RE: Cold Bay

RE: Cold Bay (Full Version)

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John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/13/2009 12:59:58 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel I agree with the "conservative" comments (naturally)! Q-Ball, while the Allied supply of APs isn't unlimited it is very, very large. Its always good to sink AKs and APs, but, trust me, the Allies can afford to lose many, many, many transports. I lost vast numbers in my game with John and it didn't really hamper me. I think you guys are assigning way to much value to stymiing the Allies at Cold Bay. They don't need it but you're acting like they do. A DIVISION there? Why? The Allies are going to advance eventually - let them do so SLOWLY. Don't make their advance impossible (as it will be if a Jap division ends up at Cold Bay. If you block them, you force them to get more creative and surprise you with a more bold offensive that could really hurt you. You've got troops at Cold Bay that'll make it hard for the Allies to take it any time soon - now just use that to your advantage while building up your rear areas in the Aluetians and Kuriles to make each additional step very difficult for the Allies. That's my opinion and I'm stickin' to it! Edited to Add: By "letting them" eventually take Cold Bay, you might be encouraging them to pursue a plodding, step-by-step campaign in the Aleutians that you can therefore predict, react to, and slow to an acceptable pace. Dan and Veji: I concur with your thinking. It is important to beef-up the islands and defend them well but not TOO well. While we are this strong I really would like to inflict a serious naval reverse where we might force them to wait until mid-43 for an offensive. Dan---your 'letting them' take Cold Bay has a very devious and nice feel to it...

John 3rd -> RE: Cold Bay (5/13/2009 3:00:56 AM)
Brad said something about leaving fragments for any unit moving into Cold Bay and heartily concur with that thinking. I am willing to move about 75% of both Ind Brigades there with some Engineering support. Barring another fully prepped Inf Div landing we should be able to hold against what is currently there. Have to apologize to Brad because I did this afternoon's turn on the fly and I bought out the 1st Guards Brigade at Tokyo thinking that was the plan. Damn... It left about 1,000 PP with about 10 days before our new Armored Division arrives. We'll need at least a 1,000 more points at that time. As said earlier this shouldn't be a big deal since it arrives in central Manchuria and must first move down to Moppo. Hopefully this will not delay the departure of the unit whatsoever...

John 3rd -> Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 3:06:09 AM)
Gentlepersons: I have gotten 7-8 personal posts from members of the Forum expressing their support for my Hearing tomorrow. Considering I haven't said anything on either AAR for a while this has been really touching. Let me start generally by saying Thank You for all the support, time, and damned good times with our games. You're a damned fine group of men and I appreciate everything you have done and said. It has been a great support to me during a very dark time. Even my wife--begrudgingly--admits to the help this stupid game has provided. We enter into the final pages tomorrow. I do not know what will happen tomorrow afternoon. My wife has been given instructions as to log-in here and provide the answers if needed. To the gentlemen in the 2x2, I have recommended Michael take over and join Brad. Mike and I talk about our campaign on the phone all the time and it wouldn't be hard for him to takeover. Those are my .02 pending on what happens. Warmly, John

marky -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 3:15:56 AM)
Good luck John [sm=00000436.gif]

vettim89 -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 3:27:44 AM)
I know you are in a lot of people's thoughts who you would not recognize if they walked up to you. For those of us spiritually inclined: praying for you

stuman -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 3:28:25 AM)
We wish the best for you, your family, and all involved. I guess all we can ask is that the Judge/Jurors ( ? )( I don't know the details of course) involved be fair and impartial.

ny59giants -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 3:44:19 AM)
I'm waiting for my appointed time of 11:10pm (EST) to call you and catch up on today's events. I just watched my Celtics come back from 14 down in the 4th quarter. [:)]

Canoerebel -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 4:09:24 AM)
In my games with John I always hated to hear him yell, "Banzaii!" I knew it meant good for him and doom for me. I hope sometime tomorrow we'll hear a resounding legal "Banzaii" from John, the manic Jap player who's always pushing, pushing, pushing. May reason and justice prevail (and, like Vettim put it so nicely, a prayer for his well-being too).

marky -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 4:09:28 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: vettim89 I know you are in a lot of people's thoughts who you would not recognize if they walked up to you. For those of us spiritually inclined: praying for you amen

thegreatwent -> RE: Thanks Guys (5/13/2009 4:15:19 AM)
Best of luck John. For what its worth I'm pulling for you.

