RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (Full Version)

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bradfordkay -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 5:24:17 PM)

Personally, I think that sour mash gives better insight than tea leaves.... [;)]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 5:25:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think New Zealand is critical to the Allies unless Japan also has made important inroads in other areas, particularly India or Australia. NZ offers good points for bases and for wiping out troops, but not nearly enough to pose an auto-victory threat by itself. NZ would also be at the end of a very lengthy and vulnerable LOC from Truk/Rabaul. But if you cobble together New Zealand, Fiji, Noumea, non-reinforcement parts of Oz, and strategic bombing in Oz, you might have enough.

Man, I'm starting to perspire just thinking about all the possibilities. I really will have to be diligent in reading the tea leaves in order to get a handle on what Japan might be up to.


I agree that NZ is a mixed bag. However, it is isolated, pretty large, and has great ports and airfields to sortie from to sever the WC to Oz leg. I think Noumea "probably" also has to be picked up by the Japanese on the way south to make it work.

One advantage to a "Chinese Menu" auto-vic strategy ("One from Column A, Two from Column B"--if it catches on I want credit!!![:)]) is that until relatively late it looks pretty much like a standard Japanese defensive perimeter start. An India or all-Oz has to advertise what it is pretty early, while a pecking strategy doesn't. I think NZ would be a tipping point/face slap for the Allies' realization, which is why it would come late, or last. If the Japanese go hard for NZ they're not fooling around thinking of 1943.



witpqs -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 5:37:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

("One from Column A, Two from Column B"--if it catches on I want credit!!![:)])


[&:] Do you have any idea how old that metaphor is? [>:]

[:D]




Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 7:04:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Having been on the receiving end of Scenario 2, it does seem entirely possible for Japan to take all of the Hawaiian Is (4000 pts plus all the damaged ships plus the destroyed planes plus the garrison [X(]).


My hunch is that Hawaii isn't enough for auto-victory purposes. I recently asked Q-Ball his opinion and he agreed, and I think he's a more knowledgeable source than am I. Of course, Hawaii plus boukoup other high value pieces might be enough to cobble together auto victory points.

P.S. It's about time for somebody to pipe in: 'I hate auto victory. I play for the experience, not for an artificial measure." Poo! I LOVE the threat of auto victory. At least in Scenario Two against a good Japanese opponent, it will add a measure of excitement and stress that is nearly unbeatable. I don't want to be the first Allied player to suffer such a defeat, so the pressure is on! Without that threat, it would just be another five year march to ultimate Allied victory.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 7:23:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

("One from Column A, Two from Column B"--if it catches on I want credit!!![:)])


[&:] Do you have any idea how old that metaphor is? [>:]

[:D]




I know it was the tag line of a famous 1960s commercial, which I watched live several hundred times.

Before that, without research, Charlie Chan movies?

I'm not looking for a copyright on the line, just a circle R for use with AE.[8D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 8:07:37 PM)

12/7/42 - Preliminary Assessment

I have a bunch going on this afternoon, so it will be awhile before I can pour over the combat report and turn file to see exactly what happened on the opening day of the war, but some preliminary observations:

Talk about Port Strikes! One? Two? Nah, let's try for five! That's right, sneaky Chez orders strikes at Pearl, Manila, Davao, Hong Kong, and Rangoon. My impression of each:

Pearl Harbor: This strike is effective, with two BBs sunk and another very close to going under. I also lost two DDs. Will Chez stick around for another turn? See my thoughts below.

Manila: At first glance, this strike didn't appear overly effective. Perhaps ten subs take some damage, but none were sunk.

Davao: An AVD damaged in port.

Hong Kong: A bunch of merchant ships sunk and heavily damaged.

Rangoon: All but two ships sunk - which means alot of xAK, xAKL, and HTML. The two remaining ships were heavily damaged.

Allied Combat Ships: With the exception of Pearl Harbor, none of the Allied combat ships were damaged. It appears that the Mini-KB is located SE of Davao. CA Houston is well to the north, breaking for Midway. CA Boise is well to the NW in hopes of escaping off Borneo's west coast. Force Z and all DEI ships weren't molested.

