RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 4:13:20 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Feb 7, 1945

Whether it's turn fatigue, as mind_messing mentions, or simply fortunate targeting, the sweeps on the 6th find a vulnerable CAP at Wakkanai and take advantage. The Allies are set high and low with nothing between, and the divers have a field day. The totals are good all types having success.

A stray Allied strike also gets squashed going for some APDs at Kushiro, and a slew of Hellcats and Avengers get nailed. This is definitely a turn fatigue/missed setting kind of situation.

The Allied fleet is now on the move though, and sits one hex off of Bihoro. I know that Bihoro is not the target though. I have two interesting clues to let me know why which I'll talk about soon.

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 7, 1945
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Sub attack near Kushiro at 123,53

Japanese Ships
APD T-13
APD T-9

Allied Ships
SS Hoe, hits 3

SS Hoe launches 6 torpedoes at APD T-13
Hoe bottoming out ....

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Night Naval bombardment of Bihoro at 123,51 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

51 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
CL Kenya, Shell hits 1
CL Ceylon
DD Penn
DD Pathfinder
DD Thracian

Japanese ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

CL Kenya firing at 7th Base Force
7th Base Force firing at CL Kenya

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TF 323 encounters mine field at Bihoro (123,51) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

14 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
YMS-147, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
YMS-130, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

7th Base Force firing at YMS-147
YMS-147 firing at 7th Base Force

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TF 406 encounters mine field at Bihoro (123,51) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

12 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
YMS-86, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
YMS-219, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
YMS-274, Shell hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage

7th Base Force firing at YMS-86

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 741 encounters mine field at Bihoro (123,51) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

13 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
AM Bayfield, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage

7th Base Force firing at AM Bayfield
8 mines cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 23 NM, estimated altitude 30,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 21

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 17
P-40K Warhawk x 18
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 50
P-51D Mustang x 39

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 1 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed

CAP engaged:
No.896 Sqn FAA with Spitfire VIII (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 6 scrambling)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 6 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 24000 and 28000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 12 minutes
3rd ACG/3rd FS (C) with P-51D Mustang (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 7 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 36000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 8 minutes
3rd ACG/4th FS (C) with P-51D Mustang (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 10 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
343rd FG/18th FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 7 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 42000 , scrambling fighters between 23000 and 42000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
343rd FG/344th FS with P-47D25 Thunderbolt (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 7 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 42000 , scrambling fighters between 29000 and 42000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 32 minutes
475th FG/433rd FS with P-51D Mustang (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 14 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes
508th FG/467th FS with P-40K Warhawk (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 29000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 27

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 12
P-40K Warhawk x 11
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 49
P-51D Mustang x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 29000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 44,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 30

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 11
P-40K Warhawk x 6
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 45
P-51D Mustang x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 3 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 42,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 46

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 4
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 39
P-51D Mustang x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 10 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 142 NM, estimated altitude 30,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 30

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 1
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 17
P-51D Mustang x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 6 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 5 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x N1K5-J George sweeping at 29000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikotan , at 125,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 35

Japanese aircraft losses
L2D2 Tabby: 4 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 16 damaged

Airbase hits 7
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 16

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 8000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Kushiro at 123,53

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 18 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 11
N1K5-J George x 41
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 16
Ki-84r Frank x 76

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 6
F6F-3 Hellcat x 74
TBM-3 Avenger x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 4 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed
TBM-3 Avenger: 4 destroyed

Japanese Ships
APD T-5

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 162 NM, estimated altitude 40,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 6
P-40K Warhawk x 6
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 7
P-51D Mustang x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 2 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 3 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 4 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x Ki-84r Frank sweeping at 38270 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kushiro at 123,53

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 11
N1K5-J George x 39
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 16
Ki-84r Frank x 75

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 49
TBM-3 Avenger x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 16 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed by flak
TBM-3 Avenger: 7 destroyed

Japanese Ships
APD T-13

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 71,43 (near Neikiang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 27441 troops, 296 guns, 104 vehicles, Assault Value = 730

Defending force 1563 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 73

Japanese adjusted assault: 511

Allied adjusted defense: 43

Japanese assault odds: 11 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
111 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 54 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
65th Division
51st Division
2nd Rocket Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
89th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 21208 troops, 320 guns, 685 vehicles, Assault Value = 1467

