




[image]local://upfiles/43256/F47C68B5BA9C4FE19E3E7A86692CF56A.jpg[/image]



xhoel -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 9:29:37 PM)

@loki100: Thanks for attaching the battle report. Seems consistent with the one I am looking at from the battle of Prague. Infantry is doing most of the damage, losses escalating like crazy and units routing in the end. It needs to be tweaked but I agree that simply changing the tile type is not the solution.

The routines need to be dialed down so the defender is not being hammered down so much.

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

anyway, took it back - which should wreck the railyard.



Good job, counterattacks are a fine art!



Stamb -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/16/2022 9:35:10 PM)

I was talking about applying heavy urban or at least city combat mechanics to an urban hexes, so it would affect on going games. Not to change hexes themself. And I mentioned that it would be a quick fix, but I think it is better than nothing. It is pretty game breaking as almost all VP are urban hexes.

P.S

Instead of a hold and massive casualties to an attacker we have completely opposite situation where attacker take light losses (at least in killed men), hex is lost, despite < 2 final combat odds, and in addition to that defenders are routed. Double lose for the defenders.



Speedysteve -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/17/2022 6:20:25 AM)

Yup I think we’ve seen enough Urban battles to know it’s not ‘quite right’….good thing is by Loki taking it back I can wreck some more Axis now[:'(]

P.s Loki when I first re-took it the railyard and manpower were at 100 damage. Not sure how much more damage you could cause[:'(]

Anyway time to wreck some Bad Guys!



loki100 -> T126 - Swapping Dnepropetrovsk (2/17/2022 7:10:05 PM)

T126 – 14 November 1943

Well picking up from last turn and the Soviet report, two things happened. The rain did indeed fall on the front line from the Desna to Leningrad but to the south it was snowfall/light snow, apart from where the LW was based – where it remained heavy rain.

Next turn might still have some mud on the current climatic divide but watching turn end it seems to be snow everywhere.

And, Dnepropetrovsk fell, despite having 3 good divisions and across a major river. Its frustrating that in the end such a hex is the obvious weak spot in any defensive line – but reinforces my logic that the only solution is defend the approaches instead.

Really only one sensible response – remembering that the more damage to the railyard the less value it has - is to retake it?

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5631/fa1qbF.jpg[/image]

Its going to be a long time till the next real break but hit back where I can, especially where it seems the Soviets had ideas of encirclements – or left a weak front line.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/408/I2tmGE.jpg[/image]

Small Soviet offensive south of the Desna, looks like they are trying to secure the dual rails, less inclined to stop their fun here for the moment. It also targetted my very useful Hungarian formations.

More generally, they seem to have built up here so I suspect they are going to try and push me out of the last belt of good defensive terrain as soon as they can.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5387/v0A7Kd.jpg[/image]

Not bad exchange, especially of permanent losses. Given their 3:2 overall advantage, 2-1 helps a little bit.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7346/nIqT5P.jpg[/image]

Gave the VVS a shoeing, just to remind them who is boss – all that off the GS interactions.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7043/SkuK0f.jpg[/image]

So at the moment, I can do attrition – scrapped a load of construction units which helps, at worst that is about 10 lost diivisions of spare manpower.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/783/3V9tH6.jpg[/image]

Wish the Rumanians would stop sacking each other.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4247/h981sn.jpg[/image]



Hardradi -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/18/2022 2:26:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

Thats a lot of Artillery the Soviets threw at this battle. Disruption would have been pretty high.



There is a tendency to overestimate the effects of artillery in battle. Speedy can probably show us the battle details, but I doubt the answer is there. I think this has to do with the close quarter combat routines that are only triggered in Urban Combat and which leave units in unready state.

I see this in my game too. Full strength divisions going from 80% TOE to 15% ready TOE and general TOE of 50%. Too many elements are damaged and that makes the position untenable.


With that amount of 'guns', assuming they mostly commit, it will sometimes also cause significant disruption in a city battle, both for the defender and the attacker. In non-urban battles, from what I have seen, massed artillery is decisive just from the sheer number of disruptions it causes.

