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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 8:01:31 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I came home & did a cheesy 'sandbox'. I put a lvl 7 allied AF on Pagan, 100k supply, & 3 BF for 6 CPS-1 radars. No fighter coverage at all. I put a 36 group of Helen's, and a 32 group of Tojo's on Saipan. Five raids for each group, 1 at 28-33k to cause the algorithm to hopefully change. All 10 raids were seen 10 minutes out. Totally unscientific, but all I have time for.


It would be interesting to see you try that with one BF with one radar. Same EXP, of course.

Cheers,
CC

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4171
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 2:05:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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Just before sunset, a lone Commanchee, unarmed and riding a piebald mustang, approached the camp. He wore a breach cloth, bone necklace and a single hawk's feather, nothing else. His skin was like copper, unlined by age. Clint walked out and met him 50 yards beyond the Erwin wagon. In broken English and sign language, the warrior told Clint that the settlers were on a sacred burial ground and must leave. Then he turned and left without speaking another word.

***********

OpSec: On Saturday night, John asked me if I had a list of our House Rules. I checked the start of my AAR and the game file and didnt' find anything. So I emailed him a list of nine that I could remember and said I'd try to think of any others. I thought of one other late that night and emailed John Sunday morning. It was like I'd hit him in the head with a stick. He wrote back saying this was the very issue being discussed in his AAR and that someone had violated OpSec by tipping me off. I wrote him back and told him that there hadn't been any OpSec violation. I hadn't heard from anybody. He apologized and we've moved on. (I can understand where he was coming from - the sequence was unusual and things are so tense in the game that we're on edge.)

The HR at issue is use of night bombers. He and I discussed this issue long after the game began - and, hence, long after the original HR were agreed to. If I remember correctly, the discussion came about shortly after I invaded Sabang. I think he might even have employed some bombers at night. We had a back and forth discussion. My memory is that there were Forum concerns at the time that night bombing was a bit borked. John and I agreed to mutually refrain, especially since night bombing was used fairly infrequently and never in massed numbers. And that was it for that topic.

So, if my memory is right, that discussion took place not long after the 11/10/42 D-Day - certainly before the end of 1942. I think I mentioned this in my AAR, so I'm going to go back and read through it (I read a bit last night and then tried a search, but without success.)

Anyhow, I think John is satisfied now that there wasn't an OpSec and that we did discuss and agree to refrain, at least from large use of night bombers. We haven't talked since that early exchange, but I'll check with him when he sends the next turn.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/25/2016 3:07:18 PM >

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 4172
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 2:20:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Well Canoe, the choice is yours. Even playing conservative will probably spell doom for John. If he does not throw you out of Sumatra then I see nothing bright in the fortunes of Japan. But it will be touch and go. Given the weakness of the Allied air force, I think a top Japanese player can throw the Allies out of Sumatra at this stage of the war, but it will take excellent play on his behalf with most all the force he has. Personally, I think I would be a bit cautious and force him to find a solution rather than try to run the table on him. But, there is the fun factor of just going hell for balls too....Phunket is a nice place to hold. He really is reaching a point where it is difficult to pull off many counter invasions.

I just think that I would rather be in your shoes..


I'm currently reading through the AAR to find the HR discussion on night bombers (a slow, arduous task given the length of this AAR). I haven't found anything yet, but did find this prescient comment by crsutton back around D+1 (around 11/11/42).

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 4173
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 2:28:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here are a few comments about the game.

First, as you can imagine, this has been just a blast. To have the tension and uncertainty of a vast operation that took forever to come to fruition come to fruiton in such a mighty way is simply amazingly fun. So, I tip my cap to the designer of this game and to my opponent, who fights hard and who is aggressive and who flips turns as often as possible and who sometimes irritates me but who I really, really like and who I know well enough to sometimes be able to put together amazingly intricate and fun plans that don't get sniffed out for Just In Time Reinforcements, Part III.

I am aware that the fun won't last and that big hurts are coming. That won't be fun. But dang, what a game!

