RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (Full Version)

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Cribtop -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/25/2011 10:57:32 PM)

Well done. Those AOs, loaded with fuel, will all burn up and sink. Now run away, sir. You could flee North and shut down air ops. Then if he gives chase even if he kills Lex she will force large ops losses on 90 exp pilots and maybe even escape in bad weather back to Seattle.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/25/2011 11:05:44 PM)

I took a quick look at the turn file. Here is an update:

The Chase: Lex is 10 hexes NW of Midway; the KB is seven hexes SE (she moved WNW this turn, which wasn't the optimum path to close with Lex). So, there's a 17-hex separation between Lex and the enemy. That's far enough where I doubt Steve will give chase - too far, too much ocean to disappear into, and he'll be looking both at his fuel situation and Shokaku's damage. The biggest worry for Lex now is probably submarines.

Marblehead: She's in port at Balikpan but reduced to 1 knot. Mini-KB isn't very far away. Steve can do a port strike if he wants to finish off the CL.

I forgot to mention: The British MTB TF late of Hong Kong tangled with a transport TF off Luzon and did good work, sinking an xAK and DMS. A Japanese sub (I-23) claimed TK Gulf Hawk well north of Pearl.

Palembang: I've begun a "mighty" airlift of troops to Palembang, but thus far have just 48 AV at the base. That's poor, so I've got work to do.

Wake Repurcussions: The sudden loss of Wake caught a PBY squadron there (staging from Pearl to Luzon). That hurts. Now I'll have to take a more convoluted route. I need these squadrons in the Philippines and DEI to help with troop transport.

Oiler Repurcussions: The devastation of the Japanese oilers should reduce the likelihood of any far-reaching raids like the West Coast. It may even impact on Steve's ability to mount a campaign for India deeply into SoPac. Need to think that over.

Overall, it was a stupendously successful day for the Allies.



paullus99 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/25/2011 11:15:13 PM)

Congratulations - that's a pretty bold move that paid off for you, good luck getting Lex out of danger.

I will say, these small victories add up over time - the more you can force him to bleed now, it will effect his morale moving forward & perhaps make him a lot more cautious. This may just give you the time to get additional resources in place for the next big push on his part.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/25/2011 11:18:53 PM)

Wow..that is a serious smackdown. I had no idea there would be 8 AO's. Well done.


BTW, the air support personel at Wake can be gotten off pretty easily to Midway by PBY if you have pulled out the aircraft. (oops...never mind) [:)]



Cap Mandrake -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/25/2011 11:21:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Overall, it was a stupendously successful day for the Allies.


Ain't that the truth.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 2:29:43 PM)

Orders for 12/11/41

Lexington: Steam northeast towards Dutchl Harbor. I don't think the KB will give chase, but the patrol squadron at Midway should altert me to the KB's position for at least one more day.

Aleutians: Lex's current position should slow Japanese expansion plans for the unoccupied Aleutians, assuming Steve had such plans. He'll probably want carrier cover (or else he'll rely on fast transport. I have seven DDs on the way to Kodiak, so in about a week the Allies will have a surface combat deterent up here. I want to ship one of the Canadian brigades over to Attu, but I am woefully short of political points. I've used some to "buy" the SEAC command at Manila, to buy at least one commonwealth unit in Malaya (I forget which one), and to swap out the commander of the Louisville/Adelaide TF at Rabaul (that paid off handsomely, as the very next turn that TF was engaged in the very successful combat, as reported for the 12/10 turn).

DEI: SigInt reports a variety of units aboard Marus bound for Mersing. I think the invasion TF is drawing close. I also don't think Brad has LBA torp capability anywhere close. The units that took Kuantan a day ago didn't include a base force (though he could be landing one right now). The units that took Kota Bharu only included a regular base force. So I'm going to risk Force Z, augmented by Boise, two CL, and another DD. They will steam to a point seven hexes SE of Mersing to be in a position to strike the day after tomorrow if the enemy should arrive.



Nemo121 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 4:08:03 PM)

Why would this prevent your opponent from operating in the Indian Ocean?

He can still do so quite easily with 12 knot AOs. The only significant benefit for fast oilers lie in:
1. Racing away from enemy CVs quickly
2. Supporting rapid displacements should he fail to stockpile oil in forward bases to support such redeployments.

