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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches

 
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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 11:29:19 AM   
RangerJoe


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Yes, stop and think about it.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 11:55:12 AM   
Ian R

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

What about very short production runs lasting i.e. three months? Cany you receive 0 devices in month 1, 0 devices in month 2, and 18 devices in month 3?


Its a discrete RNG (die roll) each day. In theory, a string of low rolls can get you 31 in a 31 day month. The higher the build rate, the more likely the actual receipt rate will approximate it. Until you go a few over 30, at which point it's 1+ a die roll for a second each day.

There is a post by Alfred which explains this, but I don't know if you can search his posts anymore.

< Message edited by Ian R -- 11/27/2021 11:56:31 AM >


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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 1:05:03 PM   
Yaab


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Right, just checked device 849 (Soviet 85mm AA gun) for comparison. Build rate also of 6 guns per month. No guns used from thepool.

The code produced five guns in December 1941 on following turns:

5 (11 Dec)
6 (12 Dec)
9 (15 Dec)
13 (19 Dec)
16 (22 Dec)


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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 5:55:21 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

What about very short production runs lasting i.e. three months? Cany you receive 0 devices in month 1, 0 devices in month 2, and 18 devices in month 3?

Not as "carried over entitlement". You could only get 18 with freakish die roll luck giving you 3X the normal production rate in that single month.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 8:27:00 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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the 1st picture has differnt devices 1 of the sub units has 6 pounder A/T guns and will not recombine until they all have

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 9:11:37 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

the 1st picture has differnt devices 1 of the sub units has 6 pounder A/T guns and will not recombine until they all have


Unless that subunit is destroyed or disbanded.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 9:47:53 PM   
Nomad


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

the 1st picture has differnt devices 1 of the sub units has 6 pounder A/T guns and will not recombine until they all have


The picture showing 6 pounders is of the TOE, not the actual devices.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/27/2021 11:24:36 PM   
Ian R

 

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Also, as GSP pointed out earlier, the OP (in 2017!) didn't show a screen shot of the "C" element, but the tracker screen shot says it has the 3.7 jungle gun instead of the 3.7 mountain gun.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 7:58:50 AM   
Chris21wen

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

That sometimes happens, then you may get even more than the build rate. I think of a build rate of 6 for the month as a 6/30 chance of getting open in a day. If Alfred was here, he could probably have the part of the manual quoted or a thread link to refer to.


It's my belief it works this way. There are three systems:-
quote:

variable where there's a build rate up to the max, (0-6 in this case)

quote:

fixed for stuff that arrives by convoy

quote:

stuff that arrives via the armaments system (red build rates in the list) which is automatic. E.g. Like Japan


I can't find it as such but page 225 does meantion Build Rate/Replacement System?

However, as Alfred would say but probably not as politely, a little knowledge is dangerous.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 7:59:47 AM   
Chris21wen

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

That sometimes happens, then you may get even more than the build rate. I think of a build rate of 6 for the month as a 6/30 chance of getting open in a day. If Alfred was here, he could probably have the part of the manual quoted or a thread link to refer to.


It's my belief it works this way. There are three systems:-
variable where there's a build rate up to the max, (0-6 in this case)
fixed for stuff that arrives by convoy
quote:

stuff that arrives via the armaments system (red build rates in the list) which is automatic. E.g. Like Japan

I can't find it as such but page 225 does meantion Build Rate/Replacement System?

However, as Alfred would say but probably not as politely, a little knowledge is dangerous.



< Message edited by Chris21wen -- 11/28/2021 8:01:09 AM >

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 8:01:35 AM   
Chris21wen

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

That sometimes happens, then you may get even more than the build rate. I think of a build rate of 6 for the month as a 6/30 chance of getting open in a day. If Alfred was here, he could probably have the part of the manual quoted or a thread link to refer to.


It's my belief it works this way. There are three systems:-
variable where there's a build rate up to the max, (0-6 in this case)
fixed for stuff that arrives by convoy
stuff that arrives via the armaments system (red build rates in the list) which is automatic. E.g. Like Japan

I can't find it as such but page 225 does meantion Build Rate/Replacement System?

However, as Alfred would say but probably not as politely, a little knowledge is dangerous.

