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RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/12/2019 8:20:31 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

The problem is if I wait the allies could concentrate too.


Yup, given the opportunity I'd jump on day one and take the losses. KB LRCAP does sound like a sound tactic.


Cheers rusty
My thoughts too. I adjusted Plan A last night to put all 6 CVs back together to arrive off Malaya on day 1.
I’m preparing for a short and sharp fireworks display if Force Z sorties to cover Mersing, but if it doesn’t then I will have more air power to flatten allied air forces at Singapore.
I got through all ship orders last night except submarines.
I still need to do air orders before tying a bow around turn 1 and getting it to the courier.


< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/12/2019 8:21:18 PM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 61
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/12/2019 8:28:25 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

Set Maebashi & Gifu to 10k+ as they have more factories to expand on turn 2.


Careful, I think one of these cities will experience 'spoilage' as its base is too small to have that much supply. I like to build up the base before hand. Its not much loss, but as Japan I don't like to 'waste' supply. Of course its your call. I just wanted you to be aware in case you weren't.


Yes, either or both spoil until an engineer unit can get there to build a port or airfield point.
Pretty sure I calculated the spoilage once and it is a small price in supply to pay for a short duration compared to having industry repair or not.
But thanks for the reminder, I’ll find some ginger beers to send there to start work.

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 62
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/12/2019 8:44:06 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

China have decent starting supply stockpiles


Heavy ops, and modest industry expansion will quickly exhaust these in China. You may need to bring in modest resup convoys from day one. I do, as I've found in my games that I've run low on supplies in the region. For me its generally 2 or 3 convoys of about 10-15k. Of course those convoys return with resources, which help alleviate the deficit in the HI until the big guys get running.


I’ve come up with some forecasts for supply use in each region after trying to “nail this jelly” as someone called it months ago!
Based on a whole bunch of assumptions, and a bunch more I dealt with just by doubling what I calculated, my estimate is 6000 supply per day export from Japan to China to sustain ops. That’s a big proportion of the 20k supply “excess” each day.
I started this convoy in my last AI game to move on a return 25k-ish capacity resources CS convoy to Fusan.
I didn’t start running low on supply in China until about March 42 so started he convoy as soon as I saw the first yellow exclamation mark.
I got to about Oct 42 before starting this game but it swaps working with no supply warnings during that period.

If I was to spend lots of supply expanding HI/LI in China then I’d run out of supply for ops even quicker, so while I’m still pondering it I don’t think I will do it.

What to do with the available supply is one of the big questions for Japan, as just like fuel the excess doesn’t last for long and it needs to be spent on what you choose as the priorities.

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 63
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/12/2019 8:52:15 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		Double post

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/14/2019 10:32:13 PM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
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Post #: 64
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/12/2019 9:07:07 PM   
Uncivil Engineer

 

Posts: 1014
Joined: 2/22/2012
From: Florida, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

China have decent starting supply stockpiles


Heavy ops, and modest industry expansion will quickly exhaust these in China. You may need to bring in modest resup convoys from day one. I do, as I've found in my games that I've run low on supplies in the region. For me its generally 2 or 3 convoys of about 10-15k. Of course those convoys return with resources, which help alleviate the deficit in the HI until the big guys get running.


I’ve come up with some forecasts for supply use in each region after trying to “nail this jelly” as someone called it months ago!
Based on a whole bunch of assumptions, and a bunch more I dealt with just by doubling what I calculated, my estimate is 6000 supply per day export from Japan to China to sustain ops. That’s a big proportion of the 20k supply “excess” each day.
I started this convoy in my last AI game to move on a return 25k-ish capacity resources CS convoy to Fusan.
I didn’t start running low on supply in China until about March 42 so started he convoy as soon as I saw the first yellow exclamation mark.
I got to about Oct 42 before starting this game but it swaps working with no supply warnings during that period.

If I was to spend lots of supply expanding HI/LI in China then I’d run out of supply for ops even quicker, so while I’m still pondering it I don’t think I will do it.

What to do with the available supply is one of the big questions for Japan, as just like fuel the excess doesn’t last for long and it needs to be spent on what you choose as the priorities.


