Battle of Cold Bay--Day 3

Battle of Cold Bay--Day 3 (Full Version)

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John 3rd -> Battle of Cold Bay--Day 3 (5/11/2009 5:24:33 AM)
Mike--Good to see you post onto the AAR. Hope things are well with you! AUGUST!!! Let us hear it for TONY and TOJO! BANZAI! BANZAI!! BANZAI!!! [sm=00000436.gif] [sm=cool0013.gif] We have production set to 425 Tojo and 68 Tony. On DAY ONE of production we got 12 Tojo... Here is a summary of the action fought by our STF the night of 31st/1st August. [image]local://upfiles/18041/0793E943DF434FE696EB1DC9CDFAAF6B.jpg[/image]

frank1970 -> RE: Battle of Cold Bay (5/11/2009 3:48:26 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: USS America I'll jump in here with a couple of answers as I'm getting caught up on another war. [:D] 1. There are 2 types of engineers. Airfield/Port/Fort building engineers are the usually seen one's in most base forces, etc. They don't reduce enemy forts. Engineer Squads are your combat engineers, which excel at reducing fortifications. They are usually in separate units from the "building" engineers, and sometimes included in larger combat units. 2. Yes, each supply hit destroys 1% of the supplies in the base, at the exact moment of that hit. If you have 1000 supplies at a base, the first hit destroys 1% of 1000, the second hit destroys 1% of 990, and so on. You get slightly reduced return for each successive hit. Never the less, the large number of hits that can regularly be racked up by a BB bombardment TF can put a serious dent in the supply stockpile of any base. Combined with the cumulative squad disablements, and occasional Deliberate attacks, I have to agree with ny59giants, that our heros can have success at Bombay, and Karachi after that. John, Brad, great war so far. [:)] I like seeing someone start out with a pre-war aim of trying to knock out India, and then watching it unfold. Good luck! Thanks a lot. So, the engineers should not be moved awy from building up airfields, and the bombardments will decrease allied supplies quite faster than estimated. Very nice.

John 3rd -> Cold Bay (5/11/2009 7:54:05 PM)
The two sides take a breath for--hopefully--a day or two or three! [image]local://upfiles/18041/F974C5248181426AB08396673D089835.jpg[/image]

Q-Ball -> RE: Cold Bay (5/11/2009 8:35:30 PM)
The more I think about this, the more I think we need to move the bulk of our assets up North there. Here is my thinking. John and I agree that the USN is certainly going to up the ante. They MUST get troops to Cold Bay, and they better do it relatively quick. I think they are moving BB's to take care of our cruisers, and all the USN CV's. The USN will be committed to this theater. By definition, this will be the big fall push. So, what do we do? We had a plan to lure out and defeat the RN in the IO. I don't think, however, they are coming out. Even when they nailed our DD's, they did so from the Aden channel, and quickly withdrew, citing BETTY as the reason. They are painfully aware of the presence of IJN Bettys at Ahmadebad and Poona, and Malir will soon be able to support torp-carrying Bettys. As much as we would like to fight, I don't think they will out there, not until they can do something about the Betties. I think we should move the bulk of the fleet up north. We could leave BB's in the IO to pound Bombay, as I think we need 6 BBs at least to counter the USN. So we either need alot, or don't bother. I do think we should send all the CV's up north, including Junyo, Hiyo, etc. We also need ALOT of DD's up north to run supplies and troops into Cold Bay. So, I would send all the CV's. I would leave the old BB's in the IO; we will counter their BB's with Airpower. If we can keep them away from Cold Bay, we can capture all those troops, and really set them back. If those troops are still stuck there by the end of October, then blizzards break out, and those troops will freeze to death.

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/11/2009 9:43:45 PM)
All I have to say is BANZAI!