Seriously, don't get cocky and think this was a good decision. You risked a strategic asset, killed some oilers which aren't worth nearly as much as you seem to think ( If your opponent had external SLOCs only you'd be right BUT he has the internal SLOCs and so doesn't strictly need fast oilers ) and are going to be tempted by the same faulty logic again and again - something which I would certainly use against you to bait traps... We'll have to see if Chez is as devious.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 6:17:42 PM)

Ah, Nemo is wrong on two accounts. I'm not getting cocky, and this was a good decision.

Why was it a good decision?  Because Lex's route represented the best chance of avoiding the KB.  Had I choseb to go NE, E, SE, or E, the chances of bumping into the KB would have been much greater (as born out by the actual course taken by the KB0.  Second, only if the enemy ships took a course and speed that best suited my own route of escape would there be a clash.  Honestly, I had a hunch they might do just that, but knocking off oilers was secondary to getting Lexington out of harm's way.  Thirdly, there are times when you do risk a strategic asset on "lesser" targets.  (Doolittle Raid, anyone?)  I chose to do so here only because I was getting very good information as to speeds and courses of the KB and the oilers.  Thus I was able to set up a solution that minimized my risk.  So this was a good decision.

As for being "cocky," I won't mistake pleasure at a noteworthy early Allied victory for some feeling that I am leading a charmed life, have some superior ability (I don't), or that I can take these kinds of chances frequently.  I know the odds would catch up to me if I get overly frisky.

But there are times when a player, based upon solid information, or intuition gained through experience or a feel for one's opponent, can take a calculated risk. 



modrow -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 6:37:10 PM)

Canoe,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
But there are times when a player, based upon solid information, or intuition gained through experience or a feel for one's opponent, can take a calculated risk. 


like J.E.B. Stuart at Gettysburg, you mean?

Hartwig



witpqs -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 6:38:33 PM)

I agree. Further, the loss of fast tankers that Japan either will not replace or will not replace soon (I don't know the IJ OOB that well) has to have an impact. I acknowledge Nemo's point that it would/will not stop various possible operations and that other refueling options are and/or will be there, but nice fast tankers are a good measure better than slow tankers. Taking them out surely must constitute a pain in the ass for EHQ. At this stage of the contest a meaningful part of your 'job' is to screw up EHQ's plans, even without knowing what are those plans. That group of fast tankers was a strategic asset for the IJ because it could move quickly with KB and get out of harms way quickly while KB went hunting or raiding. I say "was" based on the damage you reported - those all sound like ships sinking to me.

Good show!



Nemo121 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 7:02:04 PM)

Canoerebel,

With all due respect it was not a good decision in the sense that getting those AOs was worth the risk. It was also not your safest course. SW was your safest course. More "good decisions" like this will see you lose unnecessary carriers and end up delaying significant offensives in late 42/43 due to lack of CVs.

Risk-taking is very much part of the game and life and no-one who has ever read one of my AARs would ever accuse me of being shy of risks. However good play is all about matching the risk to the gain. Here you risked more than you stood to gain.


As to intuition. It is too early for you to know you opponent well. As to good info - you weren't sure where KB was. As to Doolittle, that wasn't a strategic assets wasted on a target of no value. The target of Doolittle was hugely important strategically, namely, the morale and belief of the American people. To gain such improved morale etc it was worth risking a strategic asset. In AE where civilian morale doesn't play a role Doolittle wouldn't be worth it but in real life maintaining national morale/ commitment is vital to achieving national policy objectives ( failure leads to things like Vietnam where one wins all the battles in the enemy country but loses the war in one's own living rooms.).

I don't believe the thing risked was worth the possible gains and I worry if this continued you'd pay a large price over the next six months. That's the spirit in which I offered the input. I'll cease and desist now though.



desicat -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 7:44:04 PM)

Nemo, You are correct on the Doolittle aspect - not applicable to this game. I disagree with the rest of your analysis. The Lex was in a tough position and CR had to decide what course of sail she took would give the best results. There was no guarantee that a SW direction would have allowed her to escape danger, but if CR chose that direction there was a 100% chance that he would miss the AO's By selecting the direction he did he gave his important strategic asset what he considered the best escape avenue and allowed him to pick off a target of opportunity.