There is no 20k supply excess - all 20k plus much more will be consumed by industry - 1k for each engine factory expansion, 1k for each aircraft factory expansion, 1k for each engine or aircraft research expansion, 1k for each vehicle factory expansion, 1k for every repair shipyard expansion, etc. And more to fill out the TOE of all the units on Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. I, too, like to send some supply to China and return resource, but you can't overdo it.


(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 65
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/12/2019 9:10:15 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

I’ve never invested supply into HI or LI expansion before. I’ll ponder that today at work. As HI has a 500 day payback it might get some, but LI I don’t think so. GEN Hata will be needing a lot of supply for China ops now, not in 1000 days time. And if I haven’t won before day 1000 I don’t think a little bit more supply will save me...


Ah, very short sighted, Jimsan.

Big picture...

Each 'local' (NRA, Korea, Manchukuo, China, Formosa) region has a surplus of resources, and the HI has a deficit. There're are enough resources in the local area to offset the home deficit, and then some. Find the needs and expand the industries in the local areas to absorb the remaining surplus resources. I've done it roughly, and made some notes, which I've no idea of where they are now. Need to find them before my next game.

This will produce some more supply in these local regions for local consumption, and possibly some for export. Cheaper to transport supply. Saving fuel your main need.

Tah dah.


Still pondering this, thanks War Ministry Staff!
It is a feasible option that warrants further investigation, but I keep coming back to a few things:
1. the Return on Investment. HI takes 500 days to turn a profit and LI 1000 days, and only one point repairs per day taking more time.
2. Other higher priorities for supply use during the first few months are expansion of aircraft and engines and supporting operations in China, and Burma which is a big supply eater.
3. More HI would burn more fuel, taking it away from the fleet. That would be justified if more HI points were needed to make stuff. But my war machine production plan is geared to when I think I will capture allied HI around the map (and when I think I will lose it!) and more HI points isn’t a high priority for me. I am probably planning to make more aircraft than I can train pilots for as it is anyway.
4. So that leaves the question of LI expansion. Points 1 and 2 above answer this for me, due to the 1000 day ROI every day of delay due to other priorities make this less worthwhile.

I have a few after work Friday beers this evening, so I hope I don’t wake up tomorrow to find I changed my mind at the pub and ordered a massive HI/LI expansion!


< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/12/2019 9:35:52 PM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 66
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/13/2019 3:42:35 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		I agree, excess is not the right word.
About 20k/day supply is produced in the Japan Economic Zone if all starting industry is producing at max output.
While there is a large starting supply stockpile, I will spend most of that on industry expansion and not much will be exported until the industry expansion use stabilises.
For the supply stockpile to start growing again in Japan, the player needs to spend or export less than 20k/day at some point.
That date for me won’t happen until about March 1942, but the benefit is that industry will be geared up and running by then.


_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to Uncivil Engineer)
Post #: 67
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/13/2019 6:13:05 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

Armament factories – turned off repairs. Swapped 180 to vehicle factories to leave 440.


Oh, that doesn't sound like a good idea. I'd leave the armaments factories alone. I might shut some off later for various reasons, but you're gonna need all 620, and possibly then some, for the 'end game'. Losses will be high, and you'll need all the devices you can get. Remember swapping these sites out, they start 'damaged' and need to repair. That's 180k supply. Better spent elsewhere.

quote:

Vehicle factories – expand all that start to size 40, plus 180 from armaments for 420 total vehicle factories.


I think this is faulty as well. Yes, gradually expand all Veh sites to 40, but that's it. The 420 total seems way too high. Don't know what you did to think you need this much, but... At 250 (I'll stop at 240 in my next game) I have 52K+ plus Veh points in Jun '43, and I've upgraded all to the best current tank, except for a few regiments in China where they don't need to be the 'best'.

BTW I've got that 52k Veh points and now have 125 points in Veh turned off for quite some time. Again I believe I'll need the rest for the 'end game'.

If you don't believe me go the the general section and post a thread as to what others think. I say this because not all may be reading this AAR.


These were faulty, thanks for challenging.
I reviewed my spreadsheet and this is the revised plan for Armament and Vehicle factories:

• Armament factories – turned off repairs.
Swapped 20 to vehicle factories and switched off 160 to leave 440 producing.
This is based on the attached forecast for armaments use which shows armament points required for new land combat units only, excluding device upgrades and combat losses.
This graph shows the production curve for 380 Armaments factories.
I will use the additional 60 armaments points above the 380 shown on this graph to cover device upgrades and replace combat losses.
I will monitor this pool monthly to check if I am over or under producing.
The data I gather from this PBEM game will inform my next one (if any!).





