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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

 
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/4/2018 9:01:08 PM   
ericv

 

Posts: 325
Joined: 1/21/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am amazed there wasn't further landings on either Hokkaido or Honshu.


besides overextending, it would also activate kamikazes. CR sofar skillfully stays out of that range

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2401
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/4/2018 9:13:48 PM   
Lowpe


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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am amazed there wasn't further landings on either Hokkaido or Honshu.


besides overextending, it would also activate kamikazes. CR sofar skillfully stays out of that range


Kamikazes are a vp boon for the Allies. Even when used wisely.

(in reply to ericv)
Post #: 2402
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/4/2018 10:38:55 PM   
obvert


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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am amazed there wasn't further landings on either Hokkaido or Honshu.


besides overextending, it would also activate kamikazes. CR sofar skillfully stays out of that range


He might not have prepped that far, or didn't want to waste prep on targets that were ready. Etorofu is low hanging fruit really. Almost half of the garrison has been removed.

I think he doesn't yet know how much these little breaks can help the Japanese regroup. He may also need it through, as the Allied air losses have been extensive lately.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to ericv)
Post #: 2403
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/5/2018 2:00:14 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		I think it more likely that he's patiently plodding. He has no need to rush right now.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2404
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/5/2018 2:38:56 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Allied logistics need to be secure. By taking more of Kuriles, he will not have to use DS as protector.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2405
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/5/2018 3:54:41 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Since he has Uruppu (and Sakhalin and Wakkanai and other Kuriles), I see Etorofu as rather extraneous. I was mostly referring to the lack of additional landings on Hokkaido.

From a risk/reward perspective: why risk it? I wouldn't. There's no point if you're not really on the clock. He can just wait for his units to shatter IJA resistance, which will happen sooner or later given the vast disparity in firepower in the units. It's just a matter of how long can obvert (or Japan in any game) hold the line? Will it be long enough?

I don't think he is delaying taking additional bases simply because of kamikazes. He wouldn't have landed on Hokkaido if he wanted to avoid kamikazes - he'll eventually take additional bases there, and Wakkanai is the only one that doesn't trigger kamis.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 2406
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/5/2018 9:34:56 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Since he has Uruppu (and Sakhalin and Wakkanai and other Kuriles), I see Etorofu as rather extraneous. I was mostly referring to the lack of additional landings on Hokkaido.

From a risk/reward perspective: why risk it? I wouldn't. There's no point if you're not really on the clock. He can just wait for his units to shatter IJA resistance, which will happen sooner or later given the vast disparity in firepower in the units. It's just a matter of how long can obvert (or Japan in any game) hold the line? Will it be long enough?

I don't think he is delaying taking additional bases simply because of kamikazes. He wouldn't have landed on Hokkaido if he wanted to avoid kamikazes - he'll eventually take additional bases there, and Wakkanai is the only one that doesn't trigger kamis.


This brings up an interesting question. What about Asahikawa? Will it trigger kamis?

On Etorofu, he can't imagine having another base makes it much more secure. If he's plodding it doesn't seem to be because he is aiming to land everything and push toward another base on Hokkaido. Why not land those troops at Wakkanai and go now, since clearly it will be a grind?

I think he wants the troops annihilated, the VPs, and that his air force needs a rest. It's hard to get a good count, but I think pools are low on virtually everything.

Why else would he have stopped the previously incessant sweeps?

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/5/2018 9:35:46 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2407
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 2:54:15 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		No, it would not trigger kamis because it is not within 20 hexes by sea. No coast, no trigger.

I can think of other reasons to stop sweeps besides pools being low

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2408
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 3:15:19 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline 		The Kamikazie threat is vastly exaggerated anyways. Sure, they're excellent at turning outright useless airframes into moderately effective anti-shipping platforms, but it requires a lot of effort to maximize their full offensive potential.

To be honest that effort is better directed at conventional strikes that actually have a chance of getting home.

There's a level of critical mass that's needed to make kami attacks on Allied CV's work - I've never seen it reached, and I suspected with the current Allied meta of deathstar CV fleets I suspect the number of kami aircraft that Japan would need to get to fly would be five figures at least...

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2409
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 4:18:08 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The Kamikazie threat is vastly exaggerated anyways. Sure, they're excellent at turning outright useless airframes into moderately effective anti-shipping platforms, but it requires a lot of effort to maximize their full offensive potential.

To be honest that effort is better directed at conventional strikes that actually have a chance of getting home.

There's a level of critical mass that's needed to make kami attacks on Allied CV's work - I've never seen it reached, and I suspected with the current Allied meta of deathstar CV fleets I suspect the number of kami aircraft that Japan would need to get to fly would be five figures at least...



I still maintain that there are other places kamikaze swarms can be effectively utilized, other than into the teeth of a 40 CV hex. Much as IRL, they can be intermingled effectively with conventional airstrikes. It needn't be a 'well, I threw 3,000 kamikazes solo at his CVs and they all got shredded, so the concept is borked'. It's at least worth a consideration.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2410
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:01:03 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

No, it would not trigger kamis because it is not within 20 hexes by sea. No coast, no trigger.

I can think of other reasons to stop sweeps besides pools being low


I'm considering low pools (fighters or pilots) because they haven't stopped for more than a few days for over six months. So even a 3-4 day lull is notable in this game when those sweeps have been targeting bases simply for the purpose of wearing down CAP (meaning no bombing strikes afterward).

