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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 7:12:20 PM   
sprior


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From: Portsmouth, UK
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_____________________________

"Grown ups are what's left when skool is finished."
"History started badly and hav been geting steadily worse."
- Nigel Molesworth.



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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 7:12:51 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: sprior

Hex ownership around Sian, as you can see there is a path of uncontrolled hexes to other places. Also note that the supply sources for Sian are rather limited. There are currently 80, yes 80, supply points there. I have 30 or so transports and bombers flying in supplies too.

Simon,

Any chance of getting a HQ unit or two there to draw supplies? Couldn't hurt with the 'support' function of your LCUs too.

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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 7:18:17 PM   
sprior


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From: Portsmouth, UK
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_____________________________

"Grown ups are what's left when skool is finished."
"History started badly and hav been geting steadily worse."
- Nigel Molesworth.



(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 3873
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 7:33:36 PM   
witpqs


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Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		OK, first here is the terrain chart from the manual. Note the supply column.

Second, a developer made a long post on supplies a while back. The part that is relevant to the path cost amounted to this (my paraphrasing):

Count the cost for all the hexes (remember that roads and railways replace the terrain for supply purposes if they run in the needed orientation). Next, subtract the total cost from 100. The results mean the following.

89 to 100 = Short Range Supply Pull = runs 4 days per week
49 to 100 = Medium Range Supply Pull = runs 2 days per week
10 to 100 = Long Range Supply Pull = runs 1 day per week

So notice that 'short range' means you get the short, medium, and long range pulls for supply runs 7 days per week.

Here is the terrain chart from the manual. It was split over two pages and I pieced it together.






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< Message edited by witpqs -- 2/11/2011 7:34:42 PM >

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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 7:34:27 PM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Here is my count of the pic you posted:






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Post #: 3875
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 9:26:17 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Interesting the kind of stuff the manual has in it. One of these days I promise to read it.

As for the supply situation in China can we throw some resources at it? Are the C-47 squadrons at full strength? Do we have good air commanders and a HQ with the appropriate attachments?

Could we use the Tenth Air Force bombers to help? Either by flying supplies or in the ground attack role (from another base) on the road to Sian?

Are the air units at Sian really doing any good or just eating supply?

What about an escape route ain case they guys on the road are forced to retereat?

Could we get some Chinamen to cut the road to Nanyang?


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Post #: 3876
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 9:41:57 PM   
witpqs


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Status: offline 		Mine in bold:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Interesting the kind of stuff the manual has in it. One of these days I promise to read it.
I'm sure you've promised to read Stalker Girl's manual first.

As for the supply situation in China can we throw some resources at it? Are the C-47 squadrons at full strength? Do we have good air commanders and a HQ with the appropriate attachments?
Flying in supplies could help a bit. It will use up some supplies to fly the a/c, but at least it puts a little supply where you want it.

Could we use the Tenth Air Force bombers to help? Either by flying supplies or in the ground attack role (from another base) on the road to Sian?
Overall, you need to get supplies into China and reduce supply usage within China. Be careful about air training, needlessly moving troops, replacements on, those sort of things.

Be advised that even when you get a lot more supply into China, there will still be some really bad spots for supply. It seems you would need truly massive amounts of supply for the supply movement algorithms to supply everyplace in China with adequate amounts.

Are the air units at Sian really doing any good or just eating supply?
Maybe just eating supply, but if they are fighters that are stopping supply hits by enemy air attacks then they might be helping.

What about an escape route ain case they guys on the road are forced to retereat?
Good idea.

Could we get some Chinamen to cut the road to Nanyang?
Now you're talking! Cut off their supplies!



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Post #: 3877
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 10:12:18 PM   
sprior


Posts: 8596
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From: Portsmouth, UK
Status: offline 		Interesting the kind of stuff the manual has in it. One of these days I promise to read it.

Me too. The only reason to do an AAR is to get other people to tell you what you're doing wrong. That must be why there are so many posts in this AAR

As for the supply situation in China can we throw some resources at it? Are the C-47 squadrons at full strength? Do we have good air commanders and a HQ with the appropriate attachments?

The Chinese have only 1 squadron of transports and they are flying supplies into Sian already. The 10th AF and British units are are at Ledo flying supplies to Kunming.

