RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 3:32:05 AM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

Allied flak in '44. yuck. I've never come up with a counter for it really. Going high enough to mitigate it means basically no hits, so useless mission. Can't get enough bombers (actually total bombs) to get the hit% to work. This is where a 4E with a 10xbomb bombload would really show up. The IJ 2E 4x250 just can't generate enough bombs to get any hits � So, you have to go in lower and the losses are really high ...

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2011

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 7:50:50 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Allied flak in '44. yuck. I've never come up with a counter for it really. Going high enough to mitigate it means basically no hits, so useless mission. Can't get enough bombers (actually total bombs) to get the hit% to work. This is where a 4E with a 10xbomb bombload would really show up. The IJ 2E 4x250 just can't generate enough bombs to get any hits � So, you have to go in lower and the losses are really high ...

Yes. I gave up bombing Shikuka after a few tries. It is impossible to get any return on even a big mission with 300 2E when I lose 10-15% to flak and get 2-3 hits.

That said. If I don't bomb anything, but let the Allies hit the Japanese best flak guns often, they take some heavy losses too with all of the AA improvements. I've recently moved another regiment into Toungoo that has 12cm flak guns, and voila, 3-4 more losses per turn from Allied bombing runs.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 2012

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 8:37:58 AM

Alfred

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Allied flak in '44. yuck. I've never come up with a counter for it really. Going high enough to mitigate it means basically no hits, so useless mission. Can't get enough bombers (actually total bombs) to get the hit% to work. This is where a 4E with a 10xbomb bombload would really show up. The IJ 2E 4x250 just can't generate enough bombs to get any hits � So, you have to go in lower and the losses are really high ...

Relatively speaking, there is an altitude "sweet spot" where the overall ROI on air-ground is improved. Whether it is then a satisfactory ROI is a different question. Air-ship is a nastier situation for the bombers as there is no equivalent "sweet spot". As this is relative finding the "sweet spot" does not necessarily result in fewer aircraft losses in aggregate but rather that the ratio of losses to hits achieved is better. Trying to fly above the flak ceiling (remember there is some fuzziness to flak ceiling anyway) will not find the "sweet spot".

Much is dependent on the model AA gun and the aircraft types used. Where the flak defence is comprised of multiple, layered ceiling model AA guns, there may in fact be no "sweet spot" at all. Mixing various different bomber models in the same raid also makes it harder to find the "sweet spot".

In very general terms you should bear the following in mind:

1. An AA gun has 3 ceiling effectiveness bands; the bottom third is usually it's least effective ceiling band.

2. The flak gap of classical WITP was not completely removed in AE. In AE you can encounter flak within the entire ceiling range (plus the fuzziness factor) but it may not be as intense around the old flak gap area.

3. The important factors to consider when choosing the bombers include (but not limited only to)

(a) having armour - sending a bomber which lacks armour against an Allied location bristling with flak is not advisable

(b) maneouver rating - single engine bombers will generally have a much better rating than 2 engine bombers

(c) DB and TB types should only be used in a level bombing capacity as this reduces their exposure to flak

Alfred

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 2013

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 9:13:03 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Allied flak in '44. yuck. I've never come up with a counter for it really. Going high enough to mitigate it means basically no hits, so useless mission. Can't get enough bombers (actually total bombs) to get the hit% to work. This is where a 4E with a 10xbomb bombload would really show up. The IJ 2E 4x250 just can't generate enough bombs to get any hits � So, you have to go in lower and the losses are really high ...

Relatively speaking, there is an altitude "sweet spot" where the overall ROI on air-ground is improved. Whether it is then a satisfactory ROI is a different question. Air-ship is a nastier situation for the bombers as there is no equivalent "sweet spot". As this is relative finding the "sweet spot" does not necessarily result in fewer aircraft losses in aggregate but rather that the ratio of losses to hits achieved is better. Trying to fly above the flak ceiling (remember there is some fuzziness to flak ceiling anyway) will not find the "sweet spot".