I think due to low pool numbers and the recent addition of new 36 plane fighter groups on the CVs the Allies probably need a bit of time to reorganise.

I keep wanting to post about the Allied loss numbers vs production but I'm trying to get a handle on the range of fluctuation in the loss reports due to FOW.

Hellcats, (F6F-3) for instance, have 2,239 airframes lost in the most recent report (but it's been higher and as low as ~1,800). If that's in the ballpark it seems to be about 400 shy of the entire production run according to my estimates. (These include arrivals on CVs and in LBA groups based on numbers from our game).

F6F-3 Hellcat arrival date: 04-43 > 06-44
Total Build: 2,608
Lost: 2,239

Similarly, but even more dire if the reports are anywhere close to accurate, are the F4U-1A. So far the report is showing losses have outstripped airframes available (and I've had a few this high recently). So even if the numbers are off by 20% the pools (and numbers in groups) could be very low. Considering on July 28 losses were listed as 374, those losses outstrip production (and airframe arrival in groups) by quite a bit.

F4U-1A arrival date: 10-43 > 12/44 (continues producing 78/month, (468 more) and arriving until 06/45)
Total Build: 1173
Lost: 1,544

July 28 losses: 374

For the F4U-1D, arriving in Sept 44, the losses have been high but not as bad. It's been heavily used for sweeps, and seems to have about 425 available total. This is a lot but groups may not be completely fleshed out to max size since the arrivals are 36 plane groups half full on arrival.

F4U-1D
Total Build: 911 (to Jan 15, 1945 @ 158/month. This includes the arrival of the extra fighter groups on USN CVs in January)
Lost: 486

The NZ F4U-1D shows 196 losses. This is nearly the entire production run so far.

F4U-1D
Total Build: 212 (from 5/44 to Jan 15, 1945 @ 25/month)
Lost: 196

When you consider the Marines also need to use these airframes, and groups are getting bigger, there could be some constraints around now.

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/6/2018 6:19:28 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2411
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:03:15 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I still maintain that there are other places kamikaze swarms can be effectively utilized, other than into the teeth of a 40 CV hex. Much as IRL, they can be intermingled effectively with conventional airstrikes. It needn't be a 'well, I threw 3,000 kamikazes solo at his CVs and they all got shredded, so the concept is borked'. It's at least worth a consideration.


In the cases you advocate using kamikazes, it is a sad fact that normal Japanese bombers (Judy, Jill, Peggy T, Frances, LillyIIb are almost always much better choices than a kamikaze.

Kamikazes allow Army planes an big anti-ship platform, but in general they are a victory point boon for the Allies. Much like midgets...



(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2412
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:05:22 PM   
Lokasenna


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Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I still maintain that there are other places kamikaze swarms can be effectively utilized, other than into the teeth of a 40 CV hex. Much as IRL, they can be intermingled effectively with conventional airstrikes. It needn't be a 'well, I threw 3,000 kamikazes solo at his CVs and they all got shredded, so the concept is borked'. It's at least worth a consideration.


In the cases you advocate using kamikazes, it is a sad fact that normal Japanese bombers (Judy, Jill, Peggy T, Frances, LillyIIb are almost always much better choices than a kamikaze.

Kamikazes allow Army planes an big anti-ship platform, but in general they are a victory point boon for the Allies. Much like midgets...





And yet I still use midgets... because they're only a 4VP chit tossed into the fire, vs. a 40+ plane unit.

Kamikazes may be useful, but their wholesale use is not advisable IMO.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2413
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:08:16 PM   
Lowpe


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[quote

And yet I still use midgets..
[/quote]

And I do too, and I use kamikazes.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2414
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:09:53 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Kamikazes allow Army planes an big anti-ship platform, but in general they are a victory point boon for the Allies. Much like midgets...


Your opinion based upon your gameplay uses. Your experiences are not hard coded, so it is quite possible for a resourceful Japanese player to improve upon them. I would opt for trying them judiciously.

As for midgets, I've had smashing success with them several times. Quite worth their judicious use in my opinion. Your (lack of) success may vary, of course.

_____________________________


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2415
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:16:28 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Kamikazes allow Army planes an big anti-ship platform, but in general they are a victory point boon for the Allies. Much like midgets...


Your opinion based upon your gameplay uses. Your experiences are not hard coded, so it is quite possible for a resourceful Japanese player to improve upon them. I would opt for trying them judiciously.

As for midgets, I've had smashing success with them several times. Quite worth their judicious use in my opinion. Your (lack of) success may vary, of course.


Alright, I am obviously not clearly communicating because we basically agree.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2416
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/6/2018 6:51:02 PM   
ericv

 

Posts: 325
Joined: 1/21/2012
Status: offline 		I would take these enemy plane losses with a grain of salt. From my meagre experience so far in testing, months on end gametime against myself mostly, they are seldom accurate, even when taking averaging over multiple results into consideration.

The F41A production checks out with your numberm but there are also 9 squadrons arriving with the plane, a total of 135 extra aircraft, which makes a total of around 1300, early january 1945. This particular pool could very well be near the bottom.




(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2417
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/7/2018 8:44:29 AM   
Veloz


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Joined: 8/27/2018
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Kamikazes allow Army planes an big anti-ship platform, but in general they are a victory point boon for the Allies. Much like midgets...