< Message edited by Chris21wen -- 11/28/2021 8:03:49 AM >

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 11:00:15 AM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Also, as GSP pointed out earlier, the OP (in 2017!) didn't show a screen shot of the "C" element, but the tracker screen shot says it has the 3.7 jungle gun instead of the 3.7 mountain gun.


The change from mountain guns to jungle guns is a TOE upgrade standard for many British and Commonwealth units.

Perhaps the game has progressed past the TOE upgrade date for the unit in question and the one with the jungle guns was put into rest mode at sometime, which facilitated the TOE upgrade.

If there is a zero in the TOE column under Soft stats for these units, they have reached and passed their TOE upgrade date and are subject to upgrading any time they are placed in rest mode where sufficient supply exists to facilitate the upgrade.

The OP should check for 3.7" jungle gun pool depth and if sufficient, place the other two sub units in rest mode at a base with adequate supply to see if they will also upgrade.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris21wen
However, as Alfred would say but probably not as politely, a little knowledge is dangerous.


We can only hope that Alfred decides to come back. The automatic assumption that he would return after a week suspension, made by the person who applied the suspension, may have been a bit naive.

Just because some one is allowed to return doesn't mean they will decide to.

Erik's imprudent action may have cost us the benefit of Alfred's knowledge forevermore.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 11/28/2021 11:08:22 AM >


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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 11:12:03 AM   
tolsdorff

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris21wen

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

That sometimes happens, then you may get even more than the build rate. I think of a build rate of 6 for the month as a 6/30 chance of getting open in a day. If Alfred was here, he could probably have the part of the manual quoted or a thread link to refer to.


It's my belief it works this way. There are three systems:-
variable where there's a build rate up to the max, (0-6 in this case)
fixed for stuff that arrives by convoy
stuff that arrives via the armaments system (red build rates in the list) which is automatic. E.g. Like Japan

I can't find it as such but page 225 does meantion Build Rate/Replacement System?

However, as Alfred would say but probably not as politely, a little knowledge is dangerous.


from a previous Alfred post which can be found here :

quote:

Ah, the value of a screenshot. Wish others with inflated egos which don't match their capabilities would similarly provide screenshots.

1. Regarding your dutch Militia squads, you have misunderstood the column heading. The Militia indeed were in production from Dec 1941 until the end of June 1942. This column you have understood correctly. The "In Pool" has no Militia in it, so currently there are no Militia squads to distribute to any units. What you are misunderstanding is the "Use So Far" column which has the number 42 in it. This column simply records that over the entire course of the game to date, 42 Militia squads have been distributed to units. It doesn't matter if those units which previously received Militia squads as replacements no longer exist on the map. What matter is that sometime in the past, it might have been January 1942, or April 1942, some Dutch units received Militia squads as replacements.

2. The Militia Squad "Build Rate" is 3. That doesn't mean that you are guaranteed every month (whilst the device was in production) to produce 3 per month. There are randoms involved so actual monthly production can vary. Usually when the build rate of any device is 10 or less, particularly when it is only 2 or 3, the odss are that the randoms will be negative quite often and the actual number created that month will be less than the quoted "Build Rate".

3. The difficult explanation is why does the "Produced This Month" column have the number 14. You could similarly question why the Rifle Squad and Cav Squad fields also have a positive number in them. Well, the real answer would require looking at your saved file and debugging it. There is no one around to do that. What I will say is that a similar phenomenon is found with obsolete squads of 6+ month expiry of other countries which don't have on map any units equipped with the obsolete squad. In short, it is a candidate for a visual bug where it seems the field records the aggregated production run of that squad. For game play purposes, it has no impact as what really matter is whether the "In Pool" column discloses any squads.

4. As to the "mighty" 31st Division. You need to check what it's current TOE is. If it's current TOE is the original game start TOE, you simply have to upgrade the TOE to its current entitlement. The TOE screen will tell you whether the upgrade is overdue or still scheduled for a future date. Once you have the latest TOE the squads will upgrade to the squad version specified in the TOE.


It is important to understand the difference between a TOE upgrade and a device upgrade. The latter is sequential. There is a detailed post on the subject from me made some years ago. If I have time tonight, I'll try to locate that thread.

