RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (Full Version)

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Yamato_Blitzer -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/7/2009 8:46:27 PM)

Based on alot of AAR's and other threads ive read, it's only like this for the US until 1943. Just hold out for a few more months.That is historically accurate though isn't it? the U.S.' industrial power in full didn't really become active until 1943. If the Japanese had put up THIS much audacity and daring and HADNT squabbled as much as they did in real life they probably would have made more progress. Something similiar to this. As far as Pago Pago goes, I think it's just become for you what Guadalcanal was to the U.S. in the real war.



aztez -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/7/2009 9:41:39 PM)

Yamato_Blitzer: Appreciate the comments. I do agree with your main point that is for sure.

It is not an pleasure cruise to get these results when you know you have given all you got and made only few mistakes. That is the life of PBEM though. It can be really frustrating at times. Up and downs in many ways.

I kind of need an success of somekind to retain confidence, motion of operations and most importantly throw him off balance. The same way our country needed few of these when we clashed the russians twice in WW2.

Allthough, somewhat disappointed to see this kind of speed on the advance. Especially after the fact that there has been such a numerous threads about on how it is impossible to advance, etc, etc. I have read a lot of them.

Guadacanal was an bizarre "event" of the WW2. Actually watched an documentary about the battle couple days back.

Dave is really committing his troops on relentless assaults all over the map. The bad thing about it is that I know he does not commit his forces unless he knows he is sure it will pay off in the longrun.

I do not know how effective the intel is with AE but he basically landed exactly 3:1 odds that is optium for anykind of an offense.

I expect the Pago Pago last maxium of 3 assaults with the new ground combat system.

It is getting late back here so need to head out to bed now. I still got the flu too but I cannot afford to stay away from work any longer. I have had 6 sick days in past two weeks which is a lot.

This is good thing though since I really need think next turn through with clear mind.

We could commit surface vessels into area, commit carriers into area, start evacuating Fijis, deciede where to send reinforcements, how to handle Burma front when it eventually collapses, check the status of chinese troops in the north... etc.

The list kind of goes on and the next few turns will have longterm effects on how things will prevail in the forthcoming months.

The important thing is that we will fight on and there is absolutely no talking on surrender or such. One way or the another we will pay all of this back to Dave.



Q-Ball -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/7/2009 10:21:58 PM)

Hang in there. IMO, the speed with which the Japanese can advance in AE depends less on the Allied player, and more on how skilled the Japanese player is in organizing the necessary logistical chain: Ships, Escorts, Fuel, Supplies, Troops, Engineers, Base Forces, etc. etc. etc, and converge all that stuff together at one spot.

The bright side: If he chooses to make his largest push in the Southern Pacific, then this will burn ALOT of fuel. And that is a much larger problem in AE than WITP for Japan, because that is taking right out of the mouths of industry. Even worse, he hasn't fully secured the SRA yet, so he is no doubt running a serious fuel deficit. Japan starts with a big fuel stockpile, so he doesn't hurt yet, but even if you do NOTHING it starts to draw down day 1.

This is one of the biggest adjustments IMO that Japanese players have to make. Burning fuel in ship's bunkers will reduce the number of airplanes and additional ships you can build.




Yamato_Blitzer -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/7/2009 10:50:02 PM)

But in the long run (and i think anyone will agree with this) the odds are at least 1:1. Just be patient. Keep your naval forces intact. I'd say just let him take what he's going after (fiji). It doesn't look like Australia is completely isolated even if he does succeed.

As far as China goes, Their core is poor. These losses can be expected against any reasonably experienced opponent. Looking at other AAR's this has been the case with every AE PBEM so far.

The chance will come to pull yourself out of the dirt. It seems that these are new AE early war bonuses for Japan. It seems to be the equivalent of the old WITP bonuses Japan had, the only difference is it's more historical bonuses. US industry is powering up, Japan was powering hers up for years in anticipation of this war.

If you manage to hold Australia and India you should have a pretty good chance in the long run. Because if he captures those he will have a HUGE amount of resources. But it looks like you can hold them, you are, and even if he does advance into India or OZ, by the time he does, you will have sufficient forces and pools to intervene on a meaningful scale.


I think maybe that what's happened is just more than you could have imagined. But there's really no need to despair or become overly-frustrated just yet. It'll just make for a more interesting and fun game.



Swenslim -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/7/2009 11:04:39 PM)

This is general truth of war - the attacker is always in better position than defender, because he chooses time and place where he will concentrate his punch. Defender could only react. Of cource if defender has nice intel he can set up a trap or try to wear out attacker, such was at Midway or at Kursk.