As for midgets, I've had smashing success with them several times. Quite worth their judicious use in my opinion. Your (lack of) success may vary, of course.


agree is not good forming Kamikazes; plus de best are Reppus; and lot better defending japan Cv than using for a 100 kg and the pilot; never good kamikazes

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2418
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/7/2018 1:24:37 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv

I would take these enemy plane losses with a grain of salt. From my meagre experience so far in testing, months on end gametime against myself mostly, they are seldom accurate, even when taking averaging over multiple results into consideration.

The F41A production checks out with your numberm but there are also 9 squadrons arriving with the plane, a total of 135 extra aircraft, which makes a total of around 1300, early january 1945. This particular pool could very well be near the bottom.



I'm certain they're not accurate. They do tell some story though, and I can confirm heavy losses through day by day loss reports and the animations I watch. The Allies are losing a lot of planes, and it's taking a toll.

By looking at these reports I am trying to see how the pattern is developing, and I can see the range of FOW. I'm sure it's somewhat random, but within parameters. It's never been farther than 400-500 losses in either direction (the Hellcats I'm referring to, as they're the highest losses reported) so I'm betting they're somewhere in the middle.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to ericv)
Post #: 2419
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/9/2018 1:41:44 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Some 'music' to soothe your soul on a rough morning, Obvert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lu4EE05owDI

_____________________________


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Post #: 2420
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/9/2018 7:27:56 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 12-14, 1945

Not much happening on the 12th, but unloading more troops continues at Etorofu, and the bombardments and aerial strikes pile on. Interestingly, I'm seeing a big reduction in effectiveness of the 4Es on several turns lately. I only point it out now because it seems like a bit of a trend. Hopefully experienced pilots are getting scarce.

On the 13th the Allies throw in a mini-DA at Etorofu, which is sadly kind of effective.

On the 14th the troops are worn down, but still put up a decent fight, only letting the Allies get a 1:2. The forts are lowered to 5 though. This won't be a long one.

Sweeps come at Bangkok on the day as well, ad the training groups down here do extremely well. They get 2:3 against some of the allies' best, and these are 40exp and 45 skill pilots!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 12, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on TF, near Paramushiro-jima at 137,47

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 9

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
APD T-8, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
E Shinnan

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x SB2C-3 Helldiver bombing from 8000 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring APD T-8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Etorofu , at 128,52

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 65 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 3
Liberator GR.VI x 3
B-24J Liberator x 17
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 16
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 20

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 7 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 9 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 7000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 25338 troops, 59 guns, 56 vehicles, Assault Value = 635

Defending force 70158 troops, 834 guns, 1582 vehicles, Assault Value = 2028

Japanese ground losses:
110 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
34 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
10th Exped.Force
61st Division
Ichiki Det.
3rd Base Force
2nd RF Gun Battalion
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
5th Air Division
31st Army
67th Construction Battalion
37th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
96th Infantry Division
716th Tank Battalion
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
775th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st Marine Division
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
12th NZ Brigade
31st Infantry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
X Corps Artillery
165th Field Artillery Battalion
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
XI US Corps
IX Corps Artillery

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 13, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 33250 troops, 512 guns, 743 vehicles, Assault Value = 2029

Defending force 32573 troops, 87 guns, 152 vehicles, Assault Value = 606

Allied adjusted assault: 280

Japanese adjusted defense: 2050

Allied assault odds: 1 to 7 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
139 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Assaulting units:
775th Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
716th Tank Battalion
96th Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
12th NZ Brigade
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
XI US Corps
154th FA Bn
X Corps Artillery
165th Field Artillery Battalion
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
61st Division
10th Exped.Force
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
Ichiki Det.
31st Army
3rd Base Force
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd RF Gun Battalion
67th Construction Battalion
5th Air Division
37th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 14, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Naval bombardment of Etorofu at 128,52 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-56 Thalia: 2 damaged
Ki-56 Thalia: 1 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 2 damaged

32 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Missouri
BB Iowa
CA Pensacola
CL Raleigh
DD Stevens
DD Rowe
DD Knapp, Shell hits 1
DD Kidd
DD Erben
DD Eaton
DD Cogswell
DMS Hobson

Japanese ground losses:
250 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 28 (11 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Airbase hits 17
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 56
Port hits 13

OS2U-3 Kingfisher acting as spotter for BB Missouri

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 32
A6M5b Zero x 18
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 29
Ki-84a Frank x 15

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 25
A6M5b Zero x 15
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 25
Ki-84a Frank x 12

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 70 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 20
A6M5b Zero x 12
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 21
Ki-84a Frank x 9

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt II x 12
P-51B Mustang x 9
P-51D Mustang x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 5 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Thunderbolt II: 1 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Thunderbolt II sweeping at 20000 feet *
9 x P-51B Mustang sweeping at 20000 feet *
10 x P-51D Mustang sweeping at 20000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 66156 troops, 827 guns, 1436 vehicles, Assault Value = 2042

