tiemanjw
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Joined: 12/6/2008
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Sorry, but I think this is a fun discussion. You make several good points, but I'm still leaning toward Lowpe having the upper hand here. Lowpe has options and initiative, where has Jocke has to react... and he is doing it on the wrong side of the planet.
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It only matters because CONUS air units never lack supply to fly or take replacements. Also, every AF there can and should have been building since the first move with no pause.
I agree with you here. I think it would be a huge mistake for Lowpe to attempt some kind of extended campaign off SOCAL. But a 1 or 2 turn raid can cause issues and net a lot of VPs (not to mention a reaction from Jocke).
Also, even CONUSs infinite supply can't overcome the small allied fighter pools in '42. They are finite, and not very big.
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Search only matters if the Allies intend to surge CAP to and fro. Stipulating your numbers, the KB on a Full power run as you describe is expensive for Japan when fuel is at best at Pearl and damage accrues. And speaking as an AFB, again, I'd love for the KB to be somewhere SW of LA in this era and banging drums announcing that fact.
One day of full speed is not going to break the KB or bankrupt the empire. And again, Lowpe is playing for AV in '43. He has or will mortgage '45 to achieve this objective. And it is not that much of a logistical stretch to dump fuel into Pearl and move it forward in AOs. Sure he isn't going to be able to power run every day, but 1 day to sneak up on such a valuable target is definitely on the table.
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In my DBB game in mid-February I have 29 fighter units between Seattle, Portland, SF, LA, Prince Rupert, Vancouver, and San Diego. Of course, I had no PH refugees. I have 516 fighter-specialized pilots in Reserve, with a median experience of 52. I go into the sixth screen of the list with experience of 60 or more. Some are British or Aussie for sure; almost none are Dutch or Chinese. Eyeballing I'd say about 80% are either Army, Navy, or Marine.
So for a minute lets assume Jocke has 29 groups. I'm discounting the Pearl refugees because they won't start with any A/C and allied fighter pools are kind of tight in the first half of '42.
I'm also assuming (for now) that all of these 29 groups are flying CAP (and not training or doing assorted other tasks).
The average USA fighter group has 25 fighters.
Jocke says Coal Harbor is a size 3 right now. I'll assume Lowpe is building to a size 4 as that will enable full bomb loads for the 2Es. Lets keep it there for now, plus assume he dropped an air HQ in place.
That gives him about 100 2E bombers and 100 fighters without over stacking (and in this case, I would have no problem overstacking to a limited degree to bring in extra fighters).
He can also easily take Bella Bella (easy to build to size 4/5), Alliford Bay (can go up to size 7), and Annette Island (size 5 or 6 easy, 7 possible) among others further north. I'll leave these out for now.
Jocke would need to focus his fighter defenses on (escorted fighter coverage out to 10/11 easy, 14 possible):
Tacoma - 9 (shipyard, LI, resources)
Seattle - 9 (shipyard, industry, A/C factories)
Portland - 12 (shipyard, industry, resources)
Spokane - 11 (industry, resources)
Astoria - 10 (shipyard, resources)
Vancover - 5 (industry, shipyard, resources)
Victoria - 6 (industry, shipyard, resources)
Calgary - 14 (industry, oil, refinery, resources)
Edmonton - 13 from Bella Bella (Refinery, industry, oil, resources)
Coos Bay - 14 (resources)
he can't ignore (G3M3 Nell comes online 5/42, range of 26)
Butte - 16
Boisie - 17
Salt Lake - 26
the entire bay area 5 bases between 24-25
Assume 1 fighter unit in the bases he can't reach without escort, that leaves 26 more. He will need, I think, a minimum of 100 fighters in any given city to be able to prevent all but an all out attack there. Given the low number of units (yes, I don't think 29 is near enough), he can only do this at the most important targets. Say:
Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, and Vancouver. That's 16 more, down to 10.
Maybe you go a bit lighter on these defenses and just put 50 fighters there everywhere but Seattle. Back up to 16.
Even just having one unit at Spokane, Astoria, Victoria, and Calgary (leaving Edmondton and Coos Bay to their fate) drops us to 12.
12 Fighter Units left, and you still need to cover SF, LA, and SD. Put 1 at Mare island on LR CAP range 1. 11 left. 4 more for SF, 4 for LA, and 3 for SD. Done.
And who is training? (yes pilots in training can intercept bombers, but they are abysmal at it, so I'm not going to count them).
And 100 fighters is hardly a sure fire defense. He can send 100 fighters on sweep / escort. And his guys are better at this stage. He can overwhelm Seattle defenses with this setup (and feed in replacement groups he can stash around the Alaskan coast).