Defending force 10051 troops, 81 guns, 20 vehicles, Assault Value = 24

Allied adjusted assault: 138

Japanese adjusted defense: 125

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
331 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 15 (3 destroyed, 12 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (14 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
27 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
4th Marine Division
8th Australian Division
766th Tank Battalion
194th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
3rd Australian Division
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
10th Ind.Infantry Brigade
2nd Mortar Battalion
6th Base Force
205th Naval Construction Battalion
49th Const Co
12th Ind.Mixed Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
25th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
217th Naval Construction Battalion
46th Div /1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2461

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 5:24:00 PM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

I disagree that dropping the altitude of the Ki-83 may lead to better results. We don't know for sure, but the combat doesn't occur exclusively at the altitude setting of the CAP units nor at the altitude set for the sweeper. E.g., Ki-83 at 41K vs. CAP at 20K: the CAP is going to scramble upwards but it won't tell you how far; the Ki-83 is going to dive on the lower planes but it won't tell you at what altitude; the CAP may be set to patrol at 20K but not actually be at 20K because various reasons, etc.

Better to maintain the highest possible chance of dive bonus, and if they're meeting somewhere in the middle anyway then that's the best situation for the Ki-83 (or Frank-r, or Ki-94, or P-47, or P-51).

I probably shouldn't be advising my opponents

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2462

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 5:50:09 PM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To be honest, at least half of the late game involves managing turn fatigue better than your opponent. With dozens and dozens of squadrons and ships beyond telling, it's nigh impossible to min-max. You just need to eek the advantages better than your opponent. Lazy CAP, bomber groups set on the same strike mission day after day, stuff like that. The hard part is exploiting it for your own gain while not doing it yourself.

This is part of it, but this game is also without SL, so the Allies can dump as much as they want anywhere. The air war is significant, but he can protect landings with the DS and I have to be able to meet him on the ground with a LOT of troops if he lands on Hokkaido deep or on Honshu or Korea. This'll be interesting!

The lack of stacking limits gives far more to Japan than it does to the Allies. The Allies don't care about supply expenditure and by '44 one USMC or Army rifle squad is worth about two IJA squads in terms of firepower. It's better with two landings of 5k AV than ten landings with 1k AV each, even if it doesn't feel like it.

I'm not sure I get what you're saying, but I think I strongly disagree!!

Supply is not what I'm thinking about when I'm thinking about SL. The Allies can't land unlimited troops with SL because of disruption and fatigue, which will delay progress in long term siege battles. If they can land 5k AV without penalty at (almost) any point on the map, it makes a big difference.

I'm saying that over stacking comes with a cost. Excess supply consumption, fatigue, disruption. All of which the Allies are far better at managing than the Japanese. I say this with the disclaimer that I play with the vanilla map (IOW no stacking limits on non-island bases).

There was never much issue with a well executed Allied invasion taking island bases with stacking limits, even with the involvement of rules around island sizes/atolls. If it's a 30k men IJA stack versus a 30k men Allied stack, fighting in 1944 with no interference, you'll be hard pressed to get a Japanese victory. If it's a 120k IJA soldiers against 30k Allied ones, the odds differ a little.

In the event of major Allied landings, you need to "stack" the land combat model in you favour to have any chance of winning. Stacking limits doesn't let you do that. I think it's a fair feature in that it benefits the Japanese in some regards (China mainly) and the Allies in other regards, but I'm not fully convinced it's a good feature overall.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I disagree that dropping the altitude of the Ki-83 may lead to better results. We don't know for sure, but the combat doesn't occur exclusively at the altitude setting of the CAP units nor at the altitude set for the sweeper. E.g., Ki-83 at 41K vs. CAP at 20K: the CAP is going to scramble upwards but it won't tell you how far; the Ki-83 is going to dive on the lower planes but it won't tell you at what altitude; the CAP may be set to patrol at 20K but not actually be at 20K because various reasons, etc.

Better to maintain the highest possible chance of dive bonus, and if they're meeting somewhere in the middle anyway then that's the best situation for the Ki-83 (or Frank-r, or Ki-94, or P-47, or P-51).

I probably shouldn't be advising my opponents .

The way I see it is that in this particular circumstance, you're not certain get the dive bonus, but if you're operating at 31k or less you'll get the most out of the Ki-83's MVR. Obvert himself generated pretty good evidence that the dive bonus isn't everything, but as you say we don't really know how it works.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2463

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 7:21:58 PM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

But you're even less likely to get the dive bonus at 31K.

The dive bonus is far more important than the maneuver, which if you're not getting the dive bonus is just fine anyway - for the most part, the high-altitude Allied fighters are just as bad if not worse at maneuver up there (at the highest altitude). But if you set for 31K, you're lowering the chance of the dive bonus and increasing the chance that an Allied fighter is engaging your plane at an advantageous maneuver band for itself.