I think you are too caution with your CV's, you need try to gamble. And as I can see your use of subs is almost fruitseless, or I am wrong ?



Swenslim -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/7/2009 11:16:08 PM)

Hang in there. IMO, the speed with which the Japanese can advance in AE depends less on the Allied player, and more on how skilled the Japanese player is in organizing the necessary logistical chain: Ships, Escorts, Fuel, Supplies, Troops, Engineers, Base Forces, etc. etc. etc, and converge all that stuff together at one spot.
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I cant totally agree, for example I think Allied player at the start of the game must concentrate all his subs and CV's near route from Home Isles to Truk not (somewhere near Bonin Is) not in South China Sea. That is because japan player moving lightly protected convoys to Truk simply because he has not enough destroyers (all they conducting convoys to Malaya and Luzon).

In my game I freely moved AIR HQ, Zeros, Bettys and dozens engeneers to Truk and Rabaul units in lmid December with cover of few destroyers and PB boats because I saw that all allied subs are in China sea. For first 2 month of game I dont have to move oil and resources exept from Hokkaido and some close chinise ports, so this subs are doing nothing. At other point I get succes singing many allied tankers and AK because I new that allied player will rush them to supply Australia, Pago Pago, Chrismas Is, and other.



Yamato_Blitzer -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 12:06:45 AM)

This is a waiting period, as always. Just gotta wait for the playing field to even out a little bit. IIRC he only has 2 operational CV's at the moment. IMHO that probably won't be a gamble, but a sure loss. On the other hand, I think it's important to keep in mind that the fact that he only has 2 CV's could make Dave complacent and ignorant to the fact. That could potentially be turned into an advantage, but still, it would be quite the gamble. I think the best thing to do is wait for reinforcements. Because if Dave does destroy what naval power he has now he's done for. But yes, there is no better spot for his subs than around HI. Dave has obviously concentrated immense naval power within the sphere of his invasion forces in the south. I doubt Allied subs will achieve much in those areas, especially at this early time in the game. The odds are totally stacked against them and 8/10 allied torpedoes will fail to detonate.

For now I really believe the best thing to do is hunker down and take minor actions to distrupt Dave. Because by the time he gets to any really decisive objectives beyond Fiji aztez will be able to intervene with decent odds. It won't be a huge loss IMHO. But if he sends in his major naval forces to any important area right now, odds are he will be destroyed, and for what? I think it's far to late to save Samoa and Fiji anyways, Dave is already fully commited and is gonna throw in whatever it takes to be successful, he already more or less has.

On a strategic level it looks as though Dave is encircling OZ and he might land there before aztez can do anything about it. But I can't see him conquering OZ proper before aztez can decisively intervene.

Good luck aztez.



LoBaron -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 12:29:22 AM)

Hey aztez then keep Fijis.

Just the same ideas as for Pago. i think the idea transferring carrier planes is still good option.

And Q-ball really has a point about the fuel usage.



Rob Brennan UK -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 1:14:53 AM)

Hang on in there my friend ! .. its dark times right now but it WILL get better eventually.

As for japanese intel on pago i doubt he had any tbh .maybe he looked at allied reinforcements and guessed what you could send there and planned for that ?

Janap running in all directions has to hurt him somewhere else and imo he's depleting his fuel reserves very significantly. and in AE that means he's potentially starving his HI (maybe not now but he'll run out sooner or later). I 'think' he's blitzing regardless of naional production cost to get as much territory as possible and try to rebuild stocks while your chipping away at the edges of his far flung empire. give it 9 months and you'll be in a position to start heavily assaulting his pacific gains. Maybe think of going staraight down the middle and leave his hard earned SW pac bases as POW camps .. so many small islands dotted around getting a cordon to cut off his SW pac gains wont be too hard once you have enough men and shipping to do it.

So all in all .. cheer up .. just think you'll be doing it to him somrtime in the future [:D]



SuluSea -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 4:17:43 AM)

Well, atleast he lost his first 4 months Japanese invasion bonus. [:D] 


What is your situation on the Pago Pago and Suva regarding troops, forts, air fields / port size?


Keep plugging away Aztez


quote:



Rob Brennan UK


You can fly them to ledo via some size 3 NW chinese base (cant remember the name off hand) then upgrade using commonwealth supplies. And i was wrong on the chinese P40's they arrive 12/42 , its the lancers in 4/42 and a20's follow on soon. but i cant see the lancer being much of an improvement over the exisiting flying rubbish the chinese operate D . AVG will upgrade to P40's peoviding spares for the other sqds.



