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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

 
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/16/2020 3:31:27 PM   
Lowpe


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Obvert,

Did you go thru and reset supply level demands at all the Honshu bases...or do they still have the levels you set from the opening days of the war for factory expansion?

Great game!

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/20/2020 8:55:47 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rader

Obvert - I've thoroughly enjoyed your AAR and hope you will grant us some summarizing words when the campaign draws to a close. Kudos to you for pressing this one to the (almost) end!


Thanks! It's been a pleasure to get this game into the later days of the campaign. A big thanks to Dan for taking it over and pounding my guys so thoroughly in these last months.

quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor

Yeah, I don't recall any AAR which survived to 1946. I would gladly see your industry screens. I suspect manpower never played any role in planning? How many pilots are there still in school? Have you moved all oil and resources, before Allies cut off routes? How is the state of your merchant fleet? And what is the state of cut off garrisons on islands? Is there shortage of anything (well, except supply)?


I'll give some updates soon. Been slammed first with work, then my wife being sick, now my daughter! Can't wait for the end of winter here.

_____________________________

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/20/2020 8:59:29 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Obvert,

Did you go thru and reset supply level demands at all the Honshu bases...or do they still have the levels you set from the opening days of the war for factory expansion?

Great game!


I did reset many but some are still set to 10-20k. At this point it doesn't matter too much. He hasn't extensively bombed airbases and Tokyo, Osaka, Kobe and Yokohama are still viable big airbases with 20k+ every turn. Usually a lot more. Tokyo recently slipped below 100k for the first time, but I'm amazed I'm still able to replenish airframes and fly all of the CAP I want virtually everywhere. Nagasaki is the one big base I've had trouble keeping going, but I've got a small TF pulling from one of the offshore islands that had a stash of 30k supplies.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 9:52:00 AM   
obvert


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On the 14th some limited strikes in the day give a few more points to my total, which has been hovering at 89k for a while.

Dan seems to be moving forward now on Hokkaido, and I've started sending a bit of supply there. Sapporo has level 9 forts and I'll aim to stand there but don't have much hope to do much at this stage. All industry is bombed out North of Sendai.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:08:36 AM   
obvert


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January 15-21, 1946



This period continued with many smaller day light sweeps and strikes, and very little night bombing of major targets. The CAP still has teeth and got to a bigger strike on the 16th, doing a good number of 4Es to bolster our numbers. Allied sweeps are more productive these days but rarely get 2:1 still.






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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:09:57 AM   
obvert


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Here is a picture of Hokkaido and the Allied advance. Most IJA troops made it to Sapporo so we'll see if enough supply can move in to do something there.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:12:41 AM   
obvert


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Another big strike comes over on the 20th and we get similar results.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:13:40 AM   
obvert


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The Allied VPs continue to creep upwards but will take some big swings when the Hokkaido bases fall.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:15:24 AM   
obvert


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Big sweeps including a few groups of P-80s do some damage on the 26th.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:16:37 AM   
obvert


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Allied progress on Hokkaido. Not enough supply is moving to Sapporo unfortunately as all remaining bases are low and only a trickle can be moved over.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:18:34 AM   
obvert


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A shot of Tokyo. Believe it or not, I've still been shipping some resources back from Mindanao. The factories here don't run most of the time. The defences have kept a lot of the Strat bombing points from being harvested though.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:19:38 AM   
obvert


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The end of January and still hanging by a thread.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:20:48 AM   
obvert


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A look at industry and remaining stocks. A lot of good. One very important bad; resources. Very few left producing in the Home Islands.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:22:32 AM   
obvert


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A massive set of sweeps on Feb 5. Didn't do badly considering the quality of the competition.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:23:14 AM   
obvert


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With Sapporo falling the Allies are getting close now.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:24:37 AM   
obvert


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This was another huge day in the air. A set of sweeps and Strat bombing in daylight against Osaka.Definitely happy with the outcome, but stuff is burning and Allied Vps stack up closer every day.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:25:39 AM   
obvert


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With the beasts that were downed though the Japanese VP score went above 90k which is pretty cool.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/21/2020 10:26:25 AM   
obvert


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The allies inching close to the finish line.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/22/2020 1:46:04 PM   
Bif1961


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the end is nigh and one day away maybe from the 2-1 VP level.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/22/2020 1:58:40 PM   
inqistor


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

A look at industry and remaining stocks. A lot of good. One very important bad; resources. Very few left producing in the Home Islands.




Jeez, you still have 3.7 mil of fuel? And you are making 1743 planes per month? I wonder, which unit uses Vickers VI tank? :)

There seems also to be bug with Type 4, and Type 93 mines, as they were never used, or produced.


Fuel, HI, and armament stockpiles probably will last till end of game. Good job.