Japan can only "win" via auto victory. Auto victory for Japan is tied to a tight time line, anything that disrupts the time line is worth CR's efforts (especially in Scenario 2). Would CR trade the Lex for 8 AO's? Of course not, but a simple risk reward evaluation of the situation agrees with CR's decision. The Lex was at risk no matter what course she took, only one course offered a potential reward. Think McClusky deciding to follow the wake of the DD Arashi after being lost at Midway, he was already committed and took the route that seemed the most promising.



crsutton -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 8:42:43 PM)

Sweet, you pulled one off! However, he really should not have grouped so many unprotected oilers out there unprotected. Losing 8 oilers is a big deal, so I would call it a major victory. Now run like hell......



paullus99 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 8:44:07 PM)

Every little bit helps at this point. I think we can trust Canoerebel not to base the rest of his strategy on this one small victory - if anything, perhaps it put a bit of the "fear of god" into his opponent & make him just a little bit more timid the next time around. Given the situation, he made a decision, based on available information, that allowed him to damage his opponent's strategic assets, while also preserving a carrier for future use.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 9:39:54 PM)

Hey, Nemo, I hope you will continue to offer your suggestions and insight. I acknowledge you have more experience than I do and a deeper knowledge of the game and figuring out what's in an opponent's mind. I always consider your comments/suggestions/criticisms, but sometimes I will disagree, as I do in this instance. I hope occasioonal opposition doesn't make you feel unwelcome here.

P.S. I think the Doolittle Raid actually is pretty appropriate. In both real life and in the game, the Allies took a licking and it would be quite some time before they would/will be able to take the offensive. So both needed/need a morale boost. In both instances the move was a calculated risk (though I think mine was arguably the lesser of the two). In both cases the risk paid off. And in real life the results included unforseen (at the time) reactins by the Japanse that hurt them. I think this could have serious ramifications in the game - perhaps it stops Steve from conducting deep carriers raids; perhaps it causes him to slow an occupation in the Aleutians unitl he can get carrier cover; perhaps it makes him cover his bases more carefully all over the Pacific (especially given what happened at Rabaul and Tulagi); and perhaps it impacts on his ability to do something later in the game. i don't know any of that at this point, but my hunch is that this battle will pay some dividends.



SuluSea -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 10:00:39 PM)

Good job on getting those AOs Rebel. I didn't think you'd be able to pull it off while I was reading the other night.

This is one of my favorite early war moves for the allied side, I've come up empty every time I used it.



bradfordkay -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 10:12:59 PM)

"Japan can only "win" via auto victory."

I completely disagree. In fact, it is the allies who can only "win" via auto victory.

Rule 17.1.1 Victory after 1945

If the game ends in 1946 when the scenario expires (as opposed to ending due to an Automatic Victory) the victory level moves two levels in the Japanese players favor.



Thus, if the Japanese player can prevent an allied auto victory then the best the allied player can hope for is a draw.



Canoerebel -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/26/2011 11:27:43 PM)

12/11/42
 
CenPac:  To my surprise, the KB disappeared!  Had it proceeded in any kind of westerly direction, the PBYs at Midway should have picked it up.  It might have gone south, but I'm assuming it moved north in hot pursuit of Lexington.  My carrier has a big lead, but I've ordered her to max speed and to make for Dutch Harbor.  Three DDs up near Dutch will fan out to the south and west, and in a few days will offer a picket line that should permit Lex to turn east and make for the mainland.

SWPac:  Part of two Naval Guards landed at Rabaul; probably not enough to take the base without some help.

Philippine Sea:  It looks like two CVL/CVE TFs are in this area - one south of Davao, one near Palau.  These ships have been launching Kates and I've had good reports on them for days. That should account for all the CLVs and some of the CVEs, which is important as you'll see in a moment.  The Japanese just took Davao and SigInt reports an amphibious force bound for Ternate.  I have a CL/DD force at Sorong that I may send to Babeldaob in a few days.

South China Sea:  Mouse over of an IJ TF nearing the southern part of the South China Sea shows several CVL but a total of just seven auxilliary aircraft.  Given the known locations of the KB and the strongly suspected locations of the CVLs and some CVEs, I don't think this is much.  Perhaps a CVE, or maybe just a CS or two.  I want Force Z in position in case this TF moves on Mersing or even Palembang, but I don't want to get caught in an ambush.  I'm going to position Force Z near Pontianak.  It will be close enough to undergo aerial attack if this TF has Vals or Kates, but I just don't think that's likely.  I also don't think it would carry enough to pack a lethal punch.  Positioning Forze Z here will give me one more day to evaluate the makeup of the TF and it's intended destination.  There's quite a few Allied ships of various kinds in the region, all fleeing Manila, etc., so there should be a fair bit of "noise" on the enemy radar screens.

