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RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/1/2022 11:08:37 PM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		I end the turn. I made a few attacks, most of them succeeded. Panzers remain in reserve at Smolensk which led to 1 hold.

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Post #: 181
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/1/2022 11:21:50 PM   
RedJohn

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tyronec

quote:

I have sent the entire Southwestern front to reserve, and they will be deployed to Moscow and Leningrad. I do not believe the South is worth defending remotely, and most Axis players will get +6 VPs regardless. I will not bother evacuating industry - it is a mechanic I have ignored so far, and will continue to ignore unless I reach the unlikely state in which Leningrad, Moscow, Tula, or other such cities that did not fall historically are threatened.

If the Soviets don't defend the South would expect Axis to achieve a sudden death win in '41, am not sure if that is what you are aiming to demonstrate ?

quote:

tyron


On that note, I would also like to remind people of what Tyronec said.

My defence of the south has been sporadic for most of the game. I quite literally sent the entirety of the Southwestern Front to reserve, and a good portion of the Southern Front. I have repeated this in another game, currently on axis turn 5.

We now stand in a situation where it is not the Soviet side facing sudden loss, it is the axis side. I believe this is no fault of my opponent, nor it is some grand display of skill. Beethoven originally pulled this strategy against me, and it forced me to resign by turn 10.

I do not believe the axis player can produce an efficient counter-response to this strategy. Their best bet is to maybe redeploy most of PZG1 to Centre or Leningrad. They cannot just leave it solely down to infantry to advance as they will barely advance. They cannot just snake with motorised/panzers to secure hexes for admin movement as I will deploy cavalry to stop that. I will also strip the entire south of units to counter any redeployment elsewhere.

There is simply no incentive for the Soviets to defend in the south (until mud arrives), no matter what anyone says. The VPs will be lost anyway, likely ahead of time against a competent axis. The axis supply chain will struggle the more they advance. Crimea is only barely worth defending because of it's ports and the natural chokeholds. Rostov itself is a literal fortress with any sort of preperation, and I categorically don't believe the axis can take it in 41 if it is cityforted ahead of time.

Industry? Doesn't matter, it'll all be evacuated as I understand it and just suffer some extra damage. Manpower? I get enough from holding all the centre and northern areas that I'm still easily making 100,000+ a turn. I will also receive a total of 1.1m extra free manpower. 500,000 turn 24, 150,000 turn 46 or 48, and another 450,000 turn 64.

Truly it boggles the mind.

(in reply to tyronec)
Post #: 182
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 2:57:41 AM   
K62


Posts: 666
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From: DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RedJohn

I do not believe the axis player can produce an efficient counter-response to this strategy.



I think you'll be in for a big surprise one day against an Axis player who knows what you're doing and can work the supply system in the south to its fullest. But even in the best case scenario, chances that you can hold out for the T29 sudden loss with this strategy are pretty slim. Hopefully you've done the math for the T68 victory conditions - or is it just a general gut feeling?


_____________________________

"Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views beyond the comprehension of the weak"
John Adams

(in reply to RedJohn)
Post #: 183
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 3:57:22 AM   
RedJohn

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: K62

quote:

ORIGINAL: RedJohn

I do not believe the axis player can produce an efficient counter-response to this strategy.



I think you'll be in for a big surprise one day against an Axis player who knows what you're doing and can work the supply system in the south to its fullest. But even in the best case scenario, chances that you can hold out for the T29 sudden loss with this strategy are pretty slim. Hopefully you've done the math for the T68 victory conditions - or is it just a general gut feeling?



You can only do so much with supply in the south, and the axis can only repair so fast. I wanted to try this against Tyronec but he had just started another game. The Axis are not advancing past Rostov in 41. They can of course choose to do so, but will lose against any sort of push from the flanks by the Soviets.

I was never aiming for a T29 sudden loss, it was just a thing that occurred to me recently that might happen. The goal of this AAR was never to make the axis experience a sudden loss, it was to show a strategy the Soviets can employ to stonewall Centre and North for no cost besides land you'd lose for sure anyway.

I will not lose on turn 68, if the games reaches there, I daresay categorically.