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/13/2019 6:15:22 AM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 68
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/13/2019 6:18:48 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		Revised Vehicle factory numbers.

• Vehicle factories – expand all that start to size 40, plus 20 converted from armaments for 260 total vehicle factories.
This is based on the attached forecast for vehicle use but similar to armaments, this graph shows the vehicle points needed for new units only.
It does not include tank upgrades or replacement of combat losses, so I will also monitor this pool vs forecast on a monthly basis.
This graph shows the production curve for 220 vehicle factories which provides no room for upgrades or combat losses, so I will bump up to 260.
The plan is to keep the tank units in combat through 1942 and beyond, so I am expecting to have to replace quite a few losses.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/13/2019 6:19:23 AM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 69
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/14/2019 1:44:08 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		I just sent Turn 1.
It will be about a week or so until I see what I forgot or what I need to do better next time!


_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 70
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/15/2019 4:53:19 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		7 Dec 41 Orders
Chief of the Army General Staff

• General Defence Army: GEN Sugiyama. All Japan based armies will train new Divisions to deploy forward as political points allow. No replacements or upgrades to ground units for now to save on supply, except those units readying to deploy. All AA Regiments (about 20 of them) will be bought out and deployed forward to protect major oil fields and other strategic infrastructure like repair shipyards. All six “Infantry Group” units that start in Japan will be bought out when PP allow. They will be formed into full Divisions in their assigned Area Army locations once the additional components arrive and are also bought out.
• Northern Army, Sapporo: LGEN Hamamoto will be replaced by a GEN but this is low priority. 7th Division will be left as the core of the Hokkaido garrison force.
• Eastern Army, Tokyo: GEN Tanaka. 52nd Division will be bought out when PP allow, most likely move is to Burma.
• Central Army, moving to Hiroshima: LGEN Fujii will be replaced by a GEN but this is low priority. 53rd and 54th Divisions will be bought out, most likely move is to Burma.
• Western Army, Nagasaki: GEN Fukie.
• 1st Air Div: Training force for brand new recruits initially.
• Formosa Army, Takao: Gen Ando.

• Kwangtung Army: GEN Umezu. 20th Army will move to China. All engineers will move to Fusan. All Artillery and Armour, most AA to move to China. Low numbered Divisions will move to China. GEN Umezu isn’t happy, but he was reminded that he only needs 8000+ AV to deter the Soviets, he doesn’t need his current 11450 AV or A grade Divisions to man border forts.
• 3rd Army: defend Yenki border
• 5th Army: defend Mishan border
• 4th Army: defend Sunwu border
• 6th Army: defend Hailar border
• 2nd Air Div: Training force for brand new recruits.
• 20th Army: transfer to NCAA to capture Chengchow/Loyang
• Korea Army: GEN Itagaki. Training and garrison force. Transfer Infantry to China including 90th Infantry Regiment to save the PP rather than buying it out then sending it back to Manchukuo to reform as a Division late war.

• China Expeditionary Army: GEN Hata. Conquer China
• North China Area Army: GEN Okamura. Capture Chengchow/Loyang and prepare for Sian
• 1st Army: Clear NE of Taiyuan and support 12th Army to the south
• 12th Army: Capture Chengchow / Loyang.
• 20th Army: transferred from KA to NCAA to capture Chengchow/Loyang and beyond
• Mongol Garrison Army. Clear Mongolia then do what the name says on the tin
• NCPC Army. Garrison NCAA rear areas.
• 6th Area Army
• 11th Army: Clear vic Wuchang/Hankow. Defend Ichang and Sinyang.
• 13th Army: Capture Wenchow and clear eastern China to the Changsha-Kukong railway.
• 23rd Army: Capture Hong Kong then consolidate China coast.
• RGC Army: Garrison 6th Area Army rear areas

