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Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016)

 
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Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/5/2016 2:02:20 PM   
ziolo


Posts: 63
Joined: 3/27/2014
From: United Kingdom
Status: offline 		Considering current state of affairs in the Middle East it would be great if someone could develop a scenario for Saudi vs Iran full blown 2016 conflict (with US Navy in stand-by)...
Post #: 1
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/5/2016 2:06:52 PM   
Primarchx


Posts: 3102
Joined: 1/20/2013
Status: offline 		I've been playing around with this for a while, but without significant improvements to the Iranian OOB, it's just not a challenge. IMHO, the Saudis would tear Iran to pieces in a hot war, assuming a similar training level and competent political/military leadership.

ETA - not that I wouldn't play such a scenario, though.

< Message edited by Primarchx -- 1/5/2016 3:07:59 PM >

(in reply to ziolo)
Post #: 2
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/5/2016 2:31:18 PM   
VFA41_Lion


Posts: 228
Joined: 1/30/2014
Status: offline 		Isn't Iran taking delivery of S-300 systems? At the very least that's a decent air defense threat :p

< Message edited by VFA41_Lion -- 1/5/2016 3:31:37 PM >

(in reply to Primarchx)
Post #: 3
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/5/2016 2:32:52 PM   
ziolo


Posts: 63
Joined: 3/27/2014
From: United Kingdom
Status: offline 		Aye, asymmetric scenarios are nice

(in reply to Primarchx)
Post #: 4
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/5/2016 2:45:29 PM   
Primarchx


Posts: 3102
Joined: 1/20/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: VFA41_Lion

Isn't Iran taking delivery of S-300 systems? At the very least that's a decent air defense threat :p


That's been the rumor for decades. Haven't seen anything firm on this recently, though.

(in reply to VFA41_Lion)
Post #: 5
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/5/2016 9:16:28 PM   
Skjold

 

Posts: 240
Joined: 9/29/2015
Status: offline 		Yeah i was thinking about a potential war IRL and i came to the conclusion that Iran is in no position to fight Saudi Arabia. Becouse of the Persian Gulf any land based fighting would be impossible or at the very least fiction and in a pure air and naval fight saudi arabia should on paper wipe the floor with the Iranian AF and Navy. I think the only part Iranian would probably stand an chance is land combat especially since Saudis rely heavily on mercenaries with questionable loyalties as well as inner clan bickerings but wouldn't be that type of war.

You could still make a one sided scenario only meant to be played from the Saudi's perspective, could be fun.

< Message edited by Skjold -- 1/5/2016 10:17:01 PM >

_____________________________


(in reply to Primarchx)
Post #: 6
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 2:02:40 AM   
Vici Supreme

 

Posts: 558
Joined: 12/4/2013
From: Southern Germany
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Primarchx

That's been the rumor for decades. Haven't seen anything firm on this recently, though.

Umm?... http://www.janes.com/article/56900/iranian-s-300pmu-2s-to-be-delivered-by-september-2016

_____________________________


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Post #: 7
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 2:26:56 AM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Surface to Surface Missiles are asymmetrical. Iran has a lot, but I don't know their effectiveness vs current ballistic missile defense that the Saud's have at the ready.

Iran mining the strait and using the missile/gun/suicide boats, the same. The Saud's also have some vulnerable assets that would need significant protection to keep them operating.

US/Allied are in the area and under threat since the US has always had the goal of keeping the straits open. I suspect the US/Allies might react if their forces were hit. The trick for the Saudi side is to avoid drawing in the US for fear of Russians forces that also might get drawn in... That could be quite the campaign scenario regardless of whether the US and Russians want to avoid such.

Regardless of the real plausibility, I think it could make for an interesting few sessions of play.

Just a thought.
T Rav

(in reply to Vici Supreme)
Post #: 8
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 10:21:58 AM   
Zaslon

 

Posts: 283
Joined: 6/14/2015
Status: offline
quote:

...the Saudis would tear Iran to pieces in a hot war, assuming a similar training level and competent political/military leadership.


Do you watched Videos about Saudi Armed forces in the Yemen War?


< Message edited by Zaslon -- 1/6/2016 11:22:47 AM >

_____________________________


Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China

(in reply to Primarchx)
Post #: 9
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 12:03:51 PM   
Primarchx


Posts: 3102
Joined: 1/20/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Zaslon

quote:

...the Saudis would tear Iran to pieces in a hot war, assuming a similar training level and competent political/military leadership.


Do you watched Videos about Saudi Armed forces in the Yemen War?



I've missed those. Can you provide a link?

(in reply to Zaslon)
Post #: 10
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 12:05:06 PM   
Primarchx


Posts: 3102
Joined: 1/20/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Supreme 2.0


quote:

ORIGINAL: Primarchx

That's been the rumor for decades. Haven't seen anything firm on this recently, though.

Umm?... http://www.janes.com/article/56900/iranian-s-300pmu-2s-to-be-delivered-by-september-2016


Wow, that's like super recent. And not really official. Stuff like this has been flying around for years. Still, entirely possible given the current geopolitical climate these days.

(in reply to Vici Supreme)
Post #: 11
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 3:39:08 PM   
DrRansom

 

Posts: 167
Joined: 7/14/2013
Status: offline 		The problem with modeling this conflict is that the political and sociological issues, force quality and motivation, dominate any equipment / technological consideration. While reports from Yemen are hugely uncertainly, what videos do exist show Saudi armor forces operating in catastrophically poor fashion, e.g. IFVs with no infantry support, allowing dismounts to close within several dozen yards for RPG attacks.

Furthermore, we may note that fighting is still happening in Yemen, with Yemen engaging Saudi forces with ballistic missiles. From this, we can gather at the minimum:
- Saudi Air force has not suppressed ballistic missiles
- Saudi Ground forces have not engaged far enough into the country to defeat ballistic missile infrastructure

But we don't know if Yemen forces are suffering high losses, we don't know if they are doing anything other than surviving in coastal safe zones. Too much is uncertain to draw a precise picture.

With all this in mind, I don't think a CMANO scenario is worthwhile for Saudi Arabia vs. Iran. CMANO cannot model the population / insurgency / political dynamics which are most decisive in such a conflict.

(in reply to Primarchx)
Post #: 12
RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) - 1/6/2016 5:42:32 PM   
Zaslon

 

Posts: 283
Joined: 6/14/2015
Status: offline 		Some Primarchx

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyllGmyqYDk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0nDHV_mkiY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8ZTmtrl64o

There are some videos on youtube.

_____________________________


Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China

(in reply to Primarchx)
Post #: 13
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