Cap Mandrake -> RE: Cold Bay (5/13/2009 5:40:07 AM)
Good luck, man!

John 3rd -> August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 6:53:42 AM)
August 1, 1942 Victory Points and Economic Summary Victory Points: Score Japan 31,572 (Up 6,783) Allies 7,096 (Up 1,757) Strategic Losses: Japan 0 Allies 34 In a Victory Point Ratio we are up 4.45—1! This is a June and July Report covering the capture of Canton and the Line Islands, the Carrier Battle there, final capture of all remaining India bases except Bombay and Karachi, the fall of Ceylon, and the eradication of all enemy forces in Burma. HOLY CRAP! That is a lot of action. Ships Sunk Japan 172—1,638 VP (Up 853)—68 Losses for June and July: 2 TK, 5 AK, 19 AP, 8 MSW, 5 PG/PC, BB Yamato, CA Chokai and Aoba, CL Yubari, Yura, Nagara, 3 DD, 4 PT and 6 SS (4 I-Boats and 2 Ro-) Total Naval Losses: BB Yamato, 2 CA, 5 CL, 10 DD, and 20 SS (16 I-Boats and 4 Ro-) Considering the heavy fighting and the fact the American as well as British CVs were active this isn’t too bad whatsoever. For all this action the Japanese Fleet losses are still reasonably minor! Allies 367---4,407 VP (Up 1,674)---Allies lost 73 Ships in June and July. Exact sinkings were: 46 AK, 5 AP, 1 MSW, 1 ML, 1 AVD, 2 CV—Enterprise and Hornet, 4 CA—Astoria, Minneapolis, San Fransisco, and Vincennes, 3 CL—Honolulu, Nashville, and Phoenix, CLAA Van Heemsberck, 5 DD, and 2 SS. Total Warship Losses are: 2 CV: Enterprise and Hornet, 2BB West Virginia and Oklahoma, 7 CA, 15 CL, 28 DD, 46 PT, and 27 SS (20 Fleet and 7 S-Boat) Allied Naval Losses take a huge jump with the Carrier Victory of Palmyra. Manchukuo Garrison---8,359---(8,000 Needed)---Down 343 Political Points---2641 Units Transferred: 9th Infantry Division Aviation Brigade Industrial Report Supply 2,441,339 UP 58,535 Fuel 2,444,580 Down 390,252 Manpower 878 (267,091) Gain 7 Surplus UP 117,000 Heavy Industry 14,420 (13,237) HI Up 35 and Reserve UP 4,000 Resources 20,000 (1,577,964) Gained 615 Centers and Reserve Down 25,000 Oil 2,369 (1,225,084) Up 34 Centers These numbers are still fantastic. All credit to Brad. Fuel dropped a bunch as we are forward deploying our fuel throughout the Pacific and that slows down the TKs moving to the DEI to haul the oil up to Japan. The Oil Center gain is from Balikpapan where have begun to repair the vast number of damaged Oil Centers. Shipyards Naval 1,401 (2,980) Expanded 29 Points of Yards Merchant 948 (99 Dropped 2 Points of Yards Repair 1,037 Expanded Repair Yards by 85 due to Auckland, Diamond Harbor, and Cebu expanding while we have just captured Trincomalee and Columbo. Carriers Taiho 582 Days Unryu 628 Days (Accel) Amagi 631 Days (Accel) Katsuragi 727 Days (Accel) Kasagi 945 Days (Accel) Aso 993 Days Ikoma 993 Days CVL Ryuho Completed Battleships Musashi 122 Days CVE Chuyo Completed Shinyo 270 Days (Accel) Kaiyo 247 Days (Accel) Weapons Armament 597 (29,676) Vehicles 218 (17,834) Both areas gain quite nicely in their stockpiles. These are our wartime numbers. Doubt if we will expand either from this point on. Vehicles gained quite a bit after our TK Regiments repaired themselves. The new TK Division coming in will grab a good number. Might be able to cease production of about 50% of the Vehicles. Aircraft Engines 1,852 Assembly 1,477 + (166-Rd) Engines expand 22, production soars as Tojo/Tony come in, and Research crashes. Engine Production Type Producing---Need---Stockpile Mitsubishi 865—841—1045 Nakajima 867(15)---1060---983 Kawasaki 100---68---786 Aichi 20---0---152 With all those Tojo coming online Brad we need to expand our Nakajima by at least 200! Running 200 in the hole a month is a BAD thing… Plane Production Fighters Planes/Month (in Pool) Nate 0 (168) Claude 0 (129) A6M2 167 (119) A6M3 72 (171) A6M3a 24-Rd 11/42 Oscar 144 (108) Oscar IIa 21-Rd 11/42 Tojo 431 Tony 68 A6M5 5-Rd 09/43 Jack 30-Rd 10/43 N1K1 George 49-Rd 05/44 Frank 1a 0-Rd 08/44 We get Franks in 2 YEARS! Banzai!!! Naval Production: A6M2/A6M3 production is good. Brad doesn’t like to build up too big a stockpile here so the numbers are reasonable. Army Production: LOOK at those Tojo and Tony numbers! BANZAI!! We will replace 1 Sentai of Oscars every two days. Considering most of our Army pilots are in the 80-90 EXP area this will be fantastic. Should allow us to rest our tired Zero Daitai a bit. Bombers Nell 0 (171) Betty 66 (110) Betty 2 10-Rd 07/43 Sally 148 (68) Helen 46 (8) Lily 40 (125) Val 57 (376) Kate 48 (269) Looks like we can shutdown Lily and Val production for a while. Still running a little tight on IJA bombers but it is getting better. Once the IJA Sentai have completed outfitting with new fighters the question then becomes what to research next to try and get in early? Judy? Jill? Betty 2? Any thoughts? Seaplanes Mavis 0 (45) Emily 32 (53) Dave 0 (113) Alf 0 (17) Pete 0 (112) Pete A 0 (16) Rufe 22 (124) Glen 4 (52) Dinah 31 (92) Jake 34 (138) Ida 0 (81) Babs (Ki-15) 0 (76) Babs (C5M) 8 (62) Things are pretty decent here. We can shutdown Rufe, Jake, Glen, and Babs for a while. Transports Tina 20 (73) Sally 0 (29) Topsy 25 (107) Mavis-L 0 (33) Tabby 20 (123) All our Transports are filled out and the stockpiles begin to grow. Might be able to stop production of Tabby and Topsy? Since we never have enough in stockpile I might prefer to build out to about 200 in each and THEN cease production.