• Southern Expeditionary Army: GEN Terauchi. Capture Singapore as the main effort in Stage 1.
• 14th Army: Capture Manila then clear Luzon. Main force for Java in stage 2.
• 25th Army: Capture Singapore then clear Malaya.
• 16th Army: Capture Palembang then clear Sumatra.
• 15th Army: Capture Rangoon then clear Burma.
• Royal Thai Army: Garrison against partisans plus the railway cities in Thailand
• 3rd Air Div: Malaya main effort, Burma/Thailand secondary until Singapore is captured
• 5th Air Div: Luzon main effort then support subsequent Java operations

• Pilot Training IJA:
• All starting pilots in 1st and 2nd Air Divisions with experience above 50 were moved to the General Reserve pool with new recruits drafted in. All 1st and 2nd Division air groups (except for a couple that start on Formosa) are set to training 100%, range 0.
• Those General Reserve pilots were nearly all used to fill out 3rd and 5th Air Division units for front line service.
• Airgroups in China (13th Air Division) will generally be used to develop 50+ experience pilots until they reach 70+ experience. At 70+ experience the pilots will move back to the General Reserve pool so that they are available as replacements for front line squadrons in 3rd and 5th Air Divisions.







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/15/2019 5:51:01 AM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 71
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/15/2019 5:49:26 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		7 Dec 41 Orders
Chief of the Navy General Staff

• Combined Fleet: ADM Yamamoto
• Task Forces will be reorganised after the opening few days of operations for short-term assignment to numbered Fleets for the duration of specific operations. Standing IJN task forces will be formed with commanders permanently assigned to include the following for most of 1942:
• Mobile Force
• 1 x CV Task Force (heavy armoured) with 2 x BB Kongo and DD escorts
• 1 x CV Task Force (light armoured) with 2 x BB Kongo and DD escorts
• 1 x CVL Task Force with DD escorts
• 1 x CVE Task Force with DD escorts
• Battle Force
• 3 x BB Task Forces with DD escorts
• 7 x CA Task Forces with DD escorts
• 7 x CL Task Forces with DD escorts
• Special Naval Landing Force
• 4 x Amphibious Task Forces with CL flagships, APD/DMS escorts and AK/AK-t transports

• 1st Fleet. Kure, Home Defence Fleet. Mainly ASW and local patrol forces. After the DEI is captured I will try to keep a reserve reaction force in or near home waters.
• Kure, as the main fleet base with numerous naval support squads will be the primary repair and capital ship upgrade facility
• 11th Air Flotilla. Yokosuka, training force. Active naval search with Mavis. FP units will become active once they are resized to 24 and trained in both Naval Search and ASW.
• 12th Air Flotilla. Oita, training force. HQ temporarily relocated to Ominato to provide torpedoes to protect against an allied raid on Hokkaido. Active naval search with Mavis deployed forward to Takao to support Luzon operations. FP units will become active once they are resized to 24 and trained in Naval Search and ASW.

• China Area Fleet: VADM Koga. ASW and patrol force.
• Shanghai as a P7 can rearm BB Nagato, with 283 naval support squads it can also rearm BB Yamato
• FP units will become active once they are resized to 24 and trained in Naval Search and ASW
• DB/TB units will be resized if they can and train in their primary skills plus ASW to support ASW operations.

• Southwest Area Fleet: It arrives at Soerabaja in early 1942, but will move to Singapore.
• Cam Ranh Bay can rearm CV and CA as a P5 with 342 naval support squads, but no BB without more naval support. Once HQ 2nd Fleet arrives CRB will rearm all but BB Nagato.
• Singapore as a P9 will rearm everything once it is captured, the allied mines cleared and port repaired.
• 2nd Fleet: Move to Cam Ranh Bay from Samah asap, support 25th Army operations on Malaya. Once Singapore is captured it will move to Singapore.
• 21st Air Flotilla: Takao, support 14th Army operations on Luzon then move to SWAF.