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/11/2009 9:46:56 PM)
Perhaps I should translate that some... Totally concur. I will pull the Junyos, CVLs, and even the CVEs and move them back to Home Islands. It will take some time but we need at least two weeks for repair and upgrades as is. Already have a few DDs moving to Attu. There are 2 CA, 2 CL, and 12 DD in Toyko fully repaired. We can immediately issue them orders to move. Should we buy 1st Guards Brigade now? Should I pick-up the Inf Div in Kwajalein and get it moving also? Thoughts?

Canoerebel -> RE: Cold Bay (5/11/2009 9:56:52 PM)
I don't think Arctic winter conditions begin until December 1. If you can hold Cold Bay until then, the Allies won't be able to effectively land any further troops until March (for some reason, winter effects end in February). Can't the Allies bring all assets to bear far sooner than you can hope to get your IO carriers way up there? Once the Allies know your carriers are all up in the Aluetians, they'll feel more frisky about moving elsewhere. Is the Cold Bay action that important?

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/11/2009 10:34:13 PM)
Good question. We might be drawn into something up there but we'll so so much firepower we should be able to handle it. It will serve to open the Central Pacific up some. That is a serious concern for me.

ny59giants -> Weather (5/11/2009 10:38:58 PM)
Per the manual (p. 173) - 12.0 Weather Cold Zones (Korea, Manchuria, Alaska, Siberia, the Aleutian Islands, and Southern New Zealand). The negative effects of these zones only function 4 months of the year (winter) depending on the area. In the North, they function November through February, while in the South they function from May through August. Cold Zones during the winter impact ground untis the same way as Malaria Zones (extra fatigue), with the following added penalties: 1) Ships moving in Cold Zones during winter will suffer operational system damage at double the normal rate 2) All base construction in Cold Zones during winter takes twice as long 3) Air units will fly 25% less aircraft on strike-type missions 4) Ground units unloading at an enemy base/beach or into a non-base hex with an enemy unit will suffer roughly three times the losses they would normally suffer

Q-Ball -> RE: Cold Bay (5/11/2009 11:38:44 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Once the Allies know your carriers are all up in the Aluetians, they'll feel more frisky about moving elsewhere. Is the Cold Bay action that important? Call it a hunch, but I don't think so. I think they've played this hand, and won't fold now; with 15,000 troops on Cold Bay, I see them going all-in. It's a good place for us to fight, because they really don't have LBA support there; we control the skies over Cold Bay. So far they have lost 10 transports, including 6 APs, which the Allies don't get alot of. This has the potential to be a major meat grinder for the Allies. We just have to be careful to keep track of Allied surface units, no use getting CLs and DDs killed over Cold Bay. Point taken on Cold Bay's importance; in the end, it really isn't important. It's a pretty useless rock for the most part. If they attacked elsewhere in the Pacific, they would be resigned to abadoning those troops at Cold Bay. It wouldnt' be a bad idea to try something, I just think they will stick to Cold Bay. Here is a question: Why abandon all of the Aleutians, then immediately attack back into them?

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 12:14:59 AM)
I like fighting FOR the base to simply draw the Allies in. We have the potential of having two major airbases at Amchitka and Umnak. They can only use Kodiak. If we can maintain the hold on Cold Bay then we can use these AF to provide cover and attack capabilities. Cold Bay is AF-1 and it could get some Fighters but they will be trashed by bombardment when that occurs. Next turn I will start loading the Inf Div at Kwajalein and buy out the 1st Gaurds Brigade in Tokyo. That will mean that we have to wait about 10 days before buying the Tank Division out of Manchuria. Course that Division has to move down to Moppo anyway so it probably won't hurt us at all. Brad does that sound OK? Probably be good to move move planes up to the Aleutians. We shall need more Betty and Zero. Definately want to grab a couple of Tojo Sentai and get them up there ASAP. Already have two more Base Force's moving up to Cold Bay... Thanks for the weather update Michael!

ny59giants -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 12:40:35 AM)
Your Welcome!! A MLE and some of the fast MLs (20 knot) at Dutch Harbor might be good to load up Cold Bay and a short turn around for your subs. Kodiak and various Alaskan ports should be added to your target list. If you set your MLs at full speed they should be able to get to Cold Bay during the night phase and be back at Dutch Harbor without the Allies knowing you were even there (at least until they bump into a mine [:D]).