(in reply to K62)
Post #: 184
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 3:59:51 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		Turn 16 - the axis surprisingly advance into the gap I left.




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Post #: 185
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 4:15:16 AM   
RedJohn

 

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Status: offline 		Heavy mud creeps ever closer. Fairly slow turn, only 20 battles across the front.




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Post #: 186
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 4:17:06 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		The first "panzer" division is hit south-west of Lipetsk. It retreats to the hex west of Lipetsk, further into our jaws. We shall see if it is our first surrender of the game.




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Post #: 187
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 4:17:49 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
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Status: offline 		We officially reach a 4m OOB.




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RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 7:21:35 AM   
Gunnulf


Posts: 686
Joined: 10/31/2012
Status: offline 		Rostov is a good backstop, but also Sevastapol can be contested with a single army if you start building outer defences I the rough terrain across to yalta early enough. Failing to contest this and generally deploying a token screen to the south just means the axis can take the whole region with just 1 Pz and 11 Armee freeing up 6 and 17 to run rampant themselves. The gamble might pay off but its not without considerable advantages to the axis as well once he sniffs the game plan.

_____________________________

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Post #: 189
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 10:43:12 AM   
Jango32

 

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Status: offline 		You still need to hold whatever you gain in the Crimea and Ukraine against mobile exploitation units (i.e. cavalry divisions that have ZOC hex flipping and good MPs) and Rifle divisions with the infantry armies of AGS, so they can't actually run rampant. They can't run rampant further east either because of logistics.

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Post #: 190
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 11:39:59 AM   
Gunnulf


Posts: 686
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Status: offline 		If just facing light opposition 1 Pz can easily reach Rostov turn 14/mid sept without too much danger from marauding cavalry. If the Soviets stack here as Redjohn plans they won't get further immediately of course, and even if they take Rostov they would be unwise to go further east. But they will be free to contain and send Pzcorps elsewhere. 11 Armee will reach sevastapol but not long after even if the isthmus has some resistance, but if the city is not properly defended and falls that frees up a whole extra army to redeploy, the Crimea is going to be easy to defend against counterattacks, probably a German corps plus Romananians is enough. Meanwhile if resistance in the south is light enough that 1 Pz can push alone 17 armee doesnt need to tail along and can push in hard with 6 Armee in the centre and up northwest. Going light defences in the south may well be valid strategy in many ways, but there are consequences and many benefits to the Axis too once this is clear. But my main point is its always worth putting the effort into Sevastapol I think. You might not hold any longer than historical in the end, but spending an Army to fight in level 3-5 forts on favourable terrain is some of the most preferable fights you will have in '41 and the alternative is to free up a whole fresh 11 Armee to do damage elsewhere, or at the very least get better prepared for winter. If there is ever a point to sacrifice an army its here, in my humble opinion, especially as 11 Armee will have almost certainly lost the Romanian FDB just before the isthmus and will likely arrive at the gates on extended supplies just as the weather is about to turn. Not having a hard fight is a gift.

_____________________________

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Post #: 191
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 12:26:30 PM   
Beethoven1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

If just facing light opposition 1 Pz can easily reach Rostov turn 14/mid sept without too much danger from marauding cavalry.


FWIW this is about where my Soviet game against jubjub is currently.

quote:

If the Soviets stack here as Redjohn plans they won't get further immediately of course, and even if they take Rostov they would be unwise to go further east. But they will be free to contain and send Pzcorps elsewhere.


Where else, exactly, are they going to go? They could go up to Kursk, but that is already taken. They could go even further away, up towards Orel/Tula or something, but if they go very far they will take attrition losses from extra movement, right before winter as well. It will take a turn or two to move up there from Stalino, and then another turn at least to rest and recover CPP/lose fatigue before being fit for combat. By the time they get there, it will either be mud, or almost mud. Is it really worth having all those Panzers be damaged to drive them around more?

quote:

11 Armee will reach sevastapol but not long after even if the isthmus has some resistance, but if the city is not properly defended and falls that frees up a whole extra army to redeploy, the Crimea is going to be easy to defend against counterattacks, probably a German corps plus Romananians is enough. Meanwhile if resistance in the south is light enough that 1 Pz can push alone 17 armee doesnt need to tail along and can push in hard with 6 Armee in the centre and up northwest. Going light defences in the south may well be valid strategy in many ways, but there are consequences and many benefits to the Axis too once this is clear. But my main point is its always worth putting the effort into Sevastapol I think. You might not hold any longer than historical in the end, but spending an Army to fight in level 3-5 forts on favourable terrain is some of the most preferable fights you will have in '41 and the alternative is to free up a whole fresh 11 Armee to do damage elsewhere, or at the very least get better prepared for winter. If there is ever a point to sacrifice an army its here, in my humble opinion, especially as 11 Armee will have almost certainly lost the Romanian FDB just before the isthmus and will likely arrive at the gates on extended supplies just as the weather is about to turn. Not having a hard fight is a gift.


The talk about not defending Crimea/Sevastopol is not relevant, at least not for this current game here, since Redjohn/Bread is in fact defending it. However, suppose that the 11th Army were freed up as you say. If so, where exactly is it going to go? Infantry divisions can only march (at a maximum) 16 hexes per turn. It will So it will take them quite a few turns to march anywhere from Sevastopol, and by the time they get to wherever it is you are sending them, it will be already mud or possibly already winter.

(in reply to Gunnulf)
Post #: 192
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/2/2022 12:36:34 PM   
Stamb

 

Posts: 1030
Joined: 10/26/2021
Status: offline 		I am stopped at the entrance in Crimea in my game. Perekop is fortification lvl 3 + can be attacked from 1 side only. On the other sides it is also possible to build lvl 3 fortiications and have only hexes that can be attacked from 1 side.
My opponent is playing very well, especially in Crimea. Unfortunately he is not making AAR. He even uses amphibious HQ in order to help there (I had to open manual and search WTH is that HQ and how to deal with it).
From my perspective it is worth defending it.

(in reply to Beethoven1)
Post #: 193
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 1:18:42 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		Turn 17. Orel is surrounded, and sadly the 1st panzer division is freed. Some slight pushing in Crimea.




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Post #: 194
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 1:21:38 AM   
RedJohn

 

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Status: offline 		Rokossovosky frees Orel. 1st panzer division is hit back again.




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Post #: 195
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 1:27:00 AM   
RedJohn

 

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Status: offline 		We hit the 2nd panzer division, it holds, but loses half it's AFVs in the process.




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Post #: 196
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 1:30:49 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		The mountaineer army guarding the VL deadzone has it's first guards come up. We also hit another 2 units but get an unfortunate hold.

Still, our 2nd guards unit means we get a guards rifle corps to play with for blizzard. As soon as I am able to I'll merge this with the other guards at Vyazma, refit it, and shove either 3 tank brigades on it to begin farming for guards tank brigades or just 3 rifle brigades to boost it into 30-40 CV territory.






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Post #: 197
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 1:38:58 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		OOB Turn 17. 230,000 men sitting in manpower pool that for whatever reason didn't reinforce this turn.




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RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 5:13:58 AM   
Rosencrantus

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: K62

quote:

ORIGINAL: RedJohn

I do not believe the axis player can produce an efficient counter-response to this strategy.



I think you'll be in for a big surprise one day against an Axis player who knows what you're doing and can work the supply system in the south to its fullest. But even in the best case scenario, chances that you can hold out for the T29 sudden loss with this strategy are pretty slim. Hopefully you've done the math for the T68 victory conditions - or is it just a general gut feeling?



Agreed with K62, all due respect to the Axis player this game, but any experienced Axis player would be able to punish this strategy pretty easily.

< Message edited by Rosencrantus -- 2/3/2022 5:18:42 AM >

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Post #: 199
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 5:22:52 AM   
RedJohn

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

quote:

ORIGINAL: K62

quote:

ORIGINAL: RedJohn

I do not believe the axis player can produce an efficient counter-response to this strategy.



I think you'll be in for a big surprise one day against an Axis player who knows what you're doing and can work the supply system in the south to its fullest. But even in the best case scenario, chances that you can hold out for the T29 sudden loss with this strategy are pretty slim. Hopefully you've done the math for the T68 victory conditions - or is it just a general gut feeling?