Alfred



< Message edited by tolsdorff -- 11/28/2021 11:21:02 AM >

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 11:12:34 AM   
Zovs


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I have played war games since the 1970s and have done a fair bit of research, I have also played a lot of tactical war games, while I have heard and know why mountain guns were manufactured and used, I have never in 40 years seen or heard the tern “jungle guns”. There are howitzers, guns, and mountain gun guns but as far as I know this is the first time I heard a reference to “jungle guns”.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 11:27:17 AM   
Yaab


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tolsdorff, thanks for finding that Alfred post.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 12:44:52 PM   
btd64


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

I have played war games since the 1970s and have done a fair bit of research, I have also played a lot of tactical war games, while I have heard and know why mountain guns were manufactured and used, I have never in 40 years seen or heard the tern “jungle guns”. There are howitzers, guns, and mountain gun guns but as far as I know this is the first time I heard a reference to “jungle guns”.



"3.7 Jungle Gun" is how you will find it in the editor....GP

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 2:14:13 PM   
Ian R

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

I have played war games since the 1970s and have done a fair bit of research, I have also played a lot of tactical war games, while I have heard and know why mountain guns were manufactured and used, I have never in 40 years seen or heard the tern “jungle guns”. There are howitzers, guns, and mountain gun guns but as far as I know this is the first time I heard a reference to “jungle guns”.


The Ordnance QF 3.7-inch (94mm) Howitzer (the "mountain gun") was first fielded in 1917 and soldiered on until the 1960s. It broke down into several loads for mule/man packing ... and hence was also suitable for air lift, despite that never being in the original specification. It fired a 20lb projectile.

A replacement weapon was under development during the war, but was never fielded. Some American sourced 75mm pack howitzers were used in its place.

The Ordnance QF 25-pounder Short (87mm calibre) was a lightened version of the standard 25lbr, manufactured in Australia specifically for the (air portable) jungle division war establishment. Initially produced with a gun shield, the shield was later dispensed with. The gun broke down into about a dozen pieces for transport by air or on light vehicles. This weapon may be represented by the "jungle gun" in AE, where it appears in the Australian light infantry division war establishment.

Andymac may be able to shed some further light on this.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 3:47:18 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

I have played war games since the 1970s and have done a fair bit of research, I have also played a lot of tactical war games, while I have heard and know why mountain guns were manufactured and used, I have never in 40 years seen or heard the tern “jungle guns”. There are howitzers, guns, and mountain gun guns but as far as I know this is the first time I heard a reference to “jungle guns”.

I have always envisioned a Mountain gun being a relatively high angle weapon to shoot at enemy upslope and behind rock cover. But there was more fighting in jungle terrain which is limited by tree trunks and foliage. To get more direct fire from the gun, a different gun carriage with a lower angle range seems likely. I haven't found them to be any more or less effective than Mountain guns in either terrain type.

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 5:43:38 PM   
Yaab


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

from a previous Alfred post which can be found here :

2. The Militia Squad "Build Rate" is 3. That doesn't mean that you are guaranteed every month (whilst the device was in production) to produce 3 per month. There are randoms involved so actual monthly production can vary. Usually when the build rate of any device is 10 or less, particularly when it is only 2 or 3, the odss are that the randoms will be negative quite often and the actual number created that month will be less than the quoted "Build Rate".



Really? So my AIF, I.S.F, Chinese MMGs, Burmese and KNIL squads may not show up? All this while the Japs create squads on the fly?

< Message edited by Yaab -- 11/28/2021 5:44:59 PM >

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/28/2021 8:09:40 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

from a previous Alfred post which can be found here :

2. The Militia Squad "Build Rate" is 3. That doesn't mean that you are guaranteed every month (whilst the device was in production) to produce 3 per month. There are randoms involved so actual monthly production can vary. Usually when the build rate of any device is 10 or less, particularly when it is only 2 or 3, the odss are that the randoms will be negative quite often and the actual number created that month will be less than the quoted "Build Rate".



Really? So my AIF, I.S.F, Chinese MMGs, Burmese and KNIL squads may not show up? All this while the Japs create squads on the fly?


Yes. All that the Japanese have to do is send a postcard and they then have another soldier!