Could we use the Tenth Air Force bombers to help? Either by flying supplies or in the ground attack role (from another base) on the road to Sian?

Not sure the Chinese have the resources to support the 10th AF

Are the air units at Sian really doing any good or just eating supply?

There's only 1 fighter based there

What about an escape route ain case they guys on the road are forced to retereat?

Currently they can retreat north out of Sian

Could we get some Chinamen to cut the road to Nanyang?

That's what those guys in the woods were supposed to do and why JJ needs to neutralise them.

_____________________________

"Grown ups are what's left when skool is finished."
"History started badly and hav been geting steadily worse."
- Nigel Molesworth.



(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 3878
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 10:31:01 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sprior

Apart from these?



Erm...those should do.

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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 10:39:37 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Here is my count of the pic you posted:






Witpqs,

Thank you for the detailed clarification of the supply movement situation here. Too often, I confess, I don't do my supply LOS homework as I should.

In any case, my understanding here is that regardless of which way the LOC / LOS pathway is followed, it doesn't make any difference. Those dudes in the woods are effectively without supply. Their plight is a supply issue, not a LOS issue.

If they drew supply from the West they'd only be able to draw supply one day per week (from a non-existent supply reservoir at Sian). Whereas if they drew supply from the North, they'd be able to draw supply three days per week (from a non-existent supply reservoir at Sian). Furthermore, if those hex sides were NOT allied controlled, they would likely not be able to trace a line to draw supply at all (from a non-existent supply reservoir in Sian).

See my point?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 2/11/2011 10:42:57 PM >

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Post #: 3880
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 10:41:29 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Onime No Kyo


quote:

ORIGINAL: He gets offed while fishing for trout with cheeseballs on the orders of his own brother.


Lets be honest here.....there arnt that many characters in that movie who survive. Would you rather be the a wife-beating, testostoronal pr!ck who gets shot at a highway tollbooth?

Wait a second - the guy (Sonny) that got shot at the highway tollbooth got shot because his BROTHER-IN-LAW was a wife beater. After his sister got beat up by the B-I-L, he beat up B-I-L. B-I-L later betrayed him to another faction, setting up Sonny's bad toll booth experience.

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Post #: 3881
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/11/2011 10:42:43 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Onime No Kyo


quote:

ORIGINAL: He gets offed while fishing for trout with cheeseballs on the orders of his own brother.


Lets be honest here.....there arnt that many characters in that movie who survive. Would you rather be the a wife-beating, testostoronal pr!ck who gets shot at a highway tollbooth?

Wait a second - the guy (Sonny) that got shot at the highway tollbooth got shot because his BROTHER-IN-LAW was a wife beater. After his sister got beat up by the B-I-L, he beat up B-I-L. B-I-L later betrayed him to another faction, setting up Sonny's bad toll booth experience.

Dude. Have you ever had a GOOD toll booth experience?

_____________________________


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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 12:05:56 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		I must apologize for making an error - I forgot to count the last hex, meaning Sian itself. It does not change the analysis because the values fall in the same range. Here is the new graphic.






Attachment (1)

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Post #: 3883
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 12:12:12 AM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Witpqs,

Thank you for the detailed clarification of the supply movement situation here. Too often, I confess, I don't do my supply LOS homework as I should.

In any case, my understanding here is that regardless of which way the LOC / LOS pathway is followed, it doesn't make any difference. Those dudes in the woods are effectively without supply. Their plight is a supply issue, not a LOS issue.

If they drew supply from the West they'd only be able to draw supply one day per week (from a non-existent supply reservoir at Sian). Whereas if they drew supply from the North, they'd be able to draw supply three days per week (from a non-existent supply reservoir at Sian). Furthermore, if those hex sides were NOT allied controlled, they would likely not be able to trace a line to draw supply at all (from a non-existent supply reservoir in Sian).

See my point?


If your point is that Sian has too little supply, then yes. But... you don't get to look at it during supply draw, only afterward. Sian itself certainly is on a small spigot for supplies, but whenever it does get them it sends them on to the troops (both the ones in Sian and nearby it if not in another base). So it's still important to know if the troops in the woods even have a path to get supplies. Because if they don't they can't even share in the meager rations when Sian does get a supply shipment.