John 3rd -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 7:03:14 AM)
Thank you guys. To all that have PM'd me thank you as well!

bigbaba -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 8:14:01 AM)
thanks for your industrial informations, john. i am the japanese player in a stock game against a crazy aussie guy[;)] and also at the beginning of august 1942 (august 4th 1942). its nice to compare your numbers with mine what i will surely do soon. my biggest problem in this game is...self caused. i had a long fight for balikpapan and now, although i run a supply eating repair program there, the oil/ressource centers are 50% damaged. i have the fear that i can not build up my industry effectivly with balikpapan so badly damaged. edit: here are my industry numbers. since it was my first japanese PBEm, any suggestions from veteran players would be nice about what i should change or not: supply: 2427539 fuel: 4911233 manpower: 806 (460972) HI: 14060 (58210) resources: 17693 (1066025) oil: 2182 (943917) naval shipyard: 1248 (27793) merchant shipyard: 1073 (92839) shipyard repair: 826 armament: 674 (87858) vehicles: 144 (16508) engines: 1956 AC assembly 646 + (219 -rd) engine production: per month/needed/pool mitsubishi: 470/249/2102 nakajima: (113)948/476/1951 kawasaki: (63)198/154/654 aichi: 40/0/240 AC production: pool/production KI-61 KAIc tony: 31/154 A6M3 zero: 186/120 KI-49 helen: 64/111 A6M2 zero: 171/100 J2Mjack -rd: 96 N1K1 -J george -rd: 57 A6M5 zeke -rd: 48 G4M1 betty: 389/40 kate: 470/34 val: 427/28 KI-46-II dinah: 42/24 L2D2 tabby: 43/16 H8K emily 31/14 thats it. any ideas what i should change?