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/29/2021 7:20:59 AM   
Chris21wen

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

quote:

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

from a previous Alfred post which can be found here :

2. The Militia Squad "Build Rate" is 3. That doesn't mean that you are guaranteed every month (whilst the device was in production) to produce 3 per month. There are randoms involved so actual monthly production can vary. Usually when the build rate of any device is 10 or less, particularly when it is only 2 or 3, the odss are that the randoms will be negative quite often and the actual number created that month will be less than the quoted "Build Rate".



Really? So my AIF, I.S.F, Chinese MMGs, Burmese and KNIL squads may not show up? All this while the Japs create squads on the fly?


Remember this is build rate NOT what is received by the unit that depends on supply and die rolls. Section 16.4

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/29/2021 2:16:14 PM   
Yaab


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OK, just to wrap up this new(?) knowledge.

Devices. For the sake of simplicity, a month is 30 days.

Build rate 30. Chance 30/30 =100% thus each day 1 device is built.

Build rate 15. Chance 15/30 =50% thus each day 0 or 1 device can be built.

So if you are really unlucky with RNG, a build rate of 3, a 3/30 (10% chance) can give you 0 devices per month.

Does Allied aircraft production system work the same way or do we get a FIXED number of aircraft each month i.e 16 Wirraways per month?

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/29/2021 2:32:49 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

OK, just to wrap up this new(?) knowledge.

Devices. For the sake of simplicity, a month is 30 days.

Build rate 30. Chance 30/30 =100% thus each day 1 device is built.
Yes.
Build rate 15. Chance 15/30 =50% thus each day 0 or 1 device can be built.
Yes.
So if you are really unlucky with RNG, a build rate of 3, a 3/30 (10% chance) can give you 0 devices per month.
Yes.
Does Allied aircraft production system work the same way (Yes) or do we get a FIXED number of aircraft each month i.e 16 Wirraways per month?
No.


The only time you get a fixed amount of any devices is when the convoys and other units meant to disband arrive and then are disbanded.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 11/29/2021 2:44:13 PM >


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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/29/2021 6:26:06 PM   
rmeckman

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

OK, just to wrap up this new(?) knowledge.

Devices. For the sake of simplicity, a month is 30 days.

Build rate 30. Chance 30/30 =100% thus each day 1 device is built.

Build rate 15. Chance 15/30 =50% thus each day 0 or 1 device can be built.

So if you are really unlucky with RNG, a build rate of 3, a 3/30 (10% chance) can give you 0 devices per month.

Does Allied aircraft production system work the same way or do we get a FIXED number of aircraft each month i.e 16 Wirraways per month?


If the game coders had any statistical background, they would have used random draws from a Poisson distribution to generate the daily builds for devices/aircraft from the average monthly production rates. This is easy to do by linking a standard statistics library into the code and is more likely than the developers creating their own probability distribution from scratch.

With a Poisson distribution, the actual number of items built in a single month given an average rate of 3/month is usually going to fall between 0 and 6 items, with an outside chance of 7 or more. The specific probabilities are about 5% for 0 items, 15% for 1 item, 22% for 2 items, 22% for 3 items, 17% for 4 items, 10% for 5 items, 5% for 6 items, and 4% for 7 or more items. Over many months, the average production converges on the 3/month value. The other build rates have their own Poisson distributions.

I have a couple of other comments based on previous posts in this thread. The probability of items being produced on any given day is totally unaffected by what happened on previous days. The probability of items being produced on day 30 of the month is the same as on day 1, regardless of how many items were produced on days 1-29. Second, there is a chance of getting more than one item produced in a single day even at low production rates, assuming Poisson draws. Even with a 3/month production rate, there is a slight chance of getting 2 items in a single day. It will happen on average about one day every 7-8 months of game time.





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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/29/2021 7:00:40 PM   
Yaab


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

OK, just to wrap up this new(?) knowledge.

Devices. For the sake of simplicity, a month is 30 days.

Build rate 30. Chance 30/30 =100% thus each day 1 device is built.
Yes.
Build rate 15. Chance 15/30 =50% thus each day 0 or 1 device can be built.
Yes.
So if you are really unlucky with RNG, a build rate of 3, a 3/30 (10% chance) can give you 0 devices per month.
Yes.
Does Allied aircraft production system work the same way (Yes) or do we get a FIXED number of aircraft each month i.e 16 Wirraways per month?
No.