I just had a thought (rare) , to save supply in china try and move the chinese bombers (fighters wont have the range) to india for a v long training schedule. bomber training seems to gobble up supply quite fast.


Super advice in this thread Rob <thumbs up> Thanks.



skrewball -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 8:12:45 AM)

As a JFB I love watching the Japanese running over the Allies! However, one aspect I love about playing the Allies is that you get to run a guerrilla war against the Japanese. Any JFB knows that he is running against a clock. So as the Allies you should consider every ship sunk, every plane shot down and every day you delay an invasion as a victory!

To a JFB, anything lost early in the war is something he knows will come to bite him in the a$$ later on! One less transport for quickly moving supplies, one less trained pilot to combat late war Allied Aircraft and lasting regret that a simple invasion took a day longer than anticipated. 

Launch a carrier raid on a remote outpost. Airfield hits = damage. Damage requires supply. So now that is one more supply run he has to do. Place a squadron of B-17s at Darwin, strike anything you can within range. He'll have to tie down fighter squadrons guessing where you'll strike next. Until he decides to take Darwin, further extending his supply lines. Remember a single mosquito is tiny...but it sure can annoy the hell out of a giant human [;)]

Honestly I think this is the most fun part of the game! Enjoy it before you get tied down to the tedium of the growing Allied war machine.



LoBaron -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 12:03:00 PM)

Hey Aztez!

i kept my last post short to reduce the impact of several beers on it to a minimum. if your talking gets sluggish
you better be careful with typing.... [sm=party-smiley-012.gif]


ok back on topic...

first thing is that the invasion of Pago doesnt exactly come as a surprize.
every other move he could have done would have benefited less to the goal he wants to achieve.
(i mean his obvious closing down of the SPac, not that i know anything about his grand strategy behind this move)

so this really does not change the situation in a way we did not talk about before. nothing to be disappointed or
demotivated about (i know thats much easier to say if you are only watching from a distance)

second thing is that just by watching we get much information about his playstyle.

you already said that he is a very considerate player.

he is VERY careful in planning major operations. the use of force in SPac attack shows that if theres risk involved
he takes his time setting the long term goal of the attack and puzzles his forces together to be able to counter any
possible reaction. i salute to that.

on the other hand this could be used in your favour:

to be this effective on the attack IMO the planning for Savaii/Pago/Fiji(?) had to start a long time ago. at least id calculate 5-7 weeks
before he actually started moving the invasion TF in the target direction.
he had to estimate your troop/AC strengh based on what the allies have there from the beginning and what you have been able to
reinforce since then. i think he is careful enough to tend to overestimate your reinforcing abilities and makes sure he packs
such a punch that you wont have a chance to hold out.

this has one dire consequence: japan simply cannot handle 2 naval operations of this size at the same time (im not counting the invasion
of timor as anything close to major there)

what this gives you is TIME [:)]

australia with the mini KB? no way
india if you have set up a defensive perimeter? i dont think so
PH? dont make me laugh

so until he does not want to go any farther, no matter if you can hold the Fijis or not i would not expect
any large scale naval invasion of the above areas in the next 2 months (not sure if this is an optimistic guess).

so if you try maximum effort to turn these areas into fortresses his next grand scale operation
might find a much tougher target.

add to this his fuel usage and the fact he has so many fronts now that he has to do wild guesswork
where you gonna counterattack first - maybe he is right now biting more than he can chew.

id fight for the Fijis. not only because i still think its strategically important but also because the longer you
delay him here the more time you buy for your other strategic areas.

if you can reeinforce do it, if you can send carrier planes there in time do it, if you can clutter the area with subs,
effective or not - every DC hes using reduces his ASW capabilities the next day - do it.
make him think you REALLY want to fight for this.

but have no feelings for the Fijis, buy your time there and fight like hell if possible. and behind that concentrate on the areas
where he has to go in with KB and everything else he got to guarantee success - and make that expedition even harder.

i think SPac may not be the operation where the Japanes turn to be on the receiving end. but with careful planning the next one will.


sorry for this large post. in know myself well enough to be sure that some of the paragraphs are redundant... [:D]

keep up the fight!







aztez -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 6:38:08 PM)

It was one of those work days too so I think we hit an snowball effect. First the AE turn and now the work day.

Enough of that though. I did already sent the next turn back to him and I think it was wise not to do the turn while emotions are running. That way leads to further disasters.

Now, I want to say thanks to all the people who posted (and have followed this journey by looking at the actual hits this thread has recieved. Well that is something I still have trouble of understanding) since sometimes you just need some encouragement and that is worth its weight on gold.