I well aware that infantry and HMG rule the streets. Might be better to take this back to the City thread started a while ago rather than clog up the AAR.



loki100 -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/18/2022 10:10:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hardradi
...

With that amount of 'guns', assuming they mostly commit, it will sometimes also cause significant disruption in a city battle, both for the defender and the attacker. In non-urban battles, from what I have seen, massed artillery is decisive just from the sheer number of disruptions it causes.

I well aware that infantry and HMG rule the streets. Might be better to take this back to the City thread started a while ago rather than clog up the AAR.


In the Soviet attacks they had a lot of guns but they did next to no damage - I had about 50 elements hit from artillery and they became a mix of disrupted and damaged. In my counterattack, about half the damage inflicted on the Soviets came from my artillery.

So clearly it can be decisive but its very variable.

Might be a product of better experience, better command chain but I don't think its commitment as such, its effectiveness when committed



Hardradi -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/18/2022 8:28:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

So clearly it can be decisive but its very variable.

Might be a product of better experience, better command chain but I don't think its commitment as such, its effectiveness when committed


Yes, I am playing two games as Axis at the moment so I am largely drawing from those gameplay experiences, hence I am generally getting good commitment and often good results (disruption wise). Although I am pretty sure I can see similar trends in some of my opponents attacks.

When you disrupt 30%+ of an enemy force it doesnt leave them with a CV of enough strength to hold a hex.



jubjub -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/18/2022 9:29:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hardradi
...

With that amount of 'guns', assuming they mostly commit, it will sometimes also cause significant disruption in a city battle, both for the defender and the attacker. In non-urban battles, from what I have seen, massed artillery is decisive just from the sheer number of disruptions it causes.

I well aware that infantry and HMG rule the streets. Might be better to take this back to the City thread started a while ago rather than clog up the AAR.


In the Soviet attacks they had a lot of guns but they did next to no damage - I had about 50 elements hit from artillery and they became a mix of disrupted and damaged. In my counterattack, about half the damage inflicted on the Soviets came from my artillery.

So clearly it can be decisive but its very variable.

Might be a product of better experience, better command chain but I don't think its commitment as such, its effectiveness when committed


This sounds like there was a difference in fortifications. Level 2/3 forts reduce artillery effects drastically.



loki100 -> RE: T124 - T125, guess we have to wait? (2/19/2022 11:41:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

...

This sounds like there was a difference in fortifications. Level 2/3 forts reduce artillery effects drastically.


aye thats the reason, had forgotten about the level 3 fortifications I had there - actually by accident in that they were created when I first captured the city and maintained as I used the city as a major refit spot throughout 1942.

clearly when I counter-attacked they were back to zero for the Soviets



loki100 -> T127 - counter-attacking can be fun (2/19/2022 8:22:43 PM)

T127 – 21 November 1943

So we seem to have a war on with the start of three major Soviet offensives ... but first some weather news. Thats for next turn and in a normal winter would imply blizzards by early December. Here it will end up as snowfall but just possibly might make a mess of the Soviet rear area (in the same way that the heavy rain hit me).

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6773/6ihEbS.jpg[/image]

Back to the air war and back to the railyard war, as before my goal is not to disrupt current depot capacity (any damage will be offset by HQ allocation) but for when these railyards are needed for depot-depot freight.

The other shift is a return to GA-interdiction, I'm picking spots where the Soviets are advanced into poor terrain but behind them its clear, goal is to remove admin movement (principally for the supply trucks).

There's a fair bit of predictable misunderstanding of the Soviet logistics in WiTE2. Its actually very fragile in this phase and I'm hoping that by niggling away at aspects, those problems slowly worsen, if their armoured formations are around 30MP and the Rifle Corps 12MP a lot of my problems start to ease.

Moscow probably wasn't worth it, Kharkov was flattened. So distance is a real constraint but the NSS' rail yard is *20 for capacity so 13% of damage is a bite out of it – but I doubt I can sustain this.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2929/2r6qUE.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4669/GCCJvK.jpg[/image]

The experimental interdiction probably hit the wrong target area, I'll keep this under review. Clearly any reward is slow and indirect.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1972/tPTxt1.jpg[/image]

To the map, Soviet offensive aimed at Smolensk opened but took heavy losses for a single hex in my fort belt.