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 10/11/2018 7:23:00 PM >

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 2464

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 7:55:08 PM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

I've been playing with stacking limits for several years now and they DO have a huge impact on how large an attack force is viable.

Several times I have overloaded a hex with so much AV (6k British attacking Alor Star for example) I had to spend many days pulling troops out of the hex before my force was viable enough to both support and attack with.

All the while drawing down the overstack I was suffering horrendous land bombardment losses.
This is one of the most detrimental effects of heavy overstacking.

Drawing down an unworkable overstack on an island invasion is a lot more challenging than for a land mass battle.

Stacking limits do prevent you from attacking with as large as stack as you want or have available.
Limits force you to experiment to learn just how large an overstack is actually viable.

_____________________________

Hans

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 2465

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 8:28:54 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

But you're even less likely to get the dive bonus at 31K.

The dive bonus is far more important than the maneuver, which if you're not getting the dive bonus is just fine anyway - for the most part, the high-altitude Allied fighters are just as bad if not worse at maneuver up there (at the highest altitude). But if you set for 31K, you're lowering the chance of the dive bonus and increasing the chance that an Allied fighter is engaging your plane at an advantageous maneuver band for itself.

+1

For other airframes I have seen better results in mid-altitude bands, but the Ki-83 belongs up high.

The N1K5 is doing really well in the bands between 25k-29k though. Didn't expect that.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2466

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 8:59:00 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

In the event of major Allied landings, you need to "stack" the land combat model in you favour to have any chance of winning. Stacking limits doesn't let you do that. I think it's a fair feature in that it benefits the Japanese in some regards (China mainly) and the Allies in other regards, but I'm not fully convinced it's a good feature overall.

Stacking the landing hex in my case is next to impossible, as it isn't easy to know where that will be. Stacking limits allow a defender to stack a hex to near capacity and still be able to do that for other similar hexes without fear of a kitchen sink landing coming in (without penalties).

I like it though from both sides. It just feels better to me than putting all the eggs in one basket and smashing through. I think it encourages more creative and strategic thinking in the game.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 2467

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/11/2018 9:03:18 PM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

But you're even less likely to get the dive bonus at 31K.

The dive bonus is far more important than the maneuver, which if you're not getting the dive bonus is just fine anyway - for the most part, the high-altitude Allied fighters are just as bad if not worse at maneuver up there (at the highest altitude). But if you set for 31K, you're lowering the chance of the dive bonus and increasing the chance that an Allied fighter is engaging your plane at an advantageous maneuver band for itself.

This discussion had some neurons firing in me, so I had to go looking for the post. I wasn't even playing AE at that point...

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2565526&mpage=1&key=dive�

Here's the relevant extract.

quote:

A combat situation with one side having alt advantage usually starts with that side
diving on the other out of a position of advantage. Considering now that all other
factors are the same, after the initial dive the combat should begin to resolve on
more equal terms in case the side that was dived on did not get into a too inferior
position resulting from the first attack.

TheElf was the air team lead, and seems to support the notion, if I interpret his post correctly.

That said, you're right about the MVR delta between airframes changing with altitude to the point that it may be unfavourable.

The dive bonus is important, but I'm not convinced it's more important than MVR or speed or any other attributes that feed in to air combat. Some of the combat reports above serve as proof of that.

Maybe it's paramount in small scale engagements, but in the late war, with the big sweeps against big CAP, the dive advantage would overall be lost in the fighter furball.

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2468

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 7:53:15 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

These pics are (by chance, based on when the screen capture recorded the scene and messages) useful to see the complexity of the combat resolution for a multiple group sweep of a layered defensive CAP.

This one has the N1K5 group sweeping at 29k against defenders layered low and above at max 42k (P-47D25). They dive and get the advantage against a smaller number of CAP in the air at low altitude and do well, then later avoid the majority of the diving high CAP.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2469

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 8:04:47 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

This one shows the Ki-83 sweeping and "diving" on the P-47D25s .That's interesting because the max altitude (and setting) for the Ki-83 is ~41,500 while the P-47D25 is set at 42k. So the Ki-83 are diving on P-47s that either have dived previously or are working their way up from the airbase.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2470

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 8:15:11 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Thought I had one more, but I do remember the Frank later decimating the climbing or lower P-47s when it arrived. I think climb is an important factor here too. The P-47 is not the best climber.

Now onto the more pressing matter ...