Much is dependent on the model AA gun and the aircraft types used. Where the flak defence is comprised of multiple, layered ceiling model AA guns, there may in fact be no "sweet spot" at all. Mixing various different bomber models in the same raid also makes it harder to find the "sweet spot".

In very general terms you should bear the following in mind:

1. An AA gun has 3 ceiling effectiveness bands; the bottom third is usually it's least effective ceiling band.

2. The flak gap of classical WITP was not completely removed in AE. In AE you can encounter flak within the entire ceiling range (plus the fuzziness factor) but it may not be as intense around the old flak gap area.

3. The important factors to consider when choosing the bombers include (but not limited only to)

(a) having armour - sending a bomber which lacks armour against an Allied location bristling with flak is not advisable

(b) maneouver rating - single engine bombers will generally have a much better rating than 2 engine bombers

(c) DB and TB types should only be used in a level bombing capacity as this reduces their exposure to flak

Alfred

Yeah, all of that. The gaps I see are only for Allied planes hitting me! Not gaps really just spots where it seems the payoff in hits merits their losses. My good 12cm DP guns tend to cause only damage (lots of it) but only get kills when they come really low or CAP is also present to add to the damage/possbily knock planes out of formation.

Durability (and lack of armor) seems to limit the 1E planes hitting heavily concentrated areas of flak. I see 2Es being very succeptible to losses rather than damage, as 4Es hitting the same positions can often ride out the damage and get home.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Alfred)

Post #: 2014

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 10:17:19 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Oct 13, 1944

Here are some of the combat reports. A nice haul of LSTs and troops (loading?) destroyed. Looks like he's tried to evacuate everything but there is still a bit left on the island.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Oct 13, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Marcus Island at 121,81, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Ashigara, Shell hits 40, and is sunk
DD Minazuki, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Perth
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Bagley
DD Allen
DD Thanet
DD Quadrant, Shell hits 1, on fire

Reduced sighting due to 10% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 10% moonlight: 6,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 123,85

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y1 Judy x 29

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y1 Judy: 4 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
LST-630, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
LST-634, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
LST-641, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
LST-639, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk
LST-632, Bomb hits 1, on fire
LST-644, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
LST-633, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Allied ground losses:
404 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (4 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 27 (11 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 10000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 123,85

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y1 Judy x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y1 Judy: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
LST-640, Bomb hits 1, on fire
LST-634, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
LST-641, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
LST-631, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
154 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 9 (5 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 123,85

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y1 Frances x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y1 Frances: 11 damaged
P1Y1 Frances: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
LST-637, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
LST-633, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
60 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x P1Y1 Frances bombing from 100 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 1 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Massive explosion on LST-637

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 124,83

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 2,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
E13A1 Jake x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
YMS BYMS-2059, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x E13A1 Jake bombing from 1000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 123,85

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 3 NM, estimated altitude 1,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
E13A1 Jake x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
LST-631, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
42 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x E13A1 Jake bombing from 1000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 123,85

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y1 Frances x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y1 Frances: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
LST-632, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
92 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x P1Y1 Frances bombing from 100 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 1 x 60 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2015

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 10:52:38 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Oct 14, 1944

Invasion Ketoi-Jima!!

The Allies pick the most vulnerable of the Kuriles bases for their first invasion. It's the one I started last and worked on least. It has 5 forts with 60% toward level 6, but now will not likely make it there. The only hope here is that it's also the only Kuriles base with a stacking limit, even in a non-stacking limit game. It can hold only 60k troops without a penalty. I've got about 46k there now, but the Allies have landed much more. In raw numbers about 85k, and that in stacking terms will be well over the limits.

That said they have four good divisions, including a whole lot of Marines. This is meant to be a quick and dirty grab. The chance the Japanese have is if the troops have extensive disruption caused by the contested landings, with lots of support troops shown as disabled by CD gun fire, and due to be well above the SL, they can't recover fatigue and disruption, and go through a lot of supply quickly. I saw a lot of engineers listed as destroyed and disrupted, so hopefully that massive engineer regiment will need some time to recover.