Q-Ball: Thanks, appreciate the kind words. Intresting note on the fuel issue since he really has been pushing forward.

I take your word on the fact that his fuel deposits must be running low. The good thing for him is that my recon shows that Palempang and Balikpapan resources are almost completely intact. Only place where the resources are badly damaged is Miri.

We shall if this offensive winds down a bit soon, It should if the above estimate is correct.

I actually diverted the troop reinforcements into Christmas Island. There should be enough soon to repulse anykind of an offensive operation.

Also I decieded not to intervene with his transports unloading at Pago Pago due to the fact that KB has now disappeared and he most likely has some sort of an aircover provided from Savaii. These circumstances have disaster written all over it.

I have also decieded to abandon Tahiti. No need to have troops there yet since I cannot put the numbers required to actually firmly hold it.

Yamato_Blitzer: Wise words in my opinion. The US carriers will not enter the Samoa region now. With the no respawn rule I cannot afford to do this.

The situation would be very diffrent IF the RN carriers would be already in the pacific. They are actually some 20 days off Balboa now. So, soon I can place 3 US, 3 RN and CVL Hermes into action. The CV Wasp will be deployed +60 days from now. That kind of force does give me some muscle to even tangle with KB if it shows up.

Yeah, china seems to disaster waiting to happen for allied side. Those av numbers are kind of betraying due to poor level of experience and equipment. The chinese cannot go toe to toe againts experience infantry or armoured units.

Currently I have some 3400av worth chinese troops behind almost level 5 forts at Sian. Only worry is the supply situation which is not good. Those disabled chinese units were sent to Chungking for rest immediately.

Personally I think the china theatre should require some tweaking in forthcoming patches but that is up to AE team to do. At the moment I think it is not balanced on the facts stated earlier.

I think India is quite safe and Oz is huge country. I know he will land at northern Oz and I will contest that with large force, If he deciedes to move towards south than it is quite an diffrent story. India is building up day by day. Only problem is those troops hit by the strategic movement bug. They are moving very slowly on move orders towards southern areas here.

Burma is done deal. I have some +400 av points at Schwebo behind level 3 forts. He has some 20 units at Mandalay worth of +1000av points so I'am thinking of moving my troops towards Myithkina for better defensive options. Either way this theatre will soon be conquered.

You are correct but PBEM is momentum game and when you start second guessing your options than it becomes problematic. That is the way human nature works and really it is as of game mechanics than it is real life psychology.

I concur that the large scale CV operations are not at my best intrest. Maybe some raids when opportunity present itself but nothing more. I will be getting Hellcats and better divebombers soon enough.

Also I concur that it might be worth the effort to evacuate those troops at Fiji into NZ. I have some 600av points there in grand total including 90% of an US division. It is somewhat risky business to evac these troops though but I might be able to pull it off since I still got some 100 operational fighters there now that I send them out of Pago Pago.

Swenslim: Absolutely. The attacker dictates the momentum that is why it is better to be on offensive phase than to wait for hammer to fall on you. Add few succesfull operations and your opponent will be in trouble many ways.

I would love to gamble and If I had those RN carriers at my disposal than we might even have moved towards Pago Pago. Now, the gamble might be too risky since I do not want lose these operational ships for some adventure which has no real benefits for future campaigns. Keep in mind that the gc has no respawn as an standard rule.

That initial submarine strategy is propably very wise move, Unfortunately I did send to Luzon area initially so too late to swell on this now. At the moment I'am starting to conduct the kind of submarine warfare we talked about in great detail earlier. If the reports are correct we have hit 4 AK's near the home islands in past two weeks and our submarine fleet is still scattered around the pacific. This new strategy will not get the full motion swing before autumn or late summer 1942.

Rob: Thanks. I will most definately try to hold out.

That is the assumption I came to think too. It is quite easy to estimate the maxium number of defenders on any key base from the start. The allied reinforcements are also fixed so I guess he prepared for the worst case scenario. I even think he had some sort of an floating reserve nearby just in case I had more than this defending the base.

The straight arrow towards Japan is definately an possibility. I was forced to do it in 1st game we had and I'am not shy on doing that kind of an move yet again. It is still somewhat early to deciede on this though. I shall gather enough troops and than make my moves and when we start going forward than we shall not stop even if the losses are high.

The only problematic thing is the movement of lba aircraft on future operations. It is an tricky business and can cause some real problems. I have already think about this even if we are on the defensive stance now.

SuluSea: Talking about thinking positive aren't we!