Rainer79 -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 9:11:46 AM)
First of all, good luck, John. Regarding the economy, these are a lot of naval yards. They eat up a ton of HI points preventing the build-up of that pool. But now that you've expanded them I wouldn't want to shut them down either. As for fighters, I would shift some Tojos to Tonies. You are producing more Kawasaki engines than you have Tony factories and a hefty stockpile to boot. That would also help with the Nakajima shortage. For the next research target I'd go for the A6M5. Better durability and armor could keep some of the precious pilots alive a bit longer.

Rainer79 -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 9:15:00 AM)
Bigbaba, a couple of comments: 1) Producing only ~650 planes is not enough. More than 1000 should be the target. 2) The naval and merchant pools have a big surplus. You should definitely start to accelerate some ships. 3) Balikpapan being damaged is no problem if the other centers are in reasonably good shape. If PALEMBANG is completely trashed, then you should start to worry.

bigbaba -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 9:21:56 AM)
arg, my bad. i mean palembang is reduced to 50% resources/oil production. i repair the base since 5 months and it eats alot of supply, but the repair rate is very slow. i try to have always over 10k supply there and had several ENG regiments there before i found out that the number of ENG units does not accelerate the repair speed. about the AC production: alot of factories have order to increase thir production numbers but it is a slow process. also, i took the oscar units from the frontline and converted the oscar production into tony because they are realy obsolate at this time (even in china). actualy, the production of tony and the research of the jack, zeke and george is increasing..at least on paper.

Rainer79 -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 9:51:13 AM)
You shouldn't expand your factories too much though since that will also consume supply points and 2.4 million is not that great a stockpile. As for Palembang, I would think about stopping repairs of the resource centers there. The oil refineries will still only repair at a pace of 1 center/day but it will save supplies. Each resource center you repair will need 1000 days of uninterrupted production before it breaks even. While that ignores the resources it will also provide, you already have enough at other places.

veji1 -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 11:20:38 AM)
good luck john.

skrewball -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 1:13:20 PM)
Best of luck John! We need you back here ASAP...no-one makes an AAR like you do [:D]

John 3rd -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 3:17:37 PM)
Thanks guys--this "MANIC" Japanese player cannot wait to 'keep up the skeer!' [:D] As to industrial questions, I would defer to Brad on some of those questions. He has masterfully run this economy and I credit it to him. The Tojo/Tony question is a good one. I just looked at the August 3rd turn and saw Tony bounced up to 178 as Oscar factory converted over to Tony. The replacement of Oscar with these excellent aircraft shall truly help us. As to the next area for research A6M5 would be fine and useful. What about Betty 2/Judy/Jill?

John 3rd -> North to Alaska (5/13/2009 4:01:38 PM)
Haven't done a base-by-base map in quite a while and think the Aleutians are a PERFECT place to start! Chronology: Winter 41-42 The Japanese land at Attu and Amchitka to begin base construction Spring 42 The rest of the islands between these bases are taken over by the Japanese and base forces/construction units move in. Summer 42 A scare shakes the Japanese Command as to how vulnerable the Aleutians are. Orders are cut for 2 Chinese Independent Brigades to reinforce Amchitka and Attu. Increased recon determines that every Allied base is empty. "Operation Shoestring II" occurs in June as every base from Cold Bay west is taken. Late-July spots the increased Allied build-up around Cold Bay and the Invasion of Cold Bay. Here is the current deployment and status of Japanese forces: [image]local://upfiles/18041/162CA19E2FD4408DB335850AF521D18A.jpg[/image]

USSAmerica -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 4:06:22 PM)
Got my fingers crossed for you, John! [8D]

bigbaba -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 4:58:33 PM)
maybe it would be better to go for the A6M5? imho, its important to get a replacement for the A6M2 and A6M3 as carrier based fighters. judy and jills are a upgrade to val and kate, but to get them close to the enemy carriers, you need good fighter planes. although the A6M5 is a bit weaker then the hellcat, its definitly a upgrade to the earlier versions without any armor. the betty 2 isnt worth the research because it is brings very little upgrades to the betty 1