If he tries a DA with disruption high, this could snowball as it did when Torsten tried to land on Marcus and overstack it.

The Japanese will also attempt to air lift another division onto the base to round out the stacking limit to just about 60k. I've got 100+ transports now ready to go, and if not interdicted, they could get something there quickly.

This will be dicey, and I would put my money on the Allies with such a massive landing of the best troops available, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that the devs figured out how to inhibit these kinds of excessive moves with SL penalties.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Oct 14, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Yokohama/Yokosuka , at 113,61

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 19
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 10 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
xAK Syoka Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Port hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
Port Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 207 encounters mine field at Ketoi-jima (134,50) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

11 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Hobson, Shell hits 7, on fire
DD Laffey II, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

1st Base Force firing at DMS Hobson
DMS Hobson firing at 1st Base Force
1 mine cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 746 encounters mine field at Ketoi-jima (134,50)

Allied Ships
PT-485, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 48 encounters mine field at Ketoi-jima (134,50) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

24 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Hambleton, Shell hits 2
AM Triumph, Shell hits 8, heavy fires
APA Zeilin, Mine hits 1

Allied ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

1st Base Force firing at DMS Hambleton
DMS Hambleton firing at 1st Base Force
AM Triumph firing at 1st Base Force
1st Base Force firing at AM Triumph
11 mines cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 256 encounters mine field at Ketoi-jima (134,50) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

65 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Long, Shell hits 20, heavy fires, heavy damage
DMS Dorsey, Shell hits 6, on fire
DMS Southard, Shell hits 8

DMS Long firing at 1st Base Force
1st Base Force firing at DMS Long

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 126,87

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
E15K1 Norm x 2

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
LST-633, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x E15K1 Norm bombing from 1000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Marcus Island at 128,88

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
E13A1 Jake x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 2 damaged

Allied Ships
LST-638, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 27 (12 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x E13A1 Jake bombing from 1000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Massive explosion on LST-638

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

620 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Idaho
AK Bedford Victory, Shell hits 6
DD Warrington
APA Neville

Japanese ground losses:
256 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
387 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 59 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

BB Idaho firing at 71st Division
12cm 10YT DP Gun Battery engaging AK Bedford Victory at 13,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Ketoi-jima (134,50)

TF 48 troops unloading over beach at Ketoi-jima, 134,50

Allied ground losses:
54 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (0 destroyed, 4 disabled)

105mm M2 Howitzer damaged beyond repair during unload of 4th Marine Div /4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

561 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
CA Australia
DD Sampson
APA President Polk

Japanese ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
387 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

CA Australia firing at 49th Mountain Gun Regiment
DD Sampson firing at 71st Division

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

563 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DD Henley
APA Frederick Funston
DE Richard W. Suesens

Allied ground losses:
187 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 24 disabled

DD Henley firing at 71st Division
DD Henley fired at enemy troops

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Ketoi-jima (134,50)

TF 439 troops unloading over beach at Ketoi-jima, 134,50

Allied ground losses:
253 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 59 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 44 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (0 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 34 (0 destroyed, 34 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

553 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DD Drayton
AK Lesuth, Shell hits 1
DE Shelton
APA Winged Arrow

Allied ground losses:
118 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 62 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

DD Drayton firing at 71st Division

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

585 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LST-26, Shell hits 3
PF Bisbee
PC Reliance
LST-21, Shell hits 4
LST-27, Shell hits 6
LST-20, Shell hits 7
AM Herald

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging LST-26 at 5,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

556 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LST-119, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Revenge
PC Kimball
LST-120, Shell hits 1
LST-167
LST-121
LST-123
LST-124

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging LST-119 at 4,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Ketoi-jima (134,50)

TF 492 troops unloading over beach at Ketoi-jima, 134,50

Allied ground losses:
18 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 58 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (0 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 29 (0 destroyed, 29 disabled)

Pre-Invasion action off Ketoi-jima (134,50)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