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2471

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 8:40:51 AM

adarbrauner

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I disagree that dropping the altitude of the Ki-83 may lead to better results. We don't know for sure, but the combat doesn't occur exclusively at the altitude setting of the CAP units nor at the altitude set for the sweeper. E.g., Ki-83 at 41K vs. CAP at 20K: the CAP is going to scramble upwards but it won't tell you how far; the Ki-83 is going to dive on the lower planes but it won't tell you at what altitude; the CAP may be set to patrol at 20K but not actually be at 20K because various reasons, etc.

Better to maintain the highest possible chance of dive bonus, and if they're meeting somewhere in the middle anyway then that's the best situation for the Ki-83 (or Frank-r, or Ki-94, or P-47, or P-51).

I probably shouldn't be advising my opponents .

I'm very fine with higher altitude advantage replicating the possibility to get amore advantageous position in the aerial fight.

What I find hard sincerely to digest in the game is that higher airplanes do detect on a 90% (or so at least it appears to be)the lower ones...thus forfeiting to the need, in realistic terms, to keep or patrol deferent altitudes so not to let the intruders pass by undetected.

If some one can confirm the altitude gradient does significantly penalize the spotting of enemy formations in game, I'd just be the happiest (even though I doubt it).

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2472

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 8:46:50 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

This is a shot of Hokkaido and the surrounding area to show what I suspect will be happening in the next few turns. The Allies have landed small units to the East and West of Kushiro to block the rail. Smart. Except this lets me know exactly where the target of the invasion will be this time.

So I've played not to stop the invasion but to use these target hexes for sweeps, bombing runs and very limited naval strikes. The Allies may take one more turn to prepare before landing, but will almost assuredly move into close range of Kushiro. I plan to try to reduce the Allied CV CAP with LBA sweepers, LR CAP Kushiro after evacuating the very good fighter groups there to avoid losses from bombardments, and I've got a limited transport of more troops set to fly in.

This last part is risky as I'm sure the thousand fighter CAP of the DS will be there, but I've got to try since I can't rail them in. It also means he has to CAP to stop that and that's where the sweeps could be decisive. Only a few 2E TB will try for strikes today, waiting to see if tomorrow I could launch something a bit bigger with better odds.

I'm walking a bunch of troops back from protecting the North from an advance from Wakkanai now that the Allied troops have pulled back. I have two IDs and lots of arty moving from Asahikawa to Bihoro next turn and I'll move it overland if needed into Kushiro. Other varied units including a lot of ground troops have already begun the walk.

It's dicey here, but Kushiro has decent CD guns, forts 7 in a x2 wooded hex, and 1,650AV right now. Will it be enough? Can I get more in? Can I hit the DS and amphibs on day 2? This one will be interesting.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/12/2018 10:39:36 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2473

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 3:43:32 PM

Insano

Posts: 228
Joined: 7/23/2009
From: Joplin, Missouri
Status: offline

Unrelated but just for fun - what is the condition and location of Yamato? Still at Sapporo?

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Post #: 2474

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 4:03:59 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Insano

Unrelated but just for fun - what is the condition and location of Yamato? Still at Sapporo?

Shhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2475

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 4:14:35 PM

Insano

Posts: 228
Joined: 7/23/2009
From: Joplin, Missouri
Status: offline

Yikes! I will commit ritualistic seppoku to save face 😪🤐

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Post #: 2476

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 4:25:03 PM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I disagree that dropping the altitude of the Ki-83 may lead to better results. We don't know for sure, but the combat doesn't occur exclusively at the altitude setting of the CAP units nor at the altitude set for the sweeper. E.g., Ki-83 at 41K vs. CAP at 20K: the CAP is going to scramble upwards but it won't tell you how far; the Ki-83 is going to dive on the lower planes but it won't tell you at what altitude; the CAP may be set to patrol at 20K but not actually be at 20K because various reasons, etc.

Better to maintain the highest possible chance of dive bonus, and if they're meeting somewhere in the middle anyway then that's the best situation for the Ki-83 (or Frank-r, or Ki-94, or P-47, or P-51).

I probably shouldn't be advising my opponents .

I'm very fine with higher altitude advantage replicating the possibility to get amore advantageous position in the aerial fight.

What I find hard sincerely to digest in the game is that higher airplanes do detect on a 90% (or so at least it appears to be)the lower ones...thus forfeiting to the need, in realistic terms, to keep or patrol deferent altitudes so not to let the intruders pass by undetected.

If some one can confirm the altitude gradient does significantly penalize the spotting of enemy formations in game, I'd just be the happiest (even though I doubt it).

The need for different altitudes becomes apparent when protecting against strikes, particularly when they're strikes against ships (really high altitude bombing isn't going to do much, but you maybe want to be up there to protect against sweeps which you can't do against ships...).