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 12:53:56 AM)
VERY good idea. I have a bunch of ML and a pair of MLE at Kwajalein. Wouldn't take too long to get up there.

Nemo121 -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 2:45:53 AM)
Order, counter-order, disorder.

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 4:33:57 AM)
Considering that only ONE game turn has passed since we started, discussed, and MADE this decision, I consider it pretty fast for a major change of focus and operational planning. Flexibility is a good thing! Brad will keep up the fight in India and I (or my replacement) will strike hard in the North.

Nemo121 -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 5:03:41 PM)
The point was not about the speed of the order but about the order itself. It is always possible to do things quickly, the crux of the matter is not whether it can be done and done quickly but whether it is the right thing to do.

frank1970 -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 5:20:59 PM)
Hey guys, you "just" took the bases in the Aleutians because you could. YOu now want to throw in some divisions. Don´t you thionk you should finish India and then think about spending your troops for a useless roch middle in the nowhere?

veji1 -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 5:48:48 PM)
It is very risky for Japan to overcommitt in an area where you will be to weak anyway if they bring the kitchen sink and will have just bled you harder... I mean the whole transporting a brigade to Cold Bay so that he has to come back with more and risk more ships to take the island is good stuff, it slows their progress as opposed to them seizing the island easily, but if you end up sending too many troops in a place you can't efficiently defend for long, you will lose them for little gain.. Now is more about preparing your defense in the rest of the aleutians in the PJs rather than risking assets by counterattacking too aggressively.. you can easily lose a surface TF for little gain just trying to shoot up a few more transports... Just stand ready to pounce if the opportunity arises and it doesn't preclude from carrying out your other operations but don't commit piecemeal... just my 2 cents.

Canoerebel -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 5:58:16 PM)
I agree with the "conservative" comments (naturally)! Q-Ball, while the Allied supply of APs isn't unlimited it is very, very large. Its always good to sink AKs and APs, but, trust me, the Allies can afford to lose many, many, many transports. I lost vast numbers in my game with John and it didn't really hamper me. I think you guys are assigning way to much value to stymiing the Allies at Cold Bay. They don't need it but you're acting like they do. A DIVISION there? Why? The Allies are going to advance eventually - let them do so SLOWLY. Don't make their advance impossible (as it will be if a Jap division ends up at Cold Bay. If you block them, you force them to get more creative and surprise you with a more bold offensive that could really hurt you. You've got troops at Cold Bay that'll make it hard for the Allies to take it any time soon - now just use that to your advantage while building up your rear areas in the Aluetians and Kuriles to make each additional step very difficult for the Allies. That's my opinion and I'm stickin' to it! Edited to Add: By "letting them" eventually take Cold Bay, you might be encouraging them to pursue a plodding, step-by-step campaign in the Aleutians that you can therefore predict, react to, and slow to an acceptable pace.

Nemo121 -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 6:02:49 PM)
Ok, since the implicit didn't seem to get through let's see if the explicit does: Order: Focus on India. Counter-order: When India becomes difficult instead of focussing more and more on it until you overcome that difficulty you are dispersing your forces on other gambits which, while somewhat useful, do detract from your primary focus. Disorder: Whatever strategic plan you may have had re: focussing on India and then extending elsewhere once that was done. Just because you CAN do something doesn't mean you should. The acme of strategic art is NOT winning every battle you fight ( as I think you seem to feel it is ) but, rather, putting together a string of acceptances and declinations of battle which furthers your national policy objectives. E.g. In my game vs Damian I wanted to take the Marshall Islands and crafted a plan which let me do that in 1 week despite the fact that my navy ( in particular my CVs ) were less numerous and of lesser quality than the Japanese CVs. When I took the Marshall Islands ( acceptances of battle ) I then was in the position where I had the option of declining further battles --- particularly a threatened CV on CV clash. Since it wasn't in my interests to accept that battle once the islands were all mine I declined that battle even though I could have probably had a favourable exchange rate --- tactically it would have been a win but operationally it was unnecessary and strategically it would have been foolish. So, tactics are suborned to operations and operations suborned to strategy. In this game ( and others ) you are allowing your tactical opportunities to drive your operations. This is a failing as once your operations are driven by tactics your strategy will be driven by the opportunities afforded by operations. You'll manage to put together some great ops but your overarching strategy will be deeply flawed. In effect you'll be the Germans on the Eastern Front in 1943, great operations, lousy strategy, massive defeats. Far better to be the Soviets, tactics, operations and strategy suborned in a hierarchical manner to national policy objectives and while no-one will write about your operations the professionals will wonder at the breadth of your strategic vision and misdirection ( I refer here, of course, to Bagration ). Still, your choice... but I do wish you would be less defensive about things and more open to taking on board the feedback of people who are trying to point this stuff out.