I wish I knew some magic to get more supplies up to Sian!




(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 3884
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 12:20:12 AM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I must apologize for making an error - I forgot to count the last hex, meaning Sian itself. It does not change the analysis because the values fall in the same range. Here is the new graphic.







It seems counterintuitive that the supply path traces in a retrograde fashion to the source. Possibly it doesnt matter.


Shouldn't the heavy rail line heading NE from Sian reduce the supply movement cost for that hexside to ZERO?

Also, is there not a Bay Area Rapid Tranist line running SW into the forrest hex with all the Chinamen?* That has no effect?



* Possibly there is some kind of Union work stoppage affecting service?

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 3885
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 12:36:56 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		I thought NE of Sian was a secondary road? If there is also a rail line there that would be '2' or '1' instead of '5' and change the tally accordingly.

I think the LYB's flooded that BART line.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 2/12/2011 12:40:08 AM >

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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 1:52:41 AM   
rtrapasso


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Joined: 9/3/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Onime No Kyo


quote:

ORIGINAL: He gets offed while fishing for trout with cheeseballs on the orders of his own brother.


Lets be honest here.....there arnt that many characters in that movie who survive. Would you rather be the a wife-beating, testostoronal pr!ck who gets shot at a highway tollbooth?

Wait a second - the guy (Sonny) that got shot at the highway tollbooth got shot because his BROTHER-IN-LAW was a wife beater. After his sister got beat up by the B-I-L, he beat up B-I-L. B-I-L later betrayed him to another faction, setting up Sonny's bad toll booth experience.

Dude. Have you ever had a GOOD toll booth experience?

Well, better than Sonny's...

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 3887
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:55:03 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Well, better than Sonny's...


Years ago my brother-in-law was approaching a toll booth one night when, in the distance, he saw the car in front of him backing up into the toll booth. The guy got out and paid the attendant, then drove away.

When he got up there the attendant was still steamed and was screaming something like "Did you see what he did!?" It turns out the (obviously drunk) driver rolled through the toll booth and Nolan Ryan'd the change at the attendant as he did so, sending the guy diving for cover! Thinking better of it, he then stopped and backed up. When he got out and the attendant started screaming at him he just calmly took a dollar bill out of his pocket and said "Here, I'll pay again."

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Post #: 3888
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 5:47:17 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		***************July 17, 1942*************

Fiji: I added the most unexperienced VMF squadron at Suva to CAP and forgot to chop down their range so they intercepted Oscars from Tanna. It was a tie but the Marines lost few pilots..just 7 airplanes. Even so, the names of the 7 Jap pilots are likely being inscribed in a Shinto shrine somewhere. The transport group arrived safely at Noumea without a Jap attack.

The big bombardment attack at Nadi was favorable. The Jap bastards there are getting fatigued or demoralized or maybe they can't get their TIVo's to work. A few more days of showing them they backed the wrong horse and then we attack generally. The raid on Tanna found no CAP and therefore no B-17's were lost at 17,000 ft. Damage to the airfield was minimal but we did break some Bettys and Zeroes on the ground.

Oz: The B-17 raid on Oz consisted of only 23 bombers. They fared well against the CAP of Oscars and did some damage, but nothing to write home about. The B-26's from Tennant ran into Tojos (perhaps flying from Wyndham). Equal numbers of each aircraft wre lost near Katherine.






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RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 7:43:22 AM   
stuman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: sprior

We need a turn.


Precisely. With this lot it is like taking a bunch of 13 yr olds on a guided tour of Gettysburg with Shelby Foote and all they want to know is when they can go to Starbucks to log on to jennajameson.*


*Not sure about the spelling of jennajameson.



hmmmm

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Post #: 3890
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 7:54:01 AM   
stuman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Wrong daughter And that is me before the guy at the DMV asked if I wanted to change anything on my driver's license.

Trini Lopez is too old in that picture but he really does look like "el Azteca" (minus the gluteal cleft on the chin and the sideburns). He really isn't a bad kid if you disregard his stolen social security number and the fact that he likes to drink and fight AND he is short.


