Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!!

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!!

I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't .

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I disagree..air losses on the alpha strike aren't extreme, and it is a wonderful day. Nicely done couple of days here, and us JFB's need more days like this to punish these forward Kitchen sink attacks.

The Allies have suffered, and I bet you bought yourself a month or two of relatively light strategic bombing, because the Allies will struggle to bring in sufficient supplies...this is where I think you need to attack. Whatever you can do to drain Allied supplies I think will pay you back with a stronger economy for longer, or more planes if the Allies target your fighter/engine production.

I would look at your subs that get the Kaiten upgrade, and think twice before sending them in now. Also, can you get some subs off Ramree and between Alaska and Canada.

Given all those troops at Prome, I bet cargo ships are running into Ramree to pump supply there. Think targeted strikes perhaps?

Anyhow, nicely done. Gotta love the Grace.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!!

I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't .

I get it. It's great to sink them, but even 4-6 months without this many CVs can be a big blow to the Allies, assuming that is that he has to be supporting Shikuka with them. Once bombing starts from there it'll hurt me, but it'll also reduce supply for the Allies quickly.

I've got 10 more subs ready to sacrifice themselves over the next few days. I'll be interested to see which way he goes here. Does he move back through the Kuriles, or out to the Aleutians?

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should clarify my statement on supplies and strategic bombing. Yes, I am sure there is good supply there and most likely some strategic bombing will occur. But I think these stinging attacks will cause the Allies to slow down their operational tempo -- subsequently I think there will be a supply shortage sooner and it will curtail the strategic bombing campaign.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should clarify my statement on supplies and strategic bombing. Yes, I am sure there is good supply there and most likely some strategic bombing will occur. But I think these stinging attacks will cause the Allies to slow down their operational tempo -- subsequently I think there will be a supply shortage sooner and it will curtail the strategic bombing campaign.

I see your clarification and raise you a further clarification!

I do not think any such supply shortage for CR will be forthcoming.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I'm not so sure. Torpedo hits on USN CVs, the big ones, can sometimes do extremely minimal damage. The "typical" damage result from a single torpedo hit is usually in the 10-20 range, sometimes even most of it being minor damage from counter-flooding. At times, the damage can be just a couple of points of minor damage and no major damage. Given the number of hits and the damage messages shown, my guesstimate on the median outcome here would be that you probably sunk or mission-killed 2 CVs and 1 CVL, with the Saratoga being out for maybe 4-6 months at the outside (potentially as little as 2 if the explosion wasn't that bad). The others that you hit might only be out of action for 6 weeks to patch up low levels of damage. Keep in mind also that CR is not shy about using ships with some level of damage if he needs them, so long as they are operational and he has weighed the risks.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Allies have the option of running the ships damaged, so if a carrier is still flight worthy, it stayed on the front I believe but perhaps in less risky areas.

I amazed the Essex went down with only 2 torp and 2 bomb hits. Kudos.

I go back to what I said before, a very solid couple of days --- probably haven't seen such success late in game since Koniu or your last IJ game versus Jocke.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

So over the past two weeks and two different strikes against the DS, here are the damage records. I'll also include the sub damage info, and for each of those there was also a follow-on explosion message.

Under each one I've estimated wether they're sunk or how long I think they'll be out of the area for repairs, including transit time to WC or PH. I count 13 CVs here, so that might be all available right now, (discounting USN just arrived on WC and RN ships just arrived in the IO). All 8 CVLs are present.

What do you think? Please change my estimates if you disagree.

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ORIGINAL: obvert


Hit by KB


Strike 1
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CV Essex, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
Ammo storage explosion on CV Essex
scuttled (340 VPs shown in ships sunk report)
Agree

CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
1-2 months (Adak/Dutch)
Just 1 large bomb? 2 months is too much. Maybe 3 weeks, could be as little as 2.

CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 2, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
2-3 months (WC/PH)
No explosions? I'm going with 1 month.

CVL Bataan, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
1-2 months (Adak/Dutch)
As with Yorktown, definitely not 2 months, but it's also a smaller ship so the bomb could have done more damage and it is likewise easier to repair... still, maybe 1 month at most. Maybe 3 weeks.