Defending force 31499 troops, 83 guns, 135 vehicles, Assault Value = 589

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5

Allied adjusted assault: 1765

Japanese adjusted defense: 2299

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3559 casualties reported
Squads: 55 destroyed, 93 disabled
Non Combat: 16 destroyed, 130 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 17 (1 destroyed, 16 disabled)
Vehicles lost 63 (11 destroyed, 52 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2761 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 233 disabled
Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 60 destroyed, 51 disabled
Guns lost 30 (3 destroyed, 27 disabled)
Vehicles lost 105 (28 destroyed, 77 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
1st Marine Division
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
31st Infantry Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
716th Tank Battalion
12th NZ Brigade
96th Infantry Division
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
775th Tank Battalion
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
X Corps Artillery
XI US Corps
165th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
10th Exped.Force
61st Division
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
Ichiki Det.
31st Army
2nd RF Gun Battalion
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
5th Air Division
3rd Base Force
67th Construction Battalion
37th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/11/2018 2:57:08 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2421
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/11/2018 3:28:53 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 15, 1945

Things were intense over Etorofu on the 15th as the usual waves of Allied bombers were met by a large LR CAP. The sweeps came in first from the Japanese to clear the Ketoi CAP, and they got about 1:1 thanks to the Ki-83 finally getting some results. Looks like some of this was CV bleeding CAP.

The LR CAP was set up for hitting bombers, with lots of medium layered bands, and when the first Corsair sweep decimated the lower planes, I thought it was going to be a long day. Then a flight of 30 something 2E came rolling in unescorted. Then another of 40 something. Then the straggling 8-10 groups. The CAP did the job tearing into the Venturas and Mitchells.

In the afternoon the 4Es came and the escorts got them through but with heavy losses. Nearly an entire group of Hellcats was shot down and a good 15 or so Mustangs.

On the day the Allies lose nearly 140 air frames to 50 for the Japanese, and some 5-7 of those were transports. A very positive day!

In the mountains the IJA had two successful attacks that resulted in unexpectedly even losses. I think the Chinese will crumble soon though with no supply and the losses will be big. In a few weeks the road to Chengt should be cleared and secured.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 15, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 39,440 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84b Frank x 32

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 14
P-38L Lightning x 10
F4U-1D Corsair x 35
F6F-5 Hellcat x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84b Frank: 9 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 41

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 8
P-38L Lightning x 5
F4U-1D Corsair x 23
F6F-5 Hellcat x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 2 destroyed
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 4 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
20 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Etorofu , at 128,52

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 8
N1K5-J George x 18
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 7
Ki-83 x 19
Ki-84b Frank x 10
Ki-84r Frank x 19

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 128,52 (Etorofu)

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 7
N1K5-J George x 16
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 4
Ki-83 x 18
Ki-84r Frank x 10

Allied aircraft
B-25H Mitchell x 12
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 10
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25H Mitchell: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 6 destroyed
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 7000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 35th Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 128,52 (Etorofu)

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 73 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 11
Ki-83 x 12
Ki-84r Frank x 4

Allied aircraft
PV-1 Ventura x 39

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PV-1 Ventura: 15 destroyed, 9 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 7000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 3rd Base Force, at 128,52 (Etorofu)

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 53 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-83 x 6
Ki-84r Frank x 1

Allied aircraft
PV-1 Ventura x 22

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PV-1 Ventura: 4 destroyed, 7 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 7000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 35th Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 128,52 (Etorofu)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 6
N1K5-J George x 15
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 6
Ki-83 x 17
Ki-84b Frank x 8
Ki-84r Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 16
F6F-5 Hellcat x 26
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38J Lightning: 3 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 12 destroyed
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 8 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 8000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 3rd Base Force, at 128,52 (Etorofu)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 3
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 5
Ki-83 x 16
Ki-84b Frank x 3
Ki-84r Frank x 9

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 14

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 destroyed, 12 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 61st Division, at 128,52 (Etorofu)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 58 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 1
N1K5-J George x 2
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 2
Ki-83 x 6
Ki-84r Frank x 2

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 21
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 10 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 8000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 21554 troops, 52 guns, 48 vehicles, Assault Value = 395

Defending force 71832 troops, 899 guns, 1678 vehicles, Assault Value = 1902

Japanese ground losses:
228 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
61st Division
10th Exped.Force
Ichiki Det.
31st Army
3rd Base Force
5th Air Division
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd RF Gun Battalion
67th Construction Battalion
37th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
12th NZ Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
96th Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
716th Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
3rd Motor Brigade
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
X Corps Artillery
154th FA Bn
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI US Corps
165th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 41702 troops, 264 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 1291

Defending force 13184 troops, 24 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 503

Japanese adjusted assault: 872

Allied adjusted defense: 430

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1604 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 130 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1324 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 143 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
65th Division
58th Division
51st Division

Defending units:
51st Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
83rd Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 4608 troops, 148 guns, 273 vehicles, Assault Value = 1898

Defending force 28242 troops, 83 guns, 135 vehicles, Assault Value = 383

Allied adjusted assault: 80

Japanese adjusted defense: 1660

Allied assault odds: 1 to 20 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
194 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
716th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
12th NZ Brigade
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st Marine Division
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
96th Infantry Division
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
31st Infantry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
165th Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI US Corps
X Corps Artillery
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
10th Exped.Force
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
61st Division
Ichiki Det.
3rd Base Force
5th Air Division
67th Construction Battalion
31st Army
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd RF Gun Battalion
37th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 73,42 (near Chengtu)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14892 troops, 101 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 461

Defending force 2054 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 98

Japanese adjusted assault: 336

Allied adjusted defense: 88

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
498 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 41 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

Allied ground losses:
477 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 35 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
104th/A Division
35th/B Division
104th/B Division
21st AA Regiment

Defending units:
69th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2422
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/12/2018 8:36:50 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 16, 1945

The Allies crack Etorofu and it’ll only be a matter of a few more attacks there now. The forts go to 4 and the losses mount. Still, this op is just a troop VP grab, worthy for a few hundred extra points, but it has given the Japanese a needed reorganisation break, a few chances to hit bombing strikes with heavy Allied losses, and will provide a closer sweeping target soon.