115 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LST-274, Shell hits 14, on fire
PC Travis
AM Zeal
LST-277, Shell hits 10, on fire
LST-356, Shell hits 6, on fire
LST-355, Shell hits 2
LST-391

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging LST-274 at 5,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Ketoi-jima (134,50)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 20767 troops, 243 guns, 15 vehicles, Assault Value = 1113

Defending force 76827 troops, 828 guns, 1473 vehicles, Assault Value = 2251

Japanese ground losses:
71 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
33 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 15 (3 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Assaulting units:
85th Naval Guard Unit
36th Ind.Mixed Brigade
45th Ind.Mixed Brigade
71st Division
11th Ind.Mixed Regiment
3rd FF Const Unit
1st Base Force
5th RF Gun Battalion
34th Const Co
49th Mountain Gun Regiment
25th Special Base Force
11th RF Gun Bn /1

Defending units:
1st Army Tank Regiment
5th USMC Tank Battalion
3rd Marine Div /1
706th Tank Battalion
XI Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
8th Australian Div /1
1st Regiment
4th Marine Division
5th Australian Div /6
237th USN Base Force
Provisional GMC Grp

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/30/2018 1:02:34 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2016

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 11:09:22 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Of course as the DS moves in and my ASW and search planes suffer a bit, but I also did have them reduced slightly. The Allies continue to lose a lot of bombers to flak and ops losses.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2017

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 11:30:34 AM

ny59giants

Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline

Disruption - Which side can manage this the best may win the battle here. I would also double check your leaders to insure they can help. Any HQs nearby that can offer support to this effort?

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2018

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 12:58:06 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Here is a look at what the Allies have floating around. I'm not going near all of that!

Also below are the Japanese unit now in place. As mentioned, I'll see what else I can get onto the island quickly.

This is a chance to see how SL work and do some tests on reducing fatigue/disruption, using sub laid mines against bombardments, and any other kind of disruptive elements I can get there, like midgets and MTBs. That big engineer unit should drop forts with every attack unfortunately.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/31/2018 8:02:34 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2019

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 1:00:46 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants_MatrixForum

Disruption - Which side can manage this the best may win the battle here. I would also double check your leaders to insure they can help. Any HQs nearby that can offer support to this effort?

There are Army HQs in range, yes. I don't have anything planning for Ketoi specifically though. I've got them planning for Onneketon, Uruppa, Para and Etorofu, I think.

I should probably move General Defence HQ from Tokyo up to Ominato for these battles. I have the Northern Fleets Command HQ there, but not sure that'll impact ground combat at all. All unit leaders have been chosen for high inspiration, land skill, and leadership.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to ny59giants)

Post #: 2020

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 6:46:15 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

Allies coming with some A units there at Ketoi.

I wish you had some AA and more AT/ART there.

And that is the weakest held island? Wow!!!

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2021

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 7:21:24 PM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Allied flak in '44. yuck. I've never come up with a counter for it really. Going high enough to mitigate it means basically no hits, so useless mission. Can't get enough bombers (actually total bombs) to get the hit% to work. This is where a 4E with a 10xbomb bombload would really show up. The IJ 2E 4x250 just can't generate enough bombs to get any hits � So, you have to go in lower and the losses are really high ...

Relatively speaking, there is an altitude "sweet spot" where the overall ROI on air-ground is improved. Whether it is then a satisfactory ROI is a different question. Air-ship is a nastier situation for the bombers as there is no equivalent "sweet spot". As this is relative finding the "sweet spot" does not necessarily result in fewer aircraft losses in aggregate but rather that the ratio of losses to hits achieved is better. Trying to fly above the flak ceiling (remember there is some fuzziness to flak ceiling anyway) will not find the "sweet spot".

Much is dependent on the model AA gun and the aircraft types used. Where the flak defence is comprised of multiple, layered ceiling model AA guns, there may in fact be no "sweet spot" at all. Mixing various different bomber models in the same raid also makes it harder to find the "sweet spot".