• Southern Area Fleet: VADM Ozawa. Cam Ranh Bay, support 25th Army operations on Malaya as the main effort, Luzon secondary. Once Manila is captured and CRB reaches P7, this HQ will move to Manila to support operations in the Celebes and Java.
• Takao can rearm all but BB Nagato as a P4 with 490 naval support.
• Babeldoab is technically in SEAF but is the closest fleet base to support IJN operations in the Celebes. As a P3 with 118 naval support it can rearm CA and smaller main guns, plus the AD can rearm DD torpedos. I don’t think CA torpedos can be rearmed at Babeldoab, so I will move AKE Kashino here to support IJN operations in the Celebes
• AKE Kashino can rearm all but BB Nagato and above in any Port. It is the only starting AKE so is a critical asset that must be protected. I will later move it east to create an alternative rearming port other than Truk, probably to Saipan.
• Once captured, Manila as a P5 will be expanded to P7 with 188+ naval support to be able to rearm BB Yamato.
• 3rd Fleet: Takao, support 14th Army operations on Luzon then move to Manila to support Stage 2 operations further south.
• 22nd Air Flotilla: Saigon, cover the South China Sea, then move to Singkawang to support operations on Sumatra and then Java. It will likely move to Java after Singkawang.

• Southeast Area Fleet: VADM Kusaka.
• 11th Air Fleet: Takao, will move to SEAF to cover the Central Pacific as soon as the 5th Air Division takes control of the skies over Luzon. Truk is the most likely destination.
• 23rd Air Flotilla: Takao, will move to SEAF as soon as the 5th Air Division takes control of the skies over Luzon. Truk most likely initially to prepare for Rabaul, but if I detect that the USN has sortied west this HQ may move to Babeldoab or Hollandia instead.

• 4th Fleet (Central Pacific Area Fleet): VADM Inouye. Starts at Truk, but will move to Saipan once Truk reaches P7 and can rearm CVs without Naval Support squads having to be there.
• 6th Fleet. Kwajalein, supporting submarine operations and a delaying defence. This HQ will move to Saipan when the Marshalls become untenable.
• 24th Air Flotilla. Kwajalein, delay defence. This HQ will also move west when the Marshalls become untenable.

• Northeast Area Fleet (5th Fleet): VADM Hosogaya. Ominato, move to Hakodate to add to the capabilities of the port and repair shipyard.

• Strategic Logistics Fleet. General reorganisation of ships to home ports where convoys will be formed.
• Oil convoys – start to organise convoy task forces. Large TK will reorganise to safe ports until oil sources are captured, eg: large TK that start at CRB will move to Samah until oil fields are captured, just in case the allies send a raid to hit CRB.
• Resources convoys – start to organise convoy task forces. The first Resources convoys will start within days from Hokkaido and Korea.
• Fuel convoys – start to organise convoy task forces. Large TK will reorganise to safe ports until fuel sources are captured.
• Supply convoys – I will minimise export from Japan for the first few months until the industry expansion use starts to stabilise. The starting supply stockpiles at places like Takao and Saigon are the supply budgets that 14th and 25th Armies have to capture their Stage 1 objectives with. Once Miri is secure, about 40k supply per month will move there for a few months to help with Oil repairs plus port and airfield construction.

• Pilot Training IJN:
• All starting pilots in 12th Air Flotilla with experience above 50 were moved to the General Reserve pool with new recruits drafted in to replace them. All 12th Air Flotilla air groups (except for Mavis groups) are set to training 100%, range 0.
• Those General Reserve pilots were nearly all used to fill out 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th Air Flotilla units for front line service.
• Land based air groups will generally be used to develop 50+ experience pilots until they reach 70+ experience. At 70+ experience the pilots will move back to the General Reserve pool so that they are available as replacements for carrier based air groups as the top priority, with front line land based groups second priority.
• Set all training units to train and fillout with trainees.
• I started my large ASW FP force (Jake) expansion program to resize as many land based and [Name]-2 FP air groups to 24 capacity using CS Chiyoda. All [Name]-1 FP air groups will resize to maximum allowed on their assigned ship. Submarines will keep Glens and not Jakes.
• I will also resize at least one home based F, DB and TB IJNAF training group to size 81 using CV Akagi to help ramp up the F, DB and TB training program.

In summary, the IJN will start with the lead role in NEAF, 4th Fleet and SEAF areas of operation, but will perform a supporting role to the Army in all other areas.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/15/2019 5:52:28 AM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 72
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/15/2019 11:30:13 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		If you have extra Jake groups, maybe train some in low Naval attack as well. They do work against DDs and other non armored targets. Plus, it gives you CS task forces a little punch in the convoy raiding role as well.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 73
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/15/2019 9:12:54 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you have extra Jake groups, maybe train some in low Naval attack as well. They do work against DDs and other non armored targets. Plus, it gives you CS task forces a little punch in the convoy raiding role as well.