The only time you get a fixed amount of any devices is when the convoys and other units meant to disband arrive and then are disbanded.


Perfect! Pardon my obstinacy, but many years ago I internalised this fragment from the manual(p. 225)

When the Production System is on, the Allies are allowed certain on-map production of aircraft,supplies, and fuel along with having repair shipyards, but since most Allied material was goingto Europe, and most production was off-map, most Allied material arrives through the Build Rate/Replacement System (which brings items into the replacement pools on a regular basis from off-map areas) and daily automatic arrival of supplies and fuel in key rear area bases."

Thanks again for clearing this up!

< Message edited by Yaab -- 11/29/2021 7:01:31 PM >

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/29/2021 10:01:54 PM   
HansBolter


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So after the thread went completely off the rails has anyone made any effort to confirm what I pointed out?

Do the fragments with the mountain gun have a zero in the TOE column, while the one with the jungle gun does not because it was put into rest mode and underwent the TOE upgrade that the other two fragments have not?

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RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/30/2021 4:38:48 AM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

OK, just to wrap up this new(?) knowledge.

Devices. For the sake of simplicity, a month is 30 days.

Build rate 30. Chance 30/30 =100% thus each day 1 device is built.
Yes.
Build rate 15. Chance 15/30 =50% thus each day 0 or 1 device can be built.
Yes.
So if you are really unlucky with RNG, a build rate of 3, a 3/30 (10% chance) can give you 0 devices per month.
Yes.
Does Allied aircraft production system work the same way (Yes) or do we get a FIXED number of aircraft each month i.e 16 Wirraways per month?
No.


The only time you get a fixed amount of any devices is when the convoys and other units meant to disband arrive and then are disbanded.


Perfect! Pardon my obstinacy, but many years ago I internalised this fragment from the manual(p. 225)
You are Polish, I understand your obstinance.

When the Production System is on, the Allies are allowed certain on-map production of aircraft,supplies, and fuel along with having repair shipyards, but since most Allied material was goingto Europe, and most production was off-map, most Allied material arrives through the Build Rate/Replacement System (which brings items into the replacement pools on a regular basis from off-map areas) and daily automatic arrival of supplies and fuel in key rear area bases."

Thanks again for clearing this up!


You are welcome.

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(in reply to Yaab)
Post #: 57
RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/30/2021 7:05:50 AM   
Chris21wen

 

Posts: 6249
Joined: 1/17/2002
From: Cottesmore, Rutland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

So after the thread went completely off the rails has anyone made any effort to confirm what I pointed out?

Do the fragments with the mountain gun have a zero in the TOE column, while the one with the jungle gun does not because it was put into rest mode and underwent the TOE upgrade that the other two fragments have not?


This from memory and may well be wrong but I don't remember ever seeing fragments upgrade their elements. When fragments rejoin their parent then whatever is in the fragment joins as well and will then upgrade if stuff is avaiable.

When it comes to TOE upgrades I also cannot remember ever seeing a fragmented unit change it's TOE. They can't as a fragmented unit has it's own temporary unit ID created when formed. The parent still can but the above aplies to fragments.

This is all different for offical subunits eg. into A/B/C etc. These do have a full TOE and can upgrade devices individually. These are the ones you want to turn off as any diffenence between them prevents recombining.

A TOE upgrade does not automatically upgrade elements, all it does is change what it should have, keeping what it does have and listing both. With supply, old elements are replaced and disappear from the list immediately if there's enough in the pools to do so, otherwise you wait. Oh! and TOE upgrades don't need supply, just to be in range of a Command HQ.

Hope this helps and not complete crap.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 58
RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/30/2021 7:09:01 AM   
Chris21wen

 

Posts: 6249
Joined: 1/17/2002
From: Cottesmore, Rutland
Status: offline
I forgot to added the unit disband option for fragments but I think supply plays a part here as well.

(in reply to Chris21wen)
Post #: 59
RE: Reconciling LCU Device Mismatches - 11/30/2021 1:00:20 PM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline
Here's an example in my current game




Attachment (1)

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(in reply to Chris21wen)
Post #: 60
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