On the Ground: No big surprises here; no crazy "leaps forward beyond all reason." Landings are taking place in Malaya at Kuantan and Kota Bharu.

Allied Revenge: Plunger put a torpedo into CV Shokaku - damage reported as "fires" only. I'm guessing damage somewhere in the 20-30 ranges for various categtories.

What Now: Q-Ball hit Pearl Harbor effectively four days in a row. I don't know what Chez planned, but having a damaged CV may influence him a bit. He's got a long way to go post strike, and that journey will be slowed by the damaged carrier. I'm probably going to flood the likely sea lanes with small DD and PT TFs hoping for mid-ocean intercepts. I may also try to hide a few damaged ships in nearby ports, hoping to evade a second-day strike, if any.



bradfordkay -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/22/2011 9:18:39 PM)

"Allied Revenge: Plunger put a torpedo into CV Shokaku - damage reported as "fires" only. I'm guessing damage somewhere in the 20-30 ranges for various categtories."

Shokaku is Chez' Saratoga - a torpedo magnet. I think that I've torpedoed her three times already in our game - and he has torpedoed the Sara twice!

"On the Ground: No big surprises here; no crazy "leaps forward beyond all reason."

This is one reason why he and I hooked up as opponents in the first place. We both prefer to play an historically plausible game... he will surprise you but he won't make "gamey" moves.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 3:59:29 AM)

Busy day at work, then had to work hard and fast to issue orders for December 8. Meaning a recapitulation of Pearl Harbor day damage will have to wait until tomorrow. Here's the major orders issued:

Hawaii: At least five TFs comprised of four DDs each to steam from Pearl west, WNW, and NW towards possible KB locations; one CA/CL/DD force to to do the same; two PT TFs to do the same; subs to try to "clog the channels" leading towards Kwaj and Truk. I've moved three fighter squadrons to Hilo, where I'm sending some light-to-moderately damaged ships, including one BB. I lost California and Nevada today, and Oklahoma is a lock to go down if anything else happens tomorrow.

NoPac: About eight West Coast DDs to make for Kodiak.

Oz: Long-legged xAPs and xAKs to make for Capetown or Balboa. The usual cruiser/destroyer forces to make for Rabaul.

Philippines: All damaged subs with "long-legs" to run mine-laying routes to various ports including Pescadores and Wake before retiring to Pearl Harbor. Remaining subs to cover various choke points. Two PT boat squadrons to patrol to the west. Minesweepers to try to clear the channel. About half the remaining shipping to flee in various directions. Hong Kong DDs and MTBs to make for two Luzon ports to target enemy shipping.

DEI: Force Z and some Dutch cruisers to rendezvous at Pontianak, from whence they will consider strikes. Additional Dutch and American combat ships to rendezvous at Ambon and/or Bola, preparing for a possible raid against Babeldaob. All long-legged xAPs and xAKs to make for Capetown. Shorter legged ones to try to carry supplies or fuel east to Oz.

Singapore: Various minelayers from Singers and nearby ports to lay a carpet at Kuching. Most other ships to proceed through the Sunda Straits bound for Cocos Island and thence Colombo.

Burma: Two AVG squadrons posted at Rangoon. American transport squadrons that begins in China "bought" and moved to Port Blair. Will begin working on evac immediately (which reminds me that I need to start moving the long-legged patrol aircraft at Pearl step-by-step to the DEI and Philippines to assist with evac of certain units - both garrison forces to Java and base forces to safety in Oz, China, or Port Blair).



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 2:52:23 PM)

Ships sunk on December 7, 1941.

This was not a particularly bad day for the Allies, but it will get much worse if the KB strikes Pearl Harbor again tomorrow.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/1A635DD0121A45368DB36A0203AD917C.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 2:53:03 PM)

Here are the damaged ships at Pearl. One more stiff breeze and Oklahoma will go under.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/FFCDA824069F47B4888FEE20BC4F7D79.jpg[/image]



bradfordkay -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 4:44:00 PM)

Since her fires are out and she is in a good port, I'd say that you have a decent chance of saving the Oklahoma. Of course, even if you do she is out of the action for a couple of years. It should take over a year to bring the WeeVee and Pennsylvania back into the fray as well. Luckily, these are just old, slow BBs... 