Now, a true story about OpSec that may put everything into perspective. I once played a PBEM match as Allies against a crafty opponent who orchestrated a huge 1944 invasion of southern India. I had nothing there...except, one slow R-Class BB had just finished upgrading at Bombay and was enroute to Colombo. It just so happened that on the very turn the Japanese amphbious armada arrived at Trivandrum to begin unloading, said BB was in that hex. My opponent howled and screamed OpSec violation! I was beside myself that my honor had been questioned! It took us some turns and some harsh words to get that straighted out. Eventually, my opponent realized that nobody sends an unescorted BB into harm's way. Point being - a small coincidence was sufficient to unleash doubts about my integrity and OpSec.

My opponent in that game? John III.

Same thing in this game, but on a vastly larger scale. I won't go back through the details, but talk about massive consecutive coincidences and predictions! Anyhow, you can see how such an environment might breed questions. You can also imagine how somebody totally innocent - as John III is, of that I've never had a doubt - would be highly agitated, mortified, stricken and fuming about allegations of dishonor. So, gents, if any of you harbor any doubts, I hope you will agree that the circumstances warrant total dismissal of OpSec concerns. If anyone has publicly stated (as in John III's AAr) reservations about OPSec, I hope you can see it in your hearts to publicly withdraw them and repair any breach.

Now, I will say that it is possible for any player (including me) to pick up very subtle almost subliminal things through AAR comments. In the hands of a smart and wary AAR keeper, those things may coalesce in remarkably insightful ways that yield strong hunches. I think that kind of thing will happen in every game wtih an AAR. For instance, in this game, you guys have been remarkably, commendably, assiduously careful not to reveal OpSec. But I seemed to pick up sublte undercurrents that suggested my maskirovka might be working (though, at the same time, I was harboring doubts that some Japanese fans might even be performing counter-good feelings.). Let emphasize - these were the smallest of things - an attitude, a concern, and ephemera like that. OpSec violation? Of course not. Nobody even had the slightest idea that I might be able to sniff the slightest thing. But I'm convinced that any AAR is going to generate small electricl and magnetic undercurrents that almost become a part of the game. So, did John benefit from something like that? Probably. I just think that's universal, 100% unintentional, and 100% impossible to prevent.


Here's an interesting post D-Day comment about OpSec and coincidences....

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4174
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 2:38:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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The last sentence by JohnDillworth is in the AE Hall of Fame. In fact they should be the wrods that greet every visitor to the Hall of Fame.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

And now, a commercial interruption [i.e. hijack] ...

OK - I have been quiet about this for a long time but my fifth grade teacher drilled some things into me that will not be compromised.

Let's get it straight: a strait does not have the letters "gh" and it may or may not be straight!

And "dire straights" would be heterosexual people opposed to gay marriage, while "dire straits" are narrow and hazardous channels that must be navigated carefully to avoid disaster.

Is everybody straight on straits now? Good! We resume the regular program ...
[/hijack off].


I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 3:10:26 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

I'm currently reading through the AAR to find the HR discussion on night bombers (a slow, arduous task given the length of this AAR). I haven't found anything yet,


In early July 2013, around page 94 of this AAR, you should find some discussion of night bombing. It sounds like a night raid on Sabang was mounted, and there was no protest at the time.

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 3:26:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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I've read from D-Day up through page 100 of this AAR. There were alot of discussions in the AAR about night bombing. The post quoted below (2977 on page 100) is the most instructive up to that point. Post 2930 on page 98 also bears on the issus, as do a number of posts on earlier pages.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I figured you guys might appreciate an update that will help bring closure to the OpSec question.  John and I have exchanged lengthy but not exhaustive emails (that might take several emails).  The person who originally notified me of his own OpSec concerns also wrote John a lengthy and particularly well written email.  So John is fully aware of what happened, he's aware that I'm not taking night-bombing precautions until further notice, and we've briefly discussed night bombing (he didn't come right out and say it, but I think he intends to keep it at the historical nuisance level, which suits me fine and which I will reciprocate).  This all came together very nicely.  I don't think the slightest questions exist with regard to anybody involved in either AAR.  And that concludes the matter, as far as I'm concerned.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 3:50:07 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's an interesting post D-Day comment about OpSec and coincidences....