Q-Ball -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 6:58:47 PM)
Points are well taken, and I think there isn't a doubt that India is our primary objective. Based on this feedback, I propose a slight revision. I am not in favor of buying troops to send to the Aleutians. We are close to buying a new Tank Div, that is needed in India. Buying the Gds Bde in Tokyo would delay that. I do not propose we commit more ground troops to this theater, as they are needed elsewhere. I think Nemo and all are right here. In terms of CV's, however, they are not going to help take India. The Allies have already pulled out of the Arabian Sea, and the last time they approached the coast with shipping they lost a ton of ships to Bettys. I have no problem committing KB up there, because KB cannot help us in India. The only thing we lose is that KB is the threat that defends the Pacific for the most part, so if we use it up north, we have to use it quickly and get out, before they can take advantage of it's presence up there. BBs WILL help take India. We need them there. As far as a August 3, 1942 Combat Report, all was fairly quiet this turn. The highlights: BB Bombardment of Bombay yields 8K allied casualties. They are moving a large number of ships from Aden to Australia. One of our subs spotted two groups; one consisting of 6+ DDs (4 stackers mostly), and another consisting of AP,TK,AO,AK with Dutch escort. The DD's are probably just a ASW escort; we have had subs on that route, so it would make sense to have them there. Odds are they are NOT moving warships to Australia. The APs are interesting; there must be troops on board, and I would guess base forces, since Australia is pretty short on that, and there is likely a huge surplus at Aden. PS: Recall we have a house rule allowing shipping from Aden to Oz. We saw them pass Addu Atoll awhile back, but now we have a better idea of composition.

ny59giants -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 7:03:47 PM)
PSS - They will be bring hundreds of thousands worth of supply with them. I would revisit your plans around Australia and how you will defend them once they get settled in.

Q-Ball -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 7:32:58 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ny59giants PSS - They will be bring hundreds of thousands worth of supply with them. I would revisit your plans around Australia and how you will defend them once they get settled in. .....and planes too, don't forget. They probably have fighters on one of those ships as well. Plans? My plans aren't too elaborate. We have very few ground troops there, because everyone is in India. I have been digging for months, so most bases have nice forts and a size-4 airbase. But not alot of rifles. We have Bettys and Zeros to keep the Allied fleet honest, but once they get P-38s, that won't be sufficient. Can't defend everything.

CaptDave -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 7:38:44 PM)
It's taken me a couple weeks to slog through this entire AAR (problem: laptop + reading + easy chair = sleep), but I've finally made it. I'm thoroughly enjoying it, and I'm learning a lot. Thanks for that! There is one thing I noticed at the beginning which still seems to be a problem, but not as bad as it was. I'm a great admirer of the tactics of Dick O'Kane, commander of USS TANG, and almost fully agree with his dictum: base your plans on the enemy's abilities, rather than on his intentions. I disagree slightly only because I believe there are no absolutes, and there are times when the enemy's intentions must be factored in. Even in those cases, though, his capabilities must be the stronger of the two factors. I have a feeling that if your side gets spanked anytime in the next few months, it's going to be for this reason (later, of course, we all know that the Allies will just overwhelm the Japanese, no questions asked -- it's just a matter of how much later).