Miller -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 5:14:09 PM)

Good luck in this new game Dan, just a shame your other opponent seems to have lost interest.



John 3rd -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 5:37:56 PM)

Boy--That was an excellent PH Strike for Japan.



crsutton -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 8:49:44 PM)

I have often wondered why JFBs don't like the historical first day. Yes, I know you can kill a lot of subs at Manila but it seems to me that the POW and Repulse are much more valuable and the historical first day often puts an end to both of them. I would think that they are easily worth three or four old American BBs. Killing a bunch of American fleet subs would be significant if the Allied sub campaign actually worked but I don't see where American subs present much of a threat to a competent Japanese player.



Cribtop -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/23/2011 9:25:51 PM)

I think from the JFB perspective that the main draw is not hitting Manila vs PH but rather the flexibility to use the (*) convoys to invade alternate targets. The hit Manila school of thought is less effective with AE ASW in mid to late war.

Plus, even as a JFB it pains me to watch the fine ships of Force Z impale themselves on Netties. It always seemed a fair trade off to let the Allies keep Force Z in exchange for invading, say, Jolo instead of Legaspi on Turn 1.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 10:34:01 AM)

12/8/41

An action-packed day with some exciting moments for the Allies plus one event that has me pulling out my hair in self-recrimination.

Pearl Harbor: The KB moves to the northwest, where it tangles with a four-DD Allied TF that manages to score single 5" hits on Akagi, Soryu, and Shokaku. None of the other Allied TFs manage an intercept. After the Minneapolis TF returns to Pearl, it draws (and fends off with almost no damage) a sizeable strike from the KB. Another KB strike force hits a four-DD TF NW of Pearl, sinking two. None of the Kates involved in these strikes was armed with torpedoes, and there wasn't a second day of strikes against Pearl, much to my surprise. Alot of Allied subs are in the general vicinity of the KB, so I'll continue to try for an intercept. During the surface combat, Shokaku didn't show any smoke from yesterday's torpedo strike.

West Virginia: This has me pulling out my hair. BB West Virginia suffered moderate damage on 12/7, including 33 FLT that lowered her speed to 14 knots. I chose her as a good candidate to flee to the port to the east, along with a variety of other ships. But on the way her pumps failed and her FLT damage is in the mid 80s now. She's at the port two hexes east of Pearl, so I'm sending her back tomorrow. I am filled with self-loathing at this event considering there wasn't a KB strike (though there's a small chance Steve might return to Pearl tomorrow).

Lexington: After sending her Vindicator squadron to Midway, Lex took on the Marine F43 sqadron from Wake. Patrols have also reported a TF well to the NW of French Frigate Shoals (and very distant from the KB too). I assume this is a replenishment TF. Lex will steam NW to try for an intercept.

Enterprise: She was steaming SSW towards Tarawa, but Steve's troops got there already. Ent is too far away to make the chances of an intercept likely, so she'll probably circle around and make for either Pearl or the West Coast.

Saratoga: She's steaming north along the West Coast, bound first for Seattle and eventually for NoPac.

Philippines: The "flight of the bumblebees" seems to be going pretty well. DD Pope hit a mine (she was on sweeping duty with three MSW) and went under. The Japanese picked off a few ships here and there. But Boise (nearing Brunei) and Houston (well to the east of Luzon) seem to be in good shape. A port raid damaged an AD and AV, but the Japanese lost alot of Bettys over Manila. Only one landing so far, though SigInt showed several troops bound for Iba.

Rangoon: The AVG plus some Buffaloes ate up an unescorted raid by Sallys, downing at least ten.

Malaya: A hodge-podge of Allied bombers managed a few paint scratching hits on BB Kongo and a CA. SigInt reports an engineering regiment aboard a Maru bound for Mersing. Whether that TF is two days away or ten I have no idea, but Force Z augmented by two CL will steam midway between Pontianak and Mersing tomorrow to be in position in case an opportunity arises. Boise and three American DDs will arrive in the area in two or three days.

Mini-KB: A force reported as two CVE, but which may be Ryuho and Zuiho, moved north from yesterday's position and is now midway between Palau and Davao. This group didn't launch any strikes and didn't have many targets. I'm keeping an eye on it because I have a cruiser force at Ambon that I'd like to use to raid Babeldaob if no carriers are around.