In very general terms you should bear the following in mind:

1. An AA gun has 3 ceiling effectiveness bands; the bottom third is usually it's least effective ceiling band.

2. The flak gap of classical WITP was not completely removed in AE. In AE you can encounter flak within the entire ceiling range (plus the fuzziness factor) but it may not be as intense around the old flak gap area.

3. The important factors to consider when choosing the bombers include (but not limited only to)

(a) having armour - sending a bomber which lacks armour against an Allied location bristling with flak is not advisable

(b) maneouver rating - single engine bombers will generally have a much better rating than 2 engine bombers

(c) DB and TB types should only be used in a level bombing capacity as this reduces their exposure to flak

Alfred

Yeah, all of that. The gaps I see are only for Allied planes hitting me!

+1
Precisely my issue. I know where the IJ holes are, ok better to say I know where the IJ AA can hit (shorter list). On the allied side, there may be some 'gaps', but I haven't found any of use yet � ;)

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Post #: 2022

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/30/2018 7:42:42 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

Spent some time looking for the relevant hotkey for 'national code'. My olde tyme printed manual didn't have it. Hitting '4' displays the national codes. Unfortunately, looks like most of the Kuriles are '101'. Japan proper is '100'. So taking the Kuriles won't trigger Kamikazes. EXCEPT for Paramushiro Jima. That's code '100'. That and the no-name, no-dot base hex immediately to the North of it.

I kind of wished that he had focused on Paramushiro, as that capture would have given you another potential arrow in your quiver to deal with the Allied invasions in this area. Here's hoping.

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Post #: 2023

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 3:02:09 AM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Spent some time looking for the relevant hotkey for 'national code'. My olde tyme printed manual didn't have it. Hitting '4' displays the national codes. Unfortunately, looks like most of the Kuriles are '101'. Japan proper is '100'. So taking the Kuriles won't trigger Kamikazes. EXCEPT for Paramushiro Jima. That's code '100'. That and the no-name, no-dot base hex immediately to the North of it.

I kind of wished that he had focused on Paramushiro, as that capture would have given you another potential arrow in your quiver to deal with the Allied invasions in this area. Here's hoping.

Not really. The invasion package is pretty lackluster for Japan, and at this point in the war they'd really only be worthwhile as backline garrison troops. They arrive with 20-30 Exp, IIRC.

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2024

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 7:30:35 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Allies coming with some A units there at Ketoi.

I wish you had some AA and more AT/ART there.

And that is the weakest held island? Wow!!!

There is a lot of AA in the Base force unit, with the 12cm DP guns and 8cm guns. Lots of little stuff too, 25mm and 20mm. I can't really allocate Army AA units to the Kuriles now as the ones on the HI are stretched already to cover all of the industry, resources and other strat bombing targets.

There are two AT gun units here, more than any other Kuriles island right now. The arty unit isn't stellar, but it adds a bit and has even been hitting the LSTs which is a bonus.

This one will be interesting. I'll keep the mines coming and the troops transporting if I can, although after day one I bet he'll cotton on to just how much can be thrown on quickly. We'll see where the DS goes.

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Post #: 2025

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 8:06:55 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Spent some time looking for the relevant hotkey for 'national code'. My olde tyme printed manual didn't have it. Hitting '4' displays the national codes. Unfortunately, looks like most of the Kuriles are '101'. Japan proper is '100'. So taking the Kuriles won't trigger Kamikazes. EXCEPT for Paramushiro Jima. That's code '100'. That and the no-name, no-dot base hex immediately to the North of it.

I kind of wished that he had focused on Paramushiro, as that capture would have given you another potential arrow in your quiver to deal with the Allied invasions in this area. Here's hoping.

I wished he'd go for Para too!! But not for kamis. That would be nice, but the main goal there is to have him face the forts, the CD guns, the mass of troops on the island, and get some good Allied units stuck in a bit of a tar baby. Ketoi could still be tough if the stacking is a much over as I think it is, but those are very good Allied ground forces.

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Post #: 2026

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 2:37:14 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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What has happened on Marcus Island?

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Post #: 2027

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 2:52:25 PM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

What has happened on Marcus Island?