Palembang:  The AV of the Allied garrison is up to 71 and I've diverted more squadrons to lend a hand.  It may be over 100 tomorrow.  Is Nemo the creator of the Fortress Palembang strategy?  I think so, but I want to give credit where credit is due.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 12:00:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/11/42
 
CenPac:  To my surprise, the KB disappeared!  Had it proceeded in any kind of westerly direction, the PBYs at Midway should have picked it up.  It might have gone south, but I'm assuming it moved north in hot pursuit of Lexington.  My carrier has a big lead, but I've ordered her to max speed and to make for Dutch Harbor.  Three DDs up near Dutch will fan out to the south and west, and in a few days will offer a picket line that should permit Lex to turn east and make for the mainland.



Question: are you both playing the last official patch? IOW, none of the betas? If you had a beta your search arcs would be working as advertised (and you wouldn't need to pull out cadres from the PI.)

I'm playing the very last unofficial beta which Michael said don't play in any game you care about, and it's rock solid. I think either of the two previous betas are about as good, except for a few tiny quirks you don't use such as auto-convoy.

You might consider e-mailing your O and seeing if he wants to go beta while it's early.

Just a sugg.



princep01 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 2:56:17 AM)

Having read many of Nemo's discourses over a variety of AARs and issues, I find I typically am in agreement with his assessments. However, on the issue of the decision to attack the AO TF with the Lady Lex, I do not agree. I see it as a bold, but not reckless move. The loss of the AOs is, in and of itself, not shattering. However, I think Nemo ignores the potential pschological effect this loss can have on an opponent. In Scenario 2 games, it is logical to assume that JJ is going for an auto victory. This likely will require a rapid advance and one that might be based on "long-reaches", followed by backfill. Those long reaches often require a large, mobile gas station. That has been, at least, partially compromised. This, in turn, can cause a confident JJ (on December 7) to become more cautious and alter ambitious plans, thus abandoning the queat for the auto victory.

I agree with Canoe's move in this case. To scurry SW was indeed the safest course, but even that was not foolproof. Thus, the bold move was sustainable and, in hindsight, did prove to be a productive gamble. Nice cache of VPs too:). Nicely done, Canoe



paullus99 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 12:36:21 PM)

If he's sent the entire KB after Lex (which I doubt, probably still heading back to the barn for re-supply), it would be a huge waste of resources. He'd be running up SYS damage for almost no reason & the chances of actually catching her are pretty slim.

Though, if he is running pell-mell into the Northern Pacific with his greatest strategic asset, it says a lot about his mind-set.



SuluSea -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 2:21:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

If he's sent the entire KB after Lex (which I doubt, probably still heading back to the barn for re-supply), it would be a huge waste of resources. He'd be running up SYS damage for almost no reason & the chances of actually catching her are pretty slim.

Though, if he is running pell-mell into the Northern Pacific with his greatest strategic asset, it says a lot about his mind-set.



I have to agree Paullus , CR should get some WC AOs moving up to NorPac if he hasn't already done so incase he has to make some full speed runs and top off the bunkers on those small legged DDs. If Chez decides to chase Lex that slows down pace of operations in the south seas for the time being.

I guess theres a chance he could split up the KB for a couple three weeks, anybody?




Nemo121 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 3:04:21 PM)

No worries CR, just stating that I won't flog a dead horse.

I suppose my view of this comes from a very interesting book on knife and swordfighting in Europe in the Middle Ages ( 15th Century to 18th Century or so ) which I read which translated actual manuals from the time. One of the key things they taught was not to take advantage of obvious errors an opponent made early on as:

a) a poor opponent could be relied upon to make similar mistakes time and again and you could take advantage of them on the 3rd or 4th occasion to deliver a killing blow.

b) an excellent opponent would probably just be showing you weakness in order to gauge your thinking and aggressiveness in order to learn what he needed to show you to get a specific reaction from you in the future which, since he was expecting it, would leave you open to a killing blow.

Were I ChezDaJez I would:
a) not have left the AOs uncovered like that - you've learnt something about how sloppy he is. That's good intel for you.

b) have only shown them to you if they were part of a trap - again, you've learnt from him that he doesn't have a two-step mind, rather he has a one-step mind and is much more likely to simply beef up his escorts to fight off such raids in future rather than use such honeypots to dish out disproportionate levels of damage. You'll have to test it more but if you notice he is beefing up escorts in order to fight off your raids then you have learnt something of major value to you in terms of being able to cause him to commit his forces unwisely ( something I managed to get 1EyedJacks to do a lot of in my game vs him with respect to his convoys ).

c) If I had left them uncovered and had not anticipated your move I would now know that you were likely to attack targets of opportunity. That would lead me to think that if I could "manufacture" such targets of opportunity I could lead you to engage them on YOUR terms using YOUR initiative to waltz into my trap. Again though ChezDaJez seems to be a one-step thinker so that will work against him forming such a logic chain.