I haven’t reported much about the Burma region lately, but all is still bottled up there and the Allies seem content with the situation on the ground. I’ll begin removing key units and replacing them with newly arrived divisions, beginning with the 2nd tank division.

In the air down there the Allies still sweep daily with 150-200 fighters over Pegu, usually, then bomb with a few understrength bomber groups. Flak is taking it’s toll continually, and today, even though the strikes came in at 18k, 5-7 bombers were shot down there. Not an unusual day. The constant bleed can’t be good for Allied pools or pilots strength, and isn’t reducing our supply or battle worthiness at all. Keep it coming.

In the Chinese mountains the IJA shocks and gets some decent damage on the Chinese in two locations. The 79:1 assault odds fail to push back the Chinese near Chengtu, but there aren’t many of them, so a few more turns of this should do the trick. Near Kunming the 27:1 assault does do a bit more damage, but also fails to push back these units. The war of attrition definitely favours the better, bigger, more experienced and supplied Japanese here, so tomorrow more of the same.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 16, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on 1st Tank Division, at 56,53 , near Pegu

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Allied aircraft
Wellington B.X x 3
B-17E Fortress x 3
B-25J11 Mitchell x 7

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington B.X: 2 damaged
Wellington B.X: 1 destroyed by flak
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed by flak
B-25J11 Mitchell: 2 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x Wellington B.X bombing from 18000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
5 x B-25J11 Mitchell bombing from 18000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 18000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
2 x B-25J11 Mitchell bombing from 18000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

Also attacking 14th Division ...
Also attacking 2nd Tank Division ...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 41733 troops, 368 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 1107

Defending force 12254 troops, 24 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 389

Japanese adjusted assault: 1260

Allied adjusted defense: 46

Japanese assault odds: 27 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1758 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 151 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1411 casualties reported
Squads: 61 destroyed, 199 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Assaulting units:
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
58th Division
65th Division
51st Division
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps
51st Chinese Corps
83rd Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 69590 troops, 900 guns, 1684 vehicles, Assault Value = 1984

Defending force 28160 troops, 84 guns, 137 vehicles, Assault Value = 366

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 2536

Japanese adjusted defense: 484

Allied assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4589 casualties reported
Squads: 168 destroyed, 72 disabled
Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 171 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 36 (28 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 49 (7 destroyed, 42 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
692 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 37 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 37 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Guns lost 9 (2 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Assaulting units:
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
775th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
96th Infantry Division
1st Marine Division
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
31st Infantry Division
12th NZ Brigade
716th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
X Corps Artillery
XI US Corps
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
165th Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
Ichiki Det.
61st Division
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
10th Exped.Force /2
3rd Base Force
5th Air Division
31st Army
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
67th Construction Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
37th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 73,42 (near Chengtu)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 14581 troops, 101 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 427

Defending force 1720 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 54

Japanese adjusted assault: 558

Allied adjusted defense: 7

Japanese assault odds: 79 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
466 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled

Allied ground losses:
741 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 36 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
35th/B Division
104th/A Division
104th/B Division
21st AA Regiment

Defending units:
69th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I spotted today a group of ships 4-5 hexes SE of Ketoi-Jima, at least some of which reported fighters/bombers and showed as CV. i don’t see the Allied surface or CV fleet at Toyohara, Shikuka or any of the other nearby bases. Search isn’t seeing them. Is the DS moving away, vectoring around, or splitting up?

Sadagashima and the other two islands of the Japan Sea have been beefed up in the past week after the DS incursion near Sapporo and resulting surface battles. Sado has forts 6 and 800 AV of two rebuilding divisions and two brigades. I can also fly restricted troops to these so if anything shows in this direction I’ll fire up the Tabbys and send everything.

To the South the Iwo Jima and Chichi Jima need some reinforcements, and I will be sending another 100AV to each as a precaution in case this is an end around move.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2423
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/12/2018 8:41:19 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 17, 1945

On the 17th Etorofu falls. The quickest of the islands to succumb after half of the garrison was removed to defend Hokkaido. This opens up the same line of questioning I began a few weeks ago; where will the Allies go next?

Up in the Chinese mountains the unit near Chengtu is destroyed and more losses mount for the three Corps near Kunming. I see movement from friends nearby, either a reinforcement or a preemptive retreat. We’ll see.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 17, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36345 troops, 352 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 975

Defending force 10559 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 214

Japanese adjusted assault: 487

Allied adjusted defense: 25

Japanese assault odds: 19 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
518 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Allied ground losses:
841 casualties reported
Squads: 32 destroyed, 62 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
58th Division
65th Division
51st Division
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
51st Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
83rd Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 47541 troops, 632 guns, 1163 vehicles, Assault Value = 1964

Defending force 24488 troops, 69 guns, 134 vehicles, Assault Value = 227

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Allied adjusted assault: 1055

