Red Prince
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Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Along the southern Dnieper, the forces are almost equal now that 25 strength points of Germans are disorganized. I count ~92 in Germans that can reach the front line and ~96 in Russians. The German units are better quality so they can concentrate for an attack more easily. But it also means that they do not have very many "hit takers".
In the north, the Russians got a break when so many German corps decided to take the time to bathe in the Baltic for 3-4 weeks. On the main front line the Germans have 61 strength factors versus 53 for the Russians. But the Germans can afford losses here, since there are another 50 factors available to move east. Even after discounting those that will move towards Leningrad, there is plenty of extra beef available for attacks on the Smolensk front.
If you retreat the 5-3 one hex behind the Svir, the Finns will not be able to attack it. The HQ is at the end of its tether so they will only have a 5.5:5. It looks as if the Germans do not have an air force here. The 6-3 Mil can actually move 3 hexes west and hold the Lake Peipus river line for an impulse - [but that is dangerous since the Germans can get a 16:6 on him]. Then you can form up an every other hex defense in front of the Dnieper anchored by 2 swamp hexes on the ends. It means holding a Clear hex with 13 points + the Artillery behind/adjacent.
It's really late here so I will let you figure out the details. I envision a 6-3 Mil in the north, a 6-1 in Pskov, a 5-3 (disorganized) in a swamp, 13 in a clear hex, 10 or so behind the Dnieper and 10 in a swamp. The line is perfect in that the Germans can only get 2 hexes on any stack.
That's what I was thinking for the Leningrad MIL, as well as the 5-3 in Novgorod. There is a whole east of Pskov the Germans could slip through, though, as you say.
As for the "break" that the Russians got, I believe this is a direct result of the 2 sacrifices they made: the GARR in the river bend, and the CAV to the south of that. While I could have had Rommel sitting in Vitebsk if I'd played it right, that's as far as anyone could have gone. Most of the units involved in the attack on Riga couldn't move any closer to the Soviet lines. That includes the 2 x 8-4 INF from Konigsberg and a handful of slow units. Using the 2 x 7-4 INF to secure supply through Estonia was a decision made based on the fact that I had no intention of attacking Pskov that impulse. I could only get the river hexsides as attacking hexsides. Now I can come around behind him.
As the Germans, it really isn't my goal to take Leningrad this turn. If I can secure the rail link through Novgorod, I can start encircling the Northern defensive lines. Right now I only need 2 white-print units to keep Leningrad from breaking out and hurting me. If I add a unit or two per turn over the next three turns, when I have a spare HQ available, I can send him up there and start working on Leningrad.
I can't quite picture what you are describing east of Vitebsk, but I'll play around with it and see if I can figure out what it is you are describing. (I never was one who cuold hold a full chess board in my mind).
In the south, I still think the 4-3 INF sacrifice was a good move. That kept the river line out of ZOC, which means I can now try to get those 5-6 factors per hexside much more easily. The early start to the war in the USSR, and the anticipated need for a large number of Garrison duty units in France and Spain has left Germany spread fairly thin.
I expect that the length of this turn might make or break the German campaign in Russia. If it goes on as long as last year (14 impulses), then the Germans can probably win this war by the end of 1941. If it lasts only 8 or 9 impulses, it will be much more difficult. The Germans really needed 1 more impulse in M/A '41 to set up for the Persian front and to continue the advance into Russia. If you think the Soviets are fairly hard up right now, imagine what would have happened if they had to suffer another impulse of attacks last turn -- even in Rain. 
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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 
Then the Germans will only have Rundstedt for supply and won't be able to advance on Crimea, Rostov, Kharkov, and Moscow simultaneously. The German frontline will be 9 hexes wide. I estimate it would run from the Sea of Azov to south of Bryansk. The Don river line + Rostov is about as wide as the Dnieper and you only need 2 units in Crimea to hold that section of the line. This 'plan' gives up a lot of factories that otherwise the USSR might be able to rail out. But wouldn't it be sweet to be holding the Don with all the forces you have now? I guess that decision could be delayed for a turn. By the way, a successful ground strike on Rundstedt means the Germans will not move any farther than 4 hexes from their fearless leader this turn.
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