I noticed that your posting style changed after the general events in this AAR. I dont post anything I dont want my opponent to know although his honor is without question.

That completely eliminates any possibility of question in my mind and places the responsibility for OPSEC where it belongs, upon myself ;]

_____________________________


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Post #: 4178
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 5:05:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/16/43

Clint well knew there were no "sacred grounds" here. The Commanchee were clever, and he thought they had come up with this ruse to get information. That warrior was doing nothing more than scouting, looking to get a head count and to feel out the settler's defenses. So Clint decided to cross them up by employing a new tactic. He put together a raiding party of his own - six of the settlers who seemed sure of themselves - able to move quietly, quickly and confidently, and not afraid of getting into a firefight at night.

Battle of Sumatra: A magnficient day for the Allied navy, as two combat TFs moved out of Sabang and hit vulnerable enemy shipping at Phuket. The four USN DDs went in first, hammering a large xAK convoy, then moving on to hit an xAP convoy, then finally tangling with four or five IJN DDs plus CL Tama. Behind the US DDs came an RN cruiser TF that mauled the xAP TF and then stood toe-to-toe with the IJN DDs. The result of all this was that the Japanese lost 160 points in shipping, including CL Tama and a bunch of xAK and xAP (including at least four 18-pointers of the latter, so good ships). The Japanese might also lose a DD and some smaller escorts (TB and E). The Allies lost DD Farenholt. CL Birmingham suffered light-moderate damage - enough that she probably shouldn't be sent into battle again. The Japanse ships were carrying troops - lots of squads destroyed. These might have been parts of 48th Division being extracted from the island or base support incoming...or both. Why John left this TF unprotected just those few hexes from Sabang only he can say. :)

BB Indiana TF was also inbound to Phuket. I think all targets must have been gone when she arrived, because no action occurred. So I don't think John is even aware that Sabang was totally unguarded for one turn.

No enemy sweeps of Sabang. The airfield goes to level 9. Fighter numbers up to 460 or so. I"m going to release some supply as the units at Langsa are low. Last time I did this the open spigot let too much out. I've tried to configure it properly. Let's see.

Still lots of enemy capital ships around. They'll come for Sabang any night now - very possibly tonight. The RN cruiser force isn't available as she's still one hex from Sabang and low on ammo. She'll disband. The three USN DDs and the Indiana TF are present and fully supplied. Should I vacate the port again, hoping that John sends in combat TFs (and no bombardment TFs!) so that he encounters only mines and PT boats? Or is that too much of a risk now? I'm leaning towards vacating port tonight. (But....the thought just occurred that perhaps he sent in combat ships last night and they found the port empty...only there are the PT boats, so that seems unlikely.)

KB: disappeared from the radar screen. I have picket ships out there, so I'm hoping to pick her back up. I want to send combat ship reinforcments to Sabang, but don't want them hammered by the KB. Also, Fletchers begin to come back online in two days. It would be very helpful if the KB didn't maintain a blocking position. But that's entirely in John's hands.

DEI: SigInt that a base force is inbound to Dempassar - John is attending to the gap in NavSearch. Two USN DDs from Perth will try to intercept, though they're probably too far away to make it in time.

USN Subs: Sank an xAK near Truk and damage a troop xAP (destroying some squads) off the China coast.

It was a good day for the Allies. But the thing is that things can change daily given the immense forces concentrated in the Sumatra area. I think the Allies can hold their own in the air war now. The ground war is going fine. I'm concerned about the vulnerability of Langsa to invasion. But the biggest problem right now is combat ship disparity. There's very little doubt that John can overwhelm the Allied ships at Sabang. The two unknowns are: (1) will 960 mines prove effective against enemy ships, and (2) when can I send in meaningful reinforcements?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/25/2016 6:08:03 PM >

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 4179
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 7:22:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Decisions made. Orders given.