Japanese adjusted defense: 142

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Etorofu !!!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 2 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3928 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 191 disabled
Non Combat: 149 destroyed, 63 disabled
Engineers: 50 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 38 (34 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 93 (93 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
355 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 41 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Assaulting units:
1st Regiment
96th Infantry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
716th Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
31st Infantry Division
3rd Motor Brigade
12th NZ Brigade
1st Marine Division
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
154th FA Bn
X Corps Artillery
XI US Corps
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
165th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
61st Division
44th Ind.Mixed Brigade
Ichiki Det.
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
10th Exped.Force /2
37th JAAF AF Bn
3rd Base Force
67th Construction Battalion
5th Air Div /1
2nd RF Gun Bn /1
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
31st Army /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 73,42 (near Chengtu)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14239 troops, 101 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 392

Defending force 1143 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 374

Allied adjusted defense: 4

Japanese assault odds: 93 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), disruption(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
572 casualties reported
Squads: 45 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 62 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
35th/B Division
104th/A Division
104th/B Division
21st AA Regiment

Defending units:
69th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The next day those ships are gone, and nothing of vast size and scope is spotted nearby. Interesting.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/13/2018 8:04:48 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2424
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/13/2018 8:55:22 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 18, 1945

On the 18th the Allies again try sweeps against the training groups at Bangkok. This time results are even better for the defenders as the Allies have to operate at extended range and ops losses increase. The Japanese group here are all obsolete planes with inexperienced pilots except for a core of aces in the Frank 'a" group to fly top CAP.

In A to A kills on the day the Allies lose 30 and the Japanese 38. I'll take that.

Up in the mountains the IJA continues to push and the Chinese do crumble a bit more as the attack gets a 22:1. It seems these troops will fight to the last man and not retreat, which is fine, as they'll all be VPs soon.

Still no sign of the Allied CVs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 18, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 11
A6M5b Zero x 15
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 23
Ki-84a Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt II x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 7
A6M5b Zero x 15
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 22
Ki-84a Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 5
A6M5b Zero x 15
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 14
Ki-84a Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 3
A6M5b Zero x 9
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 13

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 3
A6M5b Zero x 9
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 9
Ki-84a Frank x 13

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 3 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36195 troops, 352 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 962

Defending force 9809 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 166

Japanese adjusted assault: 435

Allied adjusted defense: 19

Japanese assault odds: 22 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
242 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1088 casualties reported
Squads: 45 destroyed, 40 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Assaulting units:
65th Division
58th Division
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
51st Division
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps
83rd Chinese Corps
51st Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 7749 troops, 186 guns, 156 vehicles, Assault Value = 1938

Defending force 19929 troops, 44 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 76

Allied adjusted assault: 125

Japanese adjusted defense: 127

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
139 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
39 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Assaulting units:
12th NZ Brigade
31st Infantry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
1st Marine Division
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
1st Regiment
96th Infantry Division
716th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
165th Field Artillery Battalion
X Corps Artillery
154th FA Bn
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI US Corps
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
61st Division
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
44th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
Ichiki Det. /1
37th JAAF AF Bn
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
3rd Base Force
5th Air Div /1
10th Exped.Force /2
67th Construction Battalion
31st Army /2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2425
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/13/2018 9:32:23 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		A look at the info screens about a month apart here shows the increase in Allied VP gain in recent campaigns taking Wakkanai and Etorofu. This recent grab only took about a week, so that is worrying. Those troops will now need some time to prep though, so the effects might be felt much longer, since they could have been prepped for another target weeks or a month ago.

The Allied gains center in areas of troops, ships and base points. The air losses are nearly even at ~2,000 each.

Allies: 2,223
Japan: 2,132

By my calculations the Allies are making the following amounts of fighter airframes/month. Assuming 60-70% of these are fighter losses, his pools are diminishing. Below are the amounts of all top tier fighters he's been using and losing that are made per month for reference.

(A few more come in with groups, as with the carrier resizing and group additions last month, but each of those groups seem only to have 16 fighters in them and require another 16 to fill out to 32).

RAF/RAAF/RNZAF: 178/month
USN/USMC: 416/month
USAAF: 255/month
--------------------------------

TOTAL: 849/month




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/14/2018 11:17:41 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2426
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/17/2018 3:09:34 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 19, 1945

The Allies are turning to bombing the other Kuriles air bases now as the Etorofu campaign winds down. Every day the bombers go over there instead of at the industry in range is a good day.

It'll also be tough to keep these bases closed as each one has 200-250 engineer equivalents and decent supply. It is interesting that this been kind of a lull, and it makes we wonder if there is another vector about to open for the Allies. The DEI is available, as is the PI if he wants to really push deep. I've got deep search installed and active now around the whole perimeter to get a glimpse of anything coming.

A few B-29-1 tried their luck at Fukuyama and didn't fare well, with 3 of 6 downed on the night by NF and flak.