As for Mr. Foote, I envisioned his voice as a disembodied narrator coming from everywhere at once as you stand in the Devil's Den looking up at the Little Round Top. Tell me THAT wouldn't be cool. Even so, you lot would be whining because there is no internet access.





Actual, real, story here : I was lucky enough to meet Mr. Foote. A writer friend of mine had become an acquaintance of Mr. Foote and when I found out I begged, pleaded and cajoled until I got to tag along one day on a brief get together of theirs. Very cool day for me

_____________________________

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Post #: 3891
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 2:55:42 PM   
BrucePowers


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

***************July 17, 1942*************



The big bombardment attack at Nadi was favorable. The Jap bastards there are getting fatigued or demoralized or maybe they can't get their TIVo's to work. A few more days of showing them they backed the wrong horse and then we attack generally. The raid on Tanna found no CAP and therefore no B-17's were lost at 17,000 ft. Damage to the airfield was minimal but we did break some Bettys and Zeroes on the ground.




People still use TIVo's?

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 3892
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:09:29 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Cap'n:

You guys playing scenario 2? If not, your opponents have been able to advance the Tojo IIa forward a full two months. Bad news: You'll be seeing a lot more of these very capable aircraft in the near future...this will likely become the IJAAF mainstay throughout the remainder of 1942 and into mid-1943.

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Post #: 3893
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:25:56 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: stuman

hmmmm


You stopped at starbucks and logged on didn't you?

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Post #: 3894
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:34:22 PM   
sprior


Posts: 8596
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From: Portsmouth, UK
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quote:

You guys playing scenario 2?


Yes

_____________________________

"Grown ups are what's left when skool is finished."
"History started badly and hav been geting steadily worse."
- Nigel Molesworth.



(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 3895
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:36:44 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BrucePowers


People still use TIVo's?



************Radio Room, Tanna Airfield, July 18, 1942*********


Lt. Commander Tanaka: By Odin! Ensign Sony, didn't I tell you to stop ******* around with that recorder? All we get here is the WB, Tannanese public access amateur hour and that damn Oprah channel. Nobody wants to watch that ****, anyway. Get over here and get this Type 23 radio receiver working!

Ensign Sony: HAI!

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Post #: 3896
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:54:02 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		We have had two run-ins with the Tojo so far. A group of B-17's were attacked over Katherine maybe 3 weeks ago and there were no losses. This time the Tojos really got into it with the B-26's (vanilla B-26, not the "B" model). The losses were 6 Tojos and 7 B-26's (counting op losses on the flight home). This seems a pretty good performance for unescorted B-26's, though it is not really a desirable method of killing Tojos. It appears one Tojo was destroyed on the ground at Wyndham by the B-17's, which suggests the Tojos are flying LRCAP from Wyndham? This seems like a misuse of the valuable airframe.

I figured JJ would try to ambush the mediums over Katherine so I sent them over the WJD infantry SE of Katherine...but they were still intercepted. Perhaps it is best to find out where all the Jap infantry is near Katherine and go after them with the 17's, which should be able to handle the Tojos better. If JJ wants to send Tojos from Wyndham on LRCAP over Katherine, go up against the B-17E, then fly all the way back to Wyndham we could do that all day.

What kind of replacement rate can we expect for these nasty buggers?

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 3897
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 3:56:47 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BrucePowers

Yup that's what he looked like when I met him back in June of '09 (except he wasn't wearing a tuxedo, just normal everyday clothes).


By ra way. I think I ordered too much sweet and sour soup. I still have leftovers. You want I should send you some?

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Post #: 3898
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 4:30:38 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
What kind of replacement rate can we expect for these nasty buggers?

Expect them to be the mainstay IJAAF fighter for the next year or so. >150/month would not be atypical.

_____________________________


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Post #: 3899
RE: Game theory and the Stasi - 2/12/2011 4:46:34 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
What kind of replacement rate can we expect for these nasty buggers?

Expect them to be the mainstay IJAAF fighter for the next year or so. >150/month would not be atypical.


Santa Maria! 150 per month???? Isn't that more than all US types at this time?

Admiral Lord Sprior....bring lots and lots of Hurricanes for Weasel.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
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