I don't think there is any kind of spotting penalty. Raids/planes seem to be spotted from the ground, mostly.

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Post #: 2477

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 8:15:56 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Insano

Yikes! I will commit ritualistic seppoku to save face 😪🤐

She is still at Sapporo, still fixing up systems, but all pumped out. I think at about 35/45/18 or something like that last I checked.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2478

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/12/2018 9:09:05 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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As I suspected. The largest single day landing I've seen in game. Shore defenses have a crack, but in spite of huge disablement messages the bombardment reveals the extent of my problem. This might be more than I can solve even with a few day's warning.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kushiro (123,53)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 46847 troops, 412 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 1669

Defending force 148773 troops, 2179 guns, 3724 vehicles, Assault Value = 4573

Japanese ground losses:
167 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Assaulting units:
49th Cavalry Regiment
1st Recon Regiment
301st Ind.Infantry Battalion
38th Division
51st Ind.Mixed Bde /1
56th Ind.Mixed Bde /3
8th Division
Kure 7th SNLF
58th Ind.Mixed Brigade
49th Engineer Regiment
14th Naval Guard Unit
1st Engineer Co
Yangtze SNLF
Ichiki Det. /1
27th Special Base Force
63rd JAAF AF Bn
4th Air Army
17th Naval Construction Battalion
33rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
13th JAAF Base Force
51st Base Force
52nd JNAF AF Unit /2

Defending units:
44th Tank Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
2/4th Armoured Regiment
2/6th Armoured Regiment
96th Infantry Division
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
I Corps Cmbt Engr Rgt /7
716th Tank Battalion
815th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
4th Armoured Brigade
767th Tank Battalion
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
3rd Motor Brigade
4th USMC Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
25th Infantry Div /8
3rd Marine Div /7
38th Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
112th Cavalry Regiment
43rd Infantry Division
775th Tank Battalion
2nd Marine Div /8
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
XIV Corps Combat Engr Rgt /6
33rd Medium Regiment
12th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
694th Field Artillery Battalion
47th Coastal Artillery Regiment
85/88/98th Mortar Rgt /3
27th USN Naval Const Rgt /1
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
17th NZ AA Bde /1
738th Cst AA Rgt /3
III US Amphib Corps
I Corps Artillery /3
544th Field Artillery Battalion
225th Field Artillery Battalion
189th USAAF Base Force /1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This combat kind of tells the story!

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/12/2018 9:10:47 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2479

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/13/2018 1:51:54 AM

Bif1961

Posts: 2014
Joined: 6/26/2008
From: Phenix City, Alabama
Status: offline

You must be hoping for the Allies to collide avoiding your armada.

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Post #: 2480

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/13/2018 4:30:05 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This combat kind of tells the story!

C'mon man! You can take 'em!

_____________________________

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Post #: 2481

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/13/2018 5:58:56 PM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This combat kind of tells the story!

C'mon man! You can take 'em!

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2482

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/13/2018 9:04:53 PM

Insano

Posts: 228
Joined: 7/23/2009
From: Joplin, Missouri
Status: offline

It�s time to show no mercy and bomb him with Sonias 😄

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Post #: 2483

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/15/2018 1:22:23 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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Feb 8, 1944

I'm actually glad I didn't send in 1,000 strikes planes and escorts for that turn. The DS had a 1,400 fighter CAP up and was positioned exactly where my sweeps were headed, so I was able to pick off another 100+ USN fighters for about 1:1 against my several sweeping groups. I lost a good number of LR CAP that got swept up in the mix, but that's okay as they were mostly Ki-100 and A6M with mediocre pilots.

I'll still have a go at getting another 1.5k AV troops to Kushiro overland, but I think the combination of Allied landings, aerial bombardments and shore bombardments will make Kushiro tough to hold against this much force. This is the downside of a game without SL.

As my troops will have to cross a clear hex to get to Kushiro I will plan for a massive LR CAP to combat the huge strike that will surely happen there. He bombed Bihoro with about 400 2E and 4E today, and it did some moderate damage, but even the B-29s are involved. I like that he's using B-29s in this way.