Q-Ball -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 5:19:10 PM)
A couple aircraft production notes, but good report: 1. I'm not that worried on Nakajima engines, though we may expand a few. The number "required" is inflated by Oscars and A6M3, models we are not actually building at the moment. In the near term, we are probably going to run the A6M2 pretty skinny, because it will be obsolete with the A6M3a. The M3 factory is idle, and will remain so. We can also manipulate Naka consumption by turning Helen on/off. For this reason, I expanded Sally, so that Sally is the main IJA Bomber. The other thing is that I don't anticipate producing 420 Tojos/mo after the first couple months. We expanded production to get it early, which we didn't unfortunately. We will probably produce for 3 months at that level to fill out all units and create a pool, then ramp down. BTW, I had no idea Oscar auto-upgraded to TONY in this Big B Version! The last game I played, Oscar I upgraded to Oscar II. WOW! I have to check that out. We need more Kawa engines if that is the case. 2. On IJA Bombers, we stopped producing the Lilly awhile ago. The factory is idle. We may even convert the factory soon once we get a pool of Sallys, we need some Lilly pool for reinforcements. 3. As far as researching new Aircraft, we are not in a hurry to do so. IMO, the planes worth spending supplies on to get earlier in 1943 are the Jack, Francis, Jill, Judy, Zeke in that order. From what I understand, you can't really get an advance until approx. 3-4 months before actual date. We can work slowly now on Jack to have R&D factories complete by 7/43 or so, we'll probably go JACK first. All of those models are relatively late in 1943; the early 1943 adds are not planes worth spending supplies to get earlier. As to G4M2, I look for other's opinions, but I don't think it's worth spending supplies for upgrade. The only difference is a slightly increased bombload, that's it. The Betty though is still not a good land bomber, especially when the Allies have Corsairs and Spits and other nasty planes, so I don't see that as worth it.

John 3rd -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 5:39:14 PM)
This is why I always defer to my partner in crime! He has already seen most of this and made plans for dealing with it. AMAZING! Jacks for the Navy and Franks for the Army--a wonderful combination. [&o][&o][&o] We will get Taiho, Unryu, and Katsuragi prior to the advent of A6M5, Judy, and Jill. Figure we get the trio in June 1943. With these 3 CV and CVLs Chitose and Chiyoda will can downgrade their planes to M3a, Val, and Kate while using the new planes as a 'pool' to ugrade several of our best Daitai at that point. Should serve to help some at that point.

Hornblower -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 5:52:24 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: John 3rd This is why I always defer to my partner in crime! He has already seen most of this and made plans for dealing with it. AMAZING! Jacks for the Navy and Franks for the Army--a wonderful combination. [&o][&o][&o] We will get Taiho, Unryu, and Katsuragi prior to the advent of A6M5, Judy, and Jill. Figure we get the trio in June 1943. With these 3 CV and CVLs Chitose and Chiyoda will can downgrade their planes to M3a, Val, and Kate while using the new planes as a 'pool' to ugrade several of our best Daitai at that point. Should serve to help some at that point. A good partner is as important and a good Foe in this game... and good luck..

Q-Ball -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 6:00:20 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: John 3rd This is why I always defer to my partner in crime! He has already seen most of this and made plans for dealing with it. AMAZING! Jacks for the Navy and Franks for the Army--a wonderful combination. [&o][&o][&o] We will get Taiho, Unryu, and Katsuragi prior to the advent of A6M5, Judy, and Jill. Figure we get the trio in June 1943. With these 3 CV and CVLs Chitose and Chiyoda will can downgrade their planes to M3a, Val, and Kate while using the new planes as a 'pool' to ugrade several of our best Daitai at that point. Should serve to help some at that point. Thanks, but it's a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG haul from the Tojo to the Frank. A long, interminable, pride-swallowing haul. I have 500 Franks in my pool in my other PBEM, I wish I could move a few over! Even then, a good Frank pilot will most just trade 1-1 vs. Allied, on a good day, and if you have numbers

John 3rd -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 6:29:34 PM)
Don't I know with Dan and I's game!

ny59giants -> RE: August 1, 1942 VP--Economic Report (5/13/2009 6:34:34 PM)
quote: BTW, I had no idea Oscar auto-upgraded to TONY in this Big B Version! The last game I played, Oscar I upgraded to Oscar II. WOW! I have to check that out. We need more Kawa engines if that is the case. Brad, I expect you to know how to use Tracker to see what auto upgrades to what. If John made this comment, then.....[sm=00000289.gif]

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