I'am happy that those bonuses start to vanish since they didn't seem much to start with but were more than I bargained for.

You can see the Pago Pago defenders from the previous combat report post. I doubt they will hold on for long. Maxium of 2-3 shock assaults I think.

The airfield at Pago Pago is 4/4 and Suva 6/7. So few nice airfields he is aiming for and another thing is that these base do not have maxium troop garrisons. Thus making them quite an obvious targets.

Fijis a have grand total of 550-600av points there which Suva has +400av worth of troops. Nandi has the remaining units.

I do not remember the ports on top of my hat but I think the ports were improved a bit from the original size.

skrewball: It is most certainly quite diffrent warfare you are trying to conduct at the beginning. Dave is propably running againts the clock here as you said and that is why he trying to hurt me as much as possible from the start. The greater my losses will get the slower I can move forward. That ideology kind of ask for large scale offensives from the get go.

Hmmm, taking those delays into consideration than maybe it is worth keeping those troops at Fiji's. I mean to order to capture it he needs to bring in another significant number of troops there. He also needs to commit more transports on this operation. In whole scale scenario I "only" would 90% of an US division plus brigades and supporting troops. Well, need to think this through.

I moved those B17's into NZ for rest and refit but Darwin might be most optium place to have them now. It would also force him to land at northern oz too. The problem is that I still do not have enough bombers to conduct large strikes. I mean not just yet at least.

What you say about supplies though make total sense and it is at most very annoying in the longrun.

I will do my best and not to worry I shall not give up this. Dave have hurt my pride somewhat. So, I eagerly wait for the chance to pay him the same courtesy.

Thanks for the kind words.

LoBaron: I can fully understand the power of those beers. Even the might of KB does not look too strong after few of them. That is why I keep my fingers out of PC when celebrating you might just get too bright ideas for your own good.

No, it was not an complete suprise but the timing was since I did not expect him here for an month or so. That is why I was shocked to see him here. We will get the first ground combats next turn from this battle. Hopefully the allied firepower is greater than those av numbers show.

Yeah, that is true. Every single opponent has playing style which is unique. Dave is very careful player who calculates a lot. I only have seen him react impulsive few times in our games. So, everything is planned and all the details are counted and weight in. It sometimes hard to see this when you are playing againts someone and it is easier to see it from the "outside". I have seen few of these patterns on the AAR's I have followed and immeaditely thought that this will happen next. A lot of times it has gone like I "predicted".

The above is also an key factor why I think it is better to give out much information in regular basis so it will be more intresting to follow the game and maybe give some comments.

Time is on my side and this the only other place where I hope it would move faster. That is kind of normal work day at the office!

I think we shall see an invasion of Suva in 2-4 weeks time. He is most likely prepared for this already in many ways. As for the defending the base well it might be worth it as stated above but I think it waste of time moving in more reinforcements.

The are more submarines enroute. Those are the smaller S-class subs so their torpedoes should be somewhat effective from the start.

As for moving out carrier aircraft into Fiji. I doubt it would be wise move since as said those RN carriers are 30-40 days off from rendevouz with the US ones. So, I think I'am better off leaving those highly trained pilots into ships for the time being.

Personally I feel he will conduct 2-3 larger naval operations/offensives before he is satisfied and starts his defensive plans. The targets are unclear though.

Really no need to apoligize for comments nor long post. This is an friendly AAR and everyone can gather info that can be used on their games ongoing or about to start.

Appreciate the comments.



LoBaron -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 7:34:42 PM)

tbh aztez i think you already have a sound plan how to cope with the situation.
please dont misunderstand my enthusiasm for this aar as trying to be a wisecrack (is that the word?)


btw you guys made it.

im a happy owner of AE now.

all those sleepless nights. i know they are coming. [8D]



aztez -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 9:11:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

tbh aztez i think you already have a sound plan how to cope with the situation.
please dont misunderstand my enthusiasm for this aar as trying to be a wisecrack (is that the word?)


btw you guys made it.

im a happy owner of AE now.

all those sleepless nights. i know they are coming. [8D]


Congrats on the money well spend! [:D]

This monster most definately can come into your thoughts at night. At least that what people say here. I have so far been saved from this scenario.

I don't know whether "wisecrack" is an word but propably not!

I might have an plan but it is always nice to see debates, views and such. That is the only way to improve your own gameplay and that is what we all aim for.

I have my own "plans" but I can say that I have integrated a lot fresh ideas from this thread and forum into these. You cannot change the basis of your own gameplay but you can learn a lot.