Up in China the IJA continues to wreak havoc on forward Chinese units out of supply, and should destroy these within a few days. Looks like the remainder on the Chengdu road are now definitely trying to flee back into the mountains. China is about to get the major

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 19, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Fukuyama , at 107,58

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 21 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 5
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 7000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
332 Ku S-3 with J1N1-Sa Irving (5 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 2000 , scrambling fighters to 9000.
Raid is overhead
53rd Sentai/A with Ki-45 KAId Nick (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 5000.
Raid is overhead

Some CAP have air radar

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Fukuyama , at 107,58

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 2
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 2

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 7000 feet
Port Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
332 Ku S-3 with J1N1-Sa Irving (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 2000 , scrambling fighters to 7000.
Raid is overhead
53rd Sentai/A with Ki-45 KAId Nick (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters to 7000.
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Shimushiri-jima , at 132,51

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 70 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 10
PV-1 Ventura x 21

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PV-1 Ventura: 7 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
6 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Runway hits 12

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 6000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Shimushiri-jima , at 132,51

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25H Mitchell x 14
P-38L Lightning x 10

Allied aircraft losses
B-25H Mitchell: 4 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-25H Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40245 troops, 368 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 950

Defending force 8973 troops, 20 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 115

Japanese adjusted assault: 674

Allied adjusted defense: 13

Japanese assault odds: 51 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
191 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2642 casualties reported
Squads: 68 destroyed, 97 disabled
Non Combat: 94 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Units destroyed 2

Assaulting units:
58th Division
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
65th Division
51st Division
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps
51st Chinese Corps
83rd Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 37793 troops, 582 guns, 957 vehicles, Assault Value = 1979

Defending force 19945 troops, 44 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 69

Allied adjusted assault: 754

Japanese adjusted defense: 151

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1544 casualties reported
Squads: 29 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 58 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
150 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Assaulting units:
1st Regiment
716th Tank Battalion
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
3rd Motor Brigade
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
31st Infantry Division
12th NZ Brigade
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
96th Infantry Division
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
XI US Corps
X Corps Artillery
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
165th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
61st Division
44th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
Ichiki Det. /1
67th Construction Battalion
10th Exped.Force /2
37th JAAF AF Bn
5th Air Div /1
3rd Base Force
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
31st Army /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A few advance models are being sent to KB decks for testing the assembly lines ramp up for this final major late war addition to the Japanese arsenal. About 150/month will be made.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2427
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/19/2018 10:48:31 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 20, 1945

On the 20th the Allies continue to hit the Kuriles, but can't close Onneketon-Jima. The strikes are not well escorted and sweeps aren't coming ahead in numbers. Ripe for another LR CAP.

Tried some sweeps that got only even numbers against a small CAP at Urrupa.

The Japanese are nearly gone at Etorofu.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 20, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 41,370 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 45

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 10
F4U-1D Corsair x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 39370 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Uruppu-jima , at 130,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 23 NM, estimated altitude 41,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 40

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 2
F4U-1D Corsair x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
38 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Onnekotan-jima , at 136,48

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 63 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 15

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 11 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 11

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40203 troops, 368 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 944

Defending force 6954 troops, 19 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 23

Japanese adjusted assault: 772

Allied adjusted defense: 10

Japanese assault odds: 77 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
39 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
713 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Assaulting units:
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
65th Division
58th Division
51st Division
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 65128 troops, 890 guns, 1801 vehicles, Assault Value = 2006

Defending force 18899 troops, 42 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 44

Allied adjusted assault: 1338

Japanese adjusted defense: 55

Allied assault odds: 24 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3883 casualties reported
Squads: 141 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 65 destroyed, 195 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 12 (12 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 38 (22 destroyed, 16 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
162 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Assaulting units:
775th Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st Marine Division
96th Infantry Division
3rd Motor Brigade
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
31st Infantry Division
1st Regiment
12th NZ Brigade
716th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
XI US Corps
165th Field Artillery Battalion
X Corps Artillery
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
61st Division
44th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
67th Construction Battalion
37th JAAF AF Bn
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
10th Exped.Force /2
3rd Base Force
Ichiki Det. /1
5th Air Div /1
31st Army /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment Wiped Out at Etorofu by attrition!!!

67th Construction Battalion Wiped Out at Etorofu by attrition!!!

37th JAAF AF Bn Wiped Out at Etorofu by attrition!!!

Japanese Unit(s) surrounded at Etorofu

Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Etorofu by attrition!!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2428
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/19/2018 10:57:30 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 21-23, 1945

More of the same on the 21st through the 23rd. Just bombing airfields and working through the remaining troops at Etorofu while I try small sweeps and work on clearing the mountains roads in China.

Finally crack 70k VPs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 21, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Etorofu , at 128,52

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 25 NM, estimated altitude 42,370 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 33

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 5
F4U-1D Corsair x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 5 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 39370 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40287 troops, 368 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 952

Defending force 6431 troops, 19 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 6

Japanese adjusted assault: 535

Allied adjusted defense: 4

Japanese assault odds: 133 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), disruption(-)
fatigue(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Allied ground losses:
1329 casualties reported
Squads: 159 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 13 (13 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
65th Division
58th Division
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
51st Division
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Etorofu , at 128,52

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 42,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 26

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 2
F4U-1D Corsair x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 22, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40418 troops, 368 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 962

Defending force 4961 troops, 7 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4

Japanese adjusted assault: 339

Allied adjusted defense: 4

Japanese assault odds: 84 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Allied ground losses:
794 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (6 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
65th Division
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
58th Division
51st Division
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 22, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,44 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40598 troops, 368 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 981

Defending force 4348 troops, 1 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 837

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 837 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), disruption(-)
fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
51 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
5782 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 326 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
58th Division
65th Division
11th Ind.Infantry Brigade
51st Division
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
80th Chinese Corps
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/19/2018 10:59:32 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2429
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 9/21/2018 8:11:36 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Jan 24-25, 1945

I tried a CAP trap that only moderately worked on the 24th. I set fighters to bleed from Onneketon to cover that base or Shasukotan, and that is where the bombers came. A LR CAP might have been better tactically, but the bleed would cover both bases better since I didn't know which would be bombed. I also had a LR CAP from Hokkaido on Shimushiri.