Last game vs AI, I did train LN as the third skill after NS and ASW for new FP pilots.
This game I’m thinking about training some CAP as the third skill for some groups to improve defensive skill and also use the FP groups in that role vs unescorted 4E bombers in rear areas. I will have about 50 size 24 FP groups flying Jakes by mid 1942. They could be used as an extra 1000 “fighters”.

I think I’ll train the FP groups for the eastern Pacific in LN as their third skill, but FP groups over industry in CAP as their third skill.

Once they finish training, the plan is to split each FP group into thirds so it flies day NS, night NS and day ASW.
Each FP group will be supported by an AV, with an AG to support a SC Div from the same base.

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 74
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/15/2019 9:18:04 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you have extra Jake groups, maybe train some in low Naval attack as well. They do work against DDs and other non armored targets. Plus, it gives you CS task forces a little punch in the convoy raiding role as well.


Last game vs AI, I did train LN as the third skill after NS and ASW for new FP pilots.
This game I’m thinking about training some CAP as the third skill for some groups to improve defensive skill and also use the FP groups in that role vs unescorted 4E bombers in rear areas. I will have about 50 size 24 FP groups flying Jakes by mid 1942. They could be used as an extra 1000 “fighters”.

I think I’ll train the FP groups for the eastern Pacific in LN as their third skill, but FP groups over industry in CAP as their third skill.

Once they finish training, the plan is to split each FP group into thirds so it flies day NS, night NS and day ASW.
Each FP group will be supported by an AV, with an AG to support a SC Div from the same base.


And an ACM to maintain the minefields for visiting submarines? Keep the SC ASW TF on coastal until they get better depth charges.

BTW, a 100 lb bomb put 1 float and 48 system damage to an I-boat. So don't knock the little bombs.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 75
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/15/2019 11:47:43 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		I updated my “small ships” plan last night and will post the table here this evening, to show ship classes and numbers assigned to each of the 4 x Naval Districts in the home islands plus the 6 x Area Fleets.
Auxiliaries will be used in major ports and to support ASW forces along convoy routes.

This image shows my planned AKE, AR, AV/AG/AD (ASW Divisions) and AGP organisation.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/16/2019 1:26:39 PM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 76
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/16/2019 1:34:29 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		This image shows the minewarfare forces plus the submarine force that will be used for local defensive patrols, excluding the Fleet Subs that will be used on long range patrols.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 77
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/16/2019 3:57:45 PM   
pontiouspilot


Posts: 1127
Joined: 7/27/2012
Status: offline 		I'm planning to watch. Thanks for the trouble of AAR. I won't say much because I will also watch your opponent's AAR.

cheers

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 78
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/16/2019 5:41:14 PM   
inqistor


Posts: 1813
Joined: 5/12/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

Last game vs AI, I did train LN as the third skill after NS and ASW for new FP pilots.
This game I’m thinking about training some CAP as the third skill for some groups to improve defensive skill and also use the FP groups in that role vs unescorted 4E bombers in rear areas. I will have about 50 size 24 FP groups flying Jakes by mid 1942. They could be used as an extra 1000 “fighters”.

I kept CAP over Palembang for two weeks, half of it were FPs, and despite daily attacks by few unescorted bombers, none of FP groups have any kills. I am not sure if pure FP can actually score a CAP hit against enemy. Same situation with this island right north of Darwin.

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 79
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 4:38:24 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor

quote:

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

Last game vs AI, I did train LN as the third skill after NS and ASW for new FP pilots.
This game I’m thinking about training some CAP as the third skill for some groups to improve defensive skill and also use the FP groups in that role vs unescorted 4E bombers in rear areas. I will have about 50 size 24 FP groups flying Jakes by mid 1942. They could be used as an extra 1000 “fighters”.

I kept CAP over Palembang for two weeks, half of it were FPs, and despite daily attacks by few unescorted bombers, none of FP groups have any kills. I am not sure if pure FP can actually score a CAP hit against enemy. Same situation with this island right north of Darwin.


Thanks I’ll watch and see if FP on CAP has any value. Probably needs 50xp 70 air skill pilots and lucky altitude setting to have a chance.
Success will be claimed if disrupting allied bombers helps to minimise bomb hits on industry, not necessarily numbers of 4E bombers shot down, but a Jake Ace would be cool to see! It might just create B17 aces though...