This is most definately the best performance I have made in PBEM so far. These include those games in the classic witp. I know it might not see this way at the moment but that is 100% truth. Too bad my opponent has improved his play even further! [:D]

No turn tonight and I have busy schedule tomorrow so the next update might be at saturday.

I aim to do it tomorrow but cannot promise that for certain.



Yamato_Blitzer -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 10:10:27 PM)

I wouldn't worry to much. You're doing fine. That's why there's no reason to despair at all just yet. At least a few decisive battles have yet to pass. Clearly 1943 will be the decisive year and you do have a good chance. It'll just be fun and it'll be fun to read every report.

China again....Most players after commiting these same blunders seem to have resorted to holding key cities and that seems to work the best, meeting the Japanese in the open field is a no no. I've seen many players (and myself) finding this out the hard way. But it isn't all lost in China afterwards, it really isn't. Just be very cautious. I think this does reflect historical accuracy too. Historically the Chinese were forced to retreat into the depths of China and couldn't really meet the Japanese in major open engagements without suffering horrendously. In the game, as was in real life, the best thing to do is conduct Guerilla warfare and keep major units in major forward cities. Send small raiding parties to distrupt Japanese supply, engage their smaller units behind enemy lines if you can to bog them down. Do everything you can to simply bog them down until a brighter day comes along.


My congrats to you for making your first AE game a PBEM game. There's alot of learning curves that I had the chance to learn against the AI and reading other AAR's



loricas -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 11:11:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yamato_Blitzer
China again.... I think this does reflect historical accuracy too. Historically the Chinese were forced to retreat into the depths of China and couldn't really meet the Japanese in major open engagements without suffering horrendously.

yes in 37-39: from 40-44 the front is around the same of set-up as both nationalist and red army keep all that can spare for the future civil war and japan have another front open
in 44 a major japan spring offensive was succesfull as they concentrate a huge force. in AE that happen after two week, in winter.




crsutton -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 11:26:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

This is general truth of war - the attacker is always in better position than defender, because he chooses time and place where he will concentrate his punch. Defender could only react. Of cource if defender has nice intel he can set up a trap or try to wear out attacker, such was at Midway or at Kursk.

I think you are too caution with your CV's, you need try to gamble. And as I can see your use of subs is almost fruitseless, or I am wrong ?



Nope, I disagree here. If you have lost two carriers then you can not afford to gamble. It is the first rule of poker. You never gamble more then you can afford to lose and here it is your remaining carriers.

I would look to use your carriers wherever KB is not. Kill as many cheap merchies as you can. It will pay you in spades later.



crsutton -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/8/2009 11:45:37 PM)

Aztec,

Thanks for this AAR and thanks to you and your partner for playing so dang fast [:D] I have two pbemails going as the Allies. One is four weeks into it and the other is six. I am using this AAR as a valuable learning too. I think the biggest thing I have learned is that you just can't use your carrier in any major way for the first six months of the war. One, the replacement rate is just too slow for your aircraft and second, the biggest foil to Japanese intentions is an intact American carrier fleet. I don't think your opponent could be so ambitious if he knew all of your carriers were available. The ideal is to hold them back until they have all avengers, the fighter groups have expanded and they have gone through a couple of upgrades to up thier AA value. I am thinking that a major fight can't be risked until after July 1942.

I am alarmed by the rate of ground combat. I am especially worried about China and concerned about the effect of massive artillery stacks. However, I expect that later in the war, the Japanese units are going to feel the same sort of pressure, so perhaps it will work out. It sounds like you are just up against an exceptionally good player and will just have to do the "rope a dope" until you wear him down a bit.

I have discovered in my practice game that with Cape Town now in the picture that it is virtually impossible for Japan to cut Oz off and I suspect that any Islands grabbed in the central and South Pacific are just as easily lost. Naval air power is the key to any island campaign and that is just not going to last forever for Japan.

Keep the faith, bro....



Yamato_Blitzer -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 1:04:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loricas


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yamato_Blitzer
China again.... I think this does reflect historical accuracy too. Historically the Chinese were forced to retreat into the depths of China and couldn't really meet the Japanese in major open engagements without suffering horrendously.

yes in 37-39: from 40-44 the front is around the same of set-up as both nationalist and red army keep all that can spare for the future civil war and japan have another front open
in 44 a major japan spring offensive was succesfull as they concentrate a huge force. in AE that happen after two week, in winter.