One note. I see F4-F-4 were part of the DS CAP!! That's a throwback! Seems a pretty good indicator that the Hellcats aren't as plentiful as they once were.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 8, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on 16th Canadian Brigade, at 122,53 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 117 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 45
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 32
Ki-100-I Tony x 17

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 14
Corsair IV x 5
Hellcat I x 16
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 14
FM-2 Wildcat x 9
F4U-1A Corsair x 136
F4U-1D Corsair x 252
F6F-3 Hellcat x 506
F6F-5 Hellcat x 399

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 15 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 12 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 6 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Canadian Brigade, at 122,53 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 36,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 47
Ki-84r Frank x 45

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 14
Corsair IV x 5
Hellcat I x 15
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 10
FM-2 Wildcat x 9
F4U-1A Corsair x 130
F4U-1D Corsair x 234
F6F-3 Hellcat x 454
F6F-5 Hellcat x 372

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 14 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 12 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Seafire IIC: 1 destroyed
Seafire L.III: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 4 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 6 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 6 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 103
B-29-25 Superfort x 4
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 38
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 31

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 62 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed by flak
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 10 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 19 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
269 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Airbase hits 63
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 42

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 7000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 7th Base Force, at 123,51 (Bihoro)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 10
PV-1 Ventura x 48

Allied aircraft losses
PV-1 Ventura: 22 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 2 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
87 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x PV-1 Ventura bombing from 8000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 5th Area Army, at 123,51 (Bihoro)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 3
B-24J Liberator x 4
B-29-25 Superfort x 85

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-29-25 Superfort: 15 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 17000 feet
Ground Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 65

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 24 damaged

Airbase hits 11
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 19

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 16th Canadian Brigade, at 122,53 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 119 NM, estimated altitude 42,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 11
Ki-84r Frank x 47
Ki-100-I Tony x 11

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 13
Corsair IV x 5
Hellcat I x 15
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 7
P-38L Lightning x 39
F4F-4 Wildcat x 14
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
F4U-1A Corsair x 133
F4U-1D Corsair x 238
F6F-3 Hellcat x 450
F6F-5 Hellcat x 379

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 4 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 11 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 2 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 6 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 7 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kushiro at 123,53

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
E13A1 Jake x 14
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 12
Ki-83 x 16
Ki-84r Frank x 32

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 6 damaged
E13A1 Jake: 2 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
AKA Alshain
APA Hunter Liggett, Bomb hits 2
APA Haskell, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
CLAA Prince Robert, Bomb hits 2, on fire

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x E13A1 Jake bombing from 1000 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Carrier support unable to supply air cover..

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Kushiro at 123,53

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 9 damaged
E13A1 Jake: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
BB California
BB Pennsylvania
CL St. Louis
DD Wren
DD Wedderburn
DD Walker
DD Thatcher
DD Chauncey
DD Bush

Japanese ground losses:
288 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Airbase hits 52
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 71
Port hits 1
Port fuel hits 1

BB California firing at 38th Division
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/15/2018 1:23:36 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2484

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/15/2018 1:29:27 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Depending on how much FOW is present for the ops losses, it's possible up to 150 fighters have been shaved off of the DS CAP. I'd think he'd be around one more day, but I'm hoping the sweeps scared him off and the remains of support and other big devices (if any are left) will be carried away to be brought back later. Any delay at all is a plus.

My troops moved an expected 10/46 yesterday toward the clear between Bihoro and Kushiro. I'll keep going until it's clear the this is pointless and the Allied machine will take the base.

Responses for tomorrow will again be measured in the air, but will have some bite if the Allies allow the same kind of exploitation of sweeping hexes.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/15/2018 7:25:16 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2485

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/15/2018 4:24:58 PM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

I think you could move the Big Sweet Potato at 35/45/18... if you had to. While in Readiness mode, she will still pump out any remaining minor flooding. I'd be thinking about switching her, if you haven't already.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2486

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 10/15/2018 8:06:13 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I think you could move the Big Sweet Potato at 35/45/18... if you had to. While in Readiness mode, she will still pump out any remaining minor flooding. I'd be thinking about switching her, if you haven't already.

Most likely. I've been waiting for something to distract the USN subs nearby, speed to improve and for system damage to be manageable. It's probably a good time,

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/18/2018 7:41:56 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2487

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 10/15/2018 8:07:32 PM

Insano

Posts: 228
Joined: 7/23/2009
From: Joplin, Missouri
Status: offline

Nice use of battle Jakes getting an APA.

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2488

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 10/18/2018 8:22:55 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Feb 9, 1945

Big turn! The Allies must have landed in very good shape in spite of all of the CD guns. They try an SA on day 2 here!!

I'm stunned by what can happen in a non-SL game with this kind of firepower landing at once in a single hex and being all ready to go the next day. Luckily, the base holds for a 1:2 but forts drop to 6 and the Japanese losses are heavier than I'd like. I'll no longer speculate on what happened to Allied troops and just assume they're fine and will attack again tomorrow!