Given the commanders involved, they do seem now to be serious about this sector.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8346/qxyCA1.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7224/foIhkB.jpg[/image]

Wider Smolensk sector. No counter-attacks, let them have their gains but equally I have multiple lines (even if Smolensk itself is presumably a death trap).

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2585/9RYwUu.jpg[/image]

Bigger problems in the south – not least the first pocket (not really counting early turn cut-offs) at Poltava. Now the nice thing about being pocketed is there are often juicy, over-extended, targets now available, so time to do to the Soviets what they did to me in 1941.

Usual pattern, isolate and rout.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/168/F717nv.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6700/L0Be3i.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2964/YfKFWZ.jpg[/image]

Now that used most of 1 PzrA but 4 PzrA had the week off.

In terms of terrain that was a loss, but no point giving the Soviets the chance to take some revenge and the rail net here (for them) is very odd with some important gaps.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4369/vhJM3F.jpg[/image]

Took a different approach in the Dnepr bend, one localised attack to protect a retreat route but generally opted to hold the current line. I want to make the ZoC costs for the Dnepr pay – and it maybe (hopefully) the counter-attack at Poltava has removed their more mobile assets for a few turns.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9151/YOfmeE.jpg[/image]

So some things start to change. The ratio of units in refit/ready has started to increase, at the moment its still mostly a single turn state (apart from the Pzrs) but its a steady stream of units out of the line. And I mostly have to accept terrain losses and indeed start giving it up voluntarily to avoid needless losses.

Overall not bad, almost 80,000 permanent losses must be enough to stop the Soviets actually building up their manpower. And I very kindly cleared out a lot of their soon to be obsolete tanks so they have slots for the new stuff.

Also the artillery losses are enough to cause them problems, at a guess they are getting around 900 guns and larger mortars per turn (and no more than 40 heavier guns) so that is more than a turn's production.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7742/38aVeI.jpg[/image]

Air war was a bit worse than I'd like but generally my formations are more robust (high enough morale that the losses don't render them in need of a break) and I have plenty of planes in reserve. Also, come early 1944, I really start to lose a lot to the west so its delivering a useful benefit.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4426/vm6Dwh.jpg[/image]

The big numbers have changed quite a lot since T125. So that is a net 300k off the Soviet on-map numbers (and they have taken 150k out of reserve), a net 1,000 tanks have gone missing and the VVS is down almost 2,000 on map.

Germans are down (net) 70,000 men (some withdrawals), 400 tanks and 300 planes.

So that is just off 2 turns of active operations – its going to be a long winter.

16 Pzr is due to arrive next turn (axis players of WiTW curse this withdrawal as it usually comes just as the Allies push on Rome).

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4029/v4uRip.jpg[/image]

Have started to track Soviet truck losses, its the only proxy measure I readily have available to guess at their wider logistics network and unit mobility.

The second line is just their truck losses in their logistics phase – I guess that is the best single measure of how efficient their supply network is functioning (since clearly its correlated to actual truck usage in that phase with that affected by the sum of all the MP costs involved).

Their production is made up of around 130 truck factories (I'm going by an old vs AI save here) so that is 130*10*.55, approx 700 and 4,500 from LL. So knocking out1,300 (even assuming some is offset by capturing mine) is 25% of weekly production and they have the problem of getting new trucks to where they are needed. Also if 1,300 are destroyed, there will be a second group of damaged – that I have no means to unpick.

The 1944 LL value is 6,000, their domestic production may go up a little depending on recaptures and repairs but if I recall stays at around 700 per turn. 1945 sees a drop in LL receipts but by then it should all be going into the logistics system.

[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4168/EQA45k.jpg[/image]
[image]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9852/aGK1EG.jpg[/image]

No gains or losses for off map VP so the only changes are the predictable core city values. Basically the Soviets are up +21 for the Dnepr bend and will get another +36 next turn (when they finally reach Sevastopol). Smolensk will fall in the next few turns.

From my perspective, all that is factored in, I'm not going to hold the current line till the end of December 1944 – I doubt I'll hold in the south till January 1944 without having to start a significant retreat.



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