Air Losses: For the day, Japan suffered more than 70 aircraft down to 60 for the Allies. That's a rare treat.



madflava13 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 12:20:39 PM)

Keep in mind there are fairly powerful CD units at Babeldaob if you do raid the place. Learned that lesson the hard way in a recent PBEM...



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 3:46:57 PM)

Would a surface combat raiding force run afoul of CD guns? I won't be bombarding; rather, I'll just be looking for ships. So I'm thinking CD guns won't be involved. Am I wrong?

On a separate note, I'm enjoying my increased efforts to catalogue, scrutinize, and utilize information. At the moment, I know the location of all six IJ fleet carriers, both CVLs (I think), four of ten BB, and eight of eighteen CA.

One of my current priorities is to keep tabs on that Mini-KB force between Davao and Palau so that wherever it aint, I can employ raider TFs.



paullus99 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 4:05:42 PM)

If you can manage a few decent speed bumps in the SRA, you could definitely screw up his timetable for any major ops. I know you want to pull out as many decent units as you can - but if you have the opportunity, a good stand here and there might be a good thing (especially to prepare for the Autovictory offensive - where ever he decides to go and when).



witpqs -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 4:06:15 PM)

If KB hung around Pearl it stands to reason that he intended to hit it again. As it did not happen, it also stands to reason that your TF and sub attacks plus KB's sorties against the TF's kept it from doing so.

As far as the BB at Lahaina (if that's the port you mean), I would leave it there until it's stabilized. Lahaina is level 3 and IIRC has a naval base force with naval support squads.



bradfordkay -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 4:12:29 PM)

Dan, about your idea of sending the Saratoga into the Aleutians... in winter aren't ops looses increased? With the sparse number of carrier a/c the USN has/receives in the very early going couldn't this end up being painful? Or maybe I am just overly conservative with my forces...



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 4:26:03 PM)

BradfordKay: I'm not sure I'm sending Saratoga to NoPac yet (though she is on her way to Seattle). I might wait until March 1, or I might send her up to Kodiak, park her, and perhaps stand down her squadrons. I only need her in the event Steve gets frisky and tries to do some snap invasions of unoccupied islands before I can garrison them.

witpqs: I got itchy fingers and I've sent her back to Pearl (I did that turn early this a.m., so it's too late now.) I think you're right about the KB - I believe Steve was intending to strike again. It will be interesting to see if he tries again tomorrow.

paullus: I haven't decided on my exact strategy in the DEI yet. The Allies will be making the usual stand at Singapore and Soerabaja (the latter augmented by garrisons from surrounding islands). I also intend to be pretty fisky with Force Z and other raiders.



John 3rd -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 4:50:22 PM)

Send Sara north. Yes--Ops losses will be higher--but you can REALLY bloody his nose if he makes an early move into the Aleutians. This is something I always fear at the start of a game since I like to get those barren, frozen rocks as early as possible. The is little-to-no chance of Japanese CVs being there to protect a landing force so you could get a cheap, clean victory.



Nemo121 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 6:25:38 PM)

Singapore and Soerabaja? Deathtraps both of them.

Stand in southern Sumatra. That's the fulcrum and, most unusually, for fulcrums a self-supporting fortress which won't require you to risk ships resupplying it. It produces 1,000 tons of supply per day. That's enough to keep 10 divisions in supply, build forts and keep your fighter force and a moderate number of torpedo bombers in supply. B-17 raids on Singapore will hurt him too.

Wasting all those troops in Java just doesn't make sense, they can't be supplied, the enemy can land anywhere along the coast and the terrain doesn't favour the defence. In Southern Sumatra you can concentrate your defensive forces at Telboetang (sic ) and the base to the west since only ships smaller than a CA can move upriver into Palembang. It is a massacre waiting to happen --- so long as you keep the enemy slowed up in Malaysia with a smart delaying action defence. I used 3 or 4 Bns to keep the enemy deployed for combat and prevent his tank units racing ahead and it worked quite nicely.