I never thought, that it would be possible to run out of Resources though. Where are those 3 millions located? Those islands NE of Java? Is that recent accumulation, or some long time stockpiling?

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Post #: 3590
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/22/2020 9:06:51 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

A look at industry and remaining stocks. A lot of good. One very important bad; resources. Very few left producing in the Home Islands.


Jeez, you still have 3.7 mil of fuel? And you are making 1743 planes per month? I wonder, which unit uses Vickers VI tank? :)

There seems also to be bug with Type 4, and Type 93 mines, as they were never used, or produced.


Fuel, HI, and armament stockpiles probably will last till end of game. Good job.

I never thought, that it would be possible to run out of Resources though. Where are those 3 millions located? Those islands NE of Java? Is that recent accumulation, or some long time stockpiling?


It's not too hard to run short of resources when the Allies take the North. Sakhalin is a huge production centre and losing that alone will send Japan into a deficit. That can e easily remedied by pulling from the SRA.

Dan though began bombing resources all over Hokkaido and Northern Honshu because they were the largest factories available. So in a few months I lost another 1,000-1,500 resource production points. Suddenly it was an oh **** kind of moment. I've been hoarding and saving virtually everything well beyond my previous targets, and one of the major components of the economy has just gone into freefall with not enough time or pulling capacity to build a new positive pool.

I should have seen that coming earlier, but to be honest, there isn't much more I would have gained by now anyway. Most HI/LI in large urban centres other than Tokyo are wiped out, plus more supply generation would only allow me to stall a bit longer in some ground battles, nothing more. The only action I have to compete right now is CAP and that is still functional, so the fuel and the armaments/vehicles points and the gazzillion HI I have saved does me diddly squat.

I can still produce fighters and I can still fly them.

_____________________________

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 12:54:41 AM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
It's not too hard to run short of resources when the Allies take the North. Sakhalin is a huge production centre and losing that alone will send Japan into a deficit. That can e easily remedied by pulling from the SRA.

On the one hand it shows that longer resource convoys other than your usual Sakhalin-Hokkaido-Korea-China might be useful. On the other hand, few games will be as long as this one..

Also, 150 Super Forts downed in one day

< Message edited by GetAssista -- 2/23/2020 12:55:18 AM >

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 7:37:03 AM   
castor troy


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Where are you getting the pilots from? Losing hundreds of pilots in one day in 46 really puzzles me when the replacement rates are at something like 300 per month.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 8:53:32 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Where are you getting the pilots from? Losing hundreds of pilots in one day in 46 really puzzles me when the replacement rates are at something like 300 per month.


When the KB went up in flames on day 2 of the campaign I decided I'd have to devote most of my energy to the air war in this one. I began intensive training using every available group from the beginning, compromising some offensive use early and leaving most of the work to the IJN.

In the second half of the war playing both Sqz and Dan, I favoured a defensive air setup, letting the Allies lose more pilots per day while ours were mostly WIA and lived to fight another day.

Below is an example from a day when I lost almost 300 airframes. Pilot losses were relatively few, and I'll bet anything the Allies lost more than the Japanese that day. Only 78 KIA from 282 downed. Also, as you can see, I still have a few in the pipeline, and a lot in the late war training groups with their extended reserve numbers, usually 2x the active number or more. There are more than enough pilots at current rates of loss to fight well beyond the supply available.

I have some thoughts on this I'll go into later. I don't think this is idea for game balance, but it is what it is when both sides can do it.






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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 8:54:16 AM   
obvert


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Here is an example of reserves in both the IJN and IJAAF.





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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 11:05:54 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
It's not too hard to run short of resources when the Allies take the North. Sakhalin is a huge production centre and losing that alone will send Japan into a deficit. That can e easily remedied by pulling from the SRA.

On the one hand it shows that longer resource convoys other than your usual Sakhalin-Hokkaido-Korea-China might be useful. On the other hand, few games will be as long as this one..

Also, 150 Super Forts downed in one day


I've always prioritised fuel and oil on return convoys from the SRA, but this one made me think that maybe it's better to manage that in balance with developing a slightly larger resource pool early in the HI in order to deal with unforeseen contingencies in the late game. If Sakhalin and Hokkaido resources hadn't been stripped away in mid-44 then the Japanese would be in better shape. Usually from other areas resources would not be the primary Strat bombing target. From the North they are.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 1:58:37 PM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Where are you getting the pilots from? Losing hundreds of pilots in one day in 46 really puzzles me when the replacement rates are at something like 300 per month.


When the KB went up in flames on day 2 of the campaign I decided I'd have to devote most of my energy to the air war in this one. I began intensive training using every available group from the beginning, compromising some offensive use early and leaving most of the work to the IJN.

In the second half of the war playing both Sqz and Dan, I favoured a defensive air setup, letting the Allies lose more pilots per day while ours were mostly WIA and lived to fight another day.