Strike 2
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CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
sunk or 10-12 months at WC/PH (12 F4U-2 lost on ground day of strike)
This one could be down, maybe. Definitely not now, but en route.. or maybe she lives. Extreme levels of damage are harder to guess repair times for. I would guess 8-11 months once in the yards, depending on presence of naval support and/or AR's.

CV Death From Above, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
Ammo storage explosion on CV Death From Above
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Death From Above
4-5 months (WC/PH)
The ammo explosion and fires could result in minor flooding only, depending on the die roll. Given no "heavy fires" I'm going with 3 months, including travel time to a yard.

CV John Wick, Torpedo hits 2
4-6 months (WC/PH)
No explosions and no fires? Were there any "listing, counter flooding" or "Severe damage" or "Critical damage" messages? Without any of these, I'm going with 2 months. With 1 or more, 3-4 months depending on severity.

CV Illustrious, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
Ammo storage explosion on CV Illustrious
sunk (14 Avenger I lost on ground day of strike)
Agree

CVL Cowpens, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
Massive explosion on CVL Cowpens
sunk (12 F4U-2 lost on ground day of strike)
This is why I don't think Lexington is sunk yet. This is where the American fighters "DOG" are coming from.

CVL San Jacinto, Torpedo hits 1
2-3 months (Adak/Dutch)
2 months if she has to travel to Prince Rupert or Seattle. Less if she doesn't (such as presence of an ARD in the Aleutians).

BC Renown, Bomb hits 1
This is probably just system damage.

Hit by subs
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CV Franklin, Torpedo hit 1
Ammo storage explosion on CV Franklin
4-5 months (WC/PH)
Depends on the other damage messages... if the explosion was the only secondary message, then I'm going with 2 months once she reaches a yard.

CV Saratoga, Torpedo hit 1
Ammo storage explosion on CV Saratoga
4-5 months (WC/PH)
Same as Franklin.


Undamaged but seen during strikes
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CV Emperor Norton I.
CV Intrepid
CV Enterprise
CV Hornet
CV Saratoga
CV Bunker Hill

CVL Independence
CVL Princeton
CVL Langley
CVL Monterey

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!!

I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't .

I get it. It's great to sink them, but even 4-6 months without this many CVs can be a big blow to the Allies, assuming that is that he has to be supporting Shikuka with them. Once bombing starts from there it'll hurt me, but it'll also reduce supply for the Allies quickly.

I've got 10 more subs ready to sacrifice themselves over the next few days. I'll be interested to see which way he goes here. Does he move back through the Kuriles, or out to the Aleutians?

I'm not so sure. Torpedo hits on USN CVs, the big ones, can sometimes do extremely minimal damage. The "typical" damage result from a single torpedo hit is usually in the 10-20 range, sometimes even most of it being minor damage from counter-flooding. At times, the damage can be just a couple of points of minor damage and no major damage. Given the number of hits and the damage messages shown, my guesstimate on the median outcome here would be that you probably sunk or mission-killed 2 CVs and 1 CVL, with the Saratoga being out for maybe 4-6 months at the outside (potentially as little as 2 if the explosion wasn't that bad). The others that you hit might only be out of action for 6 weeks to patch up low levels of damage. Keep in mind also that CR is not shy about using ships with some level of damage if he needs them, so long as they are operational and he has weighed the risks.

I'm also not convinced that he doesn't already have everything he needs on the Sakhalins to begin strat bombing on his own terms. If he did need to run more supplies in, LBA coverage from the Sakhalins plus the simply the still-intact CVs and CVEs that he used here would be enough to get through with what he needed.

Make no mistake, I'm not saying that you didn't net some cushion VPs here. Even if those 2 crippled CVs live, you probably traded around a 1:1 for several hundred VPs - which buys you several hundred in terms of the autovictory ratio you are trying to avoid. I'm just saying that I don't think this VP hit delays him at all at this juncture in terms of future landings or a bombing campaign.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

So over the past two weeks and two different strikes against the DS, here are the damage records. I'll also include the sub damage info, and for each of those there was also a follow-on explosion message.

Under each one I've estimated wether they're sunk or how long I think they'll be out of the area for repairs, including transit time to WC or PH. I count 13 CVs here, so that might be all available right now, (discounting USN just arrived on WC and RN ships just arrived in the IO). All 8 CVLs are present.

What do you think? Please change my estimates if you disagree.