You'll take losses and probably still lose Palembang and Sumatra but you'll cause a lot more damage than just holing up in the deathtraps of Soerabaja and Singapore.



paullus99 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 6:29:42 PM)

I'd take Nemo's advice here - based on his experience, you could pull a real surprise move here.



John 3rd -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 7:19:43 PM)

Concur with Nemo. Make a determined stand in Southern Sumatra. Who cares about Singapore? If Palembang is seriously damaged by a solid defense the Japanese are severely handicapped.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 7:50:28 PM)

I hadn't thought of making a stand in Sumatra. I had "assumed" I would need political points to buy the troops in Java to move them to Sumatra, but perhaps that's not true? I think I can move them by air, but that's a long process. I don't think I can put them aboard vessels. I'll give it some thought.

I do think Singapore is pretty important, though, since it prevents the Japanese from moving on Port Blair and into the Bay of Bengal in a big way. As long as the Allies hold Singapore, India is relatively safe. There's a chance the Japanese could move through the Sunda Straits and south of Sumatra, but that's unlikely...and the Allies would see it coming.

Okay, time to give some thought to these options.



witpqs -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 8:01:35 PM)

Moving troops by air is pretty long, and it all depends upon how much time your opponent gives you. The biggest problem that I would anticipate these days is with a couple of AAR's where people have gotten 1,200 (my past AAR) or >2,400 AS (IIRC vettim89's AAR) into Palembang, is that IJ players would look to go there quickly to forestall "Fortress Palembang". x3 for the swamp with on-site supply, immune from BB bombardments - definitely 'the good terrain'.



paullus99 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 9:04:56 PM)

Actually, if you can hold Sumatra or at least create a major delay, you're going to cover the flanks of two of the autovictory area (India & Australia). Your opponent won't, in my opinion, want to put his forces in a position where you've got a base of operations against his flank. If he's forced to commit major forces to knock you out, they won't immediately be available for whatever he has planned.

Of course, if he jumps at Hawaii, it won't make a huge difference there - but it may give him the pause you need to stablize things.



Nemo121 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/24/2011 9:16:36 PM)

Air transport is a function of distance, time and committed resources.

ALL of the Dutch units in Java can be air-transported to Sumatra without costing any PP. You DO leave behind your heavy weapons though so that needs to be borne in mind. With that said if you dedicate ALL of your on-map transports and most of your patrol planes ( Catalinas etc ) then you can fairly rapidly transport troops. I was moving a regiment in 2 days once I had everything in place.

Transport all of the small stuff using your general purpose transports and commit your few heavy-lift capable transports ( you get some transport versions of heavy bombers in scenario 2 ) to ONLY transport whatever the Catalines and Dakotas can't transport. That is the most efficient use of those few heavy-lift transports.

So, basically two groups.
Group A moves the men, mortars and small stuff and then the dozen or so really heavy-lift planes you get make up group B and move the small artillery pieces.


I also bought out the US Fleet HQ from the Phillipines as well as the US Regiments. I flew out the infantry, let the guns get taken when Manilla fell and then rebuilt the regiments using the supply in Sumatra. Quite efficient really.




Singapore's importance is minimal.... You aren't looking at things correctly IMO.
WHy did Japan go to war? To gain resources.
What MUST Japan do if you are sitting with several divisions of troops on the base which holds the greatest concentration of those resources for which it went to war? It MUST invade.

Sure, Japan could take Singapore and sweep into India ignoring Palembang. If that happens though then two things will happen;
a) I will conclude that your opponent is a VERY poor strategist and is going to be defeated rather easily.

b) he will find himself in a situation where Palembang grows stronger and stronger and more and more difficult to take as he over-extends into India. This will either cause him to pull back from India to take Palembang with overwhelming force OR it will cause a huge diminution in the overall size of his economy, preventing him from expanding it to deal with the war of attrition you'll create.


Don't be so enamoured with the front-line. There are three things which are important for determining the correct strategy and they are, in order of importance....
1. logistics
2. logistics
3. logistics

Logistics have determined that Palembang is the fulcrum of the map and the game. in 41-42. Don't worry about some doomed glory-hound assault into India if your opponent hasn't taken Palembang first. Frankly if he does something so stupid I'd stop reading the AAR because I'd be utterly confident his economy would collapse in 6 months so there'd be no point reading more.



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