Below is an example from a day when I lost almost 300 airframes. Pilot losses were relatively few, and I'll bet anything the Allies lost more than the Japanese that day. Only 78 KIA from 282 downed. Also, as you can see, I still have a few in the pipeline, and a lot in the late war training groups with their extended reserve numbers, usually 2x the active number or more. There are more than enough pilots at current rates of loss to fight well beyond the supply available.

I have some thoughts on this I'll go into later. I don't think this is idea for game balance, but it is what it is when both sides can do it.







your screenshot of the pilot pool explains my question, you get 450 IJN and 615 IJA pilots each month while I'm only used to some 300 pilots as replacements alltogether which is not even 1/3 of your pilots. What scenario is this?

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 2:02:55 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I've always prioritised fuel and oil on return convoys from the SRA, but this one made me think that maybe it's better to manage that in balance with developing a slightly larger resource pool early in the HI in order to deal with unforeseen contingencies in the late game. If Sakhalin and Hokkaido resources hadn't been stripped away in mid-44 then the Japanese would be in better shape. Usually from other areas resources would not be the primary Strat bombing target. From the North they are.


I believe your opponent did no have interdicting flow of fuel, supply, and resources from the SRA. I realize that Allied subs are pretty much neutered against escorted convoys but their is more than one way to skin a cat. Dan just did not make a concerted effort to choke off your industry. Sure, you can bomb it late in the game, but as you have pointed out, important production continued for a long time. My 2 cents

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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 3598
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 5:05:04 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Where are you getting the pilots from? Losing hundreds of pilots in one day in 46 really puzzles me when the replacement rates are at something like 300 per month.


When the KB went up in flames on day 2 of the campaign I decided I'd have to devote most of my energy to the air war in this one. I began intensive training using every available group from the beginning, compromising some offensive use early and leaving most of the work to the IJN.

In the second half of the war playing both Sqz and Dan, I favoured a defensive air setup, letting the Allies lose more pilots per day while ours were mostly WIA and lived to fight another day.

Below is an example from a day when I lost almost 300 airframes. Pilot losses were relatively few, and I'll bet anything the Allies lost more than the Japanese that day. Only 78 KIA from 282 downed. Also, as you can see, I still have a few in the pipeline, and a lot in the late war training groups with their extended reserve numbers, usually 2x the active number or more. There are more than enough pilots at current rates of loss to fight well beyond the supply available.

I have some thoughts on this I'll go into later. I don't think this is idea for game balance, but it is what it is when both sides can do it.




your screenshot of the pilot pool explains my question, you get 450 IJN and 615 IJA pilots each month while I'm only used to some 300 pilots as replacements alltogether which is not even 1/3 of your pilots. What scenario is this?


It's scenario 1 stock. Vanilla as it gets.

_____________________________

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/23/2020 5:17:30 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth



quote:

I've always prioritised fuel and oil on return convoys from the SRA, but this one made me think that maybe it's better to manage that in balance with developing a slightly larger resource pool early in the HI in order to deal with unforeseen contingencies in the late game. If Sakhalin and Hokkaido resources hadn't been stripped away in mid-44 then the Japanese would be in better shape. Usually from other areas resources would not be the primary Strat bombing target. From the North they are.


quote:


I believe your opponent did no have interdicting flow of fuel, supply, and resources from the SRA. I realize that Allied subs are pretty much neutered against escorted convoys but their is more than one way to skin a cat. Dan just did not make a concerted effort to choke off your industry. Sure, you can bomb it late in the game, but as you have pointed out, important production continued for a long time. My 2 cents


Eventually he got around to it, but I think he assumed being in such close proximity to the HI would be enough to shut down the economy.

Playing both the Japanese and the Allies late, and now the second time through with the Japanese, I've realised a few things. Its very hard to shut down airframe production. You have to target factories directly, not just manpower, and many are in areas that are always well defended. It's much easier to hit manpower at the top 7-8 industrial centers and wipe clean the HI/LI to create a supply production problem.

Many Allied players don't have a plan for what they want to do with strategic bombing because they've not played Japan, or at least not to the bitter end, and don't know the several available paths to creating a shutdown in some portion of the critical industry. In this game Dan chose to really prioritise resources, and that was a huge surprise, as I've never heard it discussed or thought of it as a strategy. Once it was a problem I realised that whether intended or not, it can be just as viable as shutting down oil/fuel or Strat bombing HI/LI.

The last bit of frantic shipping of resources back to the HI probably added a good few months worth of supply, if not more. I thought he would have taken Chichi and Iwo on the way to China just to get some control of the shipping lanes. That would have closed things much earlier.

< Message edited by obvert -- 2/24/2020 8:17:07 AM >


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