So, the flights in will continue, but that's only 100-150AV since the fields are shot. I'll keep moving reinforcements toward the base. One tank unit made it into the clear and will hold the hex before being carpet bombed into vapour tomorrow.

This is what hit Bihoro and Kushiro today! One thing I'm very happy about is the continued use of B-29s in these missions. I'd like to get a good hit on them here, but it's probably not going to happen. Other priorities tomorrow.

B-29-1 - 86
B-29-25 -217
B-24J - 106
PB4Y-1 - 41
Lib B. VI - 34
Lib GR. VI - 9

Sweeps did well again, getting another 100+ CV fighters in the bag. I'm guessing they will withdraw next turn. Too bad!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 9, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

386 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
AP Gen. A.E.Anderson, Shell hits 13, on fire
DE Robert F. Keller
DE Foreman
PF Sausalito
AM Superior
AP Gen. H.W.Butner, Shell hits 3, on fire
AP Gen. G.O.Squier
DD Roebuck

Allied ground losses:
367 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 41 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

12cm 10YT DP Gun Battery engaging AP Gen. A.E.Anderson at 12,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

363 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Virginia Lykes, Shell hits 5, on fire
xAK Red Jacket
xAP Noordam
DD Rapid

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 30 (17 destroyed, 13 disabled)

12cm 10YT DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Virginia Lykes at 15,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

424 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Santa Monica, Shell hits 48, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Connolly
DE Bebas
AM Heed
xAP Chilka

Allied ground losses:
189 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 14 (2 destroyed, 12 disabled)

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Santa Monica at 3,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

396 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Kekerangu, Shell hits 19, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Emery
AM Chief
LCI(G)-457
LCI(G)-456
LCI(G)-451
AK Venus
DE Lake

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Vehicles lost 15 (1 destroyed, 14 disabled)

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Kekerangu at 7,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

389 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LCI(G)-467, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCI(G)-470
LST-179
LST-180
LST-214
LST-205

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 13 (2 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (8 destroyed, 4 disabled)

12cm 10YT DP Gun Battery engaging LCI(G)-467 at 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at 122,53

TF 769 troops unloading over beach at 122,53

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 35 (0 destroyed, 35 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

96 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
PF Orange
PF San Pedro
DMS Trevor
APA Drew, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Van Galen
DD Nepal

PF Orange fired at enemy troops

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Kushiro at 123,53

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-D-104, hits 8, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DE Lake, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
AK Shaula
AK Caelum
xAP Filleigh
xAP Durenda
xAP Comliebank
xAP Chilka
xAK Yochow
xAK Kekerangu, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Emery

SSX Ha-D-104 launches 2 torpedoes at DE Lake
Ha-D-104 bottoming out ....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Kushiro at 123,53

Japanese Ships
SS I-41, hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
SS I-43, hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
BB New York
BB Tennessee
CL Honolulu
DD Downes
DD Flusser
DD Mahan
DD Ingraham
DD Bell

Japanese ground losses:
333 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Airbase hits 11
Runway hits 17
Port hits 4
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 1

BB New York firing at 38th Division

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 194 encounters mine field at Kushiro (123,53)

Allied Ships
DMS Trevor
DD Van Galen
PF Orange
PF San Pedro
DD Nepal, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

10 mines cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

720 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
AP Gen. G.O.Squier
DD Roebuck

Allied ground losses:
193 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 6,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

323 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DE Ulvert M. Moore
xAP Noordam
DD Rapid

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 30 (13 destroyed, 17 disabled)

DE Ulvert M. Moore fired at enemy troops
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 1,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

340 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Afoundria II, Shell hits 22, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Connolly
DE Bebas
AM Heed
xAP Chilka

Allied ground losses:
93 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 0 disabled

12cm 10YT DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Afoundria II at 5,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

350 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Yochow, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCI(G)-457
LCI(G)-456
LCI(G)-451
AK Venus
DE Emery

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 27 (17 destroyed, 10 disabled)

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Yochow at 5,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

353 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Red Jacket, Shell hits 1
xAP Noordam
DD Rapid

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 4 (4 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (16 destroyed, 1 disabled)

12cm 10YT DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Red Jacket at 14,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

682 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DE Connolly
DE Bebas
AM Heed
xAP Chilka

Allied ground losses:
151 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled

DE Connolly fired at enemy troops

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Canadian Brigade, at 122,53 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 30,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 36

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 13
Corsair IV x 6
Hellcat I x 16
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 6
F4F-4 Wildcat x 19
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
F4U-1A Corsair x 144
F4U-1D Corsair x 237
F6F-3 Hellcat x 436
F6F-5 Hellcat x 396