Lackluster invasion attempt repelled.

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Post #: 2028

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 3:21:55 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

What has happened on Marcus Island?

Lackluster invasion attempt repelled.

CR pulled out the troops?

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Post #: 2029

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 5:30:38 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
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Hans is joking. I think.

Obvert has three games going and I can only imagine the time it takes...

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Post #: 2030

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 5:41:08 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Hans is joking. I think.

Obvert has three games going and I can only imagine the time it takes...

Ah! He hooked me easily because it did look like an invasion 'lite'. I do wonder if it will succeed without reinforcement or some other augmentation.

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Post #: 2031

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 5/31/2018 10:29:25 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Spent some time looking for the relevant hotkey for 'national code'. My olde tyme printed manual didn't have it. Hitting '4' displays the national codes. Unfortunately, looks like most of the Kuriles are '101'. Japan proper is '100'. So taking the Kuriles won't trigger Kamikazes. EXCEPT for Paramushiro Jima. That's code '100'. That and the no-name, no-dot base hex immediately to the North of it.

I kind of wished that he had focused on Paramushiro, as that capture would have given you another potential arrow in your quiver to deal with the Allied invasions in this area. Here's hoping.

Not really. The invasion package is pretty lackluster for Japan, and at this point in the war they'd really only be worthwhile as backline garrison troops. They arrive with 20-30 Exp, IIRC.

That may be, but my comments were mostly in reference to kamikaze availability rather than the homeland defense scrub LCUs that the Japanese get when triggered. I'd still take them as backline garrison troops-the time to get them properly outfitted and (start) training is now with the enemy on the doorstep rather than when he's on Honshu or Hokkaido proper.

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Post #: 2032

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/1/2018 1:25:04 AM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Spent some time looking for the relevant hotkey for 'national code'. My olde tyme printed manual didn't have it. Hitting '4' displays the national codes. Unfortunately, looks like most of the Kuriles are '101'. Japan proper is '100'. So taking the Kuriles won't trigger Kamikazes. EXCEPT for Paramushiro Jima. That's code '100'. That and the no-name, no-dot base hex immediately to the North of it.

I kind of wished that he had focused on Paramushiro, as that capture would have given you another potential arrow in your quiver to deal with the Allied invasions in this area. Here's hoping.

Not really. The invasion package is pretty lackluster for Japan, and at this point in the war they'd really only be worthwhile as backline garrison troops. They arrive with 20-30 Exp, IIRC.

That may be, but my comments were mostly in reference to kamikaze availability rather than the homeland defense scrub LCUs that the Japanese get when triggered. I'd still take them as backline garrison troops-the time to get them properly outfitted and (start) training is now with the enemy on the doorstep rather than when he's on Honshu or Hokkaido proper.

But kamikaze availability is dependent on distance, not country codes (unless I missed something).

Besides that, I find the usefulness of kamikazes to be dubious. Each plane used is 1 free VP for the Allies, which demands a good rate of return. You need to sink 2 LSTs when using 30 planes, for example, and even then you're not really making much progress.

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2033

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/1/2018 5:28:43 AM

Alfred

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

... kamikaze availability is dependent on distance, not country codes (unless I missed something)...

Correct but there is an important exception to the rule that it is distance which triggers kamikazes. A Chinese country code hex never triggers kamikazes, irrespective of how close it is to Saigon, Takao, or Tokyo.

Alfred

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2034

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/1/2018 11:19:20 AM

zuluhour

Posts: 5244
Joined: 1/20/2011
From: Maryland
Status: offline

reading both sides, (just thought I'd let on) as I only follow one IJ AAR at a time. You have
a real fine companion AAR to Dan's and I think you will enjoy it later.

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Post #: 2035

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/1/2018 4:15:32 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

... kamikaze availability is dependent on distance, not country codes (unless I missed something)...

Correct but there is an important exception to the rule that it is distance which triggers kamikazes. A Chinese country code hex never triggers kamikazes, irrespective of how close it is to Saigon, Takao, or Tokyo.