Any fighters you pull to your northern defenses, have to come from somewhere. Where... probably SOCAL.
But then LA is exposed to a KB raid. KB comes south and you defend LA or the Bay area more, you need to strip from Washington where he can threaten with LBA.
Oh, and what does the US fighter pools look like in spring of '42? All the supply and big bases in the world don't mean crap if your pools are empty. 1,000,000 90 skilled pilots doesn't give you anything either if there are no airframes left.
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All of them? A 70/30 ratio to Rest is pretty easy to keep up for months. These are mostly huge AFs with lots of support.
I have no problems keeping 100% CAP, range 0 forever. But who is training replacements for the future at this point?
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How many carriers did you have in 1944? Six? Depending on a number of factors the bomb loads between the two navies and eras can be different as well. As well as AA capability that ruins aims.
Currently I have 9 CVs, 5 CVLs (as some keep rotating back). About 900 A/C. I'm fighter heavy so call it 400 bombers - about 100 on scouting (yes I do a LOT of scouting). So about 300 bombers mission ready. I haven't done too much HI industry raiding with them, and when I did I split them between targets. Say 100 held back for naval attack, and about 100 per target. And it flattened the engine plants / airframe plants I went after (more so than I expected). They also pack a nasty wallop on an airfield (how big are your fighter pools again?).
In Spring of '42 the empire should be able to muster up:
Akagi
Kaga
Hiryu
Soryu
Shokaku
Zuikaku
Junyo
maybe Hiyo, plus
Ryujo
Shoho
Zuiho
Hosho
this gives him a 25 knot force - or 15 hexes over 24 hours. That means there is a small risk that he would get discovered standing off at 20-21 hex range, but if Jocke is searching the vast pacific coast from conus out to that range consistently, he has more PBYs than me.
Stock airwings for these include 189 zeros, 162 vals, and 192 kates (354 bombers).
Poo-poo it if you want, but that is potent strike force that can overwhelm LAs defenses and devastate the refinery.
If you think AA will save you, ask Lowpe how much AA he has in Tokyo, Osaka, Tsu, Gifu, etc. in '44. Probably more than you can muster in '42 considering all the bases you need to spread it around to (see above).
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Come on. He's operating from one base at Coal Harbor, at least initially. With 2E bombers. Supplied thorough one, tiny port. There is no organic supply generation for 2000 miles, and Pearl's is barely enough to keep the garrison eating and forts building.
what does it matter where his organic supply generation comes from. All that matters is what he has there. As to the port size, who cares? Even 100 naval support can empty a ship remarkably quick. I supplied the Hokkaido invasion (10 divisions) through a size 3-5 port (and about 400 naval support squads).
Pearl is irrelevant here. He is probably supporting this through Ominato (88 hexes). Pearl, BTW is 58 hexes. He may be staging through Adak if he has that. (By the way Jocke, have you considered a CV raid on the HI, coming back through the Ominato - Adak - Coal Harbor axis?)
I doubt he is having much supply trouble, though it is a vulnerability to his invasion, and thus could (should) be exploited.
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In my experience industry also has different levels of "hardness" to strat bombing. HI is fairly easy to hurt. LI much harder, I suppose to reflect dispersion. Bombing Resources? Good luck. They don't burn either. Nelson is 12 hexes away from his one AF. I'd say let him go for it.
I've noticed this too... his LI seems to resist bombing well. Makes sense to me. I haven't tried to hit resources, but I doubt they are impossible to hit (though perhaps very hard). But see above, are you going to defend Nelson? With what? Go small and he just sweeps and isolated fighter unit and destroys irreplaceable airframes. Go big, and you leave your zipper down somewhere else. So what if he only hits a few points a day. It all adds up.
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LA will have CAP and AA. A few hundred points? Hmm.
Sure, but that is CAP and AA not over Washington state... where it is desperately needed. I'm sure Jocke has the discipline not to just rush everything north, but as those precious airframes start to dwindle, are you going to keep 100 fighters over LA, and only 50 over Seattle? I doubt it.
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How exactly does he get a division there? Look at the map. And then how does he feed them?
Sorry, I kind of jumped a few steps here. I think Lowpe is foolish if he doesn't take Prince Rupert. I think he erred big time not taking it already. If it were me, I'd have an operation where I drop paratroopers at Terrace and drop 2-5 divisions on Prince Rupert. Then I'd march 1-2 divisions up to Terrace. Jocke is not prepared for it, it will work (though paras are easy to thwart if you prepare. Jocke NEEDs a Bn at Terrace yesterday and a Bde at Prince George.