Yea I agree. It stayed the same later on because after a while the Chinese didn't really confront the Japanese in the open in any major way and aztez needs to adopt that same policy for at least another year. Clearly it's simply impossible to defeat the Japanese head on in the field or at least break even and keep them from heading towards Chinese cities at will, you can slow them down but that's about it. It seems that all you can do is mass on the cities themselves because that is the best option left and seemingly the only option to avoid catastrophe. There are enough Chinese units to hide behind the forts and hold the line enough to insure that Dave doesn't completely over-run the country or to at least slow him down a good deal, which itself is decisive.

If Dave does start to over-run China and there's no stopping it with the immediate forces available in the country, aztez is gonna have to save it from being conquered. It will be possible to intervene from the outside if needed, but can be high risk. By either lending troops directly or engaging in a major offensive elsewhere to divert Japanese resources.

This will be in 1943 when U.S. industry comes to nearing full tilt, so at least it'll be possible and if cards are played right, it could have a good chance of success.

Despite the horrific losses I think aztez can still hold China with just Chinese units. It's alot of Chinese bodies and alot of miles for Dave to carve through, considering that he's commiting major advances in so many different directions through out the pacific and Asia. In all honesty I think it's folly that he's even bothering with these major offensives in China right now. It's just another major grind on the huge amount of resources he needs for the deep south.



Yamato_Blitzer -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 1:12:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Swenslim

This is general truth of war - the attacker is always in better position than defender, because he chooses time and place where he will concentrate his punch. Defender could only react. Of cource if defender has nice intel he can set up a trap or try to wear out attacker, such was at Midway or at Kursk.

I think you are too caution with your CV's, you need try to gamble. And as I can see your use of subs is almost fruitseless, or I am wrong ?



Nope, I disagree here. If you have lost two carriers then you can not afford to gamble. It is the first rule of poker. You never gamble more then you can afford to lose and here it is your remaining carriers.

I would look to use your carriers wherever KB is not. Kill as many cheap merchies as you can. It will pay you in spades later.

I agree with this. It's not a fair gamble at all. It's an unnecessary gamble too.

Time isn't that much of a problem here. If it was then yea, he would have no choice but to toss the dice. It isn't worth it to risk almost certain death of 2 CV's. Even if he did win tactically I don't think it would achieve much in the strategic short run (which is the most decisive factor right now imo), he would most certainly lose at least 1 CV and It would prolly be a carrier trade, if not maybe 2 Japanese carriers for 1 Allied carrier, if he got lucky and the Japanese could keep advancing anyways, so it would achieve nothing, unless he got really lucky and traded 1 allied cv for 2 jap ones. Better to mass up and strike later. No need to run in there right now in a panick.


This is just my two cents.



seydlitz_slith -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 3:58:55 AM)

I have been giving a lot of thought to Dave's advance and where you could actually shake him up and get away with it.

The answer is here.....

[image]local://upfiles/6829/969B0F58E62E4E8EB322D331CB12EB91.jpg[/image]



seydlitz_slith -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 4:26:25 AM)

I would land a force at Chi Chi Jima and Haha Jima in the Bonins. Chichi has a small (6 AV) base force and fortress unit (but no fort levels). Haha is undefended. Chich is a level 2 AF and Haha Lvl 1. These islands are the natural ferry bridge for planes heading to Rabaul and lie across the shipping lanes for shipping going to Truk. It is within Betty range of Honshu, but my guess is that his Betties are much farther south, as are most of his naval forces.

In AE, tasks forces are normally not spotted if they are over 12 hexes from the spotting unit. It is possible to do a run in to these islands while staying over 12 hexes from Honshu and also staying north of Wake and Marcus. If you loaded two landing forces on the west coast to include base forces, you could land, capture both islands and immediately establish an air presence since both have airfields. A unit of Catalinas flying from there would spot most of his traffic and a unit of medium bombers would threaten his shipping too far out for him to LRCAP.

He would have no choice but to pull in considerable forces to address the threat and it would upset his applecart by forcing him to divert forces from the perimeter back close to home.

If you load and move to an open water hex in the north or central pacific and hold on station until he uses his carriers somewhere down south then you can do this without needing to risk your carriers and give him that "uh oh" moment when he realizes that his carriers and other good units are too far south to do anything.

Even after he kicks you out, which could take a while depending on how far he has to bring forces and what you put on the island (note-island, not atoll), then he will forever be paranoid and will tie up forces there and in other places to keep this from happening again. It is the witp equivalent of the Doolittle Raid. The Japanese player's heart skips a beat as he realizes how vulnerable his perimeter is in this area. Two thoughts immediately go through his mind. 1. Your B-17s can bomb Tokyo from there (not that you would with only a lvl 2 AF, but Catalinas flying at night can have regular fun) and 2. The enemy now controls a significant base that exposes all of his sea movements towards his base at Truk and southern areas below. He will then realize that to get planes to Truk he has to ferry them to Takao, the Philippines, Palau, and then east. Same with his shipping. He would have to send everything west and down around Takao.