The sweeps led and reduced the CAP enough so that only a few faced the later round of unescorted bombers. Still got to a few, but losses turn out about even on the day.

On the 25th the Allies show their hand again, and I breathe another sigh of relief. A big bombardment and following invasion lands two divisions on Shimushiri. More will follow in the usual daily landings I'm sure, and this base won't last longer than Etorofu as I've stripped most of it to Hokkaido already. It will give enough time to get the Sam into production and beginning to fill out groups, and the pools of most IJAAF fighters to reach triple figures.

Japanese production is zinging along now and I'm able to fully fill all groups and distribute them back around the industrial centres on Honshu. Sadogasima is working toward forts 7 and has now 1100AV so that base is feeling more secure. All of the Northern Honshu bases are at least forts 6, and the middle Honshu bases are reaching level 5. A few in Western Honshu are still below level 5 and building quickly.

Soon a huge influx of troops will arrive in the Home Islands. The longer it takes to either invade or get a serious strat bombing campaign going, the more supply and devices the Japanese will have to fight with for the duration. The arrival of the Sam in the next few days will make the KB stronger but also add a service 2 improved fighter to Home Island defenses and begin to phase out the A6M series entirely (but that will take a while).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 24, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Shasukotan , at 135,49

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 16
N1K2-J George x 15
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 18

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 2 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shasukotan , at 135,49

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 10
N1K2-J George x 11
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 15

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 16
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 14
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
PBJ-1D Mitchell: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 4 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 5

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 8000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shasukotan , at 135,49

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 62 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 4
N1K2-J George x 7
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 10

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 15
PV-1 Ventura x 31

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 2 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
PV-1 Ventura: 2 destroyed, 8 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 8000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shasukotan , at 135,49

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 1
N1K2-J George x 5
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 6

Allied aircraft
PV-1 Ventura x 17

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 8000 feet *
Ground Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shasukotan , at 135,49

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 3
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 2

Allied aircraft
PV-1 Ventura x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 8000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 65800 troops, 898 guns, 1806 vehicles, Assault Value = 2080

Defending force 5816 troops, 13 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 5

Allied adjusted assault: 932

Japanese adjusted defense: 4

Allied assault odds: 233 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2454 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 234 destroyed, 69 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (10 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
31st Infantry Division
12th NZ Brigade
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
96th Infantry Division
1st Marine Division
775th Tank Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
716th Tank Battalion
1st Regiment
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
X Corps Artillery
XI US Corps
165th Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
35th Ind.Mixed Bde /2
3rd Base Force
61st Div /1
44th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
31st Army /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japanese Unit(s) surrounded at Etorofu

Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Etorofu by attrition!!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 25, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Naval bombardment of Shimushiri-jima at 132,51 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 1 damaged

19 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
ACM Toshi Maru #3, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
BB Wisconsin
CA Cornwall, Shell hits 4
CL Cleveland
CLAA Flint
DD Clark
DD Blue
DD Endicott
DD Meredith
DD Nicholson
DD John Hood
DD Bache
DD Charles Ausburne

Japanese ground losses:
217 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 16 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 5 (4 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (4 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Airbase hits 14
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 48
Port hits 16
Port supply hits 5

BB Wisconsin firing at Shimushiri-jima
CA Cornwall firing at 6th Base Force

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shimushiri-jima , at 132,51

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 23 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 10
Ki-83 x 13

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt II x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Thunderbolt II: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
L2D2 Tabby: 10 destroyed on ground
Ki-46-III Dinah: 1 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 6 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 18
Airbase supply hits 7
Runway hits 44

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet
Airfield Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb
2 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet
Airfield Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

TF 696 troops unloading over beach at Shimushiri-jima, 132,51

Allied ground losses:
914 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 125 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 140 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 74 (1 destroyed, 73 disabled)
Vehicles lost 66 (0 destroyed, 66 disabled)

2pdr AT Gun damaged beyond repair during unload of 8th Australian Div /4
13 troops of a USMC Rifle Squad 44 lost in surf during unload of 4th Marine Div

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 11775 troops, 93 guns, 86 vehicles, Assault Value = 341

Defending force 32566 troops, 432 guns, 647 vehicles, Assault Value = 897

Japanese ground losses:
53 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
44 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
10th Ind.Infantry Brigade
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
303rd Ind.Infantry Battalion
12th Ind.Mixed Regiment
46th Div /1
217th Naval Construction Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
205th Naval Construction Battalion
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
49th Const Co
25th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
6th Base Force

Defending units:
4th Marine Division
706th Tank Battalion
8th Australian Division
2nd Medium Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Etorofu (128,52)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 65887 troops, 898 guns, 1808 vehicles, Assault Value = 2096

Defending force 2975 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2

Allied adjusted assault: 1432

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 1432 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3948 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 443 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (14 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
3rd Motor Brigade
31st Infantry Division
96th Infantry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /12
716th Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
1st Regiment
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
775th Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
12th NZ Brigade
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Bn /10
XI US Corps
154th FA Bn
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
X Corps Artillery
165th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

Defending units:
3rd Base Force
61st Div /1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Etorofu by attrition!!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2430
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