If successful, Jocke could rail up US divisions to Prince George, then walk Terrace. Once there he will be forced to shock attack into the mountains. If Lowpe can get a division there first (which he should be able to do - again assuming a successful assault at Prince Rupert) this will be a bear and a half to dig out. Then you need to slow walk over the mountains to Prince Rupert only to find more divisions dug in in 3x terrain. Supply will flow just fine, but this is not a quick offensive.
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Rail armor to Prince George. Gray road to Terrace. Not a long time.
About 9 days to Prince George (including packing and unpacking), 5 days for an armor division to Terrance, 10 for an infantry. Total of about 2 -3 weeks.
If Lowpe attacks Prince Rupert and successfully para drops on Terrace, working backwards, 3 days to unpack (though not absolutely necessary), 1 day from Prince Rupert, 3 days to pack... or 1 week. That leaves him 1 week to secure the base. If he can secure it quickly (say 2 days after landing), he can even pursue your retreated forces into the mountains if they do that, and clear the hex if necessary. At any rate, worst case is he owns Prince Rupert. He can dig in while you march over the rail line there.
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Consult the manual on movement along railbeds when there is no road.
I'm well aware of it due to my campaign in the upper Malaya (Thailand portion of it). It is slow: armor moves at 5, infantry at 3 (by the way infantry moves at 3 through a clear hex and no roads). This is slower than yellow roads. It will take armor at least 19 days to march from Terrace to Prince Rupert. Infantry will take a month. That's on top of the 2 weeks to rail there. So it will take a month and a half before you can stage a credible counterattack.
Of course, you could rail a division or 2 in there now to be ready to fight in 2 weeks (if you haven't done it already... you are doing this, right?). And engineers. Given the USA emergency reinforcements (and I'm guessing Lowpe is lothe to invoke them), it is probably the most important piece of real estate in the game right now.
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So now it's 3 divisions?! Give him some phasors while you're at it.
He used what? 5 (or more at Pearl)? He doesn't need them in Alaska. So he can drop all 5 at PR if he wants. I was being generous to Jocke just saying 3.
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Again, supply, supply, supply.
Is it really that hard to supply PR? He can build the port, and in the mean time, a handful of naval support squads will do just fine. (I'm assuming the Japanese have naval support squads, or whatever the mods equivalent is, as it would be critical for Lowpes gambit to work).
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Not even close. This is perhaps the worst place for Japan to choose to fight in 1942. It's a show-offy move by Lowpe that is going to bite him in the behind in the end. I only hope he sticks around to take his medicine once that happens.
Lowpe is a standup guy... he took over the Japanese side in my game in mid '42. I haven't ever looked at the Japanese side, so I don't know how bad it was, but things weren't going well. He is still playing late in that game it what I can only assume is a dire situation. I don't think he'll bail.
But I also don't think it is just a "show-offy" move. I think it has real potential. I'd love to see the current "score sheet" here, but:
Pearl is worth 3000 points to the Japanese. The rest of Hawaii between 200-500 depending on how much he builds. He hasn't captured Manila yet I don't think. That's over 1000 more for him, and over 2000 less for Jocke. Alaska & Canada? Another 1000 - 2000 depending on how much he builds. Strat bombing, another 1000? 2000? I'm real curious about that one, but it seems reasonable.
So that's about 4000 points the typical Japanese player doesn't get. What do scores in '42 look like. It has been so long I honestly don't remember. Our score in our game is about 100k to 50k, but that is spring of '44.
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If Japan had B-29s, yes. Or even 4Es. They don't. Calgary now too? Look at the ranges here, man. And the time to reduce large cities with a couple of Betty squadrons, with supply shoved through an eyedropper. This isn't January, it's April. The USA gets a lot of hardware in the first summer. Coal Harbor is not exactly a safe haven from bombardment and Jocke has several very large naval bases a day's steaming from it. Your plan only works if Jocke goes away for six months. Why would he do that?
But Japan does have time (maybe, more in a bit). AV isn't possible until what? Dec 7 '42 or Jan 1 '43 (the manual says 365 days played, but only lists conditions for '43 through '46).
So he doesn't need to reduce it in a month. And I am looking at the ranges. And Jockes limited fighter units / pools and the number of potential targets. I agree that bombing Nelson's resources isn't the quickest way to AV, but... Does Jocke defend it? At what opportunity cost? Salt lake city? So he picks up a few points there.
If I were to suddenly be Lowpe for a bit here is what I would do:
Recon like crazy, everywhere that has and kind of industry within 26 hexes (plus LA and SD) working from the top down... I'd use Glen's for SOCAL if I don't have any A/C that can reach that far.
