Lokasenna
Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012 From: Iowan in MD/DC Status: offline
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ORIGINAL: Spidery quote:
I think there is an opportunity to look at the big picture. maybe an IJFB can chime in but given the level of IJ fighter production and losses about how much HI would the IJ typically have saved? Joc should have the world cut off and the IJ should be using the HI reserves at this point? I would assume that the IJ economy is about to have its day of reckoning ? It is impossible to make even an educated guess from the outside looking in. At its peak, Japanese fuel production is about 10 million per year and Japan starts with about 6 million stockpiles (including oil stock). Depending how much naval movement there has been, and how quickly the Japanese navy shrunk, 8 to 12 million might be spent by the Navy by now. Depending how much the naval programme was curtailed could make a lot of difference as well. So any estimate is going to be +/- a few million and 1 million HI represents 20,000 aircraft. I.e. the total aircraft build falls within the margin of error in estimating HI. To give a feel for just how variable it is, there are 5 Tonan Whaler TK, if these have all been sunk laden with fuel that is about 1500 aircraft less built then if they were sunk heading back empty. Minor quibble. The Tonans can carry 16,435 Fuel. At 36 HI per single engine plane, that's only 456.53. Not insubstantial, but definitely not 1500 planes! quote:
ORIGINAL: JocMeister quote:
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Judging by the air losses... from what I can see in the screenshot a couple of posts up, adding up all of the IJ planes listed in the second screenshot is a total of 23,818 engines. That's 857,448 HI spent. There are 10891 IJ aircraft unaccounted for. Assuming half of those are 2E (Netties?), 40% 1E (Vals, Rufes, etc.), and 10% 4E flying boats (Obvert has used them a lot, unsure if 110 is a reasonable number for their losses)... That still only totals about 1.5M HI. For 3 years of game time (1098 turns?), that's not TOO much. 1366 HI per day. With Scen 1 pilot training costs, I think Obvert can afford this. Perhaps part of the problem, Joc, is that you're fighting over his bases a lot with sweeps, so his pilot losses are much lower than they otherwise would be? As for operating outside of air cover, are you playing with the database fixes? They make AAA much deadlier, and if he wants to inflict any kind of real losses on your LCUs from the air it's going to require planes, blood, and supplies that he may not be able to afford. Even IJAAF humble 2E bombing campaigns just burn up the supply. In an AI game not so long ago, I was bombing daily with ~500 IJAAF 2Es, all Helens/Sallys. The supply required numbers at their airbases jumped to a total of ~40k between them. If he wants to expend that amount of supply now (not to mention the HI to replace the planes, and the hard-to-replace pilots), it's going to really hurt him later. RE: pool levels in general - You're in the "dead zone" for the P-47 right now, aren't you? I just loaded up a game from the Allied side. The P-47D25 stops being replaced in 6/44, and the P-47N doesn't start until 3/45. I think I remember seeing this pop up in other threads. You just started receiving the P-51D at 120/mo and the F4U-1D at 158. Maybe it's time to let the USMC pilots take over a bit of the burden? Also, I agree with Bullwinkle a bit here. You could use other good planes at high altitudes if you weren't restricted to second-best rating. For example, the F4U-1D has a max alt of 39.3, which is still slightly higher than the -84r Frank and it's SR1 vs. the Frank's 3. Likewise, your P-38s are being prevented from doing their historical job as well by that HR - they have max alts near 40k, but their second-best band tops out at 31k. But you're 3 years in, so we can discuss that in a different thread/game ;). Thanks for the input Lokasenna! I havn´t actually been sweeping his bases since a few months back. He withdrew to Bangkok/Manila 2-3 months ago. After that I have been sweeping his LRCAP. Often over his troops though. Don´t know if that helps with pilots losses or if its own bases only? I just did a quick and dirty count on HI costs. Assuming Erik has about 3 million HI in the bank now. If he spend 2 million of those on fighters alone thats 36 HI per plane right? So he can make 11.000 fighters just using HI in that is currently "in the bank"? Would this be a fairly accurate assumption? You are right about the P47. But I have been really restrictive in my use of them and had a good pool of 450 P47s when the -25 version stopped running. The last 4 weeks just drained them including some 250 more that was in squadrons. Keep in mind that he also has pilot training HI costs. If he had 3M HI in the bank, and spent 2M on fighters at 36 HI per plane, that's actually 55,555 fighters he could build... Obviously, no one is able to actually build that many, because there are so many other costs. Any NavSY he might still be doing (I actually can't think of anything worth it at this late date, except maybe subs and smaller craft?), plus 6 HI per Armaments/Vehicle, which he'll still need to run. Especially come August when the Soviets activate, at least so Pax claims (and I mostly believe him, though it depends on whether the IJ turns replacements on or off in Manchuria). I think leaving only 1M HI to account for the other costs is too low. I would reverse it, and be surprised if he spent 1M HI in the next year on planes, considering he hasn't even spent that much on losses to date in 3 years. Plus he has to account for "Are the B-29s going to torch my factories?"
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