Agreed with K62, all due respect to the Axis player this game, but any experienced Axis player would be able to punish this strategy pretty easily.


I await the day that happens, then, but I doubt it will because its a pretty solid strategy and the axis don't have much room to do much of anything despite others vehemently arguing otherwise.

I am happy to accept any challenge.

(in reply to Rosencrantus)
Post #: 200
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 7:21:38 AM   
Rosencrantus

 

Posts: 318
Joined: 1/9/2021
From: Canada
Status: offline 		I would enjoy one but already have an StB game going against Tyronec. Being on the constant defensive makes me miss having the strategic initative in 41 . If you'd like once I have more time in a few months we can have a good game, unless another experienced Axis player takes on your challenge.

< Message edited by Rosencrantus -- 2/3/2022 7:28:34 AM >

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Post #: 201
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 8:20:53 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		Well the offer is of course open to anyone who considers themselves "experienced". Whilst it is a pretty big disadvantage knowing the strategy beforehand, I still remain confident the Soviets are busted enough that it won't really end up mattering.

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Post #: 202
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 8:21:33 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		Turn 18. Orel is encircled again, and sadly the 1st Panzer division is freed. One battle in Crimea, quiet everywhere else.




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RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 8:39:35 AM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		Quiet turn, a few attacks by me. OOB remains roughly unchanged, 6313 men receiving reinforcements, as I dedicated most of my manpower reserve this turn to filling up units in the reserve. Deployed 2 armies to sectors that need reinforcements, and a whole slew of brigades across the front to reinforce units during blizzard.

All in all, next turn 440,000 men should appear on map.




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RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 10:55:42 AM   
Beethoven1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

Agreed with K62, all due respect to the Axis player this game, but any experienced Axis player would be able to punish this strategy pretty easily.


People always say this, but nobody actually ever does it.

What exactly could an experienced Axis player do to punish this? Let's say in theory that the Axis player could in theory advance as far as Voronezh/Stalingrad/Krasnodar, but if they actually take those cities, then Soviets can re-take them in winter and get +6 bonus VPs for early recapture. So Axis is actually perversely incentivized to NOT take those cities even if they are totally undefended. However, in practice they would not actually be undefended, because in practice this strategy is about having a non-existent-to-light defense in the south in the early turns, not permanently having no real south defense.

Meanwhile if our experienced Axis player takes the opposite tack and tries sending Panzergruppe 1 to the center, then Soviets could start actually defending in the south by deploying even relatively meager forces to get in the way of the slow advance of the German infantry.

< Message edited by Beethoven1 -- 2/3/2022 10:56:26 AM >

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Post #: 205
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 2:45:33 PM   
s2tanker


Posts: 599
Joined: 9/11/2013
From: Texas
Status: offline 		I've been suggesting to the developers that some sort of random disruption occur to the Soviet player in the first 2-3 turns - perhaps something akin to interdiction - reflecting the extreme confusion and panic among the Red Army command structure. Perhaps this can be an option at start so that new players don't have to deal with it. Without it, two evenly-matched players are going to see a variation of this match wherein there are no large pockets after the first turn - ever.

Another connected idea is to adjust the factory evacuations so that a player can prioritize regions to reflect the actual danger they perceive to their industry.

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Post #: 206
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 4:56:38 PM   
K62


Posts: 666
Joined: 6/7/2002
From: DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Beethoven1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

Agreed with K62, all due respect to the Axis player this game, but any experienced Axis player would be able to punish this strategy pretty easily.


People always say this, but nobody actually ever does it.

What exactly could an experienced Axis player do to punish this? Let's say in theory that the Axis player could in theory advance as far as Voronezh/Stalingrad/Krasnodar, but if they actually take those cities, then Soviets can re-take them in winter and get +6 bonus VPs for early recapture. So Axis is actually perversely incentivized to NOT take those cities even if they are totally undefended. However, in practice they would not actually be undefended, because in practice this strategy is about having a non-existent-to-light defense in the south in the early turns, not permanently having no real south defense.

Meanwhile if our experienced Axis player takes the opposite tack and tries sending Panzergruppe 1 to the center, then Soviets could start actually defending in the south by deploying even relatively meager forces to get in the way of the slow advance of the German infantry.