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 13 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 5 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 5 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Canadian Brigade, at 122,53 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 42,270 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 12
Corsair IV x 6
Hellcat I x 16
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 16
Seafire L.III x 6
F4F-4 Wildcat x 19
FM-2 Wildcat x 7
F4U-1A Corsair x 140
F4U-1D Corsair x 232
F6F-3 Hellcat x 418
F6F-5 Hellcat x 372

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 10 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
Hellcat I: 1 destroyed
Hellcat F.II: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 8 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 5 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Canadian Brigade, at 122,53 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 18

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 10
Corsair IV x 6
Hellcat I x 14
Hellcat F.II x 10
Seafire IIC x 15
Seafire L.III x 5
F4F-4 Wildcat x 18
FM-2 Wildcat x 7
F4U-1A Corsair x 136
F4U-1D Corsair x 226
F6F-3 Hellcat x 401
F6F-5 Hellcat x 348

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 4 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 16
N1K5-J George x 21
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 21
Ki-83 x 31
Ki-84r Frank x 46

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt II x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Thunderbolt II: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 18 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 14
N1K5-J George x 21
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 16
Ki-83 x 22
Ki-84r Frank x 13

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 42,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 14
N1K5-J George x 21
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 15
Ki-83 x 19
Ki-84r Frank x 6

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 15th Base Force, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 73 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 2
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 31
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 18
TBM-3 Avenger x 8

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 8 damaged
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 4 destroyed by flak
TBM-3 Avenger: 1 damaged
TBM-3 Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 3000'
Ground Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb, 2 x 250 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 1st Base Force, at 123,51 (Bihoro)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 13
N1K5-J George x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 4
Ki-83 x 9

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 41

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 destroyed, 26 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
178 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 7000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 24
B-29-1 Superfort x 77
B-29-25 Superfort x 108
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 59 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak
B-29-25 Superfort: 43 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
47 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 21

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Kushiro (123,53)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

355 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK North Wind, Shell hits 11, heavy fires
DE Connolly
DE Bebas
AM Heed
xAP Chilka

Allied ground losses:
71 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled

8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging xAK North Wind at 4,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kushiro (123,53)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 149501 troops, 2212 guns, 3824 vehicles, Assault Value = 4747

Defending force 64521 troops, 558 guns, 151 vehicles, Assault Value = 1678

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 6

Allied adjusted assault: 3430

Japanese adjusted defense: 3785

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
5578 casualties reported
Squads: 111 destroyed, 228 disabled
Non Combat: 59 destroyed, 111 disabled
Engineers: 74 destroyed, 35 disabled
Guns lost 85 (37 destroyed, 48 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
4929 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 729 disabled
Non Combat: 12 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 161 disabled
Guns lost 164 (21 destroyed, 143 disabled)
Vehicles lost 246 (13 destroyed, 233 disabled)

Assaulting units:
38th Infantry Division
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
716th Tank Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
767th Tank Battalion
112th Cavalry Regiment
96th Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
815th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
2nd Marine Division
775th Tank Battalion
25th Infantry Division
2/6th Armoured Regiment
3rd Motor Brigade
3rd Marine Division
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
4th USMC Tank Battalion
4th Armoured Brigade
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
2/4th Armoured Regiment
44th Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
43rd Infantry Division
11th Airborne Div /1
IX Corps Artillery
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
XIV Corps Artillery
47th Coastal Artillery Regiment
694th Field Artillery Battalion
17th NZ AA Bde
189th USAAF Base Force
544th Field Artillery Battalion
33rd Medium Regiment
27th USN Naval Construction Regiment
12th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
738th Coast AA Regiment
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
225th Field Artillery Battalion
I Corps Artillery
III US Amphib Corps
85/88/98th Mortar Rgt /3

Defending units:
49th Engineer Regiment
14th Naval Guard Unit
301st Ind.Infantry Battalion
38th Division
51st Ind.Mixed Bde /1
Yangtze SNLF
1st Engineer Co
49th Cavalry Regiment
1st Recon Regiment
56th Ind.Mixed Bde /3
58th Ind.Mixed Brigade
Kure 7th SNLF
8th Division
49th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
Ichiki Det. /1
17th Naval Construction Battalion
33rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
27th Special Base Force
63rd JAAF AF Bn
51st Base Force
4th Air Army
13th JAAF Base Force
52nd JNAF AF Unit /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Insano)

Post #: 2489

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 10/20/2018 2:56:50 PM

Bif1961

Posts: 2014
Joined: 6/26/2008
From: Phenix City, Alabama
Status: offline

Looks like enough troops in one lift to rival the D-Day landings.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2490

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