Alfred

Thank you both for the clarifications. Alfred: would a 101 national code within 20 hexes of Tokyo trigger kamikazes or 'emergency' LCUs? I assume that a 100 code within 20 hexes would trigger both the kamikazes as well as the LCU 'emergency' reinforcements?

For what it's worth, Ketoi Jima is 25 hexes; Paramushiro 30.

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Post #: 2036

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/2/2018 5:30:49 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

What has happened on Marcus Island?

Lackluster invasion attempt repelled.

CR pulled out the troops?

Yep. All troops removed. Well, all that didn't perish on LSTs. Did I post that yet?

Oh, yeah, post #2015, Oct 13. Got a lot of tanks and arty in the pullback, but he eventually evacuated it all.

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Post #: 2037

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/2/2018 5:34:14 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

... kamikaze availability is dependent on distance, not country codes (unless I missed something)...

Correct but there is an important exception to the rule that it is distance which triggers kamikazes. A Chinese country code hex never triggers kamikazes, irrespective of how close it is to Saigon, Takao, or Tokyo.

Alfred

Thank you both for the clarifications. Alfred: would a 101 national code within 20 hexes of Tokyo trigger kamikazes or 'emergency' LCUs? I assume that a 100 code within 20 hexes would trigger both the kamikazes as well as the LCU 'emergency' reinforcements?

For what it's worth, Ketoi Jima is 25 hexes; Paramushiro 30.

Yes, curious about that too.

I am pretty good with kamis, so far. I like mixing them with standard strike planes. I think the two together can work well and get a good rate of return.

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Post #: 2038

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/2/2018 5:54:58 PM

Alfred

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

... kamikaze availability is dependent on distance, not country codes (unless I missed something)...

Correct but there is an important exception to the rule that it is distance which triggers kamikazes. A Chinese country code hex never triggers kamikazes, irrespective of how close it is to Saigon, Takao, or Tokyo.

Alfred

Thank you both for the clarifications. Alfred: would a 101 national code within 20 hexes of Tokyo trigger kamikazes or 'emergency' LCUs? I assume that a 100 code within 20 hexes would trigger both the kamikazes as well as the LCU 'emergency' reinforcements?

For what it's worth, Ketoi Jima is 25 hexes; Paramushiro 30.

These are two separate things. The kamikaze trigger is a distance trigger whereas the emergency reinforcements trigger is a nationality code hex trigger.

1. Kamikaze.

triggered when an Allied base is 20 hexes or less from Tokyo, Saigon or Takao
triggered when the Allied base must meet certain criteria primarily in terms of size and not be on a Chinese national code hex) to qualify
not triggered by Allied LCUs located on a non base hex within range

Therefore to your specific question, the only potential triggers to the north of Hokkaido are:

Toyohara
Etorofu
Uruppu

2. Emergency Reinforcements

triggered by the presence of an Allied LCU (there is a size threshold) on any nationality code hex 100
not triggered by an Allied LCU on a code hex 101

Therefore to your specific question, yes an Allied landing on say Sapporo will trigger both kamikazes and emergency units as Sapporo is both within range of Tokyo and it is a code hex 100.

A landing on Paramushiro triggers the emergency reinforcements only because it is the only hex in the Kuriles which is code 100 but it does not trigger kamikazes because it is too far from Tokyo. Toyohara is the opposite because it is hex code 101 (hence no emergency reinforcements) but is within range of Tokyo (hence triggers kamikazes).

Alfred

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2039

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 6/2/2018 6:33:15 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

What has happened on Marcus Island?

Lackluster invasion attempt repelled.

CR pulled out the troops?

Yep. All troops removed. Well, all that didn't perish on LSTs. Did I post that yet?

Oh, yeah, post #2015, Oct 13. Got a lot of tanks and arty in the pullback, but he eventually evacuated it all.

Thanks. I wasn't sure how that had shaken out, maybe focusing on the uncertainty of whether he was coming (with more) or going (pulling out).

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Post #: 2040

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