1. Indiana TF and USN DD TF will remain at Sabang and patrol. Two PT boat TFs will patrol one hex to the east.
2. Two TBF squadrons moved from Colombo to Sabang and set at range two. One small fighter squadron at Sabang likewise set at two. These are just in case a sea battle takes place at Sabang and cripples only make a hex or two afterwards.
3. Allied subs far to the west of Sabang show 10/10 detection levels, so I think KB is loitering out there.
4. As you can imagine, John was stung at Phuket last turn. His comments in his email confirmed that. I think he'll be looking for revenge tonight. I was very tempted to move the combat ships out of Sabang so that he wouldn't have a target for his blood lust, but the deciding factor was concern that he might just be so mad that he would send bombardment ships in.

Every turn is immense now.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 7:41:46 PM   
Lowpe


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This AAR needs pictures!

The Indiana in action!




Well, I guess she didn't fire her guns yesterday, but still, a pretty awesome picture.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 1/25/2016 8:47:15 PM >

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 4181
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 8:31:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks, Lowpe. Pictures are indeed worth a thousand words. In this case, bringing life to an AAR.

The Indiana TF includes CL Cleveland, CAs Wichita, Quincy and Hawkins, and seven or eight DDs (none Fletchers). Night experience is mostly 60 to 70. All captains are good. Ching Lee and his 81 naval rating commands.

When John comes, I think he'll bring in CAs and DDs first followed by a massive BB TF. No matter how good the Indiana TF does it should be overwhelmed by sheer weight of numbers. But John may take enough lumps to dull the tip of his speer, and his ships should have to retire to replenish.

Fingers crossed.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/25/2016 9:33:34 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 8:46:35 PM   
zuluhour


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It has been rare in my games to see the big ships exchange pleasantries, I'm all ears.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 9:02:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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All detectable vibes suggest the naval battle will take place tonight. If so, I wonder if John will be able to withhold making a "spoiler" comment in his email. My guess is: No.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 9:24:18 PM   
JeffroK


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See post 3971, page 133
Not much really.

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/25/2016 9:31:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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No, 2977 on page 100 is the one about my night-bombing conversation with John (I quoted that post up above on this page).

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 4186
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 12:53:36 AM   
Canoerebel


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The first month on the trail, Clint had scouted around the wagons each night and never felt the least fear. Now, each night, he crouched low, paused often, and felt the skin on the back of his neck crawl. It was the eeriest of feelings to know the enemy was out there, out there in numbers, and could fall upon him at any moment, coming quickly and quiet like a red-tail upon a cottontail. Skin crawling on the back of the neck was the feeling of looming death.

2/17/43

Battle of Sumatra: To my surprise the Japanese did not come today. No combat TFs, no bombardment TFs, no sweeps. Instead, John posted the KB just west of Sabang (too close, in fact, as he lost eight Jakes that flew too close to the big base. And he flew big bombing missions against Langsa. I think the effort here is to flush the Allies from Sabang if possible. But there's to be no flushing now. There's no retreat from the Alamo. We stand and fight, win or die.

The RN CA TF has replenished and is ready to fight. It's a small TF - the Brit cruiser and a small RN DD and a smaller Dutch DD. But the presence of that third combat TF makes me feel a little better. After more thought, I decided to leave the Allied combat ships on patrol in port.

There are no more than 500 fighters at Sabang. In fact, there are enough that I may begin sending some of the F4Fs back to their parent carriers. Not yet. But perhaps soon.

The right amount of supply trickled out of Sabang to Langsa, so those troops are ready to go.

USN Subs: Whale picked off the xAP she damaged yesterday right off the coast of China.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4187
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 1:48:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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An hour ago, John sent an email that he was running the turn. He said it "should be exciting" (thanks for the spoiler). If the turn turns out good for him, or eventful but undecisive, I'd expect him to make a flurry of posts in his AAR within the hour.

Oddly, he sent an email last night indicating he would be running the turn shortly. I didn't hear from him during the night, nor until this morning's email. That's unusual for him. It would be contrary to his nature to go to bed without running a turn that he felt would be exciting. So that has me puzzled.

But I keep envisioning four TFs of IJN DDs coming into Sabang, causing the Allied TFs to shoot all their ammo. Then in come the cruisers. Then in come the battlewagons. The thought makes me nauseous.

But then I think about all those mines at Sabang and wonder what effect they might have, ranging from none to dramatic. Then I don't feel so nauseous.

But mostly, I feel pretty nauseous.