I think, in general, you're overestimating the repair time - particularly for bombs. Unfortunately, I haven't "cracked" the bomb damage code yet. It seems to vary much more than the messages imply. With torpedoes, there's usually a pretty good "feel" for how bad the damage is based on the messages - a high durability ship that just shows "belt armor penetration" for a torpedo hit might not have taken much damage at all, for example, and may not even need to be put in a shipyard.

My estimates in simple bold. I'm including some small amount of travel time here, presumably to Adak (if it's port 7 or 8 now). To Prince Rupert or Seattle if the ship definitely needs a shipyard.

I'm basing my assumption on my experience that a single torpedo hit, whether airborne or sub-launched, is usually only about 10-15 major flooding damage on a USN CV for the average hit. Without additional secondary damage messages, damage could be repairable by a level 7+ port. With additional messages, damage from a single hit could reach the mid-30s in Major damage if it was bad enough. With just the most common message ("Listing, counter-flooding") the damage seems to be right around that average of 10-15 or so. Minor damage could be another 10-15, unless there are also fires that result in more minor damage.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

Have to agree, the Allies can absorb this kind of loss at this stage if the operation succeeds. Very risky operation for CR. Really a well fought battle for both sides. You came away without any carrier losses. Great job.

I think the biggest reason that the Allies should not attempt an operation such as this is the lack of suitable forward shipyards when things go bad. It is a real time suck to have to send ships back to Pearl and the West Coast. It is why I don't much care for the Northern Axis. The Allies really need a front line shipyard once the approach to Japan starts. This means Manila or Singapore-perhaps Hong Kong but that generally takes too long to take.

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ORIGINAL: ny59giants

He should have at least one of the huge ARDs that can take a CV or BB. Add in ARs and Naval Support to port at Adak or Dutch Harbor should help turn around time.

I hope you have some high endurance subs steaming for or off the mouth to Puget Sound. Brementon repair shipyard should be used for a few of these CV/CVLs.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I think you can bog the Allies down in a very messy campaign here if you throw in everything the IJN has to offer.

The Allies have only two airbases, which is a pretty tall order in terms of trying to close them down in 1944, but it's possible. You're fighting in your own backyard, while everything American that's not already in position will need to run the gauntlet of the Kuriles.

It's down to the IJN gun-tubes to do serious work here. I forget if you can bombard Toyohara from the western hexside, but check if it's possible. If not, you can base DD's out of Wakkanai and do quick bombardment runs under decent CAP from Hokkaido.

Shikuka is a tougher nut, but still possible if you can get a solid bombardment in with the IJN heavies. You won't close the airbase, or if you do, it won't be for long. The name of this game is trashing air group morale and winning the sweeping war.

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The maximum pressure needs to be applied on Allied air assets here, and that means a holistic attack plan.

I'd propose IJN 2E's on night airbase attack at high altitude. I doubt they'll hit much, but it should draw Allied planes on to night CAP and might wear down Allied morale some. The IJN single engine bombers should be sufficient to handle naval strikes on forward targets.

I'd keep the IJA 2E fleet on Honshu, ready to be flown to Hokkaido to mount a low-altitude airbase attack in the event that you start winning the sweep war. At low altitude the planes will die in droves to flak, but if you can gut the Allies air groups sufficiently you can really get the ball rolling.

You're an old enough hand that I doubt you need much tips for the air war, but if you're feeling very nefarious, send a big chunk of low-value shipping up the west coast of Sakhalin, and keep it under a massive LRCAP from Hokkaido. You could conceivably park it two hexes west of Shikuka and draw off Allied airstrikes away from any IJN movements in the region.

That's how I'd do it, given hindsight. Marshal the IJN around Hokkaido, send a big diversionary force up the west coast one day before the IJN sorties, then slam all my capital ships, backed up by the KB into the Shikuka area. Mines, DDs, subs and PT boats will all take a toll, but his B-29's will take a greater one in a few months if you don't win big now.

The Kuriles/Sakhalin is a pretty decent place to turn into a quagmire of attrition, even more so given the Allied decision to neglect the Kurile islands completely.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

There is a lot of discussion about that on Dan's board. You should mention it to him. There were some big issues with massive air battles way back when Radar and Greyjoy were going at it around the home islands. It is so rare for games to reach this point that it could be that it is just resurfacing.