This makes good hunting for your subs. Around the islands initially and enjoying catalina spotters then later when we reroutes shipping to the area around Takao.

I guarantee that you would get some satisfaction out this simply from the shake up factor that you would inflict.

Here is what Chichi looks like at game start. I have never seen a Japanese player do anything to reinforce this area before 1943 at all.



[image]local://upfiles/6829/39133B0BF5744209B42C4824ADAF1A43.jpg[/image]



offenseman -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 4:38:57 AM)

That would be a gutsy move and I like it.  Remind me to watch out for the rear areas if we even play against each other.  



SuluSea -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 5:19:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: aztez



How is possible? Here are few views that you can agree or disagree. These are from allied perspective.

1. The nerfed allied fighter production. This is really bad since you do not have much. At the moment I have 3 operational US carriers and if I commit them into battle and we draw than that is an japanese victory since the depleted pools mean that those carriers are out of operations for months. ie. You cannot protect china if japanese bring in extra aircover etc, etc.



No question,


quote:

2. The ground combat with treats low experienced troops as ants. The best thing to do is to get out of the way with these troops thus meaning that run and hide until 1943 enters. There are plenty of good examples in this thread already. I have read the same kind of results in other threads too.


I love this game but the China aspect is a joke. The troops are nothing more than dead meat, anywhere the steamroller wants to drive it goes. Level 3, level four forts mean little but a 2 day delay before the troops get routed. If it weren't for some success with the AVG I'd just as soon march the troops into the South China Sea and save myself hours upon hours of work aweek just to see the same result as if I did nothing at all.

I laugh at all the PPs I've wasted in China on the best leaders for the respective units. meaningless waste of PPs.

I believe the main culprit behind this is the paltry force required for the Manchuko Garrison before the Soviets gets activated. Once the japanese bring in Armor and the big guns from Manchucko, game over for the chinese peasants. Some japanese fanboy on the beta team must have been lobbying hard for the low garrison requirements because in every game this isn't even close to historically correct.
.



cfulbright -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 5:50:05 AM)

Seydlitz - You beat me to the punch line. I've been thinking that no one pursues the North Pacific Theater. What you are proposing in the Bonin Islands is essentially that. You also could hit some of his Kurile Island bases on the way in and out.

Good luck.



LoBaron -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 7:00:35 AM)

Wow seydlitz. Bold move. And it really could disrupt/delay his plans.

a few problems that i notice while thinking about it:

- its close to Japan and the Philipines, reaction time maybe 3 days for warships
if he got a strategical reserve and very easy to bring a substantial ammount of planes in from
both places (at least zeros which have the legs to do it)

- Aztez would have to avoid detection from both Marcus Islands and Japan, even maybe from Saipan
i would have at least 1 Mavis/Emily Unit on the small islands and at least 2 LR Patrol formations on the mainland.

if these pick his fleet up chances are that he got more than 3 days reaction time. and as Japan i would react very aggressive
to a fleet on western heading towards my flank. might ruin my timeplan but id at leasr feel confident with an early deciding battle,
even if i do it on the invasions return leg.

Very interesting plan though and a success could change the situation quite a bit.

btw i hope thats no recent map from your own AAR...could be BMatch is watching this AAR, at least i would.






Sardaukar -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 7:02:24 AM)

Nice one with those islands. They are classed as Small islands in manual appending and can hold 30 000 troops without penalties. Supplying them would be painful, though. 



Swenslim -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 7:18:03 AM)

Ha ! Now in my games I will put more air search units at Marcus, Bonins and Kuril Is, and maybe have 1 CV and 1 CVE at Kobe :)



Fishbed -> RE: Japanese advance in china and land at Pago Pago... (10/9/2009 7:31:16 AM)

I am very enthusiastic about such an ops too. But I can only share the very right comments I have seen so far. To me, such an operation should be led by a very fast transport force (APDs) covered with limited surface assets, for the losses wouldn't outweight the gains. The best configuration to me is something that will hit him the most while costing you the less, of course. They have to get there, land everyone in a day and a half, and leave, leave, if they don't get spotted on the way in. Any operation there will be a one-way ticket for the troops, so we have to choose them carefully keeping this in mind.

It would even give you some time to invest Marcus Island too (which, if you can keep it, may very well become a hell of a thorn with the needed long-range assets)



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