Let's see what happens.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 1:57:38 PM   
BBfanboy


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Mines that the enemy doesn't know about tend to catch a few ships in the first enemy TF to enter the area. After that, the enemy knows about the minefield and avoids it most of the time. I am not sure about the enemy detection/avoidance of multiple minefields in the same hex. In another thread Alfred posted that minefields are marked by the AI according to date laid and (IIRC) mine types. So if you laid the mines on different dates the AI could treat it as multiple minefields.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 1:59:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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Email just in from John: "I don’t usually send just the 001 but here it is. This will take me quite a while to do orders. It is a LONG turn!"

Usually I know from the email how the turn turned out (John is not very good at concealing his emotions. The lack of excitement here gives me some hope. But that may just be hope setting me up for a big disappointment.

I'm running the turn now. Back in an hour or so.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4190
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 2:54:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Very tough turn for the Allies, judging by the movie. But I don't have the turn file yet, so some things are yet unclear. Here's the nitty-gritty:

1. At least three IJN TFs come to Sabang, including a CL/DD TF, a big BB combat TF (three, I think Yamato, Nagato and Fuso), and then a bigger bombardment TF with five BBs. At least four Allied subs take shots at escorting DDs, without success and without slowing them down. The patrolling PT boats don't engage and thus don't slow them down.

2. The Yamato TF combat TF meets the Indian combat TF first. The Japanese cross the T. The combat is heavy and lasts a long, long time. Indiana is sunk. One IJ BB suffers "heavy fires, heavy damage" and another "heavy fires." Yamato escapes major damage. CL Agano is sunk as is an IJN DD. CAs Quincy and Wichita take heavy damage. Note that the Japanese did not bring heavy cruisers. Overall I think the Indiana TF handled this combat relatively well.

3. I lose track of things a bit after this - the IJN CL/DD TF and I think part of the Yamato TF then square off against the two remaining Allied TFs - one of three USN DDs and one of CA Dorsetshire and two small DDs. Japan gets the better of these clashes, sinking Dorsetshire and possibly a DD or two. I think the Allies sink a DD or two.

4. Then comes the big bombardment TF. Nothing much left to oppose them, though I think there is at least one "striking mine" sound. The bombardment is nuclear. I noticed that 29 F4Fs were destroyed on the ground. If that's representative, the losses must be very hight. At least one Japanese TF ended up two hexes from Sabang, but my TBFs, set to range two, didn't fly. So I think the airfield must be in bad shape.

5. In retiring, a bunch of TFs tangle again, most with spent ammo, but the Allies seem to get the worse for this too.

6. I don't know how badly the IJN BBs were damaged. I think one may go under (if "heavy fires/heavy damage" means what it used to). But John has alot to come back with. I'm hoping he has to repair to Singers to rearm, but he might have enough ammo left to come again tomorrow. I'm sure he'll bring whatever he has.

7. The Allies will have little if anything left to fight with at sea.

8. So this appears to be a pretty big Japanese victory. I'll report more when I've gone through the turn file.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 3:10:34 PM   
witpqs


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The replay produced the reports, so you can look at the combat report (just open/edit it).

I've found that even bombardments that were actually great get overstated in the animation and combat report. I do assume that your airfield is trashed, but usually the numbers of aircraft destroyed and damaged far exceed actual tallies, however bad those actual tallies are.

Sounds like Indiana kicked ass on her way out!

Good luck.

_____________________________


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 3:20:05 PM   
Mundy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Sounds like Indiana kicked ass on her way out!



Yeah, that other BB is probably toast.

If you don't use it, Combat Reporter is very handy for this. I use it mainly to feed my AAR, plus it's handy to look up a previous turn. It also catches some of those fleeting messages and help identify enemy ships which hit mines. It helped me learn which of my amphib ships tore their bottoms open on the beaches. I probably use it more than Tracker. Tracker's main function for me is to let me know when LCUs reach their destination.

_____________________________


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 3:24:42 PM   
BillBrown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mundy

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Sounds like Indiana kicked ass on her way out!



Yeah, that other BB is probably toast.