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to inqistor)
Post #: 80
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 8:07:13 AM   
traskott


Posts: 1546
Joined: 6/23/2008
From: Valladolid, Spain
Status: offline 		comprehensive development of your plan of conquest.

Now we will have to see if it's completed sucessfully

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 81
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 8:57:33 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: traskott

comprehensive development of your plan of conquest.

Now we will have to see if it's completed sucessfully


Yes, we will see whether the plan survives contact with the enemy, and my tactical ability (or lack of) will soon be on display

I’m not expecting the turn back before the weekend so still have a few more days to go off on some planning tangents.

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to traskott)
Post #: 82
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 5:42:53 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

massive HI/LI expansion


Never massive, always moderate.

At any rate, based on (mostly Solli's) AAR's I like to shoot for HI production of ~15k. So that's 7500 HI in the game. Given that you'll capture some of that, you only need small increases to what you already have. In my current game I miscalculated a bit and went to 15400. Not a big deal as my fuel level is at 5M and oil is ~1.4M in mid '43. Both BTW are rising. I know that includes Magwe, but I challenge any Allied player to come and get it. He will eventually, but I can assure him the 'juice will not be worth the squeeze'.

Oh, and HI is at 1.3M and increasing ~100K/month.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to jdsrae)
Post #: 83
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 5:50:14 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

Kwangtung Army: GEN Umezu. 20th Army will move to China. All engineers will move to Fusan. All Artillery and Armour, most AA to move to China. Low numbered Divisions will move to China. GEN Umezu isn’t happy, but he was reminded that he only needs 8000+ AV to deter the Soviets, he doesn’t need his current 11450 AV or A grade Divisions to man border forts.


Right, this is where you'll get most of your ID's to start with. I like the 14th ID first, then the 8th (needs to recombine and get a new leader as it will typically pick Col. Klink to be the commander). Both of these divisions have the best arty config for Japan at game start.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 84
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 5:57:13 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

Pilot Training


Once fighter pilots are at 50/70/70 (ex/air/def) putting them on CAP 100%, range 0, will increase their experience pretty quickly. Even works well for Jake's, and will even increase their 'air' rating modestly.

BTW, you'll need to watch them, for after a while the moral will go down and fatigue up. This can take a week or more.

< Message edited by rustysi -- 9/17/2019 5:58:40 PM >

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 85
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 5:59:49 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

we will see whether the plan survives contact with the enemy


No plan survives contact with the enemy.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 86
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 8:51:07 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

Pilot Training


BTW, you'll need to watch them, for after a while the moral will go down and fatigue up. This can take a week or more.


Pilots, complaining about not getting their regulatory “crew rest” hours since 1941...
The sweet spot for set and forget “advanced” CAP training of 50+ Xp pilots is probably around 70% isn’t it?

Similar for FP pilots flying Naval Search. I noticed last AI game that their morale was ok if they flew NS about 70% but dropped pretty quickly if they flew more than that.
Except small groups up to about 5 aircraft size. They seem to be happy flying 100%.

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/17/2019 8:52:29 PM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 87
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 9:03:17 PM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

Kwangtung Army: GEN Umezu. 20th Army will move to China. All engineers will move to Fusan. All Artillery and Armour, most AA to move to China. Low numbered Divisions will move to China. GEN Umezu isn’t happy, but he was reminded that he only needs 8000+ AV to deter the Soviets, he doesn’t need his current 11450 AV or A grade Divisions to man border forts.


Right, this is where you'll get most of your ID's to start with. I like the 14th ID first, then the 8th (needs to recombine and get a new leader as it will typically pick Col. Klink to be the commander). Both of these divisions have the best arty config for Japan at game start.


I am just going in numerical order, I think there are a few other A grade Divs in the 20s that I’d like to bring out when the garrison allows.
1,8,9,10,11 Divisions are first on the train and will move directly to the front.
12 and 14 Divs will pause at the border (Jehol?) so I can check that the AV level is still above 8000.
They will be my theatre reserve for the first week or so, to either react to a forward move somewhere In China, or add themselves to the break through.

A plan involving >10 Divisions on a narrow axis might survive contact!


< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/18/2019 6:20:27 AM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 88
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/17/2019 10:10:38 PM   
Bif1961


Posts: 2014
Joined: 6/26/2008
From: Phenix City, Alabama
Status: offline 		I like the way you laid all that out for the Japanese it is a primer for anyone taking on the task of being the Japanese, ty for sharing that with the rest of us.

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 89
RE: Gensui jdsrae (J) vs CrackSabbath (A). IJ War Counc... - 9/18/2019 11:44:33 AM   
jdsrae


Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
Status: offline 		Cheers bif, this is my first PBEM so none of this theory has been tested in anger yet.

More time this evening to check industry and a few other things while I await the turn.
My war machine production is directly linked to my overall war strategy.
My aim is to win an auto victory on points and expenditure of HI points is geared to making that happen.
I am not aiming to get 4x allied VP by 1 Jan 1943 to win, but I will see if I can get close to 4x allied VP by Dec 43 so that if I miss that target, then I will still have 3x allied VP on 1 Jan 1944.

If I don't win an auto-victory by mid-1944 then the tide will have turned and I will be fighting a war of attrition to try to keep the points ratio to a draw by end game.

Ministry for War
Assistant Minister for War Production (Heavy Industry)

This graph shows my forecast for all things to do with HI point production and expenditure.
I don't use tracker so I'm not sure if I have the data behind this 100% but I started preparing this about a year ago, and tested it for nearly 12 months of game time in my last AI game. Generally, my forecasts in my AI game overestimated HI point spend, so my HI pool was larger than this curve shows before I decided to jump into a PBEM game.
I don't need this forecast to be 100% accurate, but I feel it is good enough for me to check actual vs this forecast on the 1st of each month and make adjustments as the war unfolds.

This graph shows that I don't expect the HI Points pool to get much above 500k and it should peak in mid 1943, with the HI pool largely spent by the end of Q1 1945. I have based my estimates of HI point expenditure on the following:

The HI stockpile line is just total HI Production minus the sum of all HI Expenditure.
If the war is still going after April 1945 I am not expecting full HI production to continue so HI spend will probably have to be matched to production with the HI pool staying close to zero from then on.

There will be no expansion to starting HI production factories. I have considered the option but I don't see a need for any more HI points to help achieve victory even by late 1944 and I have higher priority uses for the supply and fuel it would use.

Captured HI Production. Compared to the starting HI factories it is a small contributor, and is based on HI factories halving when they are captured and estimates of when I will capture and lose HI production centres (mainly in the DEI and China). I won't spend supply on repairing any damaged HI.

Production of airframes and engines steadily increases throughout the war. There may be some potential here for temporary production pauses to save on HI points but against a human opponent I am expecting to have to fight a lot harder than against the AI, especially in the air. On that basis, I don't see the value in saving HI points to use in 1944/45 if they could have been used to produce more aircraft to help win the war in 1943/44. If the war is still going by late 1945 some engine factories will switch off (if they haven't been bombed out first).

Production of vehicles and armaments will remain steady for the duration of the war. I am probably producing a bit higher than needed but am also expecting to have to fight harder on land against a human than against the AI so might need the extras to replace losses.

Production of IJN ships is based on standard production with no acceleration, with only 2 x SS delayed for a few months and two classes of SST halted. All other IJN ships will be built meaning that I need to try and win the war without accelerating CVs. If the war is still going in 1945 I will use the later arriving CVs to try and hold on for a draw. Once IJN shipbuilding starts to tail off I will start shutting down Naval Shipyards in late 1944 to avoid wasting the HI points.

Production of merchant ships is based on building early war CVEs and only TK and Std-A/B/C for conversion to TK that arrive in 1944. I won't accelerate any merchants and will halt lots of xAK ships as part of the orders for turn 2. Merchant shipyards will start being shut down in early 1944 to avoid wasting HI points.

The HI spend on pilot training ramps up through 1943 and remains steady for the rest of the war.

HI points spent on industry expansion is negligible after the first month, mainly focussed on aircraft and engine production changes.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 9/18/2019 12:19:08 PM >

_____________________________

Currently playing my first PBEM, no house rules Scenario 1 as IJ.
AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

(in reply to Bif1961)
Post #: 90
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