Overall you may get away with it. It just sticks in my craw to give such important information about one's thinking style and relative judgement of risks/benefits away for just a few AOs. That is cheaply-won knowledge for Japan. Fortunately it looks like ChezDaJez won't take advantage of it but others would.


As to the quest for autovictory... No, I think that's already lost. If you look at the first day strikes, lack of second day strikes combined with the uncovering of the AOs ( I assumed the lack of second day strikes was to cover for the detaching of 2 or more CVs for a sprint to cover "bait AOs" --- but obviously couldn't say so here until the turn played out.... I have used precisely such a gambit and sunk Allied CVs in return for a single "bait AO and DD" before returning to pound PH with 4 CVs on Day 3 and 6 on Day 4... so I was against it because it closely matched the setup of a trap I've laid to great success before.... but it wouldn't have been fair to outline the reasons WHY I was against it so much until it played out ) and the lack of trap in that plan I think it is fair to say Canoerebal has the measure of ChezDaJez. The mismatch is far less than with QBall who simply never formulated a coherent strategic layer plan but Japan can't go on a strength vs strength match even in Scenario 2. Chez will make advances but he doesn't appear sneaky and that will limit his ability to make up for materiel mismatches. Of course maybe he is ueber-sneaky and this is just an uncharacteristic error but it does appear that neither player here is camouflaging their true intentions at the beginning of the game and is playing as they intend to continue playing.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 3:31:26 PM)

I was one of the naysayers for the same reasons Nemo mentioned, but it was my fear that Canoe was going to charge by Midway and enage the AO's within potential range of the KB...it wasn't so crazy to go North along the planned escape route and sink the AO's if they showed up...which is what happened.


On this notion of the disclosure of a playing style early in the game...that might be true if he were powerless to change future behavior. This is a long game and it is certainly possible to modify one's behavior to adapt the playing style of one's opponent.

Re. the escape of Lex, the possible pursuit of Lexington certainly seems like it might work. Given the value of the prize, putting off some operation for 7-10 d seems worth it. Chez can detach his shorter legged DD's and head directly for the Dutch Harbor/Anchorage. He can even divide into two groups with some risk to increase his chance of detection.

Re. his previous incaution, yes. There is no way the AO's should have been that close to Midway without the carriers. Just because midway doesnt have bombers on Dec 7 doesnt ean they wont be there on Dec 10


BTW, kibitizing is almost as fun as playing the game during a big battle. [:)]



desicat -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 4:00:55 PM)

...and sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.



Nemo121 -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 4:05:08 PM)

Cap,

Aye, you are right about the possibility of changing playing styles... I suppose my view is that someone who doesn't have the guile to disguise their play style early on is hardly likely to make a successful change later on. Not always true of course but a good rule of thumb IMO.

Desicat,
Aye, but sometimes it is no harm to look deeper so that you can tell if it is more than a cigar.

The thing about habits is that if you aren't used to looking deeper then you don't do so as a habit and so you only ever see the surface of the thing, blind to what may lie underneath. If you are alive to the possibility that there is more then you can still look beneath the surface, see nothing and say, "It is what it seems." whilst also being certain not to be caught out if it is not what it seems.

You don't spot traps unless you check for them. I'm not sure they were being checked for here, hence I spoke.



desicat -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 4:26:42 PM)

Nemo, I will say that since Chez is former military he may subconsciously not view assets as expendable for "traps". That may or may not be useful for CR's future plans.



John 3rd -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 4:27:05 PM)

If I was the Japanese player I would be appalled losing those AOs. They are big and fast and cannot be replaced. You are correct in that this will limit his long-range threat ability.

Your move was somewhat atypical of your style Dan and this is why I REALLY thought it was an excellent choice/risk. It was highly risky and you won the roll of the dice for little cost. Gaining a victory like this early in the conflict is a real downer for the Japanese player.

EXCELLENT work!

Huzzah.



bradfordkay -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 6:06:15 PM)

Nemo, I think that you are reading a little too much into this. I have been playing against Chez for several years now. He does occasionally set very wicked traps. Other times his operations are very straight forward. Don't get caught in the trap of thinking that you can judge a player's style from the first week of gameplay; that would be a huge mistake IMO. 



John 3rd -> RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! (2/27/2011 6:10:43 PM)

Concur.



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