If you don't use it, Combat Reporter is very handy for this. I use it mainly to feed my AAR, plus it's handy to look up a previous turn. It also catches some of those fleeting messages and help identify enemy ships which hit mines. It helped me learn which of my amphib ships tore their bottoms open on the beaches. I probably use it more than Tracker. Tracker's main function for me is to let me know when LCUs reach their destination.


Completely agree with Mundy. Combat Reporter is great. It doesn't add any new information, but it organizes it really well so it is easier to sift through.

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 1/26/2016 4:26:05 PM >

(in reply to Mundy)
Post #: 4194
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 4:04:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/18/43

D+100: Today is the 100th day since Allied troops came ashore at Sabang. There were fireworks to celebrate. Both sides were bloodied. The Japanese inflicted potentially lethal blows to the Allies' ability to defend Sabang. And tomorrow is fraught with danger. Here's what I've seen.

Ships: The Allies lost Indiana, Quincy, Dorsetshire, and five small DDs (value range from 5 to 7). As best I can tell from the Intell Screen Ship Loss Points (which I think is usually completely accurate), Japan lost only about 50 points in shipping, though I'm not positive. I know CL Agano (40) points went down. I'm pretty sure that at least two 10-point DDs (good ones) went down - perhaps as many as four. I know a Japanese BB was damaged heavily, but the points total doesn't suggest she's gone down (yet). But Japan did lose four or five capital-ship aircraft. Agano might account for one or two of those. But I'm wondering about the others.

Impact: I don't think John suffered enough damage/losses to really blunt his bombardment capabilities. He can probably return with at least six of the eight BBs. He also has (I think) at least four CAs in theater. The big question is how quickly these ships can re-arm. If his ships can inflict more damage tomorrow things will be very bleak. The cobbled together defense at Sabang consists of CL Birmingham, DDs Isaac Sweers and Fortune, and a DMS. All are fully replenished. Birmingham has 20 Sys damage and shouldn't be committed, but I really have no choice. CA Wichita and CL Cleveland and some DDs are a hex or two north of Sabang. They are still in shape to fight (though modestly damaged) but need to return to Sabang to replenish and offer protection. If I was John, I'd send everything back and try to seal the deal.

Mines didn't do a thing! Just one exploded (959 are still there, one less than at the start of the day.

The airfield is in bad shape - 78 runway damage and about 56 airfield service. That's bad. Aircraft destroyed on the ground (according to the Intel Loss screen) was 145, though my count shows far less. Subject to the airfield allowing planes to fly, the Allies can put up about 260 fighters tomorrow. Again, were I John, I'd send everything I have now. So Allied AA had better lend more of a hand than the mines did.

The KB is just WNW of Sabang perhaps 10-12 hexes, blocking any reinforcement efforts. I have three crusier/DD TFs fanning out - just in case John moves his carriers in one direction, perhaps one of my TFs will have a window and route to sprint to Sabang.

On a postiive note, the bombardment barely touched supply and the ground troops.

SigInt the past three of four days consistently shows 19th Div. prepping for Sabang and aboard xAKs bound for Sibolga. This can only be one of two things: an invasion force ultimately bound for Sabang or John intends to use the jungle and yellow road to march up the west coast of Sumatra. The latter would take months, so I'd like to see it. An invasion will succeed if John has BBs present in number and unfettered access to the base. That's probably what he's seeking. He made substantial progress today, but he's not there.

What I really wish I knew was how much damage the IJN battlewagons took. If one was knocked out (or sunk), that's not such a great tally given what was expended in the effort. If three are knocked out of the campaign for a meaningful period of time, that would probably be a meaningful tradeoff. I'll know more when Yamato returns. I just hope that's not for five or six turns.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/26/2016 5:18:25 PM >

(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 4195
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 4:20:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Regarding Combat Reporter and similar things, I tried using them once (I think in my previous game vs. Panzerjager Hortlund). It was so clunky that I gave up.

I took a look at Intel Monkey a couple of weeks ago, but was daunted by the installation process or whatever it takes to get it where it can work.