Once I have a picture of Jockes OOB (guns and fighters being most important), I'd start picking off targets. Jocke defends the big cities, I'll hit Nelson, SLC and the small places. Jocke has a choice... he lets me take it, or he tries to defend it. If he spreads his fighters out, I'll pick off the isolated units (25 fighters in Nelson now, ok sweep the crap out of it). Force Jocke to concentrate in a few areas... probably Seattle. Once Jocke settles on Seattle, I'll start nibbling at it. Use LRCAP to cover Tacoma and other places... fine LRCAP is weak. Heavy sweeps at the fringes. Occasional raid to Calgary / Edmonton to remind him he needs to defend there too. Don't defend, I take the VPs, defend, well, you have to take it from somewhere. Force you to concentrate even more. Now, all out A/F strike at the concentration. LBA and KB (and who says I need to use prewar pilots for this high risk mission).
Now what? Your fighters that do survive land on a effed up airfield and they are gone now too. Those that didn't get up are destroyed on the ground. Your pools suck. Even in late '42 you only get about 4 fighters / day. Mostly P40ks and F4F4s... and you only get about 450 F4s total (in '42) and 260 P40s (plus about what? 150 P38s). About 1000 fighters total (trickling in through the year - most after Oct - after I already have air superiority).
Sea-Tac can now be devastated. Portland - gone. And it opens up a possible raid on LA from the KB. Or, of course, I could just park the KB off SD. You can see it, but what are you going to do about it? Bye-bye SoPAC SLOC. Hello extra fighters and AA for SOCAL. Where do they come from? Seattle? Oh, wait, there are still 100 fighters and 100 bombers at Coal Harbor... Can't defend both. Plus SD. Plus SF. Heck, I don't even need to attack. I can wait until I wear you down in Washington (assuming I don't Blitz Seattle like above). Wait until you draw from SOCALs defense to replaces losses up north. Then hit the refinery. And they do burn.
I can also use glen's to scout the SLOCs to SOPAC. Bring the KB around and cause havoc. You'd never see it. Then cruise north and sit of SOCAL. See above.
I can also hit any port I want. Try gathering ships up for a counter invasion. Any ship concentration would be hit hard. Heck, a lot of those xAKs are worth 10 points each. He may well be able to net another 1000+ points destroying shipping (tankers, DDs, xAKs, all the crap that enters the game on the west coast is at risk).
And how do you defend against it? Sure B17s can bomb Coal Harbor. But he has taken more than just Coal Harbor. He just waits for repairs and flies back in. Your bombers are strong, but your bench isn't deep. They will die slowly from flak and CAP attacking Coal Harbor. And then, he finds your base, and brings the full, reinforced KB - nearly 200 fighters and 400 bombers and flattens the AF. All gone.
Counter invade? Where do you stage the ships? Prince Rupert, Portland, Sea-Tac, Vancouver are all under direct threat. Even if you got the ships there, they can (and probably will) be bombed. SF? It is a long trek to Coal Harbor. Overland? Except for Prince Rupert, good luck getting there, and good luck supplying it.
You could interdict his SLOCs. That may be your best course of action. Of course they are a long way away from any base, so you can only do it for short periods of time.
So you are left with needing to kill or otherwise neutralize the KB.
Maybe Lowpe will do it for you (send it to SOPAC for example)... but is that what you are counting on?
If he keeps the KB near north America, he:
can outnumber you anywhere along the Pacific coast, if only for a day
destroy any target he wants
prevent you from counter-invading and removing this festering wound
if he chooses, cut off your SLOCs to SOPAC
If you kill the KB:
You can cut his SLOCs without fear
outnumber him anywhere on the coast... as the moose says, you have all the supply and infrastructure you could want
provide CAP (LRCAP, CV cover) for amphib invasions to clean up what he has taken. end the threat to your industry.
advance through any vector you want and dance on Hokkaido before Christmas of '43
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The Solomons aren't worth much, no. But Rabaul is. Rangoon is. Noumea is. Suva is. Perth is. Japan has a lot of business elsewhere, not enjoying the eagles flying near Skagway. But the game is about decisions. Lowpe has made some. We shall see.
Can you get to Rabaul by January? Maybe. But not without supply and gas.
Rangoon? Maybe. But Burma is slow and Lowpe is fighting in India right now. Plus he is good at falling back. I doubt he'll get trapped in Calcutta. Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it.
Noumea, Suva - I thought you still owned them. Either way, yes, but is it enough? I have my doubts. Same with Perth.
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RE: Canada Invaded! - 
I just skimmed your post (will read it thoroughly tomorrow). Just a few quick pointers. 
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