Hornblower -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 8:02:23 PM)
I look at is this way. Considering that the Allies have to husband there CV’s to protect the lines of communications until the Essex-es and Indy-ies (sorry couldn’t help myself) appear there is few spots that he can initiate an offense with any chance of success. I feel that the Aleutians is that Spot. Again, factoring out the 3 surviving USN CV’s we’re left with LBA’s as his main weapon. With him holding Kodiak he can reach Cold harbor with B-17/24’s and your shipping will be within range of B-25’s Just because you Can hold Cold Harbor doesn’t mean that you should. I agree with the earlier post that you should build up what you hold and husband your resources in the North. Last thing you want is a target for his LBA’s and Dash in-out of his STF DD’s from Kodiak and turn this piece of rock into a place of attrition for your units... That’s my 2 cents for what its worth and I thoroughly enjoy this AAR.

Q-Ball -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 8:24:45 PM)
I don't mind fighting for it, but I would recommend to John that we keep a fragment out of Cold Bay for the units we put in; that way, worst that happens we rebuild the units over the winter for action next spring. Whatever happens, this offensive is limited, due to weather; after Halloween, landing on anything is pretty much not feasible.

frank1970 -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 8:34:30 PM)
Is it possible to intercept those convoys to Australia? Else, if you withdraw your CVs, can you protect your BBs against his CVs? YOu need those BBs and you need the airraids on Karachi and Bombay and you will need to have an additional longrange cap. Do you have the aitfields for this? The planes? What is so important in the Aleutians?Why do you want to risk your carriers for ColdBAy? Risking them for Bombay or Karachi makes sense, for Cold BAy doesn´t.

Q-Ball -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 10:17:46 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Frank Is it possible to intercept those convoys to Australia? No, houserule prevents it. We have Addu Atoll, it would be pretty easy to put some Kates there if I could quote: Else, if you withdraw your CVs, can you protect your BBs against his CVs? YOu need those BBs and you need the airraids on Karachi and Bombay and you will need to have an additional longrange cap. Do you have the aitfields for this? The planes? We don't need our CV's to protect our BB's. They can be protected from Shore very easily. Especially at Bombay, they won't be able to sneak up on it with CV's, we have alot of Nav Search in the Arabian Sea. Even if they did, they would expose their CV's to Bettys. We have several size-4 airbases now on the SW coast of India. quote: What is so important in the Aleutians?Why do you want to risk your carriers for ColdBAy? Risking them for Bombay or Karachi makes sense, for Cold BAy doesn´t. Good question. I think the main point: We can't do anything with CV's in the Arabian Sea. I suppose we could bomb Bombay from them, but that is a real waste of that asset. Better to move them where they make sense. You are correct that Cold Bay is pretty useless. It's only useful at the moment because 12K Allied troops are stuck there outside of their LBA range and inside of ours. Not good for them. Once the Allies take control of the air over Cold Bay, which will probably be October at the latest (P-38), it will be time to think about getting out of there.

Canoerebel -> RE: Cold Bay (5/12/2009 10:27:02 PM)
Q-Ball, are you guys still looking at auto-victory? If so, what is the current score and what are your thoughts about your chances. If you're shooting for auto-victory, then that would affect your strategy in ways not contemplated in the recent commentary (at least my part of it). You've certainly accomplished almost all of your pre-war objectives and other things to boot, so if you DON'T have a shot at auto-victory, man that's a hard objective to reach!

John 3rd -> Bombay Blast! (5/13/2009 12:54:01 AM)
I just got this screenshot done and haven't read the vast commentary from when I left for the day. Don't know if Brad mentioned a little naval bombardment at Bombay! [sm=sterb032.gif] [image]local://upfiles/18041/905DD9B9020E4714AB26FF817951DACB.jpg[/image]

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