I'm not computer savvy. I prefer using a pen and paper to glean nuggets from the info generated by the game. I would use a compilation program if doing so was effortless (no harder than looking at the combat report). But jumping through computer hoops wears me out.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4196
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 4:35:57 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
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From: Denver
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I was sort of afraid this might happen. One battleship simply is not enough against the entire IJN, and that is what you are facing here. And in game the BB rules the waves. Without strike aircraft he can now pummel you at will. Mines never seem to do much against BB bombardments.

FWIW, you have his complete, undivided attention at Sabang.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4197
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 4:40:14 PM   
witpqs


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Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
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CR, my thoughts, and first some info.

• The Intel screen Ships Sunk tally is only accurate for your own side. Enemy ships sunk is subject to heavy FOW. The same is true for Tracker (I know you don't imbibe it).
• "Ground losses" on the Intel screen Air Losses tally do seem to be accurate and somewhat of an FOW leak.
• It sounds to me like 1x BB gone and 1x BB to repair at Singapore for a long time. Possibly gone if the fires got out of control, but likely to make Singapore.
• That DMS is very valuable as an invasion convoy mine-sweeping escort but useless to defend Sabang. Get it the heck out of there.
• Although I do not know what John is planning and he certainly could bring in a direct Sabang invasion as you say, the Sibolga route is better IMO than you seem to think. He can sacrifice damage to some under-prepared unit to land at and take Sibolga, then land the unit preparing for Sabang in good order. He only has to traverse one hex distance without a road IIRC, which will likely take about 6 to 8 days without Allied harassment by air strikes. The road is secondary, so max of 15 miles per day after that but for high quality troops (which I assume he would bring to bear) they should make the entire journey pretty smartly. You have held Sabang for 100 days now via counter-invasion, why would he need to worry about a handful of weeks when it means crushing the forces invested by the Allies in Sabang and securing that flank?
• You might try some sub laid mines in shallow sea or coastal hexes that IJN bombardment TFs will transit. Chances of a hit are low but they are quite low at Sabang too. An invasion convoy landing troops at Sabang would have a good chance of hitting mines, though.
• Can you speed up one or more timetables for operations elsewhere?
• It sure would be nice to get those carrier groups out of Sabang now!
• I'm sure you are making KB dodge subs. Luck happens...
• Get your troops back to Sabang and adjacent defense-friendly terrain hexes before they get further trashed at Langsa.

Just some thoughts. YMMV.


_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4198
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 4:44:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I know what Japan lost now - CL Agano (35 points), two 10-point DDs, and one 7-point DD. I'll watch carefully the next few turns in hopes of seeing BB-type points added to that list.

Lecivius, yeah, Indiana was outgunned. My biggest hope was that mines would hurt some of the combat ships, then combat itself hurting others, and then a few TBFs (and/or subs) scoring hits afterwards. But it didn't work that way.

Next turn will be key, and John is doing that now (I think). If he closes the base by bombardment and/or bombing, then we enter a new phase of existence in which "end game" in Sumatra becomes a real possibility. If the Allies can nurse things along for a few days and kind of regain some equilibrium, then they've absorbed a powerful punch and are still standing.

Job one is to hold Sumatra at almost any cost. The IJN basically rules the seas in this area now, so that's seriously in jeapardy. Job two is to efficiently attrit the Japanese navy. This battle didn't really meet that objective, but the Allies remain very strong. The carriers, of course, are still in good shape.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/26/2016 5:52:49 PM >

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4199
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/26/2016 6:07:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Thanks, witpqs. Lots of good thoughts. A few aren't applicable for various reasons (for instance, John already controls Sibolga and the Allied troops at Langsa are in good shape and in jungle terrain). I do have subs scouring both sides of Sabang and hunting the KB. I think time is everything for John now. Marching from Sibolga should take a long time, especially if Allied bombers are operational. If they aren't - if the airfield is toast - then there were shorter ways for his troops to get to Sabang. So he's consigned them to a long march for nothing, I think. I can't speed up operations elsewhere - at least anything that would pose the kind of threat to John that would unsettle him. PP, carriers, carrier aircraft and available ground units are too low. But long-term is a different matter. (For that matter, I am employing a few small maskirovka's that probably have as much impact on John's psyche as anything I could credibly mount right now.)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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