Sorry, I don't have the time to start a new game right now but here's the math:


Area                            VPs     HWM     Note
====                            ===     ===     ====
Riga, Minsk, Lvov                41     411     Easy picks T1
Tallinn, Pskov, Smolensk         35     446     Conservative estimate of 5 bonus VPs
Odessa, Kiev, Kharkov,
D-town, Zaporozhe                80     526     Presumably abandoned by Soviet player
Kursk, Stalino                   32     558     Presumably first Soviet line of defense
Sevastopol, Rostov, Orel,
Voronezh                         84     642     At least some of these should fall before schedule
Tula, Ryazan, Tambov, Rzhev      64     706     Sudden victory stretch            




I believe the correct strategy for the Axis player is not to send PG1 to the center but rather something on the lines of:
- Two infantry armies towards Sevastopol
- Some AGC infantry goes through Gomel to help AGS at Rostov
- Rest of AGC infantry plus most of AGN infantry grinds towards Rzhev
- PG1 leads southern advance
- PG2 and PG3 break into the open ground on the Orel - Ryazan direction
- PG4 is a strategic reserve

Tyronec is probably the expert on the southern strategy and may have a much better setup than what I've described above (if he's willing to share it...). If the Axis player knows where the Soviet lines will be and designs the logistic network appropriately then FBD speed should not be a huge constraint.

Also, even if Axis doesn't attain 700 VPs it's still up to the Soviets later on to match a pretty high HWM, possibly well into the 600s.

< Message edited by K62 -- 2/3/2022 5:22:26 PM >

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Post #: 207
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 5:12:52 PM   
Stamb

 

Posts: 1030
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quote:

ORIGINAL: s2tanker

I've been suggesting to the developers that some sort of random disruption occur to the Soviet player in the first 2-3 turns - perhaps something akin to interdiction - reflecting the extreme confusion and panic among the Red Army command structure. Perhaps this can be an option at start so that new players don't have to deal with it. Without it, two evenly-matched players are going to see a variation of this match wherein there are no large pockets after the first turn - ever.

Another connected idea is to adjust the factory evacuations so that a player can prioritize regions to reflect the actual danger they perceive to their industry.

It was told multiple times. If Soviet is running Axis player can forget about pockets. Maybe few divisions it is all what he get.
Industry is irrelevant unfortunately. Exception is Kharkov with tanks/airplanes (not sure if they are made there) and Leningrad. All other factories are irrelevant. Even if Soviet player lose factories that produce armaments at say turn 2! - there will be no difference in production.

(in reply to s2tanker)
Post #: 208
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 5:15:47 PM   
Stamb

 

Posts: 1030
Joined: 10/26/2021
Status: offline 		Also if it is correct that whole factories from a city are able to evacuate in 1 week then it is a fantasy.

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Post #: 209
RE: The Red Army Is (Not) Overpowered - A tongue in che... - 2/3/2022 8:09:56 PM   
RedJohn

 

Posts: 517
Joined: 9/20/2019
Status: offline 		- Two infantry armies towards Sevastopol
- Some AGC infantry goes through Gomel to help AGS at Rostov
- Rest of AGC infantry plus most of AGN infantry grinds towards Rzhev
- PG1 leads southern advance
- PG2 and PG3 break into the open ground on the Orel - Ryazan direction
- PG4 is a strategic reserve

Tow infantry armies to Sevastapol works for breaking it, but with solely infantry you're leaving a big gap in your lines unless you regiment.
AGC Infantry are diverted through Gomel, sure, but you're weakening a sector that's been reinforced with half/most of an entire front by the Soviets.
PG2/PG3 Breaking through to Orel, while doubtlessly possible in 41, is also inefficient as you're not repairing a dualtrack rail from Smolensk in that direction. Very risky for winter, no? Certainly even if you take Ryazan, you are absolutely not holding it as the Soviet OOB won't be 2m.
Diverting PG4 is interesting, but all it'd mean for the soviets is that as soon as they see the panzers go from that sector they can move 30% of the units to reserve and redeploy their own.


